Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: Hope you’re having a great Monday so far

Ben Clemens: Let’s talk about baseball

MLBTR: E. Escobar -> WSox thoughts on that trade, who it might entail? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/06/white-sox-discussing-eduardo-es…

Ben Clemens: I’m not 100% sure who it will entail, but I like the idea a lot for Chicago

Ben Clemens: When I wrote about possible trades for the Sox, I thought they might try to snag Asdrubal Cabrera too:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-white-sox-find-a-madrigal-replacem…

Ben Clemens: But Escobar for someone in the 10-20 range in the CHW system seems reasonable

Ben Clemens: Not completely sure who that would be as I haven’t followed their farm system overly much this year

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is there a reasonable explanation why Pujols has been so much more effective for the Dodgers than Angels? Is it a usage issue, a player attitude issue, or just random luck?

Ben Clemens: Reasonable to say that it’s some of each of these

Ben Clemens: I mean, player attitude isn’t really a fair way to say it, but I can totally believe that changing teams has rejuvenated Pujols’s approach somehwat

Ben Clemens: It can get tiring to do the same thing over and over and keep hearing you’re bad

Ben Clemens: A change of scenery is a good way to jolt the system

DJ: Over his first month since the trade, Willy Adames performance has been almost perfectly in line with his previous road splits. He’s repeatedly said he couldn’t see the ball well at Tropicana Field. Do you believe there was some legitimate issue with his previous home park, or do you think his extreme reverse splits (.616 OPS at home, .864 OPS on the road) were mostly a fluke?

Ben Clemens: I think the answer lies somewhere in between

Ben Clemens: I’m willing to believe that Adames saw the ball worse at the Trop, but not nearly by as much as his splits suggested

Ben Clemens: In 2018, he was a better hitter at home than away

Ben Clemens: And I’m not sure that you can look at his career .391 road BABIP and say ‘yep that’s what happens when he sees the ball’

Ben Clemens: But I’ll buy some of it. He walks more on the road, which is quite weird

Derek: What are reasonable expectations for Wander’s debut? Possibly related: what are your expectations for Wander’s debut?

Ben Clemens: Unrelated questions, but I’ll answer both

Ben Clemens: What are reasonable expectations? He’ll be an above-average regular immediately, with decent on-base skills driven by his feel for contact and acceptable defense

Ben Clemens: My expectations: I’m going to watch the crpa out of him and I hope he wins ROY

Farhandrew Zaidman: What is your take on the Glasnow/Cole argument that a decreased feel for the baseball (caused by a firmer pitcher grip) will lead to more injuries?

Ben Clemens: I believe this, but only to a limited degree

Ben Clemens: Pitchers might have weird soreness from switching the way they pitch

Ben Clemens: That happens when you start using muscles you haven’t relied on as much before

Ben Clemens: Or overuse muscles (the same ones that are used to grip also protect the UCL)

Ben Clemens: But they’ll adapt

Dalton Wilcox: Which Brewers’ SP has the most staying power: Woodruff, Peralta, or Burnes?

Ben Clemens: For me, it’s Burnes, though I wouldn’t fault you for picking Woodruff. Both are a cut above Freddy, even though I think he’s also excellent

Ben Clemens: I just have always been high on Burnes, and I think that when you have the ridiculous stuff he boasts, it’s less challenging to stay ahead of hitters

Ben Clemens: I’m also, and perhaps unnecessarily, a little worried about whether Woodruff will look different with the sticky stuff crackdown

Ben Clemens: He’s one of the pitchers who had a big spin spike mid-career

FunFella13: How confident are we with the park factors for Dunedin and Buffalo’s parks given major leaguers have not played very much in them?

Ben Clemens: Not very!

diadem: What is ARZ’s thinking bringing up Varsho? On the job training? Would him getting steady ab’s in the minors be better for his long term?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I really don’t think they’ve handled him well

Ben Clemens: This bouncing between AAA and the majors is going to be really tough

Ben Clemens: That said, I think this most recent call-up is kind of easy, right?

Ben Clemens: With Kelly out for a while, they can actually give him consistent reps

Ben Clemens: I didn’t like when he was up earlier this year, but I like him being up now substantially more

Laffy Tuffy: After the 2022 season would you consider signing Eui Ji Yang to a one year deal in the $5 million range if your team needs a catcher and don’t have a premium catching prospect?

Ben Clemens: Absolutely

Ben Clemens: I’m surprised there hasn’t been more buzz on him coming over in the past

Ben Clemens: He just RAKES

Ben Clemens: A catcher who hits like that is such a luxury

Dalton Wilcox: The Rockies would be wise to trade German Marquez this year but does it actually happen?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: They seem to just do these kinds of trades in extreme slow motion

Ben Clemens: Which to me means the offseason

Ben Clemens: Story seems far more likely

The Stranger: Happy Wander Franco Day! Or is it Merry Wander Franco Day?

Ben Clemens: It’s whatever you’d like to say

Ben Clemens: It’s a holiday, though, that’s for sure

Pumpsie Green: Were you as shocked as me to see the Rays actually call up a player of that age? I really didn’t expect to see Franco for another year, or maybe until they used a couple of his option years after they were forced to add him to the 40-man. What changed?

Ben Clemens: I would say I’m pleasantly surprised

Ben Clemens: I mean, it was always going to be absurd to hold him down

Ben Clemens: this isn’t the normal 40-man abuse system, b/c there’s just not much benefit to waiting to get your Wander Franco goodness

Ben Clemens: Seven years of control now or 7 years of control later, whatever

Ben Clemens: But I thought they might try to be REALLY greedy and wait until mid-July to ensure he doesn’t get Super 2

Rays: Are the Rays calling up Franco for Rays calculating reasons or have they felt a little uneasy losing Glasnow and a full week of games? (You’re gonna say “both” aren’t you)

Ben Clemens: Of course both

Ben Clemens: I’d also like to point out that Franco may not achieve Super 2 status unless I’m doing the math wrong

Ben Clemens: It’s going to be close

Ben Clemens: And if he misses it by a day

Ben Clemens: Well, then the Rays got 6.5 years of control, with 3.5 at the minimum

Ben Clemens: Which is literally the MOST they could get out of him

Don: Rank these trade assets: Ohtani, Vlad Jr., Trout

Ben Clemens: Vlad, Trout, Ohtani

Ben Clemens: Ohtani’s trade value is going to be depressed b/c of his recent TJ and the uncertainy around his workload

Pumpsie Green: I wanted to be a pitcher, too, but my muscles did not allow it. Maybe Glasnow wasn’t really meant to be a pitcher either, since he needed to cheat to protect his pitching muscles?

Ben Clemens: I mean

Ben Clemens: Cool

Ben Clemens: Let’s go ahead and get Tom Seaver, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, etc. out of the Hall

Ben Clemens: you don’t think people used sunscreen and rosin before 2021?

Ben Clemens: If you want to take more direct issue with Cole, Bauer, etc.

Ben Clemens: Go nuts

Ben Clemens: But the whole ‘every pitcher is cheating’ thing

Ben Clemens: I mean, yeah. They all have been for 100 years

Derek: I’d guess the recent losing streak probably accelerated things for the Rays & Franco too… It’d look pretty dumb to let the division get away from them while the best prospect in baseball is mashing AAA pitching all season.

Ben Clemens: Right. I think that they’d HOPED to have a little more buffer

Ben Clemens: I’ve been predicting a mid-July callup for a while

Ben Clemens: But I see the thikning in calling him up now

Ben Clemens: He’s probably their second-best hitter

Ben Clemens: You should have that person in the major leagues if you want to win games

Dalton Wilcox: Will the new pitching rules put more of a demand on pitching skills that aren’t velocity? There’s plenty of other skills. Does this up the Value of someone like Kyle Hendricks?

Ben Clemens: An excellent question that I just have no clue about

Ben Clemens: I’m not actually sure if this devalues velocity, for example

Ben Clemens: It’s just confusing until we get some more data

CB: This whole “sunscreen and rosin is cheating” thing reminds me of McGwire. Everyone’s doing it now (and everyone knows about it). Everyone was doing (the other) it back then (and everyone knew about it). McGwire kept andro in plain view IN HIS LOCKER for deity’s sake.

Big Joey: If Wander is a good as we hope, he’ll only stay in Tampa for 4 years, right? They can’t sign him longterm……so where does he end up??  😀

Ben Clemens: Not necessarily. If he’s a perennial MVP candidate, they can pay him in arb and still be getting a meaningful surplus

Ben Clemens: That’s not the end-all be-all for the Rays, but it’s the end-most be-most

Ben Clemens: If they can pay him $12 mil in arb and get a 6 WAR season they’ll definitely do it

Pumpsie Green: I’m also against runners on second stealing signs! So yeah, my personal HoF is just an empty room :).

Ben Clemens: Haha well that’s totally fair

Pumpsie Green: Before the season, would you have preferred Springer or Arenado, long-term? And who do you prefer going forward?

Ben Clemens: I was really down on Springer this offseason, not b/c I had any insight into potential injury woes, but b/c I thought he was more of a corner outfielder than a CF

Ben Clemens: So I would have taken Arenado, and would still take Arenado

Ben Clemens: But I think I was not on industry consensus there

Ben Clemens: And I don’t think my opinion would change too too much based on this year

Ben Clemens: Arenado has been essentially what you’d expect

Ben Clemens: and Springer has been hurt

Ben Clemens: Obviously it cuts down on the value of the contract, b/c Springer hasn’t really plyaed this year, but going forward, I wouldn’t move my projections too much

CB: What should / what will the Cardinals do at the deadline? Everyone says they need to win now to keep Nolan, but wouldn’t they be better off doing a quick-sell and retool for next year? Nolan has to understand that plan and he has another opt out after 22 if it doesn’t work.

Ben Clemens: It’s gonna depend a lot on the next month

Ben Clemens: If they’re 6 games over .500 on July 22

Ben Clemens: Then why would they sell?

Ben Clemens: They’re the kind of team where the standings REALLY matter

Spin: Do you think the pitchers who were best but using the sticky things will still be the same list of best pitchers without it? Would there be a type of pitcher who benefits MORE from this than another type, or would they all benefit equally? Like Cole can still go 8 IP 2 ER against the Jays lineup. But are there high-K guys who are likelier to really struggle now?

Ben Clemens: I think there’s a misconception that everyone is using the same high-performance tacky nonsense

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’s the case

Ben Clemens: Like, Trevor Bauer is going to be more impacted by this change than Adam Wainwright

Ben Clemens: You heard it here first

Ben Clemens: Pitchers who rely less on spin were less likely to be using the most RPM-additive stuff, and so they’ll probably be hurt less after an adjustment period

Appa Yip Yip: People are still spoiled from Soto. We literally just went through this with Vlad and now everyone has Franco Fever. Like prepare for a lot of mediocrity spiked by flashes of brilliance for a year or so don’t do this to yourselves.

Ben Clemens: Are you wrong? No

Ben Clemens: Is that boring? Yes

Ben Clemens: Franco is already projected for a .268//328/.402 line by Steamer which is crazy

Ben Clemens: He is a cut above your average top prospect callup

Ben Clemens: But yes, prepare yourself for disappointment in general

Jacques Pederson: Speaking of Wainwright, how great has he been for the Cardinals? Their rotation is just decimated by injury, except the 39 year old?

Ben Clemens: Truly remarkable. He looked cooked YEARS ago

Ben Clemens: and then he’s just turned the clock all the way back

Ben Clemens: And he has delightful old man vibes too

Ben Clemens: In OOTP Perfect Team this year, they have this mission where you get to unlock different versions of an iconic player over time

Ben Clemens: The Cards’ player is Wainwright

Ben Clemens: And it’s really remarkable how many different phases of his career he’s had

Ben Clemens: I was shocked to learn yday that his career high in single-game K’s is 12, btw

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

bosoxforlife: Are you reveling in the incomprehensible performance that Shohei Ohtani is giving us as much as I am? I have set a dedicated TV to make sure I catch every AB. It is rarely that we get to see something that has been seen since 1919 and even that year Ruth only pitched 3 times after July .

Ben Clemens: Truly amazing

Ben Clemens: It’s also fun b/c of his comical size

Ben Clemens: He looks like a 13-year-old playing in U11

The Stranger: Does Jarren Duran use “Hungry Like the Wolf” as his walk-up music, and if not where can I start a petition to make that happen?

Ben Clemens: Petition with the Braves organist, I’m sure he’ll play it if the Sox ever visit there

bosoxforlife: Has the time come for the Red Sox to call up Jarren Duran or are they making sure he gets past Super 2 day?

Ben Clemens: Speaking of

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely a consideration. It’s too bad he can’t play first base….

Ben Clemens: But yes, hitting this well at AAA implies something about your ML ability

Bad Bill: Followup to CB’s question: The Cardinals seem to be tottering between being buyers and sellers going forward.  Assuming their starting pitching continues to be bitten by the injury bug and they become clear sellers, who’s the first guy they should try to sell (as opposed to dump)?  Who can they get best value for, yet afford to lolse?

CB: So what if the Cards are 6 games under .500 on 7/30? Get what you can for Martinez?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I thikn they turn sellers if they’re not in the race at the end of July

Ben Clemens: Not a big selloff, and I think they’d actually get Arenado’s blessing on it

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’d get a ton for Martinez, but if Kim has been healthy again he could go, and Andrew Miller is perpetually two good starts away from being interetsing

Ben Clemens: I think anything past that is a hard sale, though, bc they’re not moving Yadi or Waino

Ben Clemens: So to some extent they’ll just make these tiny around-the-edges moves and hope to spike a playoff spot in spite of small selling moves

Ben Clemens: I could see them trading Bader if someone bowls them over, b/c Carlson has been credible in center

sam: Hey Ben, did you see/read about Trevor Bauer’s suggestion to spray every ball with an agreed upon tacky substance so that there is more uniformity with the baseballs? Any thoughts on his idea – it seems fair/plausible. His biggest gripe was that rubbing them with mud is inconsistent and outdated

Ben Clemens: Seems completely reasonable, and other leagues (KBO is the one that first springs to mind but I believe NPB as well) have uniformly tacky balls

Dalton Wilcox: Best pitcher traded this month

Ben Clemens: Boy…. Matt Wisler?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know if we’ll see any trades in the next week and he looks like the best of the bunch so far

Dalton Wilcox: Best pitcher traded next month?

Ben Clemens: Berrios. I just think it’s happening ,don’t have any inside info

Pumpsie Green: Uniformly tacky balls. Ha.

Ben Clemens:

The Stranger: Speaking of old man vibes, are you old enough to start keeping track of how many MLB players are older than you? I’m down to three, and it kind of feels like it’ll be a tipping point in my life when they’re retired.

Ben Clemens: I’m not quite there yet, but I’m turning 36 this year

Ben Clemens: So it’s a matter of years

CB: Interesting point about Bader. If Carlson and O’Neill are locked into RF/LF and Arenado/Goldy are the other corners, where does Gorman fit? They’re playing him at 2B but he seems like an easy fit for OF.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, throw him in right or something

Ben Clemens: I’m not in love with the Tommy Edman leadoff hitter plan

Ben Clemens: But I am comfortable with using him as a second baseman

Chet Manley: Been thinking this for weeks, and because of your OOTP Brewers series you are probably more aware of this than others… but Milwaukee has to be all-in on an impact bat, right? You can’t waste the trio of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta, along with Hader and Williams, while they’re all healthy and cheap, right? Right???

Ben Clemens: I totally agree in real life…. in my sim none of the pitchers have developed as well as planned so I have actually been signing pitchers

Ben Clemens: But yes, when you roll this well on pitching (and develop this well, but let’s not act like there’s no luck involved) you should push on it

Pumpsie Green: Have you ever seen a player with an opt-out include a negotiation window in their contract? Wondering if Arenado could look around for a few days to see if he would be offered more than the 6/$180 he’s already got.

Ben Clemens: I’ve never heard of it, and I don’t think teams would be interested in doing that, but I also think that probably some under-the-table tampering goes on anyway

Ben Clemens: You know, call up Arenado’s agent in regards to another client, and while you have him on the phone mention that you’re looking for a tihrd baseman and you’d have x dollars if a premium dude came on the market this year

Ben Clemens: I don’t know a lot about tampering rules but it would hardly surprise me if that happens

pitchers: Why do so many top young SPs the past couple of years seem like 2-pitch guys? And is that normal?

Ben Clemens: I agree with you that it feels that way, but I don’t have a good way of quantifying it

Ben Clemens: Some of it is that there are a lot fewer prospects coming up with a pitch that is bad but that they also throw 30% of the time

Ben Clemens: Like, lots of “three-pitch starters” were two-pitch starters who threw a changeup b/c they were supposed to

Ben Clemens: If you play OOTP, you’ll know the 60 fastball, 80 slider, 20 changeup type

James: We’ve seen repeated instances where rules are historically rarely enforced and become more like guidelines until people step over the line (e.g., steroids, sign stealing, grip enhancers), what do you think it will it take to have MLB engage in a top to bottom look at the rulebook and make changes to prevent this pattern from continuing?

Ben Clemens: A divine bolt of lightning that resets the course of human history and re-wires everyone’s brains

Ben Clemens: Like, that’s the story of human history

Ben Clemens: Not just baseball

Ben Clemens: To paraphrase Charlie Murphy, humanity steps over the line, habitually. We’re all habitual line-steppers

Gary Sanchez: Is this basically what some of the folks pointing out he was hitting better than his underlying numbers the last couple of years were saying?

Ben Clemens: Kind of?

Ben Clemens: Like, 2019 yes

Ben Clemens: 2020, no, he was just bad

Ben Clemens: But yeah, he’s using a similar approach to the past

Gil: Damn, a Charlie Murphy reference? RIP to him

Ben Clemens: RIP indeed

Calvin Coolidge: Asked KG a few weeks back if Babe Ruth had a stronger influence on baseball (as a sport) than Boras. It’s weird to acknowledge, but as I suspected (and agree with), his answer was something like “Boras, and it’s not even close”. Besides Jackie (who is obvious), are there any other players you think have exerted a stronger influence than Boras? Maybe Clemente and Ichiro b/c of their influence on baseball’s globalization?

Ben Clemens: Curt Flood

Ben Clemens: Candy Cummings, who invented the idea of a pitch that curves

Ben Clemens: (though I’m fine if you don’t want to include him, b/c someone else would have figured it out)

Keith: Do you believe in Sasquatch?

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a good idea to be honest

Ben Clemens: And I’m not just going to snap yes or snap no

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing no

Ben Clemens: But I just don’t have any view whatsoever

Gary Sanchez: Maybe it means 2020 was just a weird year for a lot of people.

Ben Clemens: Indeed

Ben Clemens: I’ve never been an ‘overlook a year of data using narrative’ person

Ben Clemens: But 2020 is sorely tempting me for a lot of players

Ben Clemens: Not just b/c of the sample size, but b/c of the pure weirdness of it

Gil: Are any of the Williams, Drury, McKinney type guys filling in for injured Mets anything more than AAAA guys? Wondering if any of them have any value as the team assesses needs going into trade season

Ben Clemens: I think McKinney is legit-ish as a fourth outfielder

Ben Clemens: Drury, maybe

Ben Clemens: Not totally in on Williams

Guest: Which is more likely: Yankees break the record for triple plays in a season, or league breaks the record for no-hitters in a season?

Ben Clemens: Oh, what a wonderful question.

Ben Clemens: Let’s do a poll

Ben Clemens:

The Stranger: I once went on a tour with a guide who was talking about how Sasquatch was real, but transdimensional and easier for children to see because their minds weren’t as rigid. This was in response to a question from a kid of about 10, and it took me a few minutes to realize he was dead serious and not just humoring the kid.

Ben Clemens: Okay, well, now I’m leaning towards not real

Offense: Will the Yankee be good at hitting now with Judge/GoodSanchez/Stanton/Voit/Urshela in a row? Being below average can’t last forever, right?

Ben Clemens: I think so

Ben Clemens: Our projections certainly think so

CB: How do you explain all the bad losses the Cardinals have taken lately? Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Patrick Wisdom, Zac Gallen, etc.

Ben Clemens: I’m not devastated by the Adolis loss, that’s a loss shared by every team in baseball, b/c he passed through waivers a few tiems

Ben Clemens: Gallen I think was just a miss on figuring out these mid-tier prospects

Ben Clemens: Patrick Wisdom, I mean, same deal, not really a bad miss to me

Ben Clemens: For me Pham and Arozarena are the headlining bad ones

Ben Clemens: Like, I’ll take the under on a 100 wRC+ rest of career for Wisdom

Ben Clemens: And again, every team in baseball had a shot and no one really wanted him

Ben Clemens: But I do think that they systematically undervalued players like Pham and Arozarena, and that it’s no coincidence that I was in on both and the Rays snagged both relatively cheaply

Guest: Is it crazy to think of a pitcher’s spin rate data as that pitcher’s trade secret? If baseball was another type of entertainment industry, the ability to manipulate a baseball would be intellectual property, right?

Ben Clemens: I think you could make that argument about their grip

Ben Clemens: But not so much for how the actual ball spins

JJ: I’m waiting for the Ben Clemens article about how Austin Adams is breaking FIP by hitting so many people

Ben Clemens: Honest question, how does that break FIP?

Dalton Wilcox: Any good hitters available to trade for?

Ben Clemens: Story is gonna be the headliner

Bad Bill: Re uniformly tacky balls (and avoiding snark): isn’t something like that what Lena Blackburne’s Patented Baseball Rubbing Mud is for?  Just how DOES it affect a baseball?

Ben Clemens: No idea!

Ben Clemens: And I don’t think they konw either

Pumpsie Green: I think we’re likely past S2 Day already, no?

Ben Clemens: Probably?

Ben Clemens: It’s gonna be close

Ben Clemens: Something like 115 days left until the end of the season

Ben Clemens: (ends Oct 3)

Ben Clemens: That was the exact cutoff in 2019

Sticky Stuff: MLB outright banning every substance and specifically mentioning the sunscreen/rosin combo is a blatant way to “give” something on the upcoming CBA negotations, right?

Ben Clemens: I think that if they offer a change in grip substances in exchange for monetary considerations, the players’ union will politely suggest they go pound sand

Ben Clemens: It’s not like that’s an obvious win for the players, but also distrust is so high and this would feel so blatantly manipulative that I can’t imagine it working

Keith: If you threw out the first pitch; would you more likely bounce it or throw it over the catcher?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t thrown off a mound in quite a while. If we assume I’m doing it with no practice, probably  more likely to spike it into the ground

Ben Clemens: I think I’d stay on it too long, fall too far forward, and release too late

namiki: Do you think restrictions on sticky stuff will halt the increase in the strikeout rate?

Ben Clemens: I do!

Ben Clemens: non-pitcher K% is the same year-over-year already

ryan: on miklasz’s show a while back, you said you were ready to throw in the towel on tyler o’neill given K%, etc. still feel that way?

Ben Clemens: I hope I said that I was ready to throw in the towel on him being better than an average hitter

Ben Clemens: But, yeah, I think I was wrong

Ben Clemens: I don’ think he’ll ever be a 150 wRC+ guy

Ben Clemens: But I’ve been impressed by his improvements in terms of swinging at good pitches

Ben Clemens: Going on Bernie’s show later today, incidentally, to talk about this recent sadness

Dungeon Master: DUNGEON. MASTER.

Ben Clemens: Hey, it’s no Matt Damon, but who is

Johnny5Alive: Time for Mets to panic? Some bats coming back, but the rotation/bullpen now looks dicey (injuries, etc). Should they get aggressive now? the 4 game lead looks tenuous with 4 against the braves starting today…

Derek: Are the Mets in kind of a great position? 1st place by a few games, Lindor is great again, McNeil coming back today, Conforto and Nimmo both coming back soon, Carrasco allegedly nearing a debut, deGrom still not seriously injured…

Ben Clemens: Wonderful question, and haha I have no clue

Ben Clemens: Good position? Bad position? Eye of the beholder

JOHNNY.DAMON: JOHNNY.DAMON

Appa Yip Yip: Matt Damon was already the Martian he can be the DM too nerd space is open to all.

Guest: The Arozarena thing I’ll just never get. Guy had a career 145 WRC+ in the minors, age appropriate for every level, including 150+ and 160+ at AA and AAA, and then posted a 138 WRC+ in his big league cameo for a team starved for corner outfield help. Some of that is revisionist history, but if this were JJ Bleday or some similarly aged corner outfield prospect of note, he’d be on the untouchable list, no?

Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s truly baffling

Ben Clemens: Now, you couldn’t have predicted that he’d get so much stronger

Ben Clemens: But it’s not like he was just putting up joke numbers. He obliterated Triple-A his second time through

Ben Clemens: I thought he and Luis Robert were the two best performers in the minors that year

Ben Clemens: And one got quite a bit more hyped, to say the least

Steve O: If Lindor didn’t sign an extension and became a FA this offseason, what does he sign for? I’ll say 1/25 as a pillow contract. Also, yikes.

Ben Clemens: I mean, no? Kind of depends how the rest of the year goes but he’s always been streaky and he’s hitting okay despite a .235 BABIP this year

Ben Clemens: I think he’d get a smaller deal but still fine

DAMON STOUDAMIRE: DAMON STOUDAMIRE

Johnny5Alive: Would Story play 3rd base?  Thinking a Story + Gray to Mets would cure what ails them.

Ben Clemens: I could see that, I could also see an Asdrubal Cabrera reunion if they want to do something lighter

Italian beef w/ giardiniera: Do you think the Brewers will be in on Story? I know they already picked up Adames, but their offense could use a jolt.

Ben Clemens: I do not

Ben Clemens: I think they’re more likely to target a first baseman of some stripe

Appa Yip Yip: Rowdy Tellez belongs on the Brewers unfortunately he can’t really hit 🙁

Guest: Worst prospect take you’ve ever had? Best?

Ben Clemens: My best prospect take was probably Arozarena

Ben Clemens: Cardinals fan-boy-ism and all, but boy I was really high on him

Ben Clemens: Worst take? It’s either being low on Nolan Gorman before this year (remains to be seen) or being a true Steven Matz believer for far too long

Fill In The Blank: Bryan Reynolds finishes the season in a _____ uniform

Ben Clemens: well-fitting

Ben Clemens: but, Pirates

FannyGraphy: Hell Ben, thanks for the chat. I had a question about wOBA. Why is the wOBA lower than the OBP every season? I thought they were supposed to be equal?

Ben Clemens: An interesting question that I’m going to look into behind the scenes

Ben Clemens: But hopefully I just don’t know

Ben Clemens: and it’s some obvious reason

Appa Yip Yip: What the hell are the Jays going to do at catcher? It’s a big mess with so many names and no one just grabbing the job.

Appa Yip Yip: Is there some analysis paralysis going on where they’re just keeping their options too open instead of making a choice and rolling the bones?

Ben Clemens: I definitely think there’s some analysis paralysis, but to some extent they’re just playing it as it lies

Ben Clemens: Jansen was really bad so McGuire is gettin run, and he’s been good enough that he’ll probably keep getting it for now

Ben Clemens: Kirk will steal some of that when he’s back

Ben Clemens: But I’m not sure what they could have done better, they just had kind of similar guys and picked the wrong one at first

FannyGraphy: Thanks for fielding my previous question, even if you don’t know the answer yet. How about this one:
Why do you need the wOBA Scale? If you have all the Constants for each event and go through the formula, the answer is always similar to OBP anyway so I don’t know where the Scale comes in, because I though the Scale was to get the number like OBP, similar to FIP and the FIP Constant. And piggybacking off of that, if you have all the Constants and the wOBA of a season, can you find the Scale with just that information? Is there a formula to find the wOBA Scale?

Ben Clemens: The scale is to convert wOBA to runs

Ben Clemens: So if you do (playerwOBA-lgwOBA)*PA

Ben Clemens: Then divide that by the scale

Ben Clemens: You’ll get wRAA

Ben Clemens: I don’t exactly understand why the initial formula was scaled to OBP, but that’s why you need the scale

Mercedes is an Edsel: How much longer can Tony LaRussa rely on first-two-week success of Yermin Mercedes? He has -9 wRC+ in June, 48 since May 1.

Ben Clemens: Who would you like them to play again? That’s kinda the problem

Ben Clemens: play instead*

Ben Clemens: Like, Andrew Vaughn is the obvious answer except he’s their everyday left fielder

Ben Clemens: Maybe Collins? He’s their only backup catcher though

Ben Clemens: Collins will hopefully get more AB’s

Mercedes is an Edsel: Collins, Lamb, Engel

Ben Clemens: Lamb has been starting in right!

Ben Clemens: Now maybe you can play Engel in right and DH Lamb

Ben Clemens: But Adam Engel is a career .223/.277/.348 hitter sooooo

Mercedes is an Edsel: Make a trade!

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, they should absolutely make a trade

Ben Clemens: That’s definitely the right answer here

Ben Clemens: They just don’t have enough ML bats

Ben Clemens: I 100% agree with this

FannyGraphy: Ah ok, thanks! So you don’t need the scale to get a player’s wOBA, you just need it for other calculations.
Is there any way to get the Scale with a formula, or do you have to get it from the Guts page?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, exactly

Ben Clemens: there is, and I don’t know if offhand but it’s in The Book, and also our glossary should have some links into how to do it

Ben Clemens: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/

Mustaches: On Gabriel Moreno’s player page his Steamer ROS projection is 100 wRC+, which is super impressive for a 21 year old catcher, but that 1 PA is throwing me off. Is that just an indication that he’s not likely to play in MLB this year?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, Steamer has been using a projection that somehow uses our Depth Charts as inputs

Ben Clemens: I do not know exactly how

Ben Clemens: So it’s just us saying he’s not gonna play in the majors

jj: Didn’t STL get a decent prospect for Arozarena? I think Pham was a more troubling trade for me, but there seemed to be something with him and management going on right?

Ben Clemens: They got Liberatore, so yes, that trade will likely look better

Ben Clemens: Depending on how he ends up

Thunderclap Jackson: Has anyone tried to research the potential effect of height differences between consecutive batters on pitcher performance? Could stacking a bunch of tall-short-tall-short batter combos prevent a pitcher (or umpire) from getting into a groove and have a real effect? Likely not enough of one to mess with lineup spots just for this reason, but idk

Ben Clemens: No but wowwwww I’m super into it

Ben Clemens: Written down in my notes folder

Giant Gonzales: As a fan, when I watch my Bosox continue to run out a Marwin Gonzales or Danny Santana or Andriese when you have Durran, Casas, Ort etc not on the 40 man yet they continue to win “most” games should I be happy or be pissed that they are not trying to win “more” games”

Ben Clemens: Pissed

Ben Clemens: I think Casas is more up in the air, he’s doing it at AA rather than AAA

Ben Clemens: But yeah

Ben Clemens: It’s weird that they have these two gaping holes (LF/1B) and their best two hitting prospects are nearly ready and could play there

Guest: how did gleyber torres lose so much power? were juiced balls really responsible for .150 points of SLG?

Ben Clemens: I’ll first say I was never as high on Gleyber as, say, ZiPS

Ben Clemens: But yeah no idea, he looks bad

Ben Clemens: And I don’t think the juiced ball comes anywhere near explaning it

Ben Clemens: B/c his exit velo numbers are also terrible

Ben Clemens: Forget lesser carry

Ben Clemens: Also the balls were juiced last year and he disappoined

Ben Clemens: disappointed*

Ben Clemens: so two years is a scary trend

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: As far as hindisghting STL trades goes, we also don’t know what Arozarena looks like without the chicken and rice muscle bump. And I kind of wonder how good the masses would think he is without that comically absurd postseason. Like how know one knows who Joey Wendle is.

Ben Clemens: Oh totally, I’m just saying I was foresighting on him

Ben Clemens: I thikn that he’s likely a little overrated now b/c of last postseason

Ben Clemens: But I was trying to get us to pencil him in as an everyday outfielder before the 2020 season

Ben Clemens: The power really turned him from average regular into a stud, though

Joshua: If the Nats do end up selling, what type of package do you think they could bring back for Schwarber? Could you give a specific fair and realistic deal as an example? Thanks!

Ben Clemens: Okay, let me try

Ben Clemens: The White Sox could really use a lefty bat and someone who can fake an outfield corner to ease the burden

Ben Clemens: The Nats would like someone who can contribute at least somewhat next year

Ben Clemens: Nats send Schwarber and his whole contract, Sox send Hunter Schryver (28.3% strikeout rate in AAA this year)

Base Ball: I know you’ve been down on Hiura for some time, but do you think he’s truly a below replacement-level caliber player, or do you just think the ceiling is extremely limited?

Ben Clemens: The latter

Ben Clemens: Er, well, that’s not quite it either

Ben Clemens: I think that his game has so many moving parts

Ben Clemens: That it’s just hard for him to consistently be a high-wRC+ hitter

Ben Clemens: Like, it’s a high-wire act

Ben Clemens: And I just think that the times he’s not in perfect sync are enough to keep him from being a great hitter

Ben Clemens: The way I’d be wrong is if he’s able to channel his 2019 contact ability for longer

Ben Clemens: While keeping most of the power

Ben Clemens: But I just think that’s not a likely outcome

Sheven: just catching up, 36 is definitely drifting into “counting remaining guys older than me” territory

Ben Clemens: Hey!

Ben Clemens: Shhhh!

Chris: If the Cardinals had alcantara and gallen they’d be pretty good

Ben Clemens: Yeah Alcantara is another guy I was too low on

Ben Clemens: Who figured it out

The Stranger: Is there anything to the idea that the Sox should call up Casas/Duran soon and give them a few weeks to show what they’ve got before they look for help on the trade market? What’s the downside? Do they risk messing up their development a la Varsho? 40-man crunch?

Ben Clemens: Eric is gonna do a 40 man crunch article soon, hadn’t looked into theirs specifically

Ben Clemens: A few weeks is kinda light if you’re giving up 40 man spots, but Duran needs to be on the 40 after this year anyway so whatever

Ben Clemens: Casas has another year, so that one is less likely for space reasons

Ben Clemens: Like, if he’s just not ready and you moved him too fast, that truly does hurt

Guest: Hiura or Mountcastle long term?

Ben Clemens: Mountcastle for me

Ben Clemens: Going to answer a few more quick ones and then get some lunch

Joshua: Brad Hand to the Blue Jays for………? Thanks.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah I could see that. For a few months of a decent reliever, Jays give up a longer-term piece, maybe Manuel Beltre (a name I picked at random off of Eric’s list)

Ben Clemens: I could see the Jays moving Jansen, too, if the Nats are interested in a catcher. Assuming they follow the plan of just picking one and going for it

Brian: DeGrom has left his past two starts early…today he will be the first pitcher to take the mound under the new sticky substance rule…tell me what happens next.

Ben Clemens: Eh, don’t think DG is a likely guy to get MUCH worse, he’s not really a spin monster type

Ben Clemens: he just throws 100 on the black, that’s good apparently

Rip Calkin: Thoughts on Cedric Mullins? Is his current level sustainable?

Ben Clemens: No! But I think he’s good

Ben Clemens: I just don’t think he’s this good

Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: Pasta salad we made last night

Rip Calkin: 1st division starter good?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Ben Clemens: Not perennial all star but third outfielder for a first-division team good

Ben Clemens: Maybe even second outfielder

Guest: The Boras Corporation is hiring a baseball analyst.  Do you think working for Boras would be enjoyable?

Ben Clemens: I actually think so

Ben Clemens: I love telling stories

Ben Clemens: Seems like that’s a lot of what they do

Guest: “Story is gonna be the headliner.”  So Story is the story of the deadline?

Ben Clemens: Too easy

Ben Clemens: And yes, I’ll consider using that as a headline

Base Ball: Were there contact concerns about Hiura prior to his initial debut?  I don’t recall that being a part of his profile, but then in 2019 he all of a sudden turned into a completely different guy while upping his power.

Ben Clewomans: I asked a few chats ago if you read Thinking, Fast and Slow.  I’m more into the book now, already read Keith Law’s book which touched on many of his points, and what I’ve come to realize is that all of us are wrong about everything.  Obviously I’m embellishing, but I’ve been noticing how comically bad we are at predicting things and yet most people are so confident in their (wrong) assumptions.   Not really a question, but I’d like for more people to understand how wrong we all are about almost everything.

Ben Clemens: Great book

Ben Clemens: Sorry, got caught up in many questions at once

Ben Clemens: I think there were some but not as many as there have been

Ben Clemens: That leg kick was always gonna have some concerns though

Lee: Quick, who has the most homeruns in the majors since 2018?

Ben Clemens: Uh

Ben Clemens: Nelson Cruz?

Ben Clemens: Wow

Ben Clemens: Not who I would have guessed (Cruz is tied for second)

Pumpsie Green: Eugenio Suarez

Pumpsie Green: Saw it on the broadcast yesterday

Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, thanks everyone for hanging out today. There were some AMAZING questions, you guys have really upped your game

Ben Clemens: I’m sorry to everyone who I didn’t get to, and hope to talk to you all again next week.

Ben Clemens: Have a great day