Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/21/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of February and my first in my new (and maybe very old, I’d have to check) time slot. I’m back in circulation after a bout of COVID (boo) among other things. Yesterday I did a piece on the contentious arbitration hearing of Corbin Burnes and what some fair contract offers for him might look like based on ZiPS (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/milwaukee-burnes-a-bridge/). Next up is a piece on Manny Machado’s plans to opt out. Anyway, on with the show…

Wireless Joe Jackson: How is it that Helton is going to walk into the HoF but Olerud got one-and-done’d with 4 votes?  I am OUTRAGED!  Or at least as outraged as possible regarding a HoF thing.

Jay Jaffe: It’s a bummer that Olerud went one-and-done on the 2011 ballot, but it’s not that hard to understand why. He came along as a candidate at a time when the electorate was rather stingy and largely paying no mind to advanced statistics. His raw totals of both hits (2,239) and home runs (255) did not read as Hall of Fame-caliber totals. A look at JAWS shows that he’s 24th at the position, just above contemporaries Jason Giambi and Will Clark (both one-and-done as well) but below Keith Hernandez. He’s 3.6 WAR behind Helton in career WAR and 7.6 WAR behind him in peak WAR — more than a win per year at his very best — and the 5.6-point gap between Helton (54.2, 0.8 above the Hall standard) and Olerud (48.6, 4.8 points below) is a big one where dreams of Cooperstown vanish into thin air.

Fan: Hello Jay, what are the chances Kenny Lofton gets voted in by the Veteran’s committee any time soon?

Jay Jaffe: very very low. It’s harder to get on to a ballot with the committee change and so long as this is hanging over his head it’s tough to see another candidate being bumped off the ballot to make room for him and thus drawing negative publicity to the process. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus…

Guest: Merrifield starting at 2B in Toronto? Roster Resource has him starting over Espinal.

Jay Jaffe: It looks like RR has Espinal at the very least earmarked for a platoon role against lefties (note the blue shading in the BATS column), and with Belt (DH) also earmarked as a platoon option it’s possible they’ll rearrange the furniture so that in such cases Merrifield either DHs or plays an outfield spot while an outfielder DHs. Cavan Biggio is also in the mix. I’d keep an eye on this throughout the spring for hints as to how manager John Schneider is leaning. You probably don’t need to check in with Tom Wopat, though.

John: How do you see the NYY infield shaking out ? Lot of moving parts there

Jay Jaffe: This is another wait-and-see one but for now I’d assume Rizzo and Donaldson at the corners, Torres at second, LeMahieu backing up all three, and a full-on job battle at shortstop. But whoever wins that job isn’t guaranteed to keep it all season. My money is on Oswald Peraza as the Opening Day shortstop but if Anthony Volpe has an impressive spring he could win the job outright, and if neither Peraza nor Volpe impress, Isiah Kiner-Falefa could return as the starter, but if that happens I’d assume he’s on a short leash. under that scenario, Oswaldo Cabrera would probably be the backup until one of the two big prospects is ready.

Also, if the kids and LeMahieu are showing good stuff in camp it’s not out of the question that Torres is dealt.

John Olerud’s Helmet: If Mcgriff had gotten to 2500 hits and 500 homers would he have been a 1st ballot HOFer? Hail Mr  Jaffe!!

Jay Jaffe: given how poorly McGriff fared in his ballot debut (21.5%) I have a tough time believing that 10 hits and seven homers would have rocketed that number up to 75% on the same ballot.

Raleigh: Mickey Moniak.  Angels took a flyer.  How likely is it he becomes even an average  starting major league outfielder?  Or is he destined for AAAA or 4th/5th outfielder?  thanks.

Jay Jaffe: At this stage probably pretty unlikely. He’s entering his age-25 season and has had almost no success in the majors and only fleeting success in the upper minors. He looks like a Quad-A type to me

Aaron: With Machado looking for 10 yrs 400 million, what do you think is a realistic contract for someone like Machado going into his age 31 season?

Jay Jaffe: Hopefully will have an answer in tomorrow’s piece but right now I can tell you that even in the better-case scenarios, he does not project to be worth much money for 2029-33.

Guest: Tim Raines or Tony Gwynn, and is it close?

Jay Jaffe: went over this time and again in promoting Raines’ case for the Hall. The shapes of their production were different but very equivalent in value. https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/01/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-tim-ra…

Jay Jaffe: https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/01/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-tim-ra…

JC: Do the new revelations of other teams cheating (Dodgers, Red Sox, among others), albeit in a different manner, cause you to view the Astros 2017 team differently?  Seems odd when the defense from other teams boils down to, “Yeah, we were trying to cheat, but we didn’t cheat as bad as them…”

Jay Jaffe: I’m still working my way through Evan Drellich’s book, Winning Changes Everything and haven’t dug into the part about the Dodgers but based on the reporting by him and others, the Astros’ system was much more elaborate than that of the Red Sox, and if all we have is one unidentified Red Sox player alleging the Dodgers were doing the same thing… I can’t put a ton of stock in that without the further corroboration we have regarding the other teams (Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees based on the Apple Watch incident.

Some people see enough nuances in those distinctions to come to different conclusions about each one. Others don’t, not unlike the way people view PED usage. I think the details that distinguish each case are important, particularly if the league is penalizing them or if i’m deciding, say, on whether to vote for a HOF candidate.

PhilsFan: Thoughts on Alex Kirilloff this season?

Jay Jaffe: We haven’t seen much from him at the major league level yet due to his right wrist problems. I hope it’s now healthy enough that we can see why he was considered a top-20 prospect.

BR: Hey Jay – what do you think of Oakland’s international pitcher(s)

Jay Jaffe: Is Oakland still in the league?

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I’m not the one to ask about this, so apologies for taking the easy dunk. I’m still laughing about my wife editing Jayson Stark’s annual Spring Training Survey (https://theathletic.com/4213072/2023/02/17/2023-spring-training-mlb-in…) which at one point challenged executives to name six A’s.

“I’m in their division, and I’m not sure if I could do it,” said one AL West executive, laughing uproariously.

Jay Jaffe: “This isn’t fair,” said another voter. “Can I name Brad Pitt?”

Jay Jaffe: Personally I tapped out after Tony Kemp, Ramon Laureano, Seth Brown, James Kaprielian.

Morbo: Corbin Burnes piece was excellent.

Jay Jaffe: Thank you!

copecru81: Was Utley a better player than Pedroia? I watched hundreds (1000’s) of Sox games and am skeptical.

Jay Jaffe: The numbers say Utley was a few wins better even once you account for his longer career. Slight advantage for Chase at the plate and in the field, big advantage on the bases. Yes, Pedrioa won an MVP award, but Utley should have won one instead of Howard or Rollins. Both played on multiple World Series teams and several that went to the playoffs. If Pedrioa could have gotten another 1,000 PA in his career i think he’d have had a reasonable case for the Hall.

bosoxforlife: Do you think it is wiser to take the Braves route and sign players early to long range contracts, less money but more risk, or wait until a player has proven himself but pay an exorbitant price and including dome declining years,

Jay Jaffe: The Braves’ route seems to be working pretty well lately. Ideally you’d want a blend of strategies to mitigate your risks — you’re not going to hit on every young player whom you extend the way it seems to be happening for the Braves, and your fans will lose patience if you keep letting the Freddie Freemans walk and don’t keep winning at a similar clip.

Dan in Toronto: In the wake of Tony Oliva’s election, here are a bunch of OFs who didn’t get elected on the writer’s ballots, but have similar or better numbers. How many would you like to see elected into the HOF?  Will they all have to wait to hope they live as long as Oliva to get elected?               Tony Oliva 43/1917/220/304.    A) 43.7/2743/219/303                B) 40.1/2712/339/290.                   C) 49.6/2336/287/297.                D) 54.2/2757/256/286.               E) 56.3/2769/235/285                 F) 60.4/1949/393/284                G) 64.5/2020/314/287.               H) 67.2/2446/385/272                 A = Al Oliver B = Dave Parker C = Bernie Williams D = Vada Pinson E = Johnny Damon F = Jim Edmonds G = Reggie Smith H = Dwight Evans

Jay Jaffe: I think the changes to the process make it very difficult for any of these players to get on a ballot, but of that group I hold out the most hope for Evans. I suppose it’s possible a player like Parker slips through the process but I couldn’t support him based on that low WAR, and he’s basically competing with candidates from a century worth of baseball (including Negro Leagues) for placement.

Wireless Joe Jackson: Not to quibble, but by fWAR Olerud is 2.4 WAR ahead of Helton.  Seems like they should either be both in or both out.

Jay Jaffe: huh, that looks like a quibble to me, but the bigger issue their peak performance as noted with my answer. Olerud has only three seasons with at least 5.0 fWAR, where Helton had five in a row

Tstats: Good afternoon Jay, what are your thoughts on the cap choices for Rolen and McGriff?

Jay Jaffe: seem pretty straightforward to me. I’m mildly surprised McGriff didn’t go with the Braves given that he won a World Series and played in two with them, the logic of which fits into why Rolen is wearing a Cardinals cap (he also got the big contract there and had a season where he out-WAR’d Pujols).

Matt (Costa Rica): Honest question regarding your stance that you tend to vote for rumored or known steroid users as long as they didn’t use or get caught after the rules were implemented. As someone who struggles with thinking about this same subject, I in no way mean to offend, but doesn’t your stance seemingly say that steroids are not morally wrong for what benefit they give to a player, but rather only wrong if they were caught after MLB changed the rules. To me cheating is cheating, whether MLB said it was against the rules or not. I guess my view is a bit of a glass house because I view steroids as more egregious than “greenies”…sigh…I don’t know what I think anymore 🙁 Help!

Jay Jaffe: I try to avoid making moral judgments about a problem that was unfortunately rather ubiquitous within the game. Particularly when there was no mechanism of enforcement, players had incentives (or a lack of disincentives) to use PEDs, and we are very far from a full accounting of who did what; there are users from that period already in the Hall, and there are players who experimented and stopped before they got caught up in the whole mess. Once we have a means of enforcement we at least have much less ambiguity: this guy got caught and got suspended.

Jay Jaffe: Your mileage my vary, of course.

John Olerud’s Helmet: Mr Jay! Just curious your take on Jason Kendall’s HOF credentials. Not saying he is a HOFer, but as a Catcher over 2k hits, 360 OBP and a very good defender. Seems like he deserved more than the .5% vote total he received.

Jay Jaffe: Kendall was a very good hitter for the position for awhile but finished with a 95 OPS+, and his case unfortunately looks a whole lot weaker once you incorporate pitch framing via BP’s retroframing methodology, with numerous seasons of double-digit-negative runs.

Dan: Is Burnes for Torres and German the start of a trade that makes both teams better?

Jay Jaffe: Doubt it. Have to think that if and when the Brewers trade Burnes it’s for  players whom they’ll have control of for their pre-arbitration years as well as their arb ones.

Remember, Burnes made just $608K during his Cy Young season and by our measure produced 98 times that value for the Brewers.

Chi Fan: Is Yasmani Grandel done, or is there something still in the tank?  Could he become the come back player of the year?

Jay Jaffe: Grandal’s numbers crashed through the floor last year and he didn’t hit the ball very hard. If he’s healthy enough to hit the ball hard again, he should be a valuable player but Comeback Player of the Year might be a stretch.

Farhandrew Zaidman: If Mookie finishes his career at 2B (per the recent reports and his public declaration that he’s still a second baseman) how does that affect things like his JAWS, comparisons to other HOFers, etc?

Jay Jaffe: I measure a player’s JAWS based upon the position where he had the most value, and Mookie already exceeds the peak standard for right fielders, and not by a little (50.5 to 42.4). In fact, he’s maybe two seasons away from surpassing the JAWS standard in RF:

Jay Jaffe:

Guest: McGriff is in. Andruw Jones will be in sooner or later. Will we ever get the last key piece of the 90s Braves dynasty into the Hall of Fame… the GOAT pitching coach Leo Mazzone??

Jay Jaffe: Maybe someday there will be a Frick or BBWAA Career Excellence award to recognize coaches but there’s not really much momentum to start electing them to the Hall proper when so much of what goes into their evaluations are subjective.

Guest: Do you think with Fred McGriff making it into the Hall of Fame that a day will come when Carlos Delgado is reconsidered?

Jay Jaffe: By now it should be abundantly clear that particularly with the recent Era Committee reorg, the deck is EXTREMELY stacked against one-and-done players, especially so long as some of the same people who failed to recognize them on the writers’ ballot are the ones charged with assembling the committee ballots. Grich, Whitaker, Lofton, Freehan… there are 1/D players at premium defensive positions who can’t get on the ballot, and a large pile of first basemen vaguely similar to Delgado (Olerud, Clark, Giambi, Teixeira) who outrank him in JAWS and are getting nowhere either.

Guest: Which of the most well-known shortstops (Correa, Bogaerts, Turner, Seager, Swanson) do you think has the most realistic Hall of Fame shot?

Jay Jaffe: Age is everything here, and Correa having the highest ranking in JAWS of the group while being the youngest means he’s got the best chance by far. I’d say Correa, Lindor, and maaaaybe Bogaerts if he ages particularly well.

Chris: Will Felix make it past the first ballot?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe, if only because the debut of Sabathia on the same ballot will provoke discussion of how few strong pitching candidates there are coming down the road. For more see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-comebacks-and-easy-calls-the-next-five…

Nolan Ryan’s hair line: What do the rangers need to be in the same talking space as the Astros? One more rotation piece? Bullpen ace?

Jay Jaffe: The Rangers need a better bullpen but one big separator right now is the productivity of the two outfields; the Astros total 12.6 WAR from their three spots via our Depth Charts, the Rangers just 5.3 WAR.

kfish: Do you think Kiki at SS will work for the Sox?

Jay Jaffe: For a full season? Color me skeptical, especially given how little he’s played the position in the majors and how erratic he is at the plate.

Dan the Man: Can Sandy Alcantara repeat his performance from last year? Really hoping all those innings and complete games start a trend in the workhorse direction.

Jay Jaffe: if we’re not seeing many pitchers top 220 innings it stands to reason we’re seeing even fewer who can string two such seasons back-to-back. it’s all well and good to want more length out of starters but they have to hold up under the stress.

Morbo: I’m going to die on this hill but if Andruw Jones belongs in the a HOF so does Jim Edmonds. Edmonds was a FAR better hitter than Jones and frankly Edmonds gets hosed by the defensive metrics of the time because he intentionally played shallow to rob bloop hits because he was great running back. The error bars on defensive metrics from the time are more than enough to account for the 2.5 fwar difference across their careers. Additionally Baseball Prospectus has Edmonds worth 67.1 warp vs 60.8 for Jones and has them at 121.5 vs 176.2 Defensive Runs prevented respectively.

Jay Jaffe: Morbo, Jones was notorious for how shallow he positioned himself in center field. He ran up big defensive numbers by doing what you’re telling me Edmonds did as well; to some extent, the same metrics should be capturing the value of both if that’s the way they did it. Yet the two have a gap of nearly 200 defensive runs (B-Ref) that can’t just be chalked up to error bars. I can’t vouch for BP’s defensive system (I know they’ve started rolling out new metrics) — but B-Ref and FanGraphs both show wide gaps in Jones’ favor on the glove side.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, many good q in the queue but It’s time for me to roll. Thanks for stopping by in my new chat slot. We’ll do this again next week!