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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/13/15

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Within we shall discuss baseball and your experiences with it

9:08
Comment From uruguayan
Played that way, is Brock Holt a league average shortstop?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s kick it off with some Brock Holt questions

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I think the answer is no. For a while it could seem like yes, when Holt is riding a wave of singles, but I don’t find him particularly gifted in the middle infield, and I don’t actually like his offense that much

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Angels Acquire Andrelton Simmons

Editor’s note: Jeff wrote this as an InstaGraphs post when the trade was announced, but when I got around to looking at it, I noticed he wrote almost 900 words. That’s a normal-length FanGraphs post, so I’m moving it to the front page. I’m leaving the IG post up in its original place so that your comments will be retained, however.

UPDATE: Angels also getting catcher Jose Briceno. Briceno is 23, and he spent last year in high-A, but he also posted an OPS of .482, and, yes, that’s a 4, and no, that’s not a mistake. Of course, he’s hit better in the past. He’s been a decent prospect in the past. Right now, his career needs to be rescued.

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The day began with thoughts on a potential Andrelton Simmons blockbuster. As the day ends, half of what was discussed has come true — Simmons has been traded, and even to the general Los Angeles area. He just hasn’t been traded to the Dodgers, or for Yasiel Puig.

Rather, Simmons’ new teammates will be the rest of the Angels. And, headed to the Braves in exchange: Erick Aybar, Sean Newcomb, Chris Ellis, and a bit of money.

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How You Felt About 2015

Earlier in the week, I asked you some questions. It was all very easy — one poll for each of the 30 teams, this being a sample:

royals-poll

It was part of an attempted project, and a project is no good if you don’t at some point advance to the results. So now we get to discuss some of the findings, with thousands of votes having rolled in. For all I know, there’ll be more posts later on that are based on this data set. That’s the neat thing about having data — once you have it, it’s good forever. But we can address the major stuff. What happens later happens later.

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Mariners Get Joaquin Benoit, Who Won’t Go Away

Here’s the difference between now and the trade deadline. At the trade deadline, when the Twins went out and picked up Kevin Jepsen, I shrugged and kept thinking about other, potentially bigger things. I forgot about the move five minutes after I learned about it. Now, this is a whole post about the Mariners going out and picking up Joaquin Benoit from the Padres. Not that Benoit and Jepsen are identical, but they belong in the tier of second- or third-class moves. As such, I’m sure many of you couldn’t care less about this, but before you go away, let me tell you — Benoit remains one interesting reliever. Good relief pitching is en vogue at the moment, and while Benoit will be 39 next July, he doesn’t seem to be on the verge of anything but another strong 65 innings.

Benoit is going to cost $7.5 million. The Mariners got him from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos and Nelson Ward, and while De Los Santos is a young one with a big arm, there’s a reason those are two unfamiliar names. Neither is likely to do anything at the highest level; Benoit is likely to go another season or three. For the Padres, there’s nothing wrong with shedding salary and adding a live-armed project. But, necessarily, this is more interesting from the Mariners’ side. As long as Benoit has pitched, he still seems capable of keeping opponents off base.

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Three Keys to Understanding Aaron Hicks

You’re forgiven if you don’t much care about Wednesday’s swap of Aaron Hicks for JR Murphy. Maybe you’re not a fan of the Twins or the Yankees. Maybe you’re not a fan of baseball at all, and you somehow wound up here by accident. Or maybe you are a fan of the Twins or the Yankees, but you recognize this as a trade featuring two players with less than 2 combined WAR over more than 1,200 plate appearances. Hicks has been probably the more hyped of the two, but Murphy is the younger of the two, and he seems like a backup. This isn’t on the level of Brad Miller and Nate Karns, and even that wasn’t on the level of something truly big.

These are the moves we have available to discuss, though, and if you want to speak generally, every professional baseball player has a compelling story. They’re all tremendously talented, and they’ve all dreamed of big-league success. If you want to speak specifically, Hicks is interesting, and I’d rate his level of interest above-average. He’s a former top prospect who’s trying to recover from initial struggles, and the most recent year saw him take a step forward. As far as this trade is concerned, it’s important to understand 2015 Aaron Hicks, and what follows are three keys to fully grasping the Hicks campaign. What he was in 2014, he wasn’t this summer.

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Clayton Kershaw Isn’t the Clayton Kershaw of Everything

I don’t know if Clayton Kershaw is going to win the Cy Young Award, but I know he deserves to as much as anybody else. Three years ago, he won the Cy Young by allowing a .521 OPS. Two years ago, he won the Cy Young by allowing a .521 OPS. This year, he might win the Cy Young after allowing a .521 OPS. Maybe he wouldn’t mind a loss so much; he’s already won three of these things, plus a league MVP. He’s not hurting for hardware. But then, it’s not like Clayton Kershaw likes to lose.

He is the total package, as a pitcher, as a player, as a person. On the field, he’s proven his durability. He’s turned himself into a good hitter for his position. He’s also a good defender, who’s difficult to run against. Few pitchers have Kershaw’s know-how, and few pitchers have his command. Kershaw throws what rates as one of the best fastballs in baseball. He throws what rates as one of the best sliders in baseball. He throws what rates as one of the best curveballs in baseball. He does everything, and he’s 27. There’s no such thing as an actually perfect pitcher, but Kershaw is as close as it gets. There are no meaningful weaknesses. He’s even now proven himself in the playoffs.

There’s just this one thing. This one nearly irrelevant thing, that bothers Kershaw even if it doesn’t bother anybody else. Ask anyone else, and they’d tell you that Kershaw is as good as they come. Ask Kershaw, and he’d tell you he wishes he could throw a decent changeup.

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The Extra Value of Having an Elite Reliever

The Royals have got all of us thinking. It’s not so much about the Royals finding the only way to win, but they’ve definitely found an interesting way to win, and given their accomplishments you can’t just sweep it away as luck. The Royals have won with a bullpen-heavy model, and now it’s going to be interesting to see if other teams respond by putting more resources toward their relief. On the one hand, according to reports, there are a lot of excellent relievers on the market, as sellers try to meet perceived demand. On the other hand, I guess, every reliever addition is also a reliever subtraction, so. The point is, expect bullpens to be in focus.

And bullpens, I think, are something we struggle to measure. So much attention is paid to the difficulty of evaluating defense, but we also run into some trouble trying to value really good or really bad relievers. We’ve got reliever WAR, which takes leverage somewhat into consideration, but there’s an argument reliever WAR is missing something, something that, say, underrates how much a great reliever is really worth.

The goal here isn’t to try to answer everything. Bullpens are complicated and I can’t develop a model for everything in a day. I’ve simplified, to try to address one point. We already have reliever WAR. How have teams with an elite reliever actually done, compared to teams without one?

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How Did You Feel About the 2015 Season? (National League)

Hello friends, and welcome to the National League version of Monday’s American League poll post. This is part of a little project, and after this I’m done gathering information, which means you’re done having to participate. (You don’t have to participate. But please do!) I don’t know exactly where the project is going to go, but I know I’d love to have the data.

I’ll copy and paste. This post is for fans of teams in the National League. If there are multiple teams you hold near and dear, feel free to vote in multiple polls. If you consider yourself more a fan of the game in general, then you can either sit this out, or vote in the poll for the team you feel most strongly about.

All I want to know: how did you feel about the 2015 season? As far as following your favorite team was concerned, how would you rate your overall fan experience? Use whatever criteria you like. How you feel is how you feel — vote according to that feeling. How was the regular season? Did the end spoil the middle? Did your team have a bunch of exciting young players? Did you love going to the ballpark? I understand there’s a lot of input here — there are months of individual days, each day with its own feeling. I just want to know your overall grade, as you reflect on the season that was. There are no wrong answers. Unless you lie to me for no reason.

All the polls are below. Click a team name to go straight to that part and bypass the others.

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How Did You Feel About the 2015 Season? (American League)

With the World Series a week and change behind us, but with the offseason still almost entirely ahead and unknown, now seems like the right time to try a little project I’ve had on my mind for a month or so. The annoying(?) bit is that the project requires your participation, in the form of voting in a poll, but then that’s a really easy thing to do, and the question should be pretty simple, and on my end, I get to spend a couple posts embedding polls for your own feedback. Something easy for you, and something easy for me? Everybody wins!

This post is for fans of teams in the American League. The National League post will go up Tuesday morning. If there are multiple teams you hold near and dear, feel free to vote in multiple polls. If you consider yourself more a fan of the game in general, then you can either sit this out, or vote in the poll for the team you feel most strongly about.

All I want to know: how did you feel about the 2015 season? As far as following your favorite team was concerned, how would you rate your overall fan experience? Use whatever criteria you like. How you feel is how you feel — vote according to that feeling. How was the regular season? Did the end spoil the middle? Did your team have a bunch of exciting young players? Did you love going to the ballpark? I understand there’s a lot of input here — there are months of individual days, each day with its own feeling. I just want to know your overall grade, as you reflect on the season that was. There are no wrong answers. Except probably in the Royals poll.

All the polls are below. Hopefully the anchor text works to send you to your team directly!

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Byung-ho Park Can Hit the (Snot) Out of the Ball

A few days ago, it was reported Miguel Sano would play some outfield during winterball. That’s easy enough to evaluate in isolation — there’s nothing wrong with trying to increase flexibility, and Sano is a bit young to permanently stuff into the DH box. But that’s also easy to interpret as part of a larger process. Word’s out the Twins placed the high bid to negotiate with South Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park. The winning bid of $12.85 million is more than double the winning bid a year ago for Jung-ho Kang, and it’s more than the total value of the four-year contract Kang later signed. It’s pretty clear now that Kang opened some eyes, and though the Twins and Park will still need to reach an agreement, you assume something will get done. The Twins are among baseball’s Byung-ho Park believers.

The question following any transaction is always, is it good? Is it worth it? That can be hard enough to answer when we have a ton of information. It’s far more difficult here. Park, obviously, has no major-league experience, no American track record to examine. We don’t know what the terms of his contract are going to be. We don’t even know that much about the market, or about how the Twins evaluated all their options. I don’t know if this is going to be “worth it,” to the dollar. What I do know is it’ll be good to see what Park can accomplish at the highest level. He’s earned this opportunity, and he’s earned it by demonstrating that he can hit the living crap out of a baseball.

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