12:01

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks! Welcome to my Tuesday chat. Please hang tight for a moment as I’m in the midst of conferring with editors about today’s piece

12:05

Jay Jaffe: Ok, I’m back but please bear with me if there are further interruptions. My long-awaited-threatened opus — “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Enjoy Batting Average Again” — is in the editorial pipeline. No, that’s not a joke, it’s a piece that’s five years in the making

12:07

Jay Jaffe: Since the Hall of Fame circus has left town, I’ve gotten back into the business of covering transactions via the Taylor Rogers trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-trade-for-taylor-taylor-not-tyler-or-…) and the Max Scherzer signing (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-takes-flight-to-toronto/)

12:07

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ll link to today’s piece when it’s up. In the meantime, on with the show…

12:09

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. The results you cite are a mixed blessing, indeed, but the particularities of the first group lead me to prefer a more inclusive Hall of Fame to a less inclusive one. That said, I’d be happier with the concept of a Trammel/Morris trade-off if it also included Lou Whitaker

Read the rest of this entry »

Max Scherzer is heading north of the border. On the heels of an injury-marred season, the three-time Cy Young winner agreed to a one-year, $15.5 million contract with the Blue Jays on Thursday. The deal is still pending a physical, no trivial matter for a 40-year-old pitcher who was limited to nine starts in 2024.

Scherzer spent the last season and change with the Rangers after being acquired from the Mets ahead of the 2023 trade deadline, and the past three seasons on a three-year, $130 million contract that set a record for the highest average annual value for a pitcher. This time around it’s former Tigers and Mets teammate Justin Verlander, whose subsequent two-year, $86.67 million deal with New York matched Scherzer’s AAV, more or less setting the market for over-40 future Hall of Famers coming off injury plagued seasons for AL West teams. He signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Giants earlier this month.

The Rangers didn’t get much out of Scherzer, whose time in Texas added up to just 17 regular season and three postseason starts interrupted by five separate trips to the injured list. That count doesn’t even include his being replaced on the World Series roster after leaving Game 3 with back spasms. Fortunately for the Rangers, they wrapped up their win over the Diamondbacks in five games, nipping in the bud any what-might-have-beens regarding Scherzer missing a potential Game 7 start. Read the rest of this entry »

Break up the twins! The Giants did just that on Wednesday, sending lefty Taylor Rogers and cash to the Reds in exchange for minor league righty Braxton Roxby. The move ends the two-year run that paired Rogers with his twin brother Tyler in San Francisco, and fortifies the back end of Cincinnati’s bullpen.

If you don’t have your scorecard handy, this Rogers brother is the lefty who throws from a three-quarters arm slot, with an average release angle of 29 degrees according to Statcast. The one still on the Giants is the righty submariner with an average arm angle of -64 degrees. Trevor Rogers is no relation, and the timing of this morning’s piece by Michael Baumann is just an eerie coincidence.

Taylor Rogers, who turned 34 on December 17 — Tyler did too, to be clear — is coming off a season in which he posted a career-low 2.40 ERA in 60 innings spread across 64 appearances. It was his third year in a row and the sixth time in his nine-year career that he’s reached the 60-game plateau. For as impressive as his ERA was, it was somewhat out of step with his 3.75 FIP and 3.29 xERA. While he lowered his walk rate from an unsightly 11.6% in 2023 to 8.8%, his strikeout rate fell from 29.6% to 25.7%, making his 16.9% K-BB% his worst mark since 2017. This was the third year in a row that Rogers’ strikeout rate has declined, from a high of 35.5% while he was with the Twins (but not with his twin) in 2021. The velocity of his sinker has been on the wane as well, dropping annually from a high of 95.7 mph in 2021 to 93.0 last year.

Rogers’ declining strikeout rate was offset by his dramatic improvement in suppressing hard contact. Where he was significantly below average in both 2022 and ’23, he was among the best in ’24:

So what changed? The big thing is that Rogers threw his sinker more often than his sweeper for the first time since 2020; his share of sinkers rose from 41.3% to 52.8%, and his share of those in the strike zone rose from 40.7% to 54.2%. That increase in sinker usage was sort of a hopping-on-the-bandwagon thing for Rogers, as the Giants threw more sinkers than any other club for the second straight year; their 26.4% rate led the majors, though it was actually down from their 28.1% rate in 2023, the highest of any team since the pandemic-shortened season. Rogers’ sinker was much more effective against righties than it had been in recent years, and while it would be a misnomer to suggest they tattooed his sweeper, both righties and lefties got much better results against it on contact than expected:

Overall, righties hit just .202/.268/.380 (.282 wOBA) against Rogers, while lefties slashed .284/.364/.421 (.343 wOBA). This was the first time Rogers showed a reverse platoon split since 2019, a handy outcome considering 57% of the batters he faced were righties, but it’s not necessarily a split that we should expect to continue. Over the past three years, Rogers has held lefties to a .253 wOBA, compared to .339 for righties.

Rogers joins lefties Sam Moll and Brent Suter in the Cincinnati bullpen. While Rogers has experience closing — he saved 79 games from 2019–22 with the Twins, Padres, and Brewers — he figures to share setup duties with righty Emilio Pagán in front of closer Alexis Díaz. Though he did trim his walk rate late in the season, Díaz was rather erratic last year, pitching to a 3.99 ERA and 4.57 FIP even while converting 28 of 32 save chances, so it’s definitely not a bad thing that Rogers gives new manager Terry Francona a ninth-inning alternative in case Díaz struggles.

The Giants will pay $6 million of the $12 million Rogers will make in the third year of his three-year, $33 million deal, so this is something of a bargain for the Reds. That $6 million bought the Giants the righty Roxby, who turns 26 in March. After going undrafted out of the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown, Roxby connected with the Reds during a Zoom meeting with the Kyle Boddy, then the team’s director of pitching, and assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers. “[T]hey had video breaking down my mechanics, as well as the analytics of my pitches and how I can use them better,” Roxby told David Laurila in 2021. “That made it hard not to choose them.”

The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Roxby posted a 5.21 ERA but a 28.8% strikeout rate in 48 1/3 innings at Double-A Chattanooga in 2024, his first full season in the upper minors. Eric Longenhagen graded his slider as a plus with his fastball and cutter both above average, though his command is just 30-grade. From Roxby’s prospect report:

Roxby’s fastball was up two ticks in 2024 and now lives in the mid-90s with uphill angle and tail. Roxby’s funky lower slot creates these characteristics. He tends to pitch backwards off of his sweeping mid-80s slider, which he commands better than his fastball. He has the stuff of a pretty standard middle reliever, though Roxby’s command puts him in more of an up/down bucket.

On the subject of the trade, Tyler Rogers shared this very sweet note:

In all, it’s hard to characterize this trade as an impact move for either team, but it is one of several additions the Reds have made this month — most notably the additions of Gavin Lux and Austin Hays — while trying to upgrade from last year’s 77-85 record. Who knows, maybe they’ll trade for Tyler (or Trevor) next?

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! For the first time in awhile I’m on my second chat of the month, as the Hall of Fame election is now behind us

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Before I forget: I’m going to be part of Nick Pollock’s PitchCon this Friday at 3 PM, doing  — what else — a Hall of Fame-related presentation while helping to raise $ for ALS research https://pitcherlist.com/pitchcon/2025/

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Please check it out if so inclined

12:03

Jay Jaffe: I’m very lucky to be in a position where FanGraphs give me as much space to cover the candidates and the Hall of Fame process. It’s a lot of fun, and i know it’s something people care deeply about. As I like to say, it’s been my dumb luck to happen upon a resource that is practically a renewable source of energy

12:05

Jay Jaffe: Given that the Veterans/Era Committees are generally about 50% players, it’s not surprising that they default to the more mainstream statistics which are not only usually offense-related but also centered more around old-school stats (AVG-HR-RBI, W-L) than new-school ones. That’s a lot of what drives the choices — with less thought to defense

12:06

Jay Jaffe: which isn’t to say that WAR and JAWS don’t get mentioned – I’ve been told my stuff gets circulated in the room but that’s not to say it’s driving voters’ choices

Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Last week, for the second year in a row, BBWAA voters elected a trio of players to the Hall of Fame, namely first year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, plus 10th-year candidate Billy Wagner. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones both finished within 10 points of election as well, setting themselves up for 2026. With that in mind, it’s time to look ahead to what the next five ballots have in store.

This is the 12th time I’ve broken out my crystal ball in such a manner, dating back to the wrap-up of my 2014 election coverage at SI.com. As of last year, I’ve now done this more times at FanGraphs than Sports Illustrated. That first edition was so long ago that candidates still had 15 years of eligibility instead of 10, and so I could afford to project Tim Raines for election in 2018, his 11th year of eligibility. The Hall’s unilateral decision to truncate candidacies to 10 years would come just months later, though thankfully voters accelerated their acceptance of Raines, who was elected in 2017. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The 2025 Hall of Fame election is in the books, with another trio — first-year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia joined by 10th-year candidate Billy Wagner — getting voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America. While Suzuki’s possible unanimity and Carlos Beltrán’s strong showing on publicly tracked ballots created some amount of suspense leading up to the announcement, nobody scraped the bar; all three candidates who made the cut cleared at least 80% of the vote. The last time everybody elected made it by such a comfortable margin was in 2016, when Ken Griffey Jr. (99.3%) and Mike Piazza (83%) gained entry, with the class of ’18 just missing out because Trevor Hoffman (79.9%) lagged. Suzuki, Sabathia, and Wagner will be inducted in Cooperstown along with Classic Baseball honorees Dave Parker and the late Dick Allen on July 27, 2025.

Here’s a tidbit you might not have been aware of that ties this class together: all three honorees are natural-born right-handers who learned to do their most important job left-handed. Wagner famously broke his right arm twice at age seven and learned to throw lefty, Sabathia struggled in T-ball until switching hands, and Suzuki was taught to hit lefty by his father. Both pitchers took their cuts lefty as well, though Ichiro threw right-handed.

As usual, beyond the topline results, there’s plenty to ruminate on. So as promised, here’s my candidate-by-candidate breakdown of the entire slate of 28 candidates, 15 of whom will return to the ballot next year. Note that except where indicated, all references to percentages in Ryan Thibodaux’s indispensable Tracker are based upon data as of 9 a.m. ET on Thursday. Read the rest of this entry »

As Derek Jeter goes, so goes Ichiro Suzuki. For the second time in the history of the National Baseball Hall of Fame, a candidate with an impeccable résumé has missed unanimous selection by a single vote from among nearly 400 ballots, leaving Mariano Rivera as the only player to run the table. Nonetheless — and far more importantly — Suzuki is Cooperstown-bound. In the voting results that were announced on Tuesday evening, Suzuki received 99.7% of the vote, and was joined by two other honorees, namely first-year candidate CC Sabathia (86.8%) and 10th-year candidate Billy Wagner (82.5%), the latter after missing election by just five votes last year.

Based upon the 216 ballots published in the Ballot Tracker prior to the announcement of the results, the only questions that carried real suspense were whether Suzuki would be unanimous and whether third-year candidate Carlos Beltrán would clear 75%. Beltran received 81.5% of the vote on published ballots, but finished with 70.3%, still a healthy 13.2-point jump from last year. Eighth-year candidate Andruw Jones, whose Tracker share hovered just below 75% for most of the cycle, finished with 66.2%. No other candidate received more than 40%, with second-year candidate Chase Utley (39.8%) the closest. Beltrán and Jones are well-positioned for election with next year’s slate, which lacks any candidate likely to be honored in his first year; Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun head that class.

This is the second year in a row that the writers have tabbed three candidates, after last year’s trio of Adrian Beltré, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer, and the seventh time in the past 12 cycles that the writers have elected more than two candidates. Over the 2014–25 span, the writers have elected 30 candidates, that despite one shutout (2021) and two cycles with just a single honoree (’22 and ’23). Read the rest of this entry »

Based upon the early returns, BBWAA voters appear likely to hit another trifecta on Tuesday when the results of this year’s Hall of Fame election are announced at 6 p.m. Eastern — and there’s even an outside chance that a fourth candidate could crash the party. But if the FanGraphs readers who participated in this year’s crowdsource ballot had their way, only two players would make the cut. In this year’s edition of our annual polling, which for the second year in a row set a new record for turnout, first-year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia were the only ones who topped 75%. Billy Wagner fell short despite the strong likelihood of his getting the call from the Hall in his 10th and final year on the ballot, and Carlos Beltrán — who has polled above 80% on the ballots released publicly thus far — missed out as well.

I’ll take a closer read of the tea leaves based upon the writers’ ballots that have been revealed, but first, let’s consider the readers’ entries. Registered users who participated in our poll were each allowed to submit one ballot with up to 10 candidates by the end of the day on December 31, just like roughly 400 BBWAA voters did for this year’s actual election — only we ink-stained wretches had to get to a mailbox with a prepaid envelope, where our users voted electronically. After more than tripling our turnout from 2023 (an unusually low year) to ’24 to set a record, we added another 344 votes this time around, a 20.7% increase:

Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Adam Jones was Mr. Baltimore. Though he was born in San Diego and began his major league career in Seattle, Jones took to Baltimore upon being traded to the Orioles in 2008. On the field, he set an example for younger teammates during lean years, and his combination of power, speed, and graceful defense eventually helped the team end an epic streak of futility. He served as a starter on the Orioles’ first three playoff teams in this millennium, winning four Gold Gloves and making five All-Star teams. Off the field, Jones invested in the city, annually donating a significant chunk of his salary to the local Boys & Girls Club and other charitable endeavors. He emerged as a civic icon, a Black athlete who could relate to the hardships experienced by the city’s Black population, and one who wasn’t afraid to speak out regarding the injustices he saw both locally and nationally.

Jones’ national prominence reached its zenith in 2017 when he made a memorable, iconic catch to rob Manny Machado of a home run while playing center field during the World Baseball Classic — a key moment in helping Team USA win the tournament for the only time thus far. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Fernando Rodney is a man of many hats, most of them slightly askew. Over the course of a 17-year major league career, the Dominican-born reliever showed off his signature style while pitching for 11 different teams, and that’s not even counting his minor league, independent, winter league, or international stops. During his time, he notched 327 saves (19th all-time), made three All-Star teams, and pitched in two World Series, earning a ring with the 2019 Washington Nationals. In the process, he gave the hearts of his managers plenty of workouts as his command came and went, forcing him to work his way out of jams. But when it all came together for Rodney — as it did in 2012, when he posted a microscopic 0.60 ERA while saving 48 games for the Rays — he was a sight to behold.

Rodney’s crooked hat was just one of his famous quirks. He also shot an imaginary arrow into the sky after closing games, most famously upon recording the final out for the Dominican Republic in the 2013 World Baseball Classic championship game.

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