Last Friday and Saturday, the Cincinnati Reds routed the Pittsburgh Pirates in back-to-back games by a combined score of 15-4. The Reds were 74-80 when the Pirates came to town for the three-game series, and their chances of finishing above .500 and matching last year’s 82-80 record were slim, but they kept those hopes alive over those two games.

Then Paul Skenes took the mound. On Sunday, the Pirates pulled off a shutout on the back of five brilliant innings from their first-year ace. It was the third time the rookie phenom has dominated the Reds this season. Cincinnati managed just three hits and one walk all afternoon, striking out 13 times (nine against Skenes). After Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, and Tyler Stephenson went down one-two-three in the bottom of the ninth, the Reds fell to 76-81, assuring they would finish with a worse record than they did last season.

Around 6:30 that evening, president of baseball operations Nick Krall informed manager David Bell that his services were no longer required. Bench coach Freddie Benavides was named the interim manager for the five games remaining in the 2024 season. This was Bell’s sixth season as the Reds manager. He also managed in their minor league system from 2009-12, giving him just under 10 years of service with the club. Although he’s the only member of the Bell family’s three generations of major leaguers to never play for the Reds — his grandfather, father, and brother all suited up for the family team – David is the Bell who spent the most time with the club. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, a veteran right-hander was designated for assignment. Not long ago, this pitcher was one of the best relievers in baseball. In fact, through the first half of the 2024 season, he maintained an ERA and FIP under 3.00. Yet, over the past couple of months, he has produced some of the ugliest numbers of any reliever in the sport. Following what was arguably the single worst appearance of his career, his team – the eighth he’s been a part of in his big league career – decided enough was enough. His club added him with the intention that he would play a key role in the postseason, but he quickly fell so far down the bullpen depth chart that he dropped off the roster entirely.

Oh, and no, it’s not the guy you’re thinking of. I’m talking about Dylan Floro. Less than two months after scooping him up at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks DFA’d Floro on Sunday. They released him two days later. His 2024 season almost certainly has come to an early close.

Floro isn’t Craig Kimbrel. He’s never been the Rolaids Reliever of the Year, nor the DHL Delivery Man of the Year, nor the GameStop Late-Game Stopper of the Year, though admittedly, I made the last one up. Floro has been cut from his team’s 40-man roster more times (six) than Kimbrel has been left off the All-Star roster (five). You can tell as much from the headshots on their player pages. Floro looks utterly forlorn, resigned to play another meaningless season of Major League Baseball. Kimbrel is smiling like he thinks he’s pulling off that haircut. That’s the kind of confidence that only comes with nine All-Star appearances: Read the rest of this entry »

One of my favorite pieces I wrote last year was about players whose baserunning value was at odds with their footspeed: specifically, those who were squandering the God-given advantage of their legs. A year later, I have a new crop of baserunners to write about. We also have an updated version of our metric for calculating baserunning value (BsR) in 2024. So, I decided the topic was worth a fresh look.

I took a pretty subjective approach when I wrote about this last season. I went through the sprint speed leaderboard on Baseball Savant, compared it to our BsR leaderboard, and scanned for players who stood out. This time around, I decided I could be a little more scientific. I made a spreadsheet featuring every player who has taken at least 300 plate appearances and recorded at least 100 competitive runs this season – nice, round, arbitrary cut-off points to limit small sample size randomness. Then, I determined the percentile value for each player’s BsR, as well as the percentile value for two different measurements of speed: sprint speed and the time it takes to run from home plate to first base (HP to 1B).

As I compared the results, three names immediately caught my eye: Jo Adell, Jeff McNeil, and Mickey Moniak. Adell has, by far, the widest gap between his sprint speed percentile (86th) and BsR percentile (9th). That’s approximately a 77% difference; no other runner has a gap bigger than 60%. Meanwhile, McNeil boasts the widest gap between his HP to 1B percentile (86th) and BsR percentile (19th). Finally, Moniak ranks among the top 20% in both sprint speed and HP to 1B, yet he ranks among the bottom third in BsR. He has the third-largest gap between his sprint speed (84th) and BsR (32nd) and the fifth-largest gap between his HP to 1B (83rd) and BsR. He is the only player with one of the five largest gaps in both areas: Read the rest of this entry »

One thing I love about writing for FanGraphs is getting the chance to cover players who otherwise would receive little (if any) attention from sources outside of their own team’s market. On this little part of the internet, pieces about the Joe Blows of the league aren’t just allowed, they’re encouraged. Yet, almost 10 years ago, the great Jeff Sullivan hemmed and hawed before writing about one such player:

For a while, I’ve personally been interested in Tyler Clippard. I’ve considered on several occasions writing about him, and about him specifically, but on every one of those occasions, I’ve talked myself out of it, because it just never seemed relevant enough. Generally, people haven’t woken up and thought, today I’d like to read in depth about Tyler Clippard.

I get what Jeff meant. I felt the same way before I wrote this article, hence this introduction. Still, it’s a funny train of thought coming from a writer who was so well known for making his readers care about topics they didn’t realize they would have cared about until they started reading. There was no need for Jeff to justify the subject matter of his article, least of all at FanGraphs. It’s also funny because Clippard was coming off an All-Star season in which he pitched to a 2.18 ERA and 1.5 WAR in 75 games. He had been one of the best relievers in baseball for the past five years. Clearly, the landscape of baseball blogging has changed over the past decade; a player with Clippard’s resume wouldn’t even qualify as a niche topic anymore. Indeed, Clippard might as well be a Shohei Ohtani-level mega-star compared to the reliever I’m writing about today. Read the rest of this entry »

Entering Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays had stolen 35 bases in their previous 15 games. Even in this new age of increased stolen base rates, that’s impressive. Only one other team has swiped at least 35 bags over 15 games since the implementation of the new rules: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2023. Before that, only one other team had accomplished the feat in the 21st century: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2009. The last time a team other than the Rays stole so many bases in so few games was before the Rays franchise even existed; in 1992, the Milwaukee Brewers enjoyed two distinct 15-game stretches with at least 35 stolen bags.

Perhaps 35 and 15 aren’t round enough numbers for you. In that case, you’ll be happy to hear that the 2024 Rays are the very first team in the pitch clock/disengagement limit/bigger bases era to steal 50 bases in any 25-game span; they pulled it off between July 21 and August 18 (and again from July 22 to August 19, and July 23 to August 20). The last team to achieve this particular feat was — you guessed it — the 2009 Rays, and before them, the 1992 Brewers. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re speaking with someone from Toronto who doesn’t follow baseball, they can probably tell you two things about the Blue Jays. The first is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the best player on the team. The second is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sucks.

The first point is pretty accurate, and it’s absolutely true this season — more on that in a moment. The second point is categorically false, but alas, such is the curse of superstardom. The player who has his face on posters all around the city is going to get plenty of credit when things go right, but he’s also going to shoulder an excessive amount of criticism when things go wrong. When you’re the guy starring in the Uncrustables ads, fans expect a crust-free performance on the field, too.

Guerrero made a name for himself in 2021, which was no easy task considering the man with whom he shares his name. Yet, with 48 home runs, 111 RBI, and a runner-up finish for AL MVP, Guerrero gave the average Torontonian a reason to talk about baseball for the first time since José Bautista was punched in the face. Then, Guerrero spent the next two years corroding his golden reputation. To be clear, no one who knows what they’re talking about ever thought he was a bad ballplayer — heck, he set a new record for the highest salary ever awarded in an arbitration hearing this past offseason — but his performance certainly went downhill. If all you were comparing him to was the best version of himself (like that motivational poster in your gym always tells you to do), he really was pretty disappointing last year: Read the rest of this entry »

I typed the command “high-leverage reliever fangraphs.com” into Google over the weekend and set the search range to the past month. About 130 results came up. Next, I ran the same search, except with “low-leverage reliever” instead. This time, Google told me there weren’t “many great matches” for my search and suggested I try “using words that might appear” on the page I was looking for. Message received, Google. Apparently, our coverage here at FanGraphs is biased toward players who actually hold meaningful influence over the outcomes of games. That just won’t do!

All joking aside, there’s a very simple reason we don’t write about low-leverage relievers that often. Low-leverage relievers don’t really exist, at least not in the same way high-leverage relievers do. For one thing, relievers are naturally going to enter games in higher-leverage spots because pitchers are more likely to exit games in higher-leverage spots. The average leverage index when entering games (gmLI) for relievers this season is 1.12; that’s 0.12 higher than a perfectly average-leverage spot. Moreover, the low-leverage relief opportunities do exist are more likely to go to the revolving door of replacement-level arms at the bottom of each team’s bullpen depth chart, rather than an established pitcher whose full-time job is that of a low-leverage reliever. Consider that the median gmLI for active, qualified relievers this season is 1.21. By design, most relievers who stick around long enough for you to know their names are going to be pitching in higher-leverage spots. Yet, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any full-time low-leverage relievers. If anything, it just means those guys are more unusual – and therefore pretty interesting.

With all that in mind, I set out to find a low-leverage arm worth writing about. The qualified reliever (0.3 IP per team game) with the lowest gmLI this season is Thyago Vieira, with a 0.29 gmLI. That would be the lowest gmLI in a season for a qualified reliever since rookie Johan Santana’s record-setting 0.27 gmLI in 2000. Yet, with all due respect to Vieira, he’s hardly the most fun part of that fun fact. (Although, if Vieira goes on to win two Cy Young awards and a Triple Crown I will gladly eat my words.) The 31-year-old Vieira perfectly fits the mold of the replacement-level/revolving-door reliever I described above. He has played for the Brewers, Orioles, and Diamondbacks this season, and he’s currently on the restricted list at Triple-A in the D-backs organization. It seems highly unlikely he’ll get back to majors and pitch the necessary 10.2 innings he would need to remain qualified at season’s end. And, unfortunately, his 0.29 gmLI isn’t nearly as noteworthy without the “qualified” qualifier. If I lower the threshold to 30 innings pitched, 25 other relievers have had a lower-leverage season on record (since 1974).

Funnily enough, however, it was when I looked just beyond the qualified names that I struck gold iron (help me out here metal enthusiasts, is that the right metaphor?) in my search for low-leverage relievers. Tanner Rainey of the Nationals is in the midst of what could be the lowest-leverage relief season of all time: Read the rest of this entry »

As I sit down to write today, the Mets rank fourth in the majors with a 113 wRC+ and sixth with 19.7 position player WAR. They’re outperforming their star-studded division rivals in Philadelphia and Atlanta in both metrics. If you had told me on Opening Day that the Mets would have a higher wRC+ than the Braves after the trade deadline, I’d have scoffed at your ignorance. If you had told me at the end of May that the Mets’ lineup would surpass that of the Phillies in WAR within eight weeks, I’d have laughed in your face. After all, the Mets ranked 13th in wRC+ (99) and 16th in position player WAR (6.2) two months into the season. At that time, they had a 24-33 record to show for their efforts, and they were trending toward a second straight midsummer sell-off.

Yet, since the first of June, the Mets rank first in the majors with a 130 wRC+ and second with 13.6 position player WAR. They have gone 33-18 in that span, the best record in baseball. Not only did David Stearns hold onto potential trade chips Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Luis Severino at the deadline, but he made several additions, bringing Jesse Winker, Paul Blackburn, Phil Maton, Huascar Brazoban, and Ryne Stanek into the fold. According to ZiPS, the Mets increased their playoff odds by 8.2% at the deadline. And according to our Playoff Odds page, the Mets increased their postseason chances by 36.0% between May 31 and today. They are one of only two teams whose odds have risen from below 10% to above 50% at any point this season. The other is the Royals, who were at 9.9% for about 24 hours at the end of March: Read the rest of this entry »

Pitching wins championships. It’s a cliché, but it’s a cliché for a reason: It’s true, and everyone knows it. It’s why the best available pitchers can cost such a premium at the trade deadline. So, what if there were a way for a team to improve its pitching staff without trading for a pitcher? It’s easier said than done, but the Red Sox and Rangers are hoping they pulled it off after acquiring new catchers to help them over the final two months of the season.

On Saturday evening, the Blue Jays sent long-time backstop Danny Jansen to the Red Sox in exchange for infield prospects Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino and right-handed pitching prospect Gilberto Batista. A little over 24 hours later, the Tigers shipped off Carson Kelly to the Rangers for a pair of minor leaguers: catcher/first baseman Liam Hicks and right-hander Tyler Owens. Read the rest of this entry »

He may not be playing in Arlington tonight, but Christian Walker just wrapped up an All-Star level first half. The Diamondbacks first baseman came into the All-Star break ranked third in the National League with 22 home runs, fifth with 66 RBI, and among the top 15 qualified batters in wOBA (.357), xwOBA (.365), and wRC+ (131). His 10 OAA are third-most among NL fielders, while his 7 DRS, 4.1 UZR, and 8 FRV are all the top marks at his position. Thanks to his spectacular defensive performance, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the only qualified NL first baseman who has provided positive defensive value at first despite the hefty positional adjustment. On top of that, he has played in all 97 of Arizona’s games so far, putting him on pace for more than 700 plate appearances this season.

Add his offense, defense, and durability together and you get 2.9 WAR, which places Walker in the top 15 among NL position players and top 30 in the majors. Considering that 46 position players were invited to the Midsummer Classic this year, it’s hard to deny that Walker is having an All-Star worthy season. At the same time, it’s also hard to get too fired to up about his “snub.” Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman have put up superior offensive numbers and WAR totals, rightfully earning the two guaranteed spots for first basemen on the NL roster. In addition, three NL players with more WAR and arguably even stronger All-Star cases than Walker were also left off the squad: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Willy Adames. Finally, this isn’t even the most disappointing time Walker has missed out on a trip back to Globe Life Field within the past 10 months. Still, it’s a shame that Walker’s excellent first half will go unrewarded. At 33 years old, the late bloomer is putting together the best season of his career at the plate and in the field. Surely, that deserves to be celebrated. Read the rest of this entry »