Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/21/21

June 21, 2021

2:00	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

2:00	Ben Clemens: Hope you’re having a great Monday so far

2:01	Ben Clemens: Let’s talk about baseball

2:01	MLBTR: E. Escobar -> WSox thoughts on that trade, who it might entail? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/06/white-sox-discussing-eduardo-es…

2:01	Ben Clemens: I’m not 100% sure who it will entail, but I like the idea a lot for Chicago

2:01	Ben Clemens: When I wrote about possible trades for the Sox, I thought they might try to snag Asdrubal Cabrera too:

2:01	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-white-sox-find-a-madrigal-replacem…

2:02	Ben Clemens: But Escobar for someone in the 10-20 range in the CHW system seems reasonable

2:02	Ben Clemens: Not completely sure who that would be as I haven’t followed their farm system overly much this year

2:02	Farhandrew Zaidman: Is there a reasonable explanation why Pujols has been so much more effective for the Dodgers than Angels? Is it a usage issue, a player attitude issue, or just random luck?

2:02	Ben Clemens: Reasonable to say that it’s some of each of these

2:03	Ben Clemens: I mean, player attitude isn’t really a fair way to say it, but I can totally believe that changing teams has rejuvenated Pujols’s approach somehwat

2:03	Ben Clemens: It can get tiring to do the same thing over and over and keep hearing you’re bad

2:03	Ben Clemens: A change of scenery is a good way to jolt the system

2:03

DJ: Over his first month since the trade, Willy Adames performance has been almost perfectly in line with his previous road splits. He’s repeatedly said he couldn’t see the ball well at Tropicana Field. Do you believe there was some legitimate issue with his previous home park, or do you think his extreme reverse splits (.616 OPS at home, .864 OPS on the road) were mostly a fluke?

2:04	Ben Clemens: I think the answer lies somewhere in between

2:04	Ben Clemens: I’m willing to believe that Adames saw the ball worse at the Trop, but not nearly by as much as his splits suggested

2:05	Ben Clemens: In 2018, he was a better hitter at home than away

2:05	Ben Clemens: And I’m not sure that you can look at his career .391 road BABIP and say ‘yep that’s what happens when he sees the ball’

2:05	Ben Clemens: But I’ll buy some of it. He walks more on the road, which is quite weird

2:06	Derek: What are reasonable expectations for Wander’s debut? Possibly related: what are your expectations for Wander’s debut?

2:06	Ben Clemens: Unrelated questions, but I’ll answer both

2:06	Ben Clemens: What are reasonable expectations? He’ll be an above-average regular immediately, with decent on-base skills driven by his feel for contact and acceptable defense

2:06	Ben Clemens: My expectations: I’m going to watch the crpa out of him and I hope he wins ROY

2:06	Farhandrew Zaidman: What is your take on the Glasnow/Cole argument that a decreased feel for the baseball (caused by a firmer pitcher grip) will lead to more injuries?

2:07	Ben Clemens: I believe this, but only to a limited degree

2:07	Ben Clemens: Pitchers might have weird soreness from switching the way they pitch

2:07	Ben Clemens: That happens when you start using muscles you haven’t relied on as much before

2:08	Ben Clemens: Or overuse muscles (the same ones that are used to grip also protect the UCL)

2:09	Ben Clemens: But they’ll adapt

2:09	Dalton Wilcox: Which Brewers’ SP has the most staying power: Woodruff, Peralta, or Burnes?

2:09	Ben Clemens: For me, it’s Burnes, though I wouldn’t fault you for picking Woodruff. Both are a cut above Freddy, even though I think he’s also excellent

2:10	Ben Clemens: I just have always been high on Burnes, and I think that when you have the ridiculous stuff he boasts, it’s less challenging to stay ahead of hitters

2:10	Ben Clemens: I’m also, and perhaps unnecessarily, a little worried about whether Woodruff will look different with the sticky stuff crackdown

2:10	Ben Clemens: He’s one of the pitchers who had a big spin spike mid-career

2:11	FunFella13: How confident are we with the park factors for Dunedin and Buffalo’s parks given major leaguers have not played very much in them?

2:11	Ben Clemens: Not very!

2:11	diadem: What is ARZ’s thinking bringing up Varsho? On the job training? Would him getting steady ab’s in the minors be better for his long term?

2:12	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I really don’t think they’ve handled him well

2:12	Ben Clemens: This bouncing between AAA and the majors is going to be really tough

2:12	Ben Clemens: That said, I think this most recent call-up is kind of easy, right?

2:12	Ben Clemens: With Kelly out for a while, they can actually give him consistent reps

2:13	Ben Clemens: I didn’t like when he was up earlier this year, but I like him being up now substantially more

2:13	Laffy Tuffy: After the 2022 season would you consider signing Eui Ji Yang to a one year deal in the $5 million range if your team needs a catcher and don’t have a premium catching prospect?

2:13	Ben Clemens: Absolutely

2:13	Ben Clemens: I’m surprised there hasn’t been more buzz on him coming over in the past

2:13	Ben Clemens: He just RAKES

2:13	Ben Clemens: A catcher who hits like that is such a luxury

2:14	Dalton Wilcox: The Rockies would be wise to trade German Marquez this year but does it actually happen?

2:14	Ben Clemens: I don’t think so

2:14	Ben Clemens: They seem to just do these kinds of trades in extreme slow motion

2:14	Ben Clemens: Which to me means the offseason

2:14	Ben Clemens: Story seems far more likely

2:15	The Stranger: Happy Wander Franco Day! Or is it Merry Wander Franco Day?

2:15	Ben Clemens: It’s whatever you’d like to say

2:15	Ben Clemens: It’s a holiday, though, that’s for sure

2:15	Pumpsie Green: Were you as shocked as me to see the Rays actually call up a player of that age? I really didn’t expect to see Franco for another year, or maybe until they used a couple of his option years after they were forced to add him to the 40-man. What changed?

2:15	Ben Clemens: I would say I’m pleasantly surprised

2:15	Ben Clemens: I mean, it was always going to be absurd to hold him down

2:15	Ben Clemens: this isn’t the normal 40-man abuse system, b/c there’s just not much benefit to waiting to get your Wander Franco goodness

2:16	Ben Clemens: Seven years of control now or 7 years of control later, whatever

2:16	Ben Clemens: But I thought they might try to be REALLY greedy and wait until mid-July to ensure he doesn’t get Super 2

2:16	Rays: Are the Rays calling up Franco for Rays calculating reasons or have they felt a little uneasy losing Glasnow and a full week of games? (You’re gonna say “both” aren’t you)

2:16	Ben Clemens: Of course both

2:17	Ben Clemens: I’d also like to point out that Franco may not achieve Super 2 status unless I’m doing the math wrong

2:17	Ben Clemens: It’s going to be close

2:17	Ben Clemens: And if he misses it by a day

2:17	Ben Clemens: Well, then the Rays got 6.5 years of control, with 3.5 at the minimum

2:17	Ben Clemens: Which is literally the MOST they could get out of him

2:17	Don: Rank these trade assets: Ohtani, Vlad Jr., Trout

2:17	Ben Clemens: Vlad, Trout, Ohtani

2:17	Ben Clemens: Ohtani’s trade value is going to be depressed b/c of his recent TJ and the uncertainy around his workload

2:18	Pumpsie Green: I wanted to be a pitcher, too, but my muscles did not allow it. Maybe Glasnow wasn’t really meant to be a pitcher either, since he needed to cheat to protect his pitching muscles?

2:18	Ben Clemens: I mean

2:18	Ben Clemens: Cool

2:18	Ben Clemens: Let’s go ahead and get Tom Seaver, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, etc. out of the Hall

2:18	Ben Clemens: you don’t think people used sunscreen and rosin before 2021?

2:19	Ben Clemens: If you want to take more direct issue with Cole, Bauer, etc.

2:19	Ben Clemens: Go nuts

2:19	Ben Clemens: But the whole ‘every pitcher is cheating’ thing

2:19	Ben Clemens: I mean, yeah. They all have been for 100 years

2:19	Derek: I’d guess the recent losing streak probably accelerated things for the Rays & Franco too… It’d look pretty dumb to let the division get away from them while the best prospect in baseball is mashing AAA pitching all season.

2:19	Ben Clemens: Right. I think that they’d HOPED to have a little more buffer

2:20	Ben Clemens: I’ve been predicting a mid-July callup for a while

2:20	Ben Clemens: But I see the thikning in calling him up now

2:20	Ben Clemens: He’s probably their second-best hitter

2:20	Ben Clemens: You should have that person in the major leagues if you want to win games

2:20	Dalton Wilcox: Will the new pitching rules put more of a demand on pitching skills that aren’t velocity? There’s plenty of other skills. Does this up the Value of someone like Kyle Hendricks?

2:20	Ben Clemens: An excellent question that I just have no clue about

2:20	Ben Clemens: I’m not actually sure if this devalues velocity, for example

2:21	Ben Clemens: It’s just confusing until we get some more data

2:22	CB: This whole “sunscreen and rosin is cheating” thing reminds me of McGwire. Everyone’s doing it now (and everyone knows about it). Everyone was doing (the other) it back then (and everyone knew about it). McGwire kept andro in plain view IN HIS LOCKER for deity’s sake.

2:22	Big Joey: If Wander is a good as we hope, he’ll only stay in Tampa for 4 years, right? They can’t sign him longterm……so where does he end up?? 😀

2:22	Ben Clemens: Not necessarily. If he’s a perennial MVP candidate, they can pay him in arb and still be getting a meaningful surplus

2:22	Ben Clemens: That’s not the end-all be-all for the Rays, but it’s the end-most be-most

2:22	Ben Clemens: If they can pay him $12 mil in arb and get a 6 WAR season they’ll definitely do it

2:23	Pumpsie Green: I’m also against runners on second stealing signs! So yeah, my personal HoF is just an empty room :).

2:23	Ben Clemens: Haha well that’s totally fair

2:23	Pumpsie Green: Before the season, would you have preferred Springer or Arenado, long-term? And who do you prefer going forward?

2:23	Ben Clemens: I was really down on Springer this offseason, not b/c I had any insight into potential injury woes, but b/c I thought he was more of a corner outfielder than a CF

2:24	Ben Clemens: So I would have taken Arenado, and would still take Arenado

2:24	Ben Clemens: But I think I was not on industry consensus there

2:24	Ben Clemens: And I don’t think my opinion would change too too much based on this year

2:24	Ben Clemens: Arenado has been essentially what you’d expect

2:24	Ben Clemens: and Springer has been hurt

2:25	Ben Clemens: Obviously it cuts down on the value of the contract, b/c Springer hasn’t really plyaed this year, but going forward, I wouldn’t move my projections too much

2:25	CB: What should / what will the Cardinals do at the deadline? Everyone says they need to win now to keep Nolan, but wouldn’t they be better off doing a quick-sell and retool for next year? Nolan has to understand that plan and he has another opt out after 22 if it doesn’t work.

2:25	Ben Clemens: It’s gonna depend a lot on the next month

2:26	Ben Clemens: If they’re 6 games over .500 on July 22

2:26	Ben Clemens: Then why would they sell?

2:26	Ben Clemens: They’re the kind of team where the standings REALLY matter

2:26

Spin: Do you think the pitchers who were best but using the sticky things will still be the same list of best pitchers without it? Would there be a type of pitcher who benefits MORE from this than another type, or would they all benefit equally? Like Cole can still go 8 IP 2 ER against the Jays lineup. But are there high-K guys who are likelier to really struggle now?

2:27	Ben Clemens: I think there’s a misconception that everyone is using the same high-performance tacky nonsense

2:27	Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’s the case

2:28	Ben Clemens: Like, Trevor Bauer is going to be more impacted by this change than Adam Wainwright

2:28	Ben Clemens: You heard it here first

2:29	Ben Clemens: Pitchers who rely less on spin were less likely to be using the most RPM-additive stuff, and so they’ll probably be hurt less after an adjustment period

2:29	Appa Yip Yip: People are still spoiled from Soto. We literally just went through this with Vlad and now everyone has Franco Fever. Like prepare for a lot of mediocrity spiked by flashes of brilliance for a year or so don’t do this to yourselves.

2:29	Ben Clemens: Are you wrong? No

2:29	Ben Clemens: Is that boring? Yes

2:30	Ben Clemens: Franco is already projected for a .268//328/.402 line by Steamer which is crazy

2:30	Ben Clemens: He is a cut above your average top prospect callup

2:31	Ben Clemens: But yes, prepare yourself for disappointment in general

2:31	Jacques Pederson: Speaking of Wainwright, how great has he been for the Cardinals? Their rotation is just decimated by injury, except the 39 year old?

2:31	Ben Clemens: Truly remarkable. He looked cooked YEARS ago

2:31	Ben Clemens: and then he’s just turned the clock all the way back

2:31	Ben Clemens: And he has delightful old man vibes too

2:31	Ben Clemens: In OOTP Perfect Team this year, they have this mission where you get to unlock different versions of an iconic player over time

2:32	Ben Clemens: The Cards’ player is Wainwright

2:32	Ben Clemens: And it’s really remarkable how many different phases of his career he’s had

2:32	Ben Clemens: I was shocked to learn yday that his career high in single-game K’s is 12, btw

2:32	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

2:32

bosoxforlife: Are you reveling in the incomprehensible performance that Shohei Ohtani is giving us as much as I am? I have set a dedicated TV to make sure I catch every AB. It is rarely that we get to see something that has been seen since 1919 and even that year Ruth only pitched 3 times after July .

2:32	Ben Clemens: Truly amazing

2:32	Ben Clemens: It’s also fun b/c of his comical size

2:33	Ben Clemens: He looks like a 13-year-old playing in U11

2:33	The Stranger: Does Jarren Duran use “Hungry Like the Wolf” as his walk-up music, and if not where can I start a petition to make that happen?

2:34	Ben Clemens: Petition with the Braves organist, I’m sure he’ll play it if the Sox ever visit there

2:34	bosoxforlife: Has the time come for the Red Sox to call up Jarren Duran or are they making sure he gets past Super 2 day?

2:35	Ben Clemens: Speaking of

2:35	Ben Clemens: It’s definitely a consideration. It’s too bad he can’t play first base….

2:35	Ben Clemens: But yes, hitting this well at AAA implies something about your ML ability

2:36

Bad Bill: Followup to CB’s question: The Cardinals seem to be tottering between being buyers and sellers going forward. Assuming their starting pitching continues to be bitten by the injury bug and they become clear sellers, who’s the first guy they should try to sell (as opposed to dump)? Who can they get best value for, yet afford to lolse?

2:36	CB: So what if the Cards are 6 games under .500 on 7/30? Get what you can for Martinez?

2:36	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I thikn they turn sellers if they’re not in the race at the end of July

2:36	Ben Clemens: Not a big selloff, and I think they’d actually get Arenado’s blessing on it

2:37	Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’d get a ton for Martinez, but if Kim has been healthy again he could go, and Andrew Miller is perpetually two good starts away from being interetsing

2:38	Ben Clemens: I think anything past that is a hard sale, though, bc they’re not moving Yadi or Waino

2:38	Ben Clemens: So to some extent they’ll just make these tiny around-the-edges moves and hope to spike a playoff spot in spite of small selling moves

2:39	Ben Clemens: I could see them trading Bader if someone bowls them over, b/c Carlson has been credible in center

2:39

sam: Hey Ben, did you see/read about Trevor Bauer’s suggestion to spray every ball with an agreed upon tacky substance so that there is more uniformity with the baseballs? Any thoughts on his idea – it seems fair/plausible. His biggest gripe was that rubbing them with mud is inconsistent and outdated

2:39	Ben Clemens: Seems completely reasonable, and other leagues (KBO is the one that first springs to mind but I believe NPB as well) have uniformly tacky balls

2:40	Dalton Wilcox: Best pitcher traded this month

2:40	Ben Clemens: Boy…. Matt Wisler?

2:40	Ben Clemens: I don’t know if we’ll see any trades in the next week and he looks like the best of the bunch so far

2:40	Dalton Wilcox: Best pitcher traded next month?

2:41	Ben Clemens: Berrios. I just think it’s happening ,don’t have any inside info

2:41	Pumpsie Green: Uniformly tacky balls. Ha.

2:41

Ben Clemens:

Aaron Gleeman

@AaronGleeman

Taylor Rogers, out of context:

“The umpire was sweating through his drawers onto the … for lack of a better term, ball sack. So the balls that were getting thrown back were wet and sweaty.”

[10 minutes later]

“I think I’m the only one to say sweaty ball sack in an interview.”

16 Jun 2021

2:41	The Stranger: Speaking of old man vibes, are you old enough to start keeping track of how many MLB players are older than you? I’m down to three, and it kind of feels like it’ll be a tipping point in my life when they’re retired.

2:42	Ben Clemens: I’m not quite there yet, but I’m turning 36 this year

2:42	Ben Clemens: So it’s a matter of years

2:42	CB: Interesting point about Bader. If Carlson and O’Neill are locked into RF/LF and Arenado/Goldy are the other corners, where does Gorman fit? They’re playing him at 2B but he seems like an easy fit for OF.

2:42	Ben Clemens: Yeah, throw him in right or something

2:43	Ben Clemens: I’m not in love with the Tommy Edman leadoff hitter plan

2:43	Ben Clemens: But I am comfortable with using him as a second baseman

2:43

Chet Manley: Been thinking this for weeks, and because of your OOTP Brewers series you are probably more aware of this than others… but Milwaukee has to be all-in on an impact bat, right? You can’t waste the trio of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta, along with Hader and Williams, while they’re all healthy and cheap, right? Right???

2:43	Ben Clemens: I totally agree in real life…. in my sim none of the pitchers have developed as well as planned so I have actually been signing pitchers

2:44	Ben Clemens: But yes, when you roll this well on pitching (and develop this well, but let’s not act like there’s no luck involved) you should push on it

2:44	Pumpsie Green: Have you ever seen a player with an opt-out include a negotiation window in their contract? Wondering if Arenado could look around for a few days to see if he would be offered more than the 6/$180 he’s already got.

2:45	Ben Clemens: I’ve never heard of it, and I don’t think teams would be interested in doing that, but I also think that probably some under-the-table tampering goes on anyway

2:45	Ben Clemens: You know, call up Arenado’s agent in regards to another client, and while you have him on the phone mention that you’re looking for a tihrd baseman and you’d have x dollars if a premium dude came on the market this year

2:45	Ben Clemens: I don’t know a lot about tampering rules but it would hardly surprise me if that happens

2:45	pitchers: Why do so many top young SPs the past couple of years seem like 2-pitch guys? And is that normal?

2:46	Ben Clemens: I agree with you that it feels that way, but I don’t have a good way of quantifying it

2:46	Ben Clemens: Some of it is that there are a lot fewer prospects coming up with a pitch that is bad but that they also throw 30% of the time

2:47	Ben Clemens: Like, lots of “three-pitch starters” were two-pitch starters who threw a changeup b/c they were supposed to

2:47	Ben Clemens: If you play OOTP, you’ll know the 60 fastball, 80 slider, 20 changeup type

2:47

James: We’ve seen repeated instances where rules are historically rarely enforced and become more like guidelines until people step over the line (e.g., steroids, sign stealing, grip enhancers), what do you think it will it take to have MLB engage in a top to bottom look at the rulebook and make changes to prevent this pattern from continuing?

2:48	Ben Clemens: A divine bolt of lightning that resets the course of human history and re-wires everyone’s brains

2:48	Ben Clemens: Like, that’s the story of human history

2:48	Ben Clemens: Not just baseball

2:48	Ben Clemens: To paraphrase Charlie Murphy, humanity steps over the line, habitually. We’re all habitual line-steppers

2:49	Gary Sanchez: Is this basically what some of the folks pointing out he was hitting better than his underlying numbers the last couple of years were saying?

2:49	Ben Clemens: Kind of?

2:49	Ben Clemens: Like, 2019 yes

2:49	Ben Clemens: 2020, no, he was just bad

2:50	Ben Clemens: But yeah, he’s using a similar approach to the past

2:50	Gil: Damn, a Charlie Murphy reference? RIP to him

2:50	Ben Clemens: RIP indeed

2:50

Calvin Coolidge: Asked KG a few weeks back if Babe Ruth had a stronger influence on baseball (as a sport) than Boras. It’s weird to acknowledge, but as I suspected (and agree with), his answer was something like “Boras, and it’s not even close”. Besides Jackie (who is obvious), are there any other players you think have exerted a stronger influence than Boras? Maybe Clemente and Ichiro b/c of their influence on baseball’s globalization?

2:50	Ben Clemens: Curt Flood

2:50	Ben Clemens: Candy Cummings, who invented the idea of a pitch that curves

2:51	Ben Clemens: (though I’m fine if you don’t want to include him, b/c someone else would have figured it out)

2:51	Keith: Do you believe in Sasquatch?

2:51	Ben Clemens: I don’t have a good idea to be honest

2:51	Ben Clemens: And I’m not just going to snap yes or snap no

2:52	Ben Clemens: I’m guessing no

2:52	Ben Clemens: But I just don’t have any view whatsoever

2:52	Gary Sanchez: Maybe it means 2020 was just a weird year for a lot of people.

2:52	Ben Clemens: Indeed

2:52	Ben Clemens: I’ve never been an ‘overlook a year of data using narrative’ person

2:52	Ben Clemens: But 2020 is sorely tempting me for a lot of players

2:52	Ben Clemens: Not just b/c of the sample size, but b/c of the pure weirdness of it

2:53	Gil: Are any of the Williams, Drury, McKinney type guys filling in for injured Mets anything more than AAAA guys? Wondering if any of them have any value as the team assesses needs going into trade season

2:53	Ben Clemens: I think McKinney is legit-ish as a fourth outfielder

2:53	Ben Clemens: Drury, maybe

2:53	Ben Clemens: Not totally in on Williams

2:53	Guest: Which is more likely: Yankees break the record for triple plays in a season, or league breaks the record for no-hitters in a season?

2:54	Ben Clemens: Oh, what a wonderful question.

2:54	Ben Clemens: Let’s do a poll

2:54	Ben Clemens: Which record is more likely to fall this year? Triple Plays (27.2% \| 21 votes) No-hitters (72.7% \| 56 votes) Total Votes: 77

2:54

The Stranger: I once went on a tour with a guide who was talking about how Sasquatch was real, but transdimensional and easier for children to see because their minds weren’t as rigid. This was in response to a question from a kid of about 10, and it took me a few minutes to realize he was dead serious and not just humoring the kid.

2:54	Ben Clemens: Okay, well, now I’m leaning towards not real

2:55	Offense: Will the Yankee be good at hitting now with Judge/GoodSanchez/Stanton/Voit/Urshela in a row? Being below average can’t last forever, right?

2:55	Ben Clemens: I think so

2:55	Ben Clemens: Our projections certainly think so

2:55	CB: How do you explain all the bad losses the Cardinals have taken lately? Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Patrick Wisdom, Zac Gallen, etc.

2:56	Ben Clemens: I’m not devastated by the Adolis loss, that’s a loss shared by every team in baseball, b/c he passed through waivers a few tiems

2:56	Ben Clemens: Gallen I think was just a miss on figuring out these mid-tier prospects

2:56	Ben Clemens: Patrick Wisdom, I mean, same deal, not really a bad miss to me

2:56	Ben Clemens: For me Pham and Arozarena are the headlining bad ones

2:57	Ben Clemens: Like, I’ll take the under on a 100 wRC+ rest of career for Wisdom

2:57	Ben Clemens: And again, every team in baseball had a shot and no one really wanted him

2:58	Ben Clemens: But I do think that they systematically undervalued players like Pham and Arozarena, and that it’s no coincidence that I was in on both and the Rays snagged both relatively cheaply

2:58	Guest: Is it crazy to think of a pitcher’s spin rate data as that pitcher’s trade secret? If baseball was another type of entertainment industry, the ability to manipulate a baseball would be intellectual property, right?

2:58	Ben Clemens: I think you could make that argument about their grip

2:58	Ben Clemens: But not so much for how the actual ball spins

2:59	JJ: I’m waiting for the Ben Clemens article about how Austin Adams is breaking FIP by hitting so many people

2:59	Ben Clemens: Honest question, how does that break FIP?

2:59	Dalton Wilcox: Any good hitters available to trade for?

2:59	Ben Clemens: Story is gonna be the headliner

3:00	Bad Bill: Re uniformly tacky balls (and avoiding snark): isn’t something like that what Lena Blackburne’s Patented Baseball Rubbing Mud is for? Just how DOES it affect a baseball?

3:00	Ben Clemens: No idea!

3:00	Ben Clemens: And I don’t think they konw either

3:00	Pumpsie Green: I think we’re likely past S2 Day already, no?

3:00	Ben Clemens: Probably?

3:00	Ben Clemens: It’s gonna be close

3:00	Ben Clemens: Something like 115 days left until the end of the season

3:01	Ben Clemens: (ends Oct 3)

3:01	Ben Clemens: That was the exact cutoff in 2019

3:02	Sticky Stuff: MLB outright banning every substance and specifically mentioning the sunscreen/rosin combo is a blatant way to “give” something on the upcoming CBA negotations, right?

3:02	Ben Clemens: I think that if they offer a change in grip substances in exchange for monetary considerations, the players’ union will politely suggest they go pound sand

3:02	Ben Clemens: It’s not like that’s an obvious win for the players, but also distrust is so high and this would feel so blatantly manipulative that I can’t imagine it working

3:03	Keith: If you threw out the first pitch; would you more likely bounce it or throw it over the catcher?

3:03	Ben Clemens: I haven’t thrown off a mound in quite a while. If we assume I’m doing it with no practice, probably more likely to spike it into the ground

3:04	Ben Clemens: I think I’d stay on it too long, fall too far forward, and release too late

3:04	namiki: Do you think restrictions on sticky stuff will halt the increase in the strikeout rate?

3:04	Ben Clemens: I do!

3:05	Ben Clemens: non-pitcher K% is the same year-over-year already

3:05	ryan: on miklasz’s show a while back, you said you were ready to throw in the towel on tyler o’neill given K%, etc. still feel that way?

3:05	Ben Clemens: I hope I said that I was ready to throw in the towel on him being better than an average hitter

3:05	Ben Clemens: But, yeah, I think I was wrong

3:05	Ben Clemens: I don’ think he’ll ever be a 150 wRC+ guy

3:06	Ben Clemens: But I’ve been impressed by his improvements in terms of swinging at good pitches

3:06	Ben Clemens: Going on Bernie’s show later today, incidentally, to talk about this recent sadness

3:06	Dungeon Master: DUNGEON. MASTER.

3:06	Ben Clemens: Hey, it’s no Matt Damon, but who is

3:06	Johnny5Alive: Time for Mets to panic? Some bats coming back, but the rotation/bullpen now looks dicey (injuries, etc). Should they get aggressive now? the 4 game lead looks tenuous with 4 against the braves starting today…

3:07	Derek: Are the Mets in kind of a great position? 1st place by a few games, Lindor is great again, McNeil coming back today, Conforto and Nimmo both coming back soon, Carrasco allegedly nearing a debut, deGrom still not seriously injured…

3:08	Ben Clemens: Wonderful question, and haha I have no clue

3:09	Ben Clemens: Good position? Bad position? Eye of the beholder

3:10	JOHNNY.DAMON: JOHNNY.DAMON

3:10	Appa Yip Yip: Matt Damon was already the Martian he can be the DM too nerd space is open to all.

3:10

Guest: The Arozarena thing I’ll just never get. Guy had a career 145 WRC+ in the minors, age appropriate for every level, including 150+ and 160+ at AA and AAA, and then posted a 138 WRC+ in his big league cameo for a team starved for corner outfield help. Some of that is revisionist history, but if this were JJ Bleday or some similarly aged corner outfield prospect of note, he’d be on the untouchable list, no?

3:10	Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s truly baffling

3:11	Ben Clemens: Now, you couldn’t have predicted that he’d get so much stronger

3:11	Ben Clemens: But it’s not like he was just putting up joke numbers. He obliterated Triple-A his second time through

3:11	Ben Clemens: I thought he and Luis Robert were the two best performers in the minors that year

3:11	Ben Clemens: And one got quite a bit more hyped, to say the least

3:11	Steve O: If Lindor didn’t sign an extension and became a FA this offseason, what does he sign for? I’ll say 1/25 as a pillow contract. Also, yikes.

3:12	Ben Clemens: I mean, no? Kind of depends how the rest of the year goes but he’s always been streaky and he’s hitting okay despite a .235 BABIP this year

3:12	Ben Clemens: I think he’d get a smaller deal but still fine

3:12	DAMON STOUDAMIRE: DAMON STOUDAMIRE

3:12	Johnny5Alive: Would Story play 3rd base? Thinking a Story + Gray to Mets would cure what ails them.

3:12	Ben Clemens: I could see that, I could also see an Asdrubal Cabrera reunion if they want to do something lighter

3:12	Italian beef w/ giardiniera: Do you think the Brewers will be in on Story? I know they already picked up Adames, but their offense could use a jolt.

3:12	Ben Clemens: I do not

3:13	Ben Clemens: I think they’re more likely to target a first baseman of some stripe

3:14	Appa Yip Yip: Rowdy Tellez belongs on the Brewers unfortunately he can’t really hit 🙁

3:14	Guest: Worst prospect take you’ve ever had? Best?

3:14	Ben Clemens: My best prospect take was probably Arozarena

3:14	Ben Clemens: Cardinals fan-boy-ism and all, but boy I was really high on him

3:15	Ben Clemens: Worst take? It’s either being low on Nolan Gorman before this year (remains to be seen) or being a true Steven Matz believer for far too long

3:16	Fill In The Blank: Bryan Reynolds finishes the season in a _____ uniform

3:16	Ben Clemens: well-fitting

3:16	Ben Clemens: but, Pirates

3:17	FannyGraphy: Hell Ben, thanks for the chat. I had a question about wOBA. Why is the wOBA lower than the OBP every season? I thought they were supposed to be equal?

3:17	Ben Clemens: An interesting question that I’m going to look into behind the scenes

3:17	Ben Clemens: But hopefully I just don’t know

3:17	Ben Clemens: and it’s some obvious reason

3:17	Appa Yip Yip: What the hell are the Jays going to do at catcher? It’s a big mess with so many names and no one just grabbing the job.

3:17	Appa Yip Yip: Is there some analysis paralysis going on where they’re just keeping their options too open instead of making a choice and rolling the bones?

3:18	Ben Clemens: I definitely think there’s some analysis paralysis, but to some extent they’re just playing it as it lies

3:19	Ben Clemens: Jansen was really bad so McGuire is gettin run, and he’s been good enough that he’ll probably keep getting it for now

3:19	Ben Clemens: Kirk will steal some of that when he’s back

3:19	Ben Clemens: But I’m not sure what they could have done better, they just had kind of similar guys and picked the wrong one at first

3:20

FannyGraphy: Thanks for fielding my previous question, even if you don’t know the answer yet. How about this one:
Why do you need the wOBA Scale? If you have all the Constants for each event and go through the formula, the answer is always similar to OBP anyway so I don’t know where the Scale comes in, because I though the Scale was to get the number like OBP, similar to FIP and the FIP Constant. And piggybacking off of that, if you have all the Constants and the wOBA of a season, can you find the Scale with just that information? Is there a formula to find the wOBA Scale?

3:20	Ben Clemens: The scale is to convert wOBA to runs

3:20	Ben Clemens: So if you do (playerwOBA-lgwOBA)*PA

3:20	Ben Clemens: Then divide that by the scale

3:20	Ben Clemens: You’ll get wRAA

3:22	Ben Clemens: I don’t exactly understand why the initial formula was scaled to OBP, but that’s why you need the scale

3:22	Mercedes is an Edsel: How much longer can Tony LaRussa rely on first-two-week success of Yermin Mercedes? He has -9 wRC+ in June, 48 since May 1.

3:22	Ben Clemens: Who would you like them to play again? That’s kinda the problem

3:23	Ben Clemens: play instead*

3:23	Ben Clemens: Like, Andrew Vaughn is the obvious answer except he’s their everyday left fielder

3:23	Ben Clemens: Maybe Collins? He’s their only backup catcher though

3:23	Ben Clemens: Collins will hopefully get more AB’s

3:23	Mercedes is an Edsel: Collins, Lamb, Engel

3:23	Ben Clemens: Lamb has been starting in right!

3:24	Ben Clemens: Now maybe you can play Engel in right and DH Lamb

3:24	Ben Clemens: But Adam Engel is a career .223/.277/.348 hitter sooooo

3:24	Mercedes is an Edsel: Make a trade!

3:24	Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, they should absolutely make a trade

3:24	Ben Clemens: That’s definitely the right answer here

3:25	Ben Clemens: They just don’t have enough ML bats

3:25	Ben Clemens: I 100% agree with this

3:25	FannyGraphy: Ah ok, thanks! So you don’t need the scale to get a player’s wOBA, you just need it for other calculations. Is there any way to get the Scale with a formula, or do you have to get it from the Guts page?

3:25	Ben Clemens: Yeah, exactly

3:25	Ben Clemens: there is, and I don’t know if offhand but it’s in The Book, and also our glossary should have some links into how to do it

3:25	Ben Clemens: https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/

3:26	Mustaches: On Gabriel Moreno’s player page his Steamer ROS projection is 100 wRC+, which is super impressive for a 21 year old catcher, but that 1 PA is throwing me off. Is that just an indication that he’s not likely to play in MLB this year?

3:26	Ben Clemens: Yeah, Steamer has been using a projection that somehow uses our Depth Charts as inputs

3:26	Ben Clemens: I do not know exactly how

3:27	Ben Clemens: So it’s just us saying he’s not gonna play in the majors

3:27	jj: Didn’t STL get a decent prospect for Arozarena? I think Pham was a more troubling trade for me, but there seemed to be something with him and management going on right?

3:27	Ben Clemens: They got Liberatore, so yes, that trade will likely look better

3:27	Ben Clemens: Depending on how he ends up

3:29

Thunderclap Jackson: Has anyone tried to research the potential effect of height differences between consecutive batters on pitcher performance? Could stacking a bunch of tall-short-tall-short batter combos prevent a pitcher (or umpire) from getting into a groove and have a real effect? Likely not enough of one to mess with lineup spots just for this reason, but idk

3:29	Ben Clemens: No but wowwwww I’m super into it

3:29	Ben Clemens: Written down in my notes folder

3:29	Giant Gonzales: As a fan, when I watch my Bosox continue to run out a Marwin Gonzales or Danny Santana or Andriese when you have Durran, Casas, Ort etc not on the 40 man yet they continue to win “most” games should I be happy or be pissed that they are not trying to win “more” games”

3:29	Ben Clemens: Pissed

3:30	Ben Clemens: I think Casas is more up in the air, he’s doing it at AA rather than AAA

3:30	Ben Clemens: But yeah

3:30	Ben Clemens: It’s weird that they have these two gaping holes (LF/1B) and their best two hitting prospects are nearly ready and could play there

3:30	Guest: how did gleyber torres lose so much power? were juiced balls really responsible for .150 points of SLG?

3:31	Ben Clemens: I’ll first say I was never as high on Gleyber as, say, ZiPS

3:32	Ben Clemens: But yeah no idea, he looks bad

3:32	Ben Clemens: And I don’t think the juiced ball comes anywhere near explaning it

3:32	Ben Clemens: B/c his exit velo numbers are also terrible

3:32	Ben Clemens: Forget lesser carry

3:32	Ben Clemens: Also the balls were juiced last year and he disappoined

3:32	Ben Clemens: disappointed*

3:33	Ben Clemens: so two years is a scary trend

3:33

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: As far as hindisghting STL trades goes, we also don’t know what Arozarena looks like without the chicken and rice muscle bump. And I kind of wonder how good the masses would think he is without that comically absurd postseason. Like how know one knows who Joey Wendle is.

3:33	Ben Clemens: Oh totally, I’m just saying I was foresighting on him

3:33	Ben Clemens: I thikn that he’s likely a little overrated now b/c of last postseason

3:33	Ben Clemens: But I was trying to get us to pencil him in as an everyday outfielder before the 2020 season

3:33	Ben Clemens: The power really turned him from average regular into a stud, though

3:34	Joshua: If the Nats do end up selling, what type of package do you think they could bring back for Schwarber? Could you give a specific fair and realistic deal as an example? Thanks!

3:34	Ben Clemens: Okay, let me try

3:35	Ben Clemens: The White Sox could really use a lefty bat and someone who can fake an outfield corner to ease the burden

3:35	Ben Clemens: The Nats would like someone who can contribute at least somewhat next year

3:36	Ben Clemens: Nats send Schwarber and his whole contract, Sox send Hunter Schryver (28.3% strikeout rate in AAA this year)

3:36	Base Ball: I know you’ve been down on Hiura for some time, but do you think he’s truly a below replacement-level caliber player, or do you just think the ceiling is extremely limited?

3:36	Ben Clemens: The latter

3:37	Ben Clemens: Er, well, that’s not quite it either

3:37	Ben Clemens: I think that his game has so many moving parts

3:37	Ben Clemens: That it’s just hard for him to consistently be a high-wRC+ hitter

3:37	Ben Clemens: Like, it’s a high-wire act

3:37	Ben Clemens: And I just think that the times he’s not in perfect sync are enough to keep him from being a great hitter

3:38	Ben Clemens: The way I’d be wrong is if he’s able to channel his 2019 contact ability for longer

3:38	Ben Clemens: While keeping most of the power

3:38	Ben Clemens: But I just think that’s not a likely outcome

3:38	Sheven: just catching up, 36 is definitely drifting into “counting remaining guys older than me” territory

3:38	Ben Clemens: Hey!

3:38	Ben Clemens: Shhhh!

3:38	Chris: If the Cardinals had alcantara and gallen they’d be pretty good

3:39	Ben Clemens: Yeah Alcantara is another guy I was too low on

3:39	Ben Clemens: Who figured it out

3:39	The Stranger: Is there anything to the idea that the Sox should call up Casas/Duran soon and give them a few weeks to show what they’ve got before they look for help on the trade market? What’s the downside? Do they risk messing up their development a la Varsho? 40-man crunch?

3:39	Ben Clemens: Eric is gonna do a 40 man crunch article soon, hadn’t looked into theirs specifically

3:40	Ben Clemens: A few weeks is kinda light if you’re giving up 40 man spots, but Duran needs to be on the 40 after this year anyway so whatever

3:40	Ben Clemens: Casas has another year, so that one is less likely for space reasons

3:40	Ben Clemens: Like, if he’s just not ready and you moved him too fast, that truly does hurt

3:40	Guest: Hiura or Mountcastle long term?

3:40	Ben Clemens: Mountcastle for me

3:40	Ben Clemens: Going to answer a few more quick ones and then get some lunch

3:40	Joshua: Brad Hand to the Blue Jays for………? Thanks.

3:42	Ben Clemens: Oh yeah I could see that. For a few months of a decent reliever, Jays give up a longer-term piece, maybe Manuel Beltre (a name I picked at random off of Eric’s list)

3:42	Ben Clemens: I could see the Jays moving Jansen, too, if the Nats are interested in a catcher. Assuming they follow the plan of just picking one and going for it

3:42	Brian: DeGrom has left his past two starts early…today he will be the first pitcher to take the mound under the new sticky substance rule…tell me what happens next.

3:43	Ben Clemens: Eh, don’t think DG is a likely guy to get MUCH worse, he’s not really a spin monster type

3:43	Ben Clemens: he just throws 100 on the black, that’s good apparently

3:43	Rip Calkin: Thoughts on Cedric Mullins? Is his current level sustainable?

3:43	Ben Clemens: No! But I think he’s good

3:44	Ben Clemens: I just don’t think he’s this good

3:44	Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s for lunch?

3:44	Ben Clemens: Pasta salad we made last night

3:44	Rip Calkin: 1st division starter good?

3:44	Ben Clemens: Yes

3:44	Ben Clemens: Not perennial all star but third outfielder for a first-division team good

3:44	Ben Clemens: Maybe even second outfielder

3:44	Guest: The Boras Corporation is hiring a baseball analyst. Do you think working for Boras would be enjoyable?

3:44	Ben Clemens: I actually think so

3:44	Ben Clemens: I love telling stories

3:44	Ben Clemens: Seems like that’s a lot of what they do

3:44	Guest: “Story is gonna be the headliner.” So Story is the story of the deadline?

3:44	Ben Clemens: Too easy

3:45	Ben Clemens: And yes, I’ll consider using that as a headline

3:45	Base Ball: Were there contact concerns about Hiura prior to his initial debut? I don’t recall that being a part of his profile, but then in 2019 he all of a sudden turned into a completely different guy while upping his power.

3:45

Ben Clewomans: I asked a few chats ago if you read Thinking, Fast and Slow. I’m more into the book now, already read Keith Law’s book which touched on many of his points, and what I’ve come to realize is that all of us are wrong about everything. Obviously I’m embellishing, but I’ve been noticing how comically bad we are at predicting things and yet most people are so confident in their (wrong) assumptions. Not really a question, but I’d like for more people to understand how wrong we all are about almost everything.

3:45	Ben Clemens: Great book

3:45	Ben Clemens: Sorry, got caught up in many questions at once

3:46	Ben Clemens: I think there were some but not as many as there have been

3:46	Ben Clemens: That leg kick was always gonna have some concerns though

3:46	Lee: Quick, who has the most homeruns in the majors since 2018?

3:46	Ben Clemens: Uh

3:46	Ben Clemens: Nelson Cruz?

3:46	Ben Clemens: Wow

3:46	Ben Clemens: Not who I would have guessed (Cruz is tied for second)

3:46	Pumpsie Green: Eugenio Suarez

3:46	Pumpsie Green: Saw it on the broadcast yesterday

3:47	Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, thanks everyone for hanging out today. There were some AMAZING questions, you guys have really upped your game

3:47	Ben Clemens: I’m sorry to everyone who I didn’t get to, and hope to talk to you all again next week.

3:47	Ben Clemens: Have a great day

1 Comment

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

The Stranger

2 years ago

Following up on a question I asked, I have confirmed via Google that Jarren Duran does (or did at one point) actually use “Hungry Like the Wolf” as his walk-up song, making him an early front-runner for my new favorite player. Only Austin Martin pulling up to the stadium in a DB11 could challenge him…

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG