Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/13/23
2:00 |
: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I’m slightly fried from my recent travels, so I’m not gonna go particularly long today, but let’s talk about some baseball
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2:00 |
: It’s been a few years so let’s ask this again: Who will have the better career, Acuña, Soto, Tatis, or Vlad Jr.?
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2:01 |
: I’m on Soto by a good deal out of that quartet
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2:02 |
: No knock on the other guys, but he’s done it more consistently and in a way that I think bodes better for his future performance
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2:03 |
: The Angels aren’t even my favorite team but I want this season to have a Trout/Ohtani MVP debate and for the answer not to be obvious.
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2:04 |
: That sounds delightful
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2:04 |
: I will say that from my two-game sample of watching Trout in the WBC, he’s washed
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2:05 |
: That said…. c’mon, he’s probably great still
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2:07 |
: What’s your take on how the Cardinals will manage Jordan Walker this year? That dude is *electric*
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2:07 |
: I think he’s gonna force his way into the lineup at some point if he keeps hitting like he is so far in spring trianing
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2:08 |
: but in keeping with my general view of spring, I’m focusing on what my view was in January, which is that I wouldn’t be heartbroken if he started in Triple-A
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2:08 |
: it’s not like there’s no one good in front of him
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2:08 |
: Really enjoyed the Corbin Carroll article. Was wondering what is the balance between the amount of money and the risk? (I guess from the team’s perspective) I mean that is a lot of money to Carroll and deals like Kingery and Evan White looked good at the time but clearly haven’t worked out to this point.
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2:09 |
: Doesn’t really seem too meaningful to me, in the context of what you’d expect to pay Carroll. It’s a portfolio deal, like I said. If you were only allowed to give out one contract extension ever, maybe that would matter more?
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2:09 |
: But you can sign a ton!~
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2:09 |
: And if even 70% of them save you money, you’ll probably come way out ahead in the long run while giving players earning certainty
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2:10 |
: Going into spring training, I thought the pitch clock would help batters a tiny bit. But now that I’m a pitch clock expert after watching a few games on TV, I think maybe I was wrong? Maybe the clock actually helps pitchers?
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2:10 |
: I think it might help pitchers, but I think more likely it doesn’t help either side particularly much and batters are just not doing a good job adjusting yet
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2:10 |
: Out of curiosity, how would you define a knuckleball? Seems like a random question, I know, but noticed something unusual with a random minors pitcher, and wanted to get your definition without accidentally spoiling who it is.
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2:10 |
: I think it’s grip-based
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2:10 |
: ZiPS projects Dalton Varsho to breakout offensively big time but struggle defensively. Could you break this down?
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2:11 |
: I cannot
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2:12 |
: Like, ZiPS is a black box on purpose
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2:12 |
: The Mets are shutting down Quintana for 3 months. Do you think they stick with internal options (Peterson, Megill)?
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2:12 |
: I do
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2:12 |
: I think that’s a beneift of signing a ton of guys like Quintana while having those internal options…. you can fall back on the internal choices if your mid-tier signings get hurt or don’t pan out
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2:13 |
: I understand that you are not supposed to believe in anything you see in spring training, but what if I really really want to?
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2:13 |
: Oh, then you totally should
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2:13 |
: Looking at statcast: Trout rates very poorly in jump but still very highly in OAA. Is he getting by on his speed? Route efficiency?
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2:14 |
: Yeah. A lot of fast-jump guys have worse route efficiency
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2:15 |
: Davy Andrews wrote about this
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2:15 |
: Who would you take on your team in a utility role right now: Cavan Biggio, or Addison Barger?
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2:15 |
: Cavan, I’m still in
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2:16 |
: Is contact rate sticky in 25 PA? I ask because Cristian Pache has yet to strikeout in spring in that sample size.
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2:16 |
: Honestly, I don’t remember, but again: spring training stats, don’t read too much into them. Even if they’re reliable, they’re certainly not stsable
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2:16 |
: I think I have seen this movie before: Rangers CF of future who has like 40 at bats in AA, Evan Carter is being projected to replace the Ranger CF of the future who still has not arrived in the present ie. Willy Taveras. Why do clubs encourage such projection nonsense this far out? And… at 24 is Taveras still as highly rated as was his projection at age 20?
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2:17 |
: No clue. But let me say this: I’m a big Evan Carter fan
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2:17 |
: I don’t know if he’s going to be great
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2:19 |
: but he’s hitting a ton right now and in a way that historically means his chances of success are high
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2:19 |
: But yeah, prospects are never sure things
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2:19 |
: Remember how hot Victor Robles was at one point?
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2:20 |
: Probability is just tough to wrap your head around, and I think that leads to overly-confident ‘oh this guy is the future’ things from some time
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2:20 |
: people like to dream, I guess I’d say
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2:20 |
: Will we see an MLB game with the atmosphere of the VZ/DR game until October?
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2:20 |
: No
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2:20 |
: Has Ronny Mauricio’s spring training performance caused you to rethink anything about his profile? Power aside, his swing decisions haven’t seemed terrible
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2:20 |
: Nope!
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2:20 |
: The concern about Soto is that he was 267/268 in outs above average as a 23 year old. It’s tough to be great as a DH.
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2:21 |
: Eh…. I’m just not that worried, tbh
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2:21 |
: like…. I don’t think he’s that bad of a defender on a go-forward basis
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2:21 |
: he’s not deathly slow, he doesn’t take bad routes
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2:21 |
: I think he’ll be just fine
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2:21 |
: Ben, how do I keep the existential dread at bay?
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2:22 |
: I like to run and play games
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2:22 |
: As a fellow Cardinal fan, I say if Flaherty pitches like a #1 they have a good chance to win the pennant. If he pitches like a #2 they have a good chance to get past the first round of the playoffs, and if he pitches like the last 3 seasons or gets injured again, then they have to get at least a #2 type starting pitcher if they expect to do better in the playoffs than the last few seasons. Is that pretty accurate?
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2:22 |
: Seems mostly right
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2:22 |
: They are light on impact pitching, it’d be great if Flaherty can alleviate that problem
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2:24 |
: What I think we should do to grow the game of baseball in the United States is to put the United States against Mexico at 10:00 on a Sunday night. Any concerns there?
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2:25 |
: I don’t really know what the alternative was, but I’m generally down on the way MLB has marketed this
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2:25 |
: I have a lot of sports-following friends, even one who loves Joey Meneses
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2:25 |
: and they’re not really following the wbc because they don’t know how to
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2:25 |
: That’s a failing of the MLB PR arm, imo
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2:26 |
: Outside of injury or something like losing 5 mph on your fastball, is any bad ST performance by an established player concerning to you?
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2:26 |
: Not really, no
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2:28 |
: In regards to mlb handing out extensions to so many emerging players… when do the mlb guys “ hold out” like NFL’s to demand a rewrite if they are “ Stars”? I mean, thecNFL model has shown the player in great years holds the cards. In bad years of performance, the player still holds the cards. Car crash coming….
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2:28 |
: Don’t think it’s gonna happen thanks to the nature of guaranteed contracts
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2:29 |
: Ronny Mauricio was the Mets big prospect a few years ago, but his shine faded as other prospects passed him. But Lordy, he has hit some Big HRs this spring. Is he a better bet than Baty?
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2:29 |
: I prefer Baty, probably not a hot take
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2:29 |
: Did the long contracts of this year push back the average age of retirement or are playing going to retire/be at the same age they would have in an alternate universe were nobody got more than 5 year contracts?
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2:29 |
: my guess: it won’t meaningfully change retirement age
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2:30 |
: I read that statcast article on outfield jump and it broke my mind
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2:30 |
: That’s what Davy strives for
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2:31 |
: oh, and to finish my thought from above: maybe a few guys will hang around longers
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2:31 |
: longer*
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2:31 |
: but there are not THAT many players affected
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2:31 |
: As it turns out exempting the 16th largest bank in the US from Basel III was a catastrophically poor idea. I’m shocked, shocked, well…not that shocked
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2:31 |
: Look, I’m not pro bank run
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2:32 |
: But if you have to have one, this one delights me for the sheer ‘but how could this happen, I know the CEO’ whining of people in the bay
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2:33 |
: ZiPS seems to feel ok about Vaughn Grissom, but he sure seems to be another in this line of good but not heralded prospects with ATL to move quickly and perform. Do you view him as a first-division contributor at SS?
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2:33 |
: First division, probably not
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2:33 |
: surely it’s in his range of outcomes, but above median outcome imo
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2:33 |
: Does David Villar stick at 3B for the Giants?
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2:34 |
: I’m gonna say yes, at least he gets a long run to prove it one way or another, b/c I don’t see what else is happening
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2:34 |
: for the Giants, that is
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2:34 |
: I saw the USA coach complaining (ish) about pitch limits for his team last night. How much (or how well) are MLB teams monitoring their players in the WBC?
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2:34 |
: Complaining ish is being kind
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2:34 |
: They’re monitoring for sure, but this was a solvable problem
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2:35 |
: DeRosa isn’t really a manager, he’s a talking head on tv who plyaed on team usa before and so is running it back
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2:35 |
: I think that shortcoming is showing a little
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2:35 |
: oh, and also, these fairly solid mlb pitchers jsut got shelled, which would make anyone look bad
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2:35 |
: not a huge fan of the whining, though!
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2:35 |
: How will AI change the game in the next 10-20 years? I know “I don’t know” is the best answer, but what would you think?
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2:36 |
: My real answer is I don’t know, but in service of speculating, I’ll say: understanding of pitcher/batter confrontations and optimal pitch sequencing/how to counteract it will grow by a lot
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2:36 |
: What is the probability Volpe is on the Opening Day roster? What is the probability he’s on the MLB roster by May 1?
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2:36 |
: I think that if he’s good enough to start he’ll be on the opening day roster
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2:37 |
: there are tenuous rewards to keeping someone down given the ROY full year of service bonus, and the Yankees probably want every win they can get
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2:37 |
: Thoughts on the Keibert Ruiz extension?
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2:37 |
: We are writing about it
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2:37 |
: But I like it for the Nats on general principle
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2:38 |
: they have money, so locking up some reasonable contributor types to provide some foundation for whichever stars break out is a good way to go
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2:38 |
: José Berríos got roasted in the WBC yesterday. How worried should Jays fans be about him?
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2:38 |
: I’d say about as worried as they were at the end of last year
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2:38 |
: Quite worried!
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2:40 |
: Sorry everyone, had an internet hiccup there
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2:41 |
: Pfaadt or Megill for greater 2023 value?
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2:41 |
: Pfaadt I think, for availability reasons
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2:41 |
: Do you think teams’ analytics departments have the same attitude regarding players’ spring performance as the public-facing commentators do? Or are they able to glean actionable information from whatever statcast/analytical tools they have at their disposal?
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2:41 |
: I think they do a lot better on looking at biomechanical things
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2:41 |
: Maybe we’ll be able to do that
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2:41 |
: When statcast gets better and stuff
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2:41 |
: But eh, I don’t really need public analysis to be that good, if I’m being honest with you
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2:42 |
: I’m happy just watching spring games to get my baseball fix and leaving it at that
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2:42 |
: last keeper. Helsley $10, Devin Williams $14, Whitlock $9 5×5 with savlds instead of saves. Worried about Helsley’s health/velocity/slump potential.
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2:42 |
: I think I’d take Williams
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2:42 |
: I could see AI potentially having an impact in the injury risk domain. Teams are probably collecting more biometric and kinesthetic data than they can actually manage.
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2:42 |
: This is a good one
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2:43 |
: AI signal processing is a good call
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2:43 |
: Last finance one
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2:43 |
: Yeah, I’ve been giggling a bit over the weekend feels some what cathartic in a way. I was shocked that regulators moved to take over the bank during business hours. To me that says they we concerned SVB wouldn’t survive to the end of the day. Ultimately I think guaranteeing all deposits is probably the right move to prevent bigger issues but now the executives need to face some real personal consequences to prevent serious moral hazard issues.
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2:43 |
: I think that it’d be reasonable to wonder about VC/startup coordination, and whether their extreme interconnectivity is legal
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2:43 |
: It’s a bit absurd that there are group chats of hundreds of founders/vc’s talking about whether they should take their money out of a bank
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2:44 |
: I take no stance on what should be done, and I’m not saying it’s 100% necessary, but uh: that seems very close to collusion to my non-legal mind
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2:44 |
: Fair enough. But there is a pretty sizable contingent of people that are interested in whether spring performance is meaningful, and I would hazard that the contingent includes a lot of people who use this site and, in particular, Rotographs.
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2:44 |
: Surely
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2:45 |
: And if they clamor for it long enough, maybe they’ll be able to get some public side analysts doing that stuff
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2:45 |
: I’ll say that quite frankly, there’d need to be more money in public-side baseball analysis to get people to start gleaning the same insights as teams
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2:45 |
: As much as I like fangraphs and high quality analysis I remember my youth fondly when the unknowns meant the error bars on predictions where wide enough that it felt like every team had a shot at the playoffs even though they didn’t.
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2:45 |
: I both agree and disagree with you
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2:46 |
: I think that the magic of baseball is in the uncertainty, and I think the world would be better off if error bars were a little wider in general
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2:46 |
: Scale of 1-10, how much do you care about the WBC? Have you gotten more or less interested over time?
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2:46 |
: I’m like an 8
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2:47 |
: It remains maddening to me how hard it is to watch
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2:47 |
: I’m super enfranchised
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2:47 |
: I’m a baseball writer who pays for all kinds of online tv nonsense
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2:47 |
: how do I watch it? see if I can search through layers of youtube tv nonsense to try to find a live broadcast
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2:48 |
: I know this is extremely premature but odds Jordan Walker has one MVP caliber season in his career over or under 10%
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2:48 |
: Under by a hair, sadly
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2:48 |
: How about if Ronny Mauricio produces like this the first month of the season? How do we get you on board the Ronny train!
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2:48 |
: Is he worth a yo for fantasy? I’m sure
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2:48 |
: But I dunno, I find that being slow to believe changes works out better for me
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2:49 |
: I read them and write them, so uh, never say I’m not a hypocrite
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2:49 |
: but I need more than numbers to change default assumptions, which I find to be a good mindset to have from an avoiding bad conclusions standpoint
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2:49 |
ridiculous if Nellie Cruz has one more good 30 HR+ year in him. Are you buying the “I just needed left eye surgery” excuse or is this more likely age catching up to him? What’s your Cruz prediction? Thanks
: The Friars will be |
2:49 |
: I think it’s age 🙁
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2:50 |
: I hope I’m wrong, love Cruz
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2:50 |
: Was looking at Randy Johnson’s page. Do you find it weird that nobody is talking about all the guys of that era who had random carreer peaks in their late-30s while steroids were running rampant?
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2:50 |
: We’ve just all agreed not to talk about it, haha
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2:50 |
: but yeah, it’s weird!
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2:50 |
: Harrison Bader is going to mix six weeks with an oblique injury and I am sad.
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2:50 |
: Totally agreed
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2:50 |
: The guy gets hurt a lot, sadly
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2:50 |
: Re: Juan Soto, have you ever seen a player that defensive metrics oscillate on to such a degree each year? His OAA percentile is a roller coaster what would kill riders from the g-force, and the defense value on fangraphs isn’t that much difference on a rate basis
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2:51 |
: Our defensive value uses OAA plus arm runs, so it’s gonna be verrrry similar
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2:51 |
: and yeah, to me that says ‘hey defensive metrics are weird and take a while to stabilize and maybe let’s not be as rock-solid certain of their contributions to value’
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2:51 |
: Wow, Nicaragua running into an out on the basepaths down 6-1 in the 8th is nooooot good
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2:52 |
: Juan Soto with the OF assist, speaking of!
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2:52 |
: a laser
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2:52 |
: Is Roman Laureano still an A come July?
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2:52 |
: Nah
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2:52 |
: does James outman start in cf for Dodgers?
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2:52 |
: hot wbc take: Trayce Thompson is now Mike Trout
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2:53 |
: freaky friday style
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2:53 |
: I was at the SABR analytics conference this weekend and saw the presentation on expanded bat speed tracking
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2:53 |
: Trayce is top 10 in mlb in swing speed, wth
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2:54 |
: Soto is having quite the WBC
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2:54 |
: Why would we talk about the systemic and wide use of steroids when we can, instead, pillory a few individuals we didn’t like anyways and pat ourselves on the back?
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2:54 |
: Exactly
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2:55 |
: Not a baseball question, but wondering if you have an opinion on the Bears draft pick trade. Certainly seems like a great deal for the Bears, IF you are convinced Fields is the answer. I’m not so sure….
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2:55 |
: I’d do it if I were the Bears
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2:55 |
: lot of picks and players
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2:55 |
: I’m not really an NFL expert though
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2:56 |
: but my Panthers fan friend (Eric) hated it and my Bears fan friends loved it
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2:56 |
: Is Trayce like actually good now? Obviously last year he ran a .374 babip which is … unlikely to continue. But is he a viable major leaguer now?
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2:56 |
: I think it depends on what ‘actually good’ means
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2:57 |
: I thikn he’s a viable league average type hitter with power/K stylings
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2:57 |
: tracks with his delightfully high swing speed, for example
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2:57 |
: That offense and acceptable outfield defense will play
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2:57 |
: Not all star level play, but play
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2:58 |
: Do you think a time comes soon when Albies & Acuma realize how badly they were taken advantage of by the Braves? (Reminds me somewhat of music industry contracts from the 80’s.) If so, could that lead to internal problems within the team — especially as there are now teammates actually getting paid.
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2:58 |
: Albies more so than Acuna imo
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2:58 |
: but yeah, I’m sure there is already friction between him and the front office
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2:58 |
: I think that’s fair, too
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2:58 |
: The Royals tore up Salvy’s deal and gave him more money
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2:58 |
: I kinda doubt the Braves would do that, but there’s precedent
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2:59 |
: Alright, I’m gonna keep chatting until the end of the 9th in the wbc game and then call it a day
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2:59 |
: Are the Cubs gonna roll with Adrian Sampson because it’s the easiest decision to make or go with Wesneski or Assad, the bolder options?
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3:00 |
: I’d be interested in trying Assad as a multi-inning reliever
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3:00 |
: did you see him last night???
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3:00 |
: He looked electric
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3:00 |
: I think it won’t matter who they start wtih, though. They’re all gonna get chances
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3:00 |
: It’s not even just that the WBC is hard to watch – it’s hard to even to access the box scores! On the MLB app it has to open a separate browser, and you can’t just get scores directly through google. This is something insanely easy to fix that makes me less interested in the series.
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3:00 |
: 100% concur
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3:00 |
: Like, make this easy
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3:00 |
: We want to have pageantry and meaningful baseball in March
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3:00 |
: The players clearly want to as well
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3:01 |
: Rate the likelyhood of each option. Jurickson Profar becomes a) a Ranger (30th LF depth chart), b) a Brave (29th), c) a Mariner (24th), d) a White Sock (29th in RF), e) a free agent for a maddeningly long time, f) other team/Japan/etc.
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3:01 |
: Ooh, good question
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3:02 |
: Let’s go: A, E, B, D, F, C
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3:02 |
: …a second pickoff attempt is made. Next pitch the runner on 1st takes off for 2B too soon and the pitcher throws to second, which is now the third pickoff attempt. Batter is caught in a rundown and makes it back to first safely. Does he get awarded 2B anyway?
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3:02 |
: Yep
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3:02 |
: if you step off three times and don’t get an out, it’s a balk
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3:03 |
: One thing I’m not sure about: what if you step off and the runner successfully steals second anyway
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3:03 |
: I assume they wouldn’t also be awarded third but I hvaen’ seen it happen
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3:03 |
: As an angry Yankee fan who’s upset that a bunch of his new toys are broken already, is it fair to be critical of the front office for the constant deluge of injuries, or is it ‘just baseball’?
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3:03 |
: Just baseball, for me
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3:03 |
: Maybe you can question their pre-acquisition screening, I thought Montas was hurt when they traded for him
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3:04 |
: But pitchers getting hurt, what can you say
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3:04 |
: Re: the knuckleball question, the pitch in question that was being looked at (and why I asked) was Yacksel Rios’ splitter, particularly since his spin rates on the pitch are hilariously low. Of course splitters are naturally low-spin to begin with, but he kills it to such a degree that the only pitches with even lower average spin rates have been knuckleballs, and even R.A. Dickey and Steven Wright’s knucklers had higher average spin rates on Statcast. (Might be a fun article topic if you’re interested.)
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3:04 |
: Whether it’s a knuckler or not, that’s very cool
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3:04 |
: Yeah, spin rates on knuckleballs don’t strike me as reliable
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3:04 |
: The way the technology works, I don’t think it’s supposed to measure knuckleballs?
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3:05 |
: But pitches that act like knuckleballs are fun, and there should be more of them imo
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3:05 |
: Lots of extensions, but none for the Cubs. Not now. Not with the old core. Do they, umm, know about extensions?
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3:05 |
: Hey, that’s David Bote slander
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3:06 |
: I think that the Cubs should offer more extensions than they do. I assume what’s happening is that they’re just lowballing everyone too much and thus not getting anything done
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3:06 |
: But I don’t have any confirmation of that, just a guess
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3:07 |
: I am a mets fan, and is it completely out of line to think they are just as likely to miss the playoffs as they are to win the division? Lots of volatility and injury risk in the rotation, the bullpen outside of Diaz is meh and the bats showed last year that they couldn’t rely on lucky contact forever – they have no protection for Alonso still. I know what they did last year, but having been a Mets fan for 40 years, I also know what usually happens. They have only made the playoffs in back to back seasons twice before
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3:07 |
: The bats… made a lot of good contact and scored a lot of runs, and probably will again this year
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3:07 |
: I think that’s a pretty harsh take on the offense
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3:07 |
: I agree the pitching is risky from an injury standpoint, but htye got some depth. I think that they are far more likely than not to make the playoffs
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3:08 |
: The offense scored the sixth-most runs in baseball in an extreme pitcher’s park
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3:08 |
: I dunno what more you want
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3:08 |
: and what of Ben Joyce? impact reliever this year for angels?
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3:08 |
: Yeah, maybe I’m just getting tricked by the pitching ninja highlights but he looks legit to me
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3:09 |
: and the team fit doesn’t hurt
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3:11 |
: how was your vacation ben
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3:11 |
: It was excellent
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3:11 |
: The skiing in Europe was not great, but the vibes were a home run
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3:11 |
: HIghly recommend Zermatt for your ski vibe needs
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3:12 |
: You can watch me for free, legally, on foxsports dot com, even if you don’t have a TV provider! The preview period is one hour long and you can do as many of them as you want if each one is done in a new incognito window
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3:12 |
: Ah, sure, the easiest technological fix in the world
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3:12 |
: Like, look, I have been able to watch the games I’ve wanted to
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3:13 |
: but the fact that it’s all these dumb workarounds and hacks is embarrassing imo
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3:14 |
: Which stadiums are you planning on seeing games at this season?
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3:14 |
: Wrigley, Miller, Oracle, Coliseum, Nats Park (maybe), and I dunno whatever else comes pu
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3:15 |
: thanks for QT’ing the thread of that founder earlier; threw up in my mouth a little at the ‘played with my kids, the rest is an externality’ mark zuckerberg cosplay part lol
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3:16 |
: Lol good description
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3:16 |
: How would you handle the Mets 3B situation? Turn the keys over to Baty to start the year, platoon him with Escobar (who has better splits from the right side anyway), or keep him warm in the minors for a little bit longer?
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3:16 |
: I think I’d platoon him with Escobar with Escobar also serving as a backup 2b and backup outfielder via moving McNeil to the outfield as appropriate
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3:16 |
: excellent flexibility
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3:17 |
: Verlander, deGrom, Scherzer just off the top of my head have also all had seasons ranging from “great” to “best of their careers” in their 30s… might just be a pitching thing, not necessarily a steroid thing!
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3:17 |
: That is a very good point as well
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3:17 |
: Pitchers seem more capable of popping off in their late 30’s than hitters
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3:17 |
: Am I crazy to think that the Jared Kellenic doubting is way too premature? The guy is super young and only like a year from being a guy with a high end hit tool
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3:17 |
: YOu’re not
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3:18 |
: The hype was too hype-y, the doom is too doom-y
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3:18 |
: that said, he has looked BAD, he needs to change something
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3:18 |
: DR wins, DR wins
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3:18 |
: catch you people later
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3:18 |
: have a great week
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
Yeah, there’s not enough blather about the NFL in America, so let’s take football questions on a Fangraphs chat. Great idea.
The super popular topics of chili, board games manufactured in Germany, and soup/sandwich/pie (date/marry/kill) have already diluted the obscure arcana of rooting for $100-million jocks with bats. I don’t see how fielding a question or two about jocks in pads is really going to harsh the vibe….
Dude, it’s early March. There’s nothing to talk about except spring training injuries – this might be the least interesting period in the entire baseball year (if not for the WBC).