Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 2/6/2020

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: I imagine we’ll have a lot of Betts content today, and probably we’ll cover some Rockies (irrational) optimism and contending team problems as well, but I’ll try to sneak in my promised sandwich takes and some board game talk as well.

Ben Clemens: Let’s get started!

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why are so many takes on the Betts deal predicated on the idea that the Red Sox couldn’t have competed this year? What, they saw the Rays’ roster of Morton/Snell/Glasnow and 37 2-WAR players and decided they couldn’t possibly hang with that?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s because that’s what the Red Sox have been telling people, but it’s a ridiculous take. This team is pretty similar to the team that won the World Series in 2018!

Ben Clemens: What you have to do to make their argument work is pre-suppose that they *have* to cut salary

Ben Clemens: The Red Sox as they were constituted this past Sunday were probably the second-best team in the AL East, with a puncher’s chance at first.

Ben Clemens: But the Red Sox but minus 40 million dollars cut somewhere on the roster weren’t.

Ben Clemens: So if you’re willing to say they have to cut payroll, then they have to cut payroll. It’s a bit of a tautology.

Springer McSpaniel: Say the Betts trade does go through, who’s the better bet to play CF between Bellinger and Betts?

Ben Clemens: This is something I probably have no edge in predicting. I think Betts would be better out there; he’s the kind of athlete that you don’t see often, and there are credible arguments that Fenway’s right field is basically a center field, and JBJ, and so on.

Ben Clemens: But honestly, it doesn’t matter much, and so whatever the Dodgers think will make their guys overall happiest is what they should do.

Sirras: Am I crazy if I think the Mookie deal is a win-win-win assuming Boston did not intend to compete in 2020 or didn’t think they could win their division?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I guess? If Boston didn’t intend to compete in 2020, though, then what a bizarrely designed team! They have a lot of really good players and their farm system isn’t great. 2020 seems like an awesome time to compete!

Springer McSpaniel: Ever had the pork belly sandwich at Num Pang In NY?  If in NY, give it a try. Catfish is great too.

Ben Clemens: We’ll sprinkle a quick sandwich question in to start. Pretty much everything at Num Pang is great! I used to work near the Hudson Yards location and got it for lunch way more than is healthy.

Springer McSpaniel: So, if Graterol’s not fit, does that just mean the Dodgers have to cough up more?  Dodgers should nix the Angel trade and move Stripling to Boston.  Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: Guess I’m hitting a lot of your questions early. I think the Twins are kind of on the hook here? Maybe they and the Dodgers will each eat a little bit, say the Price money goes down slightly and the Twins throw in a lottery ticket?

Ben Clemens: But I thought their side of the deal seemed startlingly good — I like Maeda a lot and was skeptical about Graterol — so I think they are probably willing to give a little more.

Guest: Should the Tigers sign Hamilton, Pillar and Puig, then hope elite defence and young pitching can help them win a bunch of 2-1 games?

Ben Clemens: They should because I think all three of those players are good. But ‘plan to win a bunch of 2-1 games’ is a pretttttty bad strategy. If they’re doing that because they actually want to be bad for another year, then sure.

Ben Clemens: But Billy Hamilton isn’t the kind of guy who helps your team win baseball games in 2020. Outfield defense matters less when everything goes over the wall, and hitting dingers matters more than ever.

Ben Clemens: Pillar and Puig are probably not standout defenders at this point in their careers, and they’re the kind of low-upside veterans that bad teams don’t usually sign, but if they just want to entertain the fans, there are worse ways to go than Puig.

Dave: I’d imagine it’s hard being a Padres/Dbacks fan this week

Ben Clemens: Hopefully this isn’t too much of a downer for them, but I don’t think they were winning the division *before* this trade?

Ben Clemens: This seems like a trade that juices them up for the postseason, but they just had no holes at all, and those teams are both still on the upswing.

Ben Clemens: There’ll be more years for them, and competing for a wild card is pretty fun still.

Snid: Is Mookie being 5′ 9″ have any bearing on his future production or the willingness of the Red Sox to pay up?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t done any research on this, but I don’t think it should? Anecdotally, I’m often worried about bad-body guys, just because I wonder about their aging and also their motivation to put in the crazy hours of work that modern professional baseball players mostly do.

Ben Clemens: But Mookie Betts is an absolute freak athlete who just happens to be a little short, and uh, let’s just say working really hard doesn’t seem to be a problem for him.

5 Run Homer: Bellinger and Betts is the best outfield duo in baseball since _______?

Ben Clemens: Trout and Upton, when Upton was better?

Ben Clemens: Might be better than that, it’s close.

Ben Clemens: If it’s better than that, then we’re going to need to go a ways back.

WAR of WAR: If the trade goes through……Bellinger/Betts vs. Trout/Rendon…Who has more total WAR in 2020?

Ben Clemens: Related question

Ben Clemens: I’d take Rendon/Trout, because I think Rendon is better than the projections say, but this is going to be a fun silly storyline to watch.

Babyfarts: With the news od Maeda and Stripling getting moved does that increase the value of Urias and May this year or does inning limits and Wood being there still limit their upside?

Ben Clemens: Both of these things can be true. Urias and May are probably in line for more innings now. But the Dodgers are going to spread things out, limit everyone’s workload, and try to coast on their offense while protecting their pitching.

Ben Clemens: Don’t go draft Dodgers pitchers expecting 200 innings of workhorse starts, because they simply don’t run the team that way.

Ben Clemens: But without those first-half Maeda starts, I’d expect the 4-7 type guys on the roster to pick up more value and innings.

Jerome: How have the confluence of moves in and around Mookie affected the playoff/WS odds of AL bubble teams, the A’s & Rays? On the one hand, Boston is now a lot worse (helps both, Rays more). On the other hand, the Angles are better (hurts both, A’s more). Neutral for the A’s and improvement for the Rays? What are your thoughts?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a net benefit for both. Boston got worse by a lot more than LAA got better.

Ben Clemens: The Angels have picked up a tiny bit in the outfield and then their starting pitching has gotten better. But it hasn’t gotten a ton better — it’s gotten deeper, which is really valuable for them but less important for the A’s.

Ben Clemens: The only reason the Angels getting better matters more to the A’s than the Rays is head-to-head matchups (assuming you don’t think the West is in play)

Ben Clemens: And that’s like 13 games different, maybe two Stripling starts different? Eh, it’s marginal. Meanwhile the Red Sox went from favored for WC1 to still okay but just in the mix.

David Price : My career ERA would literally be 3.05 without the Yankees so I for one am glad to leave the AL East

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think Price is an underrated part of this deal. Assuming the reported money changing hands is right, I’d sign Price to a 3/48 deal and feel happy about it.

Ben Clemens: He’s still a good pitcher!

Ben Clemens: The AL East’s competitive and run-scoring environment plays hell with stats.

Dongo Lewis: Why are we letting the Red Sox say they had to cut payroll? Huge media market, huge tv deal, owned by Fenway Sports Group that is printing money right now (don’t forget they own an incredibly successful Premier League team that hasn’t required major investment this year and won’t need major investment next year)

Ben Clemens: I don’t really think we are? There are always going to be writers, both local and national, who carry teams’ water.

Ben Clemens: But my impression from reading the broad swath of coverage is that the team is getting rightly vilified for this move.

Ben Clemens: And anyone who talks about this trade in the context of being optimal is generally starting off by saying “Now, if you assume that htye have to cut payroll, WHICH IS A WEIRD ASSUMPTION’

5 Run Homer: Who leads the Angels in IP in 2020?

Ben Clemens: Stripling or Heaney

Ben Clemens: I’m a big irrational Andrew Heaney fan b/c I tried to buy shares in him via Fantrax when that was a thing

Ben Clemens: So let’s say him.

5 Run Homer: And how many IP?

TomBruno23: What STL Cardinals related story line are you most interested in seeing play out this spring?

Ben Clemens: 150 innings

Ben Clemens: let’s say

Ben Clemens: And gotta throw a Cards question in once in a while.

Ben Clemens: I want to see how the young kids look, and who breaks camp in the outfield.

Ben Clemens: Oh, and I want to see Kodi Whitley against major league hitters.

So you’re saying theres a chance: Odds the Betts deal falls through?

Ben Clemens: Like 1%? You can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a fully fleshed out way to say this, but I don’t think any team is doing a trade if they think they’re winning it by a razor-thin margin.

Ben Clemens: They have uncertainty baked in, and no team is trying to trade 100 dollars of perceived value for 101, because there’s a built-in winner’s curse

Ben Clemens: If the other guy is willing to trade with you, he thinks he’s winning too

Ben Clemens: And you tend to end up with the guys you overvalue

Ben Clemens: So teams make trades when the margin is acceptable.

Ben Clemens: This is going to cut into those margins but not by THAT much I don’ think.

Bookie Metts: Why did the Giants sign Wilmer Flores

Ben Clemens: Because Grant Brisbee willed it. He’s been all over the Flores beat.

Ben Clemens: But mostly because you have to throw somebody out there.

Bookie Metts: Better late round fantasy OF with some speed: Eaton, Cain, Kingery or Hampson

Ben Clemens: I’m doing some research on the Rockies right now, and I’m struck by Hampson’s weird profile

Ben Clemens: Well, only weird in that guys with strikeout rates like his usually need more power

Ben Clemens: And that his BABIP seems way too low given Coors + his speed

Ben Clemens: I’ll take him, because I think the plate discipline is going to come around enough that he’ll get on base a lot more.

Benny and the Betts 🙁: Will Andrew Benintendi ever be what people thought he was gonna be?

Ben Clemens: Depends what people thought he was going to be.

Ben Clemens: If you mean perennial All-Star with MVP years, probably not?

Ben Clemens: But if you mean above-average regular who spikes some great seasons here and there, I’d say definitely yes.

Ben Clemens: That’s what I thought about him, and he seems to be doin that quite well now.

stever20: any shot we see a Lindor or Bryant trade now?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so, basically.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that public opinion matters a ton on these things, but I’ve never really gotten the noise around a Bryant trade, and someone would have to bowl the Indians over for Lindor. Every day we get closer to the season, it gets less likely.

Early 2017: But people thought benintendi was better than Judge

Ben Clemens: Yeah, uh, those people were wrong then? I didn’t remember that.

Ben Clemens: But that seems like it was probably as much too low on Judge as too high on Benny, no?

Charlie’s Mom: Hi Ben, thanks for the chat. Seemed like the Brewers (who turned over 40% of their 25/26 man roster) were looking for a big strike in FA a la a reunion with Grandal or a Didi signing. Obviously a big whiff there. You see any fits for a trade for them?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I very much think this was their plan, which is why I didn’t like their offseason. They seem like they were betting on the slow/awful free agent market of the last few years persisting.

Ben Clemens: Who could they get? I think trades are gonna be tough for them, and I truly don’t understand whether they’re salary-constrained or not, but they could get Seager?

Ben Clemens: Someone up above suggested Bryce Turang for Seager, and I like that. Gotta try to win the Central this year, I think, when your team is all together and you know everyone is good right now.

Early 2017: Oh it was definitely “Judge will not be a 5 WAR guy” more than the other, yes

TomBruno23: benintendi pre 2017 was #1 on BA and MLB lists, #3 BP. Judge was #90 BA, #63 BP and #45 MLB.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, so missing on Judge makes sense. I think that Benintendi’s 8 WAR in three seasons isn’t really all that low for a top 10 type, and that we remember the exceptions more than the average of good prospects. But yeah, maybe I’m misremembering his hype a little

Ben Clemens: I mean, no one was right on Judge. Seems wrong to do the framing as ‘judge vs benintendi’

Ben Clemens: I’ve told this story a lot, but a very inventive Yankees heckler was going after Benintendi when I went to Sox/Yankees G4 in the 2018 playoffs.

Ben Clemens: ‘Hey Benintendi, I had that haircut in third grade’ being the highlight

Ben Clemens: But also ‘Hey Benintendi, you were adopted’ and ‘Hey Benintendi, your skills aren’t valued in arbitration’

Ben Clemens: So that heckler, and Benintendi, will always have a place in my heart.

Benny and the Betts 🙁: How would you “tier” the contenders. I would have “tier one” as the yankees and dodgers, and “tier two” as the twins, astros braves, and rays.

Ben Clemens: This sounds correct to me!

Ben Clemens: Braves maybe a smidge high

Ben Clemens: But the other three, yeah.

Ben Clemens: I think the NL east is gonna be a bloodbath

Ben Clemens: Nats, Braves, Mets all pretty close in my eyes

Dave: Would you say the Brewers are a tier below the Cubs/Reds/Cards in the NLC?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s my view. Four-way tossup but the Brewers are I thikn the clear worst of the bunch. And the Cardinals are *probably* the worst of the top tier.

JK: Hey Ben, first time first time. What game has been hitting your table with good frequency lately?

Ben Clemens: Gotta get my target demographic in really quickly.

Ben Clemens: I’ve been playing Aeon’s End, Clank, and Sherlock Holmes: Consulting Detective recently

Ben Clemens: Oh, and Letter Jam when we have some people over.

Ben Clemens: Highly recommend all of them.

Sirras: Lot of chatter around the potential collapse of the Mets sale. Any thoughts?

Johnny5Alive: In other baseball news, whats your take on the mets sale mess? Wilpons really wanted 5 years to play with someone else’s money and then got mad when he wanted to hold an event on opening day with all his rich friends announcing he would be buying the team? seems strange to me

Ben Clemens: Yeah, never assume anything with the Wilpons, I suppose. What a bizarre set of circumstances overall.

Ben Clemens: As someone with a financial background I noodled around what I’d think of Cohen buying the Mets.

Ben Clemens: Never really turned it into anything concrete, but I think it probably would have been a positive for the team.

Ben Clemens: But after accounting for the Wilpon haircut (never assume anything is over untli it’s over), I’m not too surprised by the result.

hp: benintendi will always have a special place in my heart too, because my baseball career ended with him scoring on a walkoff throwing error that i made in the state tournament

Ben Clemens: Bruuuuuuuuutal

Reds not retreads: Yo, Benjamin. What is your best prediction for what the Cincy OF looks like on opening day?

Ben Clemens: Hm.

Ben Clemens: They open with the Cardinals, so Winker will be in to face Flaherty probably?

Ben Clemens: Castellanos is a lock

Ben Clemens: And then I guess Akiyama in center?

Ben Clemens: That said, I think Aquino will take a ton of playing time from Winker overall.

SparkyMcGuffey: What do you expect from Verdugo?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s Benintendesque?

Ben Clemens: Fine, not great, nice player to have, not too many kids are gonna have Fat Heads of him on their wall.

Ben Clemens: Fringe-average facial hair

Guest: Prediction time: What ultimately ends up deciding the NLE?

Ben Clemens: I’m going to say wins and losses

Ben Clemens: But second place: dance off

Early 2017: I think it’s just, you know, AL East rookies same position same year.

Ben Clemens: Yeah very much agreed.

Andrew: How do you expect Ryu’s numbers to play out this year, being in the AL East?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. worse? Let’s be more specific though.

Ben Clemens: One really helpful thing about Ryu is that he gets a ton of value from limiting walks

Ben Clemens: That matters more in high-homer environments.

Ben Clemens: So I think he’ll continue to be a FIP beater, because of the way he limits the value of homers relative to context-neutral values

Ben Clemens: Which I don’t really see in any projections

Yankees’ Injured List: Speaking of Aquino, what’s his ceiling?

Ben Clemens: I dislike the concept of ceilings. His ceiling is that he’s great! Aaron Judge, basically. His 90th percentile outcome makes more sense to me, and that’s maybe what people mean, and I would have that as perennial All-Star type.

Scott: The Betts trade got me reading a lot about the sexual assault case involving the Dodgers. How did they and Gabe Kapler escape that without any punishment? It’s far worse than what the Astros did

Ben Clemens: This is a hard thing to get into in a chat, because it deserves nuance and seriousness, and I tend towards hot takes and sarcasm.

Ben Clemens: But people don’t talk about this nearly enough, it’s wild that Kapler is still a major league manager, and yes, deifnitely read about this and tlak about it, it was awful!

Tabletop Talk: Board games are great, but do video games have a spot in your heart?  If so, what types usually get you going?

Ben Clemens: I probably play a video game once a year on average

Ben Clemens: As in play through, not play at all.

Ben Clemens: RPG’s are my genre of choice.

Ben Clemens: Though that doesn’t count kinda mindless digital card games that you can play either on your phone or laptop — I’ll fire up Slay the Spire, or Eternal (not mindless but you can play it that way), or Hearthstone Battlegrounds to kill time.

andy: do you think the red sox’s median number of projected playoff appearances over the next five seasons went up or down because of this trade (presuming it goes through)?

Ben Clemens: Down

Ben Clemens: I think it’s very hard for them to avoid hitting a bump in the road as Sale ages and guys start hitting arb

Ben Clemens: 2020 was a big year for them, and now it’s gotten a lot tougher.

Dave: Elder Scrolls fan?

Ben Clemens: Oh yes. Can’t wait for whatever the heck 6 is gonna be called. Though I imagine this year’s game will be Cyberpunk

Marshall: Verdugo was a top-rated prospect coming into 2019 (although I think Fangraphs was lowest on him) and then had a very good season. Was his trade value higher before or after the 2019 season?

Ben Clemens: I’d say higher now. But I don’t really think it’s perfectly modular. His trade value could be different depending on what you’re looking for. I’d be willin to believe that his chances of being an absolute superstar have come down

Ben Clemens: But a lot of the bust potential came out.

Ben Clemens: Teams trawling for megastars might be less interested, teams looking for good players more so

Ben Clemens: If that makes sense

Matt Klentak: Phillies are clear 4th in NL east right, So if the owner says no more spending & they really only have 2 prospects to deal or call up plus Realmuto is a pending FA.. are they closer to blowing the whole thing up than contending for a title?

Ben Clemens: Nah, I don’ think that at all. They’re a clear fourth but they’re young, have some guys who could outperform, and should be around for years. Plus they can spend more, something something ‘stupid money.’

Overbearing Padre: What moves should the Padres make in the next year to become Contenders with a capital C?

Ben Clemens: Hard to say without seeing how the team develops. If the center field situation works itself out, that’s big. I want to see how their pitching develops. And honestly, though I love Austin Hedges, if he doesn’t get a liiiiiiittle better with the bat they might need to do something there.

Mountie Votto: If David Bell and the Reds play the matchups right (assuming guys don’t get grumpy with decreased playing time), I feel like that lineup could be deadly on a day-to-day basis. There are so many options for platooning (esp. in the OF) that the team could really stack the lineup on given days and still have options for the later innings.

Ben Clemens: 100% agree. They are managing a team the way I’d like to think I would from a platoon standpoint.

Ben Clemens: That outfield is excellent, it’s how teams should do it.

Ben Clemens: I think fans underrate the value of platoons, and you can see that teams like the Rays, Dodgers, and A’s get some juiiiiiice out of it.

Ben Clemens: Reds just seem to be run really well.

twinmh: Do you think the Angels had something like this in mind when they dumped Cozart’s contract?  Because they’re looking pretty good right now.  The 12.6M dead money is now covering two productive players, at the cost of Rengifo and an even-ish swap of Pages for Wilson.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I mean, they could have also just spent more? But it makes more sense now, at least, between that and Rendon

Ben Clemens: Also, there’s reportedly still another name going to LAD

Jake from State Farm: Which is a better value? 1 year of Betts at $27M or 5 years of Verdugo, with the first two at league minimum and 3-5 at arbitration?

Ben Clemens: Well, again, depends on what you’re looking for. For a team like the Dodgers, Betts is a better value, b/c they can produce average seasons for cheap through development and platooning.

Ben Clemens: I think Dan called it value vs. tempo

Ben Clemens: and I like that

Ben Clemens: squeezing the wins into one position and one year, when you have a high floor, is really good

Ben Clemens: That said, the Red Sox have some holes. They might value Verdugo more

Ben Clemens: If they aren’t planning on spending to fill those holes in the next few years.

Ben Clemens: Because that team is more stars-and-scrubs, while the Dodgers are more stars-and-good-players

Pete Rose: Speaking of nuance and seriousness, I committed a horrible crime on top of the gambling but we don’t talk about that much.

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think it’s fair to say that the gambling stuff about Rose is overblown and everything else is underblown

Ben Clemens: If that’s a word

Snid: What’s Paxton’s numbers when he returns? Does he get a rotation spot?

Ben Clemens: Rotation spot definitely. And I dunno, predicting back injuries is dicey

Ben Clemens: But eh, maybe the same as before?

Ben Clemens: I truly have no clue.

YankinSTL: Should baseball be like football where you can field a different offense and defense?  I thought it would make for an interesting game

Ben Clemens: Hm. I don’t think I’d like it. My sense is that you’d end up with a lot more TTO types on offense

Ben Clemens: large adult sons, in the vernacular

Ben Clemens: that would make the defense maybe matter less than I’d hope

Ben Clemens: I’d be curious to see an experiment with it in fall league or something

Ben Clemens: But I think it would detract from my nostalgia and feeling of baseballness

Ben Clemens: And that’s a big downside

PD: Max Muncy 3 year deal for $26M and a $13M club option for 2023. Seems underpaid, even accounting for reduced salaries due to arbitration.

Ben Clemens: I’m writing this deal up. A lot comes down to how much you believe in Muncy. But look at Tommy Pham, who followed a similar path.

Ben Clemens: He made 4.1 million in ARB1, then 7.9 this year. That’s 12 million, so 14 next year would make the whole thing work

Ben Clemens: Like…. sure?

Ben Clemens: Maybe it’s slightly light, but the issue is with arb, not with this particular deal

Pumpsie Green: You promised Rockies/Montfort chat!

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’ve been light on that.

Ben Clemens: I just find the Monfort stuff so crazy.

Ben Clemens: Like, is it out of the realm of possibility that the Rockies win 94 games?

Ben Clemens: Nah

Ben Clemens: But they’re playing near-0’s at C, 1B, 2B, LF, and potentially CF

Ben Clemens: You need a ton of guys to breka right to get up from there

Ben Clemens: Teams routinely outperform and underperform expectations

Ben Clemens: The year they won 91 games, they had a pythag of an 85 win team

Ben Clemens: so that’s not a huge variance

Jake from State Farm: “That said, the Red Sox have some holes. They might value Verdugo more” this is key I think. Of course Verdugo isn’t Betts but his low cost and team control allows them reach for a star – say, Lindor or Bryant – when the time is right. It can’t be underestimated that they are saving $50 million thanks to this deal. That’s HUGE.

Ben Clemens: a star like….. mookie betts?

Ben Clemens: Like I get why, given that they were trading Betts, they went after a guy like Verdugo

Ben Clemens: That makes sense to me

Ben Clemens: But I’d definitely rather just try to win this year

Mountie Votto: Any chance Tyler Stephenson can make a splash in the minors and fill the need at C for the Reds by mid-season? Guy’s been steady in the minors for what feels like forever now.

Ben Clemens: Missed this one earlier, but sure maybe. It’s really dicey projecting prospect catchers

Ben Clemens: And I generally dislike expecting them to skip a level

Ben Clemens: But he’s a top 100 dude easy, I think. Wouldn’t be a shock at all to see him just keep hitting.

Ben Clemens: By 2021, yeah def

stever20: Weren’t the odds of the Red Sox truly competing this year slim and none?  I mean huge questions with the pitching.  Who knows what Sale will give them.  Price major questions as well…  bullpen?  And Yankees look like a dynamic team.

Ben Clemens: I mean maybe our odds are just dumb and awful and bad

Ben Clemens: But we had them as like the third or fourth best team in baseball?

Ben Clemens: They won 108 games with this team!

Matt Klentak: Phillies owner said they will not exceed the luxury tax & spend more. Also I dont think they are young at all? One guy under 25 is Hasley.. they have a lot of guys in their prime right now, I dont think the window is as open as you think

Ben Clemens: I’ll have to look into it more, I suppose. But I don’t htink anyone’s on the downswing yet. I do think that Haseley is kind of bad, though?

Ben Clemens: As a fellow UVa alum, I hate to say it

Ben Clemens: But he’s a fourht outfielder in starting outfielder’s clothing

Visitor: So I just read up on the issue (like you advised me to do)… F*** Gabe Kapler.

Ben Clemens: Had to edit you slightly, my friend.

Ben Clemens: Uh, yeah.

Jason: The NLE was the hardest division to predict last year because anyone but the Marlins could win it and whoever won it had a decent shot at a WS and here we are again

Ben Clemens: Yeah. Throw in NLC this year to that mix, with the Reds really getting down to brass tacks.

Ben Clemens: Although NLC winner doesn’t have as good of a shot at the world series, because I think the top-end of the NLE teams is better

Just curious : Is Wilmer a Utility guy for SF and Dubon gets regular time or is Wilmer the every day 2B?

Ben Clemens: That’s my interpretation of the situation for sure.

Ben Clemens: Oh right

Ben Clemens: You listed two things

Ben Clemens: The first one!

Ben Clemens: Is my interpretation

stever20: They didn’t win 108 games with Sale in the current condition that he’s in- who knows what they get from him.  Price is 2 years older.  And Kimbrel gone.  And Betts on what has been up to now by far a career year offensively.

Ben Clemens: Look, if you think they were just awful, then sure. Projections didn’t. And I tend to agree with the projections in this case.

Ben Clemens: Heck, they could still win the wild card now

Ben Clemens: Just, the path is a lot higher

Bookie Metts: Ive interpolated this chat into the 07-09 fangraphs chats and the numbers are encouraging i have to say

Ben Clemens: Rockies chats!

Ben Clemens: I’ll tell you this, the word interpolate is overused in financial circles but I hadn’t heard it much in baseball

Ben Clemens: So in some sense Monfort is just going along with the financialization of the sport

Ben Clemens: Now, it’s usually used in situations where it’s *close* to making sense

Ben Clemens: Rather than being like Will Ferrell in this video:

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: But hey, a step in the right direction

Mets fan: Did you see the Cespedes hype video? He must be confident he’ll be healthy for ST, but he still looks like he ate a Boar

Ben Clemens: Well chosen words. He might have eaten part of a boar!

Ben Clemens: I did see the video, and I just perpetually buy into Cespedes hype

Ben Clemens: So I suppose I’m just gonna say, I project him for 0 pa

Ben Clemens: and when he gets 200

Ben Clemens: I’m going to be very excited

Marky Mark: It seems clear that the reason San Diego wasn’t able to swing the Betts deal is because of Boston’s unwillingness to absorb Wil Myers’ contract. At this point, his $22M/year contract is more of an albatross than an annoyance for the Padres. Doesn’t it make sense for a rebuilding team with a low payroll to make a deal with San Diego to bring in Myers + prospects and promising AAA players? Am I crazy in thinking that a team like the Mariners or Royals would be a great fit for Myers, when included with Ty France or Austin Hedges, Hudson Potts, and a Padres’ top-30 pitching prospect? Obviously, the catch is that the opposing team would pick up all or most of the Myers contract, with little in return to the Padres.

Ben Clemens: Yes. I think this makes a ton of sense

Drunk Vince Coleman: I still think that Cespedes throw against the Angels where he initially misplayed the ball is the greatest throw I have ever seen. Am I wrong?

Ben Clemens: My top 3 is that one absurd Laureano rainbow, the Cespedes cannon, and this one Ichiro throw I’ll try to find

Ben Clemens: Where the ball is just on a rope

Pumpsie Green: I’d love to see Chris Davis in Colorado. Fine defence, and maybe he hits if the breaking balls don’t break as much?

Ben Clemens: I mean, they could have him for probably actual free.

Ben Clemens: maybe he hits if the brekain balls don’ break so much, but he’s not even doing much damage when he connects these days, sadly

Buscon Bob: What’s your background and why should we take anything that you say under consideration? Are you going to tow the company line with the team record standpoint?

Ben Clemens: Oh, you should only take it into consideration inasmuch as it makes sense to you

Ben Clemens: Not sure which company line you’re referring to there, but I like teams trying to win every year b/c it’s fun for fans

Ben Clemens: And my background is in interest rate trading, with honestly very little to do with baseball. I do like writing though!

scottz: If someone has to add a prospect or cash in the LA/BOS/MIN trade, who should it be? It was MIN’s prospect, but they traded him to LA, who flipped him to BOS. Anything more should come from LA is how I see it. What do you think?

Ben Clemens: I think the Twins and Dodgers will both end up kicking in a bit more. Given that it was a contingent trade, that makes sense to me.

Thornton Mellon: Chicken Strips numbers seem to scream “metrics darling.”  Am I crazy to think he could be a #2?  What do you think his ceiling is?

Ben Clemens: Yeah totally agree. The velo is a limiting factor but I thikn he could be the Angels’ best pitcher. His ceiling is Beuhrlesque

Drunk Vince Coleman: But do you know how to swing a bat, Ben? I only listen to takes about FIP beaters from guys that know how to hit.

Ben Clemens: I’m taking tennis lessons

Ben Clemens: At the moment

Ben Clemens: Does that count?

Pat G: Harper and JD Davis for Correa, Luis Arraez and Xavier Edward’s. 16 team dynasty, keep forever. Which return do you like better?

Ben Clemens: So I’m not a big fantasy baseball guy, though I’m starting to follow it more (more time on my hands as a writer than as a PM)

Ben Clemens: I will say that it generally seems like positional value is a thing of the past

Ben Clemens: which makes me think maybe the harper/davis side? Edwards isn’t even necessarily great if he hits his projections, I don’ think

Jason: Who is Chicken Strips?

Ben Clemens: Russ Stripling

Snid: Which Chat Host is a big fantasy guy?

Ben Clemens: Sporer, Zimmerman, Brad Johnson all have chats

Ben Clemens: Dan is probably alright for it as well

Ben Clemens: I’d probably put myself just below that tier for major leaguers, and then way below Eric if you include minor leaguers

Drunk Vince Coleman: Which Chat Host reads the most fantasy novels?

Ben Clemens: Gotta be me or Dan.

Ben Clemens: Although I’ve been on a fantasy kick of late so maybe me

Ben Clemens: Just finished the Stormlight Archive trilogy, highly recommend

Pumpsie Green: Would those three high-paid relievers for the Rockies be better off rebuilding their value elsewhere?

Ben Clemens: Hm, let’s see. This would be Davis, Shaw, McGee?

Ben Clemens: Uh, I dunno man. Their contracts are probably underwater, and I’m not sure that the Rockies are really into paying to get them to play elsewhere

Ben Clemens: Probably just keep em and roll the dice

Just curious : How excited are you for the 3rd kingkiller chronicles book this summer?

Ben Clemens: On a scale of 1-10

Ben Clemens: Like 13

Ben Clemens: Maybe 14

Ben Clemens: Oh hey, all-chat recommendation here

Ben Clemens: Every Christmas my family does a book exchange

Ben Clemens: The idea is that each person brings two books, wrapped up

Ben Clemens: And then you do a Yankee Swap type draft

Ben Clemens: With a wheel

Ben Clemens: So first person picks a book, second person can either steal that one or pick another wrapped book

Ben Clemens: But the catch is, you bring two books you’ve liked

Ben Clemens: Anyway the point is I have given a lot of people The Name of the Wind over the years

Ben Clemens: in that book swap and as a standalone gift

Snid: I asked Meg a fantasy question and got ripped a new one. Yikes

Ben Clemens: She’s looking out for you! Also it’s a bit at this point.

Safety Stegosaurus: How do you feel about the Rockies experimenting with a strict home/road platoon at one position? Desmond and Murphy at 1B since everyone is down on them anyway?

Ben Clemens: Omg I love this idea

Ben Clemens: The players would probably not go for it.

Ben Clemens: But wouldn’t that be kind of sweet? I need to think about it more but off the top of my head it’s genius.

Snid: How much does the bread matter in a sandwiche?

Ben Clemens: Totally underrated. I’m a sucker for good bread. Though I’m also probably a sandwich non-traditionalist in that I’m willing to call a burrito a sandwich depending on the filling

Fat Matt: I have a soft spot for Steven Souza Jr.  At a Yankees game a heckler was riding him the whole game.  He looked like a huge slob and was wearing a v neck undershirt below his wide open jersey.  Souza turned around and made his uniform into a v neck and I thought it was hilarious.  The heckler didn’t get it.

Ben Clemens: Wow uh, A+

Ben Clemens: Live baseball is so fun b/c of moments like this

Ben Clemens: Votto’s trolling is great too

Overbearing Padre: Will launch angle solve all of Hosmer’s problems?

Ben Clemens: I don’ think so? I think the launch angle revolution was always a little overplayed, and Hosmer’s issue is more that his natural swing generates power in weird ways. Cameron probably is just stewwwwwing in that deal.

Drunk Vince Coleman: Fun fact: I work with the Angel’s Stadium Votto heckler. Votto & him are friendly now.

Ben Clemens: !!!

Ben Clemens: We’ve got a celebrity here folks

sodo mojo: Best 2 player board game you enjoy?  I have a soft spot for Patchwork.

Ben Clemens: Never heard of Patchwork but I’ll put it on my list.

Ben Clemens: Vindication is fun as a two player game.

Ben Clemens: Asante

Ben Clemens: 7 Wonders Duel

Two Player Board Games: Jaipur and 7 Wonders Duel are the go-tos in my house

Ben Clemens: Yeah Jaipur and Asante are kinda similar I believe

Cody: What do you think of Peloton’s stock? Buy or sell? What about Casper?

Ben Clemens: Oh so, I want to be clear that a) i won’t offer any financial advice and b) you shouldn’t take mine even if i did

Ben Clemens: My job was all in very levered relative value trades focusing on bonds and swaps

Ben Clemens: Literal no clue about any stocks

Ben Clemens: Index funds are where I invest

Ben Clemens: Like a normie

Just curious : I always thought it was hilarious how Cameron goes to the Padres after multiple articles “belittling” Hosmer and then they sign him in a matter of weeks.

Ben Clemens: It never gets old.

Books!: I’m a huge fan of Brandon Sanderson’s Mistborn series and his other books but I haven’t dug into Stormlight yet.  The hype is warranted?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I loved it. He’s just a great writer overall. The scope is so grand that I’m curious what’s gonna happen, but yeah.

Just curious : Smallworld is a very solid two player game or Mystic Vale if you dont mind a touch of solitaire.

Ben Clemens: We have Smallworld but haven’t played in a while. I seem to remember it being fun and also quick.

Ben Clemens: Which is a good double.

Drunk Vince Coleman: If a burrito is a sandwich is a taco a flatbread?

Ben Clemens: Ooh spicy. Tacos are similar to sandiwches right?

mt: Is there news on Kingkiller 3 release that I hadn’t heard?

Ben Clemens: Oh dangit was that earlier reader just pump faking me?

Ben Clemens: I don’t have any info, just relaying things here.

Just curious : 8-20-20!!!

Ben Clemens: There you go.

Ben Clemens: Okay guys, the baseball part of this chat is winding down, so for the last 10 minutes or so I’ll try some quick takes on baseball but also mainly someone asked the sandwich continuum question:

Guest: https://flowingdata.com/2017/05/02/sandwich-alignment-chart/ what’s your overarching sandwich philosophy?  No cop outs.  Major discussion topic in Szym chats.

Ben Clemens: So I’m going to explain a new sandwich philosophy

Ben Clemens: With baseball takes sandwiched in

Ben Clemens: (bam synergy)

Ben Clemens: I think that you need one of two things to be a sandwich

Ben Clemens: (or both)

Ben Clemens: Traditional (or at least mostly traditional) sandwich ingredients

Ben Clemens: Or traditional sanwich form

Ben Clemens: So I think that an ice cream sandwich is a sandwich, and a burrito is also a sandwich, but a burrito with ice cream as a filling would not be a sandwich

Bob: So do you think the Dodgers don’t really value WAR as much as they do WAA?

Ben Clemens: Yeah exactly!

Ben Clemens: They’re good at making AR

5 Run Homer: I could crush an ice creak burrito though

Ben Clemens: Oh sure.

Ben Clemens: Sounds amazing

Ben Clemens: I just don’t know what it’d be

Drunk Vince Coleman: Still waiting on the video of that Ichiro throw. He was throwing a baseball right? Does that count as a baseball question?

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: found it!

Ben Clemens: (honestly I just forgot to look before)

Ben Clemens: The ball just never gets up at all!

Guest: Cop out….

Ben Clemens: Haha, I disagree!

Ben Clemens: I think hot dog is still the sticking point

Ben Clemens: And I’d say no

Ben Clemens: But the old ‘if the bun splits’ question always gets me

Guest: I agree re hot dog!  Feud over.

Ben Clemens: Phew. Glad we settled that

devin has cheeto lips: What am I missing about all the Laureano hype? I watch him last year and yes, a + fielder, but his bat lags….I see 15/20 and maybe a .265 avg. at best. You?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t really get it either. Down on him relative to, say, ADP

Ben Clemens: now in real baseball, he does a lot of things you like

Ben Clemens: And if you buy the defense playing in center, he’s good

Ben Clemens: But I don’t get it in fantasy

Simon: What are the Dodgers going to do with Tony Gonsolin?  Seems too good to relegate to the pen.  What is he like 7th on the starter depth chart?  Maybe 6th now that Stripling is gone…

Ben Clemens: Yeah just like, loldodgers

Ben Clemens: I think he’s good enough to be a starter, hope they keep giving him starter reps, and the way it works, he’ll be a reliever in the playoffs b/c they’re so stacked

DJ Tanner: The Angels home opener is vs the Astros and they’ve given out 800 tickets to Dodgers fan to heckle the entire game. Can’t wait for season to start!

Ben Clemens: Wait is this true???

Ben Clemens: Amazing

2-D: Would you like to see any changes made to the current replay system?

Ben Clemens: Yeah. I’d like to see it be umps-only

Ben Clemens: They pick, none of this nonsense manager stuff

Short Pants: Per your article…what would you accept as a valid trade proposal for Bryan Reynolds? Valera/Naylor? As a Bucs fan, thats an overpay, but it would almost have to be for Reynolds.

Ben Clemens: Maybe Valera/Espino? Think two position players might not work, but if you’re willing to accept a pitcher

Ben Clemens: I’m very high on Reynolds though

Ben Clemens: Not sure the Indians would do that

5 Run Homer: Follow any sports besides baseball?

Ben Clemens: I’m conversant in pretty much everything except college football.

Ben Clemens: Veering towards competent when it comes to tennis, college basketball, and NBA

Pumpsie Green: Switch to an age-based compensation model, with all hitters 29 and older automatically free agents?

Ben Clemens: I’d just massively increase minimums and arb salaries

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a strong axe to grind when it comes to getting free agents more money. The guys getting screwed are the young ones.

Ben Clemens: Pay Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty more

Ben Clemens: and Walker Buehler and Cody Bellinger and…

Ben Clemens: Now obviously Snell signed an extension, but he did it due to the cudgel of pre-arb and arb

Ben Clemens: We are gonna end the chat on this note:

DJ Tanner: https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2020-02-05/dodgers-astros…

Ben Clemens: The heckling plan for the Astros opener. Thanks so much to DJ Tanner on the 1s and 2s

Ben Clemens: Because what a great story

Ben Clemens: That’s the kind of fun baseball needs.

Ben Clemens: Have a great day everyone. Craig Edwards is next, he’s great, tip your waiters.