Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 2/21/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I got this set up late, so I’m going to wait a few minutes for some questions to pile up while I get some coffee.

Ben Clemens: Alright, let’s get started

Chris: Where is profar going to end up?

Ben Clemens: I’m really confused by the lack of market for him. I thought Texas was a logical landing place, but it seems like they were aiming a little lower for their left field solution

Ben Clemens: I guess the best spot at this point is Atlanta? But it’s weird. I don’t think that they are looking to add a left fielder before the season starts

Ben Clemens: I guess my best bet is that he’ll wait until the season starts and go somewhere that needs a left fielder

Ben Clemens: At this point, that means waiting for injury or ineffectiveness

Jack: good afternoon, was wondering the reasoning behind nick Gonzales’s 35 FV hit tool. At the time of the draft he was around a 60 FV, and now he is 35? I understand he strikes out a lot, however he did have a 127 WRC+ at AA. 35 seems light to me given his numbers at AA. Thanks!

Ben Clemens: So, that’s a question for Eric and not me, but I’ll make some general observations from the outside: he’s running a 30% strikeout rate

Ben Clemens: His hit tool grades have been going down with each passing year

Ben Clemens: He can still do a lot of damage when he connects, but I’m not getting ‘oh this guy will definitely bat .280’ vibes, to say the least

Jeff: Does Grayson Rodriguez get enough innings this year to be impactful? Seems like the Orioles treat their SP prospects with extreme caution.

Ben Clemens: I think he will

Ben Clemens: They treat their prospects with caution but in 100 IP, I think he’d be plenty impactful

Fact Finder: what kind of baseball questions do you specialize at if not prospects? Jay has the HOF questions right?

Ben Clemens: I mean… I don’t have much of a specialty

Ben Clemens: but there is more to baseball than prospects and the hall of fame

ram: who is the biggest bust that you thought would be a star?

Ben Clemens: Brendan Rodgers. The book isn’t closed on him yet by any means, but I truly did not think he’d be posting league average batting lines before adjusting for Coors

Ben Clemens: I thought he was gonna be the next Tulo

Not Marvin Miller: Where do you think Gary Sanchez might end up?  Surprised he’s not signed yet?

Baseball fan: If Gary Sanchez has a monster WBC, how big of a deal could he end up getting? He has to be tempting for a lot of teams

Ben Clemens: I’m not surprised he hasn’t found a place yet, to be honest. I don’t think teams want to play him at catcher, which limits his market pretty significantly

Ben Clemens: If he’s not a catcher, he’s a marginal righty DH bat. If he can catch, he’s a good deal

Ben Clemens: If I were a team that had an opening at catcher, I’d give him a shot, just to be clear

Ben Clemens: He looked acceptable to me (in limited looks) in Minnesota last year

Ben Clemens: Teams have much better evaluators than we do for this kind of thing, but given the state of catcher, I’d give him a shot

asnbrv: How does fangraphs treats obvious change to a park? For example, when TEX got a whole new park, when BAL’s fence got moved significantly, and when DET’s fence moves this season. Do they keep the previous 3 years park factor and wait until the new park plays out? Do they use league average until it plays out?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna try to get clarification on this, but as I recall from the Texas change, we use league average for the previous years to create a regression, rather than the old park values

Fact Finder: true.. I’m assuming Dan has the numbers and Paul is fantasy….not trying to be offensive and apologies in advance if it comes across that way.

Ben Clemens: Haha not at all

Ben Clemens: I am specialty-less

Ben Affleck: Where’s my buddy

Walla Walla Ron Washington: I like that bust question, let’s reverse it: who’s the biggest star that you thought would be a bust?

Ben Clemens: Ooooooooh

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna admit my bad take here and say Andres Gimenez

Ben Clemens: I just did not see it when he was on the Mets, so I didn’t get the hype

Ben Clemens: I was down on his production even last year as he was doing great

Ben Clemens: But I’ve gone back and looked at him a lot more and basically decided I was wrong to look at him and think he didn’t have power

Ben Clemens: He’s a little guy, but the numbers don’t lie

Ben Clemens: I was definitely too bought in on the visual evaluation and not enough on how well he was playing

Walla Walla Ron Washington: My impression is that Ben’s specialties are the cooking and board games components of baseball

Ben Clemens: Fair

Dave: I recently got into making fried rice and can’t believe i didn’t do this earlier. So easy and a great way to use up leftover veggies and meat from previous meals.

Ben Clemens: Seconded

Ben Clemens: Fried rice, or for me just sheet pan rice and veggies cooked in the oven, is one of my favorite lunches

Ben Clemens: Easy and delicious

roto: do you believe berrios rebounds back to his Twins days?

Ben Clemens: I do

Ben Clemens: Warning: Berrios is someone I considered as an answer for my ‘who’s a bust who you thought would be a star’

RTJ: I’ve been enjoying reading the articles about using certain statistics of season n to predict season n+1. With spring training arriving, I’m wondering if you have thoughts about specific stats in ST that might best predict the success for the upcoming year. Sample size and veteran players “trying something new” are a nightmare for predictions probably, but maybe something I can look for in younger guys about to break out?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, really. Same stats as anywhere else, I guess, except I’d care a lot more about exit velocities for hitters because those seem to vary less with level of competition

Ben Clemens: This is a great time to bring up one of my favorite old articles, too: Ben Lindbergh on people who come to spring training in the best shape of their life

Ben Clemens: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-does-best-shape-of-his-life-spr…

Guest: What are your thoughts on the Angels getting Matt Moore? I feel like I’m getting dangerously more and more excited about Anaheim. Not good for my heart!

Ben Clemens: I love it for them

Ben Clemens: I think he’s their best reliever

RA Niekro: Re: Surprise stars – I don’t think anyone saw Jose Ramirez being a HOFer when he came up

Ben Clemens: For sure

Ben Clemens: He’s a great example, but I just didn’t follow him when he came up, so by the time I was aware of him I just thought he was a star

Mlon Eusk: What would you say are the general thresholds for strikeout rate given their barrel rate? i.e. it’s acceptable to strike out 25% of the time if you barrel batted balls X% of the time.

Is that even the right way to be thinking about it?

Ben Clemens: I think that’s a slight oversimplification, but it’s a good place to start

Ben Clemens: Like, there are more dimensions to it than that, guys who walk a lot or line drive hitters or speed types can get away with lower barrel rates

Ben Clemens: but say, 25%/10% or something?

Mike: I have first overall pick for upcoming draft in a dynasty league, weighted toward OBP versus just AVG. I’m going to take Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday – am I overthinking it to pass on Jones bc maybe Holliday seems a bit safer since he got some at-bats  in and hit well last year, while Jones had shoulder surgery? Just trying to gauge how much extra risk I’m taking on with Jones, or if his ceiling far outweighs extra risk…

Ben Clemens: I do not think you’re overthinking it at all. Our prospect list isn’t out yet (tomorrow! tomorrow!), and I haven’t seen it, but I bet Holliday will be ahead of Jones

Ben Clemens: Obviously that’s real life and not fantasy, but yeah, I think I’d still prefer Holliday

Dan’l: If they fail to resign any of them, do the Cards have 3 QO candidates from the rotation after this season?

Ben Clemens: Mmmm… I mean, it’s plausible but not likely

Ben Clemens: They are all QO candidates given a solid season, but the odds of all three of Mikolas/Flaherty/Montgomery putting those seasons up and then also not signing extensions aren’t high

Ben Clemens: I think the most likely extension candidate is Montgomery, but maybe that’s unfair to Mikolas, he seems to like StL and I think the team could use his steady innings

Ben: Which pair of starters would you most want leading your rotation in 2023: Cole/Rodon, Scherzer/Verlander, Nola/Wheeler, Fried/Strider, McClanahan/Glasnow, or Burnes/Woodruff?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d take Cole/Rodon out of that group, though they’re all great

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna be honest… I’d take deGrom/Heaney over any of them though. I’m just a hopeless deGrom optimist

baseballs deep: I see a lot of people expecting some regression from Michael Harris II.  Everyone points to his groundball rate, low walk rate and oswing v zswing.  However, considering he is 21 and his history of decent walk rates, high babips and k rates in the minors is there not also room for him to grow?  Also, is it not reasonable to expect him to get a little better vs LHP considering you simply don’t see good lefties in AA much?  His first real exposure was last Summer, on the fly, to major league lefties.

Ben Clemens: I think he’s just a high-volatility guy. I can see a lot of places to worry, and a lot of places to be optimistic.

Ben Clemens: Like, he doesn’t have much minor league history because he just hasn’t played that much professional baseball

Ben Clemens: But that’s not a bad thing by any means

Ben Clemens: Just a volatile thing

Ben Clemens: I don’t like his approach at all, he’s somehow swinging way more at pitches out of the strike zone than league average but less at pitches in the zone than average

Ben Clemens: So I think there’s risk that pitchers just give him a pure junk diet and he struggles to adjust

Ben Clemens: But I’d rather have someone need to adjust that way than need to develop better tools

Jules: Since we now know power is pretty hard to come by if you don’t already have it, how about the other side of the equation: contact? And please give me hope Oneil Cruz will somehow prove a point (in a good way).

Ben Clemens: Contact is easier to develop than power (according to what major leaguers have done) but still not easy

Ben Clemens: I’m very optimistic on Cruz, though, because I don’t think he needs to become a great contact hitter to be awesome

Ben Clemens: if he strikes out 30% of the time and plays an acceptable shortstop, he’s gonna be an all star

WBC: Do you think Didi will latch on with a team if he has a good WBC?

Ben Clemens: Honestly, no

Ben Clemens: If he wants to be a utility infielder, maybe?

Ben Clemens: I just don’t think he’s a starting shortstop anymore

Oaktown Blues: I appreciated your article on the Cole Irvin trade and your follow up about teams valuing players differently. Do you feel that the A’s other selloff trades also fall into the category of “unfair on paper, but logical when you consider each team’s needs and goals”?

Ben Clemens: Thanks. And, basically no? I think that in large part they’re doing the opposite of what I’d do. There aren’t a lot of Darell Hernaiz’s in their returns

Ben Clemens: They seem to be going for proximity to the majors, which makes very little sense to me given how comprehensively they’re annihilating their own major league team

Ben Clemens: The A’s are smart, smarter than me. They’re not just out there pressing random buttons. But from the outside looking in, I just don’t get it

Alex: The Rays’ offseason has been frustratingly bereft of signs that they will have an improved offense.  Is there any hope beyond “Wander Franco gets better?”

Ben Clemens: I’ll give you a few silver linings: more PA’s from Isaac Paredes, who was an above average hitter with a .195 BABIP last year. More from Manuel Margot as a platoon bat. Jose Siri improving just a little bit would go a long way. Brandon Lowe returning

Ben Clemens: But yeah, I would have liked to see them do SOMETHING else

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Hi Ben. I noticed you’re a kenji alt Lopez fan. Please tell me you have a sous-vide?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, and I should probably get one

Ben Clemens: I don’t do a lot of big cooking projects, which is what has held me back so far

Ben Clemens: Like, I’m really enjoying wok cooking, and one thing I like is that you just kinda prep your stuff and then chuck it in the pan

Mets Fan: Will Brett Baty make the team? Seems pretty likely he can outproduce Escobar if he can play an average 3b

Ben Clemens: I think that if he has a great spring training, he will make the team, but I am higher on Escobar than it sounds like you are

Ben Clemens: I pretty much agree with his projections; average player, both offensively and overall

Ben Clemens: Everyone loves Baty, granted, but it’s no lock that he’d outperform Escobar right away

Ben Clemens: I think it might be a ‘show you can do it’ kinda thing, but if Baty is mashing in ST/AAA and Escobar is struggling, or even if Escobar is doing just fine but Baty is really on fire, they’ll make the change

Ben Clemens: Escobar in a super utility role is an attractive fallback option, which is one reason I liked that signing

Amed Rosario: What are the chances I take another leap and put up a 5+ WAR season?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say pretty low, though I think you are underrated on the whole

Ben Clemens: This is one of those ‘contact leaps aren’t likely’ situations

Ben Clemens: Rosario has legit top-end power and plays acceptable shortstop defense as best as I can tell

Ben Clemens: but he doesn’t get to the power often enough b/c he swings at a bunch of nonsense

Ben Clemens: I was a big Rosario head when he was a prospect, so maybe I’m just falling into the same narrative trap that I’ve fallen into his entire career, but I think it could happen!

Oaktown Blues: Is a Cristian Pache DFA on the horizon this Spring now that he’s out of options? Or will the A’s give him one last shot in the bigs for a couple months?

Ben Clemens: I think they have to give him one last shot

Ben Clemens: Not even from a sunk cost perspective, just from a ‘how the heck are we building a whole roster otherwise’ perspective

Ben Clemens: Particularly when you factor in a likely Laureano trade

Mo Jiggles: Are the Yankees trying g

Mo Jiggles: Are the Yankees trying to avoid letting Peraza establish himself at SS? They must view him as trade bait. Moving Volpe to 2b for a glove first SS doesn’t fit their “let’s pass on every allstar SS” narrative…

Ben Clemens: I like hte first question more, haha

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna let spring training play out more before coming to a conclusion here

Shintaro Fujinami: Am I seriously the frontrunner to be the A’s Opening Day starter?

Ben Clemens: I don’t actually think it’s that weird. When I was doing my free agent rankings for this year, I asked dan for a Senga projection, and he said ‘You want a Fujinami projection too’

Ben Clemens: I didn’t even know who he was. But that was a mistake on my part, he’s quite good and their projections were basically the same

Ben Clemens: Then you look at the rest of the A’s rotation and, well, why not Fujinami?

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Do yourself a favor and TAKE THE PLUNGE. sous vide will change your life for the better. You deserve this ben.

Ben Clemens: If I get a bigger kitchen with space for more gadgets I’m sure I’ll get one. Otherwise, eh, we’ll see

Thomas: Am I silly to dream on Danny Jansen, given the rate stats/injury issues he’s had the last two years? Or is there a legit chance that he puts together a 5 win season if he can stay healthy?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s unlikely, but largely because the Jays will be smart about giving him a lot of rest to deal with those aforementioned injury issues

Ben Clemens: Heck, ZiPS projects him for 5 WAR/600

Ben Clemens: Not that catchers get 600 PA’s ever, but the rate statistics are there is my point

Farhandrew Zaidman: Duran already throwing 102 in camp?! Someone tell that man to save his bullets!

Ben Clemens: He’s saving the 103’s

RAH: PT and performance expectations for Mark Canha? Underrated veteran?

Ben Clemens: Canha is terminally underrated

Ben Clemens: he signed a bargain free agent deal, went out and put up 3 WAR, and is probably in line to do roughly that again

Ben Clemens: He had the same OBP as Brandon Nimmo last year, the walk god himself

Jordan Walker: I think I’ve already qualified for my major league debut, but there are a lot of good hitters in the Cardinals now. Can I be in the opening roster?

Ben Clemens: I would have said no before the Cardinals started trying Tyler O’Neill out in center field

Ben Clemens: I think there is some chance that they aren’t willing to go into the season with Carlson and O’Neill as 2/3 of the outfield given their down 2022 seasons (both league average with the bat, so not THAT down, but still)

Ben Clemens: I still don’t think that makes a Walker promotion likely, because they really do have a logjam of good hitters, but it definitely opens the door more than a crack

Weekend Hack: how about Castillo/whoever even counts as #2

Ben Clemens: Well, yeah, that second part is doing you no favors

asnbrv: How much steals do you think the league leader in stolen bases will have this year?

Ben Clemens: 63

Ben Clemens: but who knows haha

Insert Witty Name Here: Which highly regarded prospect from the last few years do you think is going to have a career year in 2023?

Ben Clemens: hmmm…. Gimenez

RAH: Does CJ Abrams hit the ball hard enough to live up to prospect expectations?

Ben Clemens: I do not think so

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna be honest, I never got the Abrams hype

Ben Clemens: I understand that he’s fast and toolsy but he’s just never ever ever shown power

Ben Clemens: Like, extremely never ever

Ben Clemens: All of your other skills need to come together really well to make that package work, and I feel like you can usually see those guys coming from a mile away because if you have everything else all working, you are way too good for the minors

Park Factors: Do infield grass/dirt dimensions change much between parks?  With infielders now being required to start on the dirt will defensive projections change for players and/or park factors?

Ben Clemens: Sadly the league now standardizes dirt dimensions, booooooo

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Is fangraphs aware that trevor may is AWESOME. I mean decent pitcher but damn that dude funny.

Ben: Of James Paxton, Sixto Sanchez, and Mike Soroka, who is most likely to have a healthy and productive season this year?

Ben Clemens: This is a stab in the dark, but I’ll say SIxto

Ben Clemens: I want it to be Soroka, I’m a big fan for whatever reason, I just am very worried

Henry: George Kirby AL Cy Young dark horse candidate?

Ben Clemens: Totally

Ben Clemens: But like…. dark horse

Ben Clemens: I’d want to see him either retool the breaking pitches or emphasize his changeup more

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure what to make of his slider; it looks pretty ordinary to me, and got hit hard last year (a 7.7% swinging strike rate is shockingly low for a breaking pitch) but pithcing models seem to like it

RAH: MLB headline: Heyward’s new swing the early talk of camp

Ben Clemens: I mean, what else is there to talk about?

So Sue Vide Me: A sous vide’s greatest advantage is not fancy projects but rapid, delicious, perfectly cooked proteins. Freeze up a bunch of steaks or salmon filets or chicken, toss em in the sous vide a couple hours before dinner, quick sear and prep a side and you’ve got dinner with less than 10 minutes of active work (depending on the side).

Ben Clemens: Again, couple hours before dinner? That counts as a project to me

Ben Clemens: But I do appreciate the lack of active cooking time

Luke: Endy Rodriguez’ projections are highly encouraging. ZIPs 1.4 WAR over 57 games and Steamer 3.3 WAR over 124 games. The latter would get ROY votes. Do you believe in this $10,000 international signee?

Ben Clemens: I have to say, I’m very confused about him. He’s gonna be a top 100 prospect I’m sure, he’s a 55 overall, and the numbers and scouts seem to agree

Ben Clemens: But my ML likelihood model (which is like a cut-rate KATOH or ZiPS prospects, I’m gonna write up the hitters it likes most for Friday) is really not bought in

Ben Clemens: I am looking at his statistics and don’t exactly understand why, to be honest

Ben Clemens: He seems like the kind of hitter that model should like

Ben Clemens: I’ll just say…. who cares if I believe, but I don’t

Crone Zone: Did people give up on Ian Anderson too quickly? Added a slider (I’ll believe it when I see it, but in theory a valuable add to his arsenal if he can make it average). At his worst last year with little to no command, his ERA estimators were all in the low 4’s. Or am I being too optimistic and the change up has been figured out?

Ben Clemens: I’m totally with you on ‘believe it when I see it’ on a slider for him

Ben Clemens: It’s kinda a weird pairing given how vertical his fastball is, and how the changeup plays really well off of that fastball

Ben Clemens: I think he’s a fringe-average starter, but I am not optimistic about anything more than that

Justin: David Wright, hall of fame?

Ben Clemens: For me, yes

Ben Clemens: I’m a big hall guy, though, and I don’t have a vote

Air Yordan: Not to get too into the odds, but do you see Gunnar Henderson as 3x as likely to win AL ROY as Hunter Brown? I know Henderson has the opening day job but Brown seems guaranteed to reach 120 innings and after last year I’m buying that they’ll be high quality innings

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think it’s reasonable to have Brown as fairly unlikely just b/c I expect the Astros to put him in bubble wrap

Ben Clemens: It’s just hard for pitchers to win rookie of the year given the way teams treat them now

Ben Clemens: Not that it can’t happen, and I think Henderson’s odds are too narrow anyway, so maybe on that front I agree with you, but I want hitters, not pitchers

Ben Clemens: I’d be more interested in Yoshida probably, tbh

Ben Clemens: or heck, go off the board completely for Fujinami if he’s offered somewhere

Guest: What do you expect in 2023 from a 40 year old Verlander?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, 4 WAR and a bunch of glowers

Buxton Breakthrough: Every year we ask the same question, is this the year Buxton stays healthy and puts up MVP level stats?  I just want to see a season of him and Correa together for 120+ games

Ben Clemens: Sure, I’ll say yes for fun

Ben Clemens: I am with you, I want to see it as well, not as a Twins fan but as a baseball fan

Rizzo: What do you think of James Wood’s performance on WSN? He also showed good offense on the WSN, but his K% increased significantly.

Ben Clemens: I’ll defer to Eric on this one, so you’ll just have to wait for the top 100 list tomorrow

Ben Clemens: Alright everyone, thanks for chatting today but I have to go walk my dog. Jay Jaffe will be chatting at 2 ET, so if I cruelly neglected to answer your question, I’m sure Jay will be around to also cruelly neglect to answer your question :).

Ben Clemens: Have a great week, everyone, and I’ll chat with you again in a few weeks (I’m on vacation for a bit starting Friday)