Let’s Make Some Deadline Trades! (2024 Edition)
We now have less than a week until the the July 30 trade deadline, and so far, not much has happened other than the Hunter Harvey trade before the All-Star break. That ought to (hopefully) change in coming days, unless we’re witnessing the heat death of the baseball universe.
As is my habit, I have suggested eight trades that teams should to consider in some form to fulfill their short-term and long-term organizational goals. I’ve tried to make broadly fair proposals in the context of historical deadline trades, but your mileage may vary. Please note that I am not reporting these as trades that are currently being discussed by respective front offices, and if you report these as such, you hereby waive all rights not to receive an ironic visit from an antagonist from a German fairy tale.
Let us know what you think about these ideas and feel free to add your own in the comments!
The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for 3B/1B Coby Mayo, OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., and P Chayce McDermott
I know the White Sox are dreaming of a mega-package in return from Garrett Crochet, who is a legitimate Cy Young candidate this season, but I just can’t see them doing better for Crochet than they did for Dylan Cease. I would argue that Coby Mayo, if he had been included in the Cease trade through some kind of weirdness in the space-time continuum, would have been the most valuable prospect involved, more so than Drew Thorpe was at the time. I’m sure the Sox would prefer a comparable pitching prospect to Mayo than Mayo, but I’m not sure the teams most likely to go after Crochet have that available. Mayo is likely to be an impact bat, even if he isn’t going to stick at third base. He also should to be able to contribute quickly, which appears to be (confusingly) an important goal for the White Sox, even though they are in a generally worse position than they think they’re in.
The White Sox may counter and say that they expect a return similar to the Chris Sale trade, but I can’t imagine any team doing that. Sale at the time was a much more established pitcher than Crochet is currently, and he also wasn’t a year removed from a significant elbow injury, as is the case with Crochet. The O’s are in a situation in which they can justify being even more aggressive than this, but to include more name brand talent than this starts to make the trade look quite a bit riskier. Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Chayce McDermott are ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in the Orioles’ system — 45+ FV guys but not Top 100 Prospects. I do get the impression that at the end of the day, the White Sox don’t have to be completely bowled over to trade Crochet, while the Tigers may very well need to be for Tarik Skubal, the best lefty pitcher who might be available.
The Houston Astros acquire 3B/1B Isaac Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays for OF Jacob Melton, SS Alberto Hernandez, OF Luis Baez, and P Alimber Santa
Corner infielder Isaac Paredes is arguably the best bat likely to be available at the deadline, so it’s hard for the Astros not to have serious interest given the utter wreck that first base has been for them this year (.205/.276/.317). While one of the prime artisans of that triple-slash, José Abreu, is gone, Jon Singleton is not much of an improvement, and at 32, he’s hardly the future of the position. Paredes, who has three years left until he hits free agency, would fill that short-term need at first and also provide the Astros with an option to replace third baseman Alex Bregman if he doesn’t re-sign with the team.
While Houston has reasons to be interested in Paredes, do they have enough to offer? I think that’s the key question here, because the farm system is pretty poorly stacked at the moment. I don’t think there’s any way the Astros can pull off this trade without giving up their top prospect Jacob Melton, who is ranked no. 78 overall, or Jake Bloss, their top pitching prospect and no. 100 on our Top 100 list. Even if one of those two are included, the Astros would have to send along a few other guys who offer enough upside to make it a worthwhile deal for the Rays. I kinda see Alimber Santa as one of those hard throwers with poor command that the Rays suddenly make into elite relievers after a midseason call-up. I could also see the Rays asking for Shay Whitcomb, who fits in with their organization’s long-term embrace of unheralded Joey Wendle-type infielders who hit in the upper minors and get no attention around the league. ZiPS has actually been rather enamored with Whitcomb for a while. The Rays have bled a lot of outfield bats over the last few years and, in addition to Melton, Luis Baez would help them restock. On top of that, Tampa Bay likes upside, and while I’m a José Caballero fan, Alberto Hernandez certainly has upside. With Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve, Houston can spare middle infield prospects, even really good ones.
The Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Jack Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers for LHP Justin Wrobleski and SS Trey Sweeney
The Tigers are no doubt asking for the moon for Skubal, but they don’t have the same need to do so for Jack Flaherty, a free agent at the end of the season. Flaherty’s been terrific this year, but he’s also a rental, and teams don’t usually give up their best for players on expiring contracts these days. I kinda wanted to center this trade around one of the Dodgers’ many young catchers, probably Thayron Liranzo, or an infielder on the rise like Alex Freeland, but that just seemed a bit too rich for them to give up for two months of Flaherty’s services. The good news is the Dodgers have an extremely deep farm system, so if a trade like this were to be discussed, there are myriad ways to get Detroit interested, even if it’s not exactly these two mid-tier prospects. Justin Wrobleski is probably too much of an innings eater for the Dodgers, who prefer to juggle high-end pitching talents based on who’s healthy, and although Trey Sweeney has been passed by other players in the organization, the Tigers could still use him in their system.
I think it would be a mistake if the Dodgers didn’t add a pitcher before the deadline. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s goal to make it back before the playoffs is not an auspicious sign, and even with Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow returning from injuries, I think the team would be well-served to have another fairly hardy pitcher in the mix for the playoffs.
The Seattle Mariners acquire 1B Yandy Díaz and OF Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Rays for RHP Logan Evans, RHP Emerson Hancock, and RHP Michael Morales
This trade depends on the status of Yandy Díaz, who is currently on the restricted list for a personal issue, but I’m assuming that will be resolved fairly soon. If not, then I’d still be in favor of a scaled back trade in which the Mariners acquired Randy Arozarena. Rays fans might be underwhelmed by the lack of a huge name coming back in the deal, but I don’t think Díaz and Arozarena really have the same trade value they had a year ago, and we project both players to finish with just short of two WAR for the 2024 season. But I think they each hold decent value for the Mariners considering how bad their offense has been this season. The Mitch Haniger reunion hasn’t worked out, and first baseman Tyler Locklear is likely a worse hitter in the short term than Díaz. Additionally, both Díaz and Arozarena have some cost control remaining. The Rays like interesting pitching prospects the way that sculptors like marble, and the M’s are one of the few teams that can provide them without impacting to their long-term roster. Three of those interesting lesser pitching prospects are righties Logan Evans, Emerson Hancock, and Michael Morales. Paredes would probably be an even better pickup for the Mariners, who really need a bat, but I already gave Paredes to the Astros.
The St. Louis Cardinals acquire RHP Nathan Eovaldi from the Texas Rangers for RHP Sem Robberse and C Pedro Pagés
I’m still unsure what the Rangers plan to do next week, but should they decided that retooling isn’t a dirty word for them, Nathan Eovaldi is one of the logical players to trade. Technically, he has a vesting player option for 2025 at $20 million, but I’m not sure that’s really a factor here; Eovaldi’s on target to meet the 300 innings requirement should things go well this summer, and if they do, he’ll be in a position to do a lot better than a single year at $20 million. Like Flaherty, there are no moons to acquire for two months of Eovaldi, but I think the Rangers could do a lot worse than two mid-tier prospects who aren’t years away from the big leagues. Pedro Pagés doesn’t have an obvious place in St. Louis and would be a more effective long-term caddy for Jonah Heim than current Texas backup Andrew Knizner, and the Rangers have a farm system that is lighter on starting pitchers than position players. I like Sem Robberse, but the Cardinals are full of no. 3 and 4 starters, and a healthy mid-rotation arm may simply be more valuable to the Rangers than to the Cards.
The New York Mets acquire RHP Carlos Estévez and LHP Reid Detmers from the Los Angeles Angels for RHP Blade Tidwell, SS/OF Luisangel Acuña, and OF Ryan Clifford
Carlos Estévez is one of the best relievers available at the deadline – and a pure rental – and if the Mets are interested in pushing for a wild card, as I believe they are, shoring up a weak bullpen is a good place to improve. I’m also a big fan of Reid Detmers. He’s commonly talked about as a “reclamation project,” but I think there’s good evidence to say that this year in the majors he pitched better than his surface-level stats showed. No competent major league pitcher is “truly” a .333 BABIP pitcher. Before being demoted, Detmers was having his best season yet in terms of missing bats, and I think he fits in the middle of the Mets rotation both immediately and over the next few years. Maybe I’m underrating the Angels as an organization, but I don’t think they would need a marquee prospect to make this trade, so I’m not going to throw one in willy-nilly. Blade Tidwell has struggled a little with command at Triple-A, but he ought to stick as a starter, and ZiPS is a pretty big fan of him long term. Luisangel Acuña is a tantalizing athlete who hasn’t really hit since he was traded to the Mets organization, and Ryan Clifford boasts plus power and has performed well at Double-A this year, but he strikes out a lot and doesn’t offer much defensively.
The San Diego Padres acquire LHP Yusei Kikuchi and RHP Yimi García from the Toronto Blue Jays for IF Eguy Rosario, C Brandon Valenzuela, and OF Homer Bush Jr.
With Yu Darvish out for personal reasons and Joe Musgrove’s exact timetable for a return still up in the air, the Padres could use an extra starting pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi is no ace, but he’s been solid the last two years and has pitched better than his raw ERA this season. He’s also a free agent at the end of the season, which makes him more movable for the Blue Jays than either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, as I think 2025 is still very important to the Jays. The back of San Diego’s bullpen is also less than enthralling, and a Yimi García acquisition would give them more heft for the very wide open NL Wild Card race.
Naturally, neither Kikuchi nor García merit a top prospect in return, but they should at least get an interesting package. ZiPS actually likes Eguy Rosario quite a bit, projecting him for a 97 wRC+ in 2025 with +5 fielding runs at third, good enough to be a league-average player and help the Jays retool for next season. A healthy Manny Machado greatly reduces Rosario’s utility to the Padres. Danny Jansen is a free agent after the season and the Jays are short in prospects both behind the plate and in the outfield, and Brandon Valenzuela and Homer Bush Jr. are the types of 40ish prospects that frequently go in trades like this.
The New York Yankees acquire RHP Chad Green from the Toronto Blue Jays for IF Jared Serna
I’d be surprised if the Yankees weren’t after a late-inning arm, and they have a good history with Chad Green. I also think Green is unlikely to require a large price despite his solid ERA; his strikeout rate has fallen considerably and it’s backed largely by hitters making a lot more contact. Even before you consider Bichette’s free agency after next season, the Jays are in need of infield depth; I don’t think they see Addison Barger as a long-term middle infielder, but Jared Serna could fill that role.
Amusingly, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is having a strong season and would be useful for the Yankees at third base, but because the Jays need infield depth and might want to retool for 2025 rather than rebuild, they might choose to keep IKF, who is signed through next season.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Do a Brent Rooker to the Pirates trade please! Get my hopes up before they are let down!
Or at least can we have little a Mark Canha, as a treat
Rooker is 29 and having a career year. He can take a walk but he has a high K-rate. The Pirates would likely overpay for a player who might quickly suffer an age induceed reg4ession.
This one is, for me, a no.
Who cares about future regression. With Skenes the Pirates window is right now. Every day that goes by is a ticking time bomb for him to end up in Dodger blue. You pull a move like this with the thought that the pitching can win you every 3-2 game possible in the playoffs. Just need the bats to actually score 3 runs.
Dodger blue?
Blue hospital gown is in every pitcher’s future. That’s the ticking clock.
Sure. Call it that too. Doesn’t change my point.
I care. Skenes is not going anywhere until he reaches arbitration. Why waste players acquiring a mediocrity that won’t produce over the whole of Skene’s tenure? Even Nuttington is not that stupid.
The thing is, mediocrity is better than what Suwinski, Taylor, Hayes, Triolo, any combination of the catchers have brung to the table this year. There’s only 4 (eligible) guys with an OPS+ above 100… No where did I say trade Skenes for a mediocre guy. But to not add when the window is CLEARLY now is just stupid. Trading some minor league guys who aren’t going to contribute anyways isn’t a bad idea. I’m a lifelong buccos fan. They sell prospects to the fans just as good, if not better, than they sell tickets… Remember Alan Hanson? Chase D’Arnaud? Travis Swaggerty??
Hypothetically – trading Ji-Hwan Bae and Hunter Barco for Brent Rooker and going for a playoff push – wouldn’t hurt this team. Bae has been pushed out, we have enough pitching depth. At what point is that wasting a player??? At what point would you want to start trading prospects for ML talent? When Skenes is making $10M in arbitration and Keller is in his $18M year, or when Skenes, Jones, Gonzales, Cruz on rookie deals? Even Nuttington wouldn’t be stupid enough to wait…….
The window is not open right now. If it were open, the organization would not need to trade for mediocre playes. The Pirates ought to trade for players who are in AAA 9rvare rookies. The team should set its lineup for the near to short term. Trading for a player like Rooker does not fit that strategy.
The Pirates have too Few LH pitchers of note in the minors. It needs to keep Barco.
My preferred trade: Keller for one of these two: Mayo or Kjerstad. It’s a reverse Alou for Smith trade. The Pirates trade a veteran pitcher for a talented young player. Of all the griping we hear from Pirates’ fans, I’ve never heard a complaint about that one. Alou, of course, is in a lower teir of The Hall of the Very Good. The O’s would make the trade because it’s window is wide open and a trade or two of this kind could put the into the WS. The Pirates, on the other hand, need young hitters that stand a reasonable chance of becoming good hitters in the Majors.
If not the O’s, then another team in the same situation.
.
Not even comparable situations. Alou had all of 2 games under his belt when traded. Keller is an all star veteran pitcher with much he’s proven at this point. He’s a consistent member of the rotation. When you deal from DEPTH you typically don’t pick the KEY contributors as the depth. The depth that will be traded are Gonzales and Perez, NOT the opening day starter the past 2 season. The town would be in uproar, and even cherington isn’t that stupid. Trading for Rooker makes more sense, and more people would prefer to see that then selling out for a prospect who might not be any good anyways.
“The Guardians sit on their hands because the Dolans are terrible.”
Please give us some hope.
Jack Flaherty to the Guardians for Jose Tena, Parker Messick, and Juan Brito.
No complete standouts, but Tena is better than Sweeny and is also MLB-ready, Messick is farther from the big leagues but he’s looked awesome in the minors so far and has similar characteristics to Wrobleski with a higher ceiling. And Brito is another MLB ready player who can hit, walks about as much as he strikes out, and plays multiple positions. Higher cost than the Dodgers because it’s an inter-division trade, and those tend to cost more.
It’s a lot to give up for a rental, but the bridge to a healthier next season is valuable. Plus Angel Martinez and Jhonkensey Noel fill the spots the two position players were likely to fill were they promoted, with David Fry and Kyle Manzardo also looking for at-bats.
Alternatively, they could trade that package to the White Sox for Fedde, who will not be a rental at a lower but still valuable quality.
GM’s don’t do as many trades within their division. If it backfires, you get burned twice as bad.
Already pointed that out.
“GM’s don’t do as many trades within their division. If it backfires, you get burned twice as bad.”
And if you win, you win twice as much
So, it evens out
So, GM’s should have no problem trading within their division
The Guardians also aren’t particularly risk-averse in that regard. They’ve done it fairly recently with trades like Cesar Hernandez for Konnor Pilkington, Leonys Martin for Willi Castro, Ian Hamilton for Sandy Leon, Yonder Alonso for Alex Call, and a couple others. Typically more small-ticket deals, but they do them. It’s only the Royals and Guards who don’t trade with each other, and that’s not currently relevant.
On top of that, Flaherty is a rental, so the risk to the Tigers is lower. And the White Sox need viable prospects, particularly versatile position players. 6 of their top ten are pitchers, and 9 of their top 15. They get two of the latter and a decent pitching prospect for Fedde, it’s pretty tempting for them.
For the Guardians, they’re trying to win. So risks are going to come, but the targets aren’t high-risk ones. Flaherty has been great and fits their exact mold, and Fedde has a high floor and additional team control.
Eh Fedde’s floor is bad. He spent 6 years with a 5.41 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP.
His realistic floor compared to present performance and recent outcomes, then. Sure, he could turn back from the carriage of the White Sox rotation into a pumpkin at midnight, but it’s doubtful at this point.
Crochet is the stallion pulling the carriage in that metaphor, lol.
Who’s to say it’s not a flash in the pan season that happens multiple times every single year. If I’m a GM I’m very weary about placing my eggs into the Fedde basket. We’ve seen this before with pitchers coming from overseas after struggling their first stint here. Josh Lindbloom a prime example. A high WHIP in his first stints, sent to KBO, signed a multi year deal with Milwaukee then ended up back out of the league in like 20 games. Now, Fedde’s season has been better than any of Lindblom, but just a recent memory.
Depends on whose perspective you’re considering. If I’m a GM and I win, I personally get not much of anything, and if I lose I get fired.
Projected talent might be adequate (two 45+ and a 40) but it doesn’t hurt Cleveland. What’s the intradivision tax?
A utility, a 2B, and a 23 year old with 5 games at AA?
“no. 4/5 pitchability starter with a great changeup.” according no Mr. Longenhagen.
Very cleveland friendly.
And still, the way Cleveland works, they’re most likely going to end up with Paxson.
Don’t forget that the Red Sox will trade Romy Gonzalez for cash considerations. Can’t wait.
Rangers aren’t selling at just 3 games back with multiple major pieces set to return.
Agreed. A 3 game winning streak coinciding with a 3 game losing streak in Houston has put them in a really good position. They’re in a solid position to get red hot during the stretch run. I’m not worried about the M’s at all, their offense is atrocious.
Yeah, the many media personalities saying they will sell seem to be overlooking that the club’s entire plan was to coast the first half and get the horses under them for the last couple of months. That seems to be what is happening and as Seattle predictably fades into irrelevance the Rangers should surpass them any day now.
Texas deadline acquisition is DeGrom, Mahle, Jung and Carter.
Anyone would be a replacement over Kinzer but they trade Lorenzen or Gray before parting with Eovaldi for a Heim caddy.
That Mets trade proposal is asinine. They’re not giving up three of their Top 5 organizational prospects (two of which they just acquired for HOF pitchers) for a rental reliever and a SP with a 6+ ERA. Especially in a season where they’re happy to just be competing and barely gripping a WC spot in a crowded NL race. Ridiculous.
Taking your comment at face value: This is EXACTLY the kind of trade that the Mets would engage in.
Ok calm down. None of these players are in their top 5. Top 10 according to Fangraphs as of May. Opinions vary as you should know. Clifford is probably the best name here based on 2024 performance and he’s very flawed. Hitting great since his promotion to AA, but he’s flawed. Acuna isn’t hitting at all and I believe they would love to move him this deadline. The specific return here isn’t exciting but it’s reflective of the value of Detmers since he’s pre-Arb and the Mets have shown they can improve pitchers like him. I don’t know that I would do this particular deal but I don’t disagree with the framework
3 Top 10 prospects still feels like a lot, doesn’t it? Especially when you would be selling low on Acuna right now. Acuna and Clifford are both guys who have appeared on various top 100 lists as recently as this past offseason.
This feels like a trade that makes sense based on numerical present value/future value, but I don’t think I would want to do it as a Mets fan. I especially would not want to give up decent prospects for another starter right now- it’s hard for me to see Detmers slotting into the middle of the rotation right now, as Dan suggests.
“3 top 10 prospects” is a meaningless designation — from some systems that’s three strong prospects, from other systems it’s not. And IMO none of the three prospects in this proposal are particularly exciting.
I wouldn’t be paying for a rental reliever if I were in Stearns’ shoes either. And obviously the trade idea hinges on what you think of Detmers. But trading flawed prospects for a controllable starter is not a bad idea in the abstract, and where those guys are ranked in the Mets system or what they traded to acquire them isn’t here or there.
That’s my point, thank you. I would trade any of the 5-10 prospects in the Mets system. Maybe not this particular deal, but the general idea isn’t bad.
I know Dan likes Detmers but I don’t think trading prospects for a “reclamation project” which most believe him to be is a good idea if the goal is a wild card push.
Also since we are talking about people who only looking at surface level stats, trading a prospect for a reliever rental that just last year sported a 6.59 ERA in the second half of the season may not be a good idea.
They think so highly of his talent that they’re jerking him around in the minors for service time reasons. The Angels are incapable of turning good players into great ones, average ones into good ones. Do this kid a favor and put him on a team that has any idea how to improve players.
So, Brewers get Erick Fedde then?
Sounds good to me.
Erick Fedde for Tyler Black, Bradley Blalock, and Josh Winchrowski . Would be a huge steal for the Brewers by Fangraphs’ grades but Black and Wichrowski are much more highly rated by other outlets.
Who’s Josh Winchrowski?
Sounds like a made up name, doesn’t it? He was a Day 3 pick out of a small school who suddenly showed up touching 100 in 2024. Baseball America likes him a lot.
There’s a Brett Wichrowski BA ranked #14
Yeah, that was him. Brett Wichrowski. I mashed up a bunch of names. You can swap in someone else in the FV45-ish tier if you want instead, I just went with Wichrowski because I think he’s having a good year.
I think you mistook Josh Winckowski-a journeyman drafted in 15th round out of a Florida HS by Toronto and then flipped for Steven Matz and then Khalil Lee (and is actually having a decent season in the Red Sox bullpen) with Jacob misiorowski-who was a second round pick out of a juco and is a top100 prospect for the brewers
Jesus H, no.
The words “Homer Bush Jr.” make me feel very old indeed. I could have sworn it was only a decade or so ago that his dad was an overhyped Yankees prospect.
His frirends can call him HoJu
This deserves infinite upvotes
What’s the matter with Ho BJ.?In the vein of Jackie Bradley. Now there’s a nickname I can stand for
I’ll fully admit that I’m biased here as a Met fan, but that trade seems…….. like a massive overpay?
I like Detmers quite a bit as a reclamation project, but I’m valuing him as such. This values him at or above market value for an established mid rotation piece. Estevez is a rental reliever that’s had 30 innings this year far and above what he’s ever done before, so I’m not valuing him at all.
If I’m trading my 6th, 7th, and 10th prospects in one deal, I better be getting a hell of a lot more than that
Yeah I’m not doing that either if I’m the Mets. You can expect them to go hard after relievers so Estevez is in play but that’s more like Luisangel Acuna and Mike Vasil territory.
I don’t see why they’d punt 2024 just because they didn’t go all out in the offseason. They could change their minds. If not for Detmers then some other controlled starter. Estévez seems more valuable to the Orioles or Yankees
Really? Seems low to me. A rental closer, albeit one in his first stint as a closer, probably goes for an FV45. Then, you’re getting 3.5 years of a 2.5 win starter for an FV45 and an FV40.
Seems pretty good, but I don’t see the point of including Detmers for either team. The Mets would probably aim higher than a 2.5 win starter since Steve Cohen is their owner. I think a team like the Rays would love to get their hands on Detmer but why would the Angels take only an FV45 and an FV40? Maybe they like Zips like the Mets’ prospects more than Longenhagen does.
But Detmers is not a 2.5 win starter, he’s a guy you think you can fix and turn into a 2.5 win starter. There’s a meaningful difference between the two
There’s a quote somewhere to the effect of “if both sides are unhappy then it’s probably fair.”
I wouldn’t want to be the Mets’ GM right now, that’s all I can say. I was firmly set on trading Alonso up until basically a week ago. I still don’t think it’s a bad idea.
The batted ball profile for Paredes is so wacky that only teams with extreme short porches in left field (Tampa, Houston) can maximize his value. The deal with the Astros makes sense; noting him as a possibility for Seattle does not.
Statcast has him at 14 HRs if he played all his games in Safeco, two less than his current total. That’s not a big gap. In general, any team that doesn’t have a high wall or a deep cutout in left field is a fit for him, even if he might experience a slight downgrade in power. Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, San Fran, Baltimore, Wrigley, Marlins Park, and Kauffman Stadium in KC are the only parks where he’d be at a noticeable disadvantage.
Paredes pulls almost all of his aerial contact. To a crazy degree. So a lot of those homers would end up as doubles off the wall or over the heads of outfielders anyway. He doesn’t tend to hit lazy fly balls that often.
ESPECIALLY Baltimore. He has 67 HR since the start of 2022. Per Statcast, he’d have 24 if he played all his games in Baltimore’s stadium.
The Gleyber Torres Memorial Cutout is insane for how much it changed Camden Yards’ park effects. That place used to be a bandbox!
It ruined one of the best stadiums in baseball too. It’s an eyesore now.
As a Dodger fan, I accept this proposal.
Quick, make me the Tigers’ GM
Will Crochet even be available come playoffs this season? Seems like a huge risk to be the big get for the Orioles.
Yes and the White Sox may not get as much for him now than they could in the offseason for that reason
They obviously will get more than they would have in the off-season, as he is now an established starter and in the off-season he was a reliever coming off TJ w no track record of starting in pro ball. Next offseason, he’ll have less team control and there’s less leverage aka teams less likely to overpay. Unless he ups his game even further, this is likely his peak value (factoring in injury risk and mileage on his arm)
He means in the 2024-2025 offseason, where he (hopefully?) will have 150 innings under his belt without an injury and will go into the next season without major innings restrictions.
Yes I meant that
You seriously think he’ll have more value this off-season than he does rn at the deadline?
I think that it won’t go down at all if he stays healthy.
Yeah agreed
If I’m giving up Mayo, Basallo, or Holliday then I’d prefer to go bigger and get Skubal. Personally, I’d rather keep them and go for Eovaldi or Fedde.
Eovaldi and Fedde… please…
I like Detmers and think he can be fixed and I think Estevez could be a big asset for the pen teaming with Diaz, Nunez and Butto making for a strong late game bullpen but I’m not making that trade.
Valuing Arozarena and Díaz as 2 WAR players because they’ll finish there this year isn’t valid. They project closer to 3 WAR and I don’t see why the Rays shouldn’t value them as such in a trade. Of course Díaz might be untradeable on the restricted list.
Brent Rooker seems like a Seattle target if they’re looking for guys who can hit in their home park.
Dont see Rays trading them for that return. Especially since team is still in a winning window. I agree with your WAR reasoning.
I think that the proposed deal for Crochet favors the White Sox, mostly because I think Mayo has a lot of star potential. But it’s fair enough that I think a lot of teams would do it in the Orioles’ position. I’m still on the “trade Jackson Holliday for Tarik Skubal” bandwagon but it sounds like that isn’t happening.
I don’t really see how the Astros are going to pull off a deal for Paredes. The Rays are still planning to compete the next three years, and I don’t think Melton, Bloss, and Rodriguez are that attractive as prospects. They’d have to give up a ton of volume–like, this deal but add in Bloss and Brice Mathews.
I’d wait on trading Paredes in the scenario described in the article but a package including both Melton and Bloss might be enough with other real pieces. Paredes also fits on Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers
I think the proposed deal for Flaherty is going to be easily outbid–I think the Braves and Padres would top that deal without thinking twice if they don’t land Crochet, and the Red Sox might too.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers try and shop Cartaya in addition to those names, although if I’m the Tigers I’m still asking for Liranzo. In general, when looking to see who the Dodgers are going to trade, look to see who is already on the 40-man but not contributing to the big league roster, or who will need to be added this offseason. Cartaya, Wrobleski, and Sweeney would be enough to be competitive with the Braves / Padres / Red Sox, potentially outbid them too.
Agreed-Detroit can always sit on their hands and offer Flaherty the QO, so expect the return to be much stronger
I agree on Flaherty. There aren’t many starters available that contenders would be comfortable starting a playoff game, and Flaherty is probably the best of them at least for this postseason considering he has no innings limitations like Crochet does. Detroit should be asking for at least a 50FV, a 45FV, and a lotto ticket.
They’re probably not going to get that, not unless you think guys like Cartaya, Roderick Arias, Jacob Melton, Will Warren, Dylan Lesko, Kyle Hurt, and Victor Scott are 50s.But all those guys should be on the table, alongside guys in the 45/45+ range (which is probably where I would put those guys too).
The Yankees love Will Warren. I don’t think they trade him unless it’s for Crochet or maybe Paredes. I know he’s stuggled in AAA, but it’s the ABS. I think he’s a mid rotation starter. He’s Michael King but with more grounders. Well, maybe not *this* Michael King who is absolutely dominant, but that type of pitcher. Lots of pitchers struggle in AAA because of it. And some teams skip their pitchers right over AAA because of it.
Yeah, that’s a little high, but I’m not sure why Szymborski thinks good rental starters can’t return FV50’s when they do every year. Just last year: Giolito and Montgomery.
Thus, Flaherty, Kikuchi, and maybe Eovaldi all return 50’s and Fedde, a 50 and 45, since Fedde is under control next year and leads all these guys in FWAR currently.
Not remotely. Kikuchi looks better under the hood, but that’s been the case for his whole MLB career. Wouldn’t be surprised if some teams were out on him performing at that level already.
Fedde also isn’t going to play up in the playoffs the way the others are expected to. fWAR is a cumulative stat and he’s pitched the most out of any of those guys. Three starts more than Flaherty or Eovaldi, but Flaherty is better on a rate basis. Fedde looks more like Eovaldi with an extra year of team control, but without the eye-popping raw stuff.
Not to say he’s not valuable, but he’s a tier below Flaherty at minimum in terms of quality.
That deal for the Mariners would be a very favorable one for them if it was just Arozarena. Getting both Yandy Diaz and Arozarena feels a bit like highway robbery. Maybe they should throw in Harry Ford and get Lowe as well? That would be a heck of a blockbuster.
Yeah people aren’t trading arozarena and Diaz, even at their value nadir, for Emerson Hancock. That trade read like the video game ‘let me trade my roster flotsam for actual value’ move that doesn’t happen irl
Absolutely think Rays try and get their C of the future this deadline, Rushing and Ford both make sense.
If Dipoto can get anything like that deal on Diaz/Arozarena I would sure hope he’d take it – and I would hope he’d take your revised/expanded version, too. His everyday lineup needs a serious infusion of talent.
Here’s the “expanded proposal” Mitchell Moore referenced.
Mariners get:
-Arozarena
-Lowe
-Diaz
Rays get:
-Harry Ford
-Logan Evans
-Tyler Locklear
-Michael Morales
-Emerson Hancock
-Dominic Canzone
Maybe take out Locklear and Diaz if you think Diaz is worth a lot and/or you don’t like Locklear (I have seen Locklear as high as an FV50 and as low as an FV40). But Locklear can step in immediately as a first baseman, Canzone platoons in left, and also clears room for Mead to play at 1B or DH or LF.
I’d think the Rays could get more trading those 3 guys separately to different teams. At some point a single team runs out of prospects the trading partner would want.
Right now the Mariners are at about a 52% win percentage. To get all the up to the worship at the altar of 54%, they probably don’t need two position players like Dan suggested here. They should do more prospect hugging and only have one marginal upgrade to their lineup.
Agreed I dont think Mariners should mortgage their future. Very talented farm and should be back in it next year.
90s Braves staff comparison so they should be good for next 5 years.
I don’t the ’90s Braves starting pitching compares with anything. For several years, they had 3 first ballot Hall of Famers in their primes and a number of other solid to good contributors!
no erick fedde trade? 🙁
I know we all love prospects here. But the White Sox were worse off for the Sale trade, and probably worse off for the Cease trade. Based on recent history, the White Sox are going to value prospects less than you think and they’re going to ask for the moon. That might just result in not trading Crochet.
In hindsight yes but they had to try to convert present value into future value. We can criticize the actual returns but the idea of selling shouldn’t dissuade them from doing it again.
Of course. They are open for business, and they should be. But needless to say, they need to turn this thing around.
They have a cheap, good pitcher. If other teams won’t deal due to questions about durability, there’s no need to stretch just to do a deal. In any negotiation you need to be willing to walk to get good returns right? They can sit on Crochet, they have two years.
I say, ask for the moon. If they don’t get it, they shut him down at 160 innings and deal him in the off-season.
I agree with that. If teams aren’t going to value the rest of 2024 Crochet highly then next offseason is the time to do a trade. He’d have hopefully proven he can pitch 120 innings and last a whole year by then.
I don’t know if they were worse off as much as it just ultimately didn’t matter. They lost 95, 100, and 89 games in the 3 years after the Sale trade, so hanging onto him wasn’t going to fix anything either
They traded the best pitcher in franchise history for failed prospects, and they followed it up by losing a lot? Worse off is worse off. That wasn’t the only reason but it’s not irrelevant.
Calling Kopech and Moncada “failed prospects” is a bit of hyperbole. It’s not like they didn’t have good years. Moncada has had two All-Star caliber seasons and two average ones (including the 2020 pandemic season, where he would have finished with like 2.5 WAR over a full season barring any uptick in performance). And Kopech had two solid seasons by bWAR out of four total.
Yes, you’re right. I’m overstating it. But the franchise is in the same position again here. Trading for the future put them in their present position. All I’m saying is they might be inclined to ask for more.
They can be inclined to, but that doesn’t mean they’ll get it. And I don’t expect them to. Fedde’s value is only going to decrease. Robert is a mystery box who might rebound or might absolutely crash and he’s that way to begin with. Teams already know he’s going to be injured more often than not and there are reasons his trade value has decreased each season. His injury history and general inconsistency has him on par with pitchers for risk level.
Crochet, they could be served well by waiting. That part I agree with. But not the other two. And unless they strike gold, they aren’t going to get a ton back. Asking for too much will bite them.
I agree about Fedde. I’m only talking about Crochet.
Ahh, sorry, took that to mean as an overall strategy.
It’s definitely something to think about as far as leveling expectations when it comes to prospects. Getting guys who can contribute for multiple years is often a win.
and given the opportunity to do so again, they would. It’s not like Sale was the missing piece on a potential White Sox playoff team in those years
Fangraphs currently lists 6 of the White Sox top 10 prospects as pitchers and that doesn’t include Hagen Smith so why are you “sure the Sox would prefer a comparable pitching prospect to Mayo than Mayo”?
Probably just based on their recent trade history, but that’s just speculation.
IMO they really don’t need to worry about blocking pitchers. Schultz, Smith, Thorpe, Iriarte, Cannon, and Eder are all somewhere between good prospects and interesting prospects but the chances that all of them stay healthy and perform well enough to be starters is probably zero. They’ll be happy if three of those guys are long-term fits in their rotation.
I read somewhere that their overall strategy is to stockpile and develop pitchers with the aim of trading for (and maybe even signing) bats. On the other hand, their offense is sub-zero right now and they probably need to think about addressing that need.
Less about blocking pitchers and more about needing to stock up on future bats. But they also have rather a lot of lesser-ballyhooed SP prospects who have real if not huge shots to be actual SPs. Nastrini, Bush, Burke, and G. Taylor all have some prospect pedigree and thus varying shots to be #3/4s or so, and they’ve got Martin, M. Adams, Gowens, and Schweitzer as older on-paper performer #4/5 to 5/6 types.
So, while more arms won’t hurt, I think they are probably more interested in bats, or at least high-ceilinged pitchers.
Nastrini, Eder, Martin, Bush, and Burke are in AAA and look like they could all be interesting backend guys.
Iriarte, Schultz, and Adams in AA have decent to amazing potential.
Grant Taylor looks fantastic in an extremely small sample size in A ball.
That doesn’t count the fact that they just Hagen Smith in the first round who should be a fast mover and Blake Larson in Comp B who’s a longer term developmental guy to get that rolling wave of prospects hitting the bigs.
It also doesn’t count guys like Cannon, Schweitzer, Pallette, McDougal, and Oppor who are in varying stages of development in an organization that has been pretty decent at developing pitchers.
Meanwhile, the only bats in the minors that you can see helping the major league team in the next few years are Montgomery (who is currently struggling a bit in AAA), Ramos (who is also struggling), Jacob Gonzalez (who is scuffling in AA), Quero, and Zavala.
IMHO the Orioles should have to pay the White Sox double the value of anything they hope to receive. Solely because their tanking was so successful that the league was forced to implement this draft lottery system which is currently F***ing the White Sox in the A**.
Lol this is hilarious. You aren’t wrong. The Sox would have the #1 pick next year if it weren’t for the new anti-tanking rules.
[A’s fans sadly nodding their head in complete agreement]
If the current rules had been in effect then, the only changes would be not having Kjerstad and Cowser.
Uh, Rutschman was drafted 1.1. Had the lottery been in effect back then, there’s an 83.5% chance he’s not on the O’s.
I thought the White Sox pick was lower because they so foolishly ballooned their payroll? Anybody with baseball sense could see the White Sox were a dumpster fire ready to combust coming into 2023.
Which raises the question though: what the hell kind of CBA punishes a team for having a high payroll and sucking?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/
Dumpster fire ready to combust, or projected 3rd place in the division with a modest 20% chance of making the playoffs?
No, what really happened was the team was a *lot* worse than anyone expected, which led to a huge sell off at the deadline and an even further slide into the oblivion they’re now in.
With tremendous respect to Dan and his creation, projection systems struggle to see cliffs on the horizon. At league-wide levels these balance out, but going more granular to team and player-level the misses get wider and wider. ZIPs doesn’t know the White Sox had culture and depth problems due to a bloated roster that left inflexibility to do more than band-aid over when what feels like poor injury or performance luck collectively turns against a team. I called it. I’m sure others did, as well.
We can debate what people should have or should not have known.
But you’re not going to suggest the White Sox actually deserve to lose a good draft pick because of this are you?
The Yankees trading for Chad Green who is getting paid like a set up man (this year and next) would be terrible. Also Green is a middle reliever at best now. His ERA is a mirage. I wouldn’t take him for free, tbh. I’d rather roll with what the Yankees already have.
If I’m Dana Brown and that’s all it takes to land Paredes I’d be over the moon
I was really expecting that first link to pull up some Blaseball event.
It’s not confusing. They suck at dev. They know they suck at dev. They want players who require minimal dev because the alternative (get better at dev) is too difficult for them.
Dan…. you either hate the Rays, or think the FO is staffed by idiots.
I thought this was a sellers market? The Astros, Dodgers, Mets and Cardinals trades are all underpays. Tidwell is a solid prospect, but Acuna and Clifford look like bench players, if that. Sweeney at this point is an org player. The Astros are getting the best player here (depending on what you think of Crochet) and they’re not giving up anything they’d miss. Granted their farm isn’t very good.
MLB teams know what IKF is, and his xwOBA is actually lower than last year, when he didn’t hit a lick. You trade for him and he’ll likely turn back into a pumpkin.
With the Rays front office’s patient approach, I don’t see a substantial selloff occurring until the offseason when they shuffle salary/retool
I understand the sentiment that Pedro Pages might not fit on the Cardinals, but Ivan Herrera is in the minor leagues simply because Pages has vastly outplayed him in the area the Cardinals value (defense taking priority at up-the-middle positions). I don’t think the Cardinals would deal Pages unless they were confident in Ivan Herrera’s abysmal CS rates improving — or if they were very confident in one of the catchers just past Herrera (Jimmy Crooks? Leonardo Bernal?)
I agree. The general idea for the Cardinals – trading a AAA pitcher and one of their catchers for a starter – sounds like a plan. Thing is, Pages is the perfect backup for Contreras and Herrera has more value.
Herrera is a very good hitter. His arm is suspect, but everything else is fine. I think they’d be happy with him as the 2/3rd starter if Contreras wasn’t signed for another few years. (The timing for Crooks or Bernal becoming the next starter works better anyway.)
On top of that, Texas isn’t selling. I’d love for the Cardinals to get Eovaldi or St. Louis native Scherzer, but it’s not going to happen this season.
A Pirates-Oriole’s trade: Mitch Keller for one of Mayo or Kjerstad.
The reasons this trade makes sense:
Keller has a contract that provides the O’s with cost certainty for a few years.
Keller is a quality #3 starter. He eats innings. He’ll give a team like the O’s the l3ad every start in the 6th or 7th inning.
The Pirates need hitting, especially young hitters who will hit during the Skenes/Jones era.
I doubt Cherrington’s will to make a trade like this. Managerial types talk about emulating the Rayss.Well, here is an opportunity to do just that.
Makes zero sense.
To you. What are your reasons for making this claim?
The Pirates have an open window, they aren’t trading the SP with the most *consistent* success, on a fairly cheap deal, for one player who isn’t proven at the MLB level. I’d bet you any amount in the world that the Pirates will not trade Keller.
The window isn’t open. If itvwere open, then the Pirates would not need to make two or more trades like this one. Why not trade from the organization’s depth to fill a strong need?
What are you talking about? EVERY contending team has holes to fill. Dodgers SP, Yankees need bats, orioles need pitching you’re so desperately trying to give them…. Pirates are no different.
And yes, you trade from the DEPTH. Keller isn’t DEPTH. He’s the rotation #2 with Jones rehabbing… you trade Perez, or Gonzales, or falter… not Keller….
I want to see the Cubs get Detmers. It might be enough for them to trade Steele and get a large package.
I think that Mets trade is crazy lol
I think the returns for the two Rays trades are not strong enough, though agree that those players could be on the move. I understand the desire from the acquiring teams, but others with interest should top those offers. TB seems most likely to trade one of Paredes and Yandy and definitely Zach Eflin.
I think Zach Eflin to Baltimore makes a lot of sense. Might have to throw in some cash to get the prospect they want, but Orioles could use a guy who can go 6-7 innings with no platoon issues. The park should be quite favorable for a guy who induces a lot of weak contact in the air. Owed about $21M for 1+ season there are no overly expensive or longterm obligations, while getting a head start on replacing Corbin Burnes next year. Cade Povich or Colton Cowser might be enough straight up depending on the cash offset, but maybe they work their way into the higher tier of Baltimore’s prospect kingdom by attaching a good RP like Jason Adam or Pete Fairbanks.
Paredes with the Crawford Boxes!
Begging industry pundits to stop trying to make Chad Green to the Yankees happen. He’s not that good and doesn’t serve their specific needs in that he’s expensive and isn’t striking people out.
Beginning of the year I got about 26 downvotes when I said the Pirates are more talented than Cubs or Reds….
Gratz on Arozarena. He resurrected his season enough to be moved
So, the Arozarena trade did happen. Diaz wasn’t included, but the prospect haul wasn’t nearly as good, I don’t think. I wonder if that’ll be a trend?