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Effectively Wild Episode 1758: Desperately Sweaty Energy

EWFI

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Jon Tayler of FanGraphs banter about the Boston Red Sox’s victory over the Tampa Bay Rays to advance to the American League Championship Series, including Jon’s experience of the series as a Red Sox fan, Alex Cora’s managerial style, Boston’s particular brand of chaos ball, when Jon knew Garrett Whitlock was worth watching, Enrique Hernández’s incredible playoff run, the rule that robbed Tampa of a run in Game 3, and what Jon expects from Wander Franco in the years to come. Then they catch up on the Braves/Brewers and Dodgers/Giants action, look ahead to the Championship Series, re-predict the rest of the postseason, and analyze an ill-advised playoff promo. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs White Sox/Astros ALDS Game 4 Chat

2:00
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone! Ben Clemens and I are here to provide ‘insight’, take your questions and provide some entertainment as we all watch game 4 of the ALDS between the White Sox and the Astros. Thanks so much for joining us. We’ve had a lot of fun doing these and it’s always great to spend time with our fantastic audience.

2:00
Ben Clemens: Kevin on my sheet it says you’re here for insight and me for whimsy

2:01
Kevin Goldstein: Hmmmmm, I have it reversed. I’ll call Meg.

2:01
Ben Clemens: Though it might be hard to match David Ortiz trying and failing to pour a briefcase full of money onto Frank Thomas

2:01
Ben Clemens: when it comes to forced whimsy

2:01
darkness88: A few days ago I leadned about the rings rule at Tropicana Field. Any other quirky ground rules you might know?

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Effectively Wild Episode 1757: Farewell to Rhubarb

EWFI

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Mike Ferrin of MLB Network Radio discuss his recent trip to Monument Valley before recapping the weekend’s ALDS and NLDS action and looking ahead to what might come next, including thoughts on the Giants’ approach to platooning, Cody Bellinger‘s season-long slump, AJ Pollock‘s past postseason woes, the Brewers offense, Eduardo Escobar, Milwaukee’s bullpen, Atlanta’s starters, Houston’s bats, Craig Kimbrel‘s role, Wander Franco, the Rays’ young starters, J.D. Martinez and Kiké Hernández providing thump in Boston’s lineup, and Alex Cora’s strategy to contain Tampa’s offense. Then Meg and Mike listener emails on spitting, the strike zone, a robo ump compromise, a creative proposal to score series rather than games, and rookies adjusting to the big leagues. Plus, a Statblast/Meet a Major Leaguer combo on player debuts versus and for the Kansas City Royals. Read the rest of this entry »


On Ghosts and Pickpockets: How the Dodgers Swiped NLDS Game 2

Baseball lends itself to stories, October baseball perhaps most of all. During the regular season, a team’s narrative can unfurl slowly. The postseason, by contrast, is marked by the frantic crowning of heroes and chokers. Subplots abound, and the identity of the game’s central character isn’t always clear until the late innings.

After losing to the San Francisco Giants, 4–0, in Game 1 of the NLDS, the Los Angeles Dodgers hoped to even the series on Saturday. The Giants, for their part, were looking to push the Dodgers to the edge of elimination. In the process, the two teams told three different tales.

The Hero’s Journey, Deferred
If you had told the Giants in June that Kevin Gausman would be starting Game 2 of the NLDS, they would have been thrilled. Heading into the All-Star break, he had posted a 1.73 ERA and a 2.57 FIP, led by a four-seam fastball that finishes batters high and a devilish splitter that wipes them out low and is among the best in the game.

But after a scintillating first half, Gausman faltered. He posted a 4.42 ERA and a 3.65 FIP. His splitter had less sink. He tinkered with his pitch mix, toying with throwing more sliders and what Pitch Info classifies as changeups, though not to particularly great effect. The final month of the season suggested a course correction, though not quite a return to form, an assessment seemingly shared by Gabe Kapler when he tapped Logan Webb to start Game 1 of the series.

And for the first few innings of Saturday’s game, you could see why. Gausman threw first-pitch balls to three of the first four batters he faced. In the second, Chris Taylor doubled. After a Cody Bellinger strikeout, Gausman fell behind AJ Pollock, 2–0, and Kapler opted to put him on intentionally to get to Julio Urías. But the pitcher and his .203 season average slapped a hanging splitter for a single, scoring Taylor; Mookie Betts followed with an RBI single of his own (his third hit this series and fifth this postseason).

It looked like Gausman’s night might end half an inning later, as Kapler almost pinch hit Tommy La Stella for his starter when San Francisco threatened after a Wilmer Flores walk and a Brandon Crawford single. Ultimately, though, he thought better of it when a Donovan Solano sacrifice fly plated a run and pushed the Giants to two outs, and Gausman rewarded that faith by settling down and retiring the next nine batters he faced. It seemed like it might be the sort of start that, provided the Giants rallied, would be described as gritty — not dominant, but necessary in the march to the World Series.

Then the sixth inning hit.

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FanGraphs Dodgers/Giants NLDS Game 1 Chat

9:30
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Let’s get weird.

9:31
Kevin Goldstein: Thanks so much for joining us tonight. We love doing these, and they’ve been a big hit this week.

9:31
Luke Hooper: Now that Young Sheldon is over, the real fun can begin!

9:31
Nicklaus Gaut: Welcome, everyone!

9:32
Kevin Goldstein: I’m here with Luke Hooper and we will be watching Dodgers/Giants and the rest of this wacky game in Tampa. We will provide insight, hopefully some laughs, weird polls, and of course, you can ask us . . . well anything!

9:32
Nicklaus Gaut: I’m all jacked up on expresso and am ready to start.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1756: Ichabod Crane Comes to Bat

EWFI

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Eric Longenhagen banter about Walker Buehler’s unusual approach to opening beers and their own past dental emergencies before recapping the AL Wild Card game. They consider what went wrong for the Yankees, and assess the Red Sox’s good starters, potent lineup, and shaky defense, as well as Nick Pivetta and Garrett Richards. Next they shift to the Red Sox/Rays ALDS matchup and consider the state of Tampa Bay’s pitching, the Rays’ talented hitters, and whether playoff experience (or a lack thereof) will matter for Tampa’s young starters. After that it’s on to the Astros and White Sox, featuring an embarrassment of good hitters including Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert, plus Houston’s talented pitching and Chicago’s dominant bullpen. Then they wrap up with thoughts on the NL Wild Card and play a game of stumpo with Arizona Fall League rosters. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs White Sox/Astros ALDS Game 1 Chat

4:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to our AL Division Series Game 1 chat! We’ll be starting things off shortly

4:02
Jon Becker: Hi everybody! So glad you could be here with us for some afternoon ball.

4:02
Luke Hooper: What’s up! Excited for a good day of ball to get started.

4:06
Avatar David Laurila: Greetings, all.

4:08
Luke Hooper: ZiPS has this as the closest series of the opening round. 50.1 to 49.9 in favor of Houston.

4:08
Avatar David Laurila: Not worth a poll, but today’s Lance matchup begs a question: Who is the best-ever baseball Lance? Berkman and Parrish are presumably the top candidates?

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FanGraphs 2021 NL Wild Card Chat

8:00
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone! Thanks so much for joining us for another Wild Card chat. We hope you had fun yesterday and we can’t believe you came back tonight.

8:01
Kevin Goldstein: I’m here with Nickalus Gaut, and Eric Longenhagen will be here soon as he’s stuck in traffic.

8:02
Kevin Goldstein:

Who are you rooting for?

Cardinals (34.9% | 73 votes)
 
Dodgers (29.6% | 62 votes)
 
Good Baseball (28.2% | 59 votes)
 
I’m just here to see Steven Souza play (7.1% | 15 votes)
 

Total Votes: 209
8:03
Farhandrew Zaidman: With the benefit of hindsight, Pollock seems like a good contract, yeah? Dodger fans were decidedly split on him pre-2020.

8:03
Kevin Goldstein: Hard to say no.

8:04
Nicklaus Gaut: Thanks for coming by everyone! I’m coming live to you from the epicenter of Cardinals devil magic…David Eckstein has sacrificed a rooster and I’ve sacrificed my body by eating Imo’s Pizza and White Castle all day, so the CDM is cooking. Here’s to a great game!

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FanGraphs 2021 AL Wild Card Chat

8:00
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone! Thanks for coming. I’m here with the FanGraphs Midwest crew, as Jon Becker and I are in Illinois and Dan Szymborski is in Ohio, but we’re thrilled to join you for the drama that is taking place on the East Coast. We will talk about the game, answer your questions, and who knows what kind of tangents. First a foremost, we’re happy you’re here.

8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: G’evening!

8:01
Jon Becker: Hello everybody! Very happy to be here with my two colleagues and all of you lovely chatters for my first FanGraphs chat!

8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hopefully chatting with me won’t be too traumatic!

8:01
Kevin Goldstein: Everyone be nice to Jon.

8:02
Jimmie Foxxalorian: pins and needles all day in anticipation of this game! Sox will win, 5-4 in bottom of 9th. That is all.

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Here’s Who’s Going to (Maybe) Win the 2021 World Series

We may have been robbed of tiebreaker madness, but this season’s playoffs still promise to deliver great matchups, with division rivalries, electric starters, potent bats, and a bit of devil magic thrown in for good measure. And though the field boasts a number of dominant teams that seem poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 28 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs answered the call.

Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s complete forecast. Happy playoffs! Read the rest of this entry »