Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/13/15

November 13, 2015

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Within we shall discuss baseball and your experiences with it

9:08	Comment From uruguayan Played that way, is Brock Holt a league average shortstop?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s kick it off with some Brock Holt questions

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I think the answer is no. For a while it could seem like yes, when Holt is riding a wave of singles, but I don’t find him particularly gifted in the middle infield, and I don’t actually like his offense that much

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Useful utility guy, but I think an easy one to overrate. Neat 10th man!

9:11	Comment From ERIC BLAIR We know what the Jays paid to get Donaldson. As a comparison to what they gave up, what would they get if they traded him now.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Pick a prospect. Any prospect! There’s your starting point

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Three more years of team control, probably three more years of being a top-end talent

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Dave put Donaldson at #17 in his trade-value list in July and then Donaldson was only even better in the second half

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Stupid, stupid value. He won’t be cheap in his remaining arbitration years, but he’ll be incredibly cheap relative to what he’s worth

9:14	Comment From Larry Bernandez So I’m probably one of a million people asking about your thoughts on the Simmons trade. Seems like Anaheim just committed grand theft.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of really strong reactions to this trade! Braves fans seem devastated to lose the best defensive player in the game. Angels fans seem distraught by the state of what’s left of the system

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably not surprising my response is less emotional. I like Simmons quite a bit, although I don’t think his bat comes around all that much. Looking at a 3-4 win shortstop. And I have a thing against pitching prospects who don’t throw enough strikes, which neither Ellis nor Newcomb do

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: So I come down on the Angels’ side of things. I don’t buy the argument that they filled a hole that didn’t exist — Simmons is better than Aybar now, nevermind the other four years

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: What is a tiny bit strange is that the Angels don’t have a groundball-y pitching staff, but then neither did the Braves. And pitching staffs change over five-year windows

9:17	Comment From c 10/10 on the twitter announcement for baseball chat

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: The worst part is going to a website for famous quotes. Those websites are terrible and everything is mis-attributed

9:17	Comment From Bill Do Angels now have the worst farm system in majors? It’s lookin’ pretty empty.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, it was bad 24 hours ago

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I think that’s a part of the reaction here — because Newcomb and Ellis were rated as the top two prospects in the system, it can feel like this is mortgaging the future. But if another team with a thicker system made the same deal, the pitchers wouldn’t stand out as much

9:20

Comment From lunch
can you make me feel better about the simmons trade? being a braves fan has turned into a series of considerable bummers with the promise that things will be better in the suburbs. like if your parents started giving away all your toys when you were a kid, and they were just like “dont worry – we’re only doing this so you’ll have more fun when we get divorced.”

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Things that are good in the long run can feel terrible in the short-term. Later on, after you recover, you won’t remember this pain. Which isn’t to say that every individual move the Braves have made has been good, but overall the process has been rewarding and lucrative in terms of talent acquired, and you have to think some of that talent will develop as hoped

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: In a few years, the Braves will again be competitive, and there will be new players that fans have fallen in love with. Maybe even Sean Newcomb. This is a break-up. But after most break-ups, there are other relationships

9:22	Comment From mmarsden Surprised about the Rasmus QO and acceptance?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: The first one’s always surprising, but if you’re given that someone was going to accept the QO, it’s not a shock it was Rasmus. He’s probably not quite a player worth giving up a high draft pick for.

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: The QO wasn’t a shock, either — teams keep pushing the boundaries on what kinds of players get offered these things, and Rasmus is probably worth around what he’ll be paid for a year. The Astros might’ve preferred a higher-profile left fielder, but they’ll take this and move forward, looking instead to add to the arms

9:24	Comment From Phil Did the Angels give up too much in Newcomb and Ellis to acquire Andrelton Simmons?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Entirely depends on how you feel about the Braves’ ability to teach command

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: On the one hand, they’ve got Foltynewicz throwing some strikes. On the other hand, lots of them were bad strikes

9:27	Comment From Andrew Are the Astros happy or sad that Rasmus accepted the QO?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they’re a *little* more sad than happy, because of course the preference would be to have a new draft pick, but they can’t be too upset. Rasmus is fine, and versatile, and he isn’t 30. When Marisnick and Tucker stopped hitting, it was revealed they don’t actually have that much OF depth

9:31	Comment From Justin What’s your take on the Jim Benedict for Trevor Williams deal? How much value could a “pitching guru” actually have?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: First of all, for one thing, I’m not all that high on Williams. He’s a prospect, but not an elite one

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: But with Benedict, you’re talking about one of the people responsible for the Pirates’ pitching magic. He’s a guy who’s worked alongside Ray Searage. I’d be willing to pay a good amount to bring some of that into my own organization

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I used to hear rumors that the Marlins kind of sucked at pitching instruction. They’ve had a bunch of real talented arms, but not a lot in the way of guidance. It was kind of, throw as hard as you can and see what happens. If this helps them polish some of that talent, they can turn other guys into the next Trevor Williams

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The short of it: I like it, for the Marlins

9:34	Comment From The Decadent Moose Was the Simmons trade as much about Ozhaino Albies as Sean Newcomb? The upgrade in offense isn’t that sognificant considering the #Barves lineup as a whole.

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Albies is still 18 and he spent the year in single-A. He was still a year or two from pushing Simmons, at least. So, no, Albies didn’t lead to any sense of urgency. But as related matter, it is worth remembering that when Kiley evaluated the Braves last season, he called Albies their No. 1 prospect. That was aggressive, and I doubt he’s backed off of that since

9:37	Comment From Matt How are the Braves going to build a quality offense? Is Teheran and a prospect for Baez on the table?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty soon the Swisher/Bourn/Aybar money is gone. So they’ll have money to spend. The offense currently sucks, but it also sucked yesterday, when they still had Simmons. Obviously they’re hoping that Olivera can be good for at least a 100 wRC+. If enough pitching develops, that can be exchanged

9:38	Comment From The Dude Is Brock Holt the poor man’s Zobrist?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Every organization has a poor man’s Zobrist. Currently zero organizations have a version as useful as Zobrist

9:40	Comment From Rick How can the Braves possibly contend by 2017, especially if they are unwilling to spend in this year’s free agent market? I was already doubting the timeline, and now it has become even more difficult to envision.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: In 2013, the Astros lost 111 games. The Cubs lost 96. Even the Mets lost 88.

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Which is not to say the Braves are on as good a course, but in the recent past, struggling teams have quickly turned into promising teams. All it takes to get the right attention is the development of one or two high-quality young players. Then it’s easier to imagine things snowballing

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t personally think the Braves are real good in 2017, but I think they’ll be plenty interesting. So much is riding on their player development

9:43	Comment From Robert Jeff, be honest. If these chats were at 10 AM would you be on time?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I do actually hit my peak between 10 – 2. Even when these chats finally get started, it still takes me a bit to get rolling downhill

9:43	Comment From Will Graham Jeff, please solve the Jorge Posada mystery for me. Why is he constantly the most searched guy? Nobody on Twitter or in articles is helping.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I will make it my personal mission to investigate

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: For whatever it’s worth, there were at least a few minutes yesterday when the most searched player was Joaquin Benoit

9:45	Comment From ERIC BLAIR Which teams should have pushed harder to make a deal for Simmons.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Not sure. Lots of teams could use him. A’s could’ve found out if the Braves like any of their young pitchers

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Mets are an obvious suggestion but it doesn’t seem like anything was going to happen there

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: You wonder if the Orioles might’ve in any way been able to get the Braves interested in what’s left of Dylan Bundy

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Granted I don’t know what you do with Hardy but I keep imagining Simmons and Machado on the same side of the same infield

9:48	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Would you rather have a avg defensive SS that hit 300/350/450 or a great defensive SS that hit 250/300/350 (same speed, age and everything).

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I assume the two players are supposed to have equal WAR

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t thought this all the way through but I think I want to say the second guy?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: You can reduce his impact on the offense by batting him lower in the lineup, and it gives you the opportunity to acquire groundball pitchers he can make better

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: An unanswered question so far — how important are elite shortstops in an age of constant shifting? If teams get better and better at positioning, how much range will that make up for?

9:51	Comment From Ryan Historically, what rebuilding philosophy has worked better: stock up on hitting prospects & sign/trade for pitching like Cubs, or stock up on pitching prospects and sign/trade for hitting like Braves?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I don’t think we have enough of a history. How many rebuilding teams have ever stuck with either extreme? And it’s such a hard thing to review after the fact anyway

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: My assumption is that the Cubs have the superior model

9:52

Comment From BengieStacks
Hey Jeff, really enjoy your perspective, you seem like a pretty introspective dude. Got a couple questions for you regarding clubhouse. What’s your take on the importance of having a couple personalities on the team? And based on that answer how much would you pay Jonny Gomes to be your team’s hype man?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s beneficial to have a diverse clubhouse that has a few players who can move around between groups. Unifiers, in a way — guys who can communicate with anyone. Juan Uribe seems to be an example. Hopefully these players can also play baseball

9:54	Comment From TF Fredrik Crater Lake for Jackson Hole, who says no first Jeff!!!!!!!!?????????

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Be real. Too many logistical problems

9:54	Comment From Hank G. Do you think we will ever be free of “God Bless America” at ball games? Remember, they started playing “The Star-Spangled Banner” in response to World War I.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Many FanGraphs readers will still be alive for the days when we’re free of the song. However some of them will have become dead

9:57

Comment From Baseball Fan
I tried to ask Dave this on Wednesday but failed and used the wrong comment box. Everybody seems to think that the Tigers should dismantle the team right now. But with all their bad contracts that they probably can’t sell to players who might be able to contribute something in 2016 doesn’t it make sense for them to try to reload for one final run in 2016? It seems inevitable they’re going to suck for several years anyway why not try to get lucky with one last run?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s a bounceback in them. Just think about what they could get from a healthy and recovered Victor Martinez. If they acquire a pitcher or two and an outfielder, they can charge for a wild card in this coming season. It’s not all so bleak

9:58	Comment From Matt What , if anything, does Simmons return tell you about value of Baez & Castro?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Simmons has an elite skill he regularly applies. Baez and Castro don’t

9:59	Comment From Derek Carr Do the A’s sign Bartolo or Kazmir to go with the Reddick extension?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I want to say they’re full on pitchers, but it’s possible they’ll all get hurt again