Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/13/21

Ben Clemens: Hello, welcome to another edition of Let’s Talk Baseball During a Lockout

Ben Clemens: Should be a blast, and I love how interested people are in keeping up with their team even while there’s nothing going on

Ben Clemens: Perhaps we’ll talk some gift ideas and cooking/baking too, because I don’t have that many interesting baseball thoughts at the moment

Ben Clemens: Let’s get going

NashvilleSounds: Do you plan to add “Oneil” to your spellcheck and end up misspelling the names of other players, or leave it off and have to decline the suggested change to “O’Neil” a million times?

Ben Clemens: I don’t actually use my spell check

Ben Clemens: I spell fairly well, so I just leave it on default and assume names will often get picked up

Ben Clemens: So to answer your question: no

Ross: Who would you target coming out of the lockout if you were running the Mariners?

SGray: Any truth to the rumor that Jerry Dipoto had a deal in place for Sonny Gray, but wasn’t able to finalize it before the lockout? Would that be a good fit?

Ben Clemens: I have legitimately no information as to whether this rumor is true

Ben Clemens: That said, I like the idea of adding one more pitcher

Ben Clemens: The Mariners have a ton of interesting pitching in the pipeline, but two years of Sonny Gray isn’t going to change that

Ben Clemens: I’d like to see them spend free agent dollars on a hitter first

Ben Clemens: But it’s hard to get a pitcher of Gray’s caliber for exactly two years in free agency

Ben Clemens: In fact, it’s impossible

Ben Clemens: And I actually think the short timeframe fits them there

Ben Clemens: So I’d be very in favor of the move

Mrs Phanatic: I asked Szymborski but he didn’t have any good answers. Do you have any good productivity tips?

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure that I’m the person to ask on this

Ben Clemens: I would say that my main productivity tip is to focus intensely, but take as many breaks as you want

Ben Clemens: I find that I can be VERY productive in a ten minute burst, and then after ten minutes my brain thinks ‘okay I’m really bored of looking at WAR and $, I’m going to work at half speed until you give me something fun’

aj: sorry if you’ve answered this before, but if you had a HOF ballot who would you vote for this year? in the future?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t answered this before, actually

Ben Clemens: I really liked Ben Lindbergh’s discussion of what goes into voting for the first time on Effectively Wild a few weeks ago

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1775-ask-the-audi…

Ben Clemens: I’m glad I do not have a vote this year. I don’t know what I would do — but I do think I’d link Bonds/Clemens/Schilling (vote all or none) and basically vote for the big names aside from that. I’ll be very happy when Rolen gets inducted, he was a big part of my favorite Cards teams growing up

Kevin Garnett: ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!!!

Ben Clemens: Objectively true!

BigBagBerk: What (big hopefully) move do you see the Astros making? I think they need a bat ie Bryant or Story. Seeing Bregman is willing to move back to SS.

Ben Clemens: I would not move Bregman to short.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’d be particularly good there, think he makes a lot more sense long-term as a third baseman and there are several shortstops looking near-majors-ready

Ben Clemens: I kind of think they’ll just stand pat, to be honest

David: Better for the Mariners: Story, Gray, and Chapman; or Bryant, Gray, and Suzuki?

Ben Clemens: Lot of Mariners questions. I think I’d take the right group, b/c they’ll require less talent-based compensation and the Mariners have stated they have money to spend

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that they’re in a place where they can afford to trade a ton of prospects for impact players, they need some of those prospects to hit still

Ben Clemens: So I’d prefer to keep a deep bench and let my money do the talking this year. Next year, if they’re in a more stable playoff contention situation, let the trades get going

The Real Ben Clemens: Sort of feels like the Padres missed out on the chance to upgrade what is in my mind a rather shaky rotation. Still a good amount of depth but a lot of iffy injury history with no real durable ace at the top. Once the lockout is over, think they aggressively pursue Castillo, Gray, someone else?

Ben Clemens: But…

Ben Clemens: I’m the real Ben Clemens

Ben Clemens: Eh, I don’t hate what they did in signing Nick Martinez

Ben Clemens: I do think they need another starter though

Ben Clemens: Doesn’t have to be a world-beater, the top four of their rotation feels fine, but they are looking at a repeat of last year where they’re really vulnerable to injury

Ben Clemens: One thing that makes the best teams tick is resilience

Ben Clemens: And the Padres absolutely don’t have that at the moment

Ben Clemens: I don’t mean some mental fortitude skill, I mean layers of injury replacements

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays were rumoured to be in on Yusei Kikuchi, and he had 3 year offers on the table. Does it make more sense for them to lock in another starter for multiple years with >60 million already spent in their rotation, or trade for a one year rental à la Matz to leave the door open to internal promotion with the option to wade back into the market next year?

Ben Clemens: I like your second option

Ben Clemens: Trade or pay for a one-year back-of-the-rotation type

Ben Clemens: Just seems like a very strange use of resources to add more multi-year-starter types if they aren’t difference makers

Trevor: How much of a effect do you think stallings is going to have on the marlins young pitching staff. It seems like a perfect fit having him call games for those young guys. I guess I’m just wondering how much if any improvement in the pitching should be expected

Ben Clemens: I’m always a little skeptical of these unmeasurable but widely-accepted skills

Ben Clemens: Like, the Pirates pitching staff sucked this year!

Ben Clemens: Would they have sucked more without Stallings? I mean, maybe, but you’ll have a hard time convincing me we can know that for certain

Dan McGraw: What do the Yankees do? Simmons for short?

Ben Clemens: I think that they are likely to sign one of Story or Correa

Ben Clemens: I still think Correa makes the most sense

That Guy in Detroit: Any insight into who are the favorites for Seiya Suzuki?  Should we assume west coast teams?

Ben Clemens: West coast teams seems like a good assumption, but no

Ben Clemens: His posting period was paused when the league locked the players out, and I just haven’t heard anything worth repeating since then

Mrs. Phanatic: Two questions: A) have you ever cheated during one of your game nights? B) does your wife read these chats so we get an honest answer to question A?

Ben Clemens: Definitely not, I feel like cheating at games would just kill my enjoyment too much. I’m not saying I’ve never cheated at a single game — peeked at cards that are in view or whatever — but I don’t find it adds anything to the experience

Ben Clemens: As to B, she doesn’t always, that would be a lot of words to read

Ben Clemens: But my mom usually does, and I’ll have Jenna read this one too

Guest: Dodgers being in on Correa actually adds up .. If they were to get him, does Gavin Lux become a piece to acquire a Luis Castillo type?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I could see the Dodgers in on Correa too

Ben Clemens: I don’t really see them following that up by trading Lux, because a lot of the way they’ve built their team in the past few years revolves around overlapping position player depth

Ben Clemens: the last time they traded a player as currently good as Lux was… I don’t even know when

George: How do you think Lane Thomas fares for the Nats? He was legit a guy in the second half.

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll be absolutely fine for them as a fourth outfielder type

Ben Clemens: Seems hard to ask for much more than that from him

Gashouse Gorilla: Do you think the next CBA will try to be creative in making it less profitable to tank?  I’m assuming there won’t be a floor, but there have to be some ways to get beyond routinely having half a dozen teams race for the dumpster.

Ben Clemens: I mean, basically no

Ben Clemens: I think that would be a really wise way of designing the CBA

Ben Clemens: I think that owners are completely uninterested in it, though

Ben Clemens: Basically, I think that we’d *like* both sides to have the game’s best interests in mind, but that’s a lot to ask of either of them

Ben Clemens: My guess would be that the players are closer to asking for that…. but in the end, I don’ think it’s gonna work

Ben Clemens: Because they’ll accept just getting more money over slightly better anti-tanking rules

thebearproofsuit: M’s passing on Stroman seems like a huge miss on their part. They had money unexpectedly freed up from Kikuchi opting out. Now Jerry said he’s looking for a SP#2 via trade.  M’s payroll currently at 2021 level and down $75 million from 2018.  Any sense that the M’s actual goal is to be ‘affordably average’ rather than contend?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I didn’t love that for them. It kind of seems that way, but I will give Trader Jerry the benefit of the doubt just one more time here and say maybe he wasn’t as out of the loop on Stroman as we think

Ben Clemens: and that Stroman just liked Chicago

The Real Ben Clemens: Favorite holiday baked good? Made some delightful molasses cookies last weekend

Ben Clemens: Ooh

Ben Clemens: Pizelles

Ben Clemens: They’re delightful Italian cookies you make in a kind of waffle iron thing

Ben Clemens: My mom made them throughout my childhood and I love eating them every chance I get

NashvilleSounds: Some owners would be uninterested in disincentizing tanking, sure. The owners who try to make money through providing a good on-field product, though? I’m sure they don’t mind the absence of competition, but it has to burn to give away your own money to enrich, say, Bob Nutting for being a cheapskate.

Ben Clemens: I mean, why? Tanking is GREAT for big market owners b/c a) it means that they can tank occasionally and b) it means less competition for free agents

Mr. Burrito: Will the Bauer contract debacle change the way teams go about their due diligence… ? Also, how big a deal do you think the Bauer contract is for the Dodgers right now; did it prevent them from retaining Seager?

Ben Clemens: It absolutely should change the way teams go about their due diligence

Ben Clemens: This wasn’t a hard one to see coming, let’s jus say

Ben Clemens: Did it prevent them from retaining Seager? I don’t thikn so

Code Names Queen: Are you more of a traditional board game fan, or do you prefer/also enjoy card or deck based games like Dominion, Seven Wonders, Red Dragon Inn, etc.?

Ben Clemens: I am more ‘games’ than board or card or whatever

Ben Clemens: Some of my favorite ‘board games’ are auction games that don’t really involve a board at all

Ben Clemens: I also got into games through Magic: The Gathering, so I’m in for a good card game

Ben Clemens: In other words: yes

Ben Clemens: But I’d say that Seven Wonders comes pretty close to just being a board game, for what it’s worth

That Guy in Detroit: Do you think there is any issue with Verlander’s contract?  Could it be as simple as an email not arriving to MLB before the deadline?

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing it’s something as simple as that

Ben Clemens: Something kept them from finalizing it, and so they just haven’t

Ben Clemens: I’ll believe it’s worse than that when I see it

Don: Is it a feasible argument, twisted as it may be, that AJ Preller is actually doing a better job than Erik Neander by bringing up attendance, building hype, and all the financial benefits that accompany that. I know as fans we’d like for it to be solely about the on field product, but not long ago San Diego was bottom half of the league in attendance and was 3rd last year. There’s no doubt Neander and his group are better on the baseball end, and clearly have disadvantages, but if you asked those two owners if they wanted to swap franchises I don’t think there’s a doubt in the world who would want what, winning aside. Maybe I’m wrong though

Ben Clemens: I think that’s closer to the mark than you think, but I tihnk the amount of money he’s spent to do it complicates matters

Ben Clemens: If the Padres sustain this attendance level, then yeah Preller has done really well

Ben Clemens: Having more fans come to your games is really important

That Guy in Detroit: I have a kid that loves to play Monopoly (I think because he ususally wins).  I don’t even mind the game but I’d sure like some variety. Any ideas on a game that maybe appeals to the parts I know he likes (owning ‘territory,’ market pressures) to help the transition?

Ben Clemens: Acquire is an old property-owning game (stock in companies, actually) that I like

Ben Clemens: Ticket to Ride appeals to a similar itch, you’re building a train so you get to see your track grow

Ben Clemens: Settlers of Catan is an old classic, but building your town is fun, and rolling dice to get things is always a hit

Norm: What does it take to acquire Chris Bassitt in a trade? Could he fetch a 50 FV or are we looking at something like at a 45 FV plus some other pieces?

Ben Clemens: I almost wrote an article about what Bassitt could fetch in trade, so this is a good question

Ben Clemens: My answer: I think that I would be closer to the second option; a nice but not top 100 prospect plus a lottery ticket

Ben Clemens: I think that quite likely, though, some team would beat that

Ben Clemens: So I think that it’s just a matter of whether you’re willing to wait and hope the market is cooler than expected

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: You do any solo board gaming? I thought it was silly and then I bought Spirit Island.

Ben Clemens: I don’t do much solo board gaming, because I’d often prefer to play a computer game or read or something if I’m just goofing off by myself

Ben Clemens: That said, I love Spirit Island, and it totally makes sense as a one-player game

Ben Clemens: The big downfall of multi-player open information co-op games is that you might have an alpha gamer telling everyone what to do

Ben Clemens: And I think Spirit Island’s dynamic difficulty is a really clever way to handle that

Ben Clemens: Give the alpha gamer type the hardest spirit (lightning or whatever) and the newer players a more straightforward one

Matt: Love spirit island! Actually never played it solo though. Too many things to track

Ben Clemens: It is a REALLY good game

Ben Clemens: We also just played Ra for the first time over the weekend, and I loved it

Ben Clemens: Very different game, just naming some new things I’ve played

Harmon Ripkowski: To get Correa, some team is going to have to go higher than 10yr/325mil, right?

Ben Clemens: Yes, I believe so

GBS42: Recognizing the fact that 1200 people will have a wide range of opinions, when it comes to minor leaguers, do you think MLBPA members simply don’t care about them, expect them to have to go through the same struggles they did, or something else?

Ben Clemens: Broad mixture

Ben Clemens: I think that plenty of major leaguers actually want to do something about the plight of minor leaguers

Ben Clemens: Some don’t care, some think it builds character

Ben Clemens: But it’s a tough sell when there are always more things to clash with the owners on

Ben Clemens: Spending bargaining capital on that just feels like a tough thing to do when you mostly don’t get chances to bargain. I’d prefer to just do the major league bargaining and fight owners in the court of public opinion on minor league pay

Guest: so you think the twins view themselves as competitive in 2022? any way they can piece together a rotation / bullpen to get there?

Ben Clemens: I do thikn they view themselves as competitive

Ben Clemens: I’m not even that worried about the bullpen?

Ben Clemens: Now, the rotation

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s not great

Ben Clemens: I think that they will probalby do something halfway-ish like bring back Pineda, trade for a rental, and hope that works

Ben Clemens: Will it? I’m skeptical

Harmon Ripkowski: The recent HOFers had strong advocates and not many vocal opponents other than lowering the bar on certain stats (ala JAWS, hits, etc).  Do you think Dick Allen missed out because of a loaded ballot (with some pressure to vote for living former players), or in part because some of the voters do in fact oppose his election?

Ben Clemens: Oh, loaded ballot

Ben Clemens: There was a very good Effectively Wild recapping the era committee votes

Ben Clemens: Allen missed by a single vote, and he and the four inductees got 61 of a possible 64 votes

jj: I find it interesting that a salary floor is thought of as a way to make teams competitive.  it may be a way that allows teams to get some more minor league talent while having a higher payroll. The Reds trade Castillo for Hosmer and picking up some extra minor leagues – but that’s not, not tanking is it?

Ben Clemens: In the long run, it would be a good anti-tanking measure

Ben Clemens: Owners are more okay with tanking because they can have low costs to offset the inevitable low revenue

Ben Clemens: Teams are probably *more* profitable during a tank

Ben Clemens: If you can’t slash your payroll to 50 million dollars, putting a putrid team on the field that won’t attract fans is less appealing

Gary: Has there been any talk about being able to trade draft picks (besides the ones that are already tradeable) being part of the CBA?

Ben Clemens: I’ve heard about it off and on, but who’s agitating to get this in there? If the owners are in favor of it, they might suggest it, but why would players offer it up?

Appa Yip Yip: One time I got accused of cheating at the game Cheat because I was taught to play by my cousins who would hide cards under their butts and lay down three cards but claim it was two, and when I took my skills back home I cleaned up and people got very mad when I started fishing cards out of my pockets and I was like, the game is called Cheat like … Of course I did that? A go to move is to slide a card under someone else’s butt, then call them out for cheating so they have to pick up all the cards.

Ben Clemens: lol I don’t know this game but it sounds great

kevinthecomic: Pizzelles are the best!  One of my aunts used to slice boxed ice cream (you read that right, slicing ice cream) and use the pizzelles to make an ice cream sandwich.

Ben Clemens: Oh I could kind of see this

Ben Clemens: The shape works well for that

Ben Clemens: I have also seen people curl pizzelles while hot and fill them with a piping tube after they cool

20longyears: Any good game recommendations for reasonably capable kids? Raccoon Tycoon and Ticket to Ride go well, and at least the older child plays Castles of Mad King Ludwig pretty effectively

Ben Clemens: Sounds like you’re well on your way already. I really want to play Raccoon Tycoon

Ben Clemens: I’m partial to Camel Up! as a fun game, but honestly, I’d say that you should listen to your kids if they’re interested in the games

Ben Clemens: I loved buying my own games and hearing about the games my friend had as a kid

Stu: Who all do you think Oakland actually trades this offseason? Seems like half their roster is up for grabs

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll trade Olson and Chapman, plus one of the pitchers

Ben Clemens: I hope they don’t!

Ben Clemens: But that feels most consistent with the rumor mill

Cito’s Mustache: How does the lockout affect charity work players usually do during an offseason? Are players barred from participating in events with organizations that are official team partners?

Ben Clemens: I’m not 100% certain on this, but call it 90% certain

Ben Clemens: Players won’t do team-sponsored activities, but they can definitely still participate in events with team partners

Ben Clemens: So long as the partner isn’t doing it in conjunction with the team

Ben Clemens: Plus, most players doing a lot of charity work these days have their own foundations

Ben Clemens: And there are several good player-run organizations to work with if not

APODionysus: oh I almost missed the chat! You mentioned both today and last week you play MTG, Ben. Gotta ask: What Format? Limited? Commander? Modern? Standard?

Ben Clemens: Largely cube. I hadn’t played for many years when I moved to SF, but ran into a group of people who like board games, one of whom had a complete vintage cube

Ben Clemens: So we’ve played that a lot, and also draft from time to time

Dan: Will we ever see someone argue for Trevor Bauer let me pitch on short rest all season plan again?

Ben Clemens: Someone argue for it? Sure

Ben Clemens: I don’t think teams are very interested in trying it though

Appa Yip Yip: What’s the point of Oakland hanging on the Manaea AND Bassitt? If they’re trading away they’re not going to be good anyways, and a Manaea extension would be out of their price range.

Ben Clemens: I don’t know, Oakland always seems to be trying to turn SOMETHING around

Ben Clemens: They’ve traded Josh Donaldson without blowing everything up around him

Ben Clemens: This doesn’t seem so different

Guest: Thoughts on Max Kepler fit with the Padres

Ben Clemens: I…. don’t really get it?

Ben Clemens: He could play outfield for them

Ben Clemens: I don’t see the Twins as motivated to trade him, or the Padres as motivated to spend resources for a corner outfielder with a middling projection

Mr. Redlegs: I really appreciated your story on the Endeavor purchase. Would be great to get more ‘business of baseball’ style stories in the future imo

Ben Clemens: Thanks!

Ben Clemens: I’ll occasionally dip in when I find something interesting that I feel qualified to report on

Ben Clemens: My financial background is absolutely not in private equity or anything of the sort, so this was kind of right at the limit of what I felt qualified to opine on, but it was such an interesting story that I made an exception

Kendall Roy: Which way would you go SP wise if you were the Mets? How many SP do you think they still need? Eppler suggested 2-3 (before signing Scherzer). Anybody in particular you would target or avoid?

Ben Clemens: At this point I have to assume they’re looking for depth

Ben Clemens: Maybe you can’t count on Carrasco to give you 150 innings, but he’s almost certainly better than whatever you’d plug into the fourth starter spot

Ben Clemens: and Megill was kind of good last year!

Ben Clemens: Check out his Steamer projections, 3.84 ERA

Ben Clemens: I’d like to see them sign…. Kwang Hyun Kim and Carlos Martinez

Ben Clemens: To pick two Cardinals who can pitch in the bullpen or rotation out of thin air

Dan: If the Dodgers did better due diligence do they not sign Bauer? Does that mean if everyone does due diligence Bauer get punished before the victim reports anything? Sorry if my facts are wrong in this question.

Ben Clemens: I think it would likely have tilted the risk/reward towards offering him less money

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it would have stopped them from signing him, I’m not willing to believe teams are that driven by off-field character

Ben Clemens: Whether they should be or not is a completely different question

Story: Should we be worried about Story outside of Coors? Or have the Rockies hitters who’ve done fine post-COL proven we need to cut that out?

Ben Clemens: I would say it’s fine to be worried, but that history suggests there’s no inherent problem

Ben Clemens: If you have a specific worry about Story, this doesn’t invalidate it

Ben Clemens: If it’s ‘eh he’s leaving Coors, higher risk of failure’… well, that doesn’t appear to be true

Harmon Ripkowski: If you could draft one player for your team from other teams to have for the next five years, it’s not Trout anymore because of his injuries, right?  Is he top 5?  10?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s probably in the top 10

Ben Clemens: I’d take Soto, personally, though Tatis/Vlad/Acuna are all great picks too

Appa Yip Yip: If the Jays made that Bassitt trade mentioned earlier, would they have the best rotation in the AL? Top 3?

Ben Clemens: Surprisingly, per our Depth Charts, the Jays are right on the threshold of that already

Ben Clemens: We hvae them 0.7 WAR back of the Astros for best rotation, and 0.1 WAR back of the Yankees for second place

Ben Clemens: So…. yes

Dan: That Guy in Detroit should try Machu Kuru. (Spelling?) It’s got dice rolling property buying but is quicker and more mechanically sound as a game.

Ben Clemens: Oh Machi Koro (I think?)

Ben Clemens: I like that, but I think the expansions took it down a peg

Ben Clemens: There was one that let you manipulate dice rolls that felt overpowered

Ben Clemens: The initial game is quite fun, lots of rolling and team-building but fast paced

a: I’m not the biggest fan of expanded playoffs but wouldn’t they disincentivize true tanking? if it’s easier to make the playoffs then why sell off at the deadline a la the Cubs or Nats?

Ben Clemens: This is a great question and I think the answer is rather nuanced

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the answer

Ben Clemens: And I have an interesting idea of how to get to it

Ben Clemens: But it involves making my own copy of our playoff odds and running a bunch of simulations on it

Ben Clemens: Might be a good christmas project

Matt: Does the Harper contract get better when you look at the money FAs are getting at the top of the market?

Ben Clemens: Oh for sure

Ben Clemens: I thought it was a pretty decent deal in the first place

Ben Clemens: Now I think it looks better

Story: Do you think we underrate the impact mental side? Like COL treating him this way, might we expect him to be get a boost from a better scenario?

Ben Clemens: 100%

Guest: Re: the Mets, a writer who I think is respected wrote last week that there is “really only one option” for manager: Buck Showalter. Why do writers do this kind of thing? Buck would be fine, but there’s never really “really only one option”– and when you say something like this you are inciting people to react poorly if they choose anyone else, and setting yourself up to say “I told you so” if anyone else is hired and fails (which is a horrible thing to do).

Ben Clemens: I think it has to do with the way we as sports fans like to consume media

Ben Clemens: Like, obviously it’s not true?

Ben Clemens: But investing meaning in choices like that gives us more things to root for

Ben Clemens: I think that the reasons you named are very much marks in favor of doing it!

Joe: Who is the most valuable baseball employee in the league that is NOT a player?

Ben Clemens: Eh, I dunno, Andrew Friedman?

Ben Clemens: weird question to think about

Ben Clemens: Maybe Dr. Neil ElAttrache

Stu: Who says no to Nate Pearson and Gabriel Moreno for Jose Ramirez ?

Ben Clemens: Ooh

Ben Clemens: I thikn that the Jays would say no to that, but it’d be close

Ben Clemens: I’d probably do it if I were the Jays

Cito’s Mustache: Are the Jays making a mistake by refusing to move Bichette off SS? Just in the sense that it closes doors for them, and that he could probably play a competent 3B or 2B – positions that also need addressing.

Ben Clemens: Kind of depends how absolute their refusal is

Ben Clemens: It’s one thing to say it, it’s another if Carlos Correa wants to sign there

Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, I’m going to head out and get back to writing

Ben Clemens: We have a riveting (read: dry) look at the $/WAR landscape this year coming out

Ben Clemens: let’s gooooo

Ben Clemens: Have a great week, everyone