Ranking the Prospects Traded During the 2020 Deadline
The closing bell rang on the trade deadline yesterday and, as always, many prospects were moved. I have the young players traded since early this month ranked below. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of were analyzed at length on this site. Those pieces can be found here, or by clicking the hyperlink in the “From” column below. I’ve moved all of the players below to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through and see where they rank among their new teammates; our farm rankings, which now update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up post-deadline.
A couple quick notes before I get to the order. The evaluations of players at the very bottom of the list (35 FV prospects) who weren’t on offseason prospect lists at all are subject to change as I continue to learn more about them. Follow the FanGraphs Prospects Twitter account or go to fangraphs.com/prospects for updates. Also, I’ve included a couple of post-prospect players in the order so you can get an idea of where I value them now as opposed to at their prospect peak. Both players, former top 100 guys, are highlighted in orange below.
| FV | Rank | Name | Position | Age | Team | From | For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 1 | Taylor Trammell | LF | 23.0 | SEA | SDP | Nola, etc. | The top-ranked prospect traded for a second straight year, Trammell projects as a leadoff-hitting left fielder with rare defensive ability for that position. He is coming off a down 2019. |
| 45 | 2 | Terrin Vavra | 2B | 23.3 | BAL | COL | M. Givens | Vavra is an athletic, albeit undersized, middle infielder with a profile driven by his contact ability. |
| 45 | 3 | Hudson Potts | 3B | 21.8 | BOS | SDP | M. Moreland | Potts is a young corner infielder with plus power and strikeout issues. |
| 45 | 4 | Joey Cantillo | LHP | 20.7 | CLE | SDP | M. Clevinger | Cantillo has an out-pitch changeup, low-90s velocity that might yet grow, and underlying traits that will help it play even if it doesn’t. |
| 40+ | 5 | Gabriel Arias | SS | 20.5 | CLE | SDP | M. Clevinger | Arias has everyday physical ability led by a plus glove and above-average power, and he also has a very aggressive approach that might be a problem versus major league arms. |
| 40+ | 6 | Franklin Barreto | SS | 24.5 | LAA | OAK | T. La Stella | Barreto has a potent bat control & power combo that has been totally undone by a feckless approach. Opinions are mixed on his glove. |
| 40+ | 7 | Stuart Fairchild | CF | 24.5 | ARI | CIN | A. Bradley | Fairchild is a well-rounded center fielder who I expect to make a push for big league outfield reps next year. |
| 40+ | 8 | Andres Muñoz | RHP | 21.6 | SEA | SDP | Nola, etc. | Muñoz is a young, high-leverage relief prospect with triple-digit heat. He had TJ in March. |
| 40+ | 9 | Jeisson Rosario | CF | 20.9 | BOS | SDP | M. Moreland | Rosario walks a lot and makes plenty of contact, but that contact often isn’t great. He’s the best athlete on this list. |
| 40 | 10 | Tyler Nevin | 1B | 23.3 | BAL | COL | M. Givens | Nevin is a 1B/3B with enough of a hit/power combo to be a role-playing piece, but he probably lacks the raw juice to play every day. |
| 40 | 11 | Owen Miller | SS | 23.8 | CLE | SDP | M. Clevinger | Miller has modest physical ability but his excellent feel for contact gives him a shot to play a consistent middle infield role. |
| 40 | 12 | Connor Seabold | RHP | 24.4 | BOS | PHI | B. Workman | Seabold is a strike-throwing righty coming off a 2019 injury, and has developed an improved changeup. |
| 40 | 13 | Lucius Fox | SS | 23.2 | KCR | TBR | B. Phillips | Fox is a speedy switch-hitter who projects in a multi-positional up-the-middle role. |
| 40 | 14 | Edward Olivares | CF | 23.1 | KCR | SDP | T. Rosenthal | Olivares has an interesting frame/hit/power combo for someone who can play an okay center field, but his approach dilutes his production so he projects as more of a platoon type. |
| 40 | 15 | Packy Naughton | LHP | 24.6 | LAA | CIN | B. Goodwin | Naughton is a high-probability backend starter/bulk relief type. |
| 40 | 16 | Kevin Smith | LHP | 23.3 | BAL | NYM | M. Castro | Smith is a high-probability backend starter/bulk relief type. |
| 40 | 17 | Zack Short | SS | 25.3 | DET | CHC | C. Maybin | Short is a good-gloved shortstop who walks a lot and has consistent doubles power. |
| 40 | 18 | Marcus Smith | CF | 20.0 | TEX | OAK | M. Minor | Smith is a plus-plus runner with advanced feel for contact; his body has limited physical projection. |
| 40 | 19 | Riley O’Brien | RHP | 24.5 | CIN | TBR | C. Reed | O’Brien is an older, fastball-heavy relief prospect. |
| 40 | 20 | Griffin Conine | RF | 26.9 | MIA | TOR | J. Villar | Conine has huge power, and scary strikeouts. |
| 40 | 21 | Luis Basabe | OF | 24.0 | SFG | CHW | Cash | Basabe is a once-prominent prospect who now projects as a fourth outfielder. |
| 35+ | 22 | Travis Bergen | LHP | 23.5 | ARI | TOR | R. Ray | A lefty with a new delivery, Bergen has a nasty breaking ball, and saw a velo spike that has his fastball creeping into the mid-90s. |
| 35+ | 23 | Humberto Mejia | RHP | 27.3 | ARI | MIA | S. Marte | Mejia is a below-average athlete and strike-thrower with a terrific vertical fastball/curveball combo. |
| 35+ | 24 | Anthony Banda | LHP | 27.1 | TBR | SFG | Cash | Banda graduated from prospectdom this week and was DFA’d. His velo is down two ticks, and his repertoire had been pared down to FB/CH. He’s a reclamation project for SF. |
| 35+ | 25 | Gerardo Reyes | RHP | 27.3 | LAA | SDP | J. Castro | Reyes is a funky reliever with big arm strength and 35 command. |
| 35 | 26 | Addison Russ | RHP | 25.8 | NYY | PHI | D. Hale | Russ touched 96 last year but his best pitch is a reality-bending changeup. He also has an average curveball. He’s a little older and has below-average control, but he should be an up/down reliever. |
| 35 | 27 | Matt Brash | RHP | 22.3 | SEA | SDP | T. Williams | Brash is a developmental relief prospect with vertically-oriented stuff. |
| 35 | 28 | Julio Frias | LHP | 22.3 | ARI | MIA | S. Marte | Frias has been up to 97 and his fastball has huge tailing action, but he has 30 control and inconsistent secondaries. |
| 35 | 29 | Israel Puello | RHP | 19.9 | MIL | PHI | D. Phelps | A big-framed righty with a long arm action and high slot, Puello struck out lots of hitters last year even though he sat just 88-90. |
| 35 | 30 | Dustin Harris | 1B/LF | 21.1 | TEX | OAK | M. Minor | Harris was a Day 3 college sleeper whose bat looked good last summer. The 1B/LF defensive fit makes it a tough profile. |
| 35 | 33 | Mark Payton | CF | 28.7 | CIN | OAK | Cash | Payton is a replacement-level bench OF type. |
| 35 | 31 | Juan Geraldo | RHP | 19.1 | MIL | PHI | D. Phelps | Geraldo is a stocky righty up to 94, with a 3/4s arm slot. |
| 35 | 32 | Brandon Ramey | RHP | 20.0 | MIL | PHI | D. Phelps |
The number of players above constitutes roughly 60% of the prospects who were named and traded at last year’s deadline. The gap was made up by Players to Be Named Later, a count of which I have provided below. This does not include deals for which the players involved have been reported (technically, Julio Frias is a PTBNL but we know he’s headed to Arizona, so he’s in the above table), and instead includes only the PTBNL we don’t know the identities of, dating back to the start of the season when the Padres traded a PTBNL to Oakland for Jorge Mateo. In instances where we’re unsure whether the deal will involve a player or cash, a dollar sign ($) denotes that it might be the latter.
| Team | No. of PTBNL | Deal |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 6 | x2 ATL-Milone, HOU-Velazquez, MIA-Bleier, COL-Givens, NYM-Castro ($) |
| Texas Rangers | 5 | x3 NYM-Jurado, Frazier, Chirinos, x2 OAK-Minor |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | x2 CHC-J. Martinez, PHI-Garcia |
| Oakland Athletics | 2 | SDP-Mateo, CIN-Payton |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | TBR-Garcia, PIT-Davis |
| Arizona D-backs | 2 | CHC-Chafin ($), MIA-Marte |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | TOR-Stripling |
| Boston Red Sox | 2 | CHC-Osich ($), COL-Pillar |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | HOU-Raley |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | SDP-Rosenthal |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | TOR-Walker |
| San Diego Padres | 1 | CLE-Clevinger |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | CIN-Goodwin |
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Great breakdown. One quick note, Travis Bergen’s age seems to be populating wrong.
Ya, at age 22 vs. the actual 26 that would be a bad deal for the Jays.
Griffin Conine as well…
And Humberto Mejía
Obviously eric way more qualified than me along with the people he talks to but it is very interesting that you have potts over cantillo (and arias). Imo I’ve come to the conclusion that Cantillo is the best prospect padres actually dealt, i’ve grown pessimistic on Trammell and view Potts as a wrong side platoon 1Ber, which is not very valuable. It is true that Cantillo’s stuff is built to get low level batters out, but that changeup is wicked and will play at highest level. He gets really good vertical movement on the FB and hides the ball well. Development of a passable third pitch and a couple up ticks in velo and he could be a 3/high level 4 type. He already did show slight velo gain as last season was going on.
Funny note is the supposed PTBNL in the royals deal (who doesn’t seem like a real prospect) gave up the 1st homer abrams hit.
Love your work eric.
Edit: Should be pointed out that though Reyes had bad basic numbers last year, his expected statcast numbers are very strong
Isn’t it a problem that Cantillo hasn’t played above high A and is rule 5 eligible after 21? Is he ML ready after 21 with the missed development year this season?
He probably won’t be far off. With the advanced command changeup he can move fast and I think could even start next year in AA. Pretty easily worth the 40 man spot he will occupy imo
One thing to remember with Potts is he has been pushed up the latter very quickly by the Padres, so he’s been one of the youngest players at every level he played at.
For that reason, I’m not as worried about the swing and miss. Plus I think he has a real chance to stay at 3b (and has even played 2b) so I don’t really see the platoon 1b you see.
He’s too big/not quick enough for 3B imo. But sure if he sticks at third he has a chance to be a low OBP 2nd division starter. Scouts are also worried if the swing will work against premium velo and it’s a reason he struggled against AA last year
He has “played second.” It is not part of his future.
Tend to agree that given the choice, I’ll take the impact SS with above avg power and strike zone issues over the average 3B with above avg power who swings through pitches in the zone. I think it’s more likely that Potts s/b a 40+ than Arias a 45, but Potts definitely doesn’t seem to merit a higher FV.
Both have grooved swings, so I don’t see any differentiator there, but I’m slightly more inclined toward the guy who expands the zone over the guy who swings through strikes. All things considered, Arias’ defensive value pushes him definitively ahead for me.
I wish Conine stayed in Toronto to add to their list of sons of former big leaguers. But I guess Miami is the best place for a Conine to be. Also, Phil Nevin’s son is here.
How is Seabold up to a 40 if he wasn’t on the Phillies list and there’s no game action this year? Did he get healthy or something?
My guess is he was erroneously not on the Phillies list.
So how does the PTBNL work? Is it a pool of players or is it just a binary choice of traded player did well so player A is going or traded player didn’t play well so player B is going? If it is either or, do the teams set the terms of what good versus bad play is? And when is the deadline for PTBNL if any?
It changes by deal, there has been some talk of alternative site info being shared among teams. For the most part tho the PTBNL will already be agreed upon but just isn’t on the 60 man pool
In most years the PTBNL is a list, and which person on that list is determined by some sort of agreed-upon criteria, usually the performance of the rental player or whether a player being taken as a flyer amounts to anything
This year there’s a good chance that the lists are much more narrow or even really just an agreed-upon person who can’t be named due to the 60-man-only trade rules.
This happens sometimes in normal seasons as well because there is a rule preventing players from being traded for a certain window after they were initially drafted. If someone wants to trade a recent draftpick, they make them a PTBNL and then finish the deal when the player is able to be moved.
Its likely some of these PTBNL are still the more typical list/x or y depending on outcomes type arrangements, given that many of these trades were lower impact as you often see PTBNL trades. Where you see players you’d typically expect to be moved for a concrete return, its likely the player’s just not on the 60 man but has already been agreed to.
For example, it’s been revealed today that one of the two PTBNL in the Jays/Dodgers Stripling trade is Kendall Williams, a 20 year old 2019 draftee pitcher who isn’t in the 60 man pool. He can’t be moved to the Dodgers until the season ends, officially. But it’s also possible that the other PTBNL in the deal is one of 2 or 3 players to be determined by how Stripling performs for the Jays, with the Dodgers getting the player they prefer if Stripling is better for Toronto.
Just to clarify, recent draftees can no longer be traded as PTBNLs. Rules changed after Trea Turner (and Brad Wieck, who was actually named just a few days after Turner was).
Thanks.
Love the format, thanks
Dodgers just got gifted Kendall Williams for Ross Stripling somehow. What am I missing on Stripling? He throws strikes but every since missing his age 24 (TJ?) he’s been really really prone to giving up HRs
The M’s PTBNL for Walker has been confirmed (by their PR department’s Twitter account, oddly enough) to be OF Alberto Rodriguez. Since he was just after Conine on the Jays list, I presume he would be here as well.
This would be a silly and certainly pointless exercise, but I’d be interested to get Eric’s take on the probable grade of prospect going back in these PTBNL deals. Like Taijuan Walker is netting a 40 FV guy apparently, but the Hector Velazquez PTBNL might be the batboy or something.
I admit I’m curious about Eric’s evaluation of Naylor.
Am I reading it wrong or does the list say that Banda is going to the Rays from the Giants? It is the opposite, with the Rays sending him to S.F.
Where roughly would Torrens be if he was still prospect eligible? He is still effectively a prospect despite having a full year of service time.