Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/14/20

2:00

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

2:00

Ben Clemens: Given that it’s December 14th and this is a baseball chat, I’m anticipating a slower pace today, which suits me just fine.

2:01

Ben Clemens: There’s still baseball to talk about, but all that baseball will likely be here on January 2 still, so if you have something random to talk about, the odds are high I’m into it.

2:01

Ben Clemens: But fine, let’s start with a baseball question.

2:01

Guest: Why does Bauer look like he’ll likely receive 32 million+ a year when he is extremely inconsistent?

2:02

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think I’m a bit lower on Bauer than the market is, but if you think that his jump in spin rate is going to stay, you can tilt your estimates towards his more recent form.

2:02

Ben Clemens: And pitchers with top-of-rotation stuff and durability aren’t easy to come by

2:02

Ben Clemens: I don’t actually think he’s going to sign a complete barn-burner of a deal, but I see why teams are interested

2:02

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Recipes:
We tried tofu in these taco bowls.
https://www.bonappetit.com/recipe/vegetarian-taco-bowls
Was overzealous in squeezing so the tofu crumbled, but texture and flavor were fine over rice with avocados. Didn’t like the red lettuce, would prefer pickled red onions. Trying this next:
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1020243-tofu-scramble
Another vegetarian option we make when we want leftovers:
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1020034-cheesy-eggplant-and-rigato…
We use a half pound of mozzarella and it’s still cheesy. To combine everything, we put all components back into the Dutch oven we made the pasta in and then put it into a casserole dish for maximum surface area (crispiness).
Finally, one of our standby recipes when we’re out of food. This recipe has no business working, but it does. Up the cayenne. Use a decent ketchup like Simply Heinz. Does not taste like ketchup.
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/7878-stir-fried-chicken-with-ketch…

2:02

Ben Clemens: I wanted to talk about tofu today, so this is very convenient!

2:03

Ben Clemens: I got my wife a tofu press (theoretically for Christmas, but actually b/c I saw it in a gift guide and was tired of using paper towels and pans to press tofu)

2:03

Ben Clemens: And we used it once, to incredible effect. If you’re going to cook a lot of tofu, I highly recommend it. It ups the crispiness really well

2:03

Ben Clemens: That last one sounds awesome

2:04

Ben Clemens: I might try to cook that next week, when I’m generally hoping to not have to work too hard on any meals.

2:04

NolanRyansRightHook: Speaking of Bauers jump in spin rate, do you foresee MLB cracking down on pitchers using foreign substances or letting things play out as they have been?

2:05

Ben Clemens: I’d lean towards them letting it go

2:05

Ben Clemens: Until I hear otherwise, I am skeptical of baseball getting rid of something that has been in the game for SO long

2:05

Johnny5Alive: I guess there’s some mixed reviews on McCann deal.  I don’t mind 4 years at about $10 million per – in baseball salary terms, it’s not really that much money, especially for a starting player.  Sure, you would rather it be 3 years, but $40 million vs $150 million or whatever Realmuto was looking for, I think I’d rather have that extra money to put toward other weaknesses.  Plus, what if the last 2 seasons are closer to the new normal? Then its a steal.

2:05

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m fine with it as a deal — I’m not a huge McCann fan, but at this price, your downside is a dead contract in the back half of it, which isn’t the end of the world at $10 million a year

2:06

Ben Clemens: I think the real downside is that it locks the Mets into Bauer or Springer if they’re actually trying to sign a marquee free agent this year, and I thought Realmuto was the best of the class by a fair margin

2:06

Ben Clemens: But on its own, I’m totally fine with it.

2:06

Pandemic Legacy: What is your hot take on “legacy” board games, i.e. those where you have 12-20 sessions but the board (and the rules) change and adapt after each session? It’s an intriguing concept during 2nd lockdown, but I’m worried about attention spans and replayability.

2:07

Ben Clemens: I’m into legacy games as a whole, but I do find myself getting game fatigue

2:07

Ben Clemens: My wife and I are partway through Aeon’s End Legacy (great, highly recommend), Charterstone, and Pandemic Legacy

2:07

Ben Clemens: Because we like variety in our games and have too many

2:07

Ben Clemens: All three are excellent games, and the replayability thing isn’t hte end of the world for me because I don’t have a lot of games I’ve played more than 20 times

2:08

Ben Clemens: And it beats the heck out of the cost of most entertainment

2:08

Ben Clemens: But attention span is a real worry

2:08

Ben Clemens: If you’re more of the flit from game to game type, I’d say no. Otherwise, I’m in favor of legacy games. The feeling of ownership over your character is awesome. Gives a different texture to the decisions you make when you have a history

2:08

Ben Clemens: SO you get a bit of an RPG feel in something that otherwise wouldn’t have it

2:09

Pandemic (the board game): Related — should I purchase Pandemic The Board Game? I’m a fan of co-ops, but there are now so many different variants of Pandemic (similar to the Catan problem now). Which variant of Pandemic should I buy? Is it gauche to play Pandemic during the pandemic?

2:09

Ben Clemens: Pandemic runs into what I call the Pandemic problem (original, I know).

2:09

Ben Clemens: If you have a power gamer type in your group, this style of co-ops (perfect information, no time constraints) will devolve into them giving orders or ‘suggestions’ and everyone being annoywed

2:10

Ben Clemens: If you don’t have oneo f those, though, Pandemic is great. I’ve only played the original and the Rome one, and I think the original is a solid game

2:10

Ben Clemens: I’d probably get that

2:11

Nate: Could you explain how much control the Rangers receive with the Dahl signing?

2:11

Ben Clemens: Yeah, so I haven’t seen the exact terms of Dahl’s deal with the  Rangers, but given how it’s been reported, I’d say 99% chance of 3 years of team control reamining

2:11

Ben Clemens: remaining*

2:11

Ben Clemens: You can sign contracts that waive team control and make you a free agent — see Miles Mikolas, for exmaple

2:12

Ben Clemens: But Dahl wasn’t reported to have done that, which means that he simply fits back into the existing service time structure

2:12

Ben Clemens: Which looks from his years of service like it would make him Arb 3 in 2022 and Super-2 Arb 4 in 2023

2:12

Sean Huff-Scheidel: Sadly I’ll be taking a final in about 3 minutes (good luck to everyone else who has those!) but I’m dying to know did you try Survive the Internet on Jackbox yet?

2:13

Ben Clemens: No! But we are planning on it for a gift exchange with friends we’re doin this week

2:13

Sandy: Will Realmuto still be able to double McCann’s contract with the Mets out of the market?

2:13

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think so

2:13

Guest: What do the cards do to bolster offense? Seems like a good time to bring in longer term bat to get their window started in earnest with Libatore and Gorman coming up soon

2:13

Ben Clemens: They’re going to do almost nothing

2:14

Ben Clemens: Run back a very similar team in 2021 and hope that gets there

2:14

Ben Clemens: (that’s my guess, at least)

2:14

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that makes all that much sense, but the place I want them to improve is catcher, and if they somehow don’t sign Yadi, it’s not like they’re going to go for an upgrade instead

2:14

Ben Clemens: Signing an outfielder just seems like a way to add to the uncertainty around the young talent they have, it’s not like they’re benching Fowler

2:15

John: NL Central looks like a race to cut salary.  Which team looks like the odds on favorite or is there more cutting to come ?

2:15

Ben Clemens: I’m writing about the Central for tomorow, actually

2:15

Ben Clemens: I think the favorite is probably the Cubs, just because they have the most talent remaining, but I think the Reds have a good shot as well

2:15

Ben Clemens: Honestly all four non-Pirates teams have a decent shot

2:16

Ben Clemens: But yes, via all four subtracting rather than all four adding

2:16

bighen: Seems like Mets are getting a lot of kudos for the Porter hire.  Begs the question  – why was he available at this point etc.

2:16

Guest: Do you have any thoughts re: the hire of Jared Porter? Any personal insight there?

2:16

Johnny5Alive: Jared Porter – frat bro or legit baseball mind (or both)?

2:16

Ben Clemens: I’ll be honest, I know next to nothing about Porter

2:17

Ben Clemens: Dan Haren liking him is a mark in his favor in my book, because I’m a huge Haren fan, but I just don’t know that much

2:17

Ben Clemens: I’m not really clued in on the back-room dealings of teams, and who is most and least respected behind the scenes

2:17

Ben Clemens: I’ll give it a solid ‘wait and see’ but I find it quite hard in general to handicap front office signings

2:18

Minor Quibble: Great write up today on Milb fiasco. This seems like the proverbial short-term profit fix at the expense of the long game. Does this mean MLB is just conceding that in person attendance isn’t that important to their future revenue plans?

2:18

Ben Clemens: Thanks!

2:18

Ben Clemens: I’ll admit I’m biased, because I love minor league baseball, but if you want to look at it from the league’s perspective, the number of fans they’re potentially losing (on the outside) is big but not backbreaking

2:19

Ben Clemens: I do think it’s putting short term profits over long-term viability, but there’s some NPV level where that makes sense

2:19

Ben Clemens: To be clear, I think that they’re misjudging it

2:19

Ben Clemens: But it’s not as though you get huge returns from putting a team in, say, northern Colorado

2:20

Ben Clemens: I think of minor league baseball as a public good, and from that standpoint I hate this move

2:20

Will: Will Cleveland’s name change affect the on-field product in the next few years?  Will Cleveland have more incentive to have a great team during its first few years under a new name, or are they okay risking associating the new name with mediocrity while they bulk up the farm and let go of Lindor?

2:20

Ben Clemens: Mmmm, I don’t think so

2:20

Ben Clemens: It’s not like the current name has these amazing warm feelings

2:21

Ben Clemens: They’re best known for how hard they are trying to trade their best player!

2:22

The Final Boss: Can player who were added to 40 man rosters specifically to protect them from the Rule 5 draft now be removed without consequence?

2:22

Ben Clemens: Basically, no

2:22

Ben Clemens: So to remove a player from the 40 man, you need to do one of a few things

2:22

Ben Clemens: Outright release them via non-tendering

2:22

Ben Clemens: Designate them for assignment, which puts them on waivers

2:22

Ben Clemens: Or put them on the 60-day IL

2:23

Ben Clemens: The 60-day isn’t available until the season starts

2:23

Ben Clemens: Designating for assignment allows any team to claim them

2:24

Ben Clemens: So basically to get them off the team, you have to expose them to a riskier chance of losing them than the Rule V

2:24

Sam: why dont the cards try to trade for Lindor? the have the money and the farm, Dejong can play third. And they could have his ear to sign him to a contract when all that Carpenter/Fowler money is freed up next year

2:24

Ben Clemens: They could. I think it’d make some sense. He would presumably not cost too much given Cleveland’s cash allergy

2:24

Ben Clemens: That said, they won’t, I don’t think. Mozeliak has just been harping on how much they want to cut payroll all offseason

2:25

Curtis: Going in to 2021 does it seem like there’s quite a bit of parity? I’m not a fan of expanding the playoffs but I think there’s an argument that there’s still little difference between the last team in and the last team out of the post-season.

2:25

Ben Clemens: I agree with this

2:25

Ben Clemens: I also agree with your point that there’s not a ton of difference between the last team in and first team out

2:25

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’s an argument for expanded plyaoffs, though

2:25

Ben Clemens: Imagine a league with two juggernauts and 28 exactly identical teams

2:25

Ben Clemens: There would be literally zero difference between the last team in and first team out unless you had a 2-team postseason

2:26

Ben Clemens: But the more teams you add, the less likely the great teams would be to win

2:26

Ben Clemens: Unless you do a system with byes, which I think is one option

2:26

Ben Clemens: 14 teams with first-round byes for the 1 seed in each league would be fun

2:26

Ben Clemens: ‘fun’

2:26

Moonlight Graham: How would you configure the new Red Sox outfield with Verdugo, Benintendi, and Renfroe as the starters? They were spoiled with Mookie and JBJ being plus outfielders in Fenway’s weird dimensions.

2:26

Britton: Is Hunter Renfroe an everday OF in Boston?

2:28

Ben Clemens: I think I’d go with Benintendi in center

2:28

Ben Clemens: Jason has Verdugo in center on RR, and he did play a game there in 2020 while Benny didn’t

2:29

Ben Clemens: But I don’t think the difference is huge either way. One argument in favor of using Verdugo there is that if he’s good, he’s under team control for longer

2:29

Ben Clemens: And yeah, I think Renfroe will be an everyday hitter for them at least for a bit

2:30

Ben Clemens: They should give him a chance to succeed against righties

2:30

Daniel: Ben, use your press but then freeze your tofu, then boil it for 15 minutes and press it again. In fact, some suggest the best is press, freeze, defrost, freeze, defroast (double freeze technique). Freezing Tofu turns the water into ice crystals. It’s “the best” way to handle tofu IMHO. Also… air fryer.

2:30

Ben Clemens: whoaaaaa

2:30

Ben Clemens: Never heard of this

2:30

Ben Clemens: I’ll give it a shot

2:31

Ben Clemens: Air fryer would be nice, but we don’t have the space for it in our kitchen

2:31

Ben Clemens: We have a stand mixer that we got as a wedding gift, and it’s one or the other

2:31

Zebulon: Northern Colorado is getting a team in one of the “partner leagues” or was that your point?

2:31

Ben Clemens: Yeah that’s kinda my point. That would have, I think theoretically, been an affiliated team (it’s the Orem Owlz moving) otherwise

2:32

Ben Clemens: the downgrade from affiliated to partner there might not be a huge NPV hit to MLB’s future fans going forward

2:32

Pumpsie Green: I can see the Jays not landing any of the top 4 free agents. I’m fine with that! They should be looking to pitcher upgrades in trades anyway. How about Darvish and Heyward as the Cubs try to keep downward pace with the NL Central?

2:32

Ben Clemens: If the Cubs are actually trading Darvish to cut salary, then totally yes

2:32

Ben Clemens: I truly don’t understand that rumor, particularly the part that he might not have a ton of trade value

2:33

Ben Clemens: Yu is awesome and not particularly expensive for an ace

2:33

Ben Clemens: You’re also not getting some onerous deal, three years remaining at less than 20 million per

2:34

Hugh: If Dan has sufficient experience w/chili to have authoritative opinions about it… what is your equivalent food that you can express opinions on?

2:34

Ben Clemens: Chili is up there for me!

2:34

Ben Clemens: Although homemade only

2:34

Ben Clemens: Slow-cooked chili is one of my go-tos

2:34

Ben Clemens: I would say my food I have an expert opinion on is burritos

2:34

Ben Clemens: Living in SF has really expanded my burrito horizons

2:35

Ben Clemens: But I went to all the good burrito places I could find on the East Coast too

2:35

Ben Clemens: There’s a truly outstanding place in the Bronx, Taqueria Tlaxcali, that I just can’t recommend enough

2:35

Pumpsie Green: Is Darvish better than Bauer, then? His contract will definitely be more appealing!

2:35

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’d take Darvish over Bauer for 2021

2:35

Ben Clemens: He is 34, and Bauer’s 29, so that’s a thing

2:36

Ben Clemens: But for the next year, I would prefer Darvish

2:36

45 blows billygoats: I saw where the Shandler book is already available.  How is this possible?  There’s still so much player movement to be done.  I even thought mid-January from last year was too early.  Thoughts?

2:36

Ben Clemens: I wrote blurbs for the BP annual last year and yeah, it felt weird

2:36

Ben Clemens: I had to keep them super generic because I didn’t nkow who would be where

2:37

Hugh: Okay then… favorite Mexican burrito and non-Mexican burrito… in SF?

2:38

Ben Clemens: Okay sure. El Castelito is my favorite burrito here overall, narrowly edging out la taqueria

2:39

Ben Clemens: El Castelito’s al pastor is just incredible

2:39

Ben Clemens: Don’t get somethin else if you go there

2:40

Ben Clemens: For a more SF-y take, I prefer The Little Chihuahua

2:40

Ben Clemens: THey have some funky burrito types and great salsa

2:40

Overbearing Padre: You’re AJ Preller. How will you get us a ring in 2021?

2:40

Ben Clemens: Sign a reliever and let the kids play

2:40

Hugh: you need to have senor sisig, it’s not even close

2:40

Hugh: i don’t care if SF burritos dominate this chat, the people need to know

2:41

Ben Clemens: I haven’t had it yet! Filipino burritos sound great, though

2:41

Kate: With the Astros having multiple holes to fill in the OF and possibly limited resources, why don’t they try Toro on there?

2:41

Ben Clemens: Uh, I don’t know

2:41

Ben Clemens: I’d try him there

2:42

Ben Clemens: I think they should, and honestly I think they will

2:42

Mr. Burrito: Any word on whether Seager’s desire to play SS is strong enough to prevent the Dodgers from seriously chasing Lindor? Seems like the Dodgers could go all in on a Lindor deal, and sign both Lindor and Seager, IF Seager were willing to move to 3B. In a broader sense, does this kind of thing hold up a lot of deals?

2:43

Ben Clemens: A lot of deals? I’d say no, because there aren’t that many times where a team has a potential perennial star playing the same position as another potential perennial star they’re looking to acquire

2:43

Ben Clemens: But if Seager tells the Dodgers he’s a shortstop long-term unless they bowl him over with enough money to play 3B, eh, that changes the calculus

2:44

Ben Clemens: In this specific case, I’m sure they’d consult with Seager heavily before doing it. I do think that there’s enough smoke to that rumor that there might be some fire there (him wanting to stick at short)

2:44

Johnny5Alive: If you were the Mets – spend what its going to cost on Bauer, or bring in odorizzi and sagano at probably a lower overall cost? I know you can’t rely on Thor coming back from TJS, but he should return midseason and having pitching depth can move one of the guys to the pen or keep folks fresh with a 6-man.

2:45

Ben Clemens: Generally speaking for a team with a lot of available payroll, I’d prefer to play at the top of the market and try to fill in the middle pieces later

2:45

Ben Clemens: If you don’t *have* to be efficient with every signing, I like the idea of going for a higher chance of getting a 6-8 WAR player

2:45

Ben Clemens: That said, I don’t know how big their budget actually is

2:46

Ben Clemens: I would have liked to see Realmuto plus some mid-tier pitcher types

2:46

Ben Clemens: And I think Springer plus some mid-tier pitcher types could make sense

2:46

Ben Clemens: (I’m probably the low man on Springer, which means it’s likely I’m wrong)

2:47

45 blows billygoats: I’m a fan of implementing a relegation system in baseball to reward those better managed franchises. I know TV money would be a great step up and trust that promoted teams would only benefit from it and use that $ to stay up, improve on their ballparks to generate more revenue and ultimately create a better experience for the fans. I’m tired of teams tanking for a years at a time to “rebuild”.  Is there a system where this will work or do even sucky owners have too much invested?

2:47

Ben Clemens: Yeah, never gonna happen. There aren’t any teams that could get promoted and compete due to the relationship between minors and majors, and also the owners would never vote for it

2:48

Ben Clemens: I think it could be cool, but it just wouldn’t fit within the confines of the way baseball is organized

2:48

Rollie’s Mustache: I agree with you that MLB is content to let pitchers use substances. But isn’t there a concern that Bauer’s secret sauce becomes the norm? (and why wouldn’t it, considering the results he had) I feel like such a large spike to spin rate across baseball would lead to even fewer balls in play. Or would that not be the case?

2:48

Ben Clemens: I think there’s a good argument thath Bauer’s secret sauce *is* the norm

2:48

Ben Clemens: And that he was playing with a disadvantage

2:49

Ben Clemens: Eno reported on this, if you have an Athletic subscription

2:49

Ben Clemens: I will excerpt the first line of it, which I’m confident Eno would be fine with.

2:49

Ben Clemens: “Your favorite pitcher is probably cheating.”

2:50

Some Guy: If it makes you feel better you can read the first several lines without a subscription

2:50

Ben Clemens: Excellent!

2:51

Farhandrew Zaidman: Does Gavin Lux need to play at least replacement level this year in order to avoid being labeled a bust? Defensive errors and bat-to-ball skill problems seem to be creeping up on him.

2:52

Ben Clemens: I think that’s a fair assessment

2:52

Ben Clemens: That isn’t to say that he can’t be bad this year and then subsequently good

2:52

Ben Clemens: But in terms of being labeled a bust, he’s starting to teeter there

2:52

Ben Clemens: I do not think that it’s a good thing that the Dodgers just didn’t want him, more or less, on the squad this year

2:52

Bookie Metts: What do you think has been the most underrated trade/signing we have seen so far this offseason?

2:52

Ben Clemens: I’m digging through Roster Resource right now to see if anything truly stands out

2:53

Ben Clemens: Oh, I have a good one

2:53

Ben Clemens: I think it’s Adam Eaton

2:53

Ben Clemens: People *hated* that signing

2:53

Ben Clemens: I think it’s above average

2:53

Ben Clemens: The amount of people who are just not into it surprises me

2:53

Ben Clemens: Like, sure, they could go get George Springer

2:54

Ben Clemens: Short of that, Eaton gives you most of the upside of anyone available, and is cheap and available now

2:54

Isolated Thinker: Do you think Pujols will once again platoon with Jared Walsh?  It was practically an even split between them.  They really should just start the post-Pujols era one year early and bring in a better platoon option.  Despite his salary he has no business in regular lineups.  Angel fans deserve better.  Your thoughts?

2:54

Ben Clemens: I thikn they’ll stick it out with Pujols

2:55

Ben Clemens: And honestly, I think seeing living legend Albert Pujols is kinda cool! It’s different now that it’s only one year

2:55

Ben Clemens: If they had done it three years ago, sure

2:55

Ben Clemens: Now, eh, let him take his bows

2:55

Ben Clemens: Pleeeeeease don’t bring him back after this year though

2:56

Moose_Bolton: What is your favorite minor league team name?

2:56

Ben Clemens: This is hard, because I like earnest names and gloriously silly moves both

2:56

Ben Clemens: Huge fan of the new Worcester team, the Woo Sox

2:56

Ben Clemens: (I think they’re technically the Red Sox, but w/e)

2:56

Ben Clemens: Which is good, b/c Paw Sox was an old favorite

2:57

Ben Clemens: I think the Rocket City Trash Pandas are great too

2:57

Ben Clemens: Aberdeen IronBirds are excellent

2:57

Ben Clemens: and a huge shout-out to a defunct team, the Knoxville K-Jays

2:57

Ben Clemens: They’re now the Cubs’ AA affiliate, the Tennessee Smokies, which is still fine

2:57

Ben Clemens: But htey were my childhood team

2:57

A cat: Would a JDM for Bumgarner trade make sense.

2:58

Ben Clemens: Mmm, I don’t really see it. I’m taking a look at the contracts to see if I’m missing something, but Bumgarner looked hoo boy really bad

2:58

Ben Clemens: Maybe it’s a one-year blip but he averaged 88.6 on his fastball

2:58

Ben Clemens: Yiiiiiikes

2:59

Ben Clemens: Martinez too was terrible

2:59

Ben Clemens: But to me, his underlying numbers looked far better

3:00

Ben Clemens: Also Bumgarner’s deal is longer. I think the Sox would just insta-no this one

3:00

DRB: True or False: Baseball will be as popular as boxing is now in approx 20 years.

3:00

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so. If you said 50 years, I’m more into it

3:00

Ben Clemens: But youth baseball isn’t dying in the same way that youth boxing died

3:01

Rollie’s Mustache: Have you ever brined tofu and crumbled it in place of feta cheese on salads? Or go a step further, use the leftover feta water as the brining liquid. Not bad!

3:01

Ben Clemens: I have not, but now I’m interested in trying it

3:01

Pupdates: The people would greatly enjoy a Ruby-related update

3:01

Ben Clemens: Now THIS is something I’m into answering

3:01

Ben Clemens: Ruby is at daycare today b/c my wife and I both have busy days, but she’s doing great

3:02

Ben Clemens: She’s a svelte 72 pounds of pure muscle (and fine some fat)

3:02

Ben Clemens: Still as goofy as ever, and she has picked up a penchant for sneak-attack snuglges where she lies down on your legs or feet and won’t let you move

3:03

Ben Clemens: I am trying to figure out how to post a picture in JotCast, hm

3:05

Ben Clemens: a lazy way!

3:05

Ben Clemens:

 

Ben Clemens
@_Ben_Clemens

 

What a good hiking girl:
14 Dec 2020
3:05

DRB: not gonna lie, I love tofu is more accepted today than twenty years ago.  Plant based foods =/= analytic revolution?

3:06

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m into it too

3:06

Clayton: Royals busy so far with Minor, Santana, Holland deals, is there any realistic deals that could push Royals to be a wild card contender?

3:06

Ben Clemens: Depends on what you mean by contender. I think expanding the playoffs is the main realistic thing, to be hoenst

3:06

DH for 2021: Someone (Olney?) tweeted out the league office is publicl saying that the DH most likely will not be in the NL in 2021 but that internally, teams assume it will be.  Any thoughts on where it will land?  For the record, I’m in favor of teams having guys bat who can, you know, handle a bat.

3:06

Ben Clemens: I think there will be a DH

3:07

Ben Clemens: Teams and players are both incentivized to end up there, in the end

3:07

Ben Clemens: The league is using it as a bargaining chip, but I think they will cash that chip in advance of 2021 to maximize its value

3:07

Scruffy, The Janitor: What do you think it would take to get Joe Musgrove from the Pirates?

3:07

Ben Clemens: Maybe a back of the top 100 kinda guy

3:07

Ben Clemens: I’d be tempted to do it

3:08

Ben Clemens: I hvae a long history of overrating Musgrove, but hey, I’m there again!

3:08

Eric C: Seriously, can any MILB nickname ever top the old hockey minor league squad Macon Whoopees?

3:08

Rollie’s Mustache: What’s the silliest minor league logo? Montgomery Biscuits?

3:08

Ben Clemens: The Biscuits are indeed quite good

3:08

Ben Clemens: I think they’re probably the best, yeah

3:08

Appa Yip Yip: I think the difference is that boxing died because ex boxers developed schizophrenia at a rate that makes being a linebacker look safe.

3:08

Ben Clemens: Right boxing has a unique set of downsides that baseball doesn’t

3:09

Ben Clemens: I could see baseball getting less popular, but not collapsing

3:09

Jake: Why wouldnt Ha-seong kim get 80M + if he is 25 and had great seasons and translations to the mlb last year? Do you think the mets could get him eventhough they don’t have a strong asia presence?\

3:09

Ben Clemens: I think they could, but that’s a lot of money to give up for someone who you’re relying on translations for in your evaluation

3:10

Ben Clemens: Particularly given that we know defense isn’t such a clean translation

3:10

Appa Yip Yip: If the Jays land one of their apparent big 3 targets (Springer, Realmuto, Lindor), a complementary position player (JBJ, Wong, Kim), a mid level starter, and bullpen arms, do they make a run for the AL East title?

3:10

Ben Clemens: In a word, yes.

3:10

Ben Clemens: I think they’re already dark horse contenders and adding this much would really up the ante

3:10

Ben Clemens: The Jays are my early contender for most exciting 2021 team, dethroning the Padres

3:11

Hugh: If you are Dave Dombrowski… what are the first 3 moves you make this offseason? Do you tear down? Do you try to cobble together something to get a wild-card spot?

3:11

Ben Clemens: I think you don’t bring in Dombrowski unless you’re going to try to cobble something together, right?

3:11

Ben Clemens: You don’t bring in Michael Bay to do a low-budget movie

3:12

Sodo Mojo: The Mariners are at least a year from contending are their free agents they should be targeting given their window doesn’t open until 2022?

3:12

Ben Clemens: I think so — like Paxton would be interesting for them if they can get some length on the deal

3:12

Ben Clemens: Basically pitchers

3:13

Ben Clemens: On 2-3 year deals

3:13

Ben Clemens: What I like about that is that their resale value, to coin a meaningless term, is high

3:13

Ben Clemens: If the Mariners are wrong about their window, they can be flipped

3:13

Johnny5Alive: I am an NL guy and was hesitant about the universal DH but honestly, even in the abbreviated season, I don’t know what took us so long to get here.  Granted, there is something magical when a Bartolo Colon (finally) hits a home run, but yeah, why did we let pitchers hit for so long?

3:13

Ben Clemens: Totally same

3:14

Ben Clemens: I used to think I loved pitchers hitting, and I watched that Bartolo game live (on TV, but as it was happening)

3:14

Ben Clemens: But c’mon, more good hitters is better than less good hitters

3:14

DRB: Am I off base (pun intended) by thinking MLB as a whole no longer cares about the actual game and fan experience and cares more about the money printer that it is? I’m trying to think what baseball has done to excite me in the last ten years and outside of my favorite team’s shitty performance and occasionally going to a game, I’m struggling to think of why I even enjoy this game anymore.

3:14

Ben Clemens: I think that’s a tiny bit unfair

3:14

Ben Clemens: I think baseball would prefer to have the fan experience be as good as possible

3:14

Ben Clemens: I am not sure they’re any good at makin that happen

3:15

The Final Boss: Can you imagine a situation where the Rockies let Story walk for free and retain a now even more deeply unhappy Arenado?

3:15

Ben Clemens: Nah, I think that they’d move him for salary relief at that point

3:16

GSon: akron Rubber Ducks !!

3:16

Ben Clemens: Another contender, but I think they’re more just solidly good than goofy

3:16

GSon: If you’re  a  Yankees fan.. and see that the Yankees and LaMachine are $ 25 MM apart over 5 years.. do you think about changing into your Mets gear?

3:16

Ben Clemens: Eh, let’s see what Cohen actually does first

3:16

Ben Clemens: $5mm/year isn’t the end of the world, I think the likeliest thing is that the Yankees still pay him

3:16

Bookie Metts: Which pitcher(s) do you see as the best fits on the Red Sox considering their current team and Fenway dimensions?

3:17

Ben Clemens: I guess basically righties or lefty groundballers

3:18

Ben Clemens: They’ll be a little dicey in center, and there’s the monster, so it’s probably not smart to give your opponent an incentive to start a ton of righties agianst you

3:18

Ben Clemens: Odorizzi maybe? I dunon

3:18

Appa Yip Yip: The thing about wanting pitchers to hit because players should play every facet of the game is that we don’t make all the hitters pitch one inning each because it would be an insane proposition. They don’t train for it. The argument simply falls apart.

3:19

Ben Clemens: I tend to agree with that

3:19

Ben Clemens: The counter is:

3:19

Some Guy: The DH takes so much strategy out of the game. The pitcher is up to bat in a close game, tying run on base. Do you take him out even though he is cruising? That is gone.

3:19

Ben Clemens: So yeah, I don’t like that you lose that specific thing

3:19

Ben Clemens: But I think the vast majority of pitcher removal decisions aren’t that interesting

3:19

Ben Clemens: Double switches aren’t that interesting either

3:20

Ben Clemens: I’ll take a higher level of hitting over the chance for interesting pinch hitting decisions

3:20

Ben Clemens: But I totally agree that hte specific thing you mentioned is the best part of pitchers hitting

3:20

Ben Clemens: (the part where you remove them)

3:20

A cat: Does DD make one of his overpay offers for any of his guys still on BOS – Sale, Eovaldi, JDM ( yes, again)?

3:20

Ben Clemens: Nah, I don’t think so

3:20

Ben Clemens: He might have a style that is easy to caricature, but he’s no dope

3:21

Ben Clemens: It’s not like he has a legacy of wildly overpaying when he buys

3:21

Ben Clemens: He just buys every time

3:21

jds: With MLB expansion possibly coming in the next 10 or 15 yrs, what locations do you think are front-runners? And would baseball throw a bone to some of these minor league teams that got axed?

3:21

Ben Clemens: Portland and Nashville imo

3:21

Ben Clemens: Which kind of is…. Oregon got hit a little and the poor Jackson franchise got axed completely after renovating their stadium

3:22

Tigers Fan: Kyle Tucker an all star this year?

3:22

Ben Clemens: I hope so

3:22

Ben Clemens: I’m really into Kyle Tucker for whatever reason

3:23

Dan: Is Kyle Lewis actually good or was this totally unsustainable?

3:23

Ben Clemens: Yes, and yes

3:23

Ben Clemens: I think he’s actually good, but I also don’t think he is as good as his hot streak

3:23

Ben Clemens: He doesn’t have to hit that well to be a good player, though

3:23

Eric C: The White Sox need a DH for one season until Vaughn is ready. Would an over-value one-year deal for 14 mil make sense for Michael Brantley?

3:24

Ben Clemens: Nah, I don’t think so

3:24

Ben Clemens: I’d prefer to sign a glove-first outfielder type and move Eloy to DH for a year

3:24

Ben Clemens: Or spell him at DH at least

3:24

Ben Clemens: You’ll pick up nearly as much just by getting him out of left, imo

3:24

Tigers Fan: Is Eloy Jimenez an all star this year?

3:24

Ben Clemens: Fortuitous!

3:24

Ben Clemens: I would say yes if he stays in left

3:25

Ben Clemens: AL LF is liiiiiiight

3:25

Zebulon: If Manfred retired today, what would his legacy be?

3:25

Ben Clemens: I think there would be two narratives

3:25

Ben Clemens: One, he made ownership and the league office into a well-oiled machine

3:26

Ben Clemens: Owners unified in combined self-interest in a way that previous commissioners didn’t always manage

3:26

Ben Clemens: Two, his constant view that baseball wasn’t fun will make him the commissioner who didn’t like baseball

3:26

Ben Clemens: The hunk of metal thing would figure heavily in this one

3:27

Appa Yip Yip: Gurriel Jr could be an all star in left for Cleveland after he’s traded for Lindor.

3:27

Ben Clemens: Heyo

3:27

Ben Clemens: That trade would make everyone happy, right?

3:27

Ben Clemens: Gurriel plus some neat stuff for Lindor?

3:27

Ben Clemens: Gurriel might be the real deal

3:28

Ben Clemens: He just keeps getitng better, and I think he’s mostly doing it in a way that looks sustainable

3:28

Tigers Fan: Do you think Luis Robert figures out the breaking ball this year and becomes a star?  Or is the last month of what we saw what we will see this year?

3:28

Ben Clemens: Closer to the last month, I’d say

3:28

Ben Clemens: His full-season line feels a lot like what you can expect

3:29

Ben Clemens: Tremendous CF defense, great power on contact, bat-to-ball skills are streaky, pitch recognition is not great

3:29

Ben Clemens: There’s definitely a chance he figures out pitch recognition and if he does

3:29

Ben Clemens: Look out

3:30

Ben Clemens: But he’s not Yoan Moncada where he has strikeout issues that can mostly vanish

3:30

Ben Clemens: Moncada was never hte free swinger that Robert is

3:30

Ben Clemens: and Moncada still strikes out too much!

3:30

YoungHossRadbourn: Hey Ben, What did you think were the big misses of the MiLB contraction announcement in terms of the 160 teams? Any that really surprised you?

3:31

Ben Clemens: I haven’t done enough research into this to really know, to be honest

3:31

Ben Clemens: Fresno getting jobbed down to Low-A is kinda rough, but is that worse than Jackson? I dunno

3:31

Ben Clemens: Vermont Lake Monsters as well

3:31

Ben Clemens: I know that Burlington loved having them

3:32

Ben Clemens: On that note, everyone, I’m going to call it a day. Thanks a lot for hanging out, and for all the great questions. There were surprisngly more than I could keep up with today, so I’ll try to keep up a little better next week. Have a great day!





Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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Scoreboardmember
3 years ago

@David Appelman: I submit that the next membership drive is done by each of the writers providing their favorite local burrito place with a link for readers to buy the writers a burrito/gift card.

https://www.senorsisig.com/checkout?cartToken=Z7HjAs7ajk8vJtK5hXl8bo-5cMDwyJCrZBskN1X2