Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/24/21

May 24, 2021

2:01	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone

2:01	Ben Clemens: Let’s talk about baseball!

2:01	Nick: How much do you think the new baseball is affecting the overall decline in battering average / increase in strikes? It just seems noticeably worse than last year. I’m having trouble watching games and I don’t normally mind watching games most

2:01	Nick: Oops didn’t finish. I don’t normally mind watching games most people would think are boring.

2:01	Ben Clemens: Hard for me to say exactly how much the new ball is affecting strikeouts specifically, but anecdotally it’s not great!

2:01	Ben Clemens: With less threat of home runs, uh

2:02	Ben Clemens: Might as well just go after them

2:02	David: Do you think the worst player in MLB today would have been an All Star caliber player a century ago?

2:02	Ben Clemens: Well, kind of depends on how this works

2:02	Ben Clemens: Are they sent back exactly as they are right onw?

2:02	Ben Clemens: If so, I think so. Athletes are just so big and strong these days

2:03	Ben Clemens: I’m not saying they’d have the best pitch recognition, or that they’d be better baserunners or better technical fielders or whatever

2:03	Ben Clemens: But they’d just be too big and fast and strong and it wouldn’t matter

2:03	Ben Clemens: If you had them grow up in the same conditions as everyone else from that time, but guaranteed they’d play baseball, I think they’d stlil have a good shot at being a star

2:04	Ben Clemens: Basically, these days the world does a GREAT job finding the best baseball players and getting them into baseball

2:04	Ben Clemens: 100 years ago, there were a lot of schoolteachers and whatnot

2:04	Marshall: Is Matt Beaty good enough to start for some teams? In general, if a reserve player is good enough to start, would the team be better off trading them for other assets (like prospects or relievers)?

2:04	Ben Clemens: I tihnk Beaty could start for some teams, sure

2:04	Ben Clemens: But I don’t think it’s optimal to flip all your surplus all the time

2:05	Ben Clemens: As the Dodgers have shown, depth is really important

2:05	Ben Clemens: It’s not just about having the best starting 8, if you want to win your division depth is quite important

2:06	Vermont Lake Monsters: Will there ever be a top Oakland Athletics prospects story this year?

2:07	Ben Clemens: Haha, yes for sure. There are still five teams left (Angels, Mariners, A’s, Brewers, Cubs), all Arizona Spring Training teams I believe

2:07	Ben Clemens: Eric and Kevin do an absurdly thorough job, which involves a ton of cross-checking and validating with third-party scouts, which takes a while

2:08

Guest: Do you think a draft prospect could realistically inflate their own helium by coming into chats like this, or leaving a comment under one of the Kevin’s article’s that’s like “hey this so and so seems pretty good, I saw him and he has real power!” Or is everyone too suspicious of that? Ty Cobb apparently used to do it by sending letters to sportswriters.

2:09	Ben Clemens: Mmm, I think it might work if the prospect was actually quite good but overlooked

2:10	Ben Clemens: Not that that happens a ton these days, but I think if there was a true out-of-nowhere guy who threw 100 or whatever, maybe that’s a way to be seen? But basically no. And honestly, Flatground and baseball twitter and such are already doing a lot of that work

2:10	Biscuit Pants: Hi Ben. How come league average WRC+ isnt 100? (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…)

2:11	Ben Clemens: It’s a function of how we define it. wRC+ is based off of non-pitcher batting lines (and it gets somewhat funky in the extreme past). If you filter by non-pitchers (there’s a handy NP position filter) you’ll see that wrC+ has been 100 every year for forever

2:12

giodude: I sent you a tweet yesterday about “hanging curve/slider” and how the designation seems based more on the outcome than actual pitch movement. seems like the hardest part of this analysis would be getting the “did the broadcasters call this a hanger” data. is this something you’ve looked into before, and would crowd-sourcing be the way to go to get that (very important) data?

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’ve been pondering hanging/backup sliders lately, but I think I’d leave the broadcasters’ opinions out of it

2:13	Ben Clemens: You’d need to adjust for each announcer’s propensity to call things a hanger, and that sounds like more work than I feel like doing

2:13	Appa Yip Yip: If Mike Trout was teleported, as is, back to the 1920s what would his slash line look like?

2:13	Ben Clemens: Oh man, I have no idea how to think about this but I’m going to say something absurd. Like .450/.550/1.200

2:14	Ben Clemens: Clearly I’ve done no research at all and just thrown out three numbers, but uh, that’s how questions like this are best answered

2:14	raikura: Thank you for plugging Oro di Oliva last week. Made a clutch b-day present.

2:15	Ben Clemens: Glad I could help! Yeah it makes a nice gift, as someone who has received it as a gift

2:15	Moose_Bolton: What is your favorite hot dog toppings? I had veggie dogs for lunch. One with giardiniera and hot sauce and sport peppers. One with BBQ sauce, cheddar, and grilled onions. Both very yumbo.

2:15	Ben Clemens: I’m not much of a hot dog person, but maybe I should be. My favorite toppings revolve around some kind of spice. So maybe banana peppers?

2:15	Ben Clemens: Banana peppers are just tremendously underrated on the whole, I think

2:16	Giant Gonzales: Banana peppers are good, but jalapeno slices are far superior. Tuna with jalapenos, just saying

2:16	Ben Clemens: I don’t agree with this. I do like jalapenos, but banana peppers just deliver on what I want more

2:17	Appa Yip Yip: With Trout hurt for the next two months (BOOOOOOO) who’s your pick for AL MVP?

2:17	Ben Clemens: For me, it’s currently a two-man race between Vladdy and Ohtani

2:18	Ben Clemens: Bogaerts is mashing too, so if the Red Sox keep it up maybe I should have his name in the conversation

2:18	Ben Clemens: I do think that the sheer buzz around Ohtani helps

2:18	Ben Clemens: Like, what a tremendous physical freak (in the best possible way)

2:18	Isolated Thinker: The modern player would have to adjust to a much smaller glove in 1921. 1B would be much tougher especially.

2:18	Ben Clemens: Eric Hosmer can scoop with any glove on

2:18	Ben Clemens: The rest of them might struggle

2:18	John Barron: There’s this guy, out of New York, who plays for a prep school who’s gonna be huge, I tell ya.

2:19	Peppers: Mama Lil’s WTW

2:19	Ben Clemens: Okay sure, if you can just pick the best peppers, I’ll pick those

2:19	Ben Clemens: Mama Lil’s are indeed great

2:19	Daniel: Sleeper pick for MVP. Aaron Judge. Strikeouts have been down, and the contact is loud as always

2:19	Aaron Judge: Yet of all players, Judge’s K rate is down pretty noticeably, even considering that one really bad week. Is he swinging more?

2:19	Ben Clemens: Another solid choice! I dunno what to make of Judge’s season; like, he’s swinging and missing WAY less

2:20	Ben Clemens: but it’s largely down to making more contact on out-of-zone pitches

2:20	Ben Clemens: I think that works out quite well, it just feels weird to have success driven by that

2:20	Ben Clemens: Or well, change in success

2:20	Ben Clemens: Obviously his overall success is driven deep to left center for a home run

2:20	Adam: Which would be a more “exciting” stretch run to you… Dodgers/Padres both chasing 100 wins but the loser definitely in the WC game, or four NL Central teams all clustered around .500, and three of them go home?

2:21	Ben Clemens: Probably the first, really. If the NL teams were clustered higher, or if the NL West teams were lower, I would change my answer

2:21	Ben Clemens: But a 100-win team in the Wild Card would feel like a pretty big punishment, so I think it would feel very important

2:21	Ben Clemens: Sorry, we need some more pepper discussion really quickly

2:21	Giant Gonzales: I can agree to disagree. Some people want more vinegar than heat.

2:22	Ben Clemens: That’s totally fair. I tend not to use peppers for that, but some vinegar can be very nice

2:22	Ben Clemens: Pickled lots of things are just great

2:22	Ben Clemens: We make our own pickled red onions a lot these days, and I’ve been enjoying them

2:22	Appa Yip Yip: The only problem with banana pepper is sometimes you get the bit with all the seeds and stems and texturally it is unpleasant

2:23	Ben Clemens: Yes, I cut my own when I have them at home (they’re pretty easy to cut), and I just toss the stems

2:23	Ben Clemens: Completely agree that that’s the big downside

2:23	billyjojimbob: Hey Ben….Of these, which is likely to remember he was good at baseball? Tommy Pham, Jorge Soler, Keston Hiura (getting called up today)

2:23	Ben Clemens: Easy Pham for me out of these three

2:24	Ben Clemens: If you looked at his batted ball and plate discipline numbers, but obscured his statline, you’d think he was doing great

2:24	Ben Clemens: Feels like a hard-luck situation there

2:25	Ben Clemens: I’d put Soler on this general page, but I do worry about his aggression leading to too many strikeouts

2:25	Ben Clemens: Hiura, well, I’m down on him

2:25	Ben Clemens: I hope he works it out, but I’m skeptical it’s an easy fix

2:26	Mark: Which above average batting line is more amusing, Grandal or Baez?

2:26	Ben Clemens: Grandal for me

2:26	Ben Clemens: The walks!!!!

2:26	Ben Clemens: It’s just hilarious

2:26	Giant Gonzales: I’d also be interested in the recipe you use for your pickled red onions. TY

2:27	Ben Clemens: Sure thing. This is a recipe from one of Gaby Dalkin (of What’s Gaby Cooking)’s cookbooks

2:27	Ben Clemens: 1 cup apple cider vinegar, 1 tablespoon sugar, 1.5 tsp kosher salt, 1 thinly sliced medium red onion

2:27	Ben Clemens: Whisk everything up, pour it over the onions, let it sit in a bowl for a while

2:27	Ben Clemens: a while is like, I dunno, 1.5 hours?

2:28	Ben Clemens: I’ve dabbled with different vinegars but I stick with the stock recipe most of the time

2:28	Giant Gonzales: again, thank you. just so everyone else knows, I did also ask baseball questions but sometimes the hungry man in all of us wins

2:28	JJ: TATIS! TATIS! TATIS! TATIS! (deep breath) TATIS! TATIS!

2:28	Ben Clemens: He’s so fun

2:28	Joe: Is Trey Mancini both the comeback player of the year and the best available bat on the trade market?

2:28	Ben Clemens: Ooh, comeback player of the year easily

2:29	Ben Clemens: As for best bat, I think it depends on whether Trevor Story is a better bat

2:29	Ben Clemens: Looking around elsewhere, you could say Gallo as well

2:30	Ben Clemens: I think they’re both better trade pieces for sure, but Mancini will definitely draw interest if the O’s want to move him

2:30	Ben Clemens: Personally, I think it’s cool that he’s on the Orioles and I hope he stays, but I know teams don’t operate that way

2:30	Deeeedeeee: Kris Bryant has a better bat than either

2:30	Ben Clemens: Yeah but the Cubs are above .500!

2:31	Matt: Grandal has a 130 WRC+ whiles batting .141 is truly a marvel

2:31	Gil: I went and bought a Tatis shirt this weekend. This one action resulted in Tatis’ recent hot streak. You’re welcome everyone.

2:31

Woostah Sox: Apparently, players on a team’s 40 man roster aren’t eligible for the Olympic team. Will the Red Sox call up Duran earlier to preclude his inclusion on the team? It would make sense if they planned on bringing him up before July. Just thinking the optics would look bad to pull him from the team after it was set.

2:31	Woostah Sox: It seems Duran wouldn’t have been under consideration if they Red Sox hadn’t given the “ok”.

2:31	Ben Clemens: This is very interesting, and I’m probably not the right person to ask about it

2:32	Ben Clemens: Presumably if they’re going to call him up, they’ll just tell the Olympic team look, he’s going to play in the major leagues, go suck a lemon

2:33

Western Dave: Did someone mention the best peppers? Hatch Green Chiles. No contest. Versatile nice blend of flavor and heat. Look for Ramah Valley chiles to be commercially available soon (another year or two). Grown on volcanic soil, they are going to be awesome.

Also, is Odubel Herrera a changed player? Or is he just having one of his hot streaks?

2:34	Ben Clemens: Oooooooh, I do like hatch chiles but they’re hard to find sometimes. I have added that to a list of good foodstuffs I’m hunting for

2:34	Tom: JD Martinez should probably have some CPOY consideration

2:34	Ben Clemens: Yeah, but Mancini beat cancer and is good now, so

2:34	Ben Clemens: C’mon

2:34	Tom: Joe Ryan of the rays org keeps posting phenomenial k numbers and good walk numbers too but i dont see a ton of hype on him. Where do you evaluate him

2:35	Ben Clemens: I’ll level with you, I’m going to rely heavily on Eric and Kevin on this one

2:35	Ben Clemens: But I like the numbers, and I really like these flat-angle fastball pitchers

2:36	Ben Clemens: I think he projects as one of the Rays’ hybrid types

2:36	Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s a mistake that he’s made 4 starts and pitched 16.2 innings, let’s just say

2:36	Ben Clemens: They are not exposing him deep into games, which seems wise

2:36	Comeback: Kluber’s ahead of JD but behind Mancini if we’re doing CPOY rankings.

2:36	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’ll buy that. And to be clear, CPOY is not just about being good again after being bad. Outside data is allowed and Mancini’s story is just way better

2:37	Clover: I bought Willy Castro’s upside in dynasty and appear to have lost, badly. Are there any advanced stats which offer some hope or is it time to cut bait and move on? Thx

2:37	Ben Clemens: Uh

2:37	Ben Clemens: Let’s do some digging, here

2:38	Ben Clemens: I’ve got exactly two for you

2:38	Ben Clemens: One is that he can hit the ball really hard

2:38	Ben Clemens: Another is that he’s 24 and on the Tigers, so he has three years to figure it out

2:38	Ben Clemens: But oof, it’s not a good year so far

2:38	Ben Clemens: I’d lean towards cutting bait sadly

2:38	BIG FAN: Watching this rays game, this Wells kid has some range! Does he stick there, and where do you see Franco and Brujal playing IF they come up this year?

2:39	Ben Clemens: Yeah, Walls will stick at short. His arm is incredible, dunno if you’ve seen that yet

2:40	Ben Clemens: I saw speculation that it would be third for Franco and center for Brujan, I don’t feel like I have any better insight than that

2:40	Ray: Can I officially give up on Corbin?

2:40	Tom: What do you make of Pat Corbins rough start for WSH?

2:41	Ben Clemens: I don’t know if it’s QUITE time to give up; I’m encouraged to see his velocity ticking back up slightly. He really needs that to make his slider work

2:42	Ben Clemens: That said, he’s hardly misisng any bats, and that’s terrifying

2:43	Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s as bad as his results have been, but I also don’t think he’s goin to return to his form of 2-3 years ago

2:43	Ben Clemens: Here’s a big problem:

2:43	Ben Clemens: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/patrick-corbin/9323/pitch-type-split…

2:44	Ben Clemens: If you look at the plate discipline numbers on his slider, batters are making contact on 64% of their swings

2:44	Ben Clemens: When Corbin is good, that number should be under 50%

2:44	Ben Clemens: He’s just not fooling anyone with it, and I think it slightly comes down to them not respecting his fastballs anymore

2:44	Super Max: In the race for second behind Mancini in the CPOY I would also like to nominate Jed Lowrie for overcoming the Mets.

2:44	Ben Clemens: A truly inspiring tale, to be sure

2:44	BIG FAN: Yes it was a very impressive play. He’s got a cannon. Speaking of impressive and cannons my boy Riley on the bravos. So glad I was patient with him!

2:45	Ben Clemens: Yeah, Riley is a great example of why we’re all generally giving up on prospects too soon

2:45	Ben Clemens: He wans’t ever bad for the Braves, really

2:45	Ben Clemens: He just took a while to get going

2:45	Ben Clemens: 500 PA of blah baseball doesn’t mean you’re not good anymore, that can happen to anyone

2:46	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

2:46	Frustrated: I’m finally giving up on Luis Castillo. Reasonable?

2:46	Ben Clemens: Ugh

2:46	Ben Clemens: Frustrating, but reasonable

2:46	Ben Clemens: I mean, he’s obvoiusly not a 7.6 ERA guy

2:47	Ben Clemens: Stranding only 54% of his runners is just not gonna continue

2:48	Ben Clemens: But I’m kind of off him as an ace

2:48	Ben Clemens: And if he’s a mid-4s ERA type, well, you can probably do better than that, someone will value him higher

2:48	Appa Yip Yip: People were ready to give up on Vlad last year because he didn’t go full Soto from the jump.

2:48	Ben Clemens: Yeah, and here I am writing Castillo off

2:48	Ben Clemens: I would just say that I have more leash on prospects

2:48	Ben Clemens: a lot of the time

2:48	Ben Clemens: Particularly hitting prospects

2:49	Ben Clemens: But yeah, give hitters run, and if pitchers see a decline in stuff, be worried

2:49	Ben Clemens: Is my gneeral rule

2:49	Jay T: Is Matt Olson and Pete Alonso pretty much the same offensive player?

2:49	Ben Clemens: They’d make a nice platoon

2:49	KC Bbq: So, if Brujan comes up to play CF what with Keirmaeir? Released, traded ??

2:49	Ben Clemens: Oh, traded

2:49	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure it’ll happen

2:51	Ben Clemens: But the Rays don’t like paying people, and Kiermaier has a salary above 0, so the Rays writers and fans I follow are really high on coming up with trade proposals for him

2:51	BIG FAN: Exactly, great point. Many people will be dropping Kelenic in a few weeks if he doesn’t pick it up according to Yahoo chats on his profile lol

2:51	Nolan: Speaking of giving up too earlier on prospects… Kelenic is a certified bust now, right? /s

2:52	Dalton Wilcox: Speaking of Olson, he’s breaking out yah? Like big time breaking out

2:52	Dalton Wilcox: Like better than ever breakout

2:52	Ben Clemens: I don’t think his strikeout rate is gonna stick this low given his approach, but it has space to go up by say 5-10 percentage points and still have him better than ever

2:53	Ben Clemens: I was definitely too low on him coming into the season

2:53	Ben Clemens: Our ROS projetions are in the 130 wRC+ range, which is great, better than his career line. That’s a truly valuable 1B

2:53	Ben Clemens: And that’s before we get into the defense

2:53	Super Max: Regarding Riley: I get the idea that some fans overhype their prospects to a point where they expect immediate All-Star performance. Reaching the status of average everyday player is already a solid outcome for many of the top-100 prospects.

2:53	Ben Clemens: Yeah, this too

2:54	Ben Clemens: Average everyday players are realllllly good

2:55	Ben Clemens: In 2019, there were something like 90 players who were average or better in a full season’s playing time

2:55	Ben Clemens: So 3 per team on average?

2:56	Steve O: Any chance the Rays wait until NEXT year to call up Wander? He’s only 20, and they may just rather him get more seasoning in AAA. They know they’ll probably only have him for 4, maybe 5 years, what difference does it make to them if he’s up at 20 or 21?

2:57	Ben Clemens: I don’t think so. That’s just wasteful; the Rays are good right now, and adding Franco makes them more likely to be good this year

2:57	Ben Clemens: If they’re totally out of the race when they get done gaming his Super 2 eligiblitiy, then mayyyyybe

2:58	Ben Clemens: But like, are they gonna keep him down past Super 2 again next year? Otherwise there’s nothing to be gained after they de-S2 him this year

2:58	Ben Clemens: For those of you unfamiliar with the dark arts of keeping your prospects down, the top 20% (I think?) of players with less than a full year of service time are granted Super 2 status, which gets them to arbitration a year earlier in exchange for an extra year of arb

2:59	Ben Clemens: So the team keeps the same number of years of control, but the player gets paid more in those years

2:59	Ben Clemens: If you can get a guy below 110-ish days of service time, you get to pay them the minimum for an extra year

2:59	Ben Clemens: The Rays are not famous for not using every possible lever to minimize payroll expenditure

2:59	Guest: Are we seeing max Muncy? He’s been on a hot streak.

2:59	Ben Clemens: This might even be super-max Muncy

3:00	Ben Clemens: He’s locked in at the plate in a way I haven’t seen someone in quite a while. Not just hitting the ball hard, but swinging where he can do damage and such. It’s quite impressive

3:00

Guest: Kelenic will obviously improve, but am I wrong in thinking he was almost dangerously overhyped? He’s got plenty of power, but to me he seems like a guy whose average and OBP might be fairly pedestrian, and who will be best suited as a corner OF. As you just said, average players are really good! But it feels like he has been hyped as the next Trout, which is a lot to live up to.

3:01	Ben Clemens: If people were hyping Kelenic as the next Trout, they’re going to be disappointed

3:01	Ben Clemens: I mean, the guy can really hit! Don’t get me wrong

3:03	Ben Clemens: When I ran weighted major league likelihoods to do some fringe prospect research this offseason, he was right up there with Alex Kirilloff, Geraldo Perdomo, Jeter Downs, some good names

3:03	Ben Clemens: But I mean…. Eric put a 60 on him, which is a nice prospect grade

3:03	Ben Clemens: Trout was an 80

3:03	KC Bbq: The vast majority of rookies struggle when they first get called up…..even Trout. That being said how long of a leash will the Mariners have with Kelenic if he keeps struggling like this?

3:04	Ben Clemens: Huge, I think. They might as well just run with it at this point

3:04	Ben Clemens: I guess the argument against is ‘hey they’re still competitive’

3:04	Ben Clemens: But like, are they?

3:04	Nick: Will anything of substance come from the Eric Kratz allegations?

3:05	Ben Clemens: For those who didn’t see it, Kratz said everyone was stealing signs like the astros did, just less aggressively. He detailed the Rockies doing it specifically

3:05	Ben Clemens: I’ll say basically no

3:06	Ben Clemens: The league is interested in moving on, and they’re hardly interested in justice

3:06	Guest: Which is more interesting to you: Olympic baseball or WBC baseball? The Olympics obviously has a longer tradition, and the “Olympics” brand, so to speak, carries more gravitas; but the rosters at the WBC seem much better, with a resulting higher quality of on-field play.

3:06	Ben Clemens: WBC baseball by a mile

3:07	Mr. Fister: It IS the Mariners, so now that Trammell is hot, they’ll swap him and Kelenic, and then rinse and repeat for the rest of the season. They ARE the Mariners after all…..

3:08	Didace: Currently, Tatis is the second best shortstop in the NL. Yes?

3:08	Ben Clemens: I guess Trea Turner is supposed to be first in this example? I mean, I’ll take Tatis

3:09	Ben Clemens: Turner is great! Francisco Lindor is great! I think Tatis is better

3:09	Guest: Who are your picks for ROY: Garcia and Chisholm seem like the front runners at the moment.

3:10	Ben Clemens: So before the year I picked Andrew Vaughn and Dylan Carlson.

3:10	Ben Clemens: I guess for the sake of consistency, I’ll stick with those

3:11	Ben Clemens: Garcia is obviously the AL leader in the clubhouse, but I just don’t buy that he can keep it up. At this point I’d take Arozarena if I were re-picking

3:11	Ben Clemens: In the NL, I’d probably still pick Carlson tbh

3:11	Ben Clemens: But yeah, Jazz has been better sof ar

3:11	Nick: Which team is more disappointing: The Reds (20-25 despite have the two best hitters by wRC+ in the NL) or the Angels (20-27 despite having two of the best players in Trout and Ohtani in all of baseball)?

3:11	Ben Clemens: Angels

3:12	Ben Clemens: The Reds literally salary dumped players to the Angels this offseason

3:12	Ben Clemens: And like, yeah Winker and Castellanos have been amazing

3:13	Deeeedeeee: More likely to opt out: Arenado or Castellanos?

3:13	Ben Clemens: So, I think it’s Castellanos

3:13	Ben Clemens: But I don’t think either is particularly likely

3:13	Ben Clemens: Opting out in advance of this year’s CBA just feels like a move no one’s gonna make

3:14	Sticky Situation 😉: Choose a walk in song as a closer, any song 🙂

3:15	Ben Clemens: Andrew Miller came in to “When The Man Comes Around” at a Yankees game I went to once

3:15	Ben Clemens: I loved that

3:15	Ben Clemens: I know it’s kinda common, but it really works

3:15	Ben Clemens: That said, that would not be my song

3:16	Ben Clemens: I would be very tempted to come in to AC/VC by Neil Cicierega:

3:16	Ben Clemens:

3:17	Ben Clemens: But again, probably not actually that. Actual song would be Cold Sweat by Church of the Cosmic Skull:

3:17	Ben Clemens:

3:17	Ben Clemens: ‘cold sweat’ would also describe how my manager would feel relying on me

3:18	Steve O: JD Martinez will opt out though, right?

3:18	Ben Clemens: Ooh, this one is really close. If he hits like this all season, I guess so. Hard to imagine him getting THAT much less than 19.3 for 2022

3:18

Guest: MLB TV made the broadcast of Kelenic’s debut free. Guys on Twitter were so eager to break the news of him being called up that they jumped the gun trying to be first. It’s a lot more than I remember for, say, Luis Robert, who was a 60 grade, or Jo Adell (who was a 65). It feels like there was a mythology around Kelenic, partly because of the trade with the Mets, and maybe partly because he’s an extremely marketable-seeming dude.

3:19	Ben Clemens: Yeah, he seems very marketable and I think baseball was eager to make his story be about the excitement of his debut rather than the Mather stuff

3:19	Ben Clemens: Helped that Logan Gilbert was called up the same day too

3:19	LFC Mike: If the Rays don’t bring up Brujan after S2. Could it turn into a real brouhaha?

3:19	Ben Clemens: heyyyyyyyy

3:19	Ben Clemens: But uh, yes, I’m sure people will raise a stink about it and baseball will do nothing about it

3:20	Ben Clemens: Also the PA won’t care

3:20	Ben Clemens: So, depends on your definition

3:22	Dipoto: How many at bats does a struggling prospect get before they feel they need to head back down to the minors for more seasoning?

3:22	Ben Clemens: I have truly no idea, and it’s a really interesting question

3:24	Guest: Do you see Tatis Jr. turning his defense around this season?

3:24	Ben Clemens: I’m partially stalling for time, but that’s silly — I’m not gonna come up with a good answer for you during this chat.

3:24	Ben Clemens: Sorry, didn’t mean to fire anohter question in there

3:24	Ben Clemens: Just got overly happy hitting go

3:25	Ben Clemens: I don’t know what to make of Tatis’s defense. It’s the errors again, but they’re BAD again

3:26	Ben Clemens: I thikn they’ll straighten themselves out, but I’m iffy on whether that’s this year

3:26	Ben Clemens: I will say that error rate on chances is not stable at all, and his range and arm are still good

3:26	Dipoto: Does 10/350 get it done for Corey Seager in the offseason?

3:26	Ben Clemens: I think so, I think less might do it

3:27	Appa Yip Yip: Bo Bichette was making a ton of errors at the start of the season, but he’s largely cleaned them up. Do you think he can stick at short, or is a move to 2b in his future?

3:27	Ben Clemens: I think he’ll end up at second, though not this year and maybe not next

3:27	Ben Clemens: I’m less confident in that than I was when he came up, though, so I wouldn’t say it’s settled science by any means

3:28	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Well here’s a fun new entry in the Rays’ stadium/ownership saga. https://www.tampabay.com/news/st-petersburg/2021/05/24/tampa-bay-rays-…

3:28	Ben Clemens: Oh man, the drama never ends in the Gulf Coast

3:28	Ben Clemens: I thikn now that people got mad at me for calling the Rays “Tampa”, I’m going to be very conservative with my nomenclature and just say “Gulf Coast” or “Greater Florida” when I refer to them

3:29	Ben Clemens: Don’t want to name the wrong city, so just don’t name a city, easy!

3:29	Thrifty: Seager, Story, or Correa?

3:30	Ben Clemens: I’ll take Seager of that group, then the other two in a tie. Both great, though

3:30	Ben Clemens: All three great, I mean, but Story and Correa are both great despite, in my estimation, not being as good as Seager

3:31	Guest: Over under on no hitters ROS?

3:31	Ben Clemens: 4.5

3:31	Ben Clemens: I wanted to set it really high

3:31	Ben Clemens: But eh, air’s heating up, summer is better for offense, and the league might whoopsie the supply of baseballs over the All Star break like they did in 2015

3:32	Appa Yip Yip: Baseball teams should be required to be named after where they actually play. St Pete Rays. Anaheim Angels. Cobb County Barves. Don’t let the billionaires leech off a city’s cache while simultaneously reaping the cost savings of not playing there.

3:32	Ben Clemens: Dunedin Blue Jays, my friend 🙂

3:32	Steve Nebraska: Another cpoy nomination had to be Ohtani, no?

3:32	Ben Clemens: Yeah again, not gonna matter, but I think he’d probably count. His is weird b/c he didn’t EXACTLY miss 2020 with injury

3:33	Chris: What do you think about the reports that the mets are kicking the tires on kyle seager?

3:33	Ben Clemens: Makes sense to me

3:33	Ben Clemens: He’s good, and the Mets haven’t been burned by recent trades for Seattle veterans

3:33	Ben Clemens: wait dangit

3:33	Ben Clemens: Well, he’s good, that one is right at least

3:34	Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, I’m gonna head out and cook myself some lunch. My wife is seeing her family for the first time since COVID, which means we (and let’s be real, 70% her with me helping) didn’t do any meal prep this weekend, so it’ll be a real adventure

3:34	Ben Clemens: Have a great day and week, everyone

3:34	Ben Clemens: Heck, have a great month, why limit ourselves?

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG