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The Rockies Should Play Corey Dickerson at First Base

The Rockies officially signed Gerardo Parra the other day. It was an odd move, because it seemingly killed the team’s leverage to deal one of their existing outfielders, which is something that has been rumored to be in the offing all offseason. While that might be true, it doesn’t have to be true, because there is an easy solution to the logjam — playing Corey Dickerson at first base.

The Rockies have been searching for a first baseman for a couple of years. Over the past three seasons, the team has produced just 1.4 WAR at the position — 22nd in the majors overall. When Todd Helton retired, they went the veteran route and signed Justin Morneau. He helped improve the team’s performance at first base to 15th overall over the past two seasons, which is better but not spectacular. Morneau hit well when he played — a .316 average and 3.0 WAR aren’t too shabby — but he only logged 52% of the team’s plate appearances at first base the last two years. And now he’s gone.

In his wake, there are currently two main candidates for first base playing time, Ben Paulsen and Mark Reynolds. The Rockies quietly signed Reynolds to a $2.6 million contract last month. Reynolds has been around forever, but is just entering his age-32 season. If you’re wondering why a 32-year-old first baseman nets less than $3 million, well the answer is because he isn’t very good. Reynolds has been worth 0.3 WAR or less in four of the last five seasons, and in two of those five seasons — including last season — his value dipped below replacement level. He loses value in both defense and base running, which would be fine if he were a true masher. He isn’t. In fact, his wRC+ has topped 100 in any of the last three seasons, nor has his slugging percentage topped .400 in them.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/19/16

9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! OK let’s do this thing.

9:02
The Dude of NY: Why was George Steinbrenner villainized for spending so much money on free agents, while Mike Ilitch is praised for it? Is it because the Tigers are lost money last year, but Ilitch is spending anyway?

9:02
Paul Swydan: Probably because Steinbrenner spent his money on bonafide stars and did it with a sneer on his face, while Ilitch spends his money on second tier guys and mostly stays in the shadows.

9:03
Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Steinbrenner issue was how much he out spent people. The Yankees are still outspending the Tigers.

9:03
Paul Swydan: That too.

9:03
Codes: What does Blanton in relief look like in 2016 for the Dodgers?

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The Best of FanGraphs: January 11-15, 2016

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/12/16

9:01
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this! I’m very disappointed in those of you who claim you don’t listen to Kanye West, btw.

9:01
Bad Hermit: Is this the State of the Union live chat?

9:01
Paul Swydan: No, no it is not.

9:02
Jeff Zimmerman: No … hell no.

9:02
Paul Swydan: We’re what’s known as the counterprogramming.

9:02
Paul Swydan: And I guess I’m a bad American, because I’m watching the Celtics game.

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The Best of FanGraphs: January 4-8, 2016

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Is Vladimir Guerrero a Hall of Famer?

When I saw that only two players had been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame earlier this week, my thoughts immediately turned to future years. With only two deserving candidates going in, there was still going to be a log jam. How would that impact the players who are coming onto the ballot next year? There are three who have a real case for being in the Hall of Fame: Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Ivan Rodriguez.

Ramirez and Rodriguez seem pretty easy to peg. Ramirez — one of the great right-handed hitters to ever grace this planet, but also a player with several off-field transgressions, including two failed performance enhancing drug tests — seems likely to get a middling level of support, similar to Mark McGwire. Enough to remain comfortably on the ballot, but not enough to be near induction. Rodriguez will vault firmly into the middle of the pack at the very least, and stands a strong shot at induction on his first go-round. He has 13 Gold Gloves, the most of any catcher, and while he had PED whispers, so did Mike Piazza, and he just got in. The tide seems to be turning on the “Steroids Era.”

Guerrero, however, is a total wild card. At least to me. I could see him vaulting into strong induction contention, or I could see him scraping the bottom of the barrel. It’s hard to get a good read on his candidacy.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/5/16

5:29
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I accidentally started the chat, but as you probably know, we won’t truly be starting until 9 pm ET. So, we’ll see you soon, for the first chat of the year!

9:01
Guest: HNY

9:01
Paul Swydan: Happy New Year to you all as well!

9:01
Carr: did Jeter dope to prolong his career – speculations only

9:01
Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt it.

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: No

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/22/15

9:01
Paul Swydan: HI EVERYBODY!

9:01
Paul Swydan: It’s the last chat of the year, and I’m flying solo because Jeff has a Rotoworld mock draft. Let’s get to it!

9:01
ben: Betts or buxton for rest of career

9:03
Paul Swydan: Definitely Betts. He’s only a year older than Buxton, and already has two productive seasons under his belt. I’m not really bullish on Buxton in general.

9:03
Mets Fan: How excited should I be about Alejandro de Aza?

9:04
Paul Swydan: Not very. It’s a move that doesn’t have much potential for failure – which makes it similar to the Walker and Cabrera moves – but like those moves, it doesn’t have a big chance for success.

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The Best of FanGraphs: December 14-18, 2015

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/15/15

9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! OK, let’s do this!

9:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:00
Billy Corman: There is a lot of substance behind the splash the Cubs have made this offseason. Cardinals seem to be missing out (I wouldn’t say they’re missing Cueto, Bob. *laughs*). All I read was the new TV contract money and $200mm for Heyward. Who’s the dance partner they take to the playoffs, Chris Davis?http://tpj.videonativesltd.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/office-space-the-bobs.png

9:01
Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will end up with one of Gordon, Cespedes or Upton

9:02
Paul Swydan: Here’s the thing. They don’t NEED any one player. But I think they’d be wise to keep upgrading their bullpen.

9:02
Paul Swydan: VEEP!

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