Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/7/20

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, how’s it going?

Ben Clemens: Today I am knee-deep in trying to make a worse but different version of a prediction tool

Ben Clemens: To figure out if I can forecast minor leaguers’ likelihood of becoming major leaguers

Ben Clemens: It very likely won’t work, but it sure is fun

Ben Clemens: Let’s answer some quesitons about baseball!

Bill: Which young OF will be the better career offensive player…C. Pache or A. Kirilloff?  Is it close?

Ben Clemens: Oh, give me Kirilloff on offense for sure

Ben Clemens: Pache is probably going to be the better fielder, b/c have you seen him field? But Kirilloff has far better power projection

Derek: When do we get the definitive FanGraphs broadcast team rankings?

Ben Clemens: Definitive? Never

Ben Clemens: But the results of the surveys I posted?

Ben Clemens: We’re going to do a similar rating thing for radio broadcasts later this month

Ben Clemens: Then I’m going to post the results of the whole thing in a big old here’s who you should listen to and watch article series

Ben Clemens: (It’ll definitely be a series b/c I’m going to include reader comments)

Rob: I know you posted an article on the angels/orioles trade already, but with a second deal from Anaheim today, do you like the direction they are taking?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m into it

Ben Clemens: I don’t know who the PTBNL is

Ben Clemens: And that can change it, naturally, but I think it makes sense to keep pushing for 2021, and both of these trades do that at reasonable cost

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’ll miss Noe Ramirez’s extra years of team control that much

Steve: Who’s number 1 and why is Keith, Gary and Ron on SNY?

Ben Clemens: No freebies!

Ben Clemens: But GKR are absolutely MY favorite broadcast team

Mike Hawk: Does Tork stick at 3B or does he move across the diamond long term?

Ben Clemens: Across the diamond for SURE

Ben Clemens: He played third base a combined zero times across his years at ASU

Ben Clemens: He played third a combined zero times in two seasons on the cape

Ben Clemens: The Tigers can announce whatever they want but I don’t think it will make him a third baseman

JordanHicks’UCL: So for your new prediction of MiLB players making it to the show, how can you factor in the likelihood of trades? Seems like a very unpredictable variable that could change from team to team

Ben Clemens: Oh it’s not that at all, because yeah, no idea how to do that

Ben Clemens: It just looks at, say, lines in AA or lo-A or whatever, and tries to predict the likelihood of a player with those statistics at that level and age reaching the majors

Derek: Lol it was hilarious when Torkelson got announced as a third baseman at the draft. Was there an actual reason the Tigers did that? I’m kind of convinced they were just trolling.

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m willing to htink they HOPE he becomes a third baseman

Ben Clemens: That’d be a big deal, to get that bat at third

Ben Clemens: It’s just not likely

Lefty: If you were GM of an expansion franchise, could you win more by making your ballpark cavernous and then look for fast line drive hitters?

Ben Clemens: Probably, but I think it would be marginal. “Fast line drive hitters” aren’t exactly undervalued

Ben Clemens: And I also think that most teams wouldn’t be willing to move fans farther from the action for marginal benefit

Dan: Silly hypothetical. What happens if a good player is dead set on a team that doesn’t have a spot for them. Cruz tell his agent he’s only signing with Orioles and wants a no trade clause. This is a secret so he still have the same leverage as in the real world he just really like crab cakes. Or Realmuto decides he only wants to play for the Athletics? How much would he have to leave on the table?

Ben Clemens: I think it kind of depends on which team, but let’s think about these two hypotheticals

Ben Clemens: If Nelson Cruz only wants to play for the Orioles and wants a no-trade clause, well, they didn’t pay Hanser Alberto the $2.3 million we estimated in arb

Ben Clemens: So, not more than that!

Ben Clemens: He’d be leaving a ton of money on the table

Ben Clemens: Realmuto to the A’s? That one’s trickier. I tihnk they would probably be willing to pay something in the $15-20 million range, after all they guaranteed that to Khris Davis and he’s off the books after this year

Ben Clemens: So maybe he signs for 5/18 or something? I think that one leaves less on the table

Raisel Iglesias: If the Angels would trade for a 9 million reliever why not just claim Brad Hand?

Ben Clemens: I like Iglesias more than hand, and the costs aren’t significantly different

Ben Clemens: That said, I probably would have done both

Todd: Do the Reds recent moves of non-tendering Bradley and trading Iglesias make a Sonny Gray trade seem that it’s more likely to happen than not?

Ben Clemens: I believe so, yes

Ben Clemens: The Reds seemed like they were building for 2020 to me

Toobs: Do you think Josh Naylor or Robbie Ray provides more value in 2021?

Ben Clemens: Give me Ray, because I think he will get some gains from reverting to his old pitching motion

Ben Clemens: And I’m just yet another baseball analyst who is enamored with Ray

Sammi Meatballs: My friend, John, thinks Jo Adell is Byron Buxton 2.0 but won’t admit it.  What says you?

Mike Hawk: Is Jo Adell Byron Buxton 2.0?

Ben Clemens: Hm, what are the odds!

Ben Clemens: But uh, I’ll accept the broad comparison

Ben Clemens: In that both are hyped outfielders who are more toolsy than productive on offense

Ben Clemens: But Adell’s floor is a LOT lower than Buxton’s, in that he isn’t one of the best outfield defenders in the game

Ben Clemens: I think it’s too soon to say, and I just don’t think Adell was ready for the bigs last year, which is hardly a knock on him. He has 132 career PA at Triple-A and he didn’t look great there

Ben Clemens: Let him play in the minors a bit longer, imo

Guest: Brian Cashman has had a noted affinity for Kyle Schwarber. With him being non tendered, do the Yankees force his way into the depth chart? I can see them selling high on Clint Frazier (finalist for GG) and using Schwarber as a fail safe. (I’m not on board with that logic for the record.

Sodo Mojo: Where do you think Schwarber lands and what do you think he should look for in his next desitnation?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the Yankees really have a spot for him

Ben Clemens: They just have too many iffy-position players or guys who could use the day off rotating through DH

Ben Clemens: And it’s not as though they’re light at corner outfield or first base

Ben Clemens: Also haha finalist for Gold Glove is not going to be valued by front offices

Ben Clemens: But yeah, I think a more likely landing place for Schwarber (and my personal favorite) is a one-year deal with Kansas City

Ben Clemens: Dayton Moore keeps talking about how he wants a middle-of-the-order high OBP bat

Ben Clemens: Schwarber would probably prefer to re-establish his value before dipping into long-term free agency

Ben Clemens: Match  made in heaven

Johnny5Alive: Lets say the Mets whiff on Springer.  Would you rather move Nimmo to left and get one of Dahl/Almora for a more legitimate CF, or do you keep Nimmo in CF and get a bat for left like Rosario or Duvall.  Or do you do something else entirely?

Ben Clemens: I’d be a LOT more interested in Dahl than Almora, personally

Ben Clemens: I’m just kind of out on the Albert Almora experience in general

Ben Clemens: I’d prefer that, moving Nimmo and trying Dahl, than making Nimmo play up in center and ALSO getting a middling corner guy like Rosario or Duvall

Ben Clemens: If they could get a stud corner guy it’d be different but I just don’t think the upgrade is worth the defensive downgrade there

JordanHicks’UCL: Would Schwarber make an impact in St. Louis? Seems like they need more of a true impact player (Marcell Ozuna) to make a difference and clear up their outfield problem

Ben Clemens: Kind of depends on the universal DH, but I don’ think that Schwarber is the answer there as an everyday outfielder

Ben Clemens: He’s probably a little bit better than Fowler/O’Neill, but he’s just more of the same logjam unless they have a DH slot for him

Chris: Ben why isn’t the max and average throwing speed of fielders from 2020 available pubically? I want to know what player at each position throw the hardest

Ben Clemens: I really want to know too!

Ben Clemens: But yeah, I don’t see it anywhere

Ben Clemens: I once wrote an article about Marcell Ozuna’s extremely weak throwing arm, and I had to scrape through articles written on MLB.com to see where they’d mentioned the data points

Ben Clemens: It exists but isn’t public

Garret: Will Rowdy Tellez really be pushed out of a starting role after his great run before the injury?

Ben Clemens: He’s gonna get everyday reps, I think. Hard not to find a way to squeeze him in given how well he was hitting

NL_DH: Fans want it.  Players want it.   Total ownership $$ impact will be marginal for the added DH-types.  And yet owners continue to hold it out as a “chip” to be negotiated.   thoughts on where this ends up?

Ben Clemens: I think that it and expanded playoffs (in some form) will both end up being the case in 2021

Ben Clemens: I’m not super happy about that, but just b/c it has no cost to the owners doesn’t mean it isn’t leverage

Ben Clemens: the players will give something up for it

Derek: Are you going to play Cyberpunk 2077?

Ben Clemens: I think I’m actually going to wait for the next-gen release, though maybe that’s silly

Ben Clemens: I was lucky enough to get a PS5 (my wife was very fast on the jump at WalMart)

Ben Clemens: And I think I’d prefer to play a version optimized for next-gen

Ben Clemens: So early next year?

Lefty: Is a healthy Matt Chapman the equal of Brooks Robinson defensively?

Ben Clemens: These are fun comparisons to make. I think generally speaking I’m hesitant to compare to someone I never got to watch play (Brooks), but it seems that way?

Ben Clemens: Chapman’s defense feels to me like slightly better Scott Rolen

Ben Clemens: And that’s high praise

Guest: If not Cyberpunk 2077, what are you playing now?

Derek: Isn’t the next-gen release also this week?

Ben Clemens: Eh, it’s an upscaled version of the last-gen release, there’s supposed to be a more truly next-gen version later

Ben Clemens: And what am I playing now? Ghost of Tsushima, which is also just upscaled from PS4, lol

Ben Clemens: I’ve never said I’m principled

Frah: Who is the most likely to rebound in 2021… Sano or Gallo?

Ben Clemens: Gimme Gallo, but I think they’re both likely to rebound

Christian Colón for Men: Which 2020 team with a losing record makes the 2021 playoffs (assume pre-2020 playoff format)?

Ben Clemens: Eh, let’s go Angels, because that would be fun

DRB: Are next generation consoles too advanced for those who program the games? Just got the new madden, and the gameplay is just so wonky.

Ben Clemens: I think generally the game companies (particularly non in-house studios) just need time wiht the new console to figure out what it can do

Ben Clemens: Past console generations have followed a similar pattern

Frah: Btw do you ever play Overwatch? If so who do you main

Ben Clemens: Nah, never played

Lefty: Speaking of games, in your opinion, if you could only own one baseball strategy game (tabletop or computer), which one would you want?

Ben Clemens: I would take OOTP

Ben Clemens: Because of the sheer flexibility and number of different things you can do

Ben Clemens: Honorable mention goes to Strat-o-Matic, which is absolutely my favorite game to play if you’re only going to play it, say, 10 times, or 100 times

Ben Clemens: But if it’s only one forever, OOTP just offers more playability

Bubba: With MLB saying there will be no universal DH, Nimmo has to stay in CF, right?  So that Smith can play LF?

Ben Clemens: It’s a real logjam. It’s entirely possible to see them trying to get 4 spots worth of PA’s out of Nimmo, Smith, Alonso, Conforto, and whichever CF they sign

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’d be terrible

Ben Clemens: Assuming no DH

Ben Clemens: It’s wasteful but not as much as you’d think, there are benefits to keeping everyone fresh

Toshi: How likely will it be that we’ll see 162 games in 2021?

Ben Clemens: I would guess closer to 150, but I truly have NO idea on this one

Ben Clemens: I’m just making it up

Ben Clemens: I have as much info on it as you do, presumably

Frah: I feel like many prospects have lost hype in 2020 but it seems quite high on Torkelson still. Do you see any reason to justify it?

Ben Clemens: I mean, his hype is probably roughly where it was before the draft given that he didn’t play afterwards? And I think this is just an artifact of there not being an MiLB season. I think that the hype will return to normal levels in 2021 unless I’m missing something

Evan: Who’s making the Hall of Fame this year?

Ben Clemens: I think I’ll actually say no one. I think Rolen has an okay shot, but no one seems like the safe bet

DRB: Do you think pre-draft velo is less important than it ever was because teams can just create a program to get a kid to throw with more velo with proper training? Is thee any known limits on how much velo a kid can gain?

Ben Clemens: Well, yes and no. Yes because of the reason you said — teams are getting better at teaching velocity. No because college and high school kids are increasingly already using those methods. It’s not a binary yes/no, it depends a lot on teams looking at a player and estimating whether they think they can add velo

Ben Clemens: Like if you see a guy who throws 93 but is already training at Driveline and using a velo-maximizing delivery

Ben Clemens: You probably shouldn’t project him to hit 99

Ben Clemens: On the other hand, some raw high schooler hitting 93 but with changeable mechanics, maybe that’s more interesting

ChaimB: So I am in a big market. Our tv ratings are down. We just traded the best player we’ve had perhaps ever. Why wouldn’t I sign Springer?

Brad of The Rip Griffin Show: What moves do you feel the Red Sox making

Ben Clemens: Best player the Red Sox have had perhaps ever feels like a strong statement

Ben Clemens: They’ve had both Babe Ruth and Ted Williams!

Ben Clemens: But yeah, from a baseball standpoint I totally agree

Ben Clemens: I think it’s more of an ownership decision than a GM decision, though

Ben Clemens: I think they’re gonna keep small-balling it, no big additions, maybe trade another contract

Appa Yip Yip: White Sox (say they) are out on Springer because they don’t think he’s a center fielder. Do you agree with them?

Ben Clemens: I brought this up in a previous chat, though I’m not sure which one

Ben Clemens: I think Springer is already borderline in CF

Ben Clemens: and that if you think he’s a serviceable CF for more than 1 year on average, you’re probably higher on his defense than I am

Ben Clemens: Now, he’s still a nice corner bat and glove

Ben Clemens: But generally speaking, I don’ think he’ll stick in center very long, and I’d 100% keep Robert there over him

Red Sox: Re: Red Sox a lot of people forget Bloom isn’t the GM, rather Brian OHallahoran or whatever his name is. However, Bloom gets all the press and attention. Does anybody know how much of a say OHallawhatever actually has compared to Bloom?

Ben Clemens: Oh right, President of Baseball Operations or Team President or something

Ben Clemens: Honestly, I don’t know how much input GM’s have in teams with super-GM positoins.

Ben Clemens: Probably a good question for Ken Rosenthal or Jeff Passan or someone with access to ask those guys

Ben Clemens: I’m a lowly guy on the internet who writes articles about regressions

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Torkelson was supposed to be announced as a third batsman. You know, the guy who bats third. There was a miscommunication somewhere.

Ben Clemens: Naturally, naturally

Chris: You said you think the season will be 150 games, and that teams aren’t wanting to give the players the dh unless they get something. Isn’t a handful of games the trade-off? What’s the number of games that equal 15 new jobs?

Ben Clemens: Sorry, I’m not exactly sure what the trade is here

Ben Clemens: Who’s offering who what in exchange for what?

Ben Clemens: I thikn both the owners and the players want to play as many games as possible, and that they simply might not be able to

Andoru: Where do you think Tomoyuki Sugano lands and how do you see him performing in the bigs?

Ben Clemens: I personally don’t have a great feel for it

Ben Clemens: However, Eric did a board update with reports and scouting grades and such on everyone who might come over

Ben Clemens: Which you can find here:

Ben Clemens: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/su…

Reader: Favorite baseball book?

Ben Clemens: Probably Dollar Sign on the Muscle, I just found it fascinating

Ben Clemens: If we’re going for more of a good writing style thing, something by Roger Angell

Guest: Do you see the Rays trading Adames once Franco makes to the big league team? Or will they try to move one of them to another position?

Ben Clemens: I see them trading him, because I think he’s kind of a weird fit at third

Ben Clemens: But that’d be the other option

Scout: How young is too young for a kid to start getting scouted

Ben Clemens: This is probably more of a question for Eric, but I’ll try to answer it anyway.

Ben Clemens: Actually, eh, no I won’t

Ben Clemens: Changed my mind

Ben Clemens: I find the hwole process of scouting high schoolers weird perios

Ben Clemens: Period*

Ben Clemens: So I’m the wrong person to ask

64 Slices of American Cheese: Play Demon’s Souls, Ben. It took me 9 hours to beat the tutorial boss, but by golly is it pretty

Ben Clemens: Hard to disagree with that ringing endorsement

Ben Clemens: But seriously that’s my next game most likely

Sam: Cards likely to look at Ha-Seong Kim? A lot cheaper than Lindor and could bring some pop with room left for Joc and save the prospects

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so. Seems weird to move DeJong off of short for a maybe

Jake: Mets fan here. Is it right to be very concerned with George Springer’s aging and potential fit on the mets. He is a year + older than bauer and realmuto and would be kicking nimmo or conforto out of a corner next year and thee OF defense would still not be great. Meanwhile I think SPs age much better and a realmuto being a year younger and a catcher will also age better and thus rank them: realmuto > bauer > springer

Ben Clemens: I rank them that way, but I don’t see a problem with people who have Springer higher

Ben Clemens: I’m not an infallible arbiter of defensive value, and I definitely don’t have all the data that teams do

Ben Clemens: Springer does seem like a weird fit for the Mets, to me personally, but if they sign him, they clearly disagree with me on that

Chatter: Would puig be a good fit in miami?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I like that. They really need outfielders

Johnny5Alive: Given his struggles in NY last time, should the Mets look into Sonny Gray? They need pitching.  And with the Reds tipping their hand that they are trying to unload salary, what would a return be?

Ben Clemens: Hm, he’s ont he books for basically 2/20, which would be a crazy bargain. Maybe Dom Smith plus a prospect? Even if the Reds are trying to unload salary, they’ll have leverage, Gray is a good pitcher who many teams will want

Ben Clemens: But I’m not good at making up trade returns on the fly so, eh

Sam: You think Dejong has more truly solid years ahead? I know Covid had an effect this year, but I never really bought into him as a consistent high producer

Ben Clemens: Let me put it this way: I’ll take DeJong’s 2021 production over Kim’s straight up

Ben Clemens: Steamer seems to agree, they project DeJong for a 105 wRC+

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’s a year-in year-out All Star but he’s a nice player on a reasonable deal

Derek: Has Moneyball reached the point of being so popular that it’s uncool for someone to call it their favorite? Michael Lewis is a great writer, and that book is fun and engaging in addition to all the groundbreaking, actual *moneyball* stuff. Not sure if it’s my favorite either, but it’s definitely up there!

Ben Clemens: I’d argue that it’s fine to pick Moneyball as long as you’re not picking it for the OBP stuff

Ben Clemens: My biggest beef with that book is that everyone looks at the things Beane did as the lesson

Ben Clemens: ‘hunt for OBP, ignore scouts’

Ben Clemens: rather than his method, which was basically to seek objecdtivity and quantification to hunt for edges

Ben Clemens: Michael Lewis is an awesome writer

Ben Clemens: But Moneyball is just too tied up with the OBP stuff for me to enjoy it as much as I used to

Ben Clemens: Copout of an answer, I know

See! You! Later!: Shouldn’t teams stop going after toolsy center field prospects with a low hitting floor? It feels like a lot of the highly touted ones like Buxton and Robles are struggling.

Ben Clemens: I agree that it’s an overrated prospect type on the whole, but you can see what teams are doing

Ben Clemens: The hitting floor is low, but hte fielding floor tends to be high

Ben Clemens: Also, Buxton’s biggest problem has always been injury, not hitting

Ben Clemens: Hitting is a secondary weakness, but even then he’s been worth nearly 9 WAR in 1500 PA, which is a totally acceptable pace

Ben Clemens: I think that prospects like that are much riskier than is generally accepted

Ben Clemens: Particularly if they’re of the Robles/Magneuris Sierra type

Ben Clemens: Or Xavier Edwards, though he’s not a center fielder (yet)

Ben Clemens: The guys who have no power and no power projection

Alabama Hot Pocket: So, Iglesias is the Angels’ closer, right?

Ben Clemens: Have to assume so unless they do some further bullpen bolstering

Ben Clemens: Like, if they sign Liam Hendriks, no

Ben Clemens: But he’s the leader among the current members of the team

Lefty: Would you be concerned with a college baseball coach that lets his starters throw 130+ pitches multiple times in a season even on a 7-day rotation?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I would be

Ben Clemens: Is this UVa or something? I don’t really keep up with the ins and outs of specific college coach philosophies

Lefty: Sonny Gray’s and David Price’s college coach

Ben Clemens: Oh is he still at Vandy?

Lefty: Kumar Rocker–133 pitches in 2 starts

Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t think that’s great. I don’t think pitch count is a perfect blunt tool

Ben Clemens: But it’s not a BAD tool either

Rusty Trombone: No universal DH in 2021 makes me sad…….I understand that a lot of people love the strategy involved, and double-switches and such, but the prospect of having to watch pitchers hit again, while also getting accustomed to higher workloads after the short season, leaves a lot to be desired.  Boo!

Ben Clemens: Makes me sad too

Ben Clemens: I liked the universal DH. Does anyone actually *like* double switches?

Ben Clemens: What is there to like?

Ben Clemens: The only time double switches enter my consciousness is when the manager of a team I like does one wrong

Ben Clemens: It only brings sadness, never joy

Ben Clemens: There’s a place for sadness in everyday life, but why there specifically??

Romy White: Torkelson just sounds like a baseball player

Ben Clemens: Totally agree

Cambodian Creamsicle: In your opinion, do you think Ohtani pitches in 2021?  If yes, do you think he pitches well?

Ben Clemens: I think that he will not pitch in 2021. If he does pitch, I think he’ll be just regular Ohtani — above average pitcher

Ben Clemens: Maybe with less feeling for his split than normal?

Ben Clemens: But if I’m the Angels I’m almost ready to give up on the experiment and just make him either a DH or a pitcher

Derek: How many more Iglesiases are there for the Angels to acquire?

Ben Clemens: They should probably acquire Ryan Church just to be safe

Ben Clemens: He’ll probably be chepa given that he retired ten years ago

Glass-Bottom Boat: Do you think that having/not having a universal DH plays into decisions of free agent pitchers and where they sign?  Obviously, it affects hitters like Schwarber, Cruz, Franimal, but wondered if pitchers care whether or not they have to pitch to another professional hitter over a pitcher.

Ben Clemens: Eh, it might be a tiebreaker. I think they’d probably take $1mm/year over it, though

Ben Clemens: So probably a pretty small tiebreaker

Ben Clemens: Like, far lower than comfort with a city or pitching coach

Moose_Bolton: You mentioned a couple of weeks ago that you play Magic: The Gathering. Do you use Arena, or Magic Online? What formats do you play?

Ben Clemens: Yes to both (Arena is a nice way to goof off for 15 minutes to reset my brain), but I’m playing again b/c I met someone in SF who built a proxied Vintage Cube

Ben Clemens: So we would just meet in person once a week or so and draft it

Ben Clemens: Obviously COVID has thrown a wrench in that

Ben Clemens: But someday!

Mr. Fister: Does Michael A. Taylor get a full season’s at bats, or is it a Taylor/Franchy platoon?  Also, wouldn’t Dahl make a ton of sense for KC?

Ben Clemens: Dahl would as well. I think Dahl will have a lot of suitors

Ben Clemens: And yeah, I see a Franchy/MAT platoon personally

Frah: Do you make anything of Franchy Cordero’s crazy improved 93% Z-Contact% and 81% Contact% with outstanding xAVG and xSLG in a small sample in 2020? I think he’s an underrated breakout candidate

Ben Clemens: Speaking of Franchy:

Ben Clemens: Definitely not readin too much in to his 2020, he had 34 batted balls all year

Ben Clemens: He actually had his lowest xwOBACON (delicious bacon)

Ben Clemens: He just struck out 9.5% of the tie instead of 40% of the time

Ben Clemens: But not really in enough PA’s to feel very confident in it

Ben Clemens: I’m still in on Franchy if he can improve the K%, but nothing in 2020 says much either way

Ben Clemens: To be clear, I’d totally give him a lot of PT to find out, though

Appa Yip Yip: Springer makes more sense for the Jays because they can just slide him into the outfield, but Realmuto is more fun because suddenly there will be TrAdEs. 6 catchers on the 40 man? Too many.

Appa Yip Yip: Let’s say the Jays do sign Realmuto, what would they be able to get with all that surplus catching?

Ben Clemens: Trading catching prospects is hard, b/c of their high failure rate. I’ve been interested in doing a study on this, but never quite found the time to, but I tihnk catching prospects command too little in trade

Ben Clemens: That said, probably some mixture of Jansen and McGuire gets you decent controllable pitchin back

Intentional K?: Bases loaded, bottom half of extra inning game.  down one run, one out. pitcher batting (no more hitting subs on bench).  would you let the pitcher swing the bat?  DP risk, plus wont let the ondeck batter get up.  Feel like have never actually seen this happen in practice. Could also see similar situation earlier in game too where dont want to take starter out in 3rd inning or whatever.  I would guess there is a breakeven here somewhere based on the individual pitcher hitting skills?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think it depends on the pitcher’s htiting skills

Ben Clemens: If it’s a complete zero, I would not let him swing the bat. If it’s Greinke, I think I’m in

Depressed Philly Fan: If the Phillies do end up blowing it up, what’s a realistic package look like for Nola?

Ben Clemens: I refuse to answer this question because there’s just no sense in blowing up the Phillies

Ben Clemens: I just don’t get it at all

Ben Clemens: I think that rebuilding right now would cost them a ton of franchise value in the long run

Ben Clemens: Because they spent so long building to this and convinced fans they were just waiting to get big again

Ben Clemens: If their ‘get big’ is 2 years of missing the playoffs and anonymously telling reporters that they’re afraid of the Dodgers

Ben Clemens: What’s the payoff to keep following THIS rebuild?

Norm: What would it take for the Tigers to get Danny Jansen? Is Boyd, Faedo, and a 40 FV close?

Ben Clemens: I think that does it if the Blue Jays like Boyd

Ben Clemens: He seems like a guy with variable value from team to team

Ben Clemens: I could see some teams seeing him as an ace in need of tweaking and some as a lost cause

Ben Clemens: (poetic license in my exact descriptions, but you know what I mean)

Ben Clemens: Let’s try this: I could see some teams thinking he’s worse than Spencer Turnbull and some teams thinking he’s meaningfully better

v2micca: I swear every Cub fan I talk to thinks that the fact that they gave up Torres for 3 months of Chapman is more than enough justification for some other team to give them 3 top quality prospects for an entire year of Bryant.  Any thoughts on how to prep them for reality?

Ben Clemens: I think you just show them the Mookie Betts trade and ask whether they think Bryant is better than Betts

Ben Clemens: Not that he’s WAY worse or a lock to be terrible or anything remotely approaching that

Ben Clemens: But I’d obviously take Betts, and his return wasn’t 3 top quality prospects

Stevil: Am I wrong to think Oakland could be a dark-horse on Kim? Also curious if you’re familiar with the extension pieces for Carcassonne, and if so, if you recommend them.

Ben Clemens: You are not wrong. That makes a lot of sense to me

Ben Clemens: As for Carcassonne, never played the extension pieces. The game is so well-implemented in the base version though that I assume a lot of thought has gone into the extensions (assuming the same developer published it)

Sean Huff-Scheidel: What are your top 3 Jackbox games? I’ve found Survive the Internet an underrated powerhouse

Ben Clemens: Okay, so, I don’t know the names of all of them exactly, so bera with me

Ben Clemens: I like the Saw-esque one

Ben Clemens: I love Drawful

Ben Clemens: I’ve never played Survive the Internet, but I’m intrigued

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays are already rehabbing Robbie Ray on a year they want to contend don’t see them grabbing another project in Boyd

Ben Clemens: That’s definitely a consideration. I don’t think Ray is as much of a project as Boyd, in that he was fine after going to Toronto and reverting to his old mechanics

Ben Clemens: But they’d have to think Boyd was really good to make that trade

Ben Clemens: I do not share that view, but certainly some analysts do

Ben Clemens: Paging Alex Fast 🙂

Derek: The Devils and the Details is so much fun with 8 friends. It’s just total madness

Ben Clemens: At that point I’d be tempted to just play Among Us, but that’s another Jackbox one I should still try

Andoru: What do you think a package for Snell would look like, coming from the Angels?

Ben Clemens: Uh, I can’t think of one off the top of my head, to be honest. I see the Rays as wanting to get someone who they can use immediately in return, because it seems weird to trade Snell for future value only. That said, I probably wouldn’t be trading Snell either, so maybe I’m thinking about it wrong

Ben Clemens: But would you trade Adell for Snell? Maybe! Snell has three years left at $13m per, more or less. That’s crazy value for someone of his talent

Ben Clemens: And you know, specifically, that he’s going to turn out to be Blake Snell. Your risk is the same as any player, injury and whatnot

Ben Clemens: Whereas Adell’s risk is that he just doesn’t pan out (he’s 21 so it’s way too soon to say obv)

Sean: Can you do an expansion draft?

Ben Clemens: Like, where we do a hypothetical expansion team? I’m not gonna rule it out but it sounds like a lot of work (figuring out hypothetical protections and stuff) in exchange for a small payoff

Guest: How valuable are the historic rights to Babe Ruth? If the Phillies traded Zach Wheeler to the Yankees in exchange for the historical narrative that Babe Ruth was traded from the Red Sox to the Phillies and the Phillies get all of his individual stats (but no additional World Championships) who comes out ahead? Can you imagine the number of red #3 shirseys you’d see in Philadelphia? He’d be an instant icon in the city!

Ben Clemens: Would this retroactively mess with people’s brains to where they remembered Ruth as a Ted WIlliams-esque Phillie?

Ben Clemens: If so, wow, it’d be tremendously valuable

Ben Clemens: If it’s just happening in the present dya, it’s worth zero dollars imo

v2micca: I think it fair to say that Sean Newcomb could use a change of scenery.  Which coaching staff do you think has the best chance of reviving his career?

Ben Clemens: I’ve really liked what Minnesota is doing with pitchers, but probably the answer is Tampa or Cincy

Ben Clemens: Just want to give a shout out to the Twins before going with chalk

Ben Clemens: Gonna head out in 5 minutes, so let’s do a lightning round of questions where I give brief and poorly-thought-through answers

Ben Clemens: Fun!

ThanksTheo: Who are you more excited to root for this year: Financial Flexibility or Cash Considerations?

Ben Clemens: Financial Flexibility by a hair

Appa Yip Yip: Snell recently said he really didn’t want to be traded, but did anyone think he was going to finish that contract in Tampa?

Ben Clemens: I did! It’s so cheap that he could anchor it, and it doesn’t escalate as much as I expected. If Kiermaier can do it Snell can too

Mike: Do you think the Mets will hold off making a major signing before getting a GM?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Hindsight: What could the Red Sox have done differently to keep Kookie Betts

Ben Clemens: Seems like the obvious answer is simply not traded him last offseason

Ben Clemens: That would do the trick

Drew Haugen: What’s your guess on the biggest surprise team in 2021?

Ben Clemens: Jays win AL East

C@$hman: I have $30M to spend. What’s better for the team: Lemahieu and Tanaka or Didi Gregorius and

Ben Clemens: DJLM and Masa

Garret: It seems everyone’s writing off Arraez but he did have improved hard hit rate and launch angle… What are the odds he hits double digit HR in 2021 and if so how valuable would he be?

Ben Clemens: I’m not off Arraez yet

Ben Clemens: Still love the profile, he hits the ball so dang hard

Matt: How valuable is continuity in a coaching staff and/or front office? On average, do teams stick with failing coaches too long, are they took quick to make a change, or about right? Same for GMs.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s most valuable in the front office

Ben Clemens: But def also valuable in coaching

Ben Clemens: I think that teams are too quick to make a change with coaches, about right on GM’s

Derek: Lol we have tended to use Jackbox as a palate cleanser from Among Us, but yes really can’t go wrong with either!

Ben Clemens: I haven’t played much Among Us but I always have a great time

Mike Rizzo: What moves should I make?

Ben Clemens: I think you’ve done a pretty good job! Go with your gut, it’s been working

doug: what’s your craziest off season prediction? mine is Bauer to angels

Ben Clemens: Adrian Beltre unretires to try to lead the Rangers back to the playoffs

Brad of The Rip Griffin Show: Where do you think that Jackie Bradley Jr. ends up?

Ben Clemens: Detroit for no good reason

Tokomo: Max Stassi probably won’t be close to as good as 2020 in full-time reps in 2021, will he?

Ben Clemens: Hm…. no

Guest: Eh, are you Canadian?

Ben Clemens: Hm…. no

Dinkelberg!: How much of Austin Meadows 2020 decline can be attributed to COVID/injuries and how much just natural regression from a huge season?

Ben Clemens: I can’t give you percentages on each but it’s yes to both

Mike Rizzo: Are Kieboom, Garcia, Cavalli, Rutledge part of my future?

Ben Clemens: Yes, no, yes, yes? Guessing

Some Guy: When do you think the hot stove will heat up?

Ben Clemens: January. I think we need more season certainty

Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, I’m out of here. Thanks so much for stopping by to chat today. Let’s do it again next week!