Because You Asked: Evaluating Manuel Pena

Welcome to Because You Asked, a series in which I’ll dive deeper on some of the players who readers inquire about in my weekly chats. These tend to be guys who were absent or only briefly mentioned on our last list cycle, or players with production that’s out of step with their reputation or scouting reports. Also, Jonah Tong. Hopefully this exercise allows me to just tap a sign every week instead of writing the same sentence or two; we’ll see how it goes. First up: Manuel Pena.

Pena is a 22-year-old utility prospect in the Diamondbacks system. We’ve written about him before — Eric and I ranked him 15th in Arizona’s system in 2022 as a projectable power hitter — but he quickly fell out of the main section of lists and was absent entirely during our last three cycles. This year, Pena has started games at first, third, and second base, as well as in left field, and while he has a little shortstop experience on his CV, he’s primarily a four-corner guy at this point. Nobody’s asking about the glove, though. Pena has drawn attention for one reason: Out of nowhere, he’s among the minor league leaders in home runs with 29. This comes after he’d hit 31 in the previous five seasons combined, so fans and readers understandably want an update here.

Right off the bat, context is a big part of the story. Twenty-six of Pena’s dingers have come while playing for Amarillo — he’s only homered three times in 91 plate appearances since being promoted to Reno, not exactly a park or league known as a pitcher’s paradise — and 14 of those came in 31 home games. Amarillo has long been one of the most favorable places to hit in all of the minor leagues. Hot, dry, and 3,600 feet above sea level, the ball flies at Hodgetown, particularly when the wind blows out. And it often does: By some measures, Amarillo is the windiest city in the country. Last year, Hodgetown was the best Double-A park for offense by several orders of magnitude according to Baseball America’s excellent annual minor league park factor study, and it was second in all of minor league baseball in homers per game at 2.98 per contest.

Not all of Pena’s Double-A damage has been done at home, but all of it came in the Texas League. In both that circuit and many others, offense has exploded this year. Homers are up 44% year over year in the Texas League, and while we can’t be entirely sure why that is, many minor league analysts think that a change in the baseball itself is a big reason why. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America recently studied the home run explosion and wrote that “the uptick in offensive numbers so far in 2026 appears to be the result of some sort of accidental change” in the composition of the ball, a conclusion that I and several of my sources share. One team source I spoke with said that, holding launch angle and exit velocity equal, balls are flying 8-10% further on average this season in the low and mid-minors compared to 2025. Said differently, a lot of fly balls that were once harmless 330-foot fly outs are now 365-foot dingers. If you were a hitter looking to put up numbers, you couldn’t ask for a better spot to do it than Amarillo in 2026.

Still, no matter how favorable the environment, you have to go out there and hit the deep fly balls. Pena has done that, and at a far greater rate than his teammates. Jansel Luis, a preseason Pick to Click candidate, has had all the same advantages and he’s hit half as many homers even with an extra 60 plate appearances. Demetrio Crisantes has missed time with an injury, but he’s a top five guy in the system and a player we’ve projected to develop a plus hit tool. He has four home runs in 32 games at the level, while Druw Jones only has three all season. Pena’s production stands apart.

Let’s dive a little deeper into Pena himself. On the year, his measurable power is up. While he’s not necessarily significantly stronger, he’s hitting the ball hard consistently more often, and if he’s traded a little bit of contact to get to it, the exchange has been productive thus far:

Beyond hitting the ball harder for a few months, however, there’s very little else statistically that suggests Pena has taken a step forward. His fly ball rate, which has hovered around 30% for most of his career, jumped to 41% in Amarillo this season but has dropped right back down to his career norms in Reno. He’s not pulling the ball any more often than he has previously. His average exit velocities have dropped into the upper 80s since his promotion.

Watching Pena, things don’t look especially different either. He’s starting with his hands deeper, which shortens his load time, but he’s still getting to the same spot, and it’s not like he was constantly behind last year. His swing path is still steep as a default, with a little manipulation on pitches up in the zone. Really, what stands out more than the power is that he’s able to make a fair amount of contact even when his swing isn’t in the zone all that long. But that was true before 2026 as well.

In the long run, I expect better pitching will stress test Pena’s contact ability. He’s whiffing about 35% of the time on offspeed and spin, and his propensity to chase those pitches off the plate will limit his ability to both get on base and consistently make hard contact. Still, this is a young guy holding his own at the highest minor league level. While he’s not a great defender anywhere, he can stand at several different places, and the versatility and power combination gives him a path to value. Were I doing the D-backs list now, I’d honor the production and stick him toward the bottom of the main section as an up-down guy with a shot for a little more if his approach exceeds expectations. I’d grade him as a 35+ on our scale, and his tool grades would look like this: