Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 2/8/21

February 8, 2021

2:01	Ben Clemens: Hey guys, welcome to part two of our now-weekly Monday chatstravaganza. The hot stove is heating up, so there will be plenty to talk about. Let’s get right to it.

2:01	Guest: As it stands today where does the Jays Starting Rotation rank in the American League.

2:01	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna be lazy here and just use our Depth Charts WAR projections

2:01	Ben Clemens: I find they’re pretty good as a first cut, not the end-all be-all

2:02	Ben Clemens: We have them as the fourth-best rotation in the AL, which feels a little strong, but I totally buy Robbie Ray’s above-average projection, which is doing a lot of work

2:02	Ben Clemens: I would probably have them closer to 6 or 7, so call it the 4-8 range

2:03	Kelder23: True or False: The Schoop signing was a huge value for the Tigers

2:03	Ben Clemens: True

2:03	Ben Clemens: Totally agree with Brendan here:

2:03	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-tigers-signed-jonathan-schoop-and-its-…

2:03	Ben Clemens: Surprised there wasn’t more of a market for him

2:03	Kelder23: When do we announce the Kris Bryant for Dustin May trade?

2:03	Ben Clemens: Presumably never?

2:04	Ben Clemens: That doesn’t sound like a trade the Dodgers would do, they basically keep prospects like May

2:04	Ben Clemens: You can argue that Verdugo fit that bill, but he wasn’t a pitcher, and Mookie is a lot better than Bryant

2:04	Ben Clemens: Just feels like it’s giving up a ton of value for not enough in return. Just re-sign Turner

2:04	TB: When are the crowd sourced radio broadcast results coming out? (or did they already and I missed it)

2:05	Ben Clemens: Probably the week after next. I might need to solicit a few more responses for one or two teams, and next week is Prospect Week, so there’s not enough space on the calendar then

2:05	Ben Clemens: I’m very excited for prospect week, though, and even conned Eric and Meg into giving me a prospects article somehow

2:05	Okra: Hey Ben, so why did the A’s not just sign Freddy Galvis for $2M and keep their prospects instead of their (cash neutral) trade for Elvis Andrus? Doesn’t make sense to me.

2:05	Billy G: Does Elvis Andrus have anything left in the tank? Relatedly, how do you see the AL West shaking out?

2:06	Ben Clemens: I haven’t read Eric’s article on it yet, but I kind of hate it? It’s just such a risk to take

2:06	Ben Clemens: He’s been pretty bad in his last thousand PA’s

2:07	Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s a bad defender, but I do think he might just be done as a hitter

2:07	Ben Clemens: I would probably prefer Galvis as well, which is lame, because I really want Andrus to be good

2:07	Mr. Fister: Now that Eno and Kiley are gone, someone needs to continue the trend of posting Matt Damon’s thoughts on things. It is a fangraphs chat tradition.

2:07	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

2:08	Ben Clemens: Well that didn’t feel like a setup at all

2:08	Alabama Hot Pocket: Can you make one argument (without mentioning 2014-2015) for Dayton Moore still having a GM job? His history of drafting and player development is among the worst I’ve ever seen. A lot of KC fans around here are worried that the WS win gave him unlimited leash.

2:09	Ben Clemens: I think that he has a much longer leash than normal, but if you want a positive comment about Dayton Moore, I’ll say this: he understands that fans in general enjoy getting to see the same players continue to excel

2:09	Ben Clemens: That’s faint praise, of course

2:09	Ben Clemens: There are WAY more parts to being a GM

2:10	Ben Clemens: But yeah, I would say he has a long leash b/c of the WS and that if he didn’t, we’d be hearing a lot more about his hot seat/wobbly chair

2:10	kjl: Preferred tortilla chip and salsa?

2:10	Ben Clemens: I actually have a very specific answer to this. We get this brand of chips I’ve only seen on the west coast, Rosalinda’s

2:10	Ben Clemens: With Papalote salsa, basically any flavor will do

2:11	Kaiser Soze: is the greatest trick the dodgers ever pulled…hiring Friedman away from TB?

2:11	Ben Clemens: lol

2:11	Ben Clemens: It really did pan out well

2:11	Ben Clemens: I don’t know what to say aside from that, what a great hire

2:12	Jeff: Oooh, I noticed Ray made some Giolito-esque changes to his delivery. Any recent reads on him to check out?

2:12	Ben Clemens: Yeah, he went full Giolito, but it worked TERRIBLY

2:12	Ben Clemens: he actually switched back to his old delivery late in the year and looked better

2:13	Ben Clemens: I wrote this, conveniently enough, when he signed in TOR

2:13	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/robbie-ray-stays-in-toronto/

2:13	Bart: Why do you buy a positive Ray outlook?

2:13	Ben Clemens: Basically because I’m willing to throw out 2020

2:13	Ben Clemens: He tried a new delivery and it worked poorly

2:14	Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’s going to be an ace, but we’re projecting 2.5 WAR, which is kind of close to his career average

2:14	Kelder23: What do we do long term for these guys who struggled for 60 games in 2020, like Baez, Bryant, JDM? Will they probably bounce back?

2:14	Ben Clemens: I’m going to mostly ignore 2020 statistics where I can

2:15	Ben Clemens: That’s too simplistic of a process, but it’s a good first cut

2:15	Ben Clemens: Mostly ignore, then go back in and look for warning signs, but discount them a bit in your head

2:15	Ben Clemens: Some of them were surely due to talent erosion, but it’s just SO hard to separate real from fake in such a small cut

2:15	Ben Clemens: You’d be better served to have your prior be ‘ignore it’ and then start engaging with it as we get more info in 2021

2:16	Derek: Is it weird to be kind of into the Angels rotation? The return of Ohtani! Is Dylan Bundy actually an ace now? Will Canning keep developing? Heaney and Quintana are fun lefties! Also present: Alex Cobb.

2:16	Ben Clemens: Yeah I like the Angels’ rotation, even if I think I would have gone a different way than Cobb for the 5/6 spot

2:16	Ben Clemens: I also really like Patrick Sandoval

2:16	Ben Clemens: We have them as a middling rotation, which is the all-time best place an Angels rotation has ever been

2:16	brad penny for your thoughts: do you think an OF of TON, Bader and Carlson can actually hold their own or be just under average per zips?

2:17	Ben Clemens: I think they’ll be average or above average overall, and htat Cardinals fans will HATE it and call for Bader to get traded

2:17	Ben Clemens: I don’t know if there are any players who combine ‘good on-field production’ and ‘absolute fanbase despair’ as much as Bader

2:17	Marc: Not that I know the numbers behind it, but which of the Dodgers’ influx of proceeds from winning the World Series or the Padres’ influx of talent was more influential in the Dodgers’ decision to be the only team over the luxury tax (so far) in 2021?

2:18	Ben Clemens: I don’t know the exact split, but I think the Padres’ influx of talent was more important

2:18	Ben Clemens: If you’re way out ahead of the competition, it’s harder to argue for going above the CBT level

2:18	Ben Clemens: You’re just not getting enough bang for your buck

2:19	Ben Clemens: When you get into a close race, all of the sudden those marginal wins have way more value

2:19	bohknowsbmore: Felix hernandez… o/u 10 ML starts, 5.00 ERA with the Orioles in 2021?

2:19	Ben Clemens: 🙁

2:19	Ben Clemens: under 10, over 5.00

2:19	Ben Clemens: ugh

2:20	RJ: Mets don’t sign any premium free agents. Not the end of the world but nevertheless disappointing. Was their complete disinterest in Realmuto a retrospective big misstep, especially given the very reasonable contract he ultimately received?

2:20	Ben Clemens: I think it really depends on what they get done on extensions this year

2:20	Ben Clemens: If they extend Lindor and Conforto, then signing McCann makes a lot more sense

2:21	Ben Clemens: I was not enamored with the free agent class this year, to be honest

2:21	Ben Clemens: ex-Realmuto

2:21	Ben Clemens: So I’m not sure if I’d have gone the McCann route, but if they think they’re signing big deals for Conforto and Lindor, and potentially one of Stro/Thor, I see why you would go cheap at catcher

2:22	Guest: Man, Matt Damon just reminds me of Boston, which reminds me of Brady, which reminds me that good things happen to bad people, because justice does not exist in this dojo, does it? No, Sensei.

2:22	Ben Clemens: Good things happening to bad people is a great inversion of the normal saying

2:22	Jeff: Dayton Moore just drafted Witt and Lacy back to back, got outstanding debuts from Singer and Bubic, and NOW Royals fans are complaining? Oh boi

2:23	Ben Clemens: Yeah this is certainly not the most hopeless the Royals have been in the last 5 years

2:23	Slew: Cleveland has to be shopping Jose Ramirez, right? Or if they’re not, shouldn’t they be?

2:23	Ben Clemens: I don’t really see why they should be, but I’m sure they are

2:23	Ben Clemens: I don’t generally have a problem with teams who aren’t at all competitive and have no prospect of being competitive building for the future

2:24	Ben Clemens: Like, the Rockies trading Arenado was always going to happen, and the sad part is the process that led to it

2:24	Ben Clemens: But if you’re Cleveland, what are you hoping for

2:24	Ben Clemens: Are you hoping to get an underpriced batting stud (like Ramirez) and a Cy Young winner on a rookie contract?

2:24	Ben Clemens: You have that!

2:25	Ben Clemens: If you want to build a competitor on a budget, you have to get lucky

2:25	Ben Clemens: The Indians got lucky!

2:25	Ben Clemens: Why trade that luck? Are circumstances going to somehow be better for them in four years?

2:25	Todd Bonzalez: Would the Reds signing Villar to be the SS cement their status as the worst Defense in the league for the upcoming season? Outside of Barnhart, best defenders would be Senzel in center and Suarez at 3B…

2:25	Ben Clemens: Depends on if he plays every day, I think

2:25	FunFella13: Ben, Last week you wrote that you weren’t sure whether Trevor Bauer’s signing was good for baseball. I’m curious what you think a good-for-baseball outcome would be for his free agency? There’s been enough writing here about the dwindling share of revenue that players get. Thanks

2:26	Ben Clemens: Oh, easy. I think teams making a big deal out of it to the point where he has to actually express some remorse and say he’s done something wrong would be the best outcome

2:27	Ben Clemens: I don’t have a problem with Bauer signing a big contract, I just think an acknowledgement of what he did, and that he was wrong to do it, would go a long way

2:27	Ben Clemens: There are a lot of people who listen to what he says

2:27	Ben Clemens: For better or worse

2:27

Moose_Bolton: Wanted to say that I really liked your article on the Bauer signing. I thought you did a good job of articulating why he is a controversial (to put it lightly) figure but also that he is quite a good pitcher. I’ve found it interesting that some people can’t seem to realize that I am capable of thinking he’s a fairly toxic person while also thinking it is good that the Dodgers would pay a player the amount they did. I don’t think it is hypocritical to feel both ways.

2:28

Ben Clemens: Thanks! I probably won’t answer any more Bauer article questions, but I’ll just say I was shocked by the responses to it, but not that shocked. A guy who notoriously has a big internet following of like-minded trolls seems to attract, well, like-minded trolling, in a ‘let’s make everything the Culture War’ kind of way

2:29	Cove Dweller: Has San Diego done enough for their pen this offseason? Do you think it’s likely they try to use some of their rotation out of the pen in the regular season?

2:29	Ben Clemens: Yeha, I do

2:29	Ben Clemens: (to the second part)

2:29	Ben Clemens: I think that their plan is going to be see how the pen looks in the first half, then make deadline acquisitions

2:29	Ben Clemens: I would probably do the same in their spot

2:30	Moonlight Graham: Who will be the next player to get 30M AAV? Lindor or someone else?

2:30	Ben Clemens: Lindor, but Lindor vs. field is a good one for this

2:30	5 Run Homer: As a Blue Jays fan, I can say that our perception of Kevin Pillar was pretty much the same as Cards fans see Bader. Bad hitting + no walks + great fielding = under-appreciated player

2:31	Ben Clemens: Good-glove CF’s are always underrated it seems

2:31	Ben Clemens: Bader is kind of the logical extreme of that, in that he’s a realllllly good outfielder and I’d say a worse bat than Pillar

2:32	Ben Clemens: but generally agree

2:32	Greg: Which would be a worse indicator of the odds of success for the Reds this year: Dee Strange-Gordon starting at SS on opening day, or Jose Garcia starting at SS on opening day?

2:32	Ben Clemens: DSG

2:32	Ben Clemens: That would just not be a good outcome, it’s not like no team has ever thought to play him at short before

2:32	Dee Arby: Should the Phillies let Scott Kingery play everyday in CF and just see what he does? He had some helium to him, and most prospects don’t just come in and rake. Is his star still bright or has it dimmed?

2:32	Ben Clemens: They should let him play everyday somewhere

2:33	Ben Clemens: With that contract there’s a lot of value to finding out if you have a long-term piece

2:33	5 Run Homer: Dee hasn’t been a shortstop since like his minor league days with the Dodgers I thought?

2:33	Ben Clemens: Well that’s kinda what I mean

2:33	Ben Clemens: He got moved off short to second b/c that’s where his defense played well, and it’s not like he’s gotten faster/smoother

2:34	Ben Clemens: He got moved into CF for a bit, even, because he didn’t really pop at second

2:34	Ben Clemens: Not a great sign that he’s a somehow undiscovered plus defensive shortstop

2:34	Derek: I see JBJ as kind of a Bader-lite, but found myself always overestimating his value because of how damn fun he was to watch play CF! Interesting to hear I may be in the minority there.

2:34	Ben Clemens: Well, people who read FanGraphs are decidedly not the kinds of fans I’m talking about here

2:34	Ben Clemens: Or, that’s probalby not fair

2:34	Ben Clemens: People who chat at FanGraphs aren’t who I mean

2:35	CubFan: What are your expectations for Yordan Alvarez?

2:35	Ben Clemens: I think he’ll be a top 10 bat in baseball

2:35	Appa Yip Yip: Would you rather have an average starting rotation but a bonkers offense, or an average offence with a bonkers rotations?

2:35	Ben Clemens: Personally, bonkers offense

2:35	Ben Clemens: I like those types of games

2:36	Ben Clemens: I like pitching duels too

2:36	Ben Clemens: But a lot of my enjoyment of those is how different they feel from a regular game. If you start winning every game 3-2, it loses its luster a bit

2:36	Wakka: Who finishes with the best record in the NL between the Mets, braves, dodgers, or pads

2:37	Ben Clemens: I’ll take the Dodgers by a hair over the Padres, and by a ton over the Mets and Braves. Not only are the NL West teams better, but I also think the dregs of the NLW will be a little worse

2:37	5 Run Homer: You can only watch so many three pitch strikeouts before that starts to colour your perception of a player

2:37	Ben Clemens: I think that’s a reasonable way to put it

2:37	Ben Clemens: If you’re a casual observer, you see the strikeouts a lot and the great defense only rarely

2:37	major puig baseball: so what now for the dodgers? the justin turner standoff can’t last forever right, but what happens if that doesn’t happen? I assume that’s the only piece left to fall into place at this point though.

2:38	Ben Clemens: That’s basically it. Deciding if they’ll bring Turner back, trade for a bargain 3B, or give Edwin Rios some run

2:38	Ben Clemens: I don’t thikn they’ll do anything else, but I don’t think they really should do anything else

2:38	Chucky: What’s your perception of AL ROY Kyle Lewis? A two month all star, or a guy who got lucky just long enough to fit in the window?

2:39	Ben Clemens: I think that he’s going to be an average regular going forward, with upside for more if he can rein in the strikeouts

2:39	Gigi: Does a supposedly new baseball that suppresses offense also suppress value for high-end SPs?

2:40	Uncle Spike: MLB just announced that they would be deadening the ball in 2021. Initial thoughts?

2:40	Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen this announcement yet, gonna dig around for it now

2:41	Ben Clemens: So, I would say that if it actually results in KBO-level offense reduction

2:41	Ben Clemens: Then it will reduce the value of contact-suppressing pitchers a bit

2:41	Ben Clemens: And that’s basically top end guys, so yeah

2:42	Appa Yip Yip: FWIW casual fans absolutely loved Pillar because of all the diving catches and his, apparently, cute butt. It was only the obsessive weirdos like me who were trying to shove him out the door.

2:42	Ben Clemens: Ah then it’s totally unlike Bader lol

2:42	Ben Clemens: Bader is mostly liked by nerdy Cards fans and pretty unpopular on the street, as it were

2:42	billyjojimbob: Buying in on a Benintendi bounceback? I feel like the Red Sox will totally suck or surprise people if everything goes right. Everything. There is no boring middle space.

2:42	Ben Clemens: Totally! I’m not saying he’s going to be an all star, but I’m a seller that he’s just going to wash out

2:43	Gordon Dee Strange: Do you have a sense how much more sophisticated the proprietary analytics that mlb clubs have is than the info you can find here, on b-ref, etc.?

2:43	Ben Clemens: Much more sophisticated, particularly in terms of working with pitchers — grips, spin, that kinda stuff

2:44	Ben Clemens: Another huge deal is that they have far more complete minor league Trackman data

2:44	Ben Clemens: We basically get those ad hoc

2:44	Neutral: What are the Padres plans with Kim?

2:44	Ben Clemens: I think they don’t know where, but expect him to be a long-term piece

2:45	Ben Clemens: Seems pretty reasonable to me! He looked awesome in the KBO, feels like a steal of a contract, it’s not as though they have a second baseman and two corner outfielders who are locked in forever

2:45	5 Run Homer: If all they do is deaden the ball wouldn’t that tip the balance too far towards pitchers? The bouncy ball is all that’s keeping strikeouts from completely overrunning the game

2:45	Ben Clemens: Depends on how much they deaden it by. Looks like some of the analysts who Eno talked to thought it would be 5% off of home run rates

2:45	Ben Clemens: If that’s the case, it won’t be the end of things

2:45	Ben Clemens: If it’s more like 10%, things will be bad

2:46

Marc: MLB.com recently released their rotation rankings and placed the Yankees fourth, while Depth Charts has them first. However, this seems to be putting a lot of faith that both their starters returning from an extensive absence (Kluber, Taillon, Montgomery, Severino, German) won’t get injured again and their minor league depth (Garcia, Schmidt, King) won’t bottom out from facing MLB hitters for an extended period of time. What percentage would you put the rotation at actually finishing top-5 in WAR?

2:46	Ben Clemens: Oh, that’s totally why

2:46	Ben Clemens: Depth Charts projections have a hard time accounting for pitchers returning from injury, basically the Yankees rotation in a nutshell

2:46	Ben Clemens: We’re not doing probabilistic weights for their likelihood of pitching or something

2:47	Ben Clemens: I’ll give them 45% at finishing top 5 in WAR

2:47	Ben Clemens: and also, if Taillon and Kluber both make 25 starts, I think they’ll be the best

2:47	Ben Clemens: But take depth charts with a grain of salt, particularly for pitchers with questionable health

2:47	The Opener: Would Kevin Kiermaier fit in that Pillar/Bader group?

2:48	Ben Clemens: Off the top of my head, I think he was too good on offense at peak to quite count

2:48	Ben Clemens: He had three pretty solid offensive seasons

2:48	Ben Clemens: But current Kiermaier maybe

2:49

dag.nah.bit: Dayton Moore alluded the need for a lefty bat in January (Alec Lewis reported)…. which LHB is available that would make the most sense to them? Lewis compiled a nice list including Brad Miller, Marwin, Gardner, etcetera. Who would fit best from the available LHB in the market? Thanks for chatting

2:49	Ben Clemens: Miller for me

2:49	Ben Clemens: I think that Miller is really underrated and might just be an excellent starter

2:50	5 Run Homer: What do you expect from Luis Severino this year? He was so good in 17-18 but once he’s back it will have been like two years since he pitched in the major leagues

2:50	Ben Clemens: Boy, just no idea! I don’t think that our Depth Charts projectoin makes THAT much sense

2:50	Ben Clemens: only 85 innings, but at an elite rate?

2:51	Ben Clemens: I think it’ll either be more innings or worse rate

2:51	Guest: Is Nimmo an antiBader? Mets fans are constantly knocking him for his defense in CF, and underplaying the counterpoint that his offense still makes him quite valuable.

2:51	Ben Clemens: Yes, which is why Nimmo for Bader is such an enduringly fun trade to think about

2:52	Ben Clemens: I think Nimmo would be a lot more appreciated if they didn’t keep trying to force him to play center on a team known for forcingn people into tough defensive assignments

2:52	Marie: Do you place Angels, Houston and Minn ahead of Jays in rotation?

2:52	Ben Clemens: Houston yes, Minn equal, Angels no

2:52	Victor Cano: Ben, dou you agree the idea that Fernando Tatis is the face of game of baseball?. Greetings from México.

2:53	Ben Clemens: This is a close one, but Tatis is in the top five — I’m not sure I’d name a ‘face of baseball.’ I’d have it as Lindor, Soto, Trout, Tatis, and Mookie

2:53	sam: do they crack down on sticky stuff this year deaden ball = less HRs no sticky = less SOs

2:53	Ben Clemens: I’ll believe it when I see it

2:53	Ben Clemens: Cracking down on sticky stuff is one of those things that the league says a lot but rarely acts on

2:53	Jeff: How into consideration should teams take pitchers leaping from 60 to 162 to, once the owners have their say, fewer?

2:54	Ben Clemens: I think they should take it EXTREMELY into consideration and I think a lot of teams should just run six-man rotations this year

2:54	Ben Clemens: I wrote about it last month

2:54	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-costs-and-benefits-of-six-man-rotation…

2:54	SpaceLimo: Does Bauer opt out if he has another cy young caliber season?

2:54	Ben Clemens: Nah, but very likely after 2022

2:54	Ben Clemens: Opting out before a potentially cba-shortened season seems like a weird plan

2:54	Fancy: What would you rather have. 8 Mookie Betts type player in your line up or 8 trout type players

2:55	Ben Clemens: 8 Mookies because I think he could play the infield better

2:55	Migos: When the Yankees decided to bring Kluber and Taillon aboard, was it just a crap shoot in terms of counting on their health? Or did the presence of Cressey, who’d worked with Klubot, and any other due diligence and medical knowledge matter?

2:55	Ben Clemens: I think it’s a little bit of both

2:56	Ben Clemens: They absolutely did plenty of due diligence, and probably have a much better handle on it than our public knowledge

2:56	Ben Clemens: On the other hand, it’s still a crapshoot

2:56	Ben Clemens: If you say this guy has a 57% chance of being healthy, and I think it’s 34%, well, they’re both still crapshoots

2:56	Dee Arby: I want to write about a different sport, but my writing is usually stream of consciousness. Would you have any advice on how to structure an article better for mass consumption?

2:57	Ben Clemens: This will feel like a cop out, but my best advice would just be to keep writing, keep writing, keep writing

2:57	Ben Clemens: I’m a stream of consciousness person by nature, but writing hundreds and hundreds of articles has slowly smoothed down the processes in my head to where it feels a little less that way

2:58	BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Think LaRussa lets Moncada and co. run a bit more than they have?

2:58	Ben Clemens: I do

2:58

Guest: It doesn’t seem like the Mets really truly want to keep putting Nimmo in CF- I think they would have loved it if Lagares stayed healthy, or Broxton or Marisnick clicked, or if Springer had signed. It just seems like not a lot of good options have been available. And those who are have not turned out to be slam dunks- if they’d signed Cain or Pollock, they still would have probably ended up trotting out Nimmo at times

2:58	Ben Clemens: Yeah, totally fair

2:58	Ben Clemens: There are other spots where the Mets have chosen to shoehorn in poor defense

2:58	Ben Clemens: CF hasn’t really been one of them

2:59	Ben Clemens: It’s just that because they do so much Dom-in-left and JD-at-third’ing, fans’ weariness is high before Nimmo even takes the field

2:59	Ben Affleck: BEN. AFFLECK?

2:59	Moonlight Graham: Would you rather have 8 Zobrists and field everywhere somewhat competently or 8 prime Pujols and mash?

2:59	Ben Clemens: Pujols, unless you mean scaled to equal talent

3:00	Ben Clemens: Like prime Pujols is an inner-circle HoF’er, prime Zobrist was an All Star

3:00

MikeM: It appears the Yankees strategy with SParting pitching this year is to grab as many high ceiling guys as possible with the hopes they hit on one or more of them. The team is good enough to make the playoffs even with the injury uncertainty and their downfall the last few years was lack of high end SP. I think its a sound strategy from them.

3:00

Yanks: I think the Yankees are maybe hoping not so much for a ton of innings out of those guys but to have two guys out of the nonCole to give good October innings so it’s not, like, Happ. So in a way, I am not super optimistic about their ability to all be good all year, but more optimistic about the chance that at least two of the many nonColes could be great for 50 innings in Sept-Oct

3:01	Ben Clemens: I agree with this, but I also think they could just get a little lucky and have Kluber and Sevy be reasonably durable

3:01	Boone Logan: Should mlb have a pitch clock akin to the 24-second shot clock in the NBA?

3:01	Ben Clemens: I’m pro-pitch clock but I’d want to talk to Triple-A pitchers about it before actually implementing it

3:02	45 blows billygoats: With so much to prove, who do you thinks rises to the top of the STL OF now they all have opportunity?

3:02	Ben Clemens: Carlson, I suppose

3:02	Ben Clemens: But I think that all three of them will be average or better players this year

3:02	Mr. Fister: Dayton Moore should be fired simply for letting Nicky Lopez play on an MLB team. Hopefully Hanser Alberto shuttles him off to the bench/minors/little league where he belongs.

3:02	Ben Clemens: I’ve seen Nicky Lopez play live exactly once, in the AFL

3:02	Ben Clemens: He hit a laser-beam homer to right

3:02	Ben Clemens: I bought in

3:02	Ben Clemens: And yeah, I can’t prove it, but I think he’s hit zero homers since then

3:03	Mr. Byrnes: Robles vs Pache, rest of career (offense and defense, real life value)?

3:03	Ben Clemens: I’ll take Pache, but they’re close

3:03	LB: If the Reds end up with both Villar and Amed Rosario, is that a fine outcome?

3:03	Ben Clemens: I believe so. I’m higher on Rosario than it seems the consensus is, and Villar isn’t terrible as a utility guy

3:03	MB: Cleveland isn’t shopping Ramirez, per Ken Rosenthal.

3:04	Ben Clemens: Well, that’s a relief

3:04	Ben Clemens: They really shouldn’t be shopping him, it’s self-defeating

3:04	Ben Clemens: Even if they’re going to trade Lindor

3:04	Mr. Fister: He hit one homer last year, and it surprised even him.

3:04	Mr. Fister: Nicky Lopez that is.

3:04	Ben Clemens: Yeah beware limited looks in scouting

3:05	Brose Canseco: how much importance should be placed on RH/LH balance in lineups (eg are the yankees too RH?) and batting order (i.e. not too many same handed batters in a row) should managers just not worry and try to get as many at bats as possible for their best hitters?

3:05	Ben Clemens: The latter

3:05	Ben Clemens: Lineup balance is a tiebreaker, but too many people think it’s a key factor

3:05	Ben Clemens: If that makes sense

3:05	Dan: Having an enforced pitch clock in the minors will speed up the game in the majors because pitchers will be used to pitching faster, right? Or will they quickly slow down if it’s never adopted in the majors?

3:05	Ben Clemens: There IS an enforced pitch clock in the minors

3:05	Ben Clemens: And it hasn’t had much effect

3:05	Ben Clemens: So I’m going to say not much effect

3:06	B: How does MLB make the product on the field more appealing? Are there any good ideas to reduce the amount of TTO in today’s game?

3:06	Ben Clemens: I am a fan of the deaden the ball/shrink the strike zone combo

3:06	Ben Clemens: I also think they should get rid of the popping off the base rule, but that’s neither here nor there

3:06	WonTon: Were you a fan of the 154 game season/expanded playoffs?

3:07	Ben Clemens: I’m not a big expanded playoffs fan, either stylistically or for the long-term health of the game

3:07	Ben Clemens: I’m less confident on the long-term health thing, but I’m generally in agreement with Dan Szymborski there

3:07	Ben Clemens: Basically if you make regular-season wins less valuable (and in general, the more playoff teams the less valuable each win is), players will get less money

3:07	Ben Clemens: Because teams will value their marginal contributions less

3:08	Dannypoolbon: I know some pitchers lick their hand but what about straight spitting on the ball before throwing it. Would that be illegal somehow?

3:08	Ben Clemens: Yeah, spitballs are illegal

3:08	bighen: Albert Almora a legit glove guy in CF or just better than Nimmo/Conforto etc. ?

3:09	Ben Clemens: Way more the second

3:09	Ben Clemens: He’s above average but not by a ton, from everything I’ve seen

3:10	Dannypoolbon: Do you think Bauer/cole ect get called out for the substances they use while they are pitching?

3:10	Ben Clemens: I mean, no?

3:10	Ben Clemens: Basically no

3:10	Ben Clemens: Everyone uses it now

3:10	Ben Clemens: Not now: most everyone has most always used it

3:11	Matt (Oceanside): Do you think there is actually a good chance that Gavin Lux outperforms Jake Croneworth this year @ 2B?

3:11	Ben Clemens: I do for sure

3:11	Ben Clemens: I was high on Cronenworth as a trade piece, but I don’t think his 2020 outcome is anything close to a central case

3:12	Ben Clemens: They both had similar batting lines in the minors in 2019

3:12	Ben Clemens: I don’t see why you should be far from 50/50 in terms of who will be better in 2021

3:13	Brose Canseco: does it seem like there are fewer switch hitters than there used to be? Is it possible that switch hitting is now discouraged at youth and developmental levels?

3:13	BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Should I give up the dream of Buxton ever going for the Eric Davis 30/50 special?

3:13	Ben Clemens: Sadly, I think so

3:13	Ben Clemens: I want to be wrong, but 50 steals just feels like a no at this point

3:14	BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Should I give up the dream of anybody going for the Eric Davis 30/50 special? Related, 1987 Eric Davis ruled.

3:14	Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s kind of the problem

3:14	Ben Clemens: I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see much prospect for a 50 steal guy who is also that much ohf a power threat

3:15	Corkage: Are you related to Roger Clemens?

3:15	Ben Clemens: Probably a non-zero amount, but also certainly very distantly at best

3:16	R Acuna: Challenge accepted!

3:16	Ben Clemens: I hope you prove me wrong!

3:16	Zach: 2014 home run rates with 2020 strike out rates does not seem like it would be a sport that many would like to watch

3:16	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I hope MLB is VERY sure that isn’t going to be the outcome of this deadened ball

3:17	Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical, because they goof this stuff up EVERY time

3:17	Ben Clemens: skeptical, but still hopeful. the MLB story

3:17	Matt (Oceanside): Follow-up, I was unaware that Croneworth was so good in the minors in 2019. It feels like Lux shot up prospect rankings after his 2019 all the way to #2 on most boards (some #4 I think). Why didn’t Croneworth get as much love?

3:17	Ben Clemens: Stickiness, basically

3:19	Ben Clemens: I know that sounds reductive, but seriously, it just comes down to the fact that Cronenworth wasn’t a big-ticket prospect before 2019

3:20	Ben Clemens: To a lesser extent, there are legit reasons to think that

3:20	Ben Clemens: Like, hey, if Cronenworth had been better in 2018, he would have been more of a prospect

3:20	Ben Clemens: But I think that he got moved up a little too slowly due to not fitting the ‘top prospect’ bill enough

3:21

MoonBeam McSwine: It’s a nice story about MLB and the ball, but it states.. the ball will remain within current statistical testing criteria.. the most variable component of testing is the C.O.R. (coefficient of reflexivity) The higher values being most prone to reaction/bounce. Lowering the variance while within the same specficiation range makes for a more consistent result.. no more.. no less..

3:21	Ben Clemens: That’s a wonderful thing for them to say and I would argue it doesn’t even remotely track with research on this

3:21	Ben Clemens: The current statistical testing criteria is comically wide for COR, and so reducing the range will be good

3:22	Ben Clemens: But to briefly quote eno’s article

3:22	Ben Clemens: the memo from the office of the commissioner reads, explaining that this change had two effects — reducing the weight of the ball by less than one-tenth of an ounce, and also a slight decrease in the bounciness of the ball as measured by the COR and CCOR.

3:24	Brose Canseco: The ball used during the 2019 postseason seemed deadened compared to the regular season

3:24	Ed: Good piece from Eric on the Andrus/Krush trade just went up. Doesn’t make me feel better about the A’s end. Think the A’s FO has backslid a bit (or perhaps other FO caught up a bit)?

3:24	Ben Clemens: I do think that indeed

3:24	Ben Clemens: I don’t really get the trade for them

3:24	Ben Clemens: It’s hard to stay consistently ahead, basically

3:25	Jimmy: Did you watch the Superbowl?

3:25	Ben Clemens: I did, and in my generic football fan opinion, it was lame

3:25	Ben Clemens: I want to see Patrick Mahomes throwing moonbeams and winning or losing a 49-48 game

3:25	Ben Clemens: not that nonsense

3:25	Ben Clemens: And that’s as someone who played defensive end in high school

3:26	5 Run Homer: Oakland’s current DH to start the season looks to be some guy named Seth Brown, who depth charts projects to put up -0.9 WAR and a 73 wRC+. That’s… not ideal

3:26	Ben Clemens: I don’t think that Seth Brown is that bad

3:26	Ben Clemens: I’m surprised by the projections being so uniformly awful

3:26	Ben Clemens: I think it’s basically b/c he’s been old for his level so often

3:27	GSon: Defense in High School = Hands of Stone

3:27	Ben Clemens: Oh yes, hands of stone for sure

3:27	45 blows billygoats: As a manager, if you had to get rid of one, would you eliminate the bunt or the SB from your teams’ strategy?

3:27	Ben Clemens: Bunt

3:27	Jimmy: Do you think Tatis deserved the cover of Mlb the show?

3:27	Ben Clemens: Yeah, he’s so fun

3:27

Matt (Oceanside): One more Padres/Dodgers questions regarding their rotations. After LA signed Bauer, most analysts shifted their power balance back to the Dodgers rotation being better. Obviously this is due to the projections of the top 3 of each group, but I am curious to hear your thoughts on how you view Urias/May/Gonsolin vs Gore/Morejon/Weathers long-term. Definitely the former is off to a better start, but after scouting reports detailing inconsistency with Gore at the alt site, does the Padres group still play better long term in your opinion?

3:28	Ben Clemens: I thikn I’d rather have Gore than any player in the Dodgers trio, but I like each Dodger more than either Morejon or Weathers

3:29	Ben Clemens: So on average, I’ll say the Dodgers trio, but Gore is more likely to become an ace

3:29	brad penny for your thoughts: have you ever had nightmares about being trapped in a giant, silver super bowl?

3:29	Ben Clemens: not before now!

3:29	Ben Clemens: you and the weeknd are upping my maze-related anxiety of late

3:30	Ed: Regarding Acuna and 30/50 – I know he’s young and Uber talented, but, is it just me, or does anyone else think he looks like he’s filled out beyond the point of 50 bags at this point?

3:30	Ben Clemens: Eh, I think if he had a prepetual green light that wouldn’t be an issue, but I don’t think he will for long

3:30	Ben Clemens: 50 steals is just a lot

3:31	Ben Clemens: Teams don’t generally let their stars steal that much

3:31	GSon: Ben Clemens: “..If I wasn’t watching and writing about baseball, I’d be ___________________” (fill in the blank)..please..

3:32	Ben Clemens: Hm, very likely doing some kind of analytical work

3:32	Ben Clemens: I used to work at a bank (and later a hedge fund), but I left that before getting this job

3:32	Ben Clemens: So, probably not doing that

3:32	Ben Clemens: this was just a fortuitous coincidence

3:32	5 Run Homer: Acuna just doesn’t register as fast anymore because of the Manny dreads

3:32	Ben Clemens: Yeah I can see that. Slow-looking hairstyle

3:32	Mtc: Why are jays fans (and a lot of fans) so gung ho on Taijuan Walker? His peripherals aren’t all that good and there seem to be more exciting arms on the market (Paxton)

3:32	Ben Clemens: I totally agree!

3:32	Ben Clemens: I don’t get it

3:33	Dave: Would you rather have Schwarber or Joc?

3:33	Ben Clemens: Joc

3:33	Ben Clemens: not close for me honestly

3:33	Ben Clemens: for one year, close

3:33	Ben Clemens: But, I just think there’s a bigger range of outcomes where you’re happy with Joc long-term

3:33	Sirras: What team is the most fun for you to watch?

3:33	Ben Clemens: For me it’s the Cardinals, but I’m totally biased

3:34	Ben Clemens: I think probably the Jays or Padres if I were totally neutral

3:34	Ben Clemens: Or the Mets, just for the broadcast

3:34	Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, I’m going to head out of here. Didn’t have time to talk food or games too much today, just too much baseball!

3:34	Ben Clemens: Have a good week everyone

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG