Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/20

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: Judging from the early queue, we’ll have a lot of NL Central and trade market questions today. But everything is fair game — and I really enjoyed last chat’s board games talk, so non-baseball topics are definitely a go.

greg: Do you think Cincinnati is finished and will just see how things shake out, or is there a road to using some OF surplus to land the SS they covet

Richard: Could Danny Jansen and Ken Giles make sense for Senzel?

Ben Clemens: The Reds are really interesting now!

Ben Clemens: Not that they weren’t before.

Ben Clemens: Craig wrote about the Castellanos signing: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-see-opportunity-in-signing-castellano…

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure whether shortstop or catcher is more of a hole for the team, but I think this Blue Jays offer makes some sense. Not sure who says no on that one.

Ben Clemens: The shortstop trade market isn’t exactly deep unless the Rockies go all Arenado and trade Story

Ben Clemens: So given that, this kind of offer makes sense to me.

Giants fan: Do you think Dubon is good enough to be in the lineup of the next contenting Giants team?

Ben Clemens: I mean, not right now! The wonderful thing about prospects, though, is that their results are variable and unknown. This time next year, we’ll know more. I would try to give him a lot of ML playing time this year, though, between second and short. Not a lot of edge to holding a 25-year-old in the minors, and they’d love to see what they have.

Moooookie: If Dbacks get Betts, they have at least a 50% chance of finishing ahead of the Dodgers. Agree?

Ben Clemens: Haha, uh, no?

Ben Clemens: Admittedly our Depth Charts are a rough tool, but we’re projecting the Dodgers for 93 wins and the Diamondbacks for 79 right now.

Ben Clemens: Mookie isn’t *that* good.

Ben Clemens: I think we’re too low on the DBacks, but I also think we’re low on the Dodgers. Mookie would make them Wild Card contenders who could spike the NL West if things go well, but favorites? Nah

Baby Yoda: Should the Cardinals trade Gorman for Arenado?  I get the point but that’s a ton of future value for a basically fair-priced player.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, uh, this is a really interesting trade that says a lot about how you value prospects and stars. I think that trade makes sense, because acquiring Arenado makes Gorman less valuable to the Cards, and I’m not a huge fan of the type of prospect Gorman is (power-first corner infielders with contact issues)

Ben Clemens: But I also acknowledge that you’re probably giving up surplus value in it.

Ben Clemens: But if it’s that trade or nothing? I’d be hard-pressed to say no as the Cards, assuming something gets done about the opt out.

Go pirates: There’s a lot to like about Joe Musgrove’s profile, could we see a real step forward in 2020?

Ben Clemens: I’m into a lot of the stuff Musgrove is doing — he throws basically the entire kitchen sink and gets whiffs with his secondary stuff.

Ben Clemens: Now, I don’t like throwing literally six pitches, because I think there’s something lost when you’re throwing the whole cutter/slider/curve spectrum; pitches blend together in a way you don’t necessarily love

Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen a lot that would convince me his cutter is worth keeping, and I’d be tempted to scrap the sinker as well, but I guess my point is yes, I like Musgrove.

DJ Tanner: People give Friedman a lot of crap for now cashing in on the Dodgers $ or prospects to get some stars. But it seems like he is playing his cards perfectly. Their farm is still stacked and their MLB team is maybe the best in the NL. Having a 20% chance to win a WS over a 10-15 span or a 50% chance to win one over a 2 year span. Don’t the see the state of the Cubs and Red Sox right now? Great they won a WS and now it is going to take years to get back to that level again and the fans are all upset they aren’t better. Can’t have both!

Ben Clemens: Yeah I am a really big fan of the Dodgers/Rays/arguably Cardinals model

Ben Clemens: Of constantly retooling without ever really going all in or rebuilding.

Ben Clemens: Now maybe I’m biased by growing up as a Cardinals fan and always having meaningful baseball

Ben Clemens: But I’d argue that counting only World Series titles is a bad way to look at things, and that building sustainable teams that are always fun and competitive is a great idea if you have the resources.

Ben Clemens: Now I’m not saying that every small-market team can just press the Rays or Dodgers button

Ben Clemens: But if you can, I think it’s the preferred strategy

.: Indians arguably follow that model as well, and it’s very satisfying to me as a fan of that team

Ben Clemens: Yeah I mean, they’re a special case in that they might tend *too much* towards sustainability, but man, watching competitive baseball every year is fun.

Christian: In a trade involving the Red Sox and Padres, I’m probably going to like the side that the team with Chaim Bloom receives more than I like the side that the team with AJ Preller receives, correct?

Juan: What do you make of the reported Padres-Red Sox trade talks and offers?

Ben Clemens: I dunno man, Preller has held his own in trades. You can argue that the Padres have made weird free agency signings or taken weird directions strategically (going all-in his first year there, for example)

Ben Clemens: But it’s very cult-of-the-Rays to just assume Bloom is going to win any trade. We don’t really know! And the Padres and Red Sox want different things, which leaves space for a trade that suits both sides.

Starling Marte to the D-Backs: Is what they’re saying right now. Thoughts?

TomBruno23: Hold the Betts to AZ talk as it looks like the Dbacks are going to acquire Starling Marte instead.

 

John Gambadoro

@Gambo987

 

Dbacks closing in on Starling Marte

27 Jan 2020

Ben Clemens: I mean, I like Mookie Betts more. But Marte would be a nice fit, and he’d also be around for 2021, when the young core could maybe be better, though the team is already good right now. I like that it’s basically further back-filling their weirdo infield.

Ben Clemens: Because it would push (Ketel) Marte to second base probably?

Ben Clemens: Which pushes Escobar to more third base reps, which lets Lamb and Walker platoon a little more at first, etc.

I betts he’ll be a padre: Whats depth charts say for Padres if they add Mookie? West might actually be competitive for a change

Ben Clemens: This would make it close!

Ben Clemens: Depth Charts would have it within 5 or so wins, depending on what you wnat to assume for outfield playing time there.

Ben Clemens: The Padres some how have 85 outfielders and also a huge hole in the outfield.

Seanto: Wouldn’t Tampa Bay trading for Nolan Arenado or Mookie Betts automatically make the Rays the most fun team in 2020? I mean, weird lineup maneuvers and a massive star to anchor it! How fun!

Ben Clemens: It would, but it would really not fit their recent MO. I’d love to see it, and despite my sometimes misgivings with their perpetual-motion-salary-suppression machine

Ben Clemens: I do love watching the Rays.

Ben Clemens: So yeah, let’s root for that, but also remember it isn’t so likely.

Craig: How do you foresee ARI starting rotat shaking out this season? Gallen vs Kelly for the last spot?

Ben Clemens: That’s the word on the street, but a)Gallen is a lot better than Kelly and b)they have plenty of pitchers who might take a step back or get hurt

Ben Clemens: I’d probably start with Gallen, but between Gallen, Weaver, Robbie Ray (might get traded!), and Mike Leake, someone’s going to be hurt or bad

Reuben: Meg had a good comment in a recent podcast where she mentioned that the cost of going to the ballpark for families was much more prohibitive to attendance than scoring environment or pace of play. In a world where so much money is made from television contracts, what do you think the best examples are of non-SuperTeams filling the ballpark? How would you go about doing it?

Ben Clemens: This is a great question, and I really agree with Meg on this front.

Ben Clemens: One team we are critical of, and I think rightly so, here at FanGraphs is the Rockies.

Ben Clemens: But they are *great* when it comes to getting people out to the ballpark.

Ben Clemens: They finished sixth in attendance last year, in a small-ish city that isn’t easy to drive to from many places.

Ben Clemens: Having been to a few Rockies games, I love what they have going on there. The tickets are reasonably priced, they have turned parts of the stadium into experiences (a party deck, a family area, that kind of stuff)

Ben Clemens: And uh, it doesn’t hurt that it’s one of the prettiest ballparks and the weather is great there in the summer.

Ben Clemens: It’s also in the city center (more or less), which is huge.

Ben Clemens: So those are the things I would do — PNC is another example of these things, though they’ve been undermined by the team just straight up antagonizing fans for the last chunk of years.

Christian: Is the takeaway from your article on HR/FB rates that xFIP is much superior to FIP for judging the quality of a pitcher?

Ben Clemens: If you only had one, and were trying to predict how good they’d be next year, I’d prefer xFIP.

Ben Clemens: There’s more stuff, of course. xFIP is too naive — I’ve found that hard throwers tend to suppress HR slightly.

Ben Clemens: But yeah, if you only had one, I’d always take xFIP.

Logan: First Steven Souza; now, MLBTR reports the Cubs are interested in Scooter Gennett.  Is this just a big-market team trying to troll its fan base by signing terrible players or tiny amounts?

Ben Clemens: I mean, Souza isn’t necessarily *terrible*

Ben Clemens: He raked in 2017

Ben Clemens: If you think it’s an injury story and he’s healthy, he’s a nice gamble.

Ben Clemens: Brendan looked into this one:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cubs-actually-make-transaction-sign-steven…

Ben Clemens: And I think I agree with his view that Souza will be an upgrade and yet that I wish the Cubs would have done more given their competitive position.

Dog mutton: Ben- do you think enough clicks for the White Sox this year that they are a very dangerous wildcard/playoff team in 2020?

Ben Clemens: Yes. Haha uh, that’s not a super controversial take I know, but I think they’re good now. Not as good as the Twins, who really hit the turbo button this offseason, but good enough to stick around. They get to feast on a lot of Tiger and Royal games

Alex: How do you expect to see the MLB handle pitchers that retaliate against Astros hitters this season? Give a warning with no punishment similiar to the Astros players? It would look fairy hypocritical if Manfred suspended pitchers retaliating more than the Astros players.

Ben Clemens: Why would that look hypocritical? Don’t throw baseballs at people and try to hit them.

Ben Clemens: That seems reasonably obvious.

Ben Clemens: Manfred’s ruling didn’t say “The players were granted immunity, but go ahead and chuck a few at them, we cool.”

Ben Clemens: I think MLB will handle people throwing at them like they handle all intentional HBP’s, and that’s fine with me. I honestly wish they would enforce stricter penalties on them.

Ryan: Given the depth the Rays potentially have in their rotation right now (McKay, Banda, Beeks, Richards, etc. all sitting at AAA), do you see a ST trade happening with Chirinos or Yarbrough? Would be a very Rays move to make, trying to capitalize on some other team’s desperation.

Ben Clemens: I mean, it would be a very Rays trade. But uh, what do you think those guys fetch in trade? I like Chirinos quite a bit, and Yarbrough okay, but for it to make sense for them, they’d need to acquire prospects who don’t need 40-man protection or stars. They’re not getting stars for them. So I guess they’d be aiming for prospects. Maybe they should see if the Cardinals are interested in Chirinos and Yarbrough for this young power pitching prospect they have.

Ben Clemens: Libera-something.

Dan: What’s the most likely reason the Cards didn’t upgrade the offense? Sunk cost for Carp/Fowler? Too high payroll overall? Giving opportunity to prospects?

Ben Clemens: This is a good question, and I don’t know that we’ll ever get an answer from them, so I’ll just have to hypothesize. I think the team is reasonably banking on a bounceback from Carpenter, but I’m pessimistic there.

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re also in the position where it’s a tough team to upgrade, because honestly, Nick Castellanos versus whichever of hte prospects works out best isn’t an obvious call to me.

Ben Clemens: It’s a downer for 2020, because they’ll have to play these guys a bit and might pick the wrong one, but the Cardinals are facing their usual issue of enough pretty decent guys that it’s a tough roster to upgrade.

TomBruno23: Re Souza and Gennett from a Cubs buddy, “Cubs must have lost data on 2018 and 2019. Souza and Gennett were 2017 anomolies.”

Ben Clemens: They’re different types of anomaly, though.

Ben Clemens: Souza was a guy with prospect buzz who looked like he might be figuring it out. Gennett got waived by the Brewers!

BD: Do you believe in Starlin Castro’s huge second half, as he embraced launch angle, or mere half season of randomness.

Ben Clemens: Somewhere in between? Brendan again:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/starlin-castro-signing-only-raises-more-qu…

Ben Clemens: He isn’t a guy I’d particularly expect to benefit from a launch angle change

Ben Clemens: In that he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard.

Ben Clemens: And derives a lot of his value from not striking out.

Ben Clemens: But uh, sure? I could buy that our projections are a smidge low on him.

Alan Nolanado: It seems everyone turns a blind eye to Arenado’s home/away splits… does anyone in the industry think he’s overpaid?

Ben Clemens: Oh, you mean his awful away splits, where he has a 109 wRC+? League as a whole has a 94 wRC+ in away games, and he’s dealing with a more difficult penalty than most due to the Coors hangover.

Ben Clemens: I mean, I just don’t buy this narrative at all.

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying there’s no risk, but people know park effects, you know? No team is going to be like “wait he played in COLORADO??? We’ve been had!”

Guest: Chirinos/Yarbrough to LAA for a 45+ prospect?

Alanando: You don’t pay 35mil/year for 109+

Ben Clemens: Yeah but that’s his road wRC+ man. People hit better at home! And he’s a premium defender, too. That’s also career, and he wasn’t the hitter he is now when he was younger.

Ben Clemens: Like, I respect that he does not hit as well on the road as he does at home, but what do you really want here?

Ben Clemens: People haven’t wildly misjudged him as a great hitter when he’s bad or anything.

LeMahieu: Rockies players really do fine once they leave, you know

Ben Clemens: Haha I mean, true! But yeah, I dunno, this is just shades of “Larry Walker wasn’t that good.”

Kevin: I think the 3 hitter rule is a huge variance that fans are not talking about enough. We are going to see a lot more offense this year, and blown saves as relievers struggle to get out of an inning right?

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical. I did some digging on this earlier this offseason:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-three-batter-minimum-barely-matters/

Ben Clemens: And didn’t really find much change. I think it will increase scoring overall, that’s for sure.

Ben Clemens: But probably not by a lot, and probably not in a way that tilts many teams’ fortunes.

WIll: Sorry for yet another Cubs question, but how much improvement can we expect from Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, and Yu Darvish given their terrific second halves?

Ben Clemens: NL Central is the place to be right now! Let’s take them in reverse order

Ben Clemens: Improvement from Darvish? I mean, I think he’s awesome. I think he will continue to be awesome in 2020. His early-season struggles looked incredibly fluky to me, and heck, Steamer projects him for 3.8 WAR.

Ben Clemens: Schwarber: I’m skeptical about expecting improvement here. He was pretty good in 2019 overall, and I’m not exactly seeing where he’s goin to add. A little BABIP regression maybe? More power seems tough, he was crushing everything in 2019. Also hard to project better health, he made 600 PA.

Ben Clemens: I think he kind of is what he is: an above-average regular who isn’t as bad at defense as people think, but isn’t as good at hitting as people think.

Ben Clemens: Happ: I don’t have a strong feel here. I never really got the joke with him, never really bought in. And he absolutely crushed in limited 2019 reps, but I think the sample size is so tiny it wouldn’t move the needle much. So: average-bat utility guy? I’m in for that

Desperate Times: Do you at all think that Luhnow’s rule-stretching reputation now at all vindicates Correa’s accusations that he was counter-hacking Luhnow’s Astros for first stealing info from STL?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think those accusations were always somewhat credible, and also don’t justify what Correa did.

Ben Clemens: If you woke up this offseason and were like “Wait, Jeff Luhnow is *sketchy*,” then my friend, you’ve missed a decent amount of the past ten years

Mountie Votto: Do the Reds still need to address the bullpen? They were a bit lucky last year, and fell off some in the second half. Maybe a bounceback from Iglesias and a full year of domination from Garrett will help, and I can squint and see one of the reclamation projects working out (Nate Jones?) but I’m skeptical…

Ben Clemens: I’m a big Bob Steve fan

Ben Clemens: Lorenzen is real, too.

Ben Clemens: I’m sure they’d love a bullpen upgrade, but I don’t see them as particularly needing it — it’d just be a nice bonus. They go four deep in people I think are for real, and Lucas Sims struck out 32.2% of opposing batters in 2019.

Ben Clemens: Over not zero sample size.

Ben Clemens: Plus Mahle might get a few reps out of the pen, and he’s nice too.

Ben Clemens: The back end of the pen is all has-beens and never-was’es, but that’s baseball for you.

Matt: Is the thing about trading for Arenado not the home/road splits, but the fact that he’s like the 30th best hitter (wRC+) but has the 3rd biggest contract in the sport?  As soon as that superhuman run of health isn’t there or the defense slips, this contract is rough.

Ben Clemens: Yeah I mean, that’s for sure the risk. Trading for someone who doesn’t have a true carrying tool but is just a star by doing lots of stuff well always feels suspect.

Ben Clemens: But look, that was basically Christian Yelich, right?

Ben Clemens: Albeit younger.

Ben Clemens: I think the real risk with Arenado is that he’s more of a 3-4 WAR type guy who’s just been playing out of his mind the past few years.

TomBruno23: Tis done, Marte to AZ for Liover Peguero and Brennan Malone

Ben Clemens: (furiously googles the prospects)

Oh yah: D backs trade for S. marte. Thoughts?

Ben Cherington: How did I do on my first trade in Pittsburgh?

Ben Clemens: This seems about right. Two years of Marte for two well-regarded youngsters who can push the Pirates window far off into the future. Fits with Cherington’s Boston-era m.o., and I won’t pretend to be an expert on the prospects involved. Eric and Kiley are great for that kind of stuff, and we’ll have reaction to the trade (from Jay Jaffe with input from McDongenhagen) later todya.

Ben Clemens: Or perhaps tomorrow!

Ben Clemens: But yeah, this trade makes a lot of sense for both teams I think.

I am the Walrus: If the Bosox ate $45M of Myers contract could they get Patino for Betts?

Ben Clemens: There have been a few different amounts of salary eating suggested in this trade. It seems pretty reasonable to me! I wouldn’t do it if I were the Sox, because Mookie Betts is awesome and Luis Patino is a 20-year-old pitcher who has made two starts above A-ball.

Ben Clemens: So if they’re trying to be competitive now, it’s weird.

Ben Clemens: But in the cult of always acquiring years of control and surplus value matches and so on, sure.

Ben Clemens: I think the math about adds up.

Ben Clemens: I’d love that trade for the Padres, though.

Nichols: Ben, you’re basically the poster child for the “cult of the Rays” : “Trading with the Rays is hazardous for executives’ health. They’re liable to turn a pile of straw into a 3-WAR outfielder, and get you to chip in Shane Baz while you’re at it.”

Ben Clemens: No argument here! It’s easy to get mesmerized by how they always seem to come out a little ahead.

Ben Clemens: That said, I think that there are really two styles of Rays trade, and I like one of them more than the other.

Ben Clemens: There’s the upside plays, where they go get guys like Glasnow (worked!) or Souza (didn’t work!)

Ben Clemens: Who they think might be big-wattage talents

Ben Clemens: Or heck, Edwards this offseason.

Ben Clemens: Though I’m down on him a little

Ben Clemens: And I guess I’d include the consolidation trades in that, like when they shipped off a bunch of minor league chaff that was clogging their 40-man for Tommy Pham (Genesis Cabrera is at least interesting though)

Ben Clemens: I like that style of trade, because I think it’s a good use of their player development pipeline

Ben Clemens: I’m less enamored with the endless flipping ones, because I don’t know how much they actually help them

Ben Clemens: Like if the Rays trade a major league pitcher for a 45+ pitching prospect in Low A, they might win, for sure

Ben Clemens: But that’s more of a roster churning trade. And while they have to do it, I’m not sure it helps them all that much in the long run.

Kevin: Thanks for the article share. Missed that when it was posted. I think you may be simplifying things (he says with no statistical support data) by only looking at LOOGY types. Starters are more likely to go 1 more out to start an inning, causing more relievers to have to start an inning with a runner on. And it will affect next day availability as guys will be used to get 3 outs instead of 1. And aren’t we likely to see the manager strategically manage his late inning relievers more in the traditional 7th 8th 9th guy then the recent trend that teams like Tampa have been employing?

Ben Clemens: Yeah these are all fair things. That’s offset by the fact that I assumed some rough penalties, but I do think it’ll be interesting to watch. My initial guess is that it might make blowout games more blowout-y but if you discount that scoring, it won’t be huge.

Ben Clemens: I was trying to figure out if it massively helped out pinch hitters, but I can’t make the math work.

Ben Clemens: Like what I think it will actually do is help out lefties who hit 7th-9th

Ben Clemens: Because you can’t really expose a lefty pitcher there as easily anymore.

Ben Clemens: Low-cost pinch hitting opportunity for the offense there at this point.

Ben Clemens: But again, I haven’t been able to turn my thoughts into usable math yet.

2-D: In your opinion, most overrated board game?

Ben Clemens: Oh man great question. In the classic category, I’d say Diplomacy. That game has a cult following that I’ve never understood. It’s like pulling teeth for me.

Ben Clemens: In terms of more modern games, I’d say something along the lines of Pandemic or Eldritch Horror. Co-op games need to be careful to avoid the one-person-boss issue, and while more recent games have been really clever about avoiding it, I think those have the potential to not work out well.

Ben Clemens: Games aren’t fun if it’s just one person telling everyone what to do.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Do you think the Reds parley Senzel for a Syndergaard or a Boyd or anyone else to send the rotation to the next stratosphere?

Ben Clemens: You can never have enough pitching — but the Reds might have enough pitching??

Ben Clemens: Like, obviously Syndergaard could upgrade them. But there’s a diminishing returns issue here; he crowds out desclafani, who’s been worth 2+ WAR in three of the last four seasons.

Ben Clemens: And if they had no holes on the team, I’d say well whatever, pitchers get hurt, having DeSclafani as a swingman is amazing

Ben Clemens: But they really have issues at C and SS, and I’d prefer to see them address those in trade first.

Jake: Whata your take on assigning WAR values for pitchers based on FIP instead of ERA? Doesnt it make more sense to value someones work based on the actual results regarding limiting runs as opposed to expected results? A pitcher who gives up a screaming line drive that gets caught every time would give his team crazy value towards winning games and preventing runs, even if its not sustainable. (I write this as a Cardinals fan hoping Dakota Hudson continues to beat his peripherals). I gave probably a horrible example but you get the jist of what im asking i hope.

Ben Clemens: I think it depends on what you’re looking for. If you want to say what happened, I’m mixed.

Ben Clemens: Like, in your example, did the pitcher give the value? Or the outfielders making the catches?

Ben Clemens: On the other hand, if a pitcher happened to get all his strikeouts with runners in scoring position and ran a crazy LOB%, well, he did that, even if it’s not sustainable.

Ben Clemens: But honestly, if we’re just saying what happened, I’m not sure I care all that much. I’m going to look at both, and given that I already know what happened, I can take plenty of time to make sure I get it right.

Ben Clemens: If we’re talking about what *will* happen, I don’t think there’s any debate, FIP is better.

Ben Clemens: So if you’re using WAR the way I think it’s most commonly used, which is to say “Well this guy was x good this year, and this guy was y good this year, so I’d rather have x than y”

Ben Clemens: Then I’d rather use FIP

Ben Clemens: Because implied in a lot of these discussions is that WAR today means something for WAR tomorrow, and for that I think FIP is better.

Kevin: I love pandemic buttttt I am definitely the 1 man boss and I have found nobody enjoys playing with me which makes it difficult. Played Downforce this weekend which I liked a lot. Car racing/betting game

Ben Clemens: Yeah I know exactly what you’re talking about, I have to resist that temptation sometimes myself. Betrayal at house on the hill (or whatever it’s called in its various re-skins) is a good asymmetrical cooperative game, and Mechs vs. Minions has a novel way around it. Also I haven’t played downforce but did play Formula De as a kid, and I loved it.

Alanando: How do you evaluate a pitcher who pitches to contact when the bases are empty but for the strikeout with men on or in scoring position?

Ben Clemens: This is an excellent question and something where i think more research could be done.

Ben Clemens: I actually looked into walk rates in those situations before: i.e. walks are awful with bases empty but less relatively damaging with runners on base.

Ben Clemens: (relative to hits)

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-quick-note-on-situational-pitching/

Ben Clemens: I found that the only real predictor of people who could avoid walks with the bases empty were pitchers who were good at avoiding walks overall

Ben Clemens: i.e. the high-control guys saw the largest percentage decline in walk rates with the bases empty

Ben Clemens: But it’s a space with a ton of room for research, and it’s why over very large samples (3+ years) I’d rather look at ERA than FIP

Ben Clemens: Or xFIP or whatever

Ben Clemens: FIP style stats have inherent limitations — they’re not trying to capture everything a pitcher does, only the key parts — and so if you have a large enough sample that the noise isn’t overwhelming, why not use the extra data?

TomBruno23: Given the current depth chart, what do you imagine to be the ideal Cardinal lineup? Pick out of a hat?

Ben Clemens: I think a lot hinges on how aggressive they are with Carlson. Like, there’s little flexibility in the infield, I’d like to see Bader play most days, Fowler will probably play most days.

Ben Clemens: So you can mix and match leftfield, and maybe figure between Fowler getting rest and sitting Bader against some righties, that makes for another job.

Ben Clemens: For O’Neill, Edman, and Carlson to fight over?

Ben Clemens: I dunno.

Tabletop Talk: I’ve found Pandemic to be a lot more fun when you just play it completely face up as a full blown co-op.  I think the game itself suggests you play as a pseudo co-op, but when everyone basically forms a team to play as all four players at once, it’s much better.

PD: pandemic is an awesome solo game.

Ben Clemens: Look at the differing opinions! Lovely.

Ben Clemens: Note that I merely think Pandemic is overrated, not bad. I think it’s a pretty fun game. I think it really just depends on your playgroup.

Ben Clemens: And yeah, I’ve only ever played it as a full co-op, so that’s where my view comes from.

Foolsgold: 2023 Dodgers SS will be Seager, Lux, Downs or Lindor?

Ben Clemens: Gimme Lux in this one. But Seager second.

Doug: Am i missing something with the Red Sox thought process. Would they really give up Betts for Luchessi, Naylor, Myers, and Campsuano?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I wouldn’t!

Guest: Being a Padres fan, I’m all for it!

Ben Clemens: Haha I know, right?

Greene: Mark Buehrle: 34.2 Baseball Prospectus WAR, 59.2 Baseball Reference WAR.  Which better captures his value?

Ben Clemens: I’m not going to pretend I fully understand how WARP works these days, what with it calling from DRA so much.

Ben Clemens: But I’d probably say Bref is closer but probably high?

I am the Walrus: Is the Rox starting CF, Dahl?  Isnt he well below average defensively?

Ben Clemens: Yeah our roster projections for them are basically centerfield soup

Ben Clemens: Tapia, Dahl, Hilliard all getting run there.

Ben Clemens: Dahl acquitted himself okay by Statcast metrics, actually. And he’s decently fast.

Ben Clemens: I’m kind of surprised that htat’s the case, to be honest, I thought he was worse.

Ben Clemens: But eh, it looks acceptable.

Alvarez: You mentioned Cherington’s “Boston era m.o.,” but did he actually make any trades geared towards long-term value when he was there?  Wasn’t he mainly a player in free agency (Napoli, Victorino, Sandoval, Hanley)?

Ben Clemens: Oh all I meant by that is that he was very much a long-term builder. Never traded away future value. I can’t think of any trades that mirror this one offhand, but he was definitely a fan of having a deep farm system rather than spending from it, and so building up a good farm system seems like it’s something he’d love.

Dan: Pandemics legacy with it’s story and rpg elements lowers the solo captain problem

Ben Clemens: 100% agree

Undiplomatic: You are just wrong on Diplomacy.  If you find enough committed players, it is awesome.  Doing so is next to impossible however.  It is an amazing pure strategy game.  (And it has nothing to do with one person telling everyone what to do; it is everyone trying to convince everyone else what to do, lol).

Ben Clemens: Diplomacy is definitely pure strategy. I just hate how long it takes, and for not enough upside for me in terms of enjoyment.

Ben Clemens: Also it can make you hate your friends?

Ben Clemens: It doesn’t have to, of course, but it can.

SomeGuy: A’s ever gonna get a new stadium?

Ben Clemens: Man, I hope so. I live in SF and while the Giants are fun, that A’s jewelbox stadium concept on the waterfront looked amazing.

noname: i know we all think that arenado’s defense is good but I think we can’t truly believe it until we see home/road UZR splits and take them out of context

Ben Clemens: I do appreciate the sarcasm, but I’m actually kind of curious to see whether there really is something about Coors that goofs around wiht defensive metrics. In DRS, at least, it’s entirely possible that infielders could be improperly debited or credited if the home park suggested some kind of weird adjustment, like if teams have to play 2B and SS deep, that could mess with 3B numbers.

Rick: Is Dinelson Lamet the best starter for SD in 2020?

Ben Clemens: Love Lamet — and uh, nah. Gimme Paddack over him, though I think I have Lamet a close second. His slider is a very fun pitch.

Everett: Josh Donaldson mentioned one reason he signed with Minnesota is the success he’s had at Target Field.  Just a small-sample-size fluke, or is there some legitimate reason he might be well-suited to hit there?

Ben Clemens: Probably small sample. I really wanted to say “Well it’s only been open two years,” and then I looked it up and wow, opened in 2010! I’m old.

Ben Clemens: It’s a good park for righty power, which should help him.

Ben Clemens: But like, the size of these edges is small.

Kevin: Ignoring time commitment, top 2 board games of all time are Risk and Acquire. Simple but strategic, different layout after every move. Also played Human Punishment, a mafia/werewolf type card game which was embarrassingly complicated.

Ben Clemens: Disagree on Risk. Acquire is absolutely one of the most interesting games ever, though.

Ben Clemens: Levels upon levels.

Ben Clemens: I like games where optimal strategy is not pre-determined, and Acquire is like the logical end of that.

Peppa Pig: Matt Boyd, more first half 2019 or second half 2019 in 2020? Is the changeup something he should keep working on, or abandon?

Ben Clemens: Ooh I’ve been trying to figure out Boyd. I don’t know that I’ve gotten to an answer, but I have him more innings eater than stud, if that makes sense.

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think ihs change is fine? He used to really lean on it, and I don’t think it’s good enough for that treatment, but it has that Bugs Bunny hilarious speed difference going for it these days. I do wonder if there’s something mechanically weird about it, though.

Ben Clemens: 13mph differences with perfect mechanical repetition feel rare to me

Ryan: Are stolen bases undervalued when it comes to statistical analysis? By that I mean, I don’t see too many stats that take into account the ability for a good base stealer to turn a bunch of walks or singles into doubles and triples at the cost of a few outs. I know there is BsR (I think that’s the name), but there doesn’t seem to be much else. (Also, just want to say I agree with you with your response regarding Yarbrough/Chirinos being traded)

Ben Clemens: Nah, I think BsR does it right. It’s doing that tradeoff for every stolen base; run value of the added runner vs. run value cost of an out.

Ben Clemens: You could argue that stolen bases are undervalued contextually because the runs they help lead to are often in high-leverage spots

Ben Clemens: But it’s going to be a small edge

Mitch Haniger: Is Marco Gonzales roughly the same as Boyd, just a little worse?

Ben Clemens: Very different, but maybe similar results? Boyd is a strikeouts guy, Gonzales is a ‘wait he’s good?’ guy

Ben Clemens: I’d say Robbie Ray is maybe a better Boyd comp?

Edge: What first name is associated with the best combination of a pitcher and hitter in MLB history?  I like “Mike” as an early favorite (Mussina and Schmidt).  Others like “Don” or “Lou” seem to fall flat on one side or the other.  The Dons (Sutton, Drysdale, Newcombe) need a hitter better than Mattingly, the Lous (Gehrig, Whitaker, Brock) need a pitcher better than . . . Trivino?

Ben Clemens: Wow, I need to think about this one. Great question though.

Ben Clemens: Like Trout plus Mussina

Ben Clemens: nice

Ben Clemens: (lol at schmidt, c’mon man)

Ben Clemens: and now I’m just thinking across all names, which is very fun

Ben Clemens: Mike is very likely the correct answer, but I just really enjoy thinking about all baseball players

Cito’s Mustache: George (Herman Ruth and Brett)

Ben Clemens: teds williams and lily?

SomeGuy: Nolan (Arenado, Ryan) probably not the best but decent

Munch Hambungler: Roger(s), Hornsby and Clemens seems very strong

Ben Clemens: Ooh I don’t think that counts, but otherwise not bad!

Kevin: I hate the guy as a 2000s So Fan. But its definitely Roger Clemens and Hornsby

Munch Hambungler: Do you think JP Crawford has it in him to spray soft line drives around for a wRC+ of 115-120, or is he a glove first replacement level kind of guy?

noname: barry zito and bonds?

Ben Clemens: Wow I couldn’t think of a barry pitcher! This is the leader in the clubhouse now I think

Ben Clemens: J.P. Crawford, pass. Glove first replacement dude for me.

Ben Clemens: Like, maybe a bit better than that, but I don’t think spraying flares is a workable plan, and he strikes out too much for the power he has.

Ben Clemens: lightning round time, as I’ll be finishing up in five minutes

Guest: Luzardo, Puk, Cease, Whitley….order of preference?

Ben Clemens: assuming this is either dynasty or real baseball question, I’d go luzardo/whitley/puk/cease

Syndergardenomes: George, for Babe Ruth and Tom Seaver (George Thomas Seaver)  Nobody’s beating that.

Ben Clemens: technicalities to the rescue!

Nick: Al(bert) Leiter and Pujols?

Munch Hambungler: What should we make of the great “non-adjustment” Dan Vogelbach demonstrated in the second half of 2019?  How soon should the Mariners look to pry Dom Smith away from the Mets as competition for the position?

Ben Clemens: nah let vogey hit!

Munch Hambungler: Kelenic or Rodriguez?

Ben Clemens: I like Kelenic, but I’m not tied to the opinion.

Got it: Roy Halladay/ Roy Hobbs

Alan: Dynasty – Rutschman or Jasson?

Ben Clemens: Adley

Munch Hambungler: Bonds or Clemens?

Ben Clemens: I’ll take me

Ben Clemens: Unless you mean Roger

Ben Clemens: In which case, Bonds.

Munch Hambungler: Rutschman or Bart?

Ben Clemens: Dang. I guess I’d take Adley, Bart is close though. Looked really impressive in 2019!

Kevin: Do you do fantasy baseball questions?

Ben Clemens: Sure thing! Though I am no expert

Munch Hambungler: papusa or pita?

Ben Clemens: All depends on what’s inside it.

SomeGuy: 3 worst bullpens this season?

Ben Clemens: Just the Mets three times somehow

Ben Clemens: Nah, let’s go Nats (b/c obv), Marlins (b/c obv), and Mariners (b/c they won’t try)

Ben Clemens: Alright everyone, thanks for hanging out today, and thanks for giving me a steady stream of questions both serious and whimsical.

Ben Clemens: Let’s do this again sometime.

Ben Clemens: Have a great day.