Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/30/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I have a prior obligation (read: lunch) at noon PT today, so I’m going to keep this chat fast and light. I guess maybe that’s similar to always, but eh, faster and lighter. Let’s get chatting

Jake: What were your thoughts on the McNeil extension?

Ben Clemens: Seems like a great deal for the Mets to me, and I’m pretty happy that McNeil is getting a bunch of money

Ben Clemens: I feel like he was overlooked so many times in various prospect and major league player lists while continually being quite good

Ben Clemens: so I really enjoy seeing him just get a stack of cash, seems great, even if I think it’s less than he’d command on the open market if he put up another good season

5 Run Homer: Woah! It’s green now!

Ben Clemens: We’re fancy these days

Jfast: Are you higher on Korey Lee or Yainer Diaz to inherit the starting C role for Houston? Yainer’s bat seems to be real, but Korey has that arm

Ben Clemens: Lee, but I’m not particularly confident about it

John: Do you think the WAR positional adjustments need some reworking?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, probably. I tried to do a version of it with OAA data and to be honest, it didn’t look very different than the existing ones

Ben Clemens: But I’m not sold particularly on LF, DH, 1B

Gra: Alonso would get more than Olson on  an extension no?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, reasonable

J6: Since OBP and SLG both have batting average as a component , should we be looking at BA vs ISO vs BB% instead?  Works better with isolating the skills of contact/power/eye in my opinion.  Which would rank as the most important?

Ben Clemens: That’s definitely an option, but at that point you’re using a bunch of less-intuitive data

Ben Clemens: like, everyone knows obp and slug, I don’t think as many people know ISO

Ben Clemens: and you run into the issue of unfamiliar scale there too

Ben Clemens: I think that’s fine, but at some point you should just use linear weights if you’re gonna make it complex

Justin: hi Ben. Do you have a virtual hall of fame ballot?

Ben Clemens: I do. I would have voted for Abreu, Belran, Helton, Jones, Kent, Manny, ARod, Rolen, Sheffield, and Billy Wagner (exactly 10, and I would have voted for exactly 10 even if I had 15 votes)

Deck: Your articles on batting average were interesting and convincing. My problem was with the definition of value. You define it as adding to wins. For the sport as a whole, that’s unhelpful, since every win must be paired to a loss. I would say simply that the .300 hitter is more valuable than a .250 hitter because he’s more fun to watch. A player slapping the third pitch to right for a single is a lot more enjoyable than watching a .250 hitter work the count and jog down to first after the seventh pitch. Math has allowed baseball to be dissected in fascinating ways, but has added nothing to the total number of wins. The problem is, by focusing on wins, it’s made the sport dull. Ozzie Smith’s value to the Cardinals was a lot more than his impressive WAR. His value was that he was fun to watch — in the field, at bat and on base.

Ben Clemens: Oh, completely agreed

Ben Clemens: Value to a team in a wins games sense is fairly objective, but it’s definitely not the same as what makes the game most enjoyable

Ben Clemens: Steals are a great example of this. If I’m watching a game between two neutral teams, or a game that’s not particularly important, etc, I’d prefer 10 steals with a 60% success rate to 3 with a 100% success rate

Ben Clemens: It’s an oft-repeated trope that unfortunately the data supports fun strategies like going for it on fourth down (football) and spreading the floor (basketball) in other sports, but a style of play that feels plodding in baseball

Guest: Are you buying shares of Andrew Vaughn?  We’ve seen a couple of years of him already and also wondering about him being slightly under

Ben Clemens: I am

Ben Clemens: Unless everyone is and therefore the shares have gone way up without me noticing?

Appa Yip Yip: I know they just came out on Friday, but have you noodled about with the new Rogers Centre dimensions?

Ben Clemens: I’m just gonna wait and see what Derek Carty says, tbh

bosoxforlife: If the Braves had followed the same prospect pathof most teams instead of skipping Triple-A with Harris, Strider and Grissom would they be #1,#2 and #10 on this year’s lists?

Ben Clemens: I think that’s probably a bit high for Grissom

Ben Clemens: And then the usual caveats about how time is linear and you can’t go back and so on and so forth

Jake: Is andrew painter getting overated?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s being properly rated

RTJ: over/under 20 steals for Mondesi on the Red Sox in 2023?

Ben Clemens: Over

bosoxforlife: Penalizing a player, the DH, for something that he isn’t even supposed to do is the zenith of absurdity.

Ben Clemens: There are arguments over what ‘penalizing’ means and whether WAR should be a player that explains how different players contribute or something to compare one player to another

A Boy Named Yu: Obviously you’d prefer a 2-way catcher, but if you had to only pick plus offense or plus defense, which way you going?

Ben Clemens: Defense

Ben Clemens: I don’t really know if this is backed by evidence but I just feel like that is more stable

Dan’l: Do the Cards actually have an offensive logjam between incumbants & Burleson/Yepez/Gorman/Walker? Or are there enough AB’s & (likely inevitable) performance gap btwn players that it’ll be clear who should be starting?

Ben Clemens: I think it’ll work out thanks to injury and ineffectiveness

Guest: Do you buy Boston’s Bello’s September ERA of 1.65?  Is he a legitimate #3 starter?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. do I think he’s a true talent 1.65 ERA guy? definitely no

Ben Clemens: Legit 3 starter? I think that’s definitely in range

Ben Clemens: He feels to me like he’ll always be one of those stuff over command guys, and I think he’s in a bind where he throws too many fastballs because he can’t consistently land the bendy stuff, but the overall package still works because he misses bats

bosoxforlife: My comment about Harris and Strider is asked because in today’s environment would Dwight Gooden have been allowed to even be in the majors during his 19 and 20 year old seasons and his 20 year old season is in the top 10 of all-time.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I take your point. It’s hard to know how well they would have performed in the minors, of course. But if Strider put up the equivalent of his ML numbers in Triple-A while hitting 100 consistently, he’d be the top prospect for sure

Tacoby Bellsbury: Do you anticipate any competitive (dis)advantages this season from the Sinclair RSN economic meltdown?

Ben Clemens: Mmmmmm… No, but with risk to yes, like I don’t think it’s a 100% everything’s fine situation

Ben Clemens: The teams who would be affected are the ones who are operating on a shoestring budget and really never splurge beyond what they take in

Ben Clemens: So that’s basically the Brewers and then maybe some other teams a tier below them

ryan: I know Run Value of individual pitches isn’t the end-all-be-all, but it is insane to see Patrick Corbin’s slider grade out as the 3rd worse pitch by total run value considering what his slider was in 2018/9

Ben Clemens: It’s actually a great reminder of how much context matters for pitches

Ben Clemens: Your slider doesn’t exist in a vacuum, it exists in harmony with your other pitches

Ben Clemens: Corbin got SOOOOO much of his value from drawing chases on that slider

Ben Clemens: If he can’t throw a fastball by anyone, and batters can just wait out the sliders, things go downhill quickly

Ben Clemens: Batters used to swing at 55% of his sliders; they now swing at 45%

Ben Clemens: Given that he’s locating it in the zone about a third of the time only, that’s a good way to turn strikes into balls, and there goes the run value

Chip: Domingo German for Max Kepler. Who says no?

Ben Clemens: The Twins by a mile

Oaktown Blues: I’ve seen some A’s fans argue that it makes sense for the A’s trades to look unbalanced, because, as a team with fewer resources, the A’s could not succeed if they valued players similarly to all other teams. Does this argument hold water for you?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s necessary but not sufficient

Ben Clemens: What if the A’s were just trading these players for literal bags of baseballs?

Ben Clemens: Would you say, well most teams value getting players instead of equipment, so the A’s have to do something different, therefore these trades are genius?

Ben Clemens: Of course not

Ben Clemens: Sure, maybe the A’s have to try a different process to succeed. I don’t really believe in the process they’re trying, though

A Boy Named Yu: What would you name an expansion team in Vegas?  Or Nashville?

Ben Clemens: Las Vegas Aces is so good, it’s a shame that it’s taken

Ben Clemens: I’d love them to be the Las Vegas Sharps, though I think that’s probably not an option either. How about the Las Vegas High Rollers and the Nashville Sounds, just taking the minor league team name there b/c I think it’s great

ryan: Nashville is going to be Stars to honor the old Negro League team and because the group lobbying MLB for a team there has made it clear that’s what they want the name to be

Ben Clemens: That is also fine with me

Ben Clemens: Team names with historical connection always work

Oaktown Blues: Right, it’s not sufficient to say “they use different valuations so therefore the trades are good.” but generally speaking, do you think it is necessary for a resource-lacking team to “zig where others zag” in order to succeed?

Ben Clemens: I think you need to do that in one way or another. It could be favoring a specific type of player, it could be focusing on a different avenue of player acquisition, it could be like the Rays where you have 5 different things that you think other teams are undervaluing and you do all of them

Ben Clemens: Heck, it could just be a Braves strategy of going for super early extensions

5 Run Homer: re: analytics in other sports, I’d also like to mention that advanced hockey stats have generally led to an increase in scoring and game speed as well. We just got unlucky with baseball

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t really follow hockey but I’ve heard that as well

RTJ: The A’s owner is a literal billionaire – they are a “resource-lacking team” by choice.

Ben Clemens: That’s implied in all of our talk about teams

Ben Clemens: Like, no team has a shoestring budget either

Ben Clemens: But plenty of teams operate like they do

bosoxforlife: Tatis and Julio Rodriquez also played only a half season in Double-A. Do you think more teams might start bringing up their precocious young players, like Mayer, sooner with all the success these players who skipped Triple-A have had?

Ben Clemens: I think it’ll continue to be case-by-case, and I think that is wilse

A Boy Named Yu: Las Vegas Sharps or Sharks?  I could see sharks but not getting sharps.

Ben Clemens: Sharps, like wise gamblers

Teddy: Recently read some early scouting reports on Yordan. A few noted that he lacked raw power (40-50 grade). How projectible is one’s power vs. approach/hit tool? Would think that scouts would generally prefer a contact-oriented guy who might have the chance to put on muscle, as opposed to the other way around. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know how scouts would think about this, so I’ll limit this to how I look at things. I am by no means a minor league expert, but at this point I’m willing to say that I have a solid track record of finding interesting minor leaguers who are perhaps somewhat overlooked by the broader public

Ben Clemens: In doing so, I’ve found that contact skills feel more predictive at lower levels, subject to some minimum amount of power

Ben Clemens: The higher up you get, the closer the player is to fully formed and the more everything matters

Pat: Nashville Bachelorette Party’s is the only acceptable name for a Nashville team.

Ben Clemens: Nashville Honky Tonks would be fun, too, though they’re definitely not doing that

Ben Clemens: I wish they were an East TN team, I have way more names for those, though Chattanooga Lookouts is already hard to top

CLEV: How long can the Guardians realistically trot out Straw in CF if he keeps hitting below a 100wRC, even with the plus defense?

Ben Clemens: A very long time, depending on how far below 100 we’re talking

Ben Clemens: If we’re looking at his 2021 season, awesome, they’d take that every year

Ben Clemens: If he’s hitting like he did in ’22, with a .291 OBP and higher OBP than SLG?

Ben Clemens: I think the leash is very short there

ryan: Out of the two “Wow, that guy was really good at framing and could hit really well for a catcher but are not Yadier Molina” guys Brian McCann and Russell Martin, who do you think stays on the HoF ballot the longest/might actually get in?

Ben Clemens: I think McCann will stay on longer, but I don’t think that either has a real shot at getting in given the standards of catchers in the hall

Gashouse Gorilla: Your thoughts on Wacha?  Asking too much/too long or will he get it from a team who loses a starter once pitchers can catchers come in?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll end up getting a deal, obviously, but I think he’s likely been asking for too much and didn’t find the market he was looking for

Ben Clemens: at that point, as a starter of his general caliber I think waiting for an opening is smart

Ben Clemens: I assume he’s just working out on his own so that he can be ready when someone calls him up, seems reasonable to me

bosoxforlife: Are you into the World Baseball Classic? It will be fun to watch players actually trying to win in March.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, and my sense is that everyone here is pretty excited about it

Ben Clemens: The rosters are stacked, the players are going to care, and I love a chance to get in some guilt-free national team rooting

Marko from Tropoja: What’s your best guess for a Julio Urias FA contract after this season, and does it get signed with the Dodgers?

Ben Clemens: Hm…. Urias is going to be a rare case just because of his age

Ben Clemens: Eduardo Rodriguez got 5/72 as a 29-year-old who isn’t as good as Urias, Zack Wheeler got 5/118 as an older but higher-octane kind of guy

Ben Clemens: Wheeler was not yet an ace when he signed that deal, either. I remember people being surprised that he got more than MadBum and Ryu

Ben Clemens: Maybe something like 6/160? I haven’t given this one a lot of thought

A Boy Named Yu: Las Vegas Entertainers?  21s?  Jackpots?  Snake Eyes?  Rogues?

Chip: Darren O’Day retiring with $50mm in career earnings is legitimately a cool baseball story. An undrafted guy who throws funny managing a 15 year career in the bigs is why baseball is such an awesome sport.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, love it

Ben Clemens: Darren O’Day was good for a long time, and basically the entire time the most interesting question about him was ‘how is this guy good?’

Wireless Joe Jackson: How does one watch the WBC?

Ben Clemens: Looks like it’s gonna be on various Fox networks, so FS1, Fox, FS2 (didn’t know this existed), etc.

Chip: Do you think Josh Donaldson makes it through Spring Training on the Yankees? As bad as IKF was at SS his previous defense at 3rd would at least equal JD’s, and his hitting can’t be THAT much worse.

Ben Clemens: I think IKF’s hitting is a ton worse than Donaldson’s

Ben Clemens: I think he’d be a better defender for sure

Ben Clemens: Really, though, I think he should be a utility infielder, the role just makes too much sense

Ben Clemens: He just doesn’t hit enough to be an everyday third baseman

Franimal: Do you think Franmil will get a spring training invite soon?

Ben Clemens: I do, though I’ve been wrong about this repeatedly this offseason, I’d have said yes each of the past four weeks if you asked me this question

Stros: Houston seems pretty confident Brantley can come back and keep on hitting. Anything you’ve heard about his injury issues that makes you think he’ll get 400+ ABs?

Ben Clemens: Haven’t heard a thing

Ben Clemens: That said, I find it quite reasonable to believe that he’ll continue to hit when healthy

Brooklyngail: Feels like the Braves and Fried will part ways after ‘24, yes?

Ben Clemens: Definitely feeling that way to me

Ben Clemens: They’ve gone to arbitration twice in a row, that’s not a great sign for team and player being on the same page

Chip: “He just doesn’t hit enough to be an everyday third baseman” *Looks at Donaldson disapprovingly*

Ben Clemens: IKF’s career batting line is worse than Donaldson’s worst single-season line

Ben Clemens: In wRC+, IKF’s BEST single-season line is worse than Donaldson’s worst single-season line

Ben Clemens: or at least, excluding two partial up-and-down seasons at the start of Donaldson’s career

Ben Clemens: like, I wouldn’t really want to have either of them as my starting third baseman

Mr Met: What tips do you have for evaluating young pitchers that goes beyond prospect evaluator lists (though I trust Eric as a gospel). Given the sky-high injury rate among youngsters, I know it’s an imperfect science. But what other indicators beyond velocity could be worth monitoring. For instance, when does K-BB% become predictive?

Ben Clemens: I’m not going to lie to you, I don’t feel nearly as good about my prospect evaluation of pitchers as I do about hitters

Ben Clemens: I think a key thing that teams have hammered home in recent years is that fastball shape and command are really important, and that a lot of teams seem to believe (rightly so) that they can teach velocity

Ben Clemens: I was having a really hard time finding stable predictive things for pitchers, which is why I’ve done less work there

A Boy Named Yu: IKF is just miscast as anything but a utility guy.  It’s not his fault he jumped at the chance to be a starter.  That’s on the Yankees, not him.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, this is how I feel. As a utility guy, he’s great!

Ben Clemens: I’d be very happy to have him on my team as someone who can handle all three tough infield positions, can at least threaten to catch so that you can pinch hit more liberally with your catcher spot, and is a great situational pinch hitter when you need contact

Dan: From last week: AAA team plus five degroms. I started with the 2018 Mets replaced 2/3 of their innings with a pitcher that let up 1.7 runs per nine and 1/3 5 runs per nine. I think these assumptions (worse defense, more rested bullpen) are optimistic but not impossibly so. I replaced their offense with one that averages 5 runs per game, slightly worse than the worst real ream that year.  These assumptions added about 120 runs making them a clear playoff contender. But also the real degrom went 11-10 that year supported by a team notably better than an AAA team.

Ben Clemens: 5 runs per game!

Ben Clemens: that’s bad?

Ben Clemens: that sounds good

Ben Clemens: If that was supposed to be 4 runs, that makes more sense to me

Peetchers: Which of these young pitchers are you most excited about for this year? Lodolo, Greene, Brown, Kirby, Bradish, Bello, other?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s Kirby, but I’m excited to see all of these guys pitch

Ben Clemens: I love geeking out on young pitchers

Matt: What are your thoughts on the likelihood that the phillies sign nola to a contract extension before the start of the year?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s likely, but I’m saying this with zero real info about it, just a gut feel

hebrew: Is Aaron Ashby going to crack the rotation this year?

Ben Clemens: I believe so

Ben Clemens: They need to give him a chance to succeed as a starter

Dan: Yeah I meant 3 runs per game on the offense. Though now I’m thinking I may have made math errors not just a typo in the recap

Ben Clemens: ah 3 runs, yeah, that seems more reasonable to me

Ben Clemens: One lazy way to think of it is that replacement level is a mid-40’s win total

Joe Joe: Off the top of your head, what is the player projection that you think is most off (non-injury, non-jerk reasons only)? Mine is Chas McCormick as I think he’ll be in CF (i.e., he’ll get more defensive opportunities without the Crawford Boxes in his way) a lot more with Brantley back and Alvarez getting a ton of PAs in LF. Biggest thing I worry about regarding his performance is not getting PAs as a CF due to manager preference.

Ben Clemens: Let’s do some real-time checking here (I totally agree with you that McCormick will get a lot of CF run, btw)

Ben Clemens: okay, this is maybe being mean, but I’m a seller of Yandy Diaz posting a 138 wRC+

Ben Clemens: There’s some chance I’m just picking on an errant projection there, but that strikes me as too optimistic by a bit

Guest: has any work been done in figuring out how important it is for a starter to be consistent game over game? Like the value difference between a guy who pitches 6.0 innings of 3 run ball every day, vs a guy who pitches with a 4.50 ERA but starts vary much more

Ben Clemens: It’s in my list of questions to address, actually

Ben Clemens: So, maybe! But I’m going to do that work anyway

Ben Clemens: Alright, sorry to cut and run everyone, but this is all the time I have today. Thanks for jamming this hour full of great baseball questions, and I hope I answered them in a satisfying or at least entertaining way. Have a great day, everyone, and I’ll talk to you next week, same time same place.