Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/22/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s just get started right away

Joshua: Can you complete the sentence so that it’s fair and realistic: Lane Thomas to the Guardians for….?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think there’s a realistic answer for this one. The Guardians need a little more juice than Thomas in their outfield, in my opinion. Adding Thomas would be like getting rid of a nickel and replacing it with some new-fashioned six cent coin

Ben Clemens: One of the big problems in Guardians team building — to the extent that there are problems, they’ve been really good on a low budget — is that they prioritize roughly average depth pieces, and then look up and too much of their team is made up of roughly average players

Ben Clemens: Thomas is a roughly average player, it’s just not how I’d go about improving them

Taylor Jungmann Truther: Which team is more surprising in how bad they are this year, STL or CHW?

Ben Clemens: I mean, the Cardinals would have been the answer if they continued to play really poorly, but I think it’s clearly the White Sox now. That said, I think I’d put the A’s ahead of either

Ben Clemens: IT’s SHOCKING how bad the A’s are

Jason: I know lineup construction doesn’t matter a whole lot, but how do I not get angry at Dusty for continuing to bat Abreu 4th every single day?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, just take a deep breath and remember that the Astros won the world series last year

LeftyCurve66: I know they’re still under .500 but should the Cardinals be a testament to media and sports writers to stop overreacting to a bad month when baseball is such a long season? I can’t believe all the ridiculous claims I was reading.

Ben Clemens: Ah yes, the media is what was wrong here 🙂

Ben Clemens: To be fair I think the media overdid things slightly

Ben Clemens: and that a lot of the team’s early slow start was the bad pitching that we all knew was there

Ben Clemens: But the real kerfuffle came from the Contreras benching/unbenching, and I think that the coverage of that was pretty fair

Ben Clemens: It was silly on its face, and obviously not going to last, just felt panicky

Ben Clemens: I think I’m probably with you overall that no one is ever as bad as they feel when they’re running bad

Ben Clemens: And people saying the Cardinals should tear down were going too far

Ben Clemens: But the most media pushback was around the Contreras stuff and that makes sense to me

jackson: do you think the diamondbacks have a shot at winning the nl west or securing a wild card?

Ben Clemens: Wild Card, sure

Ben Clemens: lot of banked wins and a lof of teams make the palyoffs

Ben Clemens: We have them at 50% to make the playoffs basically, for example

NashvilleSounds: Why don’t baseball stadiums build in more shade? I know you can’t do much for the players, but it would make the viewing experience way better. In summer day games, you always get one narrow strip of shade (due to an accident of stadium design) that’s 100% occupied and vast swathes of empty plastic that you can cook eggs on.

Ben Clemens: I think this has to do with unobstructed view lines

Ben Clemens: But I’m truly not sure

>this guy<: Ben, what is up with the Cubs? Their “quality” on the new FG power rankings is 3rd at 147 but they just dipped to 6 games under?

Ben Clemens: They’ve been playing way worse than their underlying statistics, and the quality thing is based on underlying statistics

Ben Clemens: That said! I don’t think that they do a very good job of bullpen management

Ben Clemens: I feel like the wrong relievers are coming in at the wrong spots

Ben Clemens: Not enough to justify this amount of underperformance, but I’m not shocked that they’re doing worse than run differential would suggest. They lead the league in times I’ve tuned into their games and gone “huh he’s coming in?”

v2micca: If the A’s get their stadium deal in Las Vegas, and John Fisher still refuses to spend above $60 million on player salary, would there actually be any consequences?

Ben Clemens: No, of course not

Ben Clemens: The main consequences he’s actually faced so far have been an unending string of wealth

Bob: Alec Bohms has a 48% ground rate and 38% flyball rate. His GB/FB ratio is 1.24. Would he be considered a neutral batter of a flyball batter? Thank u

Ben Clemens: Yeah pretty close to neutral. The league as a whole this year has a 1.15 GB/FB ratio and 42.6/37.2 gb and fb rates respectively

Ben Clemens: Anything between 1 and 1.5 feels ‘neutral’ to me

v2micca: Vaughn Grissom appears to be blocked at the SS position for the foreseeable future.  Why aren’t the Braves at least entertaining the possibility of playing him in the outfield?  Are they worried it would hurt his trade value?

Ben Clemens: Legitimately no clue what their plan is here

Ben Clemens: Although I really was surprised they thought he could handle shortstop. I was always kind of skeptical

ELDC: Do the Reds call me up this homestand (ending 5/25) or the following homestand (beginning 6/2)?

Ben Clemens: Great question. I have no inside information whatsoever here, I don’t even think I’ve ever spoken to someone in the Reds organization now that I’m thinking about it

Ben Clemens: I’d I think they should call him up for a homestand, though, I think that would be very cool. I would guess that they’ll want to make sure he doesn’t get enough service days to qualify for a full year, but they’re already past that

Ben Clemens: Also, there’s some chance they do the Rays/Wander Franco thing and hold him down long enough that he doesn’t even qualify for Super 2

Ben Clemens: Super 2 was 2.128 this year, but let’s say it’s more like 2.120 to be conservative. That would mean that if they want to minimize how much credit he gets monetarily for playing in the majors, they’d have to wait until the second week of June or so

Ben Clemens: So if he’s mysteriously ready on June 15, well, you can guess why

Guest: I am convinced the article on this site titled “It Is Time for Mike Trout To Be Less Patient” is what altered Trout’s swing decisions in the same way the tweet about his defense made him improve it. So I kindly ask for you (or another writer) to do what is right and fix him

Ben Clemens: 🙂

Wrights_Back: If pitching matchups determine expected win probability – eg.if peak Sandy Koufax faced a replacement level pitcher, the odds of the Dodgers winning would be way higher than if he faced the other team’s Ace (no matter how less acelike he was than Koufax), then why don’t managers spend more time trying to get the best matchups?    Is ‘regular rest’ a demonstrably better strategy.during the regular season?   
With the advent of more 6 man starting rotations, the ability to find advantageous permutations must be greater, no?   

(This wasn’t meant to sound rhetorical).

Ben Clemens: What you’re missing here is that the other team’s ace is still gonna pitch, and their replacement level guy is still going to pitch too

Ben Clemens: There’s a tiny difference, but it’s not huge

Ben Clemens: So we can use a generic log5 approximation to come up with an answer

Ben Clemens: Let’s say that Koufax is a .600 true talent pitcher, the Dodgers’ next dude is a .525 pitcher, the other team’s ace checks in at .550, and their replacement level guy is .425

Ben Clemens: That means that using this formula: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5

Ben Clemens: Koufax would be .550 against their ace, and .670 against their scrub

Ben Clemens: Meanwhile the second-best pitcher (Don Drysdale, let’s say) is .475 against the other team’s ace and .600 against their scrub

Ben Clemens: So if you go Koufax/Ace and Drysdale/scrub, you expect to win 1.15 games

Ben Clemens: out of the two

Ben Clemens: not bad!

Ben Clemens: and if you go Koufax/scrub and Drysdale/ace, you expect to win 1.145 games

Ben Clemens: huh, basically the same

Ben Clemens: hence, why no one focuses too much on the permuations. Specific matchups — we want our lefty to miss the Cardinals because they’re all righties — are way more important

The guy who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch? Also, Seiya just needed a week, feeling better on him?

Ben Clemens: Probably gonna order a chicken sandwich from a place nearby called Souvla that does nice greek food

Ben Clemens: And yeah, I was too soon!

Chip: Thoughts on cascadia? Excited about the new expansion?

Ben Clemens: I’ve never played, it’s really pretty though so I’d like to

Joe: Ben, I have been thinking lately about the link between analytics and things we generally think of as outside of the purview of real critical “analysis”. A very basic version of this is mental health struggles, or injury. But outside of that, there’s an entire world of forces that lead players to have x or y outcomes. So if we say something like “Juan Soto has been way more aggressive lately”, on fg that often assumes that Juan Soto is just behaving as a purely rational actor who knows this is the best way forward for him. But I think much more often players are just experiencing whims and push / pull factors that break out from the analytic realm and into the human realm. Like, “Juan Soto has finally settled in to his new role, which came with a ton of pressure”. I think you do a pretty good job of trying to account for it, but I think in general it’s something I see lacking in the analytic writing world. There seems to be a sort of defensiveness about analytics that I think is somewhat of an over correction

Joe: (cont) for explaining the world. Like both things can be true, and sometimes saying “Juan Soto is more aggressive lately”, and “Juan Soto is finally comfortable,” actually line up perfectly. Not really a question, but curious to hear your thoughts on this dynamic

Ben Clemens: I thought this was a really interesting comment, so I’m gonna throw it up here and then think through it

Ben Clemens: I completely agree that the perception that everyone is a rational actor is hard to tease out from the way that nerdy analytical articles often go

Ben Clemens: I also think it’s clear that players aren’t perfectly rational actors. They’re humans! Behavioral economics exists for a reason – even if you’re trying really hard to be rational it’s tough to be

Ben Clemens: It’s a difficult thing to write about, so I struggle with it and I know others do too

Ben Clemens: a little doubt is usually good

Hold-en Caulfield: Holds and Saves league (two different categories). With so many unexpected guys throwing up 2.20 ERAs, striking out the world, and earning 20 holds with good ratios, is it even worth drafting top guys like Andres Muñoz, or just scrape the wire in April to assemble your bullpen?

Ben Clemens: I’m a waiver wire scraping guy

Ben Clemens: but I’m also probably one of the most diligent observers of relievers in the world, and not very good at fantasy despite that

Ben Clemens: so maybe take my advice with a grain of salt

Guest: David Peterson should be a ____ rotation starter (ace, 2, 3, 4, 5?) and is very unlucky.  Or N/A.  Same Q for Byran Bello

Ben Clemens: 4, 3 respectively

bosoxforlife: The Mets have won 5 straight one-run games since the miracle game last Wednesday in which  Alvarez and Alonso each hit 3-run HR’s with 2 outs in the 9th and 10th. With that win they are a team reborn. I have seldom, read never, seen a happier group  than all those associated with the Mets after a single mid-season game.

Ben Clemens: That game was absurd, and the Mets are really fun to watch right now. They’ve always been a boom/bust team which makes them fun to watch and also hard to look away from

jack suwinskis mom: Rank my son’s ROS between  how bad as he has been in May (1 ⭐️) to how good as he was in April (10 ⭐️)

Ben Clemens: Oof, hi Mrs. Suwinski, and let’s say 6 stars

Cito’s Mustache: The new Pitch Modelling data here is great. However, when the two models disagree with each other on a player, how should one interpret that? What sort of additional context might help advance the analysis when Bot and Stuff+ are at odds?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna be honest with you: they’re black boxes and that’s kind of the point

Ben Clemens: you should interpret it as ‘more investigation required’ I’d say

Tina: Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty reunion coming?

Ben Clemens: It’s trending that way imo

Ben Clemens: Giolito looks rejuvenated this year

Ben Clemens: The White Sox, meanwhile, look decidedly un-juvenated. De-juvenated?

Ben Clemens: And the Cardinals could really use pitching, particularly someone who can get in the odd seven-inning start to save the bullpen from the rest of the rotation

Guest: When (or if, really) Cleveland gets McKenzie and Civale back, whose starting job is at risk? Real shot Bibee or Allen get sent back down?

Ben Clemens: I think they might go 6-man rotation for a bit, which would make sense given injury risks. You could convince me that Allen has a role as a reliever in the short run, I don’t really see Bibee that way

Ben Clemens: So Hunter Gaddis is probably not going to be up for long, of course, and then I bet they go 6-man for a bit

Ben Clemens: But what about Quantrill? He’s been a lot worse than Allen and Bibee

Ben Clemens: And he’s somehow the fifth-highest paid player on the team at 5.5 million

Ben Clemens: whoops, sixth-highest, missed Zunino

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t be shocked if they tried to trade him for, like, 17 depth pieces from a team who needs a starter

JM: I’ve been reading some relatively old baseball books on strategy: “Men at Work”, “Pure Baseball” etc. What strikes to me is how obsessed managers used to be about all kinds of hit-and-run situations, pitchouts, stealing 2nd/3rd/home, squeeze plays etc etc.

Is this purely a small-ball era phenomenon, or do managers still think like this?

Ben Clemens: I think that a lot of that has been replaced by pitching matchups and by where exactly they should deploy each of their relievers to maximize their skills

Ben Clemens: But generally speaking, managers put an outsize amount of time into thinking about small things like that because it’s really hard for them to impact the outcome of the game in any other way

simba: Feels like it’s been awhile since we’ve have a great first baseman arrive on the scene (Alonso or Olson are the most recent in my mind). Who do you think is next? Manzardo, Mervis, Casas, Torkelson or someone else?

Ben Clemens: Iiiiinteresting

Ben Clemens: Isn’t it just Vinny P??

Ben Clemens: Let me rephrase: I sure hope it’s him

Moose: What are the odds of Schmitt and Bailey sticking around for the rest of the season for the Giants?

Ben Clemens: Schmitt I’d say pretty good

Ben Clemens: Bailey, I’m very skeptical. They need to keep Sabol on the active roster to avoid losing him and it’d be weird to not have Bart and Perez in the lineup when they’re back to being healthy

Ben Clemens: Er, not in the lineup every day or anything, but on the roster

Ben Clemens: Bailey would really have to hit the cover off the ball to stay up, I think

Ben Clemens: Also I went to his debut this weekend and it was very cool, the Giants fans gave him multiple ovations

Despairing Twins Fan: Is there any explanation to the sheer ineptitude of the Twins with the bases loaded? They are currently 5 for 43 with no extra base hits (for an OPS of .289). I don’t have the stats for previous years, but this feels like it has been going on for a while. Is this just strange statistical noise? Are the hitters in their heads?

Ben Clemens: My guess is noise but maybe I’ll look into it, seems interesting

RTJ: Speaking of Cardinals player management, what do you think of them calling up Liberatore and then putting him into the bullpen?

Ben Clemens: Truly don’t understand

Ben Clemens: He looked awesome in his start, I think it’s likely that he’s one of their top 2 or 3 startesr

Ben Clemens: I think the problem boils down to this: he’s not gonna bump freaking Adam Wainwright, a living legend

Ben Clemens: Flaherty is really good when he’s right and I think the Cardinals are right to chase that possibility even when he’s going badly

Ben Clemens: Montgomery is the team’s best starter

Ben Clemens: So that just leaves Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas as guys who could get knocked out of the rotation, and they’re each making a bundle of money this year in addition to being around past 2023

Ben Clemens: So I guess I’d say I do understand, but it’s a problem of their own making and it would behoove them to find something to do about it

Acuna: Been seeing a lot of talk about Ronald Acuna’s defense and “effort”.  My question is, does it matter when he hits and runs the bases as well as he does?

Ben Clemens: I think calling it a lack of effort is just lazy

Ben Clemens: I do think he’s not a great instinctual defender, though

Ben Clemens: He’s always done poorly relative to his top speed, he just does not seem to get good reads out there

Ben Clemens: But yeah, it does not matter when he’s such a good hitter

Cubs pen: Brutal stretch for us, as you noted. We’re at the point where Alzolay and Leiter are the only 2 reliable guys and they’ve both blown a game in the last few days. Boxberger and Fulmer both look like busts. Time to give Estrada a real role and call up Bailey Horn?

>this guy<: follow up to my cubs question: if the bullpen usage is puzzling, is it because the pitchers are not so great or are mistakes being made?

Ben Clemens: The Cubs bullpen, woof

Ben Clemens: and yeah… I think it’s both?

Rick: What do you make of Austin Riley’s slow start? I’ve been offered Matt Chapman and Wander Franco for Riley? Take it?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, I’d take it, I’m really high on Wander

Ben Clemens: and not that I’m down on Riley, but I don’t think he’s actually an MVP candidate

Ben Clemens: I think he’s more a solid all star

Ben Clemens: Chapman has cooled off recently but his ROS projections aren’t THAT much worse than Riley’s

Chilly: M Harris bb up Ks down.  Is the slump all babip, maybe still dealing w back issues?   What’s ur take

Ben Clemens: it’s babip and hard contact, but more on the babip/unluckiness side of things. I’m definitely monitoring the back thing, but I think that despite an absolutely abysmal batting line, Braves fans should be encouraged by the sustainable/non-volatile stuff Harris is doing to get better

Ben Clemens: He’s making better swing decisions, and I think that will pay dividends in the long run

RTJ: If you were a league-average #3 starter on a league-average team, which team are you most afraid of facing right now? Can it possibly be the Rangers and their league-leading run-scored stats?

Ben Clemens: Hmmmm

Ben Clemens: I mean, they’re up there

Ben Clemens: Probably the Rays for me

Ben Clemens: And if you’re a lefty, the Cardinals, like, goodness gracious, they have a bad record this year and they’re still the third-best batting team in baseball

JWR: #freeNolanJones.  I know that Jones failed in his first cup of MLB coffee but he has been the most productive hitter in the minors over the last two years and he has nothing left to prove in MILB.  Meanwhile, the Rockies continue to play Profar, Moustakas, and Grichuk, all of whom have proven they are not the future.  Can you defend the Rockies for the indefensible?

Ben Clemens: I cannot

marginal utility player: weird to say this after he just pitched really well against the Mets for 8 innings, but I’m concerned about Shane Bieber. His ERA is nice, but his strikeouts have plummeted once again and he’s allowing incredibly hard contact. His xERA has swelled to 4.92

Thoughts on the future for the Guardians ace?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m a bit worried

Ben Clemens: I don’t buy into the xERA completely, but it’s hard to be an elite pitcher these days with a 17.8% strikeout rate

Ben Clemens: I’m willing to accept that he’s saving his best stuff for when there are runners on base, but I dunno, there’s a limit to that

Ben Clemens: He just keeps getting fewer and fewer swinging strikes, he’s not inducing as many chases, and he’s already doing the thing I would have suggested, which is throwing more cutters

Ben Clemens: I’m worried, is the point. I think you have to hope that his stuff recovers

Michael: Apologies if I missed it – but did you ever talk about why you picked the Orioles to win the division this year? How are you feeling about that now? Thanks!

Ben Clemens: I don’t think I did anywhere, but I can walk through the high points

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they were the most likely team to win the ALE, and I still don’t. But I thought they were being very underrated by the general pundit class, and our predictions are a great place to make a point

Ben Clemens: I tend to favor making predictions that I feel the market most undervalues, rather than the ones that are most likely to be true

Ben Clemens: Sometimes that’s the same thing, like I was one of only a few people to pick the Dodgers to win the West. But with the O’s, I thought they were basically neck-and-neck with the Red Sox, and wouldn’t need many positive surprises to trade blows with the other three teams

Ben Clemens: They just have a lot of prospect juice, they’ve demonstrated a real ability to discover and develop good relief arms, and you could see a situation where if their pitching clicked they’d be really good

Ben Clemens: Did I actually think they were the most likely team to win the division? No way

Ben Clemens: But I thought they were a lot closer to the Jays than people were giving them credit for

The Real Ben Clemens: Is Corbin Burnes fixed

Ben Clemens: Boy, I’d wait a tiny bit before saying that, but he changed his delivery back to what he was doing last year, and it didn’t affect his velocity at all

Ben Clemens: I’m not ready to declare him fixed but I’m encouraged that he’s making some changes

Ben Clemens: Amusingly the biggest change he made is to just start throwing the ball middle middle and seeing what hapens

Ben Clemens: His most recent start had his highest Heart% by far this year

Ben Clemens: Highest zone rate as well, obviously

Ben Clemens: The stuff plays, I like his plan of just letting it eat (maybe it’ll need some adjustments, though, so let’s keep watching)

under the gunnar: I have an open roster spot, should I stash Jordan Westburg?

Ben Clemens: I mean… why not?

John: Black Boxes?

Ben Clemens: Yeah as in, the input-to-output process is opaque. You know that they take inputs, and they spit you out an answer, but what inputs lead to what answer isn’t clear

Ben Clemens: Thus, they’re much harder to reverse engineer

Zaphod: Too soon to start beating the “Justin Steele for Cy Young” drum?

Ben Clemens: Probably a little, but Justin Steele for Cy Young votes is a very reasonable drum, one that more people should be banging

Bob: Are there any cases to be made for a batter to emerge, never on a top 100 prospect list, to have a long term good career?  Last year Stephen Kwan and Jake McCarthy seemed to break that mold but they have regressed a great deal so far this year.  I can’t think of a batter that has had a good long term career that wasn’t on a top 100 prospect list at some point.  Pitchers seem to emerge (i.e. Spencer Strider) but not batters.  And if not what does that mean for the long term prognosis of guys like James Outman and Matt Mervis?

Ben Clemens: Well Mookie Betts for one

Ben Clemens: but yeah, I’ll say two things: it’s a lot easier to evaluate hitters in my opinion

Ben Clemens: There’s a reason I do a hitters prediction piece and not a pitchers one

Ben Clemens: Second, just because it hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t. I’d say that pedigree is important, but evaluating what people are currently doing is just as important, probably more so

5 Run Homer: Re: great young first basemen; Vladdy Jr! I know he came up as a 3B but he didn’t really take off until he moved to 1B

Ben Clemens: Oh great call

Ben Clemens: Yeah I just flat out missed on that one

marginal utility player: has hosmer played his last MLB game?

Ben Clemens: Nah, there’s always some team who will pay for scoops and barrels (note: not barrels the way we think about them, just well-struck balls aimed 3 feet in front of the plate)

Giant Gonzalez: With Whitlock coming off the IR this week, does Kluber get DFA’d after his next start? I know he managed to lower his ERA yesterday to 6.26 but that’s only because 1 of his 5 runs were earned, because he committed the error to allow the other 4 runs to score. Different regime but I remember Smoltz’s run in Boston going about as well and lasting about 8 starts

Ben Clemens: I think it’s heading that way. The Sox might try to perform a bit of roster gymnastics to save the option of keeping him in case someone else gets hurt, but at this point it’s really a cost/benefit kinda deal where the reasons not to cut him are that it constrains future decision making

Ben Clemens: Not that he’s one of the best five starters right now on the merits

Farhandrew Zaidman: Hi Ben! Does the Dodgers getting Stone and Miller a half season of reps (projecting ahead based on injuries) end up being a blessing in disguise?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think it’ll pay off for them

Guest: When the Reds had McClain down in Louisville with EDLC and CES, would it have been outrageous to say that the Reds (organization’s) 3 best hitters were on the same team, and it wasn’t the Reds?

Ben Clemens: Outrageous? I don’t know if i’d go that far. But I think it’d be wrong

Ben Clemens: I have Jonathan India #2 after EDLC

Wrigley: Can Christopher Morel sustain a 259 wRC+ with a K rate north of 35%?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. no

Ben Clemens: But he can be good while striking out a lot

Braves Fan: How would you rank Naylor, Kiriloff, Nimmo, and Suzuki RoS

Ben Clemens: I think I’d go Nimmo/Suzuki/Kirilloff/Naylor

Ben Clemens: but I’ve always been the low man on Naylor, and I might be too low on Kirilloff

Ben Clemens: the only thing I’m confident in there is Nimmo first, I think

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, and Josh Lowe are all within 0.3 fWAR of each other right now (1.9-2.2, ranks 4-18 in all of MLB for position players). What will things look like at the end of the season?

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing Wander and Randy will end the year as the top two in some order, probably Wander ahead

Ben Clemens: I think that all of them will deliver All Star numbers in the long run, though

Frustrated Guardians Fan: Would Andres Gimenez benefit from being sent down? He’s had an incredibly frustrating season

Ben Clemens: Hmmmm… I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: but I do not know him personally

Ben Clemens: He could definitely use a reset, but doing it via a demotion after a big extension feels like it might not go over so well

Dan: Trea Turner or Wander Franco ROS?

Ben Clemens: Wander!

Erich: Could LaMonte Wade put up a season similar to 2021 Belt on the platoon this year?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, good comp imo

Retro: Do you think the new limits on options are having a significant impact on how teams manage their staffs? The intent was to cut down on stuff like having a reliever wear a blowout loss and then be immediately sent down for a fresh arm–is it working?

Ben Clemens: I think it is working, but only on the margin

Farhandrew Zaidman: To my completely uninformed brain, seems like the obvious correction to the rash of pitching arm injuries (allegedly from the pitch clock) is to disincentive 100% effort, 100% of the time. But are teams more willing to churn burn through waivers than to give that a shot?

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s actually two-fold

Ben Clemens: If you’re a pitcher, going max effort is a dominant strategy

Ben Clemens: you might blow out, but you also might make millions of dollars

Ben Clemens: If you’re in the extremely wide middle class of guys who have major league stuff and fringe major league pitchability, I can’t imagine toning it down, even if your team told you to

Ben Clemens: You tone it down, the other back of the bullpen guy doesn’t, and then who do you think gets DFA’ed when the team needs another pitcher?

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Guest: Gunnar has been brutal for me this year, should I drop him for McLain? Or keep him on my bench and hope for the best?

Ben Clemens: I’d keep Gunnar for track record reasons

Ben Clemens: It’d be one thing if McLain had come up absolutely blasting and Gunnar was a complete bum

NobleHelium: Is Oswaldo Cabrera ever going to get back up to roughly league average hitting or is he the next Tyler Wade at this point?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s better than that but I’m definitely losing confidence in that view slowly

Ben Clemens: Basically I like his power enough more that I don’t think he falls into the Wade trap of not having any offensive carrying tools

Clem Benens: Dansby has been the best FA SS so far. He was also signed for the least $ of the 4. Nobody knows anything!

Ben Clemens: Baseball is so hard

Bob: Mooke Betts was ranked Ranked Baseball America’s #75 prospect in 2014

Ben Clemens: We had Kwan in our top 100 last year

Ben Clemens: I think both still count as mostly under the radar types

Ben Clemens: But yeah, point taken

Ben Clemens: Also, the proliferation of prospect lists means that fewer and fewer players will make it to the bigs without being on top 100 lists

JWR: Do you know if rest of season (ROS) projections on fangraphs are simply prorated estimates of the pre-season projections or are the various projection systems (i.e., ZIPS, Steamer, etc.) updated throughout the season?

Ben Clemens: ZiPS and Steamer are both updated in-season

Ben Clemens: I know for ZiPS at least, Dan runs a different in-season model than the full ZiPS model

Scrapper: My crazy idea for Ohtani is letting him be a full time right fielder, where he would most likely be a Gold Glover, and letting him pitch 1-2 times/week as a high leverage reliever.  Am I crazy?

Ben Clemens: I thought this kind of idea was interesting before he debuted stateside

Ben Clemens: At this point, I don’t think you can justify it. He’s just too good as a starter

Nick: Y or N? Alvarez and Baty will hit a combined 60HR this year,

Nick: Baty or Alvarez to win NL ROY?

Ben Clemens: Haha two versions of the same question from the same chatter, who would have guessed it?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say no to ROY, I think Outman is way out in front at the moment, and no to 60 combined bombs, just b/c dthat’s a ton

Ben Clemens: Also it’s almost June and they ahve a combined 9

Ben Clemens: But I think they’re both great

JWR: In two years, Bryce Harper will be (a) at 1b, at RF, or (c) DHing?

Ben Clemens: b)

Choo Choo: Re: Bieber. Does this years deadline strike you as a good time for CLE to sell high (as they’ve done with numerous starters before)? Seems like they could really use some new young bats on offense and many contenders are looking for SPs

Trade Szn?: Whats your assessment of the trade market for Bieber ?

Ben Clemens: This is very interesting

Ben Clemens: I think it makes sense for Cleveland generally, they do like to trade starters

Ben Clemens: But again: they trade for volume

Ben Clemens: They always do

Ben Clemens: That’s just their m.o. They want your 11th through 15th prospects, not #4

Ben Clemens: And I don’t think that makes sense here. Like what, some contending team that wants Shane Bieber also just has some starting outfielders to spare?

Ben Clemens: Maybe they will trade with the DBacks and try to buy low on Alek Thomas or something? But it’s just an awkward fit

Ben Clemens: Their trades generally focus on shoring up the future rather than going all in on the present

Scrapper: If the Cubs are out of the race and cannot sign Belllinger (he is a Boras client), could the Cubs get a top 100 prospect for him at the trade deadline.  I’d hate to lose him but the Cubs season may be spinning out of control and Bellinger only signed a one year deal.

Ben Clemens: I do not think they could get that kind of return

Ben Clemens: He’s been good, no doubt, but he’s a rental with recent history of being kinda awful, and he’s outperforming his peripheral stats by a ton

Ben Clemens: Maybe by the end of the year I’ll change my tune, but that just seems like a lot to get back for a guy who hasn’t even been THAT great this year and has not been good for years before now

bosoxforlife: Henderson and Rodriguez are not exactly lighting it up this year but The Orioles still have Holliday, maybe the best prospect now, Mayo, Westburg, Kierstad and Cowser waiting. All of them are tearing up their respective leagues.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, this is what I mean by prospect juice. They just have so many options on the prospect front that some of them will probably pop

Romorr: I know you aren’t the prospect guy here at FGs, but has Jackson Holliday caught your eye at all? Doing some impressive things !

Ben Clemens: I mean, yes?

Ben Clemens: He’s presumably at least a top 5 prospect

Farhandrew Zaidman: Re Underrated Prospects: JD Martinez probably qualifies as a “solid MLB career with little prospect pedigree” guy. Justin Turner too.

Ben Clemens: Oh great calls

Ben Clemens: Joey Bats

Ben Clemens: the swing change guys all fit I think

Ben Clemens: I guess Bautista was more heralded at first

Jk: Is Sandy cooked? Has a 5.05 era and is 1-5.

Ben Clemens: Haha, no

Ben Clemens: But I think it’s reasonable to think that 2022 represents him at his best

Ben Clemens: Also, if I’m Alcantara, I’m definitely frustrated at the team official who came up with the ‘what if everyone playing defense behind sandy was slightly underqualified for their position’ plan

Ben Clemens: The Marlins had the second-best infield defense in baseball per OAA last year

Ben Clemens: They’re 21st this year, Sandy is a groundball pitcher

Ben Clemens: Doesn’t sooooooound great

Ben Clemens: Basically, ‘Swap Miguel Rojas for Luis Arraez’ is an awesome plan on offense

Ben Clemens: But not as good defensively!

Marsh: On April 16th, Noah Davis, P,  of the Rockies narrowly avoided a comebacker. It was hit straight at his head, but he turned around and ducked. The ball hit the *edge of his hat* on the back of his head and knocked his hat off without actually hitting him in the head.

It’s the most incredibly, as in unbelievable, thing I’ve ever seen on a baseball field, and I think about it all the time. How was this not the Main Story of Baseball?

Ben Clemens: It was really wild

Ben Clemens: I totally agree with you

Ben Clemens: I mean, I’ve seen some unbelievable things. But I’m surprised it didn’t get more play

Rex Manning Day: Judge’s barrel %, hard hit %, average EV, LD%, and FB% are all higher than last year. He’s got a higher K%, but he’s swinging less at outside pitches and more in-zone pitches. He’s got a dang .757 xSLG. I guess my question is, lol?

Ben Clemens: Turns out he’s good!

Guest: How deep will the Cleveland system be after their big starters debut this season (Bibee, Allen, Williams)? Do they still have prospect capital to make a move for a RF or C?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s still reasonably deep, but like, they’re not doing it!

Ben Clemens: Guardians fans always think they will cash in their chips and consolidate

Ben Clemens: and they never, ever, ever do

Ben Clemens: The reason that they build sustainably competitive teams is because they are good at identifying depth pieces and trade for volume

Ben Clemens: Eventually I’ll be wrong predicting them to always trade for bulk rather than consolidate

Ben Clemens: But I’ve been predicting this for three years and haven’t been wrong yet

Appa Yip Yip: Is time in the midst of its inevitable victory over George Springer, or is there something else going on?

Ben Clemens: Probably a bit of both, I’d be worried that he’s playing slightly hurt

Guest: What do you think about Richard Bleier’s R/L splits switching this drastically so far this year? Could still be small sample size, but it’s strange to see both have changes this drastic at the same time.

Ben Clemens: I find it completely uncompelling, to be honest

Ben Clemens: He’s faced 31 lefties

Ben Clemens: They’re running a .391 babip against him

Ben Clemens: I”m certainly worried that he’s bad now, though

Ben Clemens: he seems like he might be bad now

Braves Fan: I have Walker to fill in at 1B, would you trade Vlad straight up for Judge?

Ben Clemens: Yeah

Ben Clemens: Injury risk and all, but Walker is a nice fill in

KingBartolo: does edward cabrera carry any reliever risk? really hoping he figures out his command this year

Ben Clemens: Yeah, 100%

Ben Clemens: I also hope he figures out his command, but this is a long time to not be able to throw strikes

Ben Clemens: At some point, the Marlins won’t be able to justify running him out there as a starter

Ben Clemens: He could fix it, of course

Ben Clemens: But if you’re doing some kind of probabilistic estimation of his relief risk, well it’s a lot higher after 40 innings of a 16% walk rate and 5 ERA than it was before

JWR: I previously but erroneously said that Nolan Jones had been the most productive player in the minors over the last two years when I meant to say over the last two months…but either way you (correctly) answered the question–that the Rockies decision to hold him down is dumbfounding.  Thanks for answering.

Ben Clemens: Whoops, I missed that too

Ben Clemens: But yeah…. doesn’t seem to make any sense but holding the Rockies to that standard also doesn’t seem to make any sense

Ben Clemens: if you only evaluated Rockies moves on the on-field merits, you’d be scratching your head a lot

homana homana: please thank mr baumann for his remarkably effective reverse jinx on michael kopech (8IP, 1H erased on GIDP, 0R, 0BB, 10K, 98pi)

America: Better National Anthem, Marvin Gaye 1983 NBA All-Star Game or Whitney Houston 1991 Super Bowl?

Ben Clemens: Whitney for me, but the Marvin Gaye one was before I was born

TomBruno23: How about Max Muncy’s postgame interview yesterday?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, I generally  make it a point not to read too much into baseball players saying things after losing, but give me a break

Ben Clemens: Catchers bullying the umpire into bad calls?

Ben Clemens: c’mon man

Ben Clemens: Muncy is a noted umpire bully, too!

Ben Clemens: I checked out umpire scorecards and naturally, there was no net bias in the series

Ben Clemens: Maybe he just needed to vent to get the loss out of his system, but there’s pretty clearly nothing there on the merits

Ben Clemens: and if there were, maybe more catchers should take up bullying (they shoudln’t, it doesn’t work)

Appa Yip Yip: Speaking of umps, do you favour a completely automated zone, or the challenge system they’re using in AAA?

Ben Clemens: Challenge system by a mile

Ben Clemens: It’s so fun in tennis

Ben Clemens: and I think that it fits better with how baseball works

Ben Clemens: Lightning round time before I leave

Farhandrew Zaidman: Isn’t it crazy that the offensive environment for the PCL is wild and we just…accept that running a 5.00 ERA in AAA is actually good down there?

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s crazy, I go to the odd PCL game b/c I live in the area and I have to remind myself of that every time

bosoxforlife: A comment on prospects. Mookie Betts was the best player on the field when I watched him at Greenville, Salem, Portland and Pawtucket but the scouts just couldn’t get their minds around the fact that this little guy could be sooooo good and ignored his obvious power at the lower levels. Never have I seen the anti-small guy bias so apparent.

Ben Clemens: Carson Cistulli agrees with you

Farhandrew Zaidman: Turns out Dustin May was pitching through soreness during his rehab…which begs the question….why was he pitching through soreness in rehab?? lol.

Ben Clemens: Because baseball players are stubborn types

Guest: is mitch keller an ace now?

Ben Clemens: Nah, but I’m hopeful that he’s good for real now

Guest: Sterlin Thompson top 50 prospect by the ASB?

Ben Clemens: Probably not a great sign for me that I”ve never heard of him

Ben Clemens: but uh…. pass

Guest: I have CES stashed at the moment, but with Votto starting to ramp up, should I drop him for a bat like Baty, Suzuki, Fletcher, or Wade Jr?

Ben Clemens: yeah those are good bats to get to pick up over a prospect who will maybe debut this year

Ben Clemens: must be a very shallow league, I’d stuill do it

TomBruno23: Nolan Gorman?

Ben Clemens: Yes

bosoxforlife: Cruz or De La Cruz, who do you think turns into the better SS?

Ben Clemens: DLC

Kevin: What do you imagine leading edge teams might do to take advantage of artificial intelligence capabilities?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, something with development though

Retro: Any sense of why the Braves prefer to keep trying the bullpen game thing (which isn’t going well), instead of giving Dodd or Soroka a chance to join the rotation? Is the option limit making itself felt in Dodd’s case?

Ben Clemens: Yeah seems reasonable

Sonny: The all-time record for HRs hit by a pitcher is 38, with rule changes it seems like Ohtani is the only thing standing between Wes Ferrell and the one true unbreakable sports record.

Ben Clemens: Agreed

Ben Clemens: And on that note, thank you for chatting with me today, everyone, and I’m sorry if I didn’t get to your question

Ben Clemens: There were an absolute ton of good ones today and I couldn’t hit them all

Ben Clemens: Have a great week. I’ll be back on some non-Monday day next week b/c of Memorial Day

Ben Clemens: Ooh, and I’m going to Wrigley for the first time this week with my dad (also his first time somehow despite his growing up in STL)

Ben Clemens: Gonna be awesome, can’t wait to talk about it