Royals sign Garrett Hampson to one-year, $2 million deal

Hampson defines what it means to be a utility player — the 26th man on the roster who contributes not through offensive prowess but via baserunning and defensive versatility. Despite once being a 50 FV prospect, he never became an everyday regular with the Rockies, hovering around replacement level thanks to his consistently poor hitting (he posted a wRC+ of 64 in each of his first three full seasons in a Khris Davis-esque streak). Concerns about his power potential in the minors were validated by his pedestrian exit velocities in the majors, maxing out at 11 homers even in the favorable conditions of Coors Field.

After being non-tendered by Colorado, Hampson signed a one-year deal with the Marlins, where he was roughly a league-average hitter over 250 plate appearances. This sudden uptick in offense was largely a mirage of batted ball luck; he posted a .379 BABIP compared to a .320 career baseline (in the ballpark with the highest BABIP), the lowest barrel rate of his career, and no improvements in walk or strikeout rates.

You certainly shouldn’t be expecting anything resembling a league-average hitting line from Hampson, but his baserunning and defense are still enviable. He has averaged +4.2 BaseRuns per 150 games played, and while he’s not a volume stealer, he has an 81% career success rate. His skills on the basepaths have translated to defensive range at every single position besides first base and catcher. It’s extremely difficult to maintain a high quality of fielding despite being constantly ping-ponged between the infield and outfield, especially from the beginning of a big league career, yet Hampson has performed admirably wherever he’s been stationed.

Hampson has been above average with the glove spending the considerable majority of his time at up-the-middle positions, an asset to teams who can spend a roster spot on a defense-first player and/or rebuilding clubs looking to boost their inexperienced pitching staffs with solid gloves. The Royals certainly fit the latter criteria, with eight members of their current projected pitching staff, including three members of the starting rotation, entering 2024 with fewer than three years of service time. A most likely use case for Hampson will be as a platoon partner with the left-handed Kyle Isbel and Michael Massey, though he could get time almost anywhere given the lack of proven talents on the roster.

Mets sign Joey Wendle to one-year, $2 million deal

Wendle is best known for his four-year tenure with the Rays, where he thrice eclipsed 500 plate appearances and 3 WAR (or a pro-rated 2020 equivalent) despite never locking down a single position. Instead, he rotated between second, third, and shortstop, primarily manning the keystone early on, then seamlessly shifting the bulk of his starts to third base when Brandon Lowe had a fully healthy season at second. When he hit at an above-average clip, he did so without much pop or plate discipline, putting bat on ball and consistently placing line drives into the outfield. He maximized his productivity given his lack of raw power or lift in his swing, but it relied on his plus speed and bat control, which couldn’t last forever.

Wendle broke into the majors late, playing his first full season for the Rays at age 28. Despite entering free agency for the first time, 2024 will represent his age-34 season. As a result, he’s lost a step over the years, evident in his declining defensive and baserunning value. He took extra bases on hits less frequently than before, and last season was his first as a below-average defender by RAA. His line-drive rate went from great with the Rays to below-average with the Marlins, and hitting the ball on the ground over half the time isn’t effective for someone who doesn’t have the foot speed to leg out infield hits. The warning signs were there in his age-31 season in 2021, so it’s unsurprising Tampa traded him that offseason, (correctly) anticipating a future decline. Wendle was never great with the Marlins, but his production completely fell apart during the last couple months of his tenure there, with a -6 wRC+ over the last two months of the year.

Wendle will slide into the role previously held by fellow left-handed multi-positional infielder Luis Guillorme, who was non-tendered following a down year truncated by a calf injury. It’s somewhat surprising that Guillorme was let go given his arbitration estimate of $1.7 million and track record of success in a bench role, especially with his disciplined approach at the plate and high walk rates. Should both Wendle and Guillorme return to form next season, the Mets will be trading a points of OBP for a few more extra-base hits, though the former’s decline in athleticism make it difficult to see him as an impact player, even in his limited role.

White Sox sign Paul DeJong to one-year, $1.75 million deal

Only one position player contributed more negative WAR to his team than Wendle in last season’s second half, and it just so happened to be DeJong. In the first half with the Cardinals, he hit below league average and put up the best defensive numbers of his career, putting him on a three-win pace for the season. With St. Louis well out of contention, they flipped him to the Blue Jays, where he fell into a historic slump. In 13 games north of the border, he went 3-for-44, striking out 41% of the time without drawing a walk or clubbing an extra-base hit. His .068/.068/.068 slash line was good for a -76 wRC+, prompting the Blue Jays to release him after just three weeks.

DeJong then signed on with the Giants, themselves in the middle of a horrific offensive implosion. While he was acquired to take playing time from the aging Brandon Crawford, his struggles in Toronto followed him west, where he hit even worse than Crawford. He wasn’t as historically awful as he was with the Jays, but he still hit just .184 without a walk before the Giants cut him loose as well.

The question going forward remains whether or not DeJong’s abysmal second half was a 31-game anomaly or a true change in his talent level. There are certainly red flags in his under-the-hood numbers; zero walks in 94 plate appearances is concerning, but his chase rate shooting over 54% after leaving St. Louis (compared to a 32% career rate) may be even worse. His power almost completely evaporated as well. A combination of lowered exit velocity with more ground balls than fly balls for the first time in his career led to just one barrel in 60 batted ball events. Steamer’s projections certainly put a good deal of weight into his disastrous run, forecasting a .276 OBP and 76 wRC+, with a strikeout rate a few points above his career norm.

DeJong’s signing won’t drag the White Sox, who scored the second-fewest runs in the majors last year, out of the cellar, but it will at least stabilize their infield situation in the short term. With the arrows pointing down on 40-man infielders José Rodríguez and Lenyn Sosa, the Sox lack immediate plug-and-play options at the six beyond Nicky Lopez. Their clearest option for the future is top prospect Colson Montgomery, our 12th-ranked prospect atop the 55 FV tier. But while Montgomery has looked great in pro ball, he’s far from a perfect prospect, and his poor defense at shortstop may necessitate a future position change, though he’s never played an inning anywhere else in the minors. He also suffered a back injury that limited him to just 84 games in 2023, including a relatively unimpressive showing in the Arizona Fall League. It’s possible that DeJong could hold down the fort for the early season, making way for a midseason debut from Montgomery.

Last week, we looked at a few single-inning relievers who changed hands in the recent flurry of transactions. We’ll wrap up this series with another small reliever signing, as well as looking at two swingman/starter-types who could have a larger role on their new teams in the upcoming season.

Rockies acquire Cal Quantrill from Guardians in trade

With Quantrill coming off a career-worst year and with a looming arbitration salary estimated at $6.6 million, the Guardians decided to part ways with the 28-year-old righty, designating him for assignment to clear up 40-man roster space. The Rockies opted to cut the waiver line, acquiring him in exchange for low-minors catcher Kody Huff. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency has been ongoing for two weeks now, but for the most part, the big dominoes are yet to fall. While teams certainly have their sights set on the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, the early offseason has been defined by smaller moves and signings made around the non-tender and Rule 5 protection deadlines.

The players being exchanged aren’t the most notable members of their respective rosters, yet they’ll still impact the quality of their teams in the upcoming season. We’ll be knocking out many of the more intriguing pitchers who have changed hands in this two-part series. Read the rest of this entry »

Both the Phillies and Diamondbacks entered this Championship Series on a playoff tear, combining for just one loss during their four series wins. But in the battle for the NL pennant, one team’s good fortune would have to end, and so far, Arizona has been unable to deal with the buzzsaw that is Philadelphia’s roster. A day after a close loss headlined by the three home runs Zac Gallen surrendered, the Phillies hit another trio of dingers off the Diamondbacks’ no. 2 starter, Merrill Kelly, and it only continued downhill from there.

While playoff games have been increasingly defined by the reliever parades enabled by an abundance of off days, this game was a battle of two workhorse starters. Aaron Nola and Kelly both rank in the top 10 in baseball in innings over the past two years, and are consistently available to go deep into games. A lot happened in the final three innings on Tuesday, a stretch that exposed the stark difference in the quality of these two bullpens, but we can focus much of our attention on the rotation members dueling from each team.

Nola’s performance this year was uncharacteristically poor by his standards. He’s always possessed some of the best command in baseball, and he throws a hellacious two-planed knuckle curve as his strikeout pitch. But despite that, he had a 101 ERA- and 90 FIP- this season. His strikeout and walk rates were still great, but his home run rate ballooned, as he couldn’t keep his pitches away from the middle of the plate. His pitches in the “heart” zone, as measured by Statcast, were too predictable, costing him seven runs compared to average after dominating that area previously. It meant that his results had a hard ceiling despite having great stuff and avoiding free baserunners. But his six scoreless innings in Game 2 brought his ERA this postseason down to a tiny 0.96; more impressively, he hasn’t allowed a single home run in his three playoff starts. Let’s see how his arsenal shut down Arizona’s bats. Read the rest of this entry »

After splitting the first two games in Houston, the Astros and Twins faced off in Minneapolis. But after Pablo López shut down the Astros’ bats in Game 2, it was Cristian Javier mowing down a lineup this time around, leading his team to a 2–1 series lead with a 9–1 victory over Sonny Gray and Minnesota.

Javier dominated the Twins for five innings, surrendering just one hit and striking out nine. He was wild at times, walking five and hitting a batter and throwing quite a few waste pitches, especially fastballs. He also wasn’t able to get his slider down as much as he would’ve liked, though that didn’t seem to matter for Twins hitters, who came up empty on 13 of their 16 swings against it. Javier’s gameplan when he was on can best be seen in his three matchups against standout rookie Royce Lewis, whose streak of incredible hits with runners on base came to a screeching halt. Read the rest of this entry »

This was an unfamiliar place to be for the Twins, after snapping a playoff losing streak dating back to 2004 and winning their first postseason series since 2002. Generations of Twins players have gone by without experiencing a playoff win with the team, but the current squad, coming off a two-game sweep of Toronto, was rewarded with a matchup against last year’s World Series champions. But while they had opportunities to break the game open, especially in the early innings, they were unable to fully capitalize, dropping the series opener, 6–4.

Houston starter Justin Verlander threw six scoreless frames, but through his first couple innings, it was an open question as to how long he would remain in the game. He allowed three baserunners in the first, throwing just 10 of 23 pitches for strikes. After walking Edouard Julien and allowing a hard-hit single to Jorge Polanco, he served a fastball right down the middle to Royce Lewis — a scary pitch given Lewis’ string of excellent performances, especially in the Wild Card series. But he swung over the pitch and tapped it to shortstop for the tailor-made double play. Verlander allowed another walk, but he escaped the inning with a groundout.

His second inning went similarly, as he erased singles by Carlos Correa and Ryan Jeffers with another 6-4-3 twin killing, this time off the bat of Michael A. Taylor. Julien doubled to start the third, the sixth Twins baserunner through 10 batters, but he was tagged out in a baserunning blunder. Verlander would allow just two more men to reach over the next four innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite being second and third in record among AL clubs and sporting the top two run differentials in the Junior Circuit, the Rays and Rangers will meet in the wild card round as the fourth and fifth seeds, respectively. Tampa Bay secured the top wild card spot after losing a close division race, finishing just two games behind the first-place Orioles, the only 100-win team in the AL, and will play host to the Rangers. Their 90 wins tied them with the Astros for first place in the West, but they lost the division crown via tiebreaker under the new rules that sent Game 163 into extinction. These two squads may be a bit above the caliber of the average wild card series, but only one will be on a flight to Baltimore this weekend for the ALDS. Read the rest of this entry »

In many aspects of the game, Harold Ramírez simply doesn’t look like a big leaguer. His 47.5% chase rate ranks 193rd out of the 194 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances this year. Among that same population, his line drive rate ranks in the 14th percentile. Ramírez hits twice as many groundballs as fly balls and has homered in just 2% of his plate appearances, worse than league average. As a DH, he doesn’t provide value with his glove, and in his first two full seasons with Miami and Cleveland, he was worse than replacement level.

Now let’s talk about how good Ramírez is. He has some of the best raw power in the game, once hitting a ball 114.8 mph, something the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and José Ramírez have never accomplished. He avoids strikeouts at an above-average clip and can make the most of the balls he puts in play as a 64th-percentile runner. Ramírez is one of just three hitters with a batting average above .300 in each of the past two seasons, along with Freeman and Luis Arraez. Read the rest of this entry »

Freddie Freeman has dominated the sport for over a decade. It feels impossible to summarize his well-rounded skillset with any single plate appearance, but I think I’ve found one. Last Monday, in the ninth inning of a Dodgers loss against San Diego, Freeman stepped into the box against Josh Hader and in the span of eight pitches demonstrated what makes his talent so special. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Jay Jaffe wrote about the NL Cy Young race and its lack of a clear frontrunner. What struck me about the NL crop of pitchers is that each top candidate has excelled in a specific category that could cater to a certain class of voters. Do you heavily weigh peripheral stats like FIP and strikeouts? If so, you’d probably vote for Spencer Strider, who leads the NL in K/9, K%, K-BB%, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, swinging-strike rate, and CSW%. If you value run prevention over all else, then Justin Steele and Blake Snell, the only big league pitchers with ERAs below 2.50, are your guys. Voters who value both excellence and volume may choose to select Logan Webb or Zac Gallen, who lead the way in innings pitched with solid ERA and FIP numbers. While they (along with NL WAR leader Zack Wheeler) are all close in pitching prowess, odds are I could guess who would come first on your ballot if you gave me a pie chart of your perceived importance of ERA, peripherals, and volume.

The AL race is a bit different. There are deserving candidates who are strong in individual areas of the game, but none stand out as elite compared to top pitchers in previous seasons. Consider Gerrit Cole, whose 187 innings and 2.79 ERA (66 ERA-) pace the AL. He’s on pace to reach the 200-inning threshold for the sixth time in his career, but just last year, 19 qualified hurlers averaged at least as many innings per start as Cole, including several guys who came nowhere near award contention. And while his 66 ERA- is impressive, it’s the worst AL-leading ERA- since 2016, when Rick Porcello led with a mark of 71 as one of the more underwhelming Cy Young winners in recent memory. Before that, you have to go back to 2007 to find a worse top of the class in the junior circuit.

Even though Cole doesn’t compare to premier seasons of yesteryear (including many of his own), he’s still locked in as a top candidate this year and the likely frontrunner. He hasn’t had a better single-season ERA since his legendary 2019 campaign, when he struck out 326 batters and lost a narrow Cy Young race to Justin Verlander. But he’s kept runs off the board despite fewer strikeouts than is custom for him. For the first time since discovering the power of his elevated fastball, Cole has struck out fewer than 30% of batters faced. And while no ERA estimator has him below 3.30, the batted ball data suggests that may not be a fluke. His barrel rate, which has sat between the 15th and 25th percentile over the past three years, has been almost exactly average in 2023, along with his hard-hit rate allowed. Because of this, he’s kept a greater share of fly balls in the yard of any season since his days in Pittsburgh. Read the rest of this entry »