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“This is the stupidest thing I’ve heard in my life.”

– Billy Hamilton on the following proposal

GOODYEAR, Ariz. — There has always been some debate about where to bat Billy Hamilton in the lineup.

He has the world-class speed that managers traditionally prize out of a leadoff hitter. Hamilton, for example, was the fastest man in the game by some measures in 2016 and has trailed only Byron Buxton (30.2 feet/second) in Statcast’s “sprint speed” each of the last two seasons.

The problem, of course, is the rate at which he gets (or doesn’t get) on base. Hamilton recorded a .299 OBP last season, 11th worst amongst qualified hitters. His career mark is almost precisely the same (.298). In the modern era of lineup construction, avoiding outs is regarded as a greater asset for leadoff hitters than speed alone.

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On Tuesday, in Grapefruit League play, those in Clearwater, Fla., witnessed what might possibly represent the future of defensive alignment. They at least saw how aggressive and creative first-year Phillies manager Gabe Kapler is prepared to be.

As Matt Gelb reported for The Athletic, non-roster invite outfielder Collin Cowgill and Tommy Joseph (who is playing some outfield this spring) were told before the game that, if Tigers switch-hitting prospect Victor Reyes batted left-handed, they would swap corner-outfield positions. Reyes did bat left-handed, and when he did, Cowgill and Joseph swapped their positions mid-inning.

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Last spring, I detailed how the Rays had, over the years, created a cult of the high fastball. Nor did their commitment to the pitch waver at all during the 2017 regular season. The club’s pitchers remained fully invested in throwing fastballs up last year — despite some of the negative side effects (notably, the home run) suffered by an arm like Jake Odorizzi, whom they have since dispatched to Minnesota.

Interestingly, at least to this author, the Rays now appear to be paying closer attention to fastball performance on the other side of the ball — that is, with regard to their hitters. If you are among that class of hitter who has difficulty with the fastball, the Rays seem increasingly less likely to employ you. Tampa Bay ranked 28th in performance against fastballs last season, according to linear weights. This offseason, however, they have shed some of their weakest fastballs hitters.

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In 2016, catcher Gary Sanchez packed a season’s worth of production into the final two months of the campaign, recording more than three wins during that brief period. Last year, it was Aaron Judge who broke out — to such a degree that he nearly won the AL MVP, in fact. Sanchez wasn’t half-bad himself, building on his rookie season with four more wins.

At this time a year ago, though, neither Sanchez nor Judge was the story of Yankees camp. Rather, it was Greg Bird. In Grapefruit League play last spring, Bird hit eight home runs and posted a 1.654 OPS over 51 at-bats. He appeared poised to build upon 178 promising plate appearances as a rookie when he slashed .261/.343/.529 (137 wRC+) in 2015. But after missing all of 2016 with a labrum tear, the first half of Bird’s 2017 season was again derailed — in this case by a foot injury.

The first baseman’s numbers were ultimately pretty ugly, as he slashed just .190/.288/.422 in 170 PAs.

Upon his return from injury, however, Bird managed to show some life. In 29 second-half games, he recorded a .253/.316/.575 slash line and 126 wRC+. And his underlying batted-ball tendencies are even more encouraging.

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Major-league batters struck out in 21.7% of their plate appearances last season, an MLB record. That rate broke the previous record set in 2016 (21.1%), which broke the previous top rate of (20.4%) set in 2014 and matched in 2015. Major-league batters struck out last season at a rate five percentage points greater than in 2003. You’re probably well aware of this trend — a trend of more swing and miss, of fewer batted balls in play.

Reversing this trend seems difficult. It would require a change in incentives or, perhaps, the ball’s seam height. Batters would have to trade in power for more contact; pitchers would have to throw fewer breaking balls and with less velocity. The game keeps moving toward more power, more velo, more breaking stuff. It seems, at least to this author, that this strikeout level is pretty sticky and might continue increasing for the foreseeable future.

This phenomenon means a number of things. Most relevant to this post, it means that defenders have fewer opportunities, thousands fewer over the collective course of a season, which erodes the value of defense.

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The Corey Dickerson saga concluded Thursday afternoon.

The Rays’ decision to designate Dickerson for assignment last week shocked many in the baseball community given that Dickerson, an All-Star in 2017, had just authored a 115-wRC+, 27-homer, three-win season. But the Rays wanted to rid themselves of his $5.9 million salary. By designating him, they would, at the very worst, be responsible for just 30 days of termination pay.

Jeff opined earlier this week that the Rays managed to trim payroll without getting any worse — a development that included, essentially, swapping out Dickerson for C.J. Cron. The 28-year-old Dickerson struggled in the second half, is projected to produce a 103 wRC+, and is not much of a defender or baserunner. There are quite a few players like Dickerson still available on the free-agent market for a variety of reasons.

While Dickerson is unlikely to provide All-Star value in 2018, this still seems to very much be a sensible addition and a clear win of a trade for the Pirates since it comes at little cost.

Daniel Hudson is coming off an uninspiring season for the Pirates that included a 4.38 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 0.1 WAR in just over 60 innings. While the Rays are getting cash back in the deal, Hudson is owed $5.5 million in 2018. The Rays also pick up Tristan Gray, who was not ranked among Pittsburgh’s top-25 organizational prospects by Eric Longenhagen.

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Last May, Jeff Sullivan — along with others like this author and J.D. Martinez — hypothesized that pitchers might already be thinking about a way to adjust in the fly-ball era. The possible antidote? To work higher. After all, the swing changes that helped produce a surge in home runs were designed largely to address pitches at the bottom part of the zone, notably the growing number of two-seam fastballs directed there.

Said Martinez to this author last spring of how pitchers appeared to be adapting:

“Pitchers are countering it right now. The pitchers are always ahead,” Martinez said.

What exactly are the adjustments being made to his swing path? Martinez and I had not, apparently, reached that level of trust.

“That’s one of the things you don’t want to tell anyone,” Martinez said.

While Martinez would not reveal what he believes to be countermeasures to his swing path, it appears pitchers are trying to elevate their fastballs against Martinez.

The home-run surge — whether a function of the changing ball, evolving swing planes across the league, or a combination of factors — began in the second half of 2015 and has since, of course, continued. Jeff found that, in the second half of 2015 and 2016, the increase in home-run damage done by batters had largely occurred in the bottom half of the zone. So it made sense that pitchers, especially those with high-spin fastballs with a rising effect, would turn their attention upwards.

Pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, for example. It was Odorizzi who told this author last spring that he had become more committed to a high-fastball approach. The numbers bear that out: the right-hander utilized the high fastball more than ever last season. Of course, Odorizzi also allowed 30 home runs in 143 innings.

Odorizzi’s 2017 campaign led me to a pair of questions. First of all, were pitchers working up in the zone more frequently last season? And if so, was it working?

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The Yankees entered the offseason determined to stay under the luxury-tax threshold. The Rays, meanwhile, have appeared intent recently on cutting payroll. As for the Diamondbacks, their moves this winter seem to indicate a club looking to quietly build on its first postseason appearance in six years.

On Tuesday night, the aforementioned organizations came together to accomplish their individual objectives in a three-team trade. Nick Piecoro reported on the most notable players involved in the deal.

Steven Souza Jr. should immediately assume Arizona’s starting right-field job, while Brandon Drury represents an option at second and third base for a club that lacks experience at both positions. With regard to Tampa Bay, they both shed Souza’s $3.6 million salary and land a small collection of prospects, including Nick Solak from the Yankees and Anthony Banda and two PTBNL from Arizona. Another prospect, Taylor Widener, goes from New York to Arizona. Our own Eric Longenhagen evaluates the merits of the prospects involved here. It’s not a franchise-altering return for Tampa.

So what to make of all this?

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