The Wild Card races in both leagues continue to be filled with drama as none of the teams vying for those playoff spots have created any daylight in the standings.

A quick aside before we get into the rankings themselves: there has been some discussion about the efficacy and value of these rankings, particularly the team quality metric I’m calculating. I won’t argue that it’s a perfect encapsulation of any given team’s relative strength or the right way to rank teams on a weekly basis, but I did want to share some historical data from last season. In 2022, team quality had a 97% correlation to a team’s final win percentage. In addition, team quality at the All-Star break had a 95% correlation to a team’s final record. The relationship hasn’t been as strong this season with team quality at the All-Star break having a 82% correlation to a team’s current record. It’s possible teams like the Orioles and Padres who are historically over- or under-performing their underlying stats are skewing the relationship and that’s a possible area of research this offseason. Anyway, I’m comfortable with the established relationship between team quality and actual wins to continue using it as a way to compare team strengths.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

With the NL East and a first-round bye into the playoffs locked up, the Braves are simply hoping to get to October with a healthy roster that hasn’t lost its edge. That’s why it’s important to not get too worked up about any extreme swings in results over these last few weeks of the season. Case in point: Atlanta took three of four from the Phillies in a potential NLDS preview early last week before allowing 36 runs across three games in a sweep by the Marlins over the weekend.

The Rays had an opportunity to take over the AL East lead after taking the first two games of their big weekend series against the Orioles. The two best teams in the AL ended up splitting that four game-series and head into this week locked into the same position, with Tampa Bay sitting two games behind Baltimore. One of the biggest reasons why the Rays have been able to keep pace in the division is a much improved bullpen locking down games behind a suddenly stable starting rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re getting to the point in the season where the majority of the teams in these rankings aren’t going to budge. There was a bit of movement at the top of the rankings where three teams are battling for two spots in the AL Wild Card race.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Braves became the first team to secure their postseason berth this season with a series win over the Pirates on Sunday. The man who delivered the game-winning hit? National League MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. Atlanta now has a huge opportunity to affect the NL Wild Card race over the remainder of the season; the Braves play the Phillies seven times over the next ten days and have series against the Marlins and Cubs on the docket, too.

All of a sudden, the Dodgers are facing some real questions on their pitching staff. Julio Urías was placed on Administrative Leave last week after he was arrested and charged with felony domestic violence charges; he’s unlikely to pitch again this season. The team also announced that Walker Buehler won’t return from his Tommy John rehab this year, pushing his return to 2024. Clayton Kershaw seems to be feeling the ill effects of his shoulder injury; his last two starts featured a significant dip in fastball velocity, and his next start was pushed back to Friday in the hopes that he can bounce back physically. At least the Dodgers dodged a bullet after Mookie Betts fouled a pitch off his toe on Thursday; there was no major damage, and he was back in the lineup on Sunday.

With both the Mariners and Rangers faltering to begin September, the Blue Jays have taken advantage of their soft schedule to win seven of their nine games this month and vault themselves over those two teams in the AL Wild Card race. Davis Schneider has continued his surprising assault on big league pitching, and Bo Bichette came off the IL last weekend. They’ve got a huge four-game series against the Rangers this week, which should prove to be a test of how competitive they really are.

There’s nothing like a series win against the A’s to wipe away the memory of allowing 39 runs to the Astros. The Rangers were completely outclassed against Houston, another huge wakeup call amidst a protracted slide down the standings. To make matters worse, Adolis García hit the IL with a strained patellar tendon, though he’s expected to be back on the field before the season ends if everything goes well.

I understand: It’s weird that the Orioles, the team with the best record in the AL, sit behind four other teams in their league and in the third tier in these rankings. But no matter how you slice it — base runs, pythagorean record, or this team quality metric — they’re continuing to outperform their underlying stats by significant margins. Yes, they just rattled off a seven-game win streak that was finally broken on Sunday; yes, they’re getting contributions from all over their roster right now; and yes, they’ve barely skipped a beat since losing Félix Bautista a few weeks ago. But on paper, they’re not as strong as some of the other teams in the AL playoff picture, even if they’ll probably end up with the top seed and a first-round bye when the playoffs officially start.

Surprise, Trea Turner hit another home run on Sunday, his ninth over his last ten games. Unfortunately, the Phillies lost that game and the series to the Marlins. They’re still 4.5 games ahead of Miami and in control of the top Wild Card spot in the NL, but their schedule gets tough over the next two weeks; they won’t have an off day until the final week of the season, and they play the Braves seven times over the next ten days.

The Twins stood pat at the trade deadline, banking on the already assembled talent on their roster rather than trying to find marginal upgrades at the cost of future value. Their gamble has largely paid off, as they lead the AL Central by 7.5 games and have easily weathered a last-minute rally by the Guardians. The man leading the charge on offense has been oft-injured former top prospect Royce Lewis. He blasted three grand slams in an eight-game span and has been on fire since returning from an oblique strain in mid-August with a 170 wRC+.

In the midst of battling for an NL Wild Card berth, the Diamondbacks called up their top prospect, shortstop Jordan Lawlar, on Thursday. They’re hoping that infusion of youth can give them the boost they need to secure a playoff spot. While he collected just a single hit over his first three games, Arizona won a critical four-game series against the Cubs over the weekend. Those two teams will battle again this weekend in another three-game series.

In a disappointing turn of events, Yankees top prospect Jasson Domínguez tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery. The recovery period for position players is significantly shorter than for pitchers, as Bryce Harper proved this year, but it still cuts short a promising start to his big league career.

The Marlins have won eight of their last 10 games, including series wins against the Dogders and Phillies, to stay hot on the heels of the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Unfortunately, they’ll be making their postseason push without Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Soler, who were both placed on the IL last week. There’s no clear timeline for either, but it’s certainly possible they’ve both played their final innings this season. Those are some pretty significant hurdles Miami will have to overcome to continue playing baseball in October.

Things haven’t gone very well on the field for the Nationals, though probably better than expected since there’s a shot they’ll wind up ahead of the Mets in the NL East standings by the end of the season. It makes things all the more frustrating when off-field events reflect poorly on the organization on top of all the losing. That’s what happened last week, when a retirement ceremony for Stephen Strasburg was walked back by the team with the details apparently still being worked out. It was a bad look for the organization and a poor way to treat the superstar pitcher who almost literally gave his arm to win a World Series back in 2019.

After a sweep by the Blue Jays over the weekend, the Royals entered play on Monday with the worst record in baseball. Somehow, they’ve slipped behind Oakland with just eight wins under their belt since August 5. Thankfully, there are a few positive signs as the season winds down. Cole Ragans had a 26-inning scoreless streak snapped on Sunday, and in a particularly odd manner, too. He’s been dominant for Kansas City since coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade and looks like a key building block.

…

We’ve finally made it to the last month of the regular season, and there are still a handful of exciting, drama-filled postseason races to hold our attention until the playoffs begin in earnest.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

In a potential NLCS preview, the Braves and the Dodgers played four drama-filled games last weekend, with Atlanta prevailing in three of them. That series win all but guarantees the Braves will head into the postseason with the top seed in the National League and likely the best record in baseball should they advance all the way to the World Series. That might be putting the cart before the horse, but that’s the trajectory they’ve been on all season long, and anything less would likely be seen as a disappointment.

Instead of withering under the considerable amount of attrition they’ve suffered this year, the Rays have continued to put pressure on the Orioles in the race for the AL East crown. They’ve gone 17–9 since losing Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery in early August and 12–6 since Wander Franco was placed on administrative leave. They did suffer a bit of a stumble against the Guardians last weekend, though, losing their first series since August 8–10, then came up short against the Red Sox on Labor Day.

The Rangers began a huge series against the Astros on Monday with an ugly 13–6 loss. They did pick up a series win against the Mets early last week but just barely avoided a sweep at the hands of the Twins on Sunday with a walk-off win. Their only saving grace during this poor stretch of play has been the concurrent struggles of the Mariners and Astros. Seattle lost its series against the Mets last weekend, which was barely better than the sweep Houston suffered against the Yankees. These three teams are still separated by a single game atop the AL West.

The Phillies have solidified their place at the top of the NL Wild Card race with an excellent August where they went 17–10. The driver of the train? Bryce Harper, who has finally regained his power stroke after offseason elbow surgery and blasted eight home runs in a two-week span to close out last month. Not to be outdone, Trea Turner is in the midst of a 15-game hit streak, compiling 24 hits and 10 home runs during his torrid stretch. Since receiving a standing ovation on August 4, he has hit .364/.398/.764 (206 wRC+).

The Cubs had a big week with back-to-back series against the Brewers and Reds, the two teams directly ahead of and behind them in the NL Central standings. They wound up going 4–3 with a series win against Milwaukee and a series split against Cincinnati that included two heartbreaking walk-off losses. Justin Steele continues to bolster his stealthy Cy Young candidacy, and Kyle Hendricks has regained his pre-pandemic funk, while Cody Bellinger continues to power the offense.

Entering Monday, the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, and Giants were all tied for the final position in the NL Wild Card race. Miami was idle, and Arizona and Cincinnati won their games yesterday. Unfortunately, San Francisco dropped its fourth straight to fall behind the pace by a game. The Giants are still reeling from all the injuries that have tested their depth, though they did activate Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Crawford off the IL. Even with all those reinforcements, their offense is ice cold; they’ve scored just four total runs during this losing streak and have been shut out in back-to-back games.

With the AL East well out of reach and the Wild Card a distant pipe dream, the Yankees called up a couple of their prospects last weekend to get them some valuable experience in the big leagues this month. Jasson Domínguez, their top ranked prospect, homered in his first major league at-bat against Justin Verlander and added a second dinger on Sunday as the Yankees swept the Astros. The wins are too little, too late, but the standout performances from the youngsters give New York a ray of hope during a lost season.

The Reds and Guardians were the big winners in the wacky waiver wire sweepstakes last week. It was a little surprising to see the Guardians claim three pitchers; they’re so far behind the Twins in the AL Central that their playoff odds are in the single digits. To their credit, they made the claims after winning a three-game set against Minnesota, then went out and won their weekend series against the Rays for good measure. Of course, in Lucas Giolito’s debut with Cleveland on Monday, he allowed nine runs — to the Twins no less! — in an ugly 20–6 defeat to start another critical series against the division leader.

Just a month after trading for a handful of guys in the hopes that they could salvage another disappointing season and make the postseason with both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout on their roster, the Angels wound up waiving five of those six trade deadline acquisitions in an attempt to get under the luxury tax threshold to improve their draft position when Ohtani inevitably leaves in free agency this offseason. It was a bizarre move with a cynical end goal, made all the more hilarious because apparently they wound up just a hair over the threshold anyway. At least Nolan Schanuel looks pretty interesting, as far as a first base prospect can be.

If you’re looking for a team to channel its inner Wario and create the most chaos for teams in the playoff hunt, look no further than the Mets. Twenty-three of their remaining 25 games are against teams looking to secure a playoff spot, with their two-game series against the Nationals this week the only exception. They played their role as spoiler well last weekend, winning two of three against the Mariners.

On the flip side, the Tigers have just nine games with playoff implications remaining on their schedule, and three of those are against the Guardians during the last week of the season. Detroit’s youngsters will still get valuable development time as they play out the string, but most of the team’s games will matter more for draft position than the playoff aspirations of their opponents.

The Rockies also have a chance to play spoiler down the stretch, with 22 of their remaining 25 games against teams with playoff hopes. They lost series to the Braves and Blue Jays last week and started a series with the Diamondbacks with another loss on Monday. Where the Mets actually have the talent to actually play spoiler, the Rockies seem to be a minor nuisance for those playoff-bound teams.

…

After a week hiatus, the FanGraphs Power Rankings are back and there’s been a pretty big shakeup in the top tiers. And as we head into the final month of the season, there are plenty of exciting playoff races still up in the air.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After the recent collapse of the Rangers, the Braves now stand alone atop these rankings. They’re on cruise control right now, with the NL East locked up and a first round bye into the divisional round all but guaranteed. They’ve won 13 of their last 16 games, with six shutouts and just 2.9 runs allowed per game during this stretch. They’ve got a huge four-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers this weekend that could go a long way towards determining the top seed in the NL.

No team in baseball is hotter right now than the Mariners. As recently as mid-July, they were 10 games behind Texas, but they’ve lost just five games in August and have surpassed both the Rangers and the Astros to take the division lead in the AL West. It’s the first time the M’s have led their division this late in the season since 2003. The offense that had been so frustratingly inconsistent earlier in the season has exploded this month; they’re scoring more than six runs per game and lead all of baseball with a 147 wRC+ in August.

A 4-2 record last week marked the low point of the Dodgers’ August; those two losses were just the third and fourth of the month for Los Angeles. They’re being led by two guys who are suddenly challenging Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP race: Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. The former is in the midst of the best full season of his career at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths. Betts, meanwhile, enjoyed an emotional return to Boston this weekend and extended his hitting streak to 15 games.

After starting the month with an eight-game win streak and 12 wins in their first 14 games in August, the Rangers have been in free fall since then. A win on Saturday snapped an eight-game losing streak, but they lost an ugly, 13-inning walk-off affair in Minnesota on Sunday. That dropped them to second place in the AL West, the first time they’ve been out of the top spot since April 8. Their bullpen in particular has been a sore spot during this stretch; Texas relievers have allowed 35 runs over their last 10 games, with six blown saves.

The Orioles were dealt a serious blow when their ace closer Félix Bautista was sidelined with elbow discomfort last week. Losing a pitcher of Bautista’s caliber would be a problem for any club, but for Baltimore, it’s a tremendous loss. So much of the O’s success this season has hinged on the success of their bullpen. Their shot at the playoffs probably isn’t threatened, but their grip on the AL East division lead is suddenly a little more tenuous.

With the Mariners budging in, the fight for the AL West crown is suddenly very crowded. The Astros have played second fiddle to the Rangers all season long, but now they have a third team to contend with. The ‘Stros offense has been frustratingly inconsistent this month; they’ve had just as many games where they score nine or more runs as they’ve had games where they score two or fewer. Kyle Tucker has been a rock in the middle of their lineup, and Jose Altuve has been fantastic since returning from his thumb injury, but Yordan Alvarez has been kept in check by various maladies, and both José Abreu and Jeremy Peña have been great disappointments this year.

The Brewers won their eighth straight game on Sunday and have now extended their lead in the NL Central to four games. They have a huge series against the Cubs on the docket this week, which could go a long way towards determining how close this division race is going to be down the stretch. Milwaukee’s offense has come alive lately, scoring more than seven runs per game after notching just three total runs during the three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers that immediately preceded this win streak. That’s a very good sign, as run scoring has been such an issue for them during this recent competitive window.

Thanks to a floundering offense and an extremely thin pitching staff, the Giants have fallen out of Wild Card position, sitting even with Cincinnati at a game and a half back of the Diamondbacks. The depth of their roster has been strained to the breaking point by a cavalcade of injuries. They have key series against the Reds and Cubs coming up over the next two weeks, and they desperately need some positive results in those matchups to stay in the playoff picture.

Meanwhile, the roller coaster the Diamondbacks are riding is currently back on the upswing. They started the month with a nine-game losing streak, but they’ve gone 12-3 over their last 15 games to get right back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They just won a huge four-game series against the Reds over the weekend, one that featured one of the most dynamic single plays you’ll ever see.

The teams in this tier are tangibly better than those in the tier below, but they’ve either fallen out of the playoff picture or are such long shots that they fit better as a potential spoiler than a true contender. The Padres exemplify this contrast; they’re underlying team quality is solid but they’re just too far back in the NL Wild Card race to truly make a run at it. Of course, being a good team that isn’t really good enough has plenty of rough implications for their future. The talent on their roster looked dominant on paper, but the actual results on the field have been disappointing to say the least. After getting swept by the Brewers over the weekend, you can probably put a pin in San Diego’s slim postseason hopes.

Speaking of teams at a crossroads, a 2-12 record over the last few weeks has sunk whatever last hopes the Yankees had of making a postseason run this year. If things keep going this way, they’ll finish in last place in the AL East for the first time since 1990; it would be their first losing season since 1992. To make matters worse, their future outlook seems pretty bleak unless they’re able to miraculously fill their aging roster with young talent. For the first time in nearly three decades, the Yanks are facing the decision to rebuild, or at least reset, their roster.

As if things weren’t bad enough for the Angels, Shohei Ohtani injured his UCL last week and is done pitching for the season (and perhaps next season, too, depending on the severity of the tear). That same day, they placed Mike Trout back on the IL after he played in just a single game thanks to renewed discomfort in his left hand. Los Angeles was already well out of the playoff picture thanks to a ghastly 7-17 record in August, but depriving baseball of two of its greatest talents is a tragedy.

In the midst of another lost season, the Tigers finally have something to give them a shred of hope: the breakouts of Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter. After a really rough introduction to the big leagues, the former first overall pick is finally close to living up to the hype surrounding his draft selection and ascent through the minor leagues. Meanwhile, Carpenter’s emergence has largely flown under the radar, but he’s been Detroit’s best hitter since getting called up last August. The Tigers have plenty of work left to do before breaking out of this rebuild cycle, but those two hitters give them another pair of building blocks to work with.

Things finally came to a head for White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams and general manager Rick Hahn last week. The architects of the team for nearly two decades, both were fired from their roles, as Chicago has squandered a bunch of young talent over the past few years. The White Sox will head into next year in search of a new direction, though with Jerry Reinsdorf still in place as the team’s owner, it remains to be seen how different of a course they can chart.

…

What a difference a week makes. With plenty of teams streaking up and down the standings, the playoff picture in both leagues is as murky as ever. We’re also at the point in the season where we can start thinking about which teams are positioned to play spoiler down the stretch.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rangers continued their red-hot August with series wins against the A’s and Giants last week. They’re just three games behind the Orioles for the best record in the American League and have held off the surging Astros and Mariners to maintain their grip on the AL West.

The Braves emerged from their most congested portion of their schedule with five wins in eight games last week. They outscored the Mets 34–3 over the first three games of their four-game weekend series before losing on Sunday night, 7–6. Matt Olson took over the MLB home run lead by blasting four last week; he’s now up to 43 on the season, already a career high.

All of a sudden, the Rays are facing all sorts of woes. On Saturday, they placed Shane McClanahan on the 60-day IL with a forearm injury that will cost him the rest of the season. For a team that’s already lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to season-ending injuries (not to mention the back issue that forced Tyler Glasnow to miss his start last week), it’s another unfortunate hit to the pitching depth. Then, on Sunday, reports emerged that Wander Franco was being investigated regarding some concerning social media posts.

The Blue Jays have struggled with consistency all season long; to wit, they split a series with the Guardians and lost a series to the Cubs last week, allowing the surging Mariners to come within a game and a half of the final Wild Card spot in the AL. With Hyun Jin Ryu back from his Tommy John surgery and Yusei Kikuchi in the middle of the best run of his career, Toronto optioned Alek Manoah back to Triple-A to continue working out his issues. Bo Bichette still looks like he’s a couple of weeks away from returning from his knee injury, though Jordan Romano and Kevin Kiermaier look like they’ll be back from the IL this week.

The Dodgers have lost just once in August and pushed their current win streak to eight games with a sweep of the Rockies last weekend. They didn’t have the splashiest of trade deadlines, but Lance Lynn has surprisingly provided some stability to a starting rotation that is only just now getting healthy again, and Clayton Kershaw was activated from the IL last week and contributed a solid start on Thursday. Los Angeles now has a commanding 8.5-game lead in the NL West, a shocking gap considering it wasn’t even in first place at the All-Star break.

Wednesday was a night of celebration for the Phillies: Weston Wilson crushed a home run in his first major league plate appearance; Nick Castellanos blasted two home runs, the second of which was his 200th career dinger; and as the headlining act, Michael Lorenzen fired a no-hitter in his first start in Philadelphia since coming over at the trade deadline. They couldn’t keep the good vibes going over the weekend, scoring just once over their final two games against the Twins. Still, the struggles of every other NL Wild Card hopeful have given the Phillies a three-game lead in that race.

The Giants barely avoided a sweep at the hands of the Rangers with a dramatic, walk-off win in the tenth inning on Sunday. That victory salvaged a 2–4 week and helped them stay 1.5 games ahead of the Marlins in the NL Wild Card race. That series against Texas began an extremely tough stretch of schedule against playoff contenders that includes the Rays, Braves (twice), Phillies, Reds, Padres, and Cubs before finally easing up in September.

The Padres are quickly running out of opportunities to turn their season around at the last minute. After a particularly lackluster performance in a losing effort in Seattle on Wednesday, there were some pointed comments from Juan Soto after the game. They bounced back in their first game against the Diamondbacks in a huge weekend series but lost on Saturday and Sunday and are now 5.5 games back for the final wild card spot. They’ll have another shot at Arizona this weekend, which now seems like a make-or-break series.

After an ugly 2–8 stretch to start the month, the Red Sox have gotten back on track with series wins against the Royals and Tigers last week. Trevor Story, Chris Sale, and Garrett Whitlock are back off the IL, and Triston Casas is powering the offense nearly singlehandedly. That’s a lot of last-minute reinforcements for Boston, which has a lot of work to do to get back into the AL Wild Card race.

The Angels showed some signs of life in a series win against the Giants early last week, but they were short-lived; the Astros handed them back-to-back 11–3 defeats over the weekend, and Los Angeles barely avoided a sweep with a close 2–1 victory on Sunday. The Angels’ postseason hopes are hanging by a thread, and they’re almost at the point where they need to start looking toward an Ohtani-less season next year. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to affect the playoff picture by playing spoiler down the stretch, but they need to find ways to get some of their youngsters more playing time to assess what they’re working with moving forward.

The four-way race for the final NL Wild Card spot ended this week with the Marlins a half-game ahead of the Reds and Cubs. They got there thanks to a series win against Cincinnati earlier in the week and then a dramatic series win against the Yankees capped off by a walk-off victory on Sunday. All four teams won their series over the weekend, though Arizona is at a significant disadvantage thanks to its slide down the standings earlier in the month.

The race for the final two protected draft lottery picks is probably going to come down to these five teams. They’re separated by just a single game in the standings, and each of them looks stronger than the bottom four teams in the standings (though the Nationals are actually ineligible to receive a lottery pick since they earned one last year). These five teams are also the most likely to play spoiler down the stretch, since all of them can put together a competitive performance on any given night.

If there’s one thing Rockies fans could enjoy about their team during these lean years, it was a winning record at home. Over the last decade, Colorado has posted a losing record in Coors Field twice, and one of those years was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. They’re at risk of losing that home field advantage this year, having gone 25–30 so far. They still have home series against the Diamondbacks, Braves, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, and Twins on the docket, which means they could play a significant role as a spoiler down the stretch — but only if they can turn Coors Field back into a tough place to play in.

…

As we head into the dog days of August, the playoff picture in the National League continues to be pretty murky. Meanwhile, in the American League, the best teams continue to separate themselves from the chaff.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After going all-in on this season last weekend with their acquisitions of Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, the Rangers swept through last week with six straight wins. That’s given them a little bit of breathing room in the AL West. Unfortunately, their All-Star third baseman Josh Jung fractured his thumb on Sunday, potentially ending his season early. He’ll join Jonah Heim on the IL; suddenly, the best offense in the AL has suddenly sprung a few leaks. Read the rest of this entry »

After shipping Enrique Hernández back to Los Angeles last week, the Red Sox addressed their newfound lack of infield depth with a last-minute trade right before Tuesday’s trade deadline, acquiring Luis Urías from the Brewers for right-handed pitching prospect Bradley Blalock.

Urías only turned 26 years old in June, but he’s already had six years of big league experience under his belt. He was a highly regarded prospect with the Padres before getting dealt to the Brewers in the Trent Grisham trade ahead of the 2020 season, then broke out the next year, posting a 112 wRC+ with 23 home runs and a .249/.345/.445 slash line. That kind of production from an infielder who can capably play anywhere on the dirt seemed to solidify him as a core piece in Milwaukee’s lineup. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury suffered on the first day of the season cost him all of April and May, and once he returned from his injury, he was a shell of his former self, limping to a 60 wRC+ in 20 games in June and getting demoted to Triple-A at the end of the month. Since then, he’s posted a .250/.392/.447 slash line in 20 games for Triple-A Nashville, good for a 113 wRC+. Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline is just 24 hours away, but there’s been plenty of action already. Let’s check in on the league ahead of the final stretch.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

A week after winning two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Braves swept them in Atlanta over the weekend. With the entire roster firing on all cylinders, any additions they make will likely be around the margins — something they’ve already begun doing by adding some depth to their bullpen and infield via Pierce Johnson and Nicky Lopez. Their only concern now is ensuring they aren’t peaking early and to get to October healthy. Read the rest of this entry »

The first FanGraphs Power Rankings of the second half of the season are here, and there are some significant movers in the rankings. As we hurtle toward the trade deadline, teams on the bubble have rapidly closing windows to get into the playoff picture or be left behind.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Braves haven’t exactly had the smoothest start to the second half, losing consecutive series to the White Sox and Diamondbacks before taking two of three from the Brewers over the weekend, but they’re still miles ahead of any other team in the National League. As long as Ronald Acuña Jr. continues playing like the MVP favorite and Spencer Strider continues pitching like the Cy Young favorite, they’ll have an easy time walking into the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year.

The Rangers raced out with six straight wins after the All-Star break, including a sweep of the Rays earlier this week. The good times came to a halt over the weekend, as they were outscored 31–16 by the Dodgers. To make matters worse, Corey Seager exited Friday’s game with a sprained thumb, putting him on the IL for the second time this season. His timeline to return is still unclear, but Texas was able to weather his absence back in April.

The Rays limped into the All-Star break, and things haven’t gotten better since. They won their first series against the Royals but were swept by the Rangers and then lost a huge four-game series against the Orioles over the weekend, dropping them into second place in the AL East for the first time this season. The biggest problem has been an offense that’s suddenly a little inconsistent; they’ve scored just 4.1 runs per game over their last 20 contests and have scored more than five runs just once over their last 10. Read the rest of this entry »

As the baseball world celebrates the All-Star festivities in Seattle this week, let’s take a look at how every team stacks up with the first half of the season at an end.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Braves had their nine-game win streak snapped on Tuesday but managed to win both of their series last week anyway, including a huge three-game set against the Rays over the weekend. After his slight hiccup at the start of June, Spencer Strider has gotten his outstanding season back on track; he held Tampa Bay scoreless over 6.1 innings on Saturday, striking out 11. Atlanta heads into the All-Star break with the best record in baseball and plenty of momentum for the second half of the season.

Both the Rays and the Rangers have slipped recently. Tampa Bay snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 10-run outburst on Sunday after scoring just eight runs in five games previous. Those struggles have allowed the Orioles to close the gap in the AL East to just two games. Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t won a series since taking two of three from the White Sox back on June 19–21. The team has done some early work to try to improve the roster, trading for Aroldis Chapman on June 30, but that hasn’t significantly impacted the results yet. The Rangers are also heading into the All-Star break just two games up in their division. Read the rest of this entry »