When it comes to this World Series, determining which team is the favorite and which is the underdog is a fairly easy exercise. The Blue Jays won one more game during the regular season than the Dodgers did, but Dodger Blue has tended to be strongly favored over Labatt Blue. The Vegas odds for the Dodgers opened at -215, implying a better than two-in-three chance of a Los Angeles championship; per the research of CakesRacer522 on Reddit, only the 2019 Astros started off with better odds. For our part, the FanGraphs World Series odds were nearly as lopsided going into the series, projecting a 66.3% chance of the Dodgers prevailing. The ZiPS projections weren’t quite as bullish, but the computer’s 60/40 split isn’t quiet a coin flip. The Dodgers also spend money like they have their own currency, and won the World Series in both 2020 and 2024, while the Jays, though themselves a top five payroll team, haven’t sniffed the Fall Classic in more than 30 years.

So are the Blue Jays doomed? That’s a preposterous question in a game as coin-flippy as baseball tends to be; after all, if the Dodgers were fated to win, the projections would sit at 100%, not 68% or 66% or 60%. That said, if the Blue Jays do come out ahead, it’ll be an especially big plaudit, because they’re not just facing the 2025 Dodgers, they’re facing the best version of the 2025 Dodgers.

As is their wont, the Dodgers suffered more than their share of injuries in 2025. As of mid-September, I had them losing the third-most potential wins due to injury in the majors. In 2024, they were the “champions” of this sad category. Last winter, the Dodgers spent nearly $400 million on free agents, most notably Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernández, and Tanner Scott, after having signed Shohei Ohtani the prior offseason. It fueled some pretty crazy projections before the 2025 season, such that the 98 wins forecast by ZiPS actually got a lot of pushback for being too negative about the team’s hopes. But as I said before Opening Day, the Dodgers are so good that they’re at the point where signing great players comes with increasingly diminishing returns, because those guys are covering for a good number of plate appearances and innings that were already much better than replacement level. Indeed, the team’s biggest improvement — at least as ZiPS saw it — was in making their floor absurdly high rather than their ceiling. Read the rest of this entry »

Hey kids, there’s a substitute teacher today! But I’ve been given the lesson plan, so we’re going to go ahead and talk about Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy — no spending the day watching old episodes of The Simpsons that I have on VHS, even though this classroom still has a functioning VCR for some reason. As your normal teacher, Mr. Clemens, would do, I’m going to grade Murphy based on his overall performance in the playoffs, rather than scrutinize every single micro decision made. If you’d like to see Mr. Clemens’ reports on the managers who lost in the various Division Series, you can find the American League write-up here, and the National League write-up here.

I find the Brewers fascinating, both because I’ve always appreciated them having the best logo in sports, and because I’m really bad at projecting them. While I had a better time of it than some others did this year, and at least only had them two wins short of the Cubs, the preseason ZiPS standings have repeatedly underestimated the Brew Crew. I’d love to be able to directly blame the computer for this phenomena, but ZiPS has actually done a solid job of projecting individual Milwaukee players. The problem is that when it comes time to guess exactly who will see the field, I’ve been giving them short shrift. In each of the last five seasons, if I had known precisely who would end up getting playing time, the preseason projections would have gone up by an average of just under four wins per year. It’s not simply that they’ve been healthier than expected, either; the Brewers tend to promote interesting players at a much faster pace than I expect them to, are very quick to understand what’s not working, and deploy role players extremely effectively.

OK, the bell rang, so let’s get going. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the first lessons we learn about life is that it’s rarely fair. Neither the Seattle Mariners nor the Toronto Blue Jays are historical doormats, but both franchises have been plagued over the last three decades by a lack of postseason success, if they reached the playoffs at all.

After the Jays won the 1993 World Series, it was 22 years until they made another postseason. Toronto has a lot of recent October appearances, but finished last in the AL East in 2024 and came into the 2025 playoffs after being swept out of the wild card round in its last three opportunities, including by Seattle in 2022. Aside from that series three years ago, the Mariners have had it even worse: They’ve never won a World Series — never even played in one — and their 2022 postseason appearance snapped a 21-year playoff drought. So the 2025 ALCS is a pretty big deal for both teams, as someone is going to face the Brewers or Dodgers for baseball’s championship. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs stayed alive in the National League Division Series on Wednesday, narrowly beating the Brewers in a 4-3 Game 3 squeaker. Neither starting pitcher went long, with both teams needing to go relatively deep into their bullpens to finish out the contest; a combined 10 relievers were used.

Carlos Zambrano threw out the ceremonial first pitch, 13 years after his final game in the majors — Big Z’s former teammate, Rich Hill, appeared for the Royals in 2025 and is older than him — but things got off to an inauspicious start for the Cubs after that, as a lazy curve from starter Jameson Taillon was far less lazily lashed down the first base line into right field for a Christian Yelich double. After a Jackson Chourio groundout, Taillon lost the strike zone a bit, walking Brice Turang to put runners on first and second for William Contreras. Contreras hit an infield single to load the bases. Of course, that’s burying the lede a bit, but you couldn’t see that I was making the air quotes gesture with my fingers while I was writing that sentence. The “infield single” was anything but; it was a popup on the infield that Michael Busch lost in the sun while his sunglasses remained unused on his cap. Both Carson Kelly and Nico Hoerner ran over, but they weren’t in time to salvage the play. Dansby Swanson ran over as well, which became a problem when Kelly picked up the ball but had nobody to actually throw to for an attempted forceout of Turang. Read the rest of this entry »

At this time last year, the Blue Jays faced some serious uncertainty. They’d just finished last in the AL East, and they had only one more season guaranteed with both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette on their roster. The future became even murkier during the winter, when the Yankees and Red Sox were both beefing up, the Orioles were still expected to be good, and the Rays were, well, the Rays. Both Guerrero and Bichette became the subject of trade rumors; really, there were questions about whether or not Toronto would just blow it all up.

Oh, how things have changed. In early April, the Jays extended Vladito through the end of the next decade, and then they caught fire. And now, one year after coming in last, they finished tied with the Yankees for the best record in the American League and took the division because they won the season series between the two teams. For that reason, Toronto hosted Game 1 of the Division Series against the New York on Saturday, and after the Jays bludgeoned the Yankees, 10-1, maybe it’s the boys from the Bronx who should be feeling a bit of self doubt.

As a franchise, the Yankees have played 441 postseason games; this loss ranks as one of their worst playoff humiliations ever:

Read the rest of this entry »

Meat + bread + mess are one of the most iconic food combinations known to humanity. Two of my favorites are classics of Philadelphia and Los Angeles, wonderful amalgamations that make a sloppy mess of whiz or jus go down my chin and, too often, the shirt that I’m wearing. I’ve always lived in the eastern part of the United States, so I have more practical experience with cheesesteak locations (I’m partial to Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork). But the French dip is wonderful as well — I have at least gotten to try it at Philippe the Original — and I also love its cousin, quesabirria. Whichever you prefer, you’re choosing from two of the heavy hitters in good, casual food.

I’m not talking about deliciousness because I’m hungry, even though it’s almost dinnertime, but because the Dodgers and Phillies play a similar role in baseball: They’re not everyone’s favorites, but they’re two of the most successful franchises of the last 15 years, and if you’re an NL team, there’s a good chance you’ll have to go through one or both of these teams en route to a championship. Read the rest of this entry »

Nobody likes a quick exit from the playoffs, but a brief October cameo would have been an especial humiliation for the 2025 Detroit Tigers. After spending much of the season fighting for the league’s best record, and collecting a 14-game divisional lead at one point, the Tigers went nine games under .500 in the second half. Not only was that bad enough to throw away the division title, Detroit nearly missed the playoffs altogether, only squeezing in thanks to a tiebreak advantage over the Houston Astros. So Thursday’s 6-3 win in Game 3 of the Wild Card series must come as a relief, especially given the measure of revenge that comes with beating Cleveland.

Jack Flaherty got the call in Game 3, his first playoff appearance for the Tigers. There had to be some trepidation about Flaherty, given that his last quality start came back in mid-August. While his 4 2/3 innings of work were short on highlight moments, and he allowed three 100 mph liners that fortunately found leather instead of grass or dirt, Flaherty confined the hits to two-out rallies, leaving Cleveland little room for any bunting or other little-ball shenanigans until the fourth inning. A George Valera double and a José Ramírez single got the Guardians on the board in the fourth, but the danger ended when J-Ram was caught stealing and Chase DeLauter hit into a double play. Flaherty did at least avoid angering the cruel deity that governs predictions; last offseason, he famously said that the Tigers would have defeated the Guardians in last year’s playoffs if he hadn’t been traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: “Give me an introduction message for a Dan Szymborski FanGraphs chat that sounds like it’s from a deranged person with limited connection with reality and an obsession with history who also really really like FanGraphs”

12:02

Dan Szymborski: “Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your WAR calculations! I rise today in this digital amphitheater not as Caesar, not as Napoleon, but as a humble pilgrim trudging across the blood-soaked battlefields of history in pursuit of a single shining truth: FanGraphs is the Rosetta Stone of civilization. When Rome collapsed, did the barbarians have wOBA? No. When Napoleon marched on Moscow, did he consult ZiPS projections? He did not — and look what happened! Yet here we stand in the Year of Our Lord 2025, blessed to witness the holy gospel of OBP+, xFIP, and Dan Szymborski’s inscrutable oracles. I have not slept in three nights, my parakeet now knows what BABIP is, and I carved the FanGraphs logo into the oak desk of my landlord while screaming about FIP- minus. Brothers, sisters, eternal strugglers against the darkness of ignorance, we gather not to talk of weather or bread, but of spin rates and aging curves, of regression to the mean and the cruel march of time itself! History collapses into the present momen

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I have not found this. It’s possible simply that they’re more exploitable, that the general declines makes them more obviously platoonable than a similarly talented player with small splits

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Like the 350/500 guy an ages to be a 330/450 guy and still hits 310/430 and 340/460

12:04

Dan Szymborski: But maybe the PLATOONY 350/500 guys is suddenly now a 280/350 and 390/550 guy where he once awas a 300/400 and 420/600 guy

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As much as I love coverage of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, or Cal Raleigh, talking about the absolute best players in the league can be a bit too rich, like trying to eat an entire plate of fudge in a single sitting. Since so many baseball arguments revolve around who is going to win an award or who is the best at something, I feel there’s a bit of a weird tendency for the next tier of players — those who are having great seasons but are likely to fall short of winning a major award, even if they end up as finalists — to get surprisingly little coverage relative to the big dogs (or dumpers). So, in the interest of improving the coverage-to-awesomeness ratio for baseball’s next-best guys, here are the most interesting players on the edges the awards conversation. I’ll also throw in some updated long-term projections because, as Chekhov’s projection system states, if ZiPS is on the mantle in the first act, it should be run at some point. Stats are through Wednesday’s games unless otherwise noted. Read the rest of this entry »

Major League Baseball’s injured list is the sport’s unofficial 31st team, one that never makes the playoffs but always plays spoiler. In the last week, 22 players were placed on the IL. The biggest name was Will Smith, who late last week landed on the IL with a bone bruise on his hand, courtesy of a rather rude foul tip off the bat of Nick Gonzales.

The Dodgers aren’t known for having a great deal of injury luck, but as injuries go, Smith’s appears to be far less consequential than it could have been. Smith’s tests revealed no fracture, minimizing the amount of time he’s expected to miss. The 30-year-old catcher is having the best offensive season of his career, with a .296/.404/.497 slash line and a 153 wRC+, all except slugging percentage representing career bests. He has played in fewer games than usual, but that’s largely due to the team’s roster construction; he started 39 games at designated hitter in 2022-2023, but Shohei Ohtani’s presence now makes it far more difficult to sneak him into the lineup here when he has a day off of catching. The injury would be a big deal… if it were a big deal, but Smith could return as early as this upcoming weekend. It could have been even sooner, but Smith’s start last Tuesday after missing five games meant that the retroactive IL date was later than September 3, when the Gonzales foul tip occurred.

Smith and the Dodgers seem to have gotten lucky, but the Astros and Yordan Alvarez may not see the same fortune. Less than a month after returning from a broken hand that had cost him more than half of the 2025 season, Alvarez turned his ankle while touching home plate in an awkward fashion that is only appropriate on your Stretch Armstrong doll. He has not yet been placed on the IL, and the exact consequences are still to be determined, but it’s all but official that he is going to miss some time. We’ll know more after his MRI on Tuesday. A serious injury to Alvarez could imperil the Astros in their tight playoff race and beyond if they make it to October.

Alvarez has already spent 115 days on the IL this season, and the Astros have certainly felt his absence, but how do their losses this season compare to those of other teams this season? More broadly, which team has lost the most production to the injured list? If you ask the fans of an underperforming team, the near-unanimous answer will be “us,” but I think we can do better than that! Read the rest of this entry »