Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/12/22

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, and welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: I’m going to keep it fairly short today, because despite it being the offseason I have found a fun project that I really want to get done today, and also pretty much all the free agent signings that have happened are already extensively covered here on the website

Coke Hamels: What are your expectations for Conforto’s production in 2023?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll start really slowly, there’s just a lot of rust to shake off. By midseason I expect him to be basically Michael Conforto, a 120-130 wRC+ hitter

Michael Kay: I reported that the Yankees are working on something bigger than Carlos Rodon. What was I referring to?

Ben Clemens: Carlos Rodon wearing platform shoes is my guess

Ben Clemens: Maybe Correa? Maybe a trade? I really don’t know, and the point of that report was to be cryptic

John: Senga deal seems cheap compared to the other FA pitchers, no?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think so? I am a little low on Senga’s potential just b/c I think there’s risk that his fastball is ordinary in the majors

Ben Clemens: He’s one of the few contracts where I had a lower projection than the crowd

Ben Clemens: But given how hot the market has been overall, I’d call this a relative bargain

Ben Clemens: The opt out complicates things, of course, but if I’m a Mets fan, I’m happy with this deal over trying to get Eovaldi or Bassitt

Moose_Bolton: The Red Sox handling of the Bogaerts situation indicates:

Moose_Bolton: A. An institutional unwillingness to spend money and go for long contracts in such a way that indicates that future deals may be avoided as well?
B. An unfortunate misstep but one that will be rectified (to some degree) through other deals that show they’re still in it to win it?
C. A bit of A and B?
D. Something else

Ben Clemens: I’m on like 70% A 30% B. I’m honestly a little confused about why they thought their offer was likely to win, I’m not sure whether that is legitimate or just PR fluff

Ben Clemens: If I’m a Red Sox fan, I’m definitely worried about the team’s plans going forward

cpins: CBT question: If a club sends cash along with a player does the cash count as salary for their CBT math or is it simply a cash-outlay with the full contracted salary carried on the acquiring clubs payroll?

Ben Clemens: so… I’m quite confident that when a team retains part of a salary, that retained piece of salary counts against the CBT

Ben Clemens: so if you, let’s say, trade a player making $20 million a year and retain half of hte contract, both teams have a $10 million CBT hit from that player

Ben Clemens: I believe that cash works the same way, but I’m less certain about that. Cash is generally only used for players who are about to go through arb but don’t have a firm salary, though, or in very small trades

Melissa: Is there a chance we are over-reacting a bit to the “greatest market ever?” Still seems like only the rich are getting richer and there are still a lot of good players that haven’t been signed..

Ben Clemens: Yeah, definitely a possibility. I don’t quite buy that it’s only the rich getting richer, because players ranked 30-50 in our free agent rankings have beaten both me and the crowdsourced estimates by an aggregate 75 million dollars of guarantees, which is nothing to sneeze at

Ben Clemens: But I’d be willing to believe that we’re seeing the most desirable free agents, as it were, coming off the board

Ben Clemens: the ones teams are highest on relative to projection systems, let’s say

Ben Clemens: and that the remaining group will be left fighting for too few seats at the table

Karth: Hearing a rumor that the Yankees are ‘kicking the tires’ on a Tatis trade. If Tatis is actually available, there’d have to be at least a dozen interested teams, right? Even with with the contract? The injuries are obviously a concern but I feel like the youth balances that out. And as for the PEDs, if he gets popped again, you don’t pay him for a year, and if he gets popped twice, well, you don’t have to pay him at all!

Kip: The Tatis extension seems even worse now if he’s no longer playing short.

Ben Clemens: Wide range of opinions here!

Ben Clemens: I haven’t heard anything about a Tatis trade aside from just the general reports floating around that maybe the Padres have discussed a trade

Ben Clemens: I’m a big Tatis believer, but even I don’t think I’d want to give up a ton of interesting prospects to acquire him given the uncertainty around his health and the PED suspension

Ben Clemens: which makes it hard for the Padres to trade him, b/c in my opinion he’s one of the best players in baseball

Ben Clemens: I think it’s just a situation that leans towards no trade because of the risk/reward to each side

j: no question here, just wanted to say that I’m about to take a stats exam and 80% of what I know about regression and OLS and such comes from your articles and excellent explanations! Thanks for the great work.

Ben Clemens: Thanks!

Hans Gruber: Rockies fan, can you plz give me hope?

Ben Clemens: I love watching baseball in Denver, the fans are great, and Monfort is willing to spend. At some point, he’s going to land on something that works, even if it’s by accident

Joe: Rays fan, Conforto? Need some more hitting!

Ben Clemens: Makes sense to me

David: When people refer to a number-one or number-two starter, what do they actually mean? I used to think there were 30 number-one starters, one for every team, even if they were unevenly distributed (the Mets have two, the Cubs none). But it seems that there are only a dozen or so pitchers who most people would view as a 1, while there’s no way that most of the 31st-60th best pitchers qualify as a 2. How do you define a 1, 2 etc?

Ben Clemens: This is a great question, and to be honest one that I don’t know the answer to

Ben Clemens: I think there’s some confusion between an ‘ace’ and a number one starter that just carries down

Ben Clemens: To me, a number one starter is more like the top 20 guys or so. Then you have some borderlines, who I’d call good number 2’s, let’s call that 21-40. Then you’ve got your fringe-y #2s, excellent third starters, 41-60

Ben Clemens: Then it’s just degrees from there

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’s what everyone views it as, but that’s how I see it

Chiefsnark: Would you care to discuss the Tigers-Braves trade? Here in Detroit the assessments have varied.

Ben Clemens: I wrote about it last week

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-braves-and-tigers-swap-production-for-…

Ben Clemens: Personally, I like the Tigers’ side

Guest: Whither the trades? The FA market has been moving but no fun trades. Too many teams coming out of rebuilds so there are few clearly defined sellers?

Ben Clemens: It’s easier to make trades when there aren’t free agent signings going on

Ben Clemens: I expect that they’ll pick up in January

Sad Red Sox Fan: Is there any reason to be optimistic about a Devers extension? With only one year until free agency and the contract values other players are getting right now… it feels like Devers will want to hit the market

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical, just based on the way the Sox have handled recent extension talks

Ben Clemens: Sure, maybe they’ve just had their eyes on Devers the whole times and lowballed X and Mookie as a result

Ben Clemens: But that seems more like wishful thinking than anything else

Ben Clemens: They just seem to be less interested than previous Red Sox regimes in signing long extensions to homegrown players

Ben Clemens: I hope I’m wrong, I like it when players stay with a team their whole career, it’s just more fun

Guest: Word is the Cardinals offered Ryan Helsley for Danny Jansen and the Jays turned it down. Would you have accepted that trade?

Ben Clemens: as the Jays? Yeah

Ben Clemens: I find that trade really confusing, though

Ben Clemens: if it was before Contreras was signed, then mayyyyyybe? But even then it seems like a lot for Jansen

RTJ: What’s your most controversial take on a FA move so far this offseason? A team that missed on a player or something else

Ben Clemens: I think that we’ll look back on the Rangers signing deGrom and Heaney as the start of a new core for them

Ben Clemens: and that they’ll be one of the big dogs in the AL for the next few years

Sabey Sabes: Feels like Boston is readying to go up for sale the way Henry spends and keeps buying into other leagues.

Ben Clemens: That wouldn’t shock me

Dan: Mr. Derrick Goold reported the return the A’s wanted from the Cards for Murphy: Nootbar, Donovan, & Graceffo. Do you make that trade as a Cards fan? And do you make that trade as an impartial analyst?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d turn it down as both, because as both an impartial analyst and a Cards fan, I’m really high on Nootbaar

Ben Clemens: That said, it’s close! That’s a very A’s kind of ask, multiple interesting but not wildly high ceiling players

Eugene: Hoyer seems dead set against long deals. From a time value of money perspective, seems favorable to teams to spread the value out over more years. Also lowers annual luxury tax bill. What are reasons a team would prefer to pay the same total out over a shorter number of years? Worries that future owners wouldn’t be willing to free up the 40 man spot from an old, overpaid vet? Something else?

Ben Clemens: Same total over a shorter number of years? there aren’t many reasons

Ben Clemens: It’s basically some kind of sunk cost fallacy

Ben Clemens: You might get extra production in those extra years!

Ben Clemens: I suppose there’s some chance the guy you sign could be a jerk and just ruin the clubhouse, but then just cut him

Ben Clemens: Now, if you hvae to chip in some extra money, though at a lower AAV, to get those extra years, that changes things a bit I suppose

TheVoiceInYourHead: Stop working. You work too hard. Take a day off. It’s baseball for chrissakes! Have a donut. Leave the house and get a breakfast burrito. Or two. Ask for extra salsa. Leave a one dollar tip. And drink some wine tonight. Definitely that. You deserve it.

Ben Clemens: This is pretty close to an accurate play-by-play

Alex: I don’t think the Giants are cheap, it seems like they care so much about value that it keeps them from winning most high priced free agent chases. I think Farhan does not want to go 4+ years on any pitcher. No 7-10+ year contracts for hitters either (Judge was exception).

Ben Clemens: I’m really not sure about that, we’ll see. I’m overall okay with what they’ve done so far, namely hunt the best free agents and not go too wild for marginal upgrades

Ben Clemens: I think the Haniger deal also suited them quite well, just team building wise

Ryan: What is Liberatore worth? Seems like the latest trade offers from the Birds, the other teams have gone around him asking for Graceffo, McGreevy, Hence or others. Concerning or just a fluke?

Ben Clemens: I would say it’s neither

Ben Clemens: I don’t think a good way of thinking about how players are developing is to see what teams are offering for them in trade

Ben Clemens: It’s rumors, it’s different teams’ pitching plans, and it’s very much a hypothetical market

Ben Clemens: What concerns me about Liberatore is that he didn’t look very good in 2022

Big Fan: Is it just me, or could you justify starting the season with Vaughn Grissom as far down as back in Double-A?  He was amazing for his first 14 games but probably has things to work on and adjustments to make.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, wouldn’t shock me. I’m not a big believer, to be honest

Ben Clemens: Played great but generally not in a way that makes me believe

Ben Clemens: Sorry, had to run and grab a snack there

Alex: What about a 3 team trade… Giants get Donaldson and Alek Thomas. Dbacks get Peraza. Yankees save money in tax for Rodon? Maybe some minor pieces involved too.

Ben Clemens: So the Giants just…. get Alek Thomas for basically nothing?

Ben Clemens: This is not gonna happen, haha

Ben Clemens: The Donaldson contract is not that onerous

Ben Clemens: And the tax doesn’t matter that much

Guest: Do you have any kind of rough guess as to how much of the Mets payroll will be covered by operating income, as opposed to actually coming out of Steve Cohen’s bank accounts? Is the team profitable, and is it profitable by enough to cover the increased expenditure? How much does the anticipated success of the team make up for the increase in payroll? Talk finance to me!

Ben Clemens: Legit no idea, also legitimately don’t care

Ben Clemens: They do just fine, SNY made a mint, team values are to the moon, and a year of operating income is just not something I’m gonna care too much about

Ben Clemens: I’m also not really sure the Mets themselves know what operating income will be next year

Brooklyngail: Feels like the Braves have looked at their analytics and decided, “Hey, we like Dansby. A whole lot. But he’s not a $20M-plus guy. Just isn’t.”

Ben Clemens: I mean….. maybe!

Ben Clemens: Or maybe he just wants to sign in January

Ben Clemens: Or maybe he wants to move away from home, or maybe the Braves are after Correa

Ben Clemens: It’s ironic b/c this is my job, but I think free agency would be much more fun if we all just took a month off from caring about the ins and outs

O’stradamus: Would a trade between the O’s and marlins centering around MLB ready talent be a logical move for both teams? Would Rogers to the O’s for Santander and westburg be reasonable for both sides?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the Marlins make that trade, and generally I don’t see many major leaguer for major leaguer trades happening between teams, like those, with plenty of holes

Ben Clemens: It’s one thing if you’re a team that has few holes and so is moving surplus for something you need, but that isn’t what’s going on here

Ben Clemens: The Marlins still need more pitching! Every team needs more pitching. And the O’s need players all over the place

Ben Clemens: Those trades make much more sense to me when they unblock something

Ben Clemens: That’s not happening on either side here

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Apparently the league was ready to veto SD’s 14-year $400MM offer to Aaron Judge. Am I wrong that this sniffs of salary suppression by the league? Is it really so objectively wrong for a team to be willing to buy out Judge’s early 40s that it must be payroll shenanigans?

Ben Clemens: I don’t really buy that rumor

Ben Clemens: I saw it reported

Dan: I agree that home grown stars are the best and wish there was a bonus pool for resigning with your team but if every team kept nearly all their players the stagnation would get boring. That said if a rich popular team is the one pushing the roster churn over a poor team that probably better for the sport right?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, probably right

Ben Clemens: There’s definitely a balance between everyone stsaying and no one staying

CB: Oakland’s Sean Murphy package demand (Nootbaar, Donovan, Graceffo) for Tatis, who says no?

Ben Clemens: The Padres

HOW ABOUT SOME NOOTY PROJECTIONS: It’s interesting that you’re so high on Lars. What do you expect this year from Nootbar? What’s his ceiling?

Ben Clemens: His ceiling is this year’s Brandon Nimmo, but with a bit more power

Ben Clemens: do I think he’ll get there? Probably not, it’s a ceiling.

EonADS: Given the insane asking price for Reynolds, do we actually see a trade this offseason? I know he asked out, but it’s not like he has NBA-like leverage where he can sit out and screw the team. And the Pirates aren’t good enough for that anyway.

Ben Clemens: I sure don’t

Ben Clemens: Sorry, I sure don’t think we’ll see one

Ben Clemens: Their ask is just really high

Mr. Burrito: It feels like salaries a taking a higher-than-typical jump this winter,  both in AAV and length of contract. Does that reflect a concentrated pool of good FAs, or do teams have that much more money to spend? Also, do you think this will hold again next year?

Ben Clemens: Eh, maybe it has a tiny bit to do with those two things, it also has a lot to do with salaries stagnating over the past few years while salaries exploded, the new CBA being in place giving owners more cost certainty, and huge inflation in the economy overall

Ben Clemens: If you don’t think ticket prices are going up next year, you’ve got another thing coming

Danboy McGraw: Should the Red Sox try and get Devers to sign a $250 mil+ deal before he also bolts?

Ben Clemens: They should! I don’t think they will

O’stradamus: If you had to pick one pre arb eligibility guy to start a Franchise with who would it be and why?

Ben Clemens: I guess I can’t count Julio anymore given his extension

Ben Clemens: Given that…. Adley

Did Chewbacca use TP?: If Mike Trout was a FA this offseason, what would he receive, given his health issues but decent rebound last season?   Would he get $300M?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think that’s reasonable for the 8 years. Maybe a hair more? I think I’d prefer to sign Judge to Trout just given Trout’s health but it’s close, and Judge did better than that, albeit in my opinion with a New York boost

Jeremy: Did the Giants and Red Sox just misread the free agent market this year? At some point, unwillingness to pay the going rate in free agency doesn’t make you smarter than everybody else, it just means you’ve decided not to sign any good free agents. That’s still true even if the amount you’re willing to pay *would’ve* made you smarter than everyone else in the free agent markets of recent years.

Ben Clemens: It can be a little bit of both, but particularly in the Sox’s case, they just aren’t willing to spend, it seems like

Ben Clemens: It’s not like up until this year they were just signing players hand over fist, they traded Betts rather than try to retain him and seemingly didn’t make Bogaerts many competitive offers

Ben Clemens: We’ll see what pans out with the Correa market but I don’t get that sense from the Giants just yet. They went pretty hard after Judge. The Sox missed by like 100 million

Ben Clemens: on Bogaerts

Nova: Can a Cruz – Volpe trade be balanced with lessor prospects or do both the Pirates and the Yankees value their internal shortstop relatively higher than other teams value them?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, why would these teams make this trade?

Ben Clemens: I just don’t get it

Ben Clemens: I never get trades like this that get suggested. The last time this happened was Chisholm/Gallen, the last time this happened at hte same position is, as best as I can remember, never

Ben Clemens: like it sounds fun, but why?

namiki: It seems that Koh Senga is coming from NPB(Japan).
Senga is one of the best pitchers in NPB, but is there any possibility of a decrease in Stuff due to the change of ball between leagues?

Ben Clemens: Definitely yes, particularly breaking pitches

M’s Fan: Best right handed hitting corner OF available still in FA market… Myers? Profar (S)?

Ben Clemens: Profar is not a good righty hitter

Ben Clemens: I think it’s Myers, yeah

Ben Clemens: In my opinion, that’s why the Giants went so hard after Haniger

Farhandrew Zaidman: Are you anticipating a Chris Taylor bounce back year? He never really looked healthy in 2022 and his defensive versatility is so, so important to that club.

Ben Clemens: I am

Nova: How many agents with clients who took a one year deal last years are (accurately or not) claiming to have foreseen the better environment this year.

Ben Clemens: Oh haha all of them

Doug: With the Padres going with Bogaerts at SS, shouldn’t they see how the market for Kim would be? Seems more like a platoon bat at 2nd with taking away his SS defense.

Perry M.: What would it take to acquire Kim from the Padres?

Ben Clemens: I think they’d reasonably ask for a top 100 prospect and a bit more. With the way he’s playing defense, he doesn’t need to hit that well to be valuable, and when he does hit well he’s a borderline All Star. The contract is solid, too, though it’s only for two more years

Ben Clemens: Murphy to the Braves

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go read about that

Ben Clemens: Have a great dya, everyone