Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/27/26

2:00
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

2:01
Ben Clemens: I’m working on a pretty fun (to me) article about the changing shape of the strike zone in 2026, gonna be out tomorrow. So if you have any ABS/zone questions, they’ve been on my mind. and aside from that, there’s a lot of fun stuff going on right now, let’s do it

2:01
Oaktown Blues: Carlos Cortes is 4th in baseball in wRC+ and 3rd in xwOBA (min. 60 PA). The peripherals are unimpeachable: 6% K rate on an 87.5% contact rate, 52.6% HH rate, 15.8% barrel rate. The only red flag (and it’s a very big one) is that he’s never done anything like this before. Are you buying in, and to what extent?

2:01
AMX: Carlos Cortes can really hit. Change my mind!

2:02
Ben Clemens: article about him coming out tomorrow!

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2:02
Ben Clemens: I haven’t looked too much yet, to be honest. My prior is that he’s never done anything like this before, and I want to see more

2:02
Look At This Sotograph: Are K rate, whiff rate, and barrel rate the only stats that are sticky enough about which to be making judgments about hitters this early in the season?

2:02
Ben Clemens: I like looking at plate discipline metrics too, and bat speed/hard-hit stuff is good

2:03
Ben Clemens: but yeah, realllllllly hard to learn a ton until we get more data

2:03
Ty: As a Braves fan, it seems a number of somewhat well-regarded prospects have turned into excellent big leaguers despite getting only modest prospect traction (Michael Harris, Drake Baldwin, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, William Contreras, etc). Meanwhile the system has been ranked on the low end for the past 5-6 years while churning out fantastic results. I know fangraphs will revisit previous top 100 prospect lists years later to see how the projections and opinions fared. Has there ever been a re-ranking of team farm systems years later to see how the evaluations fared at the time?

2:03
Ben Clemens: probably a question for Eric or Brendan, but Eric does a ‘how’s my driving’ of prospects, like you said, and I assume that’s about the extent of it. Revisiting the rankings of 100 guys? hard. revisiting the rankings of 40*30-ish guys? exhausting

2:03
Tacoby Bellsbury: Is Rafael Devers broken for good? Minus-0.7 WAR so far despite a BABIP over .300, and apparently getting eaten alive by fastballs.

2:04
Ben Clemens: wonderful question. I have no clue. I honestly haven’t done a ton of digging into the Giants this year becuase I always assume I’ll go to enough games to get curious and dive in, and I haven’t gotten to that poitn yet

2:04
Ben Clemens: I will tell you that I went to last Thursday’s Giants/Dodgers game and Devers looked BAD

2:04
O: With Devers’ tough start, how soon can the Red Sox claim victory on getting off of his contract?

2:04
Ben Clemens: buddy they claimed it the instant they completed the trade

2:04
Alex Cora’s Burner: Who’s next?

2:04
bosoxforlife: Where do you come down on the cause of the Red Sox obvious clashes between the front office and the on field manager and coaches?

2:04
Look At This Sotograph: Firing the manager several coaches in April makes the front office look pretty weak IMO.

2:05
Ben Clemens: etc, etc, lots of questions about this

2:05
Ben Clemens: I mean…. it doesn’t look great! I know that Breslow’s tenure has been filled with clashes between front office and coaching staff in various ways, from the scout-firing saga last year to just lots of the stuff that’s come out in reporting in recent weeks, and heck, last year too

2:06
Ben Clemens: I don’t have a strong opinion on whether it made sense to fire Cora. I don’t know how I could from so far outside the situation. But I am definitely sure that the way they did it was not good

2:06
Ben Clemens: the whole ‘the owner sits silently in the back of a meeting with players, does not speak, and does not take questions’ thing just couldn’t have come off well, I don’t know why they thought otherwise

2:07
Ben Clemens: so like I said, I’m not really sure whether the decision made sense on the merits, and I doubt I’ll ever feel strongly either way on that. It’s too hard to know

2:07
Ben Clemens: But I am very sure that the way it was handled is creating distraction for little gain

2:07
Ben Clemens: I think that a lot of the Breslow era has been events like these, honestly. Good analytical decision? Perhaps, and I’m willing to give him leeway there, he’s a smart dude

2:07
Ben Clemens: good decision when it comes to baseball? a lot less clear, because human beings play baseball;

2:08
Kwanbelievable: Please tell me that Austin Hedges has unlocked something at age 33 and will continue hitting .273 for the rest of the year. We’re almost out of April, small sample sizes no longer apply, right?

2:08
Ben Clemens: yes. let’s jsut say yes

2:08
Opifijikl: The Red Sox Did It All This Winter | FanGraphs Baseball This article gave me so much hope as a Red Sox fan (for the second year in a row, Fangraphs :/ ) I hate “gotcha’s” and I still agree with your article so this isn’t meant as that, but I’m curious if you have any further thoughts or ideas.

2:08
Ben Clemens: haha, I still think I’m right! I liked their offseason decision making given where they came into the year

2:08
Ben Clemens: and I think I highlighted that they still didn’t do a good job filling their infield, despite doing some infield-filling

2:09
Ben Clemens: but yeah, like I said

2:09
Ben Clemens: I don’t really have a strong negative opinion of Breslow’s baseball decision making. I don’t think I have much opinion either way, really. But I take issue with the personnel management

2:09
Ben Clemens: and given that any dummy with an Anthropic account can do analytics now, you better get the people skills right!

2:09
bosoxforlife: In this season turned upside down which is more surprising to you, the awful play of the Mets, Phillies, Red Sox and Blue Jays or the fact that all five teams in the NL Central are above .500?

2:09
Ben Clemens: NL Central teams

2:10
Ben Clemens: like, sure, teams can be awful. and you didn’t even include the Giants in there, who are 30th in hitter WAR

2:10
Ben Clemens: but teams are bad all the time, and I know that it’s hard to predict which ones will be bad. this division playing this well? shocking

2:10
Arathorn: Any chance to get defense included into the game simulator?

2:10
Ben Clemens: oooooh, that’s gonna be a tough one. We’ve talked about it a little, but we’d need to do some “interesting” recalculating of the way we calculate defense

2:10
Ben Clemens: we’re not actually putting a ball in play and letting defenders act on it, you kno? we just say ‘single’

2:11
Ben Clemens: so you could do some approximating of how many singles a +5 CF turns into outs, etc., but we haven’t worked out a framework yet

2:11
Ben Clemens: more likely earlier inclusions: base/out-state-specific changes, times through order changes

2:11
OW: Would you rather be Breslow or Stearns right now?

2:12
Ben Clemens: Stearns, but I dunno, I don’t feel super strong about that or anything

2:12
NYYEnjoyer: Since 2008, teams that fire their manager midseason are, on average, .407 before the firing and .474 after. There are obviously a ton of confounding factors, but that’s a huge difference. Do you think there’s anything there or just noise?

2:12
Ben Clemens: sounds like the kind of thing where if there werne’t a positive effect, I’d be floored. to get your manager fired in season you generally have to be underperforming your true talent

2:12
SPArn: New entries to the “aesthetically pleasing” club, on my end: the Tyler O’Neill flip throw, the Peyton Tolle K strut, a Chandler Simpson no throw steal, the Belly bomb, a double digit pitch at bat that ends in either a swinging K or a double off the wall/home run. What about you?

2:13
Ben Clemens: ooh, I have a weird one for you. Luis Arraez making weird little half-speed flips at strange angles on plays where he’s moving to his left

2:13
Ben Clemens: and this one is surely overplayed, but it’s on my mind b/c I just saw him in person, Ohtani apologizing to the dugout after a foul ball

2:13
HappyFunBall: As of today the Washington Nationals pitching staff has earned a collective -1.4 WAR. The lowest season total for an entire staff since the Expos relocated to Washington was … the 2022 Nats with a 0.0.

This is a two part question:
1) Will the 2026 Nats pitching staff finish with negative WAR, and
2) Will any individual member of the 2026 Nats pitching staff finish with a higher war than Joey Weimer?

2:13
Ben Clemens: oh man I giggled a little, so I definitely have to answer this one

2:14
Ben Clemens: the whole staff? the smart bet is definitely no, but I think the answer is yes

2:15
Ben Clemens: like they’re SO bad, jeez

2:15
Ben Clemens: that generally means bringing up new people

2:15
Ben Clemens: but I don’t think the Nats really have a lot of options tehre juuuuust yet. We’ll see, and I don’t feel strongly about this prediction

2:15
Ben Clemens: 2)so Wiemer has 0.0 pitching WAR and 0.9 hitting WAR. We project him to be replacement level ish the rest of the way

2:17
Ben Clemens: given that Cade Cavalli is more than halfway there already, I’m gonna say no

2:18
Ben Clemens: bummer, haha

2:18
Haram: Will Jose Caballero be able to hold on to the starting job? His bat has been really good lately and already leading the AL in stolen bases with 11.

2:18
Ben Clemens: I kind of think he will

2:18
Ben Clemens: But, maybe it’ll be the third base job?

2:18
Ben Clemens: like, bench Caballero, a good-hitting good-fielding infielder? don’t love it

2:19
Ben Clemens: Bench Ryan McMahon, who has a 66 wRC+ this year, was at 84 last year, and bats ninth?

2:19
Ben Clemens: seems a little easier of a sell

2:19
SPArn: That sound you overhear off in the distance is Foster Griffin munching on some innings. He will eclipse Wiemer on volume alone. Also – have a hunch he’s a guy you would, or do, like. 8 pitch mix!

2:19
Wooly Mammoth: Victor Scott couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. Should Church be given the run way as the CF to see if he can be an average full time regular for the Cards and build his skills for the next few years?

2:20
Ben Clemens: so, take this with a grain of salt, because I’m a Church believer, if I were doing ‘less-heralded prospects’ or whatever we used to call that series, I’d have had him at the top of the list this year

2:21
Ben Clemens: but yes! Scott was an interesting and worthy experiment, but he cannot hit at an acceptable major league level. I don’t think that’s in much doubt.

2:21
Ben Clemens: I don’t think Church will stick as an average regular. But I am a lot less certain of that fact

2:23
Ben Clemens: Basically there’s a lot of stuff I’m willing to believe in with Church. Good bat control. Swings at a reasonable rate. I’m definitely worried about his swing-at-everything approach this year, and I kind of expect things to fall apart. But it’s really out of character, he was much better both last year and in the minors,and he’s succeeding despite it. so that buys him more runway to figure it out

2:23
Ben Clemens: I’d prefer to bet on a ‘maybe even though I’m doubtful’ than a ‘nahhhhh’, basically

2:23
Derek: Did Casey Schmitt Monstars Devers?

2:23
DJ Tofu: What are the stats lines you would predict for Casey Schmitt and Jung Hoo Lee at the end of the year?

2:23
Ben Clemens: i looked up JHL’s batting line last night and was very surprised

2:25
Ben Clemens: I’m not buying either of these improvements, really, but I do think that Schmitt is probably a decent enough hitter (like, 109 wRC+ from 2024-present) and Lee is an above average bat

2:25
Fried Schlittler Cole Rodon Warren: Seems pretty good.

2:25
Ben Clemens: spectacular rotation, yeah

2:25
jupiterbrando: Rate this idea: Kodai Senga, Closer

2:25
Ben Clemens: oh I’m surprisingly into it

2:26
Ben Clemens: he has closer vibes anyway. the wildness, the one nasty signature out pitch

2:26
Ben Clemens: I think he’d benefit from a harder fastball, too

2:26
J: Biggest pleasant surprise of the season now that we’re a month in?

2:26
Ben Clemens: I think I’ll say eitehr Yordan Alvarez being healthy or Nolan McLean being the real deal

2:27
Ben Clemens: lot of other good results, of course, but those two in particular are players I like watching, and there was some question (injury, sample size) of how good they’d be this year

2:27
War2D2: “There’s a lot of stuff I’m willing to believe in with Church. Good bat control.” Ben Clemens, 2026; Parisian peasant, 1847

2:27
Dale: Did the Brewers fleece the Red Sox again in getting Kyle Harrison from them?

2:27
Ben Clemens: fleece? I definitely would not use that word

2:28
Ben Clemens: I will say that I’ve been very impressed with Harrison thus far in 2026, and I’ve watched him in person quite a lot in my life so I feel like a qualified evaluator

2:29
Ben Clemens: I didn’t hate what the Sox did in just moving on from him for a hitter. But I have to say, it doesn’t feel amazing for the narrative that the Sox can make all pitchers better and thus desperately had to preserve their pitching infrastucture

2:30
Ben Clemens: It’s only five starts, and honestly, Harrison was pretty good in the majors for the Sox (in 12 innings, he was unremarkable in 50 AAA innings).

2:30
Ben Clemens: but I think my take on this trade has aged well. The Brewers traded for Durbin b/c they thought he was undervalued, their opinion of his value didn’t change much, but the Sox offered them a premium for him so they just said okay great!

2:30
Bohmer: Correlation is not causation. But Alec Bohm’s personal financial and legal situation with his parents, partnered with the LITERAL WORST qualified wRC+ … those have to be connected, right?

2:30
Ben Clemens: um, yes

2:31
Ben Clemens: I don’t need a model to tell you that these are probably related

2:31
Ben Clemens: I feel for the guy. What a terrible situation. I hope things resolve in a way he can be happy or at least at peace with

2:31
Alec: Will Spencer Torkelson continue to increase his slugging percentage by 200 points every five games? I’ll hang up and listen

2:31
Ben Clemens: I’m going to say yes

2:32
Ben Clemens: (no, but I do think that he’s a great reminder of how hard it is to make conclusions this early in the year. In last weeks’ chat, ‘is tork done?’ was a popular question)

2:32
Ben Clemens: now he has a 134 wrC+ with great peripherals

2:32
Trade Enjoyer: If we’re talking about fleece’s, might be worth bringing up Taylor Ward. Currently running a 152 WRC+ for the O’s while Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t even made a start yet. Another unfortunate Angels trade?

2:33
Ben Clemens: that’s a fun one to me, so let’s talk about it

2:33
Ben Clemens: it’s too soon to say, but I’ve spent a lot of time talking about why injured pitchers are not very valuable in trade, so this is a good point to discuss that a bit more

2:35
Ben Clemens: we don’t really know if this was a bad or good deal for the Angels yet because they were playing for the long game, and Rodriguez was realistically unlikely to be ready this early in the year

2:35
Ben Clemens: like, were the Angels likely to get a more intriguing upside candidate than an elite starter who might turn out very good or might wither away to nothing? for a year of a corner outfielder? probably not

2:36
Ben Clemens: but yeah, this was in the range of outcomes, and I think that the general dislike of this trade at the time was massive

2:36
Ben Clemens: sample from teh comments:
I try not to overreact to offseason moves, but as an Orioles fan, this one has genuinely made me despondent. “

2:36
Ben Clemens: “The only reasonable explanation for this is that Rodriguez’s elbow is absolutely cooked.
But even if it is, if I was Baltimore, I feel like I’d rather gamble on him than sell low on him in this deal.”

2:37
Ben Clemens: “Like other commenters, I can’t see how this makes the Orioles better. There is no reason to cash in Rodriguez for a single season of 2.5 WAR OF production that will cost what, 14m? Talk about selling low. Ward barely has any surplus value.”

2:37
Ben Clemens: names redacted, etc., but my point is that clearly this trade still has a while to play out

2:37
21127: Edward Cabrera was injured and valuable in trade. Did the Cubs get fleeced?

2:37
Ben Clemens: fleece watch 2026!

2:38
HappyFunBall: I think the point there is that the hot takes of the FG Commentariat are no better than anyone else’s

2:38
Ben Clemens: oh yeah

2:38
Ben Clemens: it’s hard to be right about the future

2:38
Ben Clemens: that’s basically my point

2:39
Ben Clemens: as for Cabrera, that’s not exactly the kind of injury I’m talking about, he pitched 137 innings and made 26 starts last year

2:39
Ben Clemens: but I do take your point

2:39
Ben Clemens: hard and fast rules generally suck, the devil is in the details

2:39
bosoxforlife: Is it time to see if Andruw Monasterio can play on the left side of the Red Sox infield for an extended period of time? He has looked like he can hit the ball in the air with some power.

2:39
Ben Clemens: I mean, he beats the alternatives

2:39
Ben Clemens: i basically don’t think it’ll work. h e’s below replacement level in 2026!

2:40
Ben Clemens: but Trevor Story has a 40 wRC+, Durbin has a 47 wRC+, heck Meyer is at 77

2:40
Ben Clemens: try SOMETHING else

2:40
Yangervis Solarte: Rays traded Buggsy Patagonia to the Padres for Hector Northface. So fleeced.

2:40
Big Buckston: Austin Martin quietly still has a 0.500 OBP in 76 PAs this season after a strong finish to last season, with improved defense. He’s still mostly a short-side platoon guy but has hit RHP okay in his career. Do you buy the post-hype breakout, and that he could become an everyday player for the Twins?

2:40
Ben Clemens: I’m pretty into it!

2:41
Ben Clemens: he’s another guy that my models love so I’m probably a little biased, but I think we talked about him earlier in the season already, and yeah, the OBP is a real skill

2:41
Ben Clemens: and I’m willing to believe that it does a good job of countering a platoon matchup somewhat, because walks are walks

2:41
J Hench: As long as we are talking about fleecings – Mike Burrows looked a lot better for the Pirates than he currently looks for the Astros.  Is it just an early season slump?  Did the Pirates limit his innings in such a way that made him look like a more legitimate mid-rotation arm than he actually is?  What can Astros fans realistically expect at this point?

2:41
Ben Clemens: it’s still April! player talent level changes

2:42
Ben Clemens: that said, I mean, I don’t think Burrows is gonna keep being this bad but he looks abysmal so far

2:42
Ben Clemens: he’d love a reset on the year

2:42
Ben Clemens: i do not have a strong opinion of why. i do not think it has to do with innings limits, though, given that he’s pitching at a similar IP/GS clip this year

2:42
Derek: Will Mason Miller finish the season with a negative FIP?

2:42
Derek: lol Miller also has a negative xFIP at the moment

2:43
Ben Clemens: that is really wild

2:43
Ben Clemens: ummmm…. I mean, he probably won’t because he’ll give up a home run

2:43
Ben Clemens: down to a mere 61% strikeout rate, what a chump

2:43
Ben Clemens: but I think that he has a more credible case than any pitcher has in quite a while

2:44
Ben Clemens: maybe peak Chapman; if not, maybe no one ever

2:44
bosoxforlife: Monasterio at least passes the eye test and while I am not ready to give up on 2026 yet, I am fully amped up for every time Early and Tolle are going to toe the slab. Should keep 2026 from being a disaster.

2:44
Ben Clemens: yeah, like I said, gotta try something

2:44
A weirdo: Am I weird that I read FG daily but only watch maybe 9 innings a year?

2:44
Ben Clemens: no; before I wrote here, I went through periods like that for sure

2:45
Ben Clemens: baseball is so fun and intellectually interesting, and I might be biased but I think that we’re pretty good at highlighting those things here

2:45
Ben Clemens: watching a game is great too! I love watching games, I have a whole column series about noticing little things in games

2:45
Ben Clemens: but yeah, the math is just fun to consider. the peripheral interesting things in the game are fun to consider

2:45
Ben Clemens: even if you couldn’t watch

2:45
Guest: I don’t know, I’m personally pressing the panic button on Mason Miller because he hasn’t struck anybody out for two innings. Your article from two weeks ago has aged pretty well, but you’re going to feel awful silly when his .094 WOBA regresses to his…. uh… .101 XWOBA.

2:45
Ben Clemens: joy

2:46
Ben Clemens: it’s so fun

2:46
Ben Clemens: so my ‘must-watch’ list, which is more of a suggestion given how large it is, is currently Miller/Yamamoto/Schlittler/McLean. I index heavily to new is always better for pitchers, in case you can’t tell

2:46
Oaktown Blues: My fatal flaw in baseball analysis: I buy in too hard to small sample performance if the performance is supported by the underlying metrics. When a guy has strong K/BB and contact quality numbers, I tend to think “this guy is doing everything right, this has gotta be real!”, which ignores that there can be plenty of variance even in those faster stabilizing, more predictive stats. (but enough about Carlos Cortes)

2:46
Ben Clemens: yeah, this is a really tough thing to wrap your head around, and I’m definitely guilty of it more than I’d like to admit

2:47
Ben Clemens: it’s really hard to remember that players get hot and cold even in the ‘stable’ stuff

2:47
Mike Trout: Just want to show love to Trout. 22% walk rate to 20% K rate, his contact quality is as good as ever, his sprint speed has jumped back up, and is playing CF everyday.

2:48
Ben Clemens: yeah, what a bounceback season

2:48
Ben Clemens: I wrote about his walks earlier in the year, and honestly, I still think regression is coming there, but his ability to find new ways to succeed is admirable, and legendary

2:48
Dan’l: Shouldn’t the Cards attempt to sign Winn long-term? Great defense and decent contact-offense seems like something to build around for a while.

2:48
Ben Clemens: if there’s mutual interest, for sure

2:49
Ben Clemens: I don’t think there’s much argument that he’s an elite defender. he has 1500 PA worth of being an average-ish hitter, with the peripherals to match. that’s a nice player, and yeah, a nice build-around. Nico Hoerner vibes, perhaps, and Hoerner is great

2:49
The Actor for Al Pacino: Matt Shaw having a better batting line than Alex Bregman through a month of the season is pretty funny to me right now. Probably won’t last, but a good reminder that we shouldn’t evaluate 5-year deals one month of play into them

2:49
Ben Clemens: haha yeah, evaluating deals is had

2:49
Ben Clemens: hard

2:50
Ben Clemens: and yet, it’s so FUN to evaluate them early

2:50
J: Is there a more fun hitter right now than Moisés Ballesteros?

2:50
Ben Clemens: I think Yordan. but hey, another ‘mid-tier hitters I like’ alum, you love to see it

2:51
Ben Clemens: he and Miguel Vargas are two of my more flag-plant-y guys from this list, I love seeing them both thrive at the moment

2:51
CFH: 9-inning-a-year FG reader reporting – MLB TV blacks out the only team I want to watch, my apartment is too small for a TV with ESPN or whatever, and Fangraphs is fun

2:51
Ben Clemens: yeah, very reasonable imo

2:51
Ben Clemens: i mean, not the blackouts

2:51
Ben Clemens: but the situation and your response

2:51
jj: What numbers do Mason Miller need to have to win NL cy young?

2:52
Ben Clemens: if he ends the year with, like, 1 run allowed in 65 innings, maybe 5 WAR? I don’t think this is very likely, just so we’re clear

2:52
Guest: 2026 GB% below 35, pull rate above 50, the fastest swing in this group (at just 72.1) is…

2:52
Guest: (… Cole Young)

2:52
Ben Clemens: in case you’re wondering what Cole Young is doing right this year

2:52
Ben Clemens: strange plan in Seattle, I’m curious to see how it pans out

2:53
Kevin McGonigle: Am I wrong to think that people don’t realize just how crazy and historic a start to my career I’ve gotten off to? I think it deserves more attention!

2:53
Ben Clemens: yeah, really really good so far

2:53
bosoxforlife: Watching what Mason Miller has done brings me instantly to Leo deVries. The last time two top prospects were traded for one another was Zac Gallen for Jazz Chisholm which has been sort of a wash sale. Both good but not great. This latest deal is far more interesting.

2:53
Ben Clemens: eveyrone loves a challenge trade

2:53
Ben Clemens: I’m curious how DeVries will turn out, but the fact that he’s at Double-A and doing passably well is very impressive

2:54
Platoons: Why do teams seem to start so many rookies in platoons? Is it better for them to get a taste of everything or improve on one side before tackling the other?

2:54
Ben Clemens: yeah, I think that’s basically it

2:54
Derek: Bobby Witt Jr.’s defensive evolution is unreal… From a minor question mark as a prospect to now having an argument for being the best defender in baseball regardless of position! I know defense is generally less fruitful analytical territory but I’d love to see an article on the improvements he’s made over the years that have made his defense so valuable.

2:54
Ben Clemens: I looked into it briefly at one point

2:54
Ben Clemens: probably during fielding bible voting

2:55
Ben Clemens: it’s very impressive. It actually brings to mind Fernando Tatis Jr’s improvement at short (and then again in right) as a tooled-out guy who just needed to let game speed and his own freakish internal clock sync up

2:55
Ben Clemens: Witt was making, like, over-effort mistakes

2:55
Ben Clemens: as was Tatis

2:55
Darren: Is Jarren Duran cooked?

2:55
Ben Clemens: no

2:56
Ben Clemens: but the perils of holding on to a bunch of guys who you can’t currently use are more evident than ever

2:56
Ben Clemens: because, like, they might decline. or public opinion of htem might decline

2:56
Jacob Wilson: Am I in the danger zone yet? I’ve walked once (1) in 117 PAs and am sporting a 45.6% chase rate. Am I going the way of recent vintage Arraez with the “just because I can make contact with everything, doesn’t mean I should” approach?

2:56
Ben Clemens: 100% yes. In my opinion, you were always in the danger zone (projected) because of the contact issue

2:57
Ben Clemens: but it’s more evident when it’s happening, you know?

2:57
Arathorn: Can we add Samuel Basallo to the list of players who are fun to just watch hit?

2:57
Ben Clemens: for sure. I like the big hulking slugger archetype if they have good mannerisms at the plate, and Basallo fits the bill for me for sure

2:57
Ben Clemens: alright guys, only a one hour chat today because I need to get back to this strike zone article and crank out some graphs and methodology sections

2:57
Ben Clemens: but let’s do a lightning round before I head out

2:58
Ben Rice: Hey, don’t forget how fun a hitter I am!

2:58
Ben Clemens: too true

2:58
Baseball learner: Do you think the Blue Jays make the playoffs at this point? They haven’t done themselves any favors

2:58
Ben Clemens: yes, but they need to get moving soon

2:58
PQRK: How you feeling about the goat Dillon Dingler rn?

2:58
Ben Clemens: fun to watch, underrated

2:58
Rick: Is Trevor Rogers someone to keep or more of a streamer?

2:58
Ben Clemens: keep I think? Not a strong view

2:58
Eli: Does anything underscore the unfairness of manager’s careers that Alex Cora was fired before Aaron Boone?

2:59
Ben Clemens: definitely surprising, but I dunno if it’s ‘unfair’ per se

2:59
Josh: Obviously, Justin Wrobleski is not running a 1.50 ERA with his current K/BB rate. But have you seen enough to consider him a quality back of the rotation guy? Do you think there’s more there? (Another Dodger development win)

2:59
Ben Clemens: no

2:59
Ben Clemens: need more data

2:59
Sid the Astros Kid: Howdy Ben, with how the Astros are hitting. If the pitching holds how it is currently for them (poorly), even with some reinforcements slated to come back midseason-ish, do you think they’re aggressively in the market for an arm/willing to trade an infielder for a back of the rotation piece? As a biased fan I think if we had a bang-average rotation we’d be shredding teams right now

2:59
Ben Clemens: I do think so, yes

2:59
War2D2: Call him Mars because Nico Hoerner is the God of WAR.

…is this anything?

2:59
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna be honest with you: no, it’s not

2:59
Ben Clemens: but that said…. Hoerner is great, and WAR is the ultimate Nico Hoerner stat

2:59
Ben Clemens: Hi, Eric Hosmer, if you’re reading (you’re not)

3:00
Insert Witty Name Here: I know that kids can’t start baseball late and end up being good hitters (I think?), but now that technology for improving pitchers is so advanced, do you think there’s a limit to where you can randomly get an older 6’3″ dude who’s relatively athletic and get him to at least be serviceable?

3:00
Ben Clemens: maybe. million dollar arm, or whatnot

3:00
Isit2026yet?: Tell me why the Pirates shouldn’t trade Seth Hernandez for Dylan Crews and Seaver King to try and max out Paul Skenes’ window as soon as next season with those guys at PNC?

3:01
Ben Clemens: I mean, because the Nats probably own’t trade two top 10 picks including the 1 overall, one of whom is mashing in double-a this year

3:01
Ben Clemens: and also like…. ‘max out Skenes’s window by trading for a guy with a 77 wRC+ in triple-A’ would not be good decision making by the Pirates

3:01
The Obligatory Question: What is/was for lunch?

3:02
Ben Clemens: leftovers from a baked gnocchi tray bake that was really really good

3:02
Insert Witty Name Here: Do we miss pitchers hitting?

3:02
Ben Clemens: i do. not enough to want them back, but I do

3:02
Ben Clemens: and with that, I’m out. have a wonderful day, everyone





Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.

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MTfor42Member since 2025
2 months ago

baked gnocci? sounds like a fancy shepherds pie, depending on compliments. I usually bake my spaghetti on a sheet pan. crispy, caramelized bits FTW.