FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/19/16

by Paul Swydan

January 19, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! OK let’s do this thing.

9:02	The Dude of NY: Why was George Steinbrenner villainized for spending so much money on free agents, while Mike Ilitch is praised for it? Is it because the Tigers are lost money last year, but Ilitch is spending anyway?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Probably because Steinbrenner spent his money on bonafide stars and did it with a sneer on his face, while Ilitch spends his money on second tier guys and mostly stays in the shadows.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Steinbrenner issue was how much he out spent people. The Yankees are still outspending the Tigers.

9:03	Paul Swydan: That too.

9:03	Codes: What does Blanton in relief look like in 2016 for the Dodgers?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: On the DL? Tough to really tell

9:04	Paul Swydan: Middle reliever. Probably pretty decent. His stuff played up in the pen last year.

9:04	Raindog: I don’t really understand why Austin Jackson is thought of so lowly / going to get paid so little. He put up 2.3 WAR last year and is only going to be 29 years old. Shouldn’t that be considered a solidly useful player, not a bargain-bin buy-low candidate?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Absolutely. But since the perception is that he trended down, he has to wait in line. Cespedes still has to sign, and he may have to outwait Fowler as well, though Fowler’s draft pick comp brings that a little closer to even.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Teams wait to see if they can get the top talent and then settle. Jackson is not as good as other OF still available

9:05	AKA22: Braves keep showing up as suitors for the big OF bats before dropping out. Think they agree just trying to bluff the fans into thinking they want to win games, or is there a chance they surprise people?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Small chance for them getting bats right now, especially giving up draft picks for them

9:07	Paul Swydan: If I’m being honest, I’d say there’s probably a little bluffing for the fans in there, but also on guys like Heyward and Upton, they will still be productive when the Braves get good again.

9:07	Russ: Two Part Question! 1. What percent chance do you give Appel starting the season in the rotation, assuming he has a decent spring? 2. What percent chance do you give Jonathan Schoop ending the season as a top 5 offensive second basemen, assuming he plays 140-160 games?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I give Schoop better chances than Appel, and I would only put Schoop’s chances at around 20%.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: 1. 5% 2. 35%

9:08	Martin: In a 12 team h2h with Avg, HR, R, RBI and OPS, is Prince Fielder worth keeping at $25?

9:08	Paul Swydan: STANDARD REMINDER: If you’re going to ask us dollar-based questions, we need to know your salary cap.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: That sounds about right …. with $260 cap

9:09	Paul Swydan: For instance, my home league played with a floating cap that maxed out at $229. My Ottoneu league cap starts at $400. I would recommend Fielder at that price for the latter but not the former.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I mean, I guess we don’t NEED to know, but it definitely helps us give you a better answer.

9:10	Minty: OBP dynasty, Schwarber or Corey Seager? I question if Schwarber will ever catch or if Seager stays at SS.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Well, they’ll both have that eligibility this year. I think Seager holds on to his prime eligibility longer, so I’d say him.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Seagar, I think he has the better bat and glove

9:11	James: The Rangers have reportedly started extension talks with Adrian Beltre. How comfortable would you be giving Beltre a 2/40 extension which has been thrown about?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I’d be fine with that.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: That’s OK

9:12	GSon: Frankie Lindor had a tremendous debut in the Major Leagues, surpassing even the eventual AL ROY in numbers/WAR..etc.. Do you see a continuation in 2016?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think he can continue to be that good yes, because I think the defensive value over a full season should offset any potential offensive decline.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I expect huge regression especially with the power

9:13	Ryan: Is there any way Fangraphs could publish the standard deviations for its projected standings? I think it would be fascinating to see which teams’ situations are most unpredictable/uncertain.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I’m honestly not sure if we can or can’t, but I will try to remember to ask about it.

9:14	Sho Darvish: Twenty bucks says Yu is innocent. You want any of that action?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: When I have looked at this previously, the ranking can have 10 SD. Just too many variables to get worked up about like injuries and trades

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure to what this is referring. RE: Yu. Care to elaborate?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Who cares?

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: His brother was gambling one baseball, Paul.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Oh I see it. Gambling, action, I see what you did there.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Let’s hope he’s innocent.

9:15	Sam: Your favorite book regarding fantasy baseball(trading bases, winning fantasy baseball, fantasyland etc etc)?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I honestly can’t say that I’ve ever read a whole book about fantasy baseball, but if I was going to it’d be Mike Podhorzer’s “Projecting X.” I tend more toward fantasy magazines or services, like Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball Magazine.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure I have a favorite, I probably personally reference Winning Fantasy Baseball the most

9:17	Paul Swydan: Oh, also, The Fantasy Fix does a good PDF for preseason leagues.

9:17	JWK: What are some players that aren’t really good, but you’re attached to?

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Lindy’s had an awesome drafter this year

9:18	Paul Swydan: Guys that I liked on the Rockies when I worked there – Franklin Morales and Jeff Baker stick out. Ubaldo Jimenez, depending on how you feel about his qualities as a player. Also Daniel Nava, Scott Atchison.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I love me some AAAA players. Dean Anna. Jose Martinez. Brake Treinen.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: and Bartolo Colon

9:19	JWK: Wilin Rosario is going to the KBO, will he ever have another AB in the majors?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I want to believe that he will. It seemed like he washed out of the league far too quickly.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, hard to tell

9:19	Rick: What is the most unreasonable fan-based projection so far? (My vote for now goes for Panik at 5.5 WAR)

9:20	Paul Swydan: I haven’t really explored them yet, but I certainly wouldn’t be pegging Panik for a 5.5 WAR season.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t looked at them yet.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Perusing them real quick right now, Addison Russell at 5.2 WAR strikes me as overly optimistic.

9:21	Paul Swydan: As does Kevin Gausman at 4.1 WAR.

9:22	Zigs: What are your thoughts on Cingrani? Now that it looks like his time with the rotation is done, any chance we see him as a late innings reliever?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Sure. I loved him before he got hurt.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: I have a feeling he will end up being the Reds closer at some point this season.

9:23	marlinfan: Would it make sense for the Marlins to sign Desmond to a three year deal and use him at 3rd? This would give them a 3rd baseman next year when they lose Prado and allow them to use Prado to fill in all over the diamond this season.

9:23	Paul Swydan: It might make sense for them, but I’m guessing Ian Desmond doesn’t want to move over to third just yet.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Desmond’s free agency has been on the weird side. I have a feeling he is asking the world and not getting it.

9:25	Ulysses: Do the White Sox need Cespedes in order to compete for the AL Central crown?

9:26	Paul Swydan: They need more than him. Their pitching staff projects to have the ninth-highest WAR in the game, but their offense just 25th. Cespedes will help for sure, but they have more work to do, or they’ll have to win every game 3-2.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: They need something more, but I think Fowler could be just as good

9:27	mapsamountainrange: Have you played a fantasy league with a defensive category like DRS? What platform did you use?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I have not. To be honest, that’d be frustrating to play in, because our defensive stats only update once a week.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Sort of with scoresheet. I was not a fan of scoresheet one bit.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Oh, ya, I guess that’s true. Scoresheet’s defensive ratings though were static throughout the year.

9:28	Paul Swydan: And I LOVE Scoresheet. Wish I had more time to play.

9:28	Oneear: If you played Fangraphs’ “The Game” and won, and never were contacted about getting your prize, how you let them know you were disappointed?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, Paul?

9:29	Paul Swydan: What’s your email? Paste it in a comment. I won’t publish it, but I’ll email you and we can hash it out.

9:29	Marvin: If we had robot umpires, would catchers, by market necessity, become better hitters?

9:30	Paul Swydan: That’s an interesting thought experiment. I would think that evolution would have to wait until we could conclusively tell whether catchers could “beat” the robots with their framing ability.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really. I think catchers will still get consideration based on how they handle the running game. I am constantly amazed on how much people value pop times.

9:31	Fes: I’m calling Cespedes to the Padres. Ownership approves the deal because Cespedes gives them the All-Star rep they want since they’re hosting the game this year.

9:32	Paul Swydan: I don’t buy it. If ownership was looking at this as a factor, they wouldn’t have dealt Kimbrel. Plus they have Tyson Ross, and maybe sort of Matt Kemp could sneak on if he has a good first half.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Interesting, but I think he may hold out for the first injury.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Oh and that James Shields guy.

9:33

Donald J Trump: America doesn’t bunt anymore! Now we have WHIP, WAR, PECOTA: these eggheads are leading us down the sewer. When I’m President we’ll have all the best people, we’ll have David Eckstein; Ned Yost is a great friend of mine. America will bunt again, we’ll get saves, we’ll make America get pitcher wins again! Thank you!

9:33	Paul Swydan: Well done satire.

9:33	Paul Swydan: I hope.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: You are welcome.

9:34	Ryan: Who are you guys pulling for in the CFBBQ best name bracket? I like Cheese Goggans.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I have seen it yet.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Mysterious Walker and Pretzels Getzien!

9:35	Paul Swydan: Here you go Jeff – http://cespedesfamilybarbecue.com/bracket/

9:36	Doc: What do you think of an Encarnacion for Sale trade? And if it happened, would the Jays be able to trade prospects to fill the DH hole?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Pretty sure the White Sox would never do that deal.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: The Jays could find a DH fairly easy or just the hurt regular. Tulo is on the team now.

9:37	Rick Hahn: If I’m not able to nab cespedes, how concerned should I be about giving up draft picks to obtain other upgrade options like Fowler and Desmond?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Depends on your five-year plan, I suppose. The White Sox always seem to be trying to do the reload thing instead of the rebuild thing, so I guess less than most teams.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Aren’t you bottom 10 and have your pick protected. Who cares about 2nd round picks.

9:39	Burntpoptrtz: What letter grade would you give the Braves regarding their rebuild? Do you think they’re on the right path?

9:39	Paul Swydan: To be honest, I don’t like the burn it down and salt the earth rebuilding plan, so they won’t get high marks from me, especially since they’re stockpiling pitching instead of hitting.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: B-, really disliked the Simmons trade, but Miller trade was a steal

9:41	Old Man Roto: How concerned should I be that own Kluber, Salazar, and Carasco? I own all 3 for a combined $13 in a 5×5 mix 12 team league. What if I owned Harvey, DeGrom, and Thor?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I’d sure feel better about owning the Mets trio, since the NL has more crappy teams, but if you have the three Indians pitchers at that price, I’d be fine with it.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I never am. It sucks when they go to Colo, but would happen with other pitches except spread out

9:42	Paul Swydan: Yeah for sure. It’s more of a negative effect for hitters than starting pitchers.

9:43	The Dude of NY: Jeff, I just realized Tyler Clippard is still a free agent. Is there an injury concern with him?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Not that I remember, but some injury news is starting to come out with Caravans and Fan Fests taking place

9:44	Daniel: What is the best B.I.G. song OAT?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea.

9:45	Paul Swydan: That’s a tough one. It’s probably “Big Poppa,” but “One More Chance Remix,” “Who Shot Ya?,” “Party and BS” and “Juicy” all are in the running.

9:46	George S.: This is apropos of nothing, sorry, but the fascinating thing to me about Mike Ilitch is that he’s never taken Little Caesar’s public. He could have raised a huge amount of cash. I don’t care for the pizza, but I have to admire the guy’s consistency of principle.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Ya, fair enough.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Pizza, Pizza.

9:47	The Dude of NY: Paul, what do you mean by “burn it down and salt the earth rebuilding plan?”

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: What Houston did, right? Sell everything and reload over 2-4 seasons.

9:48	Paul Swydan: IE, they’re trading nearly everyone of value and are intentionally going to suck. I sat through that with the Rockies – the “Todd and the Toddlers” years. It wasn’t fun for anyone involved. Baseball is supposed to be fun. I feel bad for Freddie Freeman.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yes, similar to Houston.

9:48	Paul Swydan: It’s easy to look at Houston’s playoff run last year and say it was worth it, but I don’t know that I agree.

9:48	Alex: Machado moving to SS this year?

9:49	Paul Swydan: At this point I don’t think that’s on the table anymore, but it’d be interesting to see him play there. Pretty big “what if” there.

9:49	Paul Swydan: All for J.J. Hardy!

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure, the off season is not over yet. The Orioles could bring in some help.

9:50	ButcherBrian: Could Trevor Story see playing time in Colorado with potential Reyes suspension/injury. Any fantasy impact in 2016?

9:51

Paul Swydan: Well, if he does get suspended, I would hope/think it would be to start the season, and I think they’d be reticent to promote Story to start the season. So, I’m not sure the suspension will affect his fantasy value. But he might see some action this year, especially if Reyes stinks as badly as he did last year when he does play.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I am looking for Story to make an impact in 2017. Others will fill Reyes’s void this season.

9:52	JB: If you were starting a 12-man keeper league, how would you guys recommend doing it (Type, Number of Players, etc.)?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Honestly? I kind of just like the traditional 5×5 format. If you’re not doing it that way, my main advice is 1) don’t pick stats that will double count and 2) make sure you have equal weight for hitting and pitching.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Just 5-7 keepers with strong round based escalating price.

9:53	Derek: Which fans should be more excited about their future? Astros or Rangers?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Probably the Astros. But I love Rougned Odor, and I haven’t given up on Jurickson Profar!

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Future is the Astros, but I like the Rangers to win the West in 2016

9:55	JC: How good is Lucas Giolito going to be?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Pretty darn?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Really good when he is pitching. His health may limit his potential

9:56	Gareth : Springer for Carrasco a fair trade?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Hmmm. I guess that depends. How many times is Springer going to get injured this year?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I know Carrasco has a goo contract, but I think it would take more to get Springer

9:58	Rapture: Will C. Gomez have any kind of bounce back this year? Can Hosmer repeat or even improve?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I think Gomez will bounce back, yes. Not sure Hosmer will improve, but I’ll ride with him as having a similar/same season.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I am looking at Gomez to improve and expect zero gains from Hosmer

10:00

Paul Swydan: And YOU should always expect ZERO gains from us. Because we’re incorrigible.

10:01

Paul Swydan: Which is to say, we’ll be back at the same time next week. Thanks for hanging out everybody!

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG