Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 2/13/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I’m going to keep it short today, as I have some important dog-related business (it’s a walk) to get to in about 45 minutes, but I’ll try to answer as much as I can in that time

Greg: Is there any possible reason Ozzie Albies continues to switch hit? He’s a great hitter from the right side and not good from the left side with plenty of sample size at this point. Why continue to do this? Player comfort, teams not wanting to push for him to give it up?

Ben Clemens: Player comfort is my guess

Ben Clemens: I’m totally with you, I think he’d be better served as a righty if he’s capable of reasonable AB’s against righties

JJ: If you were the Padres looking to find another starter before the season began, what type of trades/players would you be exploring? Possibly moving Kim in return?

Ben Clemens: I’d try to sign Michael Wacha

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to trade from depth when one of the really appealing things about the Padres lineup is depth

Todd Bonzalez: Does expansion make it more difficult for teams to hold cities/regions hostage for stadiums/ development/funding?

Ben Clemens: I think it does, and I think there’s a reason that MLB has held off on moving teams

Ben: If a veteran player such as Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, or Andrelton Simmons has an impressive showing at the World Baseball Classic, do you think they could turn that into another MLB opportunity?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I completely think so

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s an accident that they’re timing it the way they did

Chip: Now that the ‘ghost runner’ rule is now permanent, I would like to point out that it irrationally annoys me that people call it a ‘ghost runner’. Ghost runners are when you have an imaginary person on base because you don’t have enough players to play. The person put on second in extra innings is, in fact, very real and not imaginary at all. Therefore that person is not actually a ‘ghost’ in any meaningful sense of the word.

Sirras: Any major impact on game strategy that you expect form today’s competition committee rule changes? For anybody who missed this minor item:runner on 2nd in extras has been made permanent (often called the ghost runner, the Manfred man, or, if you’re Ben Lindberg, the zombie runner) and position players pitching is limited to situations where you are 10 runs ahead or 8 runs behind.

Ben Clemens: Ben Lindbergh would love to hear you say this

Ben Clemens: I agree, not a ghost but a zombie

Tom: Hi Ben. I’ve really enjoyed your work testing the accuracy of EV percentiles as a predictor of performance/breakouts. Is there anywhere you can access this granular EV data for minor leaguers, aside from their avg and max EVs? I’ve wondered it is even more significant for prospects, given their typically lower avg EV, and presumably wider variance given their relative lack of physical strength and in-the-box immaturity regarding zone/chase/etc. Thanks.

Ben Clemens: Not publicly, no

Ben Clemens: The way to do it is to find some people on a team and ask them for it

Ben Clemens: Which is a frustrating answer, I’m aware

Who’s Fabio: Hi Ben – you mentioned skiing in Revelstoke last week.  If you go there definitely make your way to Golden’s Kicking Horse as well.  Those are the most aggressive resorts in BC.

Ben Clemens: Good to know. I don’t know when we’ll do this trip but I really do want to do it

Tstats: Ben, what do you think about guys who throw slider that move on average more arm than glove side? Cory Abbott, Familia, Tim Mayza, all have this type of slider. I can’t pinpoint the cause

Ben Clemens: I think what this basically means is that they throw a gyroball

Ben Clemens: I think gyro sliders are perfectly good pitches, though they work for different reasons than regular sliders

Yaki: If Vaughn Grissom improves enough defensively to handle SS, is there really much difference between him and Wander Franco?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Talfred: Do you believe there is a “change of scenery” effect, or is it just a dumb thing we say when we don’t know why a player isn’t producing as expected? Are you aware of any research that suggests underperforming players are more likely to improve if they change teams?

Ben Clemens: While I have not seen any evidence to that effect, it makes perfect sense to me

Ben Clemens: not that a change of scenery magically cures them

Ben Clemens: but that it feels like a better bet that something will click when new coaches get involved, and they can live in a new place, deal with different people, etc

Sharp: I was watching a game from 1988 on the MLB Great Games channel on Pluto TV and the announcers were bemoaning how guys were “unable to put the ball in play” when a particular player struck out with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs. Some topics are evergreen lol

Dave: Pardon my ignorance, Ben, but what’s the difference between ZiPS and ZiPS DC? (and please don’t tell me the latter are done when Dan’s at a Starbucks in the nation’s capitol). Thanks!

Ben Clemens: ZiPS DC uses Dan’s rate statistic projections but Depth Charts playing time projections

Ben Clemens: Essentially, I’d consider Depth Charts to be ‘if everything goes as well as we expect’ and ZiPS raw playing time projections to bake in a lot of injury

J: Lots of chatter about a Kyle Tucker extension. Do you think it gets done? IMO this is the last chance for it to happen before he hits FA in few years

Ben Clemens: I do, I think it fits with Houston’s MO and they should be able to offer Tucker a pile of money that will set him up for life while giving them at least some discount

David: Excellent article about the Yu Darvish extension. Any idea why some pitchers seem almost ageless and others decline rapidly in their 30s? Can teams come up with a way to predict this better?

Ben Clemens: If I knew, I’d be selling that information to teams for some ungodly sum

Scott: Between the stadium situation, the ownership crying poor, the lack of any exciting Major League talent, the thin farm system, and being in a division with a juggernaut, two teams on the rise, & whatever the Angels are… Do the present day A’s have the bleakest outlook of any franchise in recent memory? I can’t remember another team having, truly, not a single thing going for them.

Ben Clemens: I feel like the Pirates are intermittently in this category, and the Orioles six or seven years ago as well

Ben Clemens: The thing Oakland has that keeps them out of ‘worst franchise’ territory is that I kinda believe in the front office

Ben Clemens: Does it look good now? No, but maybe they’ll be able to turn it around

Dave: Speaking of expansion, isn’t the current great untapped market opportunity moving an established franchise (Tampa, Oakland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland…name a low revenue/cheap billionaire owner team) to a market such as Nashville, San Antonio or Charlotte where they’d get a free stadium, eager local fans and absurd tax breaks to move?

Ben Clemens: That’s certainly an untapped market opportunity. But you could also use those cities to play the existing cities into committing more money, then collect some juicy expansion fees by also adding a team there

Ben Clemens: I think that’s the move if you’re truly profit maximizing as mlb

RTJ: Do you buy Jazz having a breakout year to coincide with his video game cover?

Ben Clemens: The only breakout Jazz needs is health

Ben Clemens: If he keeps up last year’s rate numbers, that’s a breakout

Broken Bat: Alex Reyes and the Dodgers… if anyone can fix him it’s those guys. Right?

Ben Clemens: That’s certainly how I feel

Dave: not sure if this falls under your cooking area of expertise but i’ll ask anyways. i have an electric stove and have attempted a few recipes using a cast iron. the recipes will call for cooking on high, which i do, but then everything seems to cook extremely faster than what the recipe says. like this led to me attempting a medium rare steak that turned out well done, and a pork tenderloin that ended up alright but smoked the house up. is there something i’m missing in setting heat levels when using a cast iron?

Ben Clemens: I’d love to know the answer to this from a scientiic stnadpoint. What I can tell you is that I have encountered this problem and have come up with a homemade solution

Ben Clemens: I run it on high for about a minute to start up, then lower it to medium high

Ben Clemens: I think it has something to do with the interplay of the large cooking surface of an electric stove and cast iron’s high heat retention, but I do not know the specficis

Greg: Why are many publications saying that Tatis Jr will play right when he comes back.  Wouldn’t it make more sense to keep Soto in right and let Fernando learn left ?

Ben Clemens: Presumably because someone has told them that

ryan: Any particular baseball books you recommend, beyond the big ones like Moneyball and Ball Four?

Ben Clemens: Veeck as in Wreck is great

Ben Clemens: I really like The Arm by Jeff Passan, underratedly good

Guest: Hey Ben. Did you find any interesting difference in your list of ev gainers when changing the pctile threshold?

Ben Clemens: Not really, though I only plyaed around with it for a few different rate

Ben Clemens: rates*

Colton: What was the point of the Puk-Bleday deal for the A’s? Like it doesn’t seem to make any sense except for the fact that Bleday is further from arb..

Ben Clemens: I’d say you hit the nail on the head

matt: Is there a date set for Prospect Week? The (meaningless) games are less than two weeks away now!

Ben Clemens: Last week of Feb, I believe

matt: At least PNC Park is nice!

Ben Clemens: Can’t argue with that. The Coliseum is the worst stadium I’ve been to, and PNC is one of the top 5 or so

matt: Why do young players consistently sign what appear to be below-market deals to stay with the Braves? Are other teams missing out by not offering those deals?

Ben Clemens: I think that if you exclude the Albies deal, it’s a matter of the Braves being willing to offer a lot of financial certainty quickly

Ben Clemens: I don’t think below market is a perfect definition, because sure they’re below free agent market level but not really extension level

Ben Clemens: I do think that teams should be more willing to offer extensions to good young players. I get the sense that the Astros are on this general model too, and it’s working out well for them

Lou Perltzman: Have you read about the Ohio train derailment story or, like the New York Times, are you more obsessed with UFOs today?

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s very scary

Ben Clemens: I don’t know a lot about toxic chemicals but like…. they seem bad? And it seems particularly bad that they’re shipped by trains that don’t have a sterling safety record

Wireless Joe Jackson: Regarding electric stoves – the radiant coils are terribly unresponsive.  Electric induction, however, is fantastic and pretty cheap these days..

Ben Clemens: Now this I have done some research on. When I buy my own place, I’m getting an induction stove for sure

Ben Clemens: Not every chef loves them but the downsides seem extremely small relative to how great they are

Guest: The Yankees and the Braves are both large-market teams going into the season with a big ?? in left field. Is that a sensible strategy? In other words, if after 2-3 months it’s still a train wreck, do you think there will be relatively easy-to-find talent to upgrade the position and they won’t be overly harmed by those initial months with a black hole in the lineup?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s worse for the Braves than the Yankees, because Oswaldo Cabrera is better than what the Braves are running out there

Ben Clemens: And you also get a free look at Oswaldo Cabrera

Ben Clemens: nobody needs a free look at Eddie Rosario

ryan: You do need magnetic pans for induction to work. It could come with a substantial upfront cost if your existing pans aren’t compatible. Not to say induction is bad, but it’s just something to be aware of

Ben Clemens: Yep, good point

Nate: As a Stros fan…I wish Dana Brown had gotten here about 3 years ago to try and finalize extensions to keep Springer and Correa here. But haven’t that said…I know he name dropped Altuve and Bregman as being extension candidates with their 2 years left. Do you think that’s really a good idea though? Or does that reek of being similar to Miggy’s/Yelich’s situation to you too?

Ben Clemens: The Astros have a big fat pile of money

Ben Clemens: I’d be more interested in extending Bregman than Altuve but I think I’d accept eitehr if I were an Astros fan

Ben Clemens: they might be overpays, but they’ll probably be a pretty close to market rate deal for a pretty good player

Ben Clemens: the Yelich deal looks bad today, but if the Brewers weren’t operating on a budget best described as ‘the change David Stearns finds around the ballpark every day’ it wouldn’t be talked about as much, and they’re still pretty good anyway

Ben Clemens: And the Miggy deal never stopped the Tigers from doing anything they wanted to do

Wireless Joe Jackson: For a home cook, electric induction is wonderful and beats gas IMO just on ease of cleanup.  This is speaking as someone who  bought a relatively low end induction range and moved to a place with a pretty nice propane range – I liked the induction better..

Ben Clemens: This week on StoveGraphs

Appa Yip Yip: Yusei Kikuchi has a beard. Do you think this is the difference maker for him?

Ben Clemens: Ooooooh. We’ll have to get a beard grade before I can say for sure

Dave: regarding “change of scenery” improvements and similar tough to measure things like if a player is “clutch” or not, i feel like it’s all stuff that truly happens for a subset of players but the overall sample population masks any sort of measurable changes. and the only way of knowing who belongs to that subset where’s it’s true is to personally know the players well enough to understand their mindset.

Ben Clemens: Good way to put this

jd: Thank you for all of the midwinter EV explorations! Since “EV” may as well be Oneil Cruz’s middle name, here’s my question: In the last month of the season, his K rate dropped, his hard-hit rate went up, as did his Avg. EV. As someone who watched nearly all of his plate appearances last year, I can say he was noticeably just not swinging as hard. Is it as easy as, “If you’re 6-7, just don’t swing so damned hard, and you’ll hit the ball better?”

Ben Clemens: Uh, probably?

Ben Clemens: He’s just soooooo strong

Ben Clemens: I love me some Oneil Cruz, and his power is so off the charts that I’d accept some downgrade in it for more contact, no doubt

Just Fowl: Does the DSG collapse signal the end of local RSNs on cable and usher in universal local streaming?

Ben Clemens: Nah, but it might signal the beginning of the end, if that makes sense

MikeM: Speaking of LF for the NYY, Aaron Hicks had a very bad year at the plate last year.  Could some of that be contributed to the tendon sheath injury that he sustained in the previous season?  Any hopes for some kind of bounce back?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, absolutely

Ben Clemens: That’s two options that I’m semi interested in

Liz: Which players that aren’t in MLB organizations are you most excited to see in the WBC? I’m excited to see Yamamoto pitch

Ben Clemens: This is maybe silly of me, and I don’t know how much he’ll play, but Wladimir Balentien is playing!

Jeff: If you had to choose between 500 at bats of Jason Heyward, Kevin Kiermier, or Victor Robles who do you want?

Ben Clemens: Probably Kiermaier

Ben Clemens: I know he’s quite poor against lefties but I like his defense the best of the group and think that he’ll do enough offensively

Pedro: What do you see out of Andrew Vaughn this year?  Seems like a player who will benefit getting out of the outfield, having some other hitters get healthy around him for support, no shifts etc

Ben Clemens: I dunno how much I buy the shifts affecting him, but getting out of the outfield and just another year in the majors are both good

Fletcher: What do you think of the idea of tying the WAR positional adjustment to leaguewide offensive output from the position?

Ben Clemens: I don’t like it, because how good Aaron Judge is shouldn’t affect whether your team’s 3b or RF with similar lines are more valuable

Eric: What are your thoughts on Jose Abreu? Bounceback? He’s in a super lineup in Houston and will start every day.

Ben Clemens: bounceback, or just continue to be pretty good

Peter: Your thoughts on Miguel Vargas this year?

Ben Clemens: Love him

Ben Clemens: I’m just a perpetual Vargas fan, to be fair, but yeah: love him

mike: My son skiied (sp?) at Revelstoke and loved it. Induction stoves are getting better and better and cheaper. Always cook at a lower temp with cast iron. Um, why can’t we just have ties and no extra innings?

Ben Clemens: I’d love ties

Ben Clemens: I mean, not love them

Ben Clemens: But love the novelty once in a while

Ben Clemens: 11 innings, then a tie, no ghost runners, bam

Sharp: Like him or not, I’m expecting a good season out of Marcell Ozuna. He was coming off a major injury last season. He hit the ball really well the last month of the season. Looked like his old self. Every projection system has him above average with the bat.

Ben Clemens: I’m not particularly bought in, but that doesn’t solve their LF problem anyway, the Braves are not very interested in playing him out there and he has a slot in the lineup as DH

Ben Clemens: I don’t think there is a worse outfielder on their roster than Ozuna, so I think if he’s good enough to play, it’ll mostly be at DH

AA: Which is more likely to regress in 2023: Strider or Harris?

Ben Clemens: Oof, this is a tough one. I think I’ll go Harris, despite thinking he’s also more likely to find another gear

Lonnie: How many years of Yu Darvish’s 6 year contract are the Padres expecting to have a useful starting pitcher? I assume it’s not 6, but it has to be more than 2.

Ben Clemens: yeah like, 4?

Ben Clemens: depends what useful means

Ben Clemens: It would hardly surprise me to see him still be a useful 5th starter at 42

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Colton: Is there any personal guidelines you follow for projecting a guy’s jump from NPB to MLB in their first year?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I discount hitter projections from ZiPS and Steamer and generally accept pitching projections

Ben Clemens: I’m aware that they’ve done more work on it than I have, but that just helps keep my mind at ease about not getting too ahead of myself on rookies

Sharp: Is Giancarlo Stanton a Hall of Famer. He’ll almost certainly get to 500 HR.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he is, but if he had hit 60 homers in a season ever, I think he would be

Pete: Oakland bright spot: they are the only professional team in Oakland. Some fans actually do enjoy going to a game and not watching on TV so if they don’t move, fix the stadium situation, or get new owners that didn’t alienate the fan base they no longer have to compete with the Raiders and Warriors for the live attendance part of fandom. Some teams can never have that to their advantage.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, solid point. Oakland has great fans. Even their minor league soccer team has good spuport

Sharp: Speaking of old-timers, Eric Sogard is suiting up for Czech Republic in the WBC

Red Kingdom: How about those CHIIIIEEEEEFS!

Ben Clemens: I watch a lot of football (I won my dynasty fantasy league this year, everyone bask in my presence, etc) and the NFL is lucky that that game was fun

Ben Clemens: between the disastrous CIN/KC officiating and the injury farce in SF/PHI, they couldn’t afford another clunker. If Mahomes hadn’t come back after rolling his ankle, hoo boy

carlo: Do you think Thairo Estrada is the everyday 2B for the Giants or does he move around in the outfield? Kapler talked about him getting looks in CF, but between Slater and Yastrzemski I don’t see him getting much time there and the corner spots are already full of guys who shouldn’t be there in the first place.

Ben Clemens: I don’t really know why he’d get CF run unless one of those two guys is hurt

Ben Clemens: I agree that Slater/Yaz makes for a pretty solid CF platoon

Ben Clemens: Maybe if Slater needs a day off and a righty is on the mound?

Ben Clemens: er, a lefty, sorry

Pete: The A’s-Rays 2019 wild card game attendance was 54,000.

Ben Clemens: Yeah Oakland fans show up

hebrew: re: Oneil Cruz.

His numbers went up at the end of the season because the Pirates stopped letting him face lefties

Ben Clemens: I mean…. that seems like a good plan!

Kingdome: Are Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly underrated? Thanks.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, but not extremely so

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re widely considered to be solid but not excellent, and that feels pretty close to the mark for me

Tom: Most Yankees fans would probably sign up for Anthony Volpe slashing .257/.310/.451 with 24 HR as a 4 WAR second baseman by age 25…which is exactly what Gleyber Torres put up last year, in another “down” year (albeit a retracement from 2020-21). So why is there such an axe to grind in trading Torres, besides team control years? My personal thought is Torres has the build/range to move to 3b to make room for Volpe, and replace Donaldson after ’23.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the team shares that view, they seem pretty content to keep him and let him play nearly every day, which is what he deserves given his performance

Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, it’s dog walk time. Thanks for chatting with me today, and if I didn’t answer your questions, I’ll try to get you next time. Have a great week, everyone.