In one of the most thrilling finishes to a Wild Card game, the Washington Nationals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night. That victory finally exorcised the nightmare that elimination games have been for the Nats over the last decade. Now their sights are set on the best team in the National League, the Dodgers.

At a Glance:

• Game 1: Thursday, October 3, 8:37 PM EST in Los Angeles
• Game 2: Friday, October 4, 9:37 PM EST in Los Angeles
• Game 3: Sunday, October 6, time TBD in Washington
• Game 4 (if necessary): Monday, October 7, time TBD in Washington
• Game 5 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 9, time TBD in Los Angeles

This five-game series sets up a clash between the top two starting rotations in the senior circuit. The Dodgers starters posted a park- and league-adjusted FIP 19% better than league average, and the Nationals were just a point right behind them. But in a short series, the quality of the top of the rotation is paramount, and these two teams are very top-heavy. Read the rest of this entry »

Félix Hernández didn’t always throw his signature changeup. When he was a teenager coming up through the Mariners organization, his best pitches were his electric fastball and a nasty curveball. That breaking ball has stuck with him in some form or fashion throughout his career, but his changeup was an afterthought until around 2009, the year before he won the Cy Young award. Since then, his cambio has become almost synonymous with his approach as a pitcher.

The changeup has existed in the game as long as pitchers have been trying to disrupt the timing of the opposing batter. But Félix’s changeup was unlike any that had come before. “There is no one in baseball that throws a Félix Hernández changeup — no one,” Brandon Moss told Sports Illustrated back in 2014. What made it so unique was it’s combination of high velocity and elite vertical movement. He threw it around 90 mph when almost no one else in baseball was throwing a changeup that hard. Conventional wisdom assumed that the velocity differential was the most important aspect of a good changeup. Afterall, what better way to disrupt the timing of a batter than to throw two pitches with a significant gap in speed even though they look the same out of the hand.

Based on Harry Pavlidis’s research into effective changeups, we know that a large velocity differential is beneficial for inducing swings and misses. But he also found that changeups with good separation from the fastball by movement can also be effective. Félix’s cambio had the high velocity of a fastball — and the resulting small differential — but it dropped off the table like a splitter. Read the rest of this entry »

No team in baseball has been hotter in September than the Brewers. They’ve lost just four games this month and that hot streak has them on the verge of clinching a playoff berth. That they’ve continued to win so many games without their superstar, MVP candidate Christian Yelich, makes their success all the more impressive. But while their offense has managed to find ways to score enough runs without Yelich in the lineup, their pitching staff has been simply dominant.

The Brewers have allowed just 66 runs to score this month, an average of three per game. That’s the fewest runs allowed in the majors and includes a 10-0 drubbing by the Cardinals on September 13. Their team ERA has easily been the best in baseball during this stretch. By park- and league-adjusted FIP, they’ve only been the fourth-best team in the majors, but still the best in the National League.

Surprisingly, their starting rotation has been led by Jordan Lyles. In four September starts, he’s allowed a total of six runs — four of them earned — giving him the lowest ERA of the Brewers regular starters (Brandon Woodruff hasn’t allowed a run in his two starts where he acted as the opener). This string of strong outings stretches back to late July when he joined the Brewers in a trade from Pittsburgh. Since being acquired, he’s been their most reliable starter, allowing two or fewer runs in eight of his 10 starts. Read the rest of this entry »

For teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention, September is a time for youngsters and debuts. Giving prospects a few weeks of major league experience is one of the great side effects of expanded rosters during the last month of the season. The Mariners have been auditioning their young talent since June — they’ve rostered 67 different players this season, a major league record — but the group of September call-ups were exciting nonetheless. After the Arkansas Travelers were eliminated from the Texas League playoffs, the Mariners promoted a group of four players from their Double-A affiliate: Donnie Walton, Art Warren, Justin Dunn, and Kyle Lewis.

Dunn and Lewis were the headlining names of this squad. Dunn had been ranked towards the back of a few top-100 prospect lists after his breakout last season. Lewis was a much bigger surprise. A first-round draft pick in 2016 — Jerry Dipoto’s first draft after taking over as Mariners GM in late 2015 — Lewis’s professional career was derailed almost as soon as it started. A nasty collision at home plate practically destroyed his knee after just 30 games in the minors. That injury sapped him of much of his athleticism and mobility for more than a year and he wasn’t fully healthy again until 2018. In that time, he tumbled down prospect lists and soon became an afterthought in an organization desperate for talent on the farm. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, Josh Hader headlined an excellent relief corps in Milwaukee, helping the Brewers win their division and make the postseason for the first time since 2011. While Hader drew all the headlines with his ridiculous 46.7% strikeout rate, their bullpen was incredibly deep, making up for a lackluster starting rotation. Corey Knebel, Jeremy Jeffress, and Joakim Soria all excelled in high-leverage situations, and Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff gave them plenty of length to bridge the gap from the starter to the back end of the ‘pen.

Fast forward one year and Hader is the lone reliever left from that group. Soria left via free agency, Knebel underwent Tommy John surgery in early April, and Woodruff has been a full-time starter this season. Jeffress and Burnes have been totally ineffective, with the former dealing with a shoulder issue and eventually getting released in August and the latter demoted after getting rocked as a starter to start the year. Hader, for his part, is still striking out nearly half the batters he’s facing, but he’s developed a bit of a home run problem, pushing his FIP up to 3.07 this season.

Collectively, the Brewers relievers have posted a park- and league-adjusted FIP 3% better than league average, 12th in the majors, but a far cry from their fourth-ranked (87 FIP-) bullpen from a year ago. Outside of Hader, they’ve struggled to find effective replacements for the relievers they lost from last year’s crew. Freddy Peralta has plenty of talent but his lack of control has really held him back. It was no surprise to see the Brewers attached to plenty of trade rumors in July as they looked for relief reinforcements from outside the organization. They ended up acquiring two relievers before the trade deadline, and one of them has been absolutely dominant since moving to Milwaukee. Read the rest of this entry »

There hasn’t been much to celebrate this year in Miami, but the Marlins starting rotation has been a source of a few positive developments. Caleb Smith and Pablo López started off the season strong but faded in the second half. Zac Gallen and Jordan Yamamoto both made their major league debuts, and while Gallen was shipped out at the trade deadline, Yamamoto has shown some promise as a 23-year-old rookie. But the most exciting progress has come from Sandy Alcantara.

On the surface, Alcantara’s stat line doesn’t look that impressive. His park and league adjusted FIP sits just seven percent above league average but that’s more due to some luck in keeping the ball in the ballpark. His 18% strikeout rate is one of the worst in the majors among qualified starters despite a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. The biggest question mark attached to him as a prospect was his command of his repertoire. In his 42 major league innings prior to this year, he ran a walk rate above 15%. He’s managed to drop that down to 10.7% this year, but that’s still one of the worst walk rates in the majors.

The fourth ranked prospect in the Marlins organization and 127th overall at the start of the season, there were plenty of doubts that Alcantara could stick in a major league rotation as he developed. He’s likely going to make 30 starts this year, which has to be seen as a success for the Marlins player development group, shoddy peripherals be damned. But since the start of August, Alcantara has shown flashes of brilliance, giving Marlins fans another starting pitcher to dream on for next season.

In his seven starts since the end of July, Alcantara has posted a park and league adjusted FIP 19% better than league average. More importantly, his strikeout rate has jumped up to 22.3%, a nearly six point improvement from where it sat after the first four months of the season. The highlight of this stretch came in his last start at home against the Royals. He threw a complete game, holding Kansas City scoreless while allowing just six base runners and striking out eight. That was actually the second complete game shutout he’s thrown this year, his first coming back in May against the Mets. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite being a near lock to make the playoffs, the Twins are facing plenty of challenges on their way to October. Over the weekend, Michael Pineda was hit with a 60-game suspension for violating the MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. That seriously hurts the Twins starting rotation considering he’s been their best starter since June. But that’s not the only problem the Twins are facing now. Yesterday, news broke that center fielder Byron Buxton had labrum surgery, knocking him out for the rest of the season.

Buxton had been on the injured list since early August, but before that, he was putting together the best season of his career. In addition to his elite defense in center field, his bat had finally risen to meet the high expectations his prospect pedigree placed on him. He had cut his strikeout rate to 23.1% and pushed his isolated power up to .251, helping him post a 111 wRC+ in just under 300 plate appearances. If given a full year on the field, he was on pace to post a five-win season.

Buxton had been making progress rehabbing his shoulder with the hope of a late-September activation with an eye towards helping the team in the postseason. His return was never guaranteed, but now that he’s entirely out of the picture, it pushes the Twins outfield depth to its limit. Three other outfielders on the Twins roster have battled nagging injuries recently, leaving them critically short-handed despite the expanded rosters in September. Read the rest of this entry »

Cody Bellinger is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season. His 7.3 WAR is second in the majors, his 166 wRC+ ranks third, and he’s among the league leaders in almost every offensive category. Barring a major surprise (from, say, Anthony Rendon), the NL MVP should come down to him and Christian Yelich. In addition to his incredible production at the plate, Bellinger has improved by leaps and bounds in the field. He’s putting up elite defensive numbers in right field for the Dodgers, and now they’re planning on moving him to center field full-time for the rest of the season.

The inconsistent play of A.J. Pollock in center provoked this move. An elite center fielder in his time with the Diamondbacks, Pollock’s defense has slipped terribly this year (-8 DRS, -5.8 UZR); meanwhile, Bellinger’s defense has improved dramatically this year (19 DRS, 9.8 UZR). The Dodgers are hoping this shuffle will give them the optimal alignment in the outfield in their quest for a championship.

At this point in his career, it’s more accurate to call Bellinger an outfielder than a first baseman. A few weeks ago, his major league time spent on the grass surpassed his time spent on the dirt. When he was drafted out of high school, Bellinger’s defensive scouting reports often mentioned that he had the athleticism to play in the outfield, but only in a corner. Here’s how Bernie Pleskoff described his defensive potential in his MLB.com scouting profile: “If needed, he could be a successful outfielder. I don’t think he has the speed to play center, but I think he could succeed in right.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Heading into the All-Star break, the Cardinals were sitting in third place in the NL Central with an even record of 44-44. Even though they were just two games behind the division-leading Cubs, their playoff odds were sitting at just 21.2%, the seventh-best mark in the National League. Since then, they’ve posted the best record in the NL, winning 33 of their 49 games since the midseason break. One of the biggest reasons for their surprising turnaround has been the excellent play of Kolten Wong.

Wong has accumulated 2.2 WAR in the second half of the season alone, by far the most wins by a position player on the Cardinals in that time. His 165 wRC+ ranks 14th in the majors since the break and he’s continued to flash the leather at second base. He’s setting career highs across all three slash components, and is on pace to hit more home runs and steal more bases than ever before. Wong’s excellence and Jack Flaherty’s masterful pitching since the All-Star break have carried the Cardinals into the division lead and boosted their playoff odds to 91.0%.

I should quickly point out that Wong is running a BABIP of .434 during his hot streak. He’s not really hitting for any additional power and his walk-to-strikeout ratio hasn’t budged. He’s simply benefitted from a ton of his batted balls falling in for hits over the last couple of months. But it’s not just blind luck driving his hot streak. He’s made some real changes to his plate approach that have helped him earn some of those extra hits. Read the rest of this entry »

On July 25, Masahiro Tanaka allowed a career-high 12 runs in just three and a third innings. It was a sobering outing in a marquee matchup against the Red Sox, but it was also a catalyst for him to make a major change to one of his pitches. His splitter has been his signature pitch for almost his entire career, both in Japan and in the States, but it hasn’t been nearly as effective this season. The ineffectiveness of his splitter has been a big reason why he’s leaned so heavily on his fastball and slider, and it’s been a constant source of frustration for him.

The source of his problems with the splitter is somewhat unexpected. Instead of a mechanical issue, it’s been the ball itself that’s caused his consternation. Tanaka discussed the issues he’s had with his splitter with both James Wagner of the New York Times in an article dated August 5, and Lindsay Adler of The Athletic in an piece posted yesterday. Here’s how he explained it to Wagner: “You grip the ball, and it feels a little bit different. And then when you’re throwing with that difference in hand, obviously the movement of the ball becomes a little bit different, too.”

The effect of the dragless ball on the explosion of offense seen in the major leagues and Triple-A has been widely studied. The baseball used in the majors was introduced in Triple-A for the first time this season and home run rates are skyrocketing. In a study published by The Athletic, Dr. Meredith Wills determined the biggest physical changes to the ball were lowered seams and leather smoothness, both contributing to there being less drag on the ball in flight. But the effects of the new ball on how pitchers grip and throw the ball hasn’t been examined as closely. In Tanaka, we have a specific case study on one of the other unforeseen effects of the new ball. Read the rest of this entry »