For 25 outs, the Diamondbacks’ plan had worked to perfection. Zac Gallen had worked through five gritty innings, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte had given Arizona a lead to hand to the bullpen, and the relief corps had weathered a relentless Rangers lineup. As Paul Sewald entered in the ninth inning with a two-run lead, it looked like the Diamondbacks were on the verge of stealing a victory in Game 1 of the World Series. Corey Seager had other plans. On the first pitch he saw from Sewald, Seager launched a one-out, two-run bomb into the right field stands to tie the game at five.

With the game sent to extra innings, the momentum suddenly swung toward the Rangers, whose potent lineup could end the game quickly, even without the benefit of the Manfred Man on second base to start each inning. After a minor threat was quelled in the 10th, who else but Adolis García had the final word, blasting an opposite field, walk-off home run in the 11th to send Globe Life Field into a state of jubilation. Read the rest of this entry »

Cristian Javier had built an impressive postseason resume ahead of Game 7 of the ALCS. Across 12 relief appearances and four starts, he had compiled a 2.08 ERA and 7.5% championship win probability added. His first three starts in the playoffs were particularly impressive; he held the Yankees scoreless on a single hit in last year’s ALCS, was the starting pitcher of the Astros’ combined no-hitter in the World Series, and held the Twins to a single hit in the ALDS this year. His 18 total hits allowed and .123 opponent’s batting average were by far the lowest among any pitcher with more than 40 postseason innings pitched.

With such a strong track record, the Astros had to feel confident handing him the ball on Monday night. But things did not go according to plan, as Javier lasted six batters and recorded just a single out, allowing three runs on four hits and a walk, before getting pulled. It was his worst postseason outing of his career and a big reason why Houston isn’t back in the World Series to defend its championship. Read the rest of this entry »

The rematch of last year’s NLDS between Philadelphia and Atlanta started off the same way it did last October: with a surprising win by the underdog Phillies. They eked out three runs and held the Braves scoreless at home for the first time this year and the first time since August 28, 2021. It was also the Phillies’ seventh consecutive win in the opening game of a postseason series, putting them in the driver’s seat in the five-game series — again.

The biggest weakness of the Philadelphia roster that reached the World Series last year was their bullpen. But the Phillies quietly led all of baseball in pitching WAR this season thanks to a fantastic rotation and a much improved relief corps, with their ‘pen improving its adjusted ERA from 105 to 81. With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola spent during the Wild Card round, the Phillies turned to Ranger Suárez to make the start in Game 1; he turned in a solid effort, lasting 3.2 innings and allowing just three baserunners while striking out four. When he ran into some trouble in the fourth inning, manager Rob Thomson used a quick hook on his starter and handed the game over to his bullpen. Six relievers went on to combine for 5.1 scoreless innings in an impressive display from the team’s most improved unit:

Instead of a dominating performance marked by tons of strikeouts, the Phillies were perfectly satisfied to allow Atlanta to aggressively put the ball in play. No team fared better than the Braves when making contact this year — they led baseball in both wOBA and expected wOBA on contact — but thanks to some phenomenal defense and a healthy dose of contact management, they were frustrated all night long. Read the rest of this entry »

After nearly two decades of postseason futility, the Minnesota Twins not only won a playoff game, they advanced to the next round for the first time since 2002. Their reward? Facing the Houston Astros, who have held a firm grip on the American League over the last six years, reaching the ALCS in each of those seasons to go along with two championships and another pair of AL pennants to boot. On paper, this seems like a classic David versus Goliath matchup, but there are key distinctions between the clubs that should make this a very entertaining series:

The Twins won a weak AL Central with relative ease thanks to one of the best starting rotations in baseball. That pitching staff is a big reason why they’re not simply the token representative from their division but a real threat to make a deep run into the postseason. They might not have quite the same star power of some of the other contenders in the American League, but there are few holes on their roster and it seems like they’re peaking at the right time. Read the rest of this entry »

After missing out on the postseason last year, breaking a four-year streak, the Brewers are back in the playoffs this year. They’ve been the model of consistency over this past half decade; they are the only other team apart from the Astros and Dodgers to have won at least 86 games in each of the last six full seasons. But for all that regular season success, they’ve only won one postseason series during this stretch, a Division Series back in 2018. They have one of the strongest run prevention units in baseball and are hoping that will carry them deep into October.

Milwaukee’s first-round opponent, the Diamondbacks, will be making their first playoff appearance since 2017. They’re breaking out of a long rebuilding cycle a little ahead of schedule thanks to the phenomenal rookie campaign of Corbin Carroll. On paper, they’re significant underdogs when compared to the dominant arms the Brewers can bring to bear, but they’ve got enough young talent to make some noise as a surprise contender:

Read the rest of this entry »

The race to the playoffs provided plenty of drama over the past month. The battle for a Wild Card spot ended up coming down to the wire in both leagues, and the AL West wasn’t completely wrapped up until the final day of the season. But we’ve finally made it to the main event, where anything can happen and underdogs can topple giants. Here’s a look at the 12 teams in the playoffs and how they stack up against each other.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. Since regular season records don’t matter in the playoffs, I’ve removed the factors for win percentage and expected win percentage from the calculations. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve made it to the final week of the season, and both Wild Card races are still up in the air. Unfortunately, MLB’s expanded postseason field has led to the elimination of tiebreaker games in favor of tiebreaker mathematics. So while we’re barreling towards a dramatic finish in both those playoff races, the regular season will be over for good on Sunday. The next edition of these power rankings will evaluate the playoff field next week.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

All the Braves needed to do over these last few weeks of the season was get to the postseason healthy and ready to make a deep run in October, but that plan has begun to unravel a bit. Last week, they placed both Max Fried and Charlie Morton on the IL, though the former should be ready for the NLDS since his injury is just a minor blister issue. Still, losing one of their best starters in Morton isn’t ideal as they head into the playoffs. In more encouraging news, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the fifth player to join the 40–40 club on Friday and is now the only member of the 40–50 and 40–60 clubs; he could even hit the 40–70 mark this week.

The Dodgers put the first nail in the Giants’ coffin, winning three of four against them last weekend. They’ve got a first-round bye locked up but probably won’t be able to chase down the Braves for the best record in baseball during this final week of the season. They’ll spend that time figuring out their playoff rotation and making sure everyone gets to the postseason healthy. To that end, it was encouraging to see Clayton Kershaw spin five shutout innings on Saturday, his second shutout performance in a row, coming off his shoulder injury.

After an up-and-down start to the month, the Rangers have now won five straight, including three against the Mariners last weekend. Injuries have thinned out their pitching staff, but they’ve finally gotten healthy on offense, activating both Adolis García and Josh Jung off the IL last week. Even with the lineup fully stocked, their bullpen may still be their downfall; Texas’ relievers have allowed 65 runs to score in September, tied for second most this month behind the Braves.

With the Rangers taking control of the AL West and the Blue Jays gaining ground in the AL Wild Card race, it seems like the battle over the final Wild Card spot will come down to the Mariners and Astros, both of whom were swept in three games last weekend. Neither team has been playing all that well this month, with nearly identical records (8–13 for Houston and 8–14 for Seattle), and now they’ll face each other three times in Seattle to start this week.

The Orioles suffered through three bullpen meltdowns last week, though they managed a series win in Houston and a split of a four-game series in Cleveland. They’re still in command of the AL East and should enter the playoffs as the top seed. Still, their bullpen hasn’t been as strong since losing Félix Bautista, their All-Star closer; since he went on the IL, Baltimore’s relievers have allowed 50 runs, 16th in the majors. More worrying is their collective strikeout rate, which has fallen to just 17.2% during that stretch. If the O’s want to make a deep run into October, they need their relief corps firing on all cylinders.

The Phillies survived their final gauntlet before the end of the season last week, winning two of three against the Braves and then sweeping the Mets in four games. That all but assures their entry into the postseason as the top Wild Card in the NL. Nick Castellanos blasted five home runs last week, and Bryce Harper chipped in three of his own. They’ve been overshadowed by some of the other powerhouses in the NL and spent a lot of the first half of the season floundering with Harper and Trea Turner scuffling, but they’ve come on strong during the second half of the season.

With a particularly tough schedule during the final week of the season, the Cubs desperately needed some wins against the Rockies last weekend to remain in the NL Wild Card race. They wound up sweeping them in three games and now head into their final six games against the Braves and Brewers tied with the Diamondbacks and a game ahead of the Marlins. Meanwhile, Miami has much easier opponents left on the schedule, though the Marlins will play all six remaining games on the road in New York and Pittsburgh.

That final NL Wild Card spot will almost certainly come down to the Cubs or the Marlins, but the Reds, Giants, and Padres have yet to be eliminated. Chicago’s good fortune last weekend put a damper on the potential miracle run the Padres appeared to be making over the last few weeks. San Diego and San Francisco enter this week tied in the standings, and a lot of things need to go their way if either team is going to sneak into the playoffs. It’s likely too little, too late for the Padres, but they’ve finally been playing up to the level of talent on their roster over the last few weeks. Unfortunately, their record in extra innings games dropped to 0–12 on Saturday, which snapped their eight-game win streak.

The Yankees have some real soul searching to do this offseason, but at least they might have figured out a piece of their starting rotation. Michael King has been utterly dominant since moving out of the bullpen, allowing no more than two runs in any of his seven starts this year. With injuries curtailing the production of many of their other starters this year, King’s emergence has been a huge positive sign to end a disappointing season.

That the Reds even have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs this late in the season has to be seen as a huge success after tearing everything down last year. And while Elly De La Cruz has really struggled with prolonged exposure to big league pitching, Cincinnati has plenty of other youngsters who are making an impact and who should form the core of a potent roster for years to come. The Reds have games against the Guardians and Cardinals this week and need a lot of help elsewhere in the standings to make things interesting for the Cubs and Marlins.

The Royals are ending the season on an incredibly high note; they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games, including five of six from the Astros, and thanks to late-season breakouts from Cole Ragans and Nelson Velázquez, they can head into next year with some hope for the future. Bobby Witt Jr. proved he was the core piece they could build around this year; all of a sudden, there’s some forward momentum for an organization that’s been stuck in reverse for too long.

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The Wild Card races in both leagues continue to be filled with drama as none of the teams vying for those playoff spots have created any daylight in the standings.

A quick aside before we get into the rankings themselves: there has been some discussion about the efficacy and value of these rankings, particularly the team quality metric I’m calculating. I won’t argue that it’s a perfect encapsulation of any given team’s relative strength or the right way to rank teams on a weekly basis, but I did want to share some historical data from last season. In 2022, team quality had a 97% correlation to a team’s final win percentage. In addition, team quality at the All-Star break had a 95% correlation to a team’s final record. The relationship hasn’t been as strong this season with team quality at the All-Star break having a 82% correlation to a team’s current record. It’s possible teams like the Orioles and Padres who are historically over- or under-performing their underlying stats are skewing the relationship and that’s a possible area of research this offseason. Anyway, I’m comfortable with the established relationship between team quality and actual wins to continue using it as a way to compare team strengths.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

With the NL East and a first-round bye into the playoffs locked up, the Braves are simply hoping to get to October with a healthy roster that hasn’t lost its edge. That’s why it’s important to not get too worked up about any extreme swings in results over these last few weeks of the season. Case in point: Atlanta took three of four from the Phillies in a potential NLDS preview early last week before allowing 36 runs across three games in a sweep by the Marlins over the weekend.

The Rays had an opportunity to take over the AL East lead after taking the first two games of their big weekend series against the Orioles. The two best teams in the AL ended up splitting that four game-series and head into this week locked into the same position, with Tampa Bay sitting two games behind Baltimore. One of the biggest reasons why the Rays have been able to keep pace in the division is a much improved bullpen locking down games behind a suddenly stable starting rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re getting to the point in the season where the majority of the teams in these rankings aren’t going to budge. There was a bit of movement at the top of the rankings where three teams are battling for two spots in the AL Wild Card race.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Braves became the first team to secure their postseason berth this season with a series win over the Pirates on Sunday. The man who delivered the game-winning hit? National League MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. Atlanta now has a huge opportunity to affect the NL Wild Card race over the remainder of the season; the Braves play the Phillies seven times over the next ten days and have series against the Marlins and Cubs on the docket, too.

All of a sudden, the Dodgers are facing some real questions on their pitching staff. Julio Urías was placed on Administrative Leave last week after he was arrested and charged with felony domestic violence charges; he’s unlikely to pitch again this season. The team also announced that Walker Buehler won’t return from his Tommy John rehab this year, pushing his return to 2024. Clayton Kershaw seems to be feeling the ill effects of his shoulder injury; his last two starts featured a significant dip in fastball velocity, and his next start was pushed back to Friday in the hopes that he can bounce back physically. At least the Dodgers dodged a bullet after Mookie Betts fouled a pitch off his toe on Thursday; there was no major damage, and he was back in the lineup on Sunday.

With both the Mariners and Rangers faltering to begin September, the Blue Jays have taken advantage of their soft schedule to win seven of their nine games this month and vault themselves over those two teams in the AL Wild Card race. Davis Schneider has continued his surprising assault on big league pitching, and Bo Bichette came off the IL last weekend. They’ve got a huge four-game series against the Rangers this week, which should prove to be a test of how competitive they really are.

There’s nothing like a series win against the A’s to wipe away the memory of allowing 39 runs to the Astros. The Rangers were completely outclassed against Houston, another huge wakeup call amidst a protracted slide down the standings. To make matters worse, Adolis García hit the IL with a strained patellar tendon, though he’s expected to be back on the field before the season ends if everything goes well.

I understand: It’s weird that the Orioles, the team with the best record in the AL, sit behind four other teams in their league and in the third tier in these rankings. But no matter how you slice it — base runs, pythagorean record, or this team quality metric — they’re continuing to outperform their underlying stats by significant margins. Yes, they just rattled off a seven-game win streak that was finally broken on Sunday; yes, they’re getting contributions from all over their roster right now; and yes, they’ve barely skipped a beat since losing Félix Bautista a few weeks ago. But on paper, they’re not as strong as some of the other teams in the AL playoff picture, even if they’ll probably end up with the top seed and a first-round bye when the playoffs officially start.

Surprise, Trea Turner hit another home run on Sunday, his ninth over his last ten games. Unfortunately, the Phillies lost that game and the series to the Marlins. They’re still 4.5 games ahead of Miami and in control of the top Wild Card spot in the NL, but their schedule gets tough over the next two weeks; they won’t have an off day until the final week of the season, and they play the Braves seven times over the next ten days.

The Twins stood pat at the trade deadline, banking on the already assembled talent on their roster rather than trying to find marginal upgrades at the cost of future value. Their gamble has largely paid off, as they lead the AL Central by 7.5 games and have easily weathered a last-minute rally by the Guardians. The man leading the charge on offense has been oft-injured former top prospect Royce Lewis. He blasted three grand slams in an eight-game span and has been on fire since returning from an oblique strain in mid-August with a 170 wRC+.

In the midst of battling for an NL Wild Card berth, the Diamondbacks called up their top prospect, shortstop Jordan Lawlar, on Thursday. They’re hoping that infusion of youth can give them the boost they need to secure a playoff spot. While he collected just a single hit over his first three games, Arizona won a critical four-game series against the Cubs over the weekend. Those two teams will battle again this weekend in another three-game series.

In a disappointing turn of events, Yankees top prospect Jasson Domínguez tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery. The recovery period for position players is significantly shorter than for pitchers, as Bryce Harper proved this year, but it still cuts short a promising start to his big league career.

The Marlins have won eight of their last 10 games, including series wins against the Dogders and Phillies, to stay hot on the heels of the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Unfortunately, they’ll be making their postseason push without Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Soler, who were both placed on the IL last week. There’s no clear timeline for either, but it’s certainly possible they’ve both played their final innings this season. Those are some pretty significant hurdles Miami will have to overcome to continue playing baseball in October.

Things haven’t gone very well on the field for the Nationals, though probably better than expected since there’s a shot they’ll wind up ahead of the Mets in the NL East standings by the end of the season. It makes things all the more frustrating when off-field events reflect poorly on the organization on top of all the losing. That’s what happened last week, when a retirement ceremony for Stephen Strasburg was walked back by the team with the details apparently still being worked out. It was a bad look for the organization and a poor way to treat the superstar pitcher who almost literally gave his arm to win a World Series back in 2019.

After a sweep by the Blue Jays over the weekend, the Royals entered play on Monday with the worst record in baseball. Somehow, they’ve slipped behind Oakland with just eight wins under their belt since August 5. Thankfully, there are a few positive signs as the season winds down. Cole Ragans had a 26-inning scoreless streak snapped on Sunday, and in a particularly odd manner, too. He’s been dominant for Kansas City since coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade and looks like a key building block.

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We’ve finally made it to the last month of the regular season, and there are still a handful of exciting, drama-filled postseason races to hold our attention until the playoffs begin in earnest.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

In a potential NLCS preview, the Braves and the Dodgers played four drama-filled games last weekend, with Atlanta prevailing in three of them. That series win all but guarantees the Braves will head into the postseason with the top seed in the National League and likely the best record in baseball should they advance all the way to the World Series. That might be putting the cart before the horse, but that’s the trajectory they’ve been on all season long, and anything less would likely be seen as a disappointment.

Instead of withering under the considerable amount of attrition they’ve suffered this year, the Rays have continued to put pressure on the Orioles in the race for the AL East crown. They’ve gone 17–9 since losing Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery in early August and 12–6 since Wander Franco was placed on administrative leave. They did suffer a bit of a stumble against the Guardians last weekend, though, losing their first series since August 8–10, then came up short against the Red Sox on Labor Day.

The Rangers began a huge series against the Astros on Monday with an ugly 13–6 loss. They did pick up a series win against the Mets early last week but just barely avoided a sweep at the hands of the Twins on Sunday with a walk-off win. Their only saving grace during this poor stretch of play has been the concurrent struggles of the Mariners and Astros. Seattle lost its series against the Mets last weekend, which was barely better than the sweep Houston suffered against the Yankees. These three teams are still separated by a single game atop the AL West.

The Phillies have solidified their place at the top of the NL Wild Card race with an excellent August where they went 17–10. The driver of the train? Bryce Harper, who has finally regained his power stroke after offseason elbow surgery and blasted eight home runs in a two-week span to close out last month. Not to be outdone, Trea Turner is in the midst of a 15-game hit streak, compiling 24 hits and 10 home runs during his torrid stretch. Since receiving a standing ovation on August 4, he has hit .364/.398/.764 (206 wRC+).

The Cubs had a big week with back-to-back series against the Brewers and Reds, the two teams directly ahead of and behind them in the NL Central standings. They wound up going 4–3 with a series win against Milwaukee and a series split against Cincinnati that included two heartbreaking walk-off losses. Justin Steele continues to bolster his stealthy Cy Young candidacy, and Kyle Hendricks has regained his pre-pandemic funk, while Cody Bellinger continues to power the offense.

Entering Monday, the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, and Giants were all tied for the final position in the NL Wild Card race. Miami was idle, and Arizona and Cincinnati won their games yesterday. Unfortunately, San Francisco dropped its fourth straight to fall behind the pace by a game. The Giants are still reeling from all the injuries that have tested their depth, though they did activate Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Crawford off the IL. Even with all those reinforcements, their offense is ice cold; they’ve scored just four total runs during this losing streak and have been shut out in back-to-back games.

With the AL East well out of reach and the Wild Card a distant pipe dream, the Yankees called up a couple of their prospects last weekend to get them some valuable experience in the big leagues this month. Jasson Domínguez, their top ranked prospect, homered in his first major league at-bat against Justin Verlander and added a second dinger on Sunday as the Yankees swept the Astros. The wins are too little, too late, but the standout performances from the youngsters give New York a ray of hope during a lost season.

The Reds and Guardians were the big winners in the wacky waiver wire sweepstakes last week. It was a little surprising to see the Guardians claim three pitchers; they’re so far behind the Twins in the AL Central that their playoff odds are in the single digits. To their credit, they made the claims after winning a three-game set against Minnesota, then went out and won their weekend series against the Rays for good measure. Of course, in Lucas Giolito’s debut with Cleveland on Monday, he allowed nine runs — to the Twins no less! — in an ugly 20–6 defeat to start another critical series against the division leader.

Just a month after trading for a handful of guys in the hopes that they could salvage another disappointing season and make the postseason with both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout on their roster, the Angels wound up waiving five of those six trade deadline acquisitions in an attempt to get under the luxury tax threshold to improve their draft position when Ohtani inevitably leaves in free agency this offseason. It was a bizarre move with a cynical end goal, made all the more hilarious because apparently they wound up just a hair over the threshold anyway. At least Nolan Schanuel looks pretty interesting, as far as a first base prospect can be.

If you’re looking for a team to channel its inner Wario and create the most chaos for teams in the playoff hunt, look no further than the Mets. Twenty-three of their remaining 25 games are against teams looking to secure a playoff spot, with their two-game series against the Nationals this week the only exception. They played their role as spoiler well last weekend, winning two of three against the Mariners.

On the flip side, the Tigers have just nine games with playoff implications remaining on their schedule, and three of those are against the Guardians during the last week of the season. Detroit’s youngsters will still get valuable development time as they play out the string, but most of the team’s games will matter more for draft position than the playoff aspirations of their opponents.

The Rockies also have a chance to play spoiler down the stretch, with 22 of their remaining 25 games against teams with playoff hopes. They lost series to the Braves and Blue Jays last week and started a series with the Diamondbacks with another loss on Monday. Where the Mets actually have the talent to actually play spoiler, the Rockies seem to be a minor nuisance for those playoff-bound teams.

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