Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/10/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to a Monday chat. Kevin juuuuust finished, but if you somehow have any baseball questions left over, I’m here for you.

Dan: If the 25 best pitchers in the national league collectively decided to sit out the rest of the season (to pick an extreme hypothetical instead of hypothically injuring people) would that distort the WAR that the remaining pitcher or hitters get?

Ben Clemens: So, for our WAR at least, there are some constants

Ben Clemens: There’s 1000 WAR to assign across both leagues, and we have a pre-determined split between pitchers and hitters

Ben Clemens: it’s about 60/40 hitters but I forget the exact amount

Ben Clemens: So it wouldn’t distort the total amount, b/c that’s an exogenous thing, we just set it. But if you were the 26th-best pitcher, you’d look a lot better, b/c replacement level would fall meaningfully

Chip: Do you have any hope for Luzardo when he returns, or is he just bad now?

Ben Clemens: I have hope for sure.

Ben Clemens: I’m not really sure what the cause for concern would be so early in the year. He’s given up some more dingers, and he’s walking a few more guys, but neither is overwhelming, and it’s been six starts

Ben Clemens: 28 innings only

Ben Clemens: I’m good with waiting quiiiiite a lot longer before I say he’s bad now

Easy E: Which SPs (if any) do you like for this week? Cueto @PIT, T Anderson vs SF, D German @BAL or Heaney @HOU

Ben Clemens: I’m interested in Cueto, had him in fantasy, but I decided to drop him and re-evaluate after his first start back off the IL

Ben Clemens: it was really bad!

Ben Clemens: I think he’s fine against the Pirates, but it’s just not a great feeling to have him look so shaky in his first start back. Velo was up, hence why I’m okay taking a shot, but I’d have a very short leash on him in general. If he’s bad against the Pirates I’m kinda off him

Eel Ffilc: Indians O/U 2.5 no-hitters against this season?

Ben Clemens: I have to say over, they are just…. they’re just not a good hitting team at all, and this isn’t a new thing

Ben Clemens: I’m willing to say they probably aren’t going to go out and add bats at the trading deadline, b/c that’s just not their style

Ben Godar: What do you think… Pujols to the Cardinals… is it gonna happen?

Ben Clemens: Maybe some kind of ceremonial thing if nothing else pans out? (also hi Ben)

Ben Clemens: But if he’s really asking for everyday playing time, it’s out of the question

Ben Clemens: If he cools down from that and says he wants to wear a Cardinals uniform again, get a home start, and retire

Ben Clemens: Then I think it’s basically 100% they’d do it

Jacques Pederson: The Cardinals, huh? I’m surprised. Are you?

Ben Clemens: I mean, marginally? 21-14 isn’t a world-beating record, they’ve played a bunch of bad teams so far, and it’s early

Ben Clemens: But still, yeah, they look good! It’s fun to watch

Ben Clemens: Turns out that adding Nolan Arenado to a playoff team is a good baseball move

LFC Mike: Hi Ben.  League batting avg. is .234,OBA  .311, OPS .702.There have 4 or 5 no hitters already thrown (depending on who you talk to). There have been 9,085 strikeouts vs. 7,823 hits…it seems almost any random  #3 or #4 starter can K 8 or 9  guys in a start. Is this it for the year? or will hitters hopefully get a bit better. Love the game, love fantasy baseball…but it is a bit of a downer

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s gone too far for my taste

Ben Clemens: I like pitching a lot, it’s really fun to watch good pitchers

Ben Clemens: It’s a little bit less fun to watch when it’s hard to tell who the good pitchers are because everyone is striking out 12

Ben Clemens: Things will get a bit better as the weather warms up, but I think it’s fair to point a finger at the new ball and say “hey this thing might be a problem”

Ben Clemens: As might the perpetual march of history

Dalton Wilcox: Why 1000 WAR?

Ben Clemens: Maybe the best way to say it is that empirical measurements converge on that

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/win-values-explained-part-four/

Ben Clemens: Here’s an old blog post by Dave Cameron about it

Neil: over the next 4 years who do you think has the better chance at a higher war kyle lewis or austin hays?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d take Lewis, I think he’s more likely to be able to sustain what he’s doing in terms of the power and fielding making up for average plate discipline

Ben Clemens: They do feel somewhat similar to me, though

Guest: How worried (if any) should we be about McKenzie Gore’s command issues thus far? I saw his first start in AAA didn’t go so well – 3 IP, 3 ER. Do you still think he lives up to his 70 FV grade?

Ben Clemens: I’ll generally defer to Eric and Kevin on questions like these, except to say that definitely don’t judge minor leaguers after one start

Ben Clemens: However worried you were before spring training about his command, be that worried now

DJ: Yesterday the Brewers used Josh Hader in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game, and then brought in Drew Rasmussen to pitch the 10th inning. When their best case scenario in the bottom of the 9th is just getting to extra innings wouldn’t they be much better off saving a high strikeout, low WHIP reliever such as Hader for extra innings given the new extra runner rule?

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/save-your-closer-terms-and-conditions-may-…

Ben Clemens: I 100% think so and wrote about it last year

Ben Clemens: Definitely think someone should do this

Fernando Tatis Jr.: When should the Padres worry about his long-term sustainability at shortstop? He’s bottom of the barrel in errors, OAA, DRS, and UZR (my UZR/150 is -38.5!). Obviously they need his bat in the lineup, but if this downturn is more than just noise, they have to at least think about it, right?

Ben Clemens: After I dunno, 2.5 years of consistently bad defense? If it’s visually awful, less than that

Ben Clemens: Errors are the type of bad defense I’d be least concerned about, as well

Ben Clemens: Like, if his range takes a huge dive, faster

Ben Clemens: But if it’s throwing errors (and it is, he’s doing REALLY badly there)

Ben Clemens: That’s not really indicative of a core problem

Ben Clemens: It has been really weird to see him go from spraying errors everywhere (in 2019)

Ben Clemens: to really clean (in 2020)

Ben Clemens: back to spraying errors everywhere

Ben Clemens: Don’t really know how to think about that, honestly

tony: lindor gonna turn his hitting around?

Ben Clemens: I’ll go out on a limb and say yes (note: not out on a limb)

Jacob: Does Fangraphs still keep pitcher pace on record?  I’m having trouble finding it.

Ben Clemens: We lost it at some point, and I don’t remember when.

Ben Clemens: I will come back to you on this

Ben > Roger: If you could turn fangraphs into a site about anything else other than baseball, what would you choose?

Ben Clemens: Wonderful question. Perhaps graphs about fans, as that would keep the name going

Ben Clemens: But more realistically, something about games. Board (and card) games are probably the thing I spend the most time thinking about after baseball

proiste: What has caused Matt Barnes to turn into vintage Craig Kimbrel?

Ben Clemens: Find out tomorrow!

Ben Clemens: (because I’m writing about him)

Ben Clemens: (not as we speak, but before the chat and I will be again after it)

Curtis: Is parity good for the product called “Major League Baseball”?

Ben Clemens: I don’t thikn so, honestly

Ben Clemens: I don’t feel super strongly about this opinion

Ben Clemens: But I find I enjoy the parity-filled division races quite a bit less than when there are really good teams to argue over

Ben Clemens: And root against/for depending on allegiance

Ben Clemens: I also think that parity leads to teams not trying to improve all that hard in the way the game is currently set up, which is just bad overall

Ben Clemens: That said, having the same teams always be the good ones is frustrating, and I get that parity helps with that

Ben Clemens: I suppose what I’m saying is that this is a great question

mike: have you seen anything to suggest that the new ball is affecting hitters differently?  Anecdotally it seems like those hitters that aren’t league average (let’s call them bottom of the lineup guys) are being impacted more.  Maybe I just follow a team where that is feels true…

Ben Clemens: One thing that I’m pretty sure of is that batters who needed good batted ball results to float their output are being hurt the most

Ben Clemens: I’m not really sure how to track that back to where people bat in the lineup, but it wouldn’t shock me

Guest: If parity is not ideal, are you cool with the Cardinals being crappy for a while?

Ben Clemens: I would be, but I’m not sure if I would have been as a non-writing fan

Ben Clemens: Personally, I have always followed baseball relatively broadly, but I could see it weighing on one-team fans a lot, and that’s a big market for the game

Ben Clemens: On the other hand, Cardinals fans would have no right to complain if they were bad for a little

Neil: Do you think the mets projected odds of 70% to win the division are a little high?

Ben Clemens: Oh, for sure. I think that this early in the season, the extremes of our odds can be somewhat strange. This really comes down to the fact that we were quite low on the Braves and Phillies coming into the season

Ben Clemens: And that the Mets’ depth is sketchy, which we don’t account for in the way I probably would if I built it from scratch

Chris: Did you fall for the fake kelenic mariners pr account too like every national writer?

Ben Clemens: Even better, I didn’t even see it until after it was debunked

Ben Clemens: So I didn’t fall for it, by default

Matt: Ben, who is the worst MLB player you would trade Gary,Keith, and Ron as your broadcast crew for? So you get the player on your team, but you get replacement level TV guys.

Ben Clemens: If I were only going to watch one broadcast and watch it every day, it would be a high bar

Ben Clemens: as in, I’d give up a lot to have GKR

Ben Clemens: Mostly G, in fairness, but yeah

Ben Clemens: Using the Cardinals, maybe DeJong or Goldschmidt?

Ben Clemens: but I would listen to arguments that it’s any cardinal

Ben Clemens: Would I deal Flaherty for getting a+ announcing every day? Actually probably yes

Matt: for what its worth, I listened to a Nats broadcast, and decided not even trout

Ben Clemens: The Nats’ radio crew is excellent

Ben Clemens: If you can get them as an overlay, I highly recommend it

Ben Clemens: But yeah, the TV group, woof

Ben Clemens: not my favorite

Guest: Do you think Trent Grisham is the real deal?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s *a* real deal

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s going to continue his .515 slugging percentage, or honestly .370 obp

Ben Clemens: But I think that he can be an above average hitter who plays an above average center field

Ben Clemens: So basically an All Star

Ben Clemens: does that count?

Marshall: Why are such a disproportionate number of the all-time WAR leaders from ~100 years ago? On some level, WAR is intended to adjust across eras, right?

Ben Clemens: I’d argue that the standardization of baseball has a lot to do with this

Ben Clemens: If 100 years ago a team needed to fill out its rosters, replacement level might be REALLY bad

Ben Clemens: It might be a local pastor, or a steelworker who had some free time in the evenings

Ben Clemens: (maybe not that bad, but not far off)

Ben Clemens: now replacement level is an athlete who has been training for 15 years for his shot

Master B.: Hey, Ben — Have you caught Vidal Brujan’s work in AAA thus far? 5 HR in 5 games, 3 from his historically weaker side (right). This dude seems like a potential fantasy monster. Your thoughts?

Ben Clemens: Big fan! Hvae him on my Ottoneu team and couldn’t be happier about it

Ben Clemens: My prospect bench is Bobby Witt, Nolan Gorman, Brujan, and Austin Martin, so we’re playing for next year, to say the least

Ben Clemens: Update on pace from earlier: we’re aiming to get it back to the site before long, just a data issue

Guest: What part of the Mets depth do you find sketchy? Not dissenting, just curious. As a fan, it seems to me that their depth has actually helped keep them afloat while some of the regular have struggled and/or been injured in the early going. Bench players have stepped up, and guys they’ve brought up have come up big on a few occasions. Even pitching-wise- they have probably misused Lucchesi a couple of times in the early going, but the guys they have been cycling through on options have been serviceable.

Ben Clemens: I probably misspoke by just calling the depth sketchy

Ben Clemens: More what I mean is that they get a disproportionate amount of value from stars, such that if you discount some likelihood of their stars being hurt, it affects them more than their competitors

Ben Clemens: I think that with deGrom going on the IL, you’ll see a big hit to probability, for exmaple

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The new Serious Eats redesign is terrible. Way too much whitespace and the photos interspersed with the steps make the mobile website frustrating to use in the kitchen. It looks like every recipe agglomeration blogspam site.
https://www.seriouseats.com/beer-cheese-recipe
(Also, we had that sauce with roasted broccoli and the King Arthur pretzels recipe here, following the tip to make pretzel bites https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/recipes/hot-buttered-soft-pretzels-re… and it was all delicious.)

Ben Clemens: Okay sorry I didn’t totally answer the Mets question but I had to throw this up

Ben Clemens: Yes I totally agree, the new redesign is awful

Ben Clemens: Not a big fan at all

Ben Clemens: I’ve always wondered how to make beer cheese!

Guest: soft pretzels made with sourdough starter discard are my new jam… give it a shot if you have starter available to you…

Ben Clemens: I really should have some sourdough starter. I’m an embarrassment to San Francisco as-is

WHYGJoseTabata: If you take away the first week of the season and left handed pitching from Gregory Polanco you basically have a great hitter against right handed pitching. You think an AL team will have interest if he can continue his 900 plus OPS against RHP?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. basically no?

Ben Clemens: He does have a huge platoon split, I totally believe that

Ben Clemens: I do not believe that you can just ignore those results against LHP this year (.000/.105/.000 lol)

Ben Clemens: Research on platoon splits has shown, time after time, that total production plus a heavily regressed guess at platoon talent

Ben Clemens: Outweighs looking at the individual splits

Ben Clemens: and Polanco’s overall game this year isn’t without redeeming features, but it’s not pretty

Marshall: Following up on my previous question, would it make sense to use a “standardized” wins above replacement (i.e., using a number of standard deviations of wins above replacement)?

Ben Clemens: I’d have to think more about this one, but maybe. I think more relevantly, you just shouldn’t compare Deacon White, a sick 1800’s hitter, to Andrew McCutchen and try to ascertain who is better for their era

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Someone may have written this, but I’d be really interested in seeing the warning track outs this year that would have been homers last year. I feel like I’m seeing more flyouts that would have gone out in the juiced ball era, and I’m curious the extent to which that’s true and who’s “lost” the most homers from it.

LFC Mike: Ben… We need you settle a raging argument on another FG chat… Chili: Better with  or without beans?

Ben Clemens: (I didn’t have a great answer for the HR question, b/c it’s something I’m considering doing)

Ben Clemens: But for me, chili can be had with or without beans, and I like it better with beans

Ben Clemens: Dan and I will inevitably have to settle this with a duel, I know

Joe Shlabotnik: When I hear that a rehabbing player is taking part in a simulated game, I picture me at 10-12 years old with a couple-few friends: one of us pitching, one at bat, the rest of us cycling from roaming the IF/OF to at-bats. Imaginary baserunners. Single-double-triple-HR assigned to areas of the field. That’s what it looks like for MLB players too, right?
Seriously, though…how “real” is a MLB-rehab-level simulated game?

Ben Clemens: Wonderful question that I don’t completely know the answer to, but it’s closer to what you’re describing than I thought for a long time

Ben Clemens: Much more focused on batter/pitcher confrontation

Neil: What do you think would be a bigger lose Degrom going on the IL or Ronald Acuna going on the IL?

Ben Clemens: Gut feel is dG, we project him for more WAR and pitcher injury average duration feels longer

Guest: I respect that math and science would discount the Mets winning probability with deGrom on the IL- but given the Mets’ track record in games deGrom starts, maybe not? At least this year, they can throw out Jordan Yamamoto or Tommy Hunter, compared to some of the spot starters they’ve brought up in recent years…

Ben Clemens: Yeah, their depth is better this year than in years past, no doubt

Ben Clemens: Lucchesi and Yamamoto were really nice pickups I think

Ben Clemens: not to mention Walker

Ben Clemens: and hey, just imagine how bad the mets would have been in those games WITHOUT degrom

Appa Yip Yip: I see any bad tv announcers you want to name and raise you Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler being simulcast so they ruin both the television and radio product.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, what the Jays (and Rogers) are doing with radio broadcasts is rouuuuuugh

Ben Clemens: (i wasn’t completeyl sure which letter to emphasize)

Farhandrew Zaidman: If we calibrate the PANIC-O-METER to mid-May, where do the Dodgers score? 5/10? The offensive struggles seem related to more than just injuries.

Ben Clemens: For mid-May, I think that 5/10 is appropriate

Ben Clemens: Of course, that’s normalized to May. On the overall panic scale it’s still like a 2/10

Angry Nats Fan: The Nats announcers are good once you get used to them

Ben Clemens: Eh, I don’ think it’s that. One of my best friends is a huge Nats fan, as is my mom, I’ve listened to a lot of Nats games. I don’t care for FP, and he may not even be there much longer, I just don’t find the TV broadcast to be an engaging listen personally

Ben Clemens: whereas I love the radio guys

Mike Trout: Is my K rate mildly concerning for the future. Obviously the slash line is great but trout has no K at this rate in a while

Ben Clemens: I do think it’s mildly concerning

Ben Clemens: I’m less worried about him swinging more, because that’s a normal fluctuation

Ben Clemens: More worried about the declining contact rate, which is driving the uptick in swinging strikes and strikeouts

Ben Clemens: Like you said, the overall line plays, but I’d be worried that a whiff-heavier game will lead to lower production long-term

Appa Yip Yip: If you’re meh on parity, how do you feel about competitive balance picks that also are somehow the only ones that can be traded? I kind of think they’re dumb.

Ben Clemens: Not a big fan of competitive balance picks as currently implemented

Ben Clemens: I don’t hate the idea, it’s reasonable to find ways to level the playing field for teams, but I’d rather have it be more explicitly done with revenue sharing

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Mike Trout is just striking out so everyone feels like they have a chance. It’s clearly by design, duh!

Ben Clemens: Yes, it’s a long con. He’s so good that he can’t let us know how good he is, or we’d stop being interested

Charley: Alex verdugo better than what people say? He can be an above avg CF/all star no? Why do I think he has more power than people say…? And he’s stealing more bases.. or is it too early for me to get excited. He’s out producing some guy named mookie Betts right now….

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure what people say about Verdugo, but hasn’t he always been regarded as an above-average regular? That’s what’s been going on this year so far, and the strikeout rate improvement sure is nice. I don’ think he’ll sustain his .362 OBP but yeah, nice player

Ben Clemens: Still easily take Mookie over him

Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.: Hope for a Suarez bounceback?

Ben Clemens: Uhhhh

Ben Clemens: It’s safe to say I’m worried

Ben Clemens: Let’s see if I can phrase that a little better

Ben Clemens: There’s so much going wrong

Ben Clemens: Across so many different areas

Ben Clemens: That I’m incredibly worried

Ben Clemens: Every facet of his plate discipline is worse. He’s swinging more at balls, less at strikes, making less contact with each

Ben Clemens: His power on contact has cratered

Ben Clemens: It just feels really bad to me, and given that he’s randomly playing shortstop now, it wouldn’t shock me if the rigors of doing that are affecting him

Ben Clemens: Also the fielding does not look great!

Ben Clemens: OAA has him 10 runs below average, and the worst player in baseball regardless of position when going to his right

Ben Clemens: It’s hardly surprising that a third baseman would have trouble ranging right

Mike Trout: Re: in general can player have 150 ish PA with “abnormal” contact rates?  Mike Trout has always been fantastic at adjusting to what new idea pitchers try to attack him with.

Ben Clemens: Oh for sure

Ben Clemens: Most likely outcome is that he snaps back with no ill effects and keeps mashing

Ben Clemens: It’s just more worrisome, relatively, than if he had some bad batted ball results

Charley: Hot take or legit: Carson Kelly and  Jared Walsh.. both breakouts r real. Possible all stars?

Ben Clemens: I’ll say legit, and not (at least not exclusively) b/c one of my bold takes for the year was that Kelly would be an all star

Ben Clemens: He looks good in the exact way I want him to look good

45 blows billygoats: I get so excited when I see a post highlighted in blue because it means one of my questions is getting answered. No blue posts today….what gives????

Ben Clemens: Extreme personal dislike

Ben Clemens: Slash, my attention span is such that I basically focus on a question and answer it

Ben Clemens: Then look at the queue again and look for hte first one that I want to talk about

Ben Clemens: meanwhile lots of questions have gone by

Ben Clemens: I would not say it’s anything like a system

Ben Clemens: So, either that or the personal dislike

Ben Clemens: (but no, it’s that)

Sean: Wouldn’t one way to minimize the negative reality regarding umpiring behind the plate be to get rid of the strike box? Annoying as it is anyway, it would at least relegate us to arguing objectionably rather than factually.

Ben Clemens: I definitely agree with this

Ben Clemens: The boxes aren’t even always right!

Jacques Pederson: I think radio broadcasters are usually better, because the “dead air” has no visuals to back it up and therefore you are more likely to get anecdotes (usually fueled by beers if you listen to the Cards broadcasts)

Ben Clemens: Yeah, the results of our crowdsourcing bore this out as well

Ben Clemens: Obviously we didn’t standardize the people voting between the two, but radio scored consistently higher, and that matches my general feel for games as well

Ben Clemens: I think that good TV crews are reallllly good, but that the average level in radio is higher

Ben Clemens: And yes, there were several beverage-related comments about the Cardinals radio crew that I did not publish lol

Tom: How about Waino yesterday?? If he continues as is, and wants in another year, do the cardinals continue to go year to year? Love to watch him pitch, but also would really like to see him go out pitching well….

Ben Clemens: I think that they’ll go year to year as long as he wants to play and can start

Ben Clemens: I’d like to see them win a world series this year (hot take here!) and have him bookend his career with WS’s

Ben Clemens: that would just be really enjoyable

Ben Clemens: Stars retiring in a blaze of glory is just the best

Appa Yip Yip: If you’re chasing the high of the highlighted blue comment, go to Dan’s chat he’ll post any rat brained nonsense you can think of. “Is a RICE BALL filled with BEAN CHILI a SANDWICH?”

Ben Clemens: Of course it is!

Ben Clemens: (it’s not)

Ben Clemens: I’m an ingredient anarchist as long as the structure is traditional, but if you’re goin to have a non-traditional structure, I think you need bread surrounding toppings to be a sandwich

LFC Mike: Ben.. I understand Dan is seeking out dueling pistols…..just an FYI…

Ben Clemens: Luckily for me he lives far away. I wouldn’t doubt Dan’s ability to secure weird old-fashioned gimmicks like dueling pistols, and I have fired a pistol exactly once in my life, so I don’t like my odds

45 blows billygoats: Which Brad Keller can we expect moving forward…the 2019 or the 2020 version?

Ben Clemens: Probably something in-between

Ben Clemens: (hi! I’m Ben! I like making milquetoast statements!)

Ben Clemens: I don’t feel qualified to talk about Keller, b/c basically I thought he was terrible

Ben Clemens: Then Barton Smith noticed all his wild pitches

Ben Clemens: with gyro spin that did weird things

Ben Clemens: And I thought ‘oh I guess I’ve been missing this, I’m in!’

Ben Clemens: now he’s bad, which is what I was predisposed to think in the first place

Ben Clemens: but in the meantime my mental accounting changed

Ben Clemens: So I don’t think my answer would be any good

I don’t think so: Stars retiring in a blaze of glory, seems to me it typically doesn’t work all that well for them. Too many become embittered geezers, before which so many try to come back anyway and look lousy then.

I don’t think so: I 100% think Frank White had it right. “Make them tear the uniform off your back”.

Ben Clemens: I really don’t enjoy watching my favorite players from the past trying and failing to hang on, but I don’t begrudge them the right to try

LFC Mike: Rice Ball filled with Bean Chili sounds like an hors d’oeuvre to me…

Ben Clemens: sandwiches can be hors d’ouvres

Jacques Pederson: How many active pitchers make the hall of fame?

Ben Clemens: Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Greinke. I feel comfortable penciling those guys in — four active WAR leaders plus deGrom’s insane trajectory

Ben Clemens: So the question is then how many other pitchers are going to get there. I don’t think that many (any?) other pitchers over 30 have a shot — it’s like Strasburg, Sale, Lester, Wainwright, Price in that group

Ben Clemens: and eh

Ben Clemens: Oh I guess Gerrit Cole is over 30, and he has a shot

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say 10. I think one or two active relievers make it, and there’s a really good young crop of pitchers at the moment

Farhandrew Zaidman: Which recent mega contract has the most risk for a negative return? Seems like Mookie needs to play really well for a long time.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s either Tatis or Cole, particularly if you grade Tatis on a curve b/c his contract buys out some cheaper years of team control

Ben Clemens: Cole is someone I’ve just always been too low on

Ben Clemens: So I’m probably wrong there

Ben Clemens: But pitcher contracts of that size scare me

Fish: Kimbrel and Chapman as your relievers with a chance?

Ben Clemens: They both have a shot, and it wouldn’t be outlandish if Hader or some other young good closer eventually made it, though it’s obviously unlikely

LFC Mike: How optimistic are you that Dom Smith can get it going? .222 with a .271 OBA  .323 slg  is just hard to look at..

Ben Clemens: I’d say I’m marginally worried about Dom. Contact quality has not been good this year, which worries me more than the rest of it

Ben Clemens: I was buying into New Dom based on how much he mashed the ball last year, so seeing that backslide just feels ominous

Parity: Aaron Hicks has a .640ish ops and is only 14 pct below average. This offensive season…

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s gross!

Ben Clemens: the league batting line this year is .234/.311/.391

Ben Clemens: .311 OBP ewwwwwww

Ben Clemens: I’d rather watch this year than 2014 still, when OBP was just as low, slugging was lower, and strikeouts were already above 20%

Ben Clemens: but it’s getting bad again

Ben Clemens: making such a dramatic change in equipment (the new ball) is making it hard to know what’s causing this but yiiiiikes

Darrin: Ty France or Josh Rojas this week?

Ben Clemens: a very cursory look would have me say France

Ben Clemens: but caveat, I have not done a deep dive and don’t own either in my single fantasy league

Isolated Thinker: Any correlation between poor offense and batters facing many pitchers they haven’t seen in 2 seasons or more?

Ben Clemens: I’ve never found a familiarity effect, but htat doesn’t mean it isn’t there

Ben Clemens: Just means I haven’t found it

Ben > Roger: How are your fantasy leagues doing? I figure I’d ask a question no one has ever asked you before.

Ben Clemens: Haha I’m 3-7 in my Ottoneu league that I took over from Craig Edwards upon his departure

Ben Clemens: one big issue is that both Alex Chamberlain and Eno are in the league, so the two people I read for fantasy advice most are literally my opponents

Ben Clemens: that seems not great for my chances, to say the least

45 blows billygoats: So wait…you’re saying Brad Keller $ucks???

Ben Clemens: I’m saying that I’m realllllly not sure. Weak answer but yeah, I’m really not sure

A cat: Do the A’s finally move if the latest stadium proposal fails? They are asking for quite a bit of infrastructure support from a city dealing with massive social issues.

Ben Clemens: I really don’t know. They’re asking for an amount they won’t get, totally agree with you on that

Ben Clemens: I am just not sure they’ll actually carry out their threat of moving

the scoundrels!: Meaning Alex and Eno are advising you one thing and doing something else?? Saving the ‘best’ advice for themselves?!? Shouldn’t you otherwise be tied with them?

Ben Clemens: Oh no, just they’re giving their advice on a few specific things, and I think that their overall processes are excellent

Ben Clemens: so I am maybe even with them on those few specific things

Ben Clemens: but way behind in every other category?

Johnny5Alive: Gotta activate Lamet this week in 13 team NL only roto, who am I dropping? Feyereisen, Luke weaver, or a bat like vanmeter. Weaver been killing me but I need Ks.

Ben Clemens: feyereisen for me, i’m not sold

nick: Would you drop Josh Bell or hold out a little longer? Other options to replace him include Grichuk, C. Taylor, Mullins, Ad. Garcia and Calhoun

Ben Clemens: Ugh, I think it’s time to move on

Ben Clemens: Hate saying it, I’m in Josh Bell’s book club for this month and his book pick was awesome — the mental game of baseball

Ben Clemens: But look, it’s early but his stats are realllllly bad

Jack: How worried are you about Greinke going forward?  Hard to start him against most teams these day.

Ben Clemens: Not that worried

Ben Clemens: He’s definitely had three bad games in a row, I won’t dispute that. He had two fiarly good games before that, and decent starters have big ups and downs naturally

Ben Clemens: His velo is steady

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s awesome or anything, but I’m not even a little ready to say he’s cooked

Bang bang: Has Yuli Gurriel somehow learned to take a walk at age 37 or is this just a weird month of plate discipline?

Ben Clemens: Mostly weird month, but it’s a very promising sign that he’s swinging less at pitches across the board

Ben Clemens: For a guy like him with an aggressive approach, I think swinging a little bit less is usually very positive. I don’ think he’ll keep his sudden improvement in recognition, but I buy that he might swing a bit less

Appa Yip Yip: Speaking of Grichuk, he’s had hot months before but this time around he’s cut his k% down below 20 and has upped his contact rate, and it seems like he’s sacrificing power for contact under the assumption that he’s strong enough that xbh will come if he gets the bat on the ball. Cautiously optimistic?

Ben Clemens: I’m a total sucker for Randal

Ben Clemens: You can’t take my views on him without a major grain of salt

Ben Clemens: That said, yeah, I generally like it. A lot of the gains came last year, imo, and he was even improving a bit in 2019

Ben Clemens: but if he’s a 10% swinging strike guy instead of a 15% swinging strike guy, the whole package is a lot more interesting, and he was already a fine fourth outfielder even with the contact hole

Ben Clemens: I dunno, maybe that’s a curse, but I am willing to believe his contact rate has improved since his StL days, and if that’s the case there’s enough in the bat for sure

Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, I’m going to call it a chat.

Ben Clemens: Have a great day, everyone, and pray for Jacob deGrom’s health if you’re a praying type, b/c pleeeease