Baseball Is Amazing and Stupid: A Quiz
I think we can all agree that baseball is amazing. If we weren’t all on the same page, it stands to reason we wouldn’t all be here. I think we can also all agree that baseball is stupid. Sometimes it is extremely stupid. Other times, it is more forgivably stupid. But it is very stupid. Following in the true spirit of baseball, let’s take a quiz! There are nine questions, and for each, you select one answer from five options.
Question No. 1
You’re familiar with WAR/600, right? That’s just WAR over a constant denominator of 600 plate appearances. It helps to put everyone on the same scale, when you’re doing a comparison. One of the following five players finished last season with a WAR/600 of 4.8. It was the highest mark of the five players shown. Pick the player!
Question No. 2
Nothing complicated here; let’s just talk about strikeout rate. Which of the following five players just put up the highest strikeout rate, at 35.5%?
Question No. 3
Now it’s time to move on to ISO. You know ISO, or Isolated Power. It’s just slugging percentage minus batting average. Which of the following five players just put up the highest isolated power, at .266?
Question No. 4
Splits! Everyone loves splits. We already asked a question about WAR/600. Which of the following five players just put up the highest second-half WAR/600, at 8.7?
Question No. 5
Sticking with the split theme, which of the following five players just put up the highest second-half isolated power, at .368?
Question No. 6
Time for a change, by which I mean, time to compare 2016 statistics to combined 2013 – 2015 statistics. Which of the following five players just had the biggest hike in strikeout rate, relative to the earlier baseline, at +13 percentage points?
Question No. 7
Along the same lines, which of the following five players just had the biggest hike in isolated power, relative to the earlier baseline, at +144 points?
Question No. 8
Finally, we’ll end with two questions about Statcast, using Jeff Zimmerman’s corrected exit-velocity information. Which of the following five players just had the biggest hike in average exit velocity, relative to 2015, at +5.0 miles per hour?
Question No. 9
At last, which of the following five players just had the highest average exit velocity, at 91.3 miles per hour?
Anyone who’s ever taken a quiz wants nothing more than to immediately see the answers. Therefore, let’s see how you did. The answer to Question 1 is Adam Rosales. He finished with the highest WAR/600 in that group. He finished with the 29th-highest WAR/600 overall, out of 353 players who batted at least 200 times. The answer to Question 2 is Adam Rosales. He finished with the highest strikeout rate in that group. He finished with the seventh-highest strikeout rate overall. The answer to Question 3 is Adam Rosales. He finished with the highest isolated power in that group. He finished with the 12th-highest isolated power overall.
The answer to Question 4 is Adam Rosales. He finished with the highest second-half WAR/600 in that group. He finished with the third-highest second-half WAR/600 overall, out of 326 players who batted at least 100 times. The answer to Question 5 is Adam Rosales. He finished with the highest second-half isolated power in that group. He finished with the highest second-half isolated power overall.
The answer to Question 6 is Adam Rosales. He had the biggest gain in strikeout rate in that group. He had the biggest gain in strikeout rate overall. The answer to Question 7 is Adam Rosales. He had the biggest gain in isolated power in that group. He had the biggest gain in isolated power overall.
The answer to Question 8 is Adam Rosales. He had the biggest gain in average exit velocity in that group. He had the eighth-biggest gain in average exit velocity overall, out of 370 players with at least 50 batted balls in consecutive seasons. The answer to Question 9 is a tie between Miguel Cabrera and Nelson Cruz. Adam Rosales isn’t close to that strong.
Everything included in here is a fact. I’m only doing this because I saw earlier in the day that the A’s signed Adam Rosales as a free agent. I’m not posting this to argue that the A’s are organizational geniuses; Rosales is 33 years old, and last year he batted 248 times, and he is Adam Rosales. The man was a free agent until almost the beginning of February. The league isn’t buying it. Even the A’s, to some extent, probably aren’t buying it, since it seems like Rosales will be a bench player. But he kind of did what Sean Rodriguez did. Adam Rosales, at 33, on a go-nowhere team, completely sold the hell out. We’ve talked before about players who have sacrificed contact for power. Sweet holy Moses.
Let’s watch Adam Rosales’ career strikeouts!
Let’s watch Adam Rosales’ career isolated power!
Let’s watch Adam Rosales’ career hard-hit rate!
Even if you never really thought much about Adam Rosales before, you have an idea of what he was, in part because you never had much reason to think about him. He was a backup, a veteran utility guy, a guy with a basically average strikeout rate, and with Francisco Cervelli’s power. Then Rosales had a chance to play semi-regularly. That might be an overstatement, but he did get a few hundred chances. I know it was obviously a small sample, but this is what literally happened in the most recent baseball season:
Adam Rosales: .229/.319/.495
Chris Carter: .222/.321/.499
Think about how you think about Carter. Rosales was just the same guy. Only with a bit of speed and some defensive versatility. I don’t know what it means, and I can’t yet know what it means, but one clear takeaway for right now is that, every so often, baseball is just out of its mind.
If you want to give Rosales the benefit of the doubt, a few years ago he was one of those guys who got passed around on waivers. In August 2015, Rosales got released by the Rangers, and maybe he wanted to give things one more spin. Maybe he wanted to see if he could make himself more valuable. To the best of my knowledge, Rosales had never before really tried to hit for power, and, what if? What did he have to lose?
From the evidence, Rosales sold out for pop. And from the evidence, it worked, shockingly well. What does it mean for 2017? I have not one single idea. Can’t tell you what Rosales will be worth. Can’t tell you how much he’ll even play. But this entire baseball post is factual. This past season, among regulars and semi-regulars, Adam Rosales was a premier power hitter with swing-and-miss tendencies. Whatever.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I was looking for the “gotcha” question, but I wasn’t sure between #3 and #9. So you got me.
It was fun to watch the percentage for people who guessed Adam Rosales get higher every question. You could tell at what point people got it.
68% in Question 9!
I loved that. Obviously that was the point, but I’m trying to think of how this could be done scientifically. Also obviously, if this were a real experiment, it would be invalid, since eventually the experiment design became the primary measured effect. I guess if you had the same 5 players in every poll, it might give closer to a real guess.
It’s not an experiment though. It’s a quiz! #BillyQuizboy
Randomize the order of questions, and have the answers reported based on the order in which they were presented to each person. IE, “Among quiz-takers who saw question #4 first, Adam Rosales receiver X% of the vote,” etc.
Sample size becomes an issue, but that’s the best solution I see.
Either way it was fun the way it is.
If you’ve read a lot of the author’s work, you would start by looking at the first two questions, and just find the guy that is a choice in both of them. Based on the first question alone (and the title of the post), I knew the post was going to be about either Ramirez or Rosales.
Once I got to question four and realized Rosales was an answer to every question….Jeff as always you’re amazing at what you do.
It only took us geniuses 4 questions to catch on!
So my question is, who the heck is Adam Rosales?
At least if THAT had been the question I would’ve probably been able to pick the right one of the five choices
He is the guy who has 3 HR’s off Sale in 17 Ab’s.
Question 10: Who will suck in 2017? Adam Rosales
This is incredible. All hail Adam Rosales.
Bonus Question: Which player has been involved in by far the most waiver claim tomfoolery in the last 5 years?
Speaking for this winter only, David Rollins.
That’s not what you asked, but my memory is short for this sort of thing. Ostensibly, you intended me to say Adam Rosales.
Yeah, there was one year (2013) when the A’s cut Adam and the Rangers picked him up and made him tell them the A’s signs. Then they cut him and the A’s signed him. And then I think it happened a third time.
Once again Jeff, thank you. I would suspect polls are pretty popular around here. I thank this site for many, many reasons. Insignificant to some, but appreciated by many, what separates this site is the human factor. I can go read what is considered baseball content anywhere else, if I wanted to (at a price). Fangraphs opens the door as opposed to the blinds. Jalen Rose says it best, “Got to give the people what they want”. You as Fangraphs do that pretty damn well!
My thoughts the entire poll: Who’s Adam Rosales?
“Think about how you think about Carter. Rosales was just the same guy. Only with a bit of speed and some defensive versatility. ”
Not the same guy at all. Rosales faced LHPs in almost half his PA, vs. ~25% LHPs for Carter. It’s like comparing ERAs between a LOOGY and a full-time closer.
Okay, you’re right. How about:
Rosales vs. RHP: 105 wRC+
Carter vs. RHP: 107
Rosales vs. LHP: 125 wRC+
Carter vs. LHP: 126
Ah. Single-season splits. I should have guessed as much. That’s like saying that two hitters who performed similarly at Coors Field over a given season are the same caliber, even though one played twice as many games as the other did there. But whatever makes the narrative go round.
BTW, are RC/WAR using old Petco park factor data (pre-2016), or do they include last season’s relative launching pad that was Petco?
I think you are being intentionally obtuse. No one on the planet believes Adam Rosales is as good a hitter as Chris Carter. But he was as good a hitter in the most recent season. That is very literally the entire point.
My point is simple: context matters. FG metrics do not adjust for opponent handedness, even though it absolutely affects performance, esp. in small sample analysis of a platoon player vs. a full-time player. As I stated, you are essentially looking at the ERA of a LOOGY and saying, “last year, he was just ‘as good’ as Closer X,” even though closer X had to face a much higher pct. of opp-handed hitters. Not sure how to be any more clear.
As for the park factors, if you are using old Petco park factors, and the park is playing significantly differently now (something debated on FG several times last season), all park-adjusted metrics will have over-rated Padres hitters and under-rated Padres pitchers last season.
as it turned out, “intentionally” was too charitable
Please tell me there’s a story about a fated encounter / conversation with Marlon Byrd behind this.
I met Rosales briefly just before his Rangers played at the White Sox on Father’s Day 2015. He stood next to the stands with his pretty blond wife and their darling little girl. I knew who he was because his sprint to first base after he draws a walk is particularly memorable, and I asked him about that. He said he lived in Chicago. Nice guy.
i actually started out answering adam rosales to every question just because that’s the kind of person i am, then around question 4 got bored and started branching out. so i guess i’m doing my best to screw everything up
Imagine what a whole team of Adam Rosaleses could do.
I have but lack sophisticated enough tools to accurately project it : basically the composite of the A’s rosters over the last 5 years?
You mean, what would Adam P. Rosales be able to do
because, well, you know
A lot — if MLB would only outlaw pitching right-handed.
Rosales played for my uncle at Western Michigan University! I have followed his entire career. You forgot to mention his incredibly fast (Statcast-certified) home run trot. Excellent work Jeff!
I’m glad I got the first one right, or I would have done really bad on that quiz.
Remember when Rosales kept getting claimed and released by the A’s and Rangers? They were onto something.
While obviously Adam Rosales was a case of “one of these things is not like the other” from the get-go in each grouping I think I acknowledged my confirmation bias that Jeff Sullivan content would amuse and surprise me especially by perversely answering the most “obvious” player in each bracket despite overwhelming evidence of this being an incognito Adam Rosales piece to the contrary.
Count my votes amongst the rubes who didn’t get it in each and every vote: I half refused to believe that these things could be true of Rosales despite the circumstantial evidence and half tipped my cap to the amazing premise by playing along with otherwise “informed” votes.
I hope Jeff (and, frankly, the rest of the staff too) read this. This was a quote on a White Sox site I frequent.
“Fangraphs has a lot of very lazy analysis and aside from their prospect stuff I don’t take any of it seriously. A lot of them just coming up w an idea and finding the stats to prove it rather than the other way around. [sic]”
http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=101612&view=findpost&p=3476219
You will see me question it later on (with a vaguely similar name), with no response from the author.
Anyways, I wanted to point this out after reading this, because this post, as well as virtually everything I read on this site, strongly contradict that idea. Like, how can you be lazy and figure out that Chris Carter and Adam Rosales were the same player last year?
You guys are awesome.
What does that comment you quoted even mean?
Is establishing a hypothesis and then accumulating evidence to prove it basically the scientific method?
I don’t know if it is even possible to look at a set of facts without some idea/theory of how to organize them and extrapolate a meaningful idea…
It’s more like trying to disprove the hypothesis, but basically yes.
I think the commenter is saying: an author comes up with a hypothesis and then searches for stats which support that hypothesis while ignoring stats which may contradict it or cast doubt upon its certainty.
Establishing a hypothesis and accumulating evidence to prove it is only part of the scientific method. If while accumulating supporting evidence, one comes across and ignores evidence to the contrary, then the process is definitely not scientifically sound.
Honestly, none of this even applies here because Jeff is not making any sort of testable claim other than that Rosales and Carter were similar last year. Sure it’s not a dramatic claim and maybe some people find it lazy, but whatever. It’s just a post and no one has to read it if they find it uninteresting.
I guessed Adam Rosales for the first question simply because he was the only player in the group I hadn’t heard of. I then quickly caught on that Adam Rosales was the common element throughout. However I still guessed Mike Trout for question 4 because Mike Trout.
Should’ve thrown in a question about quickest home run trots.
If he keeps hitting so many of them, will his trot slow down?
This is great Jeff. I had no idea who Adam Rosales was so I refused to guess him initially. Then when I caught on to what the deal was, I stuck to my guns, just trying to guess basically the second place guy (whom I had heard of) after Rosales. Turns out went 0-for in that endeavor too. Baseball indeed is stupid.
I’m late to this quiz, but Jeff: you’d make a lousy pitcher! The only changeup you threw was question #9. After the 4th or 5th question it became obvious that Rosales had to be the correct answer. His name was in every single question, so that was a dead give away. It’s almost like a pitcher showing the batter how he’s gripping the ball before he throws it.
How are there 40 comments here and no mentions of PED’s. I like to give people the benefit of the doubt, and assumption of innocence and all that but…..
In the previous two years he played in his home games in Arlington and had a combined 18 XBH. This season in fewer at bats at Petco he had 28.
When your previous single season career high in ISO jumps from .136 to .266 at age 33, I can’t believe you’re not chemically enhanced.
“Maybe he wanted to see if he could make himself more valuable…..what if? What did he have to lose?”
Which PED’s do you take to double your strikeout rate ?
K-roids??
Sadly, this was one of my initial thoughts as well. You want to believe it’s a change in approach or small sample size statistical noise, or even a fairly dramatic change in home park factors or a league wide power spike, but somewhere in the back of your mind you wonder. Were the numbers clean?
I thought this was already amazing enough. Then I was inspired to check out the game logs based on the “second half spike” facts…and it gets even more amazing!
From April 30th to May 28th, Rosales hit .075/.196/.100. That’s, like, the worst month for a hitter ever.
Then from May 29th to September 25th, he slashed .281/.364/.648!
I’ve always wondered just how badly Roy Hobbs hit when he was jinxed, and just how well he hit when he had his mojo going. Silly me! I could have just watched Adam Rosales in 2016!
As a bonus, Rosales virtually didn’t play over the last few games of the season. Did anyone check him for food poisoning? Do we know how his dating life was going all season? WAS THERE A LADY IN WHITE IN THE STANDS ON JUNE 1ST??? So many questions!
Best. Post. Ever. Well played!
This is awesome!