Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/11/26

Ben Clemens: Let’s get started right away and get some baseball talk in while I do some further investigation on the increased walk rate in the background

WagnerCrystal: I’m a giants fan, and looking at all the pieces that are coming out, it does seem Bailey was traded more due to Posey’s specific vision of what a catcher should do well. In the large picture it does seem like this FO doesn’t have a process or framework for analysis and largely shoots from the hip. Is this overreacting? Or am I correct in this FO being very much like the Padres 2.0 (old school gunslinger)?

Ben Clemens: I think the Athletic article was pretty interesting, and I think I agree with your first part – Posey has a vision for what a catcher should do well and Bailey doesn’t fit it

Ben Clemens: I’m less sure of the second. I think it’s probably too early to say. But i do think that ‘old school gunslinger’ in general probably is what the Giants were going for with Posey, really

Alex: Atlanta’s 2026 resurgence has been fuelled by better-than-expected performance from a lot of players – some less unsurprising (Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Chris Sale, the Lee-Suarez-Iglesias pen) and some much more so (Dom Smith, Mauricio Dubon, Bryce Elder, Martin Perez, and, to an extent, Ozzie Albies). Who’s doing it with smoke and mirrors, and who’s really playing better?

Ben Clemens: Well that’s a really broad question!

Ben Clemens: Like, ten articles worth of question

Ben Clemens: I feel like we’ve written about it quite a bit this year. The Braves are pretty fascinating, you know? I’d say that a big contributor is health, though

Ben Clemens: The Braves at full strength have been a good team for years. They’re not at full strength so much, or guys are playing hurt, or something

Ben Clemens: and I feel like they’re both getting the good side of injury variance and performance variance right now

Jay: Would Jordan Walker crack the Trade Value series if it came out right now?

Ben Clemens: definitely not, but that’s because no one would be on it

Ben Clemens: I’m not sitting here recalculating it every week

Ben Clemens: surely he’s in the broad group of players that is not a slam dunk to be on but who I’ll have to consider nonetheless

Ben Clemens: The tricky part here is that the actual numbers in 2026 are great but the projections are quite reasonably looking at all the bad results he’s produced in the past and hedging

Ben Clemens: Like, who do you like to have a better batting line the rest of the year, Walker or Brendan Donovan? Just to pick a former Cards example

Ben Clemens: models say Donovan by a good deal

Ben Clemens: I think I agree…. which makes it hard to have Walker super high

Tacoby Bellsbury: Has there ever been a bigger gap between a trade’s importance and its fantasy ramifications than the Patrick Bailey trade?

Ben Clemens: probably, just because there have been trades with more real-world importance, like prospect swaps and stuff

Ben Clemens: but yeah, Bailey is up there for the best real-world player with absolutely no fantasy relevance

Wethead: Since 1919 in AL+NL history, 2366 players have 2000+ PA. The highest career BABIP is, obviously, Brandon Marsh at .375, followed by 4 Hall of Famers. I have no question, just inarticulate noises of confusion. Please discuss.

Ben Clemens: believe it or not, someone at FG is writing about this very thing at this moment

Ben Clemens: (not me)

Empty Kegs: We know the Brewers have been “making their own luck” on the run prevention side by running out top end defenses and consistently beating their FIP to the tune of an extra 35 RA9 wins since 2016. Now since Matt Arnold took over in 2023 they have a middling 101 wRC+ (17th) but have scored the 7th most runs in MLB with some help from +43.2 BsR (1st) and a 118 wRC+ with RISP (2nd). Over their last 524 games they are around +0.20 actual runs per game over their BaseRuns estimates. Are we starting to have enough evidence mounting up that the Brewers are gaming sequencing for wins similarly to how they’ve been gaming FIP?

Ben Clemens: I think the baserunning runs juice is much more likely to be the culprit here

Ben Clemens: and yeah, as I think we’ve discussed, BaseRuns has a specific weakness there

Ben Clemens: I don’t quite buy the sequencing thing. It’s just very noisy and hard to measure, and also why wouldn’t they just tell those players to hit better more of the time

Ben Clemens: but I absolutely buy the baserunning thing

Ben Clemens: and I can buy that there’s some kind of secondary effect of contact playing up with runners on base because it forces the defense into unfamiliar/unfavored alignments

Bob Valdez: Trevor Story looks like he’s toast.  When will the Red Sox try something else?

Fin: I try to avoid small-sample overreactions early in the season. Trevor Story is walking 4.2% of the time, striking out 33.3% of the time, and has a 39 wRC+ despite a league-average .290 BABIP. When is it time for a DFA, assuming no one will take any of his money along with a prospect?

Ben Clemens: I’d be more willing to declare it totally over if he hadn’t done this exact thing as a Red Sock already

Ben Clemens: but like…. yes, it’s very worrisome, and if the Sox aren’t seriously considering making a chnage, that is strange

Ben Clemens: we were writing about how the left side of their infield was a weak point LAST YEAR

Ben Clemens: this is not some unexpected development

Ben Clemens: no one is likely to trade for him at the moment, because he’s not really startable for a playoff contender…. which is kind of the Sox’s problem here

Ben Clemens: I think that given the way their roster looks, they don’t have a lot of great options, but surely they’re thinking their way through some kind of phantom IL/Mayer to short scenario

Oaktown Blues: There are rumblings in the A’s fan community that Lawrence Butler should be sent down, either to free up playing time for Carlos Cortes or to open a spot for Henry Bolte. I personally think this would be too hasty of a decision; Butler’s been pretty unlucky this year. What say you?

Ben Clemens: yeah, too early for a change like that, if you did the amount of due diligence on Butler that they did and handed him a big contract extension, it follows that you can’t receive enough evidence in a month of 2026 play to override that

Sid the Astros Kid: Second question, I am going to Dallas for a trip during the summer months, would you recommend the more personal feel of a milb game with the Frisco RoughRiders (never been to a milb game), or go to a Rangers game?

Ben Clemens: oh man…. minor league for me if you’ve never been, and by a lot

Ben Clemens: I love minor league baseball, it’s actually why I got into baseball in the first place

Ben Clemens: I’d say make sure the weather isn’t crazy, but other than that

OW: I really like DeLauter using Take Me Home, Country Roads and Bazzana using Down Under as their walk up songs. What would be your geographically appropriate walkup song?

Ben Clemens: ooh, good question

Ben Clemens: I think I’d go with some random California song, of which there are many. Maybe the Freichswimmer California Dreamin’ remix? That’s on my running playlist

Ben Clemens: being from Tennessee or Virginia just doesn’t come with as many songs that I associate myself strongly with. I wasn’t from the Nashville area, and all my favorite Virginia artists are from the Pharrell/Clipse/Missy Elliott/Timbaland Virginia Beach area contingent, which is not where I’m from

bosoxforlife: One of the intriguing features of the 2026 season has been the remarkable resurgence of the bunt. Both for base hits against the shift and, especially, as a way to get a man in from 3rd with less than 2 outs. I believe it is because teams, the Rays notably, have recognized that excessive swing and miss has made scoring that man much more difficult. How do you see it?

Ben Clemens: I have been trying to figure out how to write about all the safety squeezes the Rays are doing

Ben Clemens: it’s really noticeable

360 Skubal No Scope: what the hell is a Skubal Scope

Ben Clemens: that whole interview, omg

Ben Clemens: I was getting Doctor Nik from the Simpsons vibes from Boras

Farhandrew Zaidman: Are walk up songs more for the player or more for the crowd?

Ben Clemens: I think it varies a lot by person. But I’d want to try to pick a middle ground

Ben Clemens: I think the crowd getting into it is a big part, but I’d want it to also hype me up

Ben Clemens: For yeras, when people have asked me what my walkup song would be, I’ve said the beat to Tipsy by J-Kwon (not the Shaboozey version)

Ben Clemens: because that clap beat start gets me hyped, and I’m pretty sure it would get the crowd going too

bosoxforlife: I spoke about this last week. Andruw Monasterio continues to look like a major league player. His AB’s are solid and absolutely deserves a spot over the unthinkably poor Story. It is shocking to see the Red Sox continue on this path.

Ben Clemens: yeah, I mean, this is the easiest thing to do for now. They’re just using him vL exclusively and giving the off days to Mayer more often than not, but that can change

Ben Clemens: it’s wild to me that Story keeps batting in the middle of the lineup, though

Marquayne: Who’s your favorite obscure cardinal from the early 90s? Gregg Jeffires, Milt Thompson, Rex Hudler, Rheal Cormier, Bob Tewksbury?

Ben Clemens: Brian Jordan, although maybe he’s not obscure enough to qualify

Ben Clemens: I also have a strong memory of making the trip to StL to see Ozzie, only it was the transition year and Royce Clayton got the start

Ben Clemens: so him too?

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is Mickey Moniak a good player, a Coors merchant, or a little bit of both?

Ben Clemens: yeah, both

Look At This Sotograph: Is it possible the Skubal surgery doesn’t hurt, or even increases his market value? If they are clearing “loose bodies” out of his elbow, that procedure assumedly won’t have to be done again for a while. If he comes back this season and pitches well, might he be in better shape for the next few years than if he hadn’t gotten the surgery?

Ben Clemens: mmmmm…. I mean, I’m not a doctor

Ben Clemens: So I’m very hesitant to take a strong stand here

Ben Clemens: But like…. no? That doesn’t sound right to me

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Good after noon Ben. Hey if you were a Power Ranger, what colour would you be and why? Baseball.

Ben Clemens: So, I didn’t have cable when Power Rangers were big, so my experience with them is mostly watching them at a friend’s house (hi Ian, you’re definitely not reading this). But uh…. Red Ranger, because red is my favorite color

Matthew: Orioles are giving Jackson Holliday looks at 3B now in his rehab, presumably because (1) Westburg is toast for 2026; and (2) their current roster construction has a bigger hole at 3B with Mayo’s poor play than 2B with Jeremiah Jackson/Blaze Alexander.  What do you think about Holliday trying 3B?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, do it

Ben Clemens: I mean, they could also just play Jackson at third

Ben Clemens: Westburg being likely down for the count is such a bummer to me

Ben Clemens: He’s one of “My Guys” because I’ve always been pretty aggressive with his trade value ranking, but man, what a bummer. He’s in the Lars Nootbaar category for me. The per-game numbers are awesome. Everyone would want a healthy Jordan Westburg. But also yeah, he just doesn’t play enough

Tim: About Braves injury luck… Acuna is hurt, Kim hasn’t played yet, Murphy missed the first month, Strider missed the first month, Waldrep and Schwellenbach are still out… seems like they’ve still been injured just they’ve gotten (unsustainably) good performances from all their depth pieces

Ben Clemens: fair counterpoint, but I guess I’d say that the Kim thing doesn’t really rate for me, nor the Waldrep/Schwellenbach things; we knew those before the year and still had them projected this way. Strider missing the first month, same deal. The Acuna thing is a great ponit

Ben Clemens: but at the end of the day, the Braves WAR leaders are Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, and MH2 on the hitter side. And Bryce Elder is doing a lot of work to hold up the pitchers, but aside from him, that’s just been Sale, who has been great

Ben Clemens: I guess I’d say that the Braves haven’t suffered overly from in-season injuries this year, perhaps?

Ben Clemens: but I take your point

J: Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, Josh Hader, Hunter Brown, Yordan Alvarez. If the over/under for the number of players in the above list still on the Astros roster on August 1st is 4.5, which are you taking?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmm. I think I’d take under but it’d be close

Ben Clemens: I don’t see Yordan or Hader getting moved

Ben Clemens: Pena, probably not either

Ben Clemens: Brown seems not THAT likely?

Ben Clemens: but I could easily see Paredes and Walker going, particularly if they decide they’re totally out of it

360 Skubal No Scope: It’s a telling generational divide that I assumed J-Kwon was a Korean rapper lol

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: I mean, you’re not wrong

Farhandrew Zaidman: How on earth did it take 20 years for MLB to start doing Pokemon content? The Gen 1 kids are now the salty veterans in the league.

Ben Clemens: 100%

Ben Clemens: Totally concur

Farhandrew Zaidman: Rate my hot take, please: Jackson Holliday is Gavin Lux 2.0. Really high scouting grades, but in reality doesn’t actually do anything at an above average level?

Ben Clemens: I consider this not hot

Ben Clemens: if I had a nickel for every skeptical/disbelieving/downright mean comment I’ve received about my consistent low rankings of Holliday in the trade value series, I could probably buy multiple slices of avocado toast in SF. That’s a lot of nickels

Ben Clemens: but meanwhile, I was giving these opinions to team people, and they were going ‘oh, yeah, seems about right, I’m not sure he’ll work out’

Ben Clemens: so I guess I’d say that perception is trending towards reality there

Ben Clemens: and honestly, I haven’t read every scouting report on him, but I read a ton of Eric’s and I feel like the potential weaknesses Eric identified are exactly what has happened

Ben Clemens: without outlier power numbers, his walks-based game felt like it might fall apart if he couldn’t do enough damage to keep pitchers honest, and that’s kinda what happened

Ben Clemens: aside from also really poor injury luck, of course

DJ: I heard a theory recently that ground ball pitchers often achieve better statistical results in the majors than during their trek through the minors due to improved defense behind them. Do you buy that?

Ben Clemens: I guess I’d say that ‘better results’ might be a stretch but that it’s unquestionably true that the defense is a lot better in the bigs

Ben Clemens: so I absolutely buy that you shoudl round up on guys who rely on balls in play to get their outs, so long as they’re grounders

chinarwhal: Mets fans are ready for revolt but what is the industry perception of whats going with stearns front office? Unlucky? Adjusting to big market dynamics? Dealing with too much ballast from past GMs (hence feeling the need to swap nimmo for another bad contract?)? Too early to judge?

Ben Clemens: if I knew, I’d be richer

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think that the industry preception is too soon to tell

Ben Clemens: but it’s baffling, and I bet that opinions vary widely

GBS42: I’m catching a Ben Clemens chat live?!?!? I didn’t take off work specifically for this, but since I’m off work: Who is your all-time favorite Cardinal?

Ben Clemens: oh, my all-time favorite cardinal is Ozzie, and it’s not close

Ben Clemens: I have a signed Ozzie card that was a prized childhood possession, a personalized signed Ozzie ball that my dad got me when we went to Cooperstown and he was signing

Ben Clemens: I used to watch “Ozzie, That’s a Winner”, a promotional video with his defensive highlights, and try to practice the moves in my basement

Ben Clemens: given that I’m a lefty, I was not good at those…. but I did it

Dale: Everyone questioned Turang’s selection to the World Baseball Classic. Do you think it’s safe to say that he was a good choice? Is it because he was from a small market that it took so long to get recognition?

Ben Clemens: did they?

Ben Clemens: I missed this

Ben Clemens: I don’t think there were a lot of better options at second unless Hoerner wanted to play

Ben Clemens: from what I remember of the coverage of the WBC, the announcers were just non-stop ravign about how great Turang is

Ben Clemens: and yeah, he’s raised leaguewide perception of his skill even more this year. But I just looked at our projections and we had Turang down as the third-best 2b in baseball before the season

Ben Clemens: behind Ketel Marte and Hoerner

Mom: I found an old Ozzie card of yours that I’ll bring when I come to visit!

Ben Clemens: and look at that

DJ Tofu: How much under water are the contracts of Devers, Adames, and Chapman? Say, if the Giants were to trade one of them and include money in the trade, how much money would be needed for them to get back a token non-prospect as return?

Ben Clemens: mmmmmm…. I don’t think that is likely to happen, and the math is pretty annoying to do and also very speculative. Every time that a star gets traded, everyone goes “wait why were they worth so much? my surplus value calcualtor says they’re far more underwater than that”

Ben Clemens: so I’ll agree with you that the contracts make tehse guys hard to move at hte moment, but I think the bigger issue is that they aren’t playing well, and I definitely don’t feel like trying to quantify how much of it is each

mike: have you watched Davis Martin at all this year? I find his arsenal incredibly aesthetically appealing. Doesn’t overpower anyone, none of his pitches individually seem that great, but he seems to locate them well/ get great tunnelling on the kick change and slider, and has just been dominant so far (4th in MLB in fWAR, second in ERA)

Ben Clemens: I have. And Michael Baumann just wrote a big article about him that I really liked

The Actor for Al Pacino: Tangent to the Bailey trade, but I can’t wait for a guy who is called “Tugboat” to be up in the big leagues, top-tier nickname

Ben Clemens: completely agree. It helps that he’s also a delightful pitcher to watch

Ben Clemens: he was in the WBC and it was amazing

Jon: The Battle of Waterloo, while militarily interesting, ultimately wasn’t all that important in the greater geopolitical sphere. That being said, are you the Duke of Wellington of Fangraphs?

Ben Clemens: I’m trying to think of eactly what that would say about my writing. I failed to come to a conclusion. So I’ll just say Dan would be the Duke of Wellington because he’s the historical reference guy

bosoxforlife: Too bad you were born after Stan The Man. Now there was an idol!

Ben Clemens: yeah, my dad has a lot of great 50s and 60s Cardinals stories

Ben Clemens: and he looooved Stan, naturally

Okra: The longer I follow baseball the more I’ve noticed a trend that lack of pull and/or lift seems to be a very common denominator for talented hitters who don’t reach their potential.  Do you agree and should teams hold guys in the minors longer if this needs to be addressed?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s contextual and case-by-case. But I think it generally speaks to an inability to dictate batted ball results, and that that matters

Ben Clemens: if you’re going to hit em where you’re pitched, you better be pretty good at that. I think that to some extent, guys who see their lift/pull numbers crater in the majors and then pitchers just flood the zone and knock the bat out of their hands are just demonstrating that they don’t really have a plan

Alec: Is there a tier of Fangraphs subscription I need to purchase to get the Tigers to stop needing to put players on the IL? (Skubal, Mize, Verlander, Melton, Jobe, Olson, Baez, Torres, Carpenter, Meadows, JUST to name a few). Semi-related question, do you think the winner of the ALC this year will necessarily need to be over .500?

Ben Clemens: haha, I do think they’ll be above .500, and I’ll see if that’s a new FanGraphs+++ tier

Ben Clemens: the Tigers are not having good luck, that is definitely true

Mr. Burrito: So, Bobby Cox got tossed from 162 games. I saw a few on TV and am sad I missed the rest. Is robo umping going to erase a lot of that opera? It’s dumb, but it’s pretty fun.

Ben Clemens: I think it’ll keep happening

Ben Clemens: but yeah…. he was a real outlier in that respect

Ben Clemens: I don’t think any modern manager is likely to top that

Farhandrew Zaidman: What’s your very early assessment of the DePodesta regime in Colorado? Julien, Johnston, Rumfield, and McCarthy have all looked like smart moves so far. They’ve also seemingly fixed Senzatela.

Ben Clemens: yeah, I’m kind of into it

Ben Clemens: I mean, I have no idea about the long-term results, but I think there’s been more low-hanging fruit picked up, more nuts and bolts moves that good teams like making

Ben Clemens: and that’s a big compliment

Hal: Do teams have different philosophies wrt letting players play through minor injuries? This is a Cal Raleigh question

Ben Clemens: absolutely, and it’s hard to nkow from the outside how it goes

mike: I know you’ve always been pretty in on Miguel Vargas, he’s been really impressive this year. Seems like he added just a bit of muscle/got his swing speed up while making elite swing decisions (99th percentile chase per savant), and it’s coalescing into a solidly above average hitter

Ben Clemens: yeah. I mean, that’s how I feel too. Another example of making the nuts and bolts moves – you should probably trade for the Miguel Vargases of the world, with good minor league numbers but a seeming inability to make it click in the majors, if you’re rebuilding

Farhandrew Zaidman: Would you be in favor of removing the 13 pitcher limit and just letting teams construct their rosters as they want?

Ben Clemens: I would not. I want fewer pitchers, not more. I really do not enjoy the reliever parade aspect of roster management, and making it easier for teams to do that doesn’t feel fun

Barn7: As a Cubs fan and 80s kid, I cannot deny you the choice of Ozzie. But do you know why I remember Vince Coleman being so much better than his stats now look in retrospect?

Ben Clemens: Because we misunderstood the value of speed then

Dan’l: Have the Cards shown enough to push in some financial chips this offseason, probably toward a SP?

Ben Clemens: I think that they’ve given themselves some flexibility as to their future path. But like, they don’t have to deide now! They get to see a whole season of results

Phil: Three Wilyer Abreu questions: 1. is his current thing where he’s obliterating his reputation as a platoon guy for real? 2. is an extension doable or is he almost too hot for one: 3. what are the long-term implications for the much-criticized Sox roster?

Ben Clemens:

1. probably somewhat, and eh, as we’ve discussed here, I am of the strong opinion that most hitters display a fairly consistent platoon split, and that individual guys being ‘great platoon hitters’ is generally overstated
2. doable at some point, if Boston decides that fits the roster
3. probably a Duran trade if they can? I dunno, how many times can you say ‘they’re gonna trade an outfielder’ without them doing it before it’s a boy who cried wolf situation?

Big Buckston: Thoughts on the Bailey trade from Cleveland’s perspective? I’ve seen a lot of discourse about the SF side but not much about Cleveland. I think the move is a little odd for them given they now have 3 glove-only catchers, and Naylor like Bailey was similarly due for a rebound at the plate

Ben Clemens: I think they just saw it as a big surplus value add. It’s hard to add stars, and if Bailey is an 80 wRC+ catcher, he’s a star

Ben Clemens: I do agree that it doesn’t seem to fit their roster all that well, and they’ll probably need to either move Naylor or just write him off for this year

Ben Clemens: but i think they just think it’s a good enough deal anyway

Ben Clemens: alright, I’m going to call it a day slightly early today because while I said I was going to be working on an article in parallel, I obviously didn’t do that and just chatted nonstop intead, so I have to get going on that

Ben Clemens: look forward to another installment of “Where are all these walks coming from?” tomorrow

Ben Clemens: and have a wonderful week