FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 14–20

The biggest storyline in baseball this week was the announced crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances on the mound. It’s still too soon to tell how this might change the results on the field, but the early research suggests it could have wide reaching effects. Scoring is up in June league-wide, but that may be the normal result of warmer weather.

A quick refresher: my approach takes the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+) and their starting rotation and bullpen (50%/50% FIP- and RA9-) — and combines them to create an overall team quality metric. I add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting based on a team’s expected win-loss record — to produce a power ranking.

The Dodgers have finally reclaimed the top spot in these rankings by winning 10 of their last 12. They’re about to get a lot healthier, too; Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger should be activated from the IL this coming week, and Corey Seager could start a rehab assignment as early as next weekend. That’s good, because their upcoming schedule is tough, with series against the Padres, Cubs, and Giants on the docket.

The Giants’ offense was absolutely dominant last week, beneficiaries of playing the Diamondbacks and Phillies at home; they scored 59 runs in seven games with Brandon Belt and Mike Yastrzemski leading the way. Those two combined to collect 18 hits last week, including eleven extra-base hits and five home runs. But one of the biggest reasons for San Francisco’s continued success has been the vast improvement of its bullpen. At the end of April, Giants relievers had the second worst park- and league-adjusted FIP in baseball. Since that point, they’ve lowered their FIP- to 98 and their ERA- to 81.

The White Sox fell out of the top spot in the tier above after getting crushed by the Astros in a four-game sweep; they were outscored 27–8, with the only close game a walk-off Astros win on Friday. Houston has won seven straight and hasn’t lost a series since getting swept by the Rangers on May 21–23. The offense has been firing on all cylinders, though Alex Bregman strained his quad on Friday and will be out for a while. The Astros are now in a virtual tie with the A’s for the top spot in the AL West and have six games against the Orioles and four against the Tigers on the horizon.

The Rays dropped out of the top tier after losing six straight last week, including a four-game sweep in Seattle. Four of those six losses were walk-offs, and three of them were in extra-innings. To make matters worse, they lost Tyler Glasnow to an elbow injury that could keep him out until the fall. In the wake of that stretch of poor results, Tampa Bay announced that it’s calling up Wander Franco, the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, on Tuesday. It’s probably a bit of hyperbole to call this an overreaction — the Super 2 deadline did just pass after all — but it’s clear the Rays are looking for any advantage they can get with a huge series against the Red Sox this week.

Because of COVID issues to start the season and a number of rainouts since then, the Mets have played the fewest games of any team so far. With so many games to make up, they were bound to have a ton of schedule congestion at some point this season. Last week, they played eight games, and they’re scheduled to play eight more this week, with an off day in between those four-game series, followed by a stretch of 14 straight days with games that will take them to the All-Star break. Luckily, they’re about to get a lot healthier, with Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo all set to be activated from the IL this week. And amazingly enough, Jacob deGrom has managed to avoid another serious injury and should make his scheduled start this week with no problems.

After losing the first two games of their weekend series against the Marlins by a combined score of 21–3, the Cubs managed to salvage the finale on Sunday. They lost their four-game series against the Mets earlier in the week, too, but didn’t end up losing any ground in the NL Central standings after the Brewers matched them with five losses of their own. Chicago has series against Cleveland and the Dodgers on the schedule before a huge three-game set in Milwaukee at the end of the month.

Cleveland failed to take advantage of the White Sox’ woes in Houston, losing two of three to the Pirates over the weekend. Still, the team has closed the gap in the AL Central to just 2.5 games after winning seven of its last ten, all this without its two best starting pitchers, Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac. Those two should be back around the All-Star break, but until then, Cleveland’s rotation has been patched together with a bunch of rookies. It’s a lot to ask of the organization’s vaunted pitching development program in the thick of the postseason hunt.

The Blue Jays finished a stretch of 13 games against the Astros, White Sox, Red Sox, and Yankees earlier this week, going a disappointing 4–9 against some of the best teams in the American League. Their schedule eases up a bit before the All-Star break, but their failures against the cream of the league’s crop is a stark reminder of the flaws present on their roster. The offense has continued to put up tons of runs, but Toronto desperately needs to add to its pitching staff if it wants to make a run at a wild card spot.

The Mariners somehow managed to sweep the Rays in four games over the weekend and now round out the fourth tier of teams. Kyle Seager came through in the clutch with a game-winning single in the ninth inning in the opener on Thursday; Mitch Haniger was the hero in the tenth on Saturday; and Shed Long Jr. blasted a game-winning grand slam in the tenth inning on Sunday afternoon. That sweep wrapped up a stretch where Seattle played 30 games in 31 days.

In 2019, the Nationals famously went 74–38 after May 23 to secure a wild card berth, jumping up from fourth in the NL East to second in just four months. This year, they’re once again playing excellent baseball past that late-May mark, with eight wins in their last 11 games; they are now just five games behind the Mets after beating them in three of four over the weekend. It’s probably too little too late for these Nats, especially with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg sidelined with injuries. Still, any of these teams bunched up behind the Mets could easily pull away from the pack to make a run for the division crown.

The Nationals moved up a tier, but the Twins regained their place with these other struggling squads. Minnesota did just get Byron Buxton back from the IL over the weekend and swept the Rangers in Texas but should be most focused on how its rookies are performing this year. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff and the surprising Bailey Ober have all acquitted themselves well so far, which should give fans hope for next year.

The Diamondbacks have hit a new low, setting the major league record for consecutive losses on the road; they haven’t won away from home since Madison Bumgarner threw his seven-inning no-hitter on April 27. Arizona returned home to face the Dodgers over the weekend, but that didn’t help, as the team’s losing streak is now 17 games — already the second this season of 13 games or longer. Not to be outdone, the Orioles haven’t won on the road since May 5, the day John Means threw his no-hitter in Seattle. Are these two teams cursed? Probably.

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