We all like to think that the first round of the amateur draft is a can’t miss event, but more often than not picks in the first round have a fairly high failure – or at least disappointment – rate. A year ago, two such examples would have included Pittsburgh’s Neil Walker and Toronto’s David Purcey. In the past few months, though, both players have shown that they just might provide some value to the organizations that drafted them – albeit a few years later than projected.

Purcey was taken 16th overall in the 2004 draft and Toronto passed on the likes of Philip Hughes, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street, Yovani Gallardo, and Dustin Pedroia. The Jays gave the hard-throwing lefty out of the University of Oklahoma $1.6 million to sign as a 22-year-old pitcher that was expected to move fairly quickly. However, Purcey hit a wall in double-A. His inconsistent command led to too many base runners via the walk and the hit. He was also known as a one-pitch pitcher who had little desire to improve his secondary pitches, which allowed even minor league hitters to time and jump all over his above-average heater.

The real break for Purcey came with the move to the bullpen at the beginning of 2010 – a move that had been talked about pretty much since he entered pro ball. He’s now all but abandoned his change-up and favors his fastball about 80% of the time, while mixing in the occasional slider and curveball to keep MLB hitters on their toes. Purcey has seen his fastball command improve significantly and has a positive pitch type value on his heater for the first time in the Majors (over parts of three seasons). He’s still an extreme flyball pitcher but his line-drive rate is down noticeably and batters are hitting just .169 against him (.200 BABIP). His 21 games at the MLB level in 2010 is obviously a small sample size but the 28-year-old hurler has finally started to move in the right direction to carve out a respectable MLB career as a reliever.

Walker was also taken in the 2004 draft – 11th overall out of a Pennsylvania high school, making him a marketing agent’s dream for the Pirates organization. Jered Weaver, Billy Butler and Stephen Drew were taken in the draft right after him. Unfortunately, Walker’s career was dealt a blow when the former catcher had to move out from behind the dish to third base when his defense failed to develop. Although he hit double-digit homers four times in his minor-league career, Walker lacked the prototypical power for third base and he seemed to wilt under the pressure of his new position by posting a .694 OPS at triple-A in 2008. He began to make improvements, though, when the organization switched him to a super-utility role where he played all over the diamond. His OPS jumped to .791 in ’09 and then to .951 in 2010 (43 games).

Called up to Pittsburgh in late May, Walker has continued his hot hitting. He currently has a triple-slash line of .302/.342/.453 in 225 at-bats while playing mostly second base. Walker is showing good pop for a second baseman with an ISO rate of .151. On the down side, his defense has been pretty mediocre, according to UZR, which has him at -7.2 at the keystone. The rating is due mostly to poor range, which is not surprising for a former-catcher-turned-third-baseman-turned-second-baseman. If Walker keeps hitting as well as he has (although it would be nice to see an improvement on the 5.3% walk rate), Pittsburgh may be willing to live with the defensive deficiencies. If not, though, Walker could end up back in a utility role.

It’s fairly clearly that neither Purcey nor Walker will ever perform well enough to justify their former draft slot but both players have MLB value. It’s also impressive that, in both cases, their original organizations held onto them long enough to reap some benefits. Perhaps both Purcey and Walker are examples that organizations now realize how much money they can save by developing and holding onto their own prospects.

The Boston Red Sox organization is one of the most aggressive teams in the Majors in terms of handing out above-slot deals to draft picks. During the three drafts spanning 2007-09, the club signed a Major League high 16 players to above-slot deals (outside the Top 3 rounds).

As a lover of everything prospects, I applaud this approach and even encourage it for organizations with strong scouting staffs. But how well have the multi-million dollar investments worked out for the Red Sox organization? Let’s have a look.

* For the sake of this article, I am focusing on over-slot deals for $200,000 or more.

7th round – Madison Younginer, RHP, S.C. HS ($975,000)
Challenged with an assignment to the New York-Penn League for his first taste of pro ball in 2010, the 19-year-old hurler currently has a 7.60 ERA (4.84 FIP) in 23.2 innings. He’s struggled a bit with his control but he’s shown a nice ground-ball rate at 59%. In the low minors, high ground-ball rates can hurt pitchers with poor defenses behind them (as well as poorly maintained fields).

9th round – Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor U ($550,000)
At 22, Volz is on the old side for low-A and he’s not exactly dominating the league. The right-hander has a 4.11 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 81.0 innings of work. He’s given up 92 hits and struck out just 62 batters with an average-ish ground-ball rate at 42%. Volz has walked just eight batters, which suggests he has good control but perhaps poor command of his pitches in the strike zone, which has been hurting him against the overly aggressive young hitters in the low minors.

10th round – Brandon Jacobs, OF, Georgia HS ($750,000)
Another teenager assigned to the New York-Penn League, Jacobs is holding his own with a triple-slash line of .276/.333/.402 in 87 at-bats. He has 28 strikeouts in 24 games. The Sox stole him away from Auburn’s football program and the results have been encouraging so far, even if he has yet to truly display his raw power potential.

11th round – Jason Thompson, SS, Tenn HS ($300,000)
Known for having good speed, Thompson has attempted just three steals in 17 GCL games. The switch-hitter is batting .208/.203/.319 in 72 at-bats. For a player that profiles as a No. 1 or 2 hitter, it’s not a good sign to see a goose-egg in the walk column.

26th round – Miles Head, 3B, Georgia HS ($335,000)
Head managed to get 10 games of pro experience in during the ’09 season after signing and he moved up from the GCL to the New York-Penn League for 2010. He’s currently hitting .275/.381/.377 in 69 at-bats. Head is showing a pretty good eye at the plate with 12 walks to 10 strikeouts. Considered a very good amateur hitter, the knock on Head was a bad body and poor defense at the hot corner. The infielder has moved over to first base in ’10 so he’ll need to start showing some more power.

4th round – Pete Hissey, OF, Pennsylvania HS ($1 million)
It’s been a step-by-step ascent for Hissey, who has moved up one level each season since signing. The outfielder is not exactly tearing the Carolina League apart by hitting .245/.322/.329 in 319 at-bats. He’s shown limited power throughout his career but 20+ stolen base ability. Hissey needs to get on base a little more consistently.

5th round – Ryan Westmoreland, OF, R.I. HS ($2 million)
We probably all know the story of Westmoreland by now. Recovering from brain surgery, the former top prospect is reportedly hitting off of a tee in the hopes of resuming regular baseball activity in the future.

6th round – Ryan Lavarnway, C, Yale U ($325,000)
The decision to pay Lavarnway is looking pretty smart. The former Yale student is currently hitting .289/.392/.487 in 304 at-bats and showed a pretty good stick in low-A in ’09, as well. After hitting 24 homers last year, Lavarnway is on pace to hit 20+ homers yet again. Behind the dish, he’s thrown out 36% of base runners, but he’s still working on his receiving skills.

13th round – Tyler Wilson, RHP, Georgia HS ($300,000)
Wilson wasn’t on a lot of teams’ radars as a top pick, but the club obviously liked his solid pitcher’s frame, which is currently 6-5, 190 lbs. Wilson is pitching in the New York-Penn League and has a 4.84 ERA (4.38 FIP) with 26 hits allowed in 22.1 innings.

27th round – Hunter Cervenka, LHP, Texas HS ($350,000)
Cervenka has joined Wilson in the Spinners rotation. The lefty showed some command issues in 11 ’09 appearances by walking 26 batters in 22.1 innings. He’s made adjustments in ’10 with just 11 walks in 21.0 innings. Cervenka currently has a 4.29 ERA (4.38 FIP).

35th round – Carson Blair, SS, Texas HS ($200,000)
Since signing, Blair has moved from shortstop to catcher. After posting a .608 OPS in the Gulf Coast League in ’09, he was moved up to the New York-Penn League but he appeared in just one game before hitting the disabled list. The thumb injury required surgery, according to SoxProspects.com.

5th round – Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Texas HS ($925,000)
Slow and easy. Middlebrooks hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s shown improvements in each and every pro season. The third baseman is currently hitting .293/.353/.455 in 297 at-bats. He’s showing better power in ’10 (.162 ISO) but he’s still striking out a lot (26% K rate). Defensively, Middlebrooks is showing better range this season but he’s made his fair share of errors.

6th round – Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Florida HS ($325,000)
Like Westmoreland, Rizzo has faced some serious health issues since turning pro. His cancer is in remission, though, and the first baseman had a breakout year in ’09. Unfortunately, despite playing at two levels in ’10, he’s hitting just .246/.310/.447 combined between high-A and double-A. His OBP has slipped to just .297 in double-A, thanks in part to 17 walks in 225 at-bats.

7th round – David Mailman, 1B, N.C. HS ($550,000)
Mailman received more cash from the Sox to walk away from a college commitment than Rizzo did, but the former has yet to have the same success in pro ball. Mailman has basically hit the wall in high-A. In 199 at-bats in ’09, he hit just .186/.261/.221. In ’10, he was hitting just .130/.264/.273 in 77 at-bats before being sidelined by a broken wrist.

16th round – Austin Bailey, RHP, Alabama HS ($285,000)
A disappointing story, Bailey injured his shoulder in his first pro start in 2008 and hasn’t pitched since. He was then suspended in ’09 and released earlier this year.

23rd round – Drake Britton, LHP, Texas HS ($700,000)
On to happier news. Britton has been a real find for the organization. After spending parts of two seasons in short-season ball thanks to Tommy John surgery, the lefty moved up to low-A in ’10 and has posted a 3.15 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 34.1 innings and 12 starts. His innings are being closely monitored as he rebounds from the injury but he’s flashed good fastball velocity in his return.

There has been a lot of controversy in Arizona recently and, while I don’t necessarily agree with the direction of the big-league club, the organization boasts an exciting minor league system. The strength of the system actually comes as a result of an impressive 2009 draft haul – perhaps the best in recent memory in terms of overall depth. Let’s check in with some of the members of the ’09 class:

1st RND Bobby Borchering, 3B, Florida HS
The club’s first pick has yet to truly get hot this season and is producing a triple-slash line of .248/.324/.388 in 286 overall at-bats. Borchering has actually been pretty consistent and has hit right around .250 in every month. The switch-hitter’s swing from the right side has been a little more potent this year, albeit in fewer at-bats.

1S Matt Davidson, 3B, California HS
Davidson has shown a little more pop in his bat this season than his fellow hot-corner mate with a triple-slash line of .289/.374/.485 in 270 at-bats. Davidson began the year with a very aggressive approach, with just one walk in April, but he made adjustments and walked 13 times in May and 12 times in June. Unfortunately, the more patient approach has hurt his average: .354 in April, .265 in May, and .228 in June.

1S Chris Owings, SS, South Carolina HS
Another aggressive hitter, Owings has just nine walks compared to 50 strikeouts. Overall, though, the approach has been successful to this point. He’s currently hitting .298/.323/.447 in 255 at-bats. Owings hit more than .300 in his debut in ’09.

1S Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College
Belfiore had a nice debut in ’09 and he’s followed that up with a solid performance. Unfortunately, his ground-ball rate is not as good as it was in his debut and his control has slipped a bit, too, although it’s still solid. He looks like a solid No. 3 starter if he continues to develop on this path.

2. Eric Smith, RHP, University of Rhode Island
Smith has been a workhorse, with 80 innings pitched so far this season. He’s given up 80 hits and 27 walks. He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and has a respectable – but not flashy – strikeout rate. He looks like a potential No. 3 starter for the D-Backs.

2. Marc Krauss, OF, University of Ohio
Krauss has been on the fast-track and currently has a .931 OPS in high-A ball. Overall, he’s hitting .327/.389/.541 in 303 at-bats. He shown some good pop but he also strikes out a lot (70 Ks). He’s been on fire recently and has 25 hits and seven homers in his last 10 games – good for a 1.654 OPS.

5. Ryan Wheeler, 1B, Loyola Marymount University
Wheeler hit more than .350 in his debut in ’09 and he’s followed that up with a solid line of .285/.343/.409 in 330 at-bats. However, he has yet to tap into his raw power and has just six homers (but 21 doubles). After hitting .310 in April, Wheeler cooled to .234 in June. His power development will dictate his future potential.

8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Texas State University
Goldschmidt has shown massive power in the potent California League with 24 doubles and 18 homers. His overall approach, though, suggests he may face difficulties at higher levels. He’s walked 27 times with an eye-popping 90 strikeouts. Goldschmidt is also hitting just .194 with runners in scoring position.

This draft class also includes a few other interesting names to monitor, including pitchers Patrick Schuster, and Scottie Allen, as well as outfielders Keon Broxton, and the injured A.J. Pollock, and infielder David Nick.

We’re getting to that time of year when we should begin to see players start to change hands as playoff-hopeful teams look to solidify their rosters for that final two-month push. As a result, we could start to see some playing time open up for rookies currently applying their trades in the minors. Below you’ll find three first basemen that could be in line to benefit from some trade deadline wheeling and dealings.

Brandon Allen, Arizona
Current first baseman Adam LaRoche is having a fine season and Arizona currently sits in last place in the National league West division. The team is currently cleaning house in the front office, so that mentality could lead to a lot of changes on the field, as well. LaRoche will be a free agent at the end of the year, but he also has a 2011 mutual option for $9.5 million. Because his numbers have taken a dip since his strong April, Arizona will likely have to take a B- or C-level prospect for LaRoche.

Allen’s overall numbers may not look that impressive, but his OPS was .757 in April. Since missing all but three games in May (shoulder dislocation), he’s gone on a massive hot streak and had a 1.146 OPS in June. During that month he also walked 25 times in 26 games. For the year, Allen has 42 walks in 51 games and a slugging percentage of .529. It’s probably time to hand the job to the inexpensive 24-year-old prospect to see what he can do. Surely he can take a legitimate run at LaRoche’s 0.6 WAR.

Logan Morrison, Florida
Current first baseman Gaby Sanchez is doing everything he can to keep Morrison in triple-A. As a result, the team may have to get fancy to find room for the 22-year-old prospect. With the team falling down the standings in the NL East, now might be the time to finally trade second baseman Dan Uggla, who currently has the second highest wOBA of his career at .365 and is showing respectable fielding abilities, according to UZR. By trading Uggla, the club could then move sophomore Chris Coghlan back to the position he played in the minors and install Morrison in left (where he has some experience).

Kila Ka’aihue, Kansas City
Royals management gave Ka’aihue a token call-up in May to try and shut up the stats crowd… but we’re back and starting to make noise again. If the organization can find a take for Jose Guillen – which is no sure thing despite his 1.3 WAR – then Ka’aihue deserves to have an extended look in the Majors. Check out these triple-A numbers: .307/.472/.583 in 218 at-bats. On the year, Ka’aihue has 70 walks in 64 games, as well as a .276 ISO rate. The Royals club is second last in the Majors in walks and its on-base percentage (10th in the Majors) relies very heavily on batting average. The team also has the seventh lowest ISO rate in the Majors so a little more power could help, too.

The Houston Astros’ top prospect Jason Castro was recalled recently and gives fans of the organization something to look forward to as he acclimatizes himself to the Major Leagues. Through five MLB games, he’s off to a nice start with a wOBA of .392. The even better news for Astros followers, though, is that there are more prospects on the way. And the one that we should be most excited about could one day throw to Castro.

Jordan Lyles, just 19, is currently performing well in double-A. The right-hander has a 3.10 FIP in 93.1 innings of work and has given up 88 hits and just 22 walks, which shows outstanding control (2.10 BB/9) for a teenager. His 85 K total places him in second place in the Texas League, 11 knockouts ahead of teammate Douglas Arguello.

There are a couple small things that Lyles can continue to work on. His ground-ball rate is just average at 44% and better worm-burning numbers could help him when he pitches at home in Houston. His numbers against left-handed batters are not too bad – in part because of a low BABIP – but his strikeout rate drops from 9.95 against righties to 6.35 K/9. This could suggest that his change-up is not an overly effective pitch against lefties – or he’s just not using it enough.

Another interesting stat with Lyles this year is his strikeout rate with runners in scoring position, which is just 4.38 – compared to 9.85 K/9 with the bases empty. This is basically the exact opposite of what you want to see; the more you put balls in play, the more likely you are to fall victim to bad luck (or bad fielding) because you don’t want to give base runners the chance to scamper home. Lyles has been lucky to this point with a .231 BABIP with RISP but that’s unlikely to hold true. The Astros prospect also had a similar statistical trend in ’09. It’s a trend that a lot of pitchers follow, but not to the extreme that Lyles has (a difference of almost 5.50 K/9).

One of the most interesting things about Lyles is that the Houston Astros organization was just about the only club that viewed the right-hander as a potential supplemental first round pick when he was selected out of a South Carolina high school and signed for just under a $1 million. He’s performed better than any other ’08 supplemental pick not names Mike Montgomery or Jake Odorizzi. Kudos to the Astros’ talent oft-maligned evaluators.

With Roy Oswalt’s and Brett Myers‘ futures up in the air as the trade deadline nears, Lyles could be positioning himself to aid the organization at some point in 2011. Both Lyles and Castro could help to breathe new life into this stagnant organization. If the organization is smart, it will look to trade both Oswalt and Myers – neither of whom will be around when the organization is ready to compete for a title, anyway – to hopefully acquire some complementary parts to build around the battery of the future.

There are no conspiracies in Major League Baseball… just large coincidences. One such coincidence was the significant number of top prospect call-ups in June. Many of these prospects now have close to a month’s worth of experience in the Majors, so it’s a perfect time to check in on them and see which players are positioning themselves to make a strong run at the Rookie of the Year awards.

Buster Posey, C, San Francisco
OK, we’re fudging the rules right off the bat here with Posey, who technically played three games in May. One of the top offensive prospects in baseball, he’s looked good at the MLB level and is currently hitting .310/.337/.414 in 87 at-bats. The Giants organization has already announced that Posey will see more time behind the dish going foward, which is great news for his overall value as he’s currently appeared in just three games as a catcher, compared to 21 games at first base.

Jason Castro, C, Houston
Castro is one of the most recent call-ups and he has just four games of MLB experience under his belt. The former No. 1 draft pick narrowly missed making the team out of spring training only to go down and struggle in triple-A with a triple-slash line of .226/.388/.245. Luckily for him, J.R. Towles failed in his bid to hold onto the big-league gig.

Pedro Alvarez, OF, Pittsburgh
Despite his brief pro career, Alvarez has a bit of a reputation as a slow starter. He hit poorly at high-A ball in ’09 before moving up to double-A and setting the world on fire. Then he opened up 2010 at triple-A and hit just .224/.298/.424 in April. His bat came to life in May and June, though, which earned him a shot at the Majors. Alvarez has struggled to make contact in his first 10 games. The former No. 1 draft pick has struck out 17 times in his first 35 at-bats. His triple-slash line currently sits at .114/.158/.171.

Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh
Tabata more or less reinvented himself at triple-A in 2010 by setting a career high in steals in just 53 games and also by hitting more than .300 with solid on-base numbers. Rewarded with his first taste of the Majors, Tabata has hit better than Alvarez but he’s still producing modest numbers. The former Yankees prospect is hitting .242/.299/.339 in 62 at-bats.

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
The 20-year-old Stanton got a lot of people excited with his double-A numbers, which included 21 homers, a 1.171 OPS, and 52 RBI in 53 games. Unfortunately, a lot of people looked past the high strikeout rate. The Marlins’ top prospect is currently hitting just .213/.279/.311 in 61 at-bats. His strikeout rate sits at 47.5 K%. It definitely would have made a lot of sense to give him some time at triple-A before promoting him to the Majors.

Brad Lincoln, RHP, Florida
A former Top 5 pick in the amateur draft, Lincoln has been a little slower to develop than the organization had likely hoped. The right-hander produced good, but not great, numbers at triple-A this season, which was good enough to earn a shot in Pittsburgh. The MLB results have not been that great, though. Lincoln currently has a 5.95 xFIP and his ground-ball rate sits at 38%. His strikeout rate through four starts is just 3.00 K/9.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
Another pitcher with four MLB starts… but the results here are quite different. Despite having a BABIP-allowed of .358, Strasburg’s xFIP sits at 1.35 and his strikeout rate is 14.57 K/9 (with a walk rate of just 1.78 BB/9). So much for rookie jitters. Strasburg’s fastball has been sitting at 97.5 mph and he has positive pitch-type values for all three of his offerings (heater, curveball, change-up).

Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland
With apologies to Mr. Posey, Santana has probably had the biggest offensive impact of all the June call-ups… at least to this point. He has made a seamless transition to the Majors and is currently hitting .318/.446/.682 in 44 at-bats. Santana also has a 19.6% walk rate and has had more base-on-balls than strikeouts (1.83 BB/K rate). His wOBA sits at .472. The biggest knock on Santana is defense, but he’s thrown out 50% of base stealers with just one error and no passed balls.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore
Arrieta finally began to turn potential into results in 2010 at triple-A. The right-hander produced a 1.85 ERA and gave up just 48 hits in 73.0 innings of work. Promoted to the Majors for the first time in his career, he has a 6.20 ERA (5.78 xFIP) in four starts. Arrieta has given up 20 hits with a walk rate of 5.31 BB/9 in 20.1 innings. He’s shown a good fastball, but he’s struggled to command both his slider and his change-up.

The Toronto Blue Jays organization has received some attention recently for its strong catching depth throughout the minor leagues. The club’s division mate and hated rival – aka the New York Yankees organization – has some pretty impressive depth behind the dish, as well. Let’s compare the two systems in regards to this common area of strength.

Edit: Since first publishing the post, I’ve added J.R. Murphy to the analysis at the behest of Yankees fans. I originally chose to include just one catcher per organization per level. I chose to go with just Kyle Higashioka because Murphy has played more games at DH (19) than catcher (14). After re-thinking it, I’ve included both prospects, but it does not alter the conclusions of the article.

New York Yankees
The Yankees’ best hitting prospect is also the triple-A catcher: Jesus Montero. Despite all the hype, he has shown his human side at the plate this season with a triple-slash line of .235/.298/.378 in 230 at-bats. Montero’s also struck out more times in 2010 (48) than he did all of last year (47 times in 347 at-bats). However, he is just 20 years old and has also been focusing on improving his defense. Montero’s 30+ home run potential is still there, as is his ability to hit .280-.300.

Toronto Blue Jays
J.P. Arencibia is arguably the organization’s best hitting prospect (although you could also make a case for Brett Wallace or even Travis d’Arnaud, whom we’ll discuss in a moment). Arencibia got off to a bit of a slow start in 2010 and was also coming off of a poor triple-A showing in ’09. The 24-year-old has posted a 1.157 OPS with seven homers in June and has an overall triple-slash line of .289/.340/.566 in 242 at-bats. Arencibia has also improved significantly on defense since his college days to the point where many consider him an above-average defensive catcher.

Edge: Montero. If you want to toss a wrinkle into the argument, you could point out that Montero is not likely to remain behind the dish when he reaches the Majors. However, he’s still catching in triple-A, so he’s technically still a catcher until they pry the tools of ignorance away from him. Although Arencibia is the better all-around player, Montero’s offensive ceiling is much higher than the Toronto prospect’s.

New York Yankees
Austin Romine is working hard to show why some analysts consider him a better prospect than Montero (mainly due to his defensive value). I’m not 100% convinced in that way of thinking but you definitely have to see Romine as a special player. Just 21, he’s currently hitting .294/.360/.447 and 20 of his 67 hits have gone for doubles. He also has 39 RBI in 57 games. Romine’s brother Andrew plays in the Angels’ system and father Kevin played parts of seven seasons in the Majors.

Toronto Blue Jays
Brian Jeroloman, 25, has made the best of a difficult situation. The organization has Arencibia in triple-A and it wants the defensive whiz to play everyday so he’s stuck repeating double-A for a third year. He’s also coming off a terrible ’09 season in which he posted a .646 OPS. Always known for having a patient approach, the organization felt he was being too passive and letting too many good pitches go by. He’s made adjustments in ’10 and, while he’s still walking at a good clip, his new approach has worked wonders for his overall numbers: .300/.459/.494 in 160 at-bats.

Edge: Romine. Jeroloman’s defense was always good enough to make him a sure-fire MLB catcher, and now his offensive boost increases his value that much more… but Romine has proven to be a special player. He has shown skill both behind the plate and with a bat in his hand… and both his age and bloodlines give him a big boost in terms of value.

New York Yankees
This is the weak spot in the Yankees’ catching depth. The everyday catcher in Tampa has been Mitch Abeita, a 19th round draft pick out of the University of Nebraska in 2008. He has a 2010 triple-slash line of .244/.351/.314.

Toronto Blue Jays
Travis d’Arnaud’s numbers are not quite as impressive as they were earlier in the season, but the 21-year-old catcher has also battled some back issues (which sidelined him in May). Even so, the right-handed batter has a respectable triple-slash line of .276/.330/.436 in 163 at-bats. Even better, the organization has been impressed with his defense and on-field leadership. He could end up being the key to the Roy Halladay trade with Philly.

Edge: d’Arnaud. With apologies to Abeita, it’s not close at all. The Jays backstop projects to be an all-around, above-average backstop.

New York Yankees
Kyle Higashioka received an above-slot deal as a seventh-round pick out of a California high school in ’08 based on his solid defensive reputation and raw power potential. Not much has changed since then. Higashioka continues to show more on defense than offense and is currently hitting just .194/.277/.304 in 217 at-bats. He needs to learn to hit the ball the other way a little more consistently. By no means a lost cause, the University of California recruit is still just 20 years old and would just be finishing his sophomore year of college.

J.R. Murphy began the year in extended spring training before being moved up to low-A ball to play with Higashioka. The right-handed hitting catcher is currently producing a triple-slash line of .250/.299/.318 in 132 at-bats. Clearly, the offensive numbers are not that impressive right now but he has a lot of potential. The Yankees organization grabbed him out of a Florida high school with a second round pick in the ’09 draft. He’s spent 19 games as a DH and 14 games as a catcher this season. While behind the plate, Murphy has thrown out just 21% of base runners.

Toronto Blue Jays
Like Jeroloman, A.J. Jimenez has been stuck in the depth crunch. d’Arnaud’s presence in high-A is keeping Puerto Rico native in low-A ball for a second straight season. In ’09, Jimenez hit .263/.280/.356 in 278 at-bats. This year, the 20-year-old catcher is hitting .308/.356/.456 in 182 at-bats. He also has a career-high 39 RBI in 50 games. A ninth-round pick during the 2008 draft, Jimenez slid due to health concerns (there was a fear that he would have to undergo Tommy John surgery) but he’s been OK and has even thrown out 54% of base runners in ’10.

Edge: Jimenez. Again, don’t give up on Higashioka or Murphy… The Toronto catcher is just much further along in his development at this time. Jimenez has a good defensive reputation, is a solid athlete, and is turning into a respectable hitter who has made adjustments at the plate.

New York Yankees
Just 17 years old, Gary Sanchez has already put the baseball world on notice. The offensive-minded catcher is batting .353 with two homers through four Gulf Coast League games. He also has eight RBI. It’s easy to see why he was one of the top international free agents in 2009; he signed for $2.5 million and could end up being a steal.

Toronto Blue Jays
Carlos Perez has one of the highest ceilings of any catcher in short-season ball, which is saying a lot. He’s a solid defensive catcher and he has a great eye at the plate. The 19-year-old Venezuela native hit .291/.364/.433 during his state-side debut in ’09 and he’s hitting .360 with seven RBI and eight runs scored through six New York Penn League games in ’10.

Edge: Let’s call this one a draw. Sanchez may have a higher offensive ceiling, and could easily skyrocket up this chart within 12 months, but we also have 2+ years of very impressive data on Perez. The Yankees prospect is in his first pro season, so I’m admittedly being a little cautious (not to be confused with homer-ism).

Conclusion: Taking into consideration both depth and overall talent ceiling, I’d give the Jays organization a slight edge, as the club really does have solid prospects at five different levels, where the Yankees system tops out with three solid catching prospects at five levels. New York, though, does have two or the top three catching prospects. There really aren’t any true winners or losers in this; both organizations have enviable catching depth.

Top 10 NYY/TOR Catching Prospects:
1. Jesus Montero, New York
2. J.P. Arencibia, Toronto
3. Austin Romine, New York
4. Travis d’Arnaud, Toronto
5. A.J. Jimenez, Toronto
6/7. Gary Sanchez, New York/Carlos Perez, Toronto
8. Brian Jeroloman, Toronto
9. J.R. Murphy, New York
10. Kyle Higashioka, New York

*In fairness a small caveat applies: I am a Canadian and I have covered the Jays’ minor league system extensively for about seven years. I have tried to remain objective, so take that for what it’s worth…

Utility player Mark DeRosa has gotten around. The veteran has played with six clubs during his 12-year career. He was swapped twice within a six month period in 2008-09. DeRosa was first traded from the Chicago Cubs to the Cleveland Indians in December of ’08 and then from Cleveland to the St. Louis Cardinals in June of ’09.

In his half season with Cleveland, DeRosa provided a WAR of 1.4; he followed that up with a 0.3 WAR in half a season with St. Louis. So far this season for the San Francisco Giants (with whom he signed as a free agent), the former Atlanta Braves draft pick has seen his WAR fall into the negative at -0.3.

In those two aforementioned trades, five young players – four of whom were true “prospects” – changed hands. Although it’s been almost a year since DeRosa played for Cleveland and a good amount of time since he suited up for Chicago, let’s have a look and see what lasting effect – if any – he’s had on those two organizations (I last reviewed the Chicago side of the trade in July ’09).

Chicago received three young pitchers when it traded DeRosa to Cleveland: Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, and Chris Archer. Impressively, all three pitchers are still in the organization, and everyone has seen a bump in their value to the organization.

Stevens has been the most valuable to date. The 26-year-old reliever has had a neutral WAR (at exactly 0.0 for his career) but he’s looked good this season and could develop into a solid middle reliever. The right-hander has pitched 14.1 innings since being recalled in May. He went nine games before he allowed an earned run, but he then allowed runs in three straight games before tossing a scoreless frame on June 23. Stevens currently has an xFIP of 4.52, an average ground-ball rate, and a respectable strikeout rate of 7.53 K/9. His fastball has sat around 91 mph but he’s struggled to command his secondary pitches on a consistent basis.

Gaub, 25, has been a real find for the Cubs. The organization has yet to challenge him in the Majors, but the southpaw looks like he’ll be solid middle reliever or LOOGY. In ’09, he allowed 36 hits and struck out 80 batters in 60.0 combined innings between double-A and triple-A. Gaub handled left-handed batters very well in ’08 and ’09 but he’s struggled in a small-sample size in 2010. Lefties have batted .394 against him this season; he needs to show more consistent command of his slider – which can be a plus (strikeout) pitch. Despite his command and control (18 walks) issues, Gaub has a 3.52 FIP, 35 strikeouts and has given up 24 hits in 26.0 innings of work.

Gaub was the breakout player in ’09 and Archer is looking like the breakout star of ’10. Pitching in high-A ball, the right-handed starter currently has a 3.17 FIP and has given up just 49 hits in 66.1 innings of work. He’s also posted a solid ground-ball rate (51%), and has an excellent strikeout rate (10.21 K/9). The 21-year-old Archer also showed a high strikeout rate (9.83 K/9) in low-A ball in ’09. His fastball can reach 95-96 mph and his curveball is becoming more consistent. He’s still quite unrefined but Archer has solid potential as a big league starter.

Like Chicago, the Cleveland organization still retains all the pieces from the late 2008 trade: Chris Perez and Jess Todd, both pitchers.

Perez has pretty much been a neutral reliever for Cleveland, in terms of WAR (0.1). Traded in mid-2009, he showed solid numbers in half a season with Cleveland, which included a 3.85 xFIP, 10.26 K/9 rate and a 6.48 H/9 rate. The right-hander has taken a larger role in the bullpen this season, including filling in for injured and ineffective closer Kerry Wood, but Perez’ numbers have not been as good as they were in ’09. He currently has a 5.30 xFIP and he’s allowing more than one hit per nine innings over last season’s rate. His strikeout rate has also dropped to 6.33 K/9. His pitches (fastball and slider) have just not been as reliable this season, although his overall control has held steady.

Todd, a former second round pick out of the University of Arkansas, has always posted good numbers in the minors. He stumbled in his MLB debut in ’09 and posted a 7.66 ERA (but 4.47 xFIP) with a hit rate of 13.70 H/9 in 22.1 innings. He struggled with the home run (1.61 HR/9), as well, but showed a solid strikeout rate at 8.06 K/9. He produced a neutral WAR at 0.0. Todd simply needs to show better fastball/cutter command in the Majors. In 2010 at triple-A, the right-handed reliever has given up 33 hits and 11 walks in 31.1 innings. He also has 33 strikeouts.

To complete the effect that DeRosa has had on his former organizations, we must look to the 2010 draft. The St. Louis Cardinals organization received a first round supplemental draft pick for the loss of DeRosa (a Type B free agent) to San Francisco. With that selection (46th overall), St. Louis acquired the rights to Arizona State University pitcher Seth Blair. The club has yet to come to terms with the right-hander, although he was ineligible to sign a pro contract while his school competed in the College World Series (ASU was eliminated on June 22).

Short-season leagues around Minor League Baseball are in full swing now. Some leagues – like the Dominican Summer League – have played more than 20 games, while others – like the Gulf Coast League – have managed just two games so far. Let’s have a look at some of the interesting names found within these low-level leagues. Small sample size warning clearly applies.

Dominga Santana, OF, Philadelphia
Considered by FanGraphs as the Phillies’ 12th best prospect entering 2010 (and ninth by Baseball America), Santana had a solid debut season in the Gulf Coast League in ’09. The outfielder hit .288/.388/.508 at the age of just 16(!). Well, five games into the New York Penn League season he’s third in the league in hitting at .471 (17 at-bats). Santana is a potential five-tool player, with a strong arm, although the 6’5” outfielder projects to lose speed as he fills out.

Michael Ynoa, RHP, Oakland
Signed for more than $4 million in ’08, Ynoa had yet to throw a pitch in pro ball until the 2010 season. Injury concerns caused the organization to go slow with the big right-hander but he’s still just 18 years old. The Dominican Republic native faced the Angels’ rookie league club on June 21 and he allowed just one hit (no walks) in three innings and struck out four batters. The organization will continue to be cautious with Ynoa, so he’ll likely be a slow mover through the system.

Carlos Perez, C, Toronto
Another international find, Perez made his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in ’08 as a 17-year-old catcher and he showed an outstanding approach at the plate for his age, with a line of .306/.459/.378. He also walked 52 times with just 28 strikeouts in a league where most of the hitters are extremely aggressive. Last season in rookie ball, Perez hit .291/.364/.433 in 141 at-bats and showed solid defensive skills behind the plate. Toronto continues to go slow with the talented catcher as he’s currently playing in the New York Penn League and has a 1.150 OPS and has scored a league-leading eight runs through five games. Toronto has impressive catching depth in the minors with J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, A.J. Jimenez, and Perez.

Kolbrin Vitek, 3B, Boston
I love to see draft prospects sign quickly and get on with their pro careers. Vitek is one of nine first-round picks from 2010 that have jumped at the chance to play pro ball. He’s hitting .333 through five games and has been playing third base. Fellow third baseman Jedd Gyorko had an outside shot of going in the first round in 2010, but he slid to the Padres in the second round. He has a 1.350 OPS and the league lead with two homers through five games in the Northwest League.

Miguel Sano, SS, Minnesota
One of the top 2009 international free agents ($3.15 million), Sano was left in the Dominican Summer League this season by the Twins and he’s hitting like he wants a ticket north. The recently turned 17-year-old infielder is currently hitting .341/.444/.636 through 44 at-bats. He’s struck out 14 times, but he’s also taken eight free passes through 14 games.

Yeicok Calderon, OF, New York AL
New York shelled out cash to a number of talented international free agents in ’08 and Calderon was one of the them, although he was not considered the top player in the group. In fact, he did not even make Baseball America’s Top 30 prospects list for the organization. After a solid debut in ’09 in which he hit .321/.440/.415 in 193 at-bats in the Dominican Summer League, Calderon is making a statement in 2010 and he clearly wants to move stateside in 2011. He’s leading the DSL in homers with five (he hit three in 55 games last year) and he has a .956 OPS through 18 games.

Not afraid to make controversial moves (see Roy Halladay), the Blue Jays’ rookie General Manager Alex Anthopoulos designated struggling third baseman Edwin Encarnacion for assignment on Sunday.

The 27-year-old former Red – who was acquired last season in the Scott Rolen trade that also netted Toronto a pitching prospect by the name of Zach Stewart – was hitting just .200/.298/.467 in 141 at-bats in 2010. Encarnacion missed much of April due to injuries and never did get on track. He made some headlines in May, though, when he went on a homer binge with six of his nine hits in the month going over the fence.

Like much of the Toronto lineup, Encarnacion got into a bad habit of swinging for the home run in each at-bat, even if the situation warranted a different approach. Hopefully his time in the minors will remind him of the importance of hitting the ball hard but not trying to do too much. It’s possible – but highly unlikely – that the third baseman’s contract will be claimed on waivers. In reality, he and his $4.75 contact will make their way to triple-A Las Vegas. After the season, Encarnacion will be arbitration eligible with close to five years of Major League service under his belt. He is not expected back in Toronto for 2011.

This might actually be a good time for the cement-gloved Encarnacion – affectionately dubbed E5 by the home crowd – to be introduced to right field. A position switch could make him a more valuable commodity during the late-July trade deadline (at which time Toronto would have to eat most, if not all, Encarnacion’s contract to receive even a B- or C-level prospect in return). He’s by no means a lost cause; he is still young and has a career line of .257/.339/.449 and a .344 wOBA in 2,322 MLB at-bats. With a new position, he could see a real boost in his WAR – especially if he hits like he did between 2006-08.

In his place, the Jays recalled 27-year-old Jarrett Hoffpauir, who was acquired off waivers this past off-season from the Cardinals organization. Mostly a second baseman in the minors, he’s also seen some time at third base this season… with mixed results on defense. At the plate, though, Hoffpauir has taken full advantage of the potent hitting environment and he has a triple-A slash line of .328/.378/.532 in 235 at-bats. The power output is a side effect of his league, but Hoffpauir has always hit for a solid average and quite often walks more than he strikes out. His offensive menu is much more appetizing at second, but the homer-happy club can afford his lack of power at the traditionally pop-tastic hot corner.

The former sixth round draft pick out of Southern Mississippi (2004) deserves a prolonged shot in the Majors, as he only had a brief cup of coffee with the Cardinals in ’09. It was Hoffpauir whom I expected to see when bench player Mike McCoy was optioned to triple-A last week… only to find out the Jays replaced the far-more-versatile player with… Nick Green (career .288 wOBA). Current triple-A infielder Brad Emaus, recently promoted from double-A to triple-A, could be the club’s third baseman of the future. He’s not a big-bopper, either, and profiles as a Scott Spiezio-type infielder. Emaus, 24, is currently hitting .292/.402/.467 in 195 at-bats.

It remains to be seen what Manager Cito Gaston will do with Hoffpauir and exactly how much time he’ll see at third base. It’s possible that Gaston will favor John McDonald (career .265 wOBA) for his defense at third. It’s also possible that Jose Bautista will shift from right field to third base for the majority of the time with another recent addition, Dewayne Wise (.278 wOBA) receiving significant time in right field until Travis Snider returns after the All-Star Break. If that’s the plan, though, it would have made more sense to keep infielder-outfielder McCoy over Green.

Truth be told, I’ve given up trying to understand Gaston’s moves.