2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the post-trade deadline edition of my weekly chat. While I wait for the queue to fill up, a bit of housekeeping:

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Here’s Craig Edwards on trade deadline winners and losers: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-deadline-winners-losers-and-a-fe…

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Here’s Eric Longenhagen on the prospects traded: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-20…

2:04

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my contribution to our coverage: A’s Add to Rotation While Rangers Get Comparatively Minor Return https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-add-to-rotation-while-rangers-get-compa… Phillies Upgrade Battered Bullpen with Phelps https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phillies-upgrade-battered-bullpen-with-phe… Mets Add Three Players at Deadline, Though 2020 Impact Could Be Minimal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-add-three-players-at-deadline-though-…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show…

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Wracked by injuries and currently running fourth in the NL East at 15-20 — but even so just two games out of the eighth playoff spot — the Mets added a trio of players via separate deadline deals with the Rangers and Orioles on Monday. While catcher Robinson Chirinos and infielder Todd Frazier are the more familiar names and could have relevance beyond this season, it’s reliever Miguel Castro who will probably have the most staying power. Each addition addresses an area of need, though their 2020 impact might be minimal, and the hard-throwing righty did cost them a prospect of note as well as either a player to be named later or cash.

On a team that lost Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery and Marcus Stroman to an opt-out, then sent Michael Wacha and now Steven Matz to the Injured List with shoulder woes, the Mets have raided their bullpen to draft Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo into the rotation alongside Jacob deGrom, Rick Porcello, and rookie David Peterson. Particularly with Dellin Betances joining the IL due to right lat tightness, the need for competent relief work became particularly acute, and the addition of Castro, a 25-year-old righty with a live arm, helps to remedy that. Castro’s two-seam fastball averages 97.7 mph and goes as high as 99; as Ben Clemens recently observed, when he’s facing lefties, he tends to use his changeup as a secondary pitch, while against righties, he goes to his slider as an alternative. The fastball is even more hittable than most, but the secondary pitches are very good.

While Castro, who debuted with the Blue Jays in 2015 but still has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, got rather mediocre results in 2019 (4.66 ERA, 4.73 FIP in 73.1 innings), this year, he’s pitched markedly better (4.02 ERA, 3.71 FIP in 15.2 innings). His strikeout rate has spiked from 22.3% to 34.3%, while his walk rate has fallen from 12.8% to 7.1%; as a result, his K-BB% has nearly tripled, from 9.4% to 27.2%. His home run rate has climbed from 1.23 per nine to 1.72, but at the same time, his batted ball profile has taken on a different shape — harder contact but more grounders, and a ridiculous HR/FB rate:

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The Phillies’ bullpen has been lit for an astronomical 7.01 ERA thus far, and over the past two weeks, general manager Matt Klentak has been busy trying to bolster it. On Monday, as the trade deadline approached, the team made another move, acquiring righty David Phelps from the Brewers in exchange for a trio of players to be named later. The move reunites Phelps with manager Joe Girardi, under whom he pitched for the Yankees from 2012-14 while earning the exceptionally creative nickname “Phelpsie.”

The 33-year-old Phelps, who signed a $1.5 million one-year deal in January, put up a 2.77 ERA and 2.75 FIP in 13 innings while posting eye-opening strikeout and walk rates (41.7% and 4.2%, respectively). Per Pitch Info, Phelps’ four-seam fastball has ticked upwards in velocity, and he’s been emboldened to work upstairs with it.

After averaging 92.8 mph with his four-seamer last year, which he split between the Blue Jays and Cubs while posting a 3.41 ERA and 4.58 FIP in 34.1 innings, Phelps is averaging 94.6 mph this year. He’s actually throwing it less, and using his sinker and cutter more frequently, with the former picking up steam as well:

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Just over a year ago, Mike Minor was the subject of much debate as far as whether the Rangers — a middling team as the deadline approached — should trade the lefty at or near the peak of his value given that he was pitching well and signed through 2020. Ultimately, the club chose not to move him, finished below .500, and saw his stock drop considerably with a rough start to the abbreviated 2020 season. On Monday, the Rangers did their best to salvage some value by dealing him within the AL West, sending him to the division-leading A’s along with cash considerations for a pair of players to be named later and international slot money.

While the players headed to Texas can’t officially be named since they weren’t part of the A’s 60-man pool, a source told The Athletic’s Levi Weaver that they’re a pair of 2019 draft picks: third-rounder Marcus Smith, a center fielder who was 27th among A’s prospects on THE BOARD, and 11th-rounder Dustin Harris, a third baseman who did not crack the list of 39. More on them below.

Per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson, the Rangers are also sending Oakland half of Minor’s remaining salary (about $1.4 million remaining, prorated from his $9.5 million full-season salary) but are getting back $133,000 worth of international slot money. Interestingly enough, though interest in Lynn was said to be very high, so was their asking price, to the point that they again kept him

As for Minor, the 32-year-old southpaw entered 2020 riding a streak of three strong seasons since returning from a two-year absence from the majors (2015-16) caused by May 2015 surgery to repair a small tear in his labrum. He threw 77.2 innings out of the bullpen for the Royals in 2017, good for 2.2 WAR, then signed a three-year, $28 million deal with the Rangers. Read the rest of this entry »

For the full introduction to the Replacement-Level Killers series, follow the link above, but to give you the CliffsNotes version: yes, things are different this year, and not just because the lone trade deadline is later today, August 31. We’ve got a little over a month’s worth of performances to analyze (sometimes less, due to COVID-19 outbreaks), about four weeks still to play, and thanks to the expanded playoff field, all but seven teams — the Pirates, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, Royals, Rangers, and Orioles — are within two games of a playoff spot.

While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), I’ll incorporate our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation, considering any team with a total of 0.3 WAR or less — I lowered the threshold by a point, starting with the third base/center field installment, to keep the final lists from getting too overgrown — to be in the replacement-level realm (that’s 0.8 WAR over the course of 162 games, decidedly subpar). I don’t expect every team I identify to upgrade before the trade deadline, given other context (returns from injury, contradictory defensive metrics, and bigger holes elsewhere on the roster), and I’m not concerned with the particulars of which players they might pursue or trade away.

Note that all individual stats in this article are through August 29, but the won-loss records and Playoff Odds include games of August 30.

This time, I’m covering both left and right fielders, with a very brief nod in the general direction of designated hitters as well. Thankfully, my strategy of waiting for the left field herd to thin proved to be the right call, as that list shrank from nine to six (and right field from six to five) after some positive regression over the past few days. Read the rest of this entry »

For the full introduction to the Replacement-Level Killers series, follow the link above, but to give you the CliffsNotes version: yes, things are different this year, and not just because the lone trade deadline falls on August 31. We’ve got a little over a month’s worth of performances to analyze (sometimes less, due to COVID-19 outbreaks), about a month still to play, and thanks to the expanded playoff field, all but six teams — the Pirates, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, Royals, and Rangers — are within two games of a playoff spot.

While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), I’ll incorporate our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation, considering any team with a total of 0.3 WAR or less — I lowered the threshold by a point, starting with this installment, to keep these final lists from getting too overgrown — to be in the replacement-level realm (that’s 0.8 WAR over the course of 162 games, decidedly subpar). I don’t expect every team I identify to upgrade before the August 31 trade deadline, I’m not concerned with the particulars of which players they might pursue or trade away, and I may give a few teams in each batch a lightning round-type treatment, as I see their problems as less pressing given other context, such as returns from injury, contradictory defensive metrics, and bigger holes elsewhere on the roster.

Note that all individual stats in this article are through August 26, but the won-loss records and Playoff Odds include games of August 27.

This time, I’m covering third basemen and center fields, mainly so I could give a rather daunting left field herd — nine teams at 0.4 total WAR or less, and eight at 0.3 or less, when I ran the numbers on Thursday — another couple days to thin out, either by more representative performances or teams slipping below that odds threshold. Read the rest of this entry »

For the full introduction to the Replacement-Level Killers series, follow the link above, but to give you the CliffsNotes version: yes, things are different this year, and not just because the lone trade deadline falls on August 31. We’ve got just a month’s worth of performances to analyze (sometimes less, due to COVID-19 outbreaks), about a month still to play, and thanks to the expanded playoff field, all but six teams — the Pirates, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, Royals, and Rangers — are within two games of a playoff spot.

While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), I’ll incorporate our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation, considering any team with a total of 0.4 WAR or less to be in the replacement-level realm (that’s 1.1 WAR over the course of 162 games, decidedly subpar). I don’t expect every team I identify to upgrade before the August 31 trade deadline, I’m not concerned with the particulars of which players they might pursue or trade away, and I may give a few teams in each batch a lightning round-type treatment, as I see their problems as less pressing given other context, such as returns from injury, contradictory defensive metrics, and bigger holes elsewhere on the roster.

Note that all individual stats in this article are through August 25, but the won-loss records and Playoff Odds include games of August 26.

Today, I’ll address second basemen and shortstops. Read the rest of this entry »

For the full introduction to the Replacement-Level Killers series, follow the link above, but to give you the CliffsNotes version: yes, things are different this year, and not just because the lone trade deadline falls on August 31. We’ve got just a month’s worth of performances to analyze (sometimes less, due to COVID-19 outbreaks), about a month still to play, and thanks to the expanded playoff field, all but six teams — the Pirates, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, Royals, and Rangers — are within two and a half games of a playoff spot.

While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), I’ll incorporate our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation, considering any team with a total of 0.4 WAR or less to be in the replacement-level realm (that’s 1.1 WAR over the course of 162 games, decidedly subpar). I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 31 trade deadline, I’m not concerned with the particulars of which players they might pursue or trade away, and I may give a few teams in each batch a lightning round-type treatment, as I see their problems as less pressing given other context, such as returns from injury, contradictory defensive metrics, and bigger holes elsewhere on the roster. Got it? Good.

Note that all individual stats in this article are through August 24, but the won-loss records and Playoff Odds include games of August 25.

Have we discussed the possibility of adding a second designated hitter to the lineup? Some of these offensive performances truly offend the sensibilities, just as particularly inept pitchers hitting may do. By Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense, these guys should be the second coming of Johnny Bench or at least Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate, and yet many of them are in the red defensively — even the team with the catcher who himself is widely acknowledged as Pudge’s successor when it comes to being the game’s best defender. Also, what the hell happened to the catchers in the NL West? Somebody should be dialing Russell Martin’s number. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this year, the Hall of Fame postponed its annual Induction Weekend festivities, a perfectly understandable and defensible decision in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the dangers of bringing together tens of thousands of fans from all around the country. On Monday, the institution dropped a more puzzling bit of news: it has postponed the upcoming Golden Days and Early Baseball Era Committee meetings that would have taken place in December. Both panels will now vote on their slates of candidates in 2021 for inclusion in the Hall’s Class of 2022.

Under normal circumstances, the two 16-member committees would have convened in person at this year’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, with the Early Baseball committee considering candidates whose greatest contribution to baseball came before 1950, and the Golden Days committee considering those whose greatest contribution occurred during the 1950-69 window. The committees were created as a result of the 2016 reorganization of the Era Committee process, which covers managers, executive, umpires, and long-retired players. Prior to the reorganization, three Era Committees rotated on a triennial basis, but the updated version de-emphasized the more bygone — and therefore more picked-over, as far as deserving candidates are concerned — periods in favor of the more recent ones, namely the Modern Baseball (1970-87) and Today’s Game (1988 onward) Era Committees. It was a welcome change, for the most part.

This would have been the Early Days committee’s only meeting during the 10-year cycle the Hall laid out in 2016, and the first of two meetings for the Golden Days group, with the next one coming in 2026. While that’s no big deal on the former front, given that all of its plausible candidates — such as pioneer Doc Adams, shortstop Bill Dahlen, and the incomparable Buck O’Neil — are now deceased, some for over a century, every year matters when it comes to any effort to honor members of the latter group while they’re still alive. The actual slates of candidates for either committee had not yet been announced, but from among the top vote recipients in the 2015 Golden Era Committee balloting, which resulted in a shutout, Dick Allen (who fell one vote short, receiving 11 of 16 votes) is now 78 years old, Tony Oliva (also one vote short) is 82, Jim Kaat (two votes short) is 81, and Maury Wills (three votes short) is 87. Minnie Miñoso, who in falling four votes short was the other candidate who escaped the “three or fewer votes” designation, died less than three months after the balloting and was somewhere between the ages of 89 and 92, depending upon the source. Time is decidedly not on these men’s sides. Read the rest of this entry »

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. And yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets, and have presented it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

Things are different this year, as you may have noticed. With six days to go before the August 31 deadline, just a month’s worth of performance to analyze — if, that is, a team has avoided a COVID-19 outbreak that has blown a hole in its schedule — and 23 teams within two games of spot in the expanded playoff field through Monday, putting together this year’s set of Replacement-Level Killers is a challenge like no other. The sample sizes are tiny, especially when players are sharing a position; month-long slumps are hardly unique. Even without being a complete devotee to exactitude, normally I’m able to curate a tidy list at each position by focusing on the subset of contenders (teams with .500 records or at least a 10% chance of reaching the playoffs) who have gotten less than 1.0 WAR at that spot through roughly two-thirds of the season. Scale that down to 30 games, and the threshold becomes 0.3 WAR or less, in which case a single good day by a player at the position in question might boost him from Killer to mid-pack producer.

Thus, I’m doing things a bit differently this time around. While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (apologies in advance to fans of the Royals, Angels, Tigers, Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners, and Pirates), I’ll incorporate our Depth Charts rest-of-season WARs into the equation, considering any team that comes out with a total of 0.4 WAR or less to be in the replacement-level realm (that’s 1.1 WAR over the course of 162 games, decidedly subpar), though I may give a few teams in each batch a lightning round-type treatment, as I see their problems as less pressing given other contexts (returns from injury, contradictory defensive metrics, bigger holes elsewhere on the roster etc.) and I’ve pledged to keep these from becoming 3,000-word tomes. Read the rest of this entry »