Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/29/26
| 2:00 |
: Hey everyone. Let’s get chatting. I’m gonna aim for a furious hour of frequent questions before calling it here, as I have another project to get back into. Keep your eyes peeled for some cool big stuff later this week on the prospect front
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| 2:00 |
: Hey Ben, site question for today. Do you know if there’s anywhere I can find up-to-date service time numbers? I can only find pre-current season values on player pages and within RosterResource
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| 2:00 |
: We don’t actually have them. No one really does. It’s a big pain
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| 2:00 |
: Service time is not the same as days on active roster, so we can’t keep it updated. It’s one of the great frustrations of my life as a data wrangler
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| 2:00 |
: Hey Ben! Which ROS projected Win % are you most (and/or least) convicted in? Mets .538, Tigers .523, Red Sox .514, Orioles .507, Giants .504, Marlins .473, White Sox .448, Nationals .441? Thanks!
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| 2:01 |
: Oh fun one. I think I”m least convinced by the Mets of course. But the White Sox are up there too. I really do think we’re slow to update on teams we thought were bad more so than on good teams, but the Mets are a special case where they’re gonna blow it up I think You Aren't a FanGraphs Member It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
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| 2:01 |
: Is Skenes washed? What’s going on with him?
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| 2:01 |
: man, our standards are so high these days
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| 2:02 |
: I think he’s just having a slight down stretch. He’s still really good. If you only take his last 8 starts (the bad ones), he has a 3.03 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, 12 K/9. He’s just giving up a .370 babip
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| 2:02 |
: and that’s the BAD starts
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| 2:02 |
: the last two starts before that were both 8 inning gems
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| 2:02 |
: I counted three separate “we’re adding, we’re going to be getting some pitching” stories from the weekend (Cubs, Pirates, Orioles). There’s probably another 5-10 teams that think they’re in it and want to “target pitching.” With so much demand can a team like the Twins afford to _not_ move a guy like Joe Ryan even if they wanted to keep him? Feels like they could restock their entire system on one trade. (same could be said for Sandy, even Skubal)
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| 2:02 |
: Jays had that story last week during the week
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| 2:03 |
: I don’t think the demand for Ryan will be THAT high, but I do think that pitching will be in predictable demand this deadline
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| 2:03 |
: The Skubal sweepstakes is going to be fascinating. I’m also really curious from a trade value lense
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| 2:03 |
: lens*
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| 2:03 |
: because last season I put him WAY up the list, and this season I’m considering whether he could still be a top 50 trade value guy even with so little service time left
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| 2:03 |
: wild
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| 2:03 |
: Luis Garcia? Luis Garcia! Three lefties above 130 wRC+. Helps hit LHPs well when your three best bats are lefties who can hit anyone. Feel like this was a make or break year for Garcia, and he’s firmly making. Started the year in a platoon with Chaparro!
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| 2:04 |
: yeah, one benefit of being bad at present is that you can give guys like Garcia plenty of playing time to see if they’ll figure it out
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| 2:04 |
: he’s clearly very talented, he just hadn’t quite assembled it all at one time yet
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| 2:04 |
: I’m not saying this is him now. But giving guys more time to figure things out is a nice benefit, and I think that the Nats have shown that with a few players over the years
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| 2:04 |
: Did you catch the highlights of Joe Mack’s snap throw yesterday? His nonchalant defense is my newest example of aesthetic bliss on the diamond. Thought of you when I saw Dansby’s successful deke this weekend too
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| 2:05 |
: I didn’t, and honestly this is a low point for me in baseball watching, between vacation, trade value pre-work, and the world cup being on. I’m watching fewer games per week to have enough time to do all the other sports stuff I want to (mostly baseball analysis, but I definitely am watching world cup in the background where I’d have some random game on otherwise at the moment)
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| 2:05 |
: If you had a player that was league average defense but guaranteed to strike out 100% of the time, but would also see a minimum of X number of pitches per plate appearance, what would you have to set X to be to put them in the line up every day?
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| 2:06 |
: it’s a lot. like, 15? I dunno, it’s so fake of a situation that it begs many other questions. Like, could the pitcher just roll those pitches to home?
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| 2:06 |
: Welcome back! I have to explain to my boss why I was so productive last monday…How can the Phillies realistically improve? Their farm is in shambles, their major league roster is old and expensive, this is pretty much what they have to play with right?
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| 2:06 |
: haha well your boss is welcome for my service
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| 2:06 |
: yeah. They should go for it, with this plus any small depth additions they want to make
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| 2:06 |
: and then probably tear down after they’ve decided this core isn’t doing it anymore
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| 2:06 |
: but not before then
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| 2:06 |
: PCA is taking more pitches. A lot of that is taking more strikes (and he is striking out a little more), but he’s also now running a 10%-ish walk rate. Sustainable or exploitable?
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| 2:06 |
: sustainable, or at least, this direction is sustainable
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| 2:07 |
: it’s totally fine to take more strikes if you’re a guy like PCA, because that incentivizes pitchers to throw him more strikes
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| 2:07 |
: How about that Nationals 4-game sweep of the Phillies last week? I don’t understand why the last three games only went six innings, though. (In a non-delirium world, the bull pen, ugh.)
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| 2:07 |
: the Nats bullpen is both awful, and overexposed because the rotation is also quite bad
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| 2:08 |
: I think I said the Nats were one of my favorite teams to watch this year early in the season, and honestly, the pitching continuing to melt down is only adding to that
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| 2:08 |
: every game is a blast, guaranteed
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| 2:08 |
: Hi Ben, With your fellow Ben (Ben Brown) on the IL with his second Neck Stress Reaction in the past 3 years, sounds like it could be season ending. Since this is second time it’s happened in his young career, sure seems like it’s a recurring type of injury. What are your thoughts long-term? He was really looking good, but now too risky going forward as a keeper?
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| 2:08 |
: I think that I’d be very worried for his future health just because like you said, things that happen many times feel like they might be recurring, very scary
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| 2:09 |
: I hope he’s alright
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| 2:09 |
: we Bens have to stick together
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| 2:09 |
: Yeah yeah yeah figure it out if/when it happens, but how would you plan if you were Getz for what the White Sox infield may look like in 1-2 years between Montgomery, Meidroth, Murakami, Vargas, Gonzalez, Bonemer, and likely adding into the future mix (hopefully for them it works out if so) Cholowsky in a few weeks. Not crazy to have 6-7 viable guys vying for 5 spots over the next two years
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| 2:10 |
: Yeah, it’s a great problem to have. I think that there’s of course some expected attrition, but also, maybe we should look for some offseason strength-for-strength trades with outfieldres or pitchers with them
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| 2:10 |
: I think that those trades are way better suited for the winter, and this particular winter might be tough with the lockout (hopefully not, but let’s be realistic), but I think that they’ll be looking for that kind of deal if everyone keeps clicking
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| 2:10 |
: Murakami is surely in very hot demand, but if I’m the Sox, I’m thinking extension there, not trade
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| 2:11 |
: What old fashioned baseball slang would you like to revive? I vote for bringing back the once-widespread practice of calling the Cubs the Microbes.
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| 2:11 |
: Conversely, what modern baseball slang do you want to ban? The Brewers announcers seem to be trying to make “punchies” (short for punchouts) a thing, and I can’t stand it.
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| 2:11 |
: Great questions, here
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| 2:11 |
: I don’t have a great answer for old slang
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| 2:11 |
: but punchies is definitely not one of my favorites
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| 2:11 |
: fundies would not be one of my favorites if it were anyone other than Keith Hernandez
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| 2:12 |
: as someone who lives in SF, I hear a lot of Giants games, and those guys (Kruk/Kuip) are WAY too slang’ed up
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| 2:12 |
: half the things they say are old inside jokes, it feels like sometimes. it took a lot of getting used to
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| 2:12 |
: If I had told you before the season that Luis Arreaz would lead the Giants in WAR at the end of June, what would you have thought it implied about his and their season?
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| 2:12 |
: his season good, their season bad
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| 2:12 |
: which is basically what’s happening
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| 2:13 |
: How close to .500 / a playoff spot would the Red Sox have to be to buy? Assuming that at .500, they would buy, given the state of the AL and the fact that they’re still one of the 3-5 best teams in it by actual talent.
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| 2:13 |
: I think it has more to do with how many teams are between them and a spot
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| 2:14 |
: like ‘seven games back’ doesn’t sound awful. but ‘there are 6 teams with better records than the Sox who also aren’t in a playoff spot’ is a lot scarier
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| 2:14 |
: I think they need like 3 teams between them and a spot max, and maybe 4 games
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| 2:14 |
: but also…. I think they’re selling
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| 2:14 |
: We obviously know MLB’s proposed changes to the draft are insane, But do you see it altering the trajectory of the draft this year? If you are a prep-player, should you just take the money and run before changes/lockout? Or do you latch on to the certainty of college ball?
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| 2:15 |
: I don’t think it will affect things too much because of the way the pools work, teams don’t have tons of extra cash to hand out this year or anything. Also like…. those changes aren’t happening
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| 2:15 |
: they’re just theater of the absurd, really far from reality, imo
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| 2:15 |
: Given a completely rational owner focused purely on winning and good process to get there (and not short term fan feelings) what would your evaluation on Stearns be?
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| 2:16 |
: I think I’d probably say that I like the process in broad strokes but that realistically, you have to ask about the evaluation process and try to improve it
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| 2:16 |
: a few too many misses on acquisitions in a row to say ‘this is good, we don’t need to change it’
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| 2:17 |
: question your assumptions, don’t tear everything down and start fresh for the sake of redoing it but surely this isn’t a method that can’t be improved on. I’d basically be looking through the process trying to fix things
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| 2:17 |
: “Microbes”?!? What.
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| 2:17 |
: I hadn’t heard that one. but on the other hand, my dad exclusively calls the mets “Pond Scum” and that one seems pretty weird too
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| 2:17 |
: Wimbledon predictions?
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| 2:18 |
: I’m actually feeling a continued Andreeva run, she’s one of my favorite young players of either gender in tennis and the top of the women’s field feels very wide open right now
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| 2:18 |
: ont he men’s side, I mean, sinner
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| 2:18 |
: really sad that Alcaraz is missing, I hope for a healthy return by the US open
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| 2:18 |
: How do I possibly convey my feelings after the Red Sox just swept the Yankees. I should be ecstatic but I am afraid this is going to turn them into buyers which is insane. To root or not to root, that is the question.
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| 2:18 |
: This is one of the surest signs that you’re a devoted fan
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| 2:19 |
: the ‘wait is it bad to win and good to lose?’ feeling when you’re thinking about the long-term health of the franchise and weighing this year vs. next year
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| 2:19 |
: I think you’re right, and I empathize with this feeling both from my more fervent Cards fan days and from talking to my Cards fan friends today
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| 2:19 |
: I’ve lived in Giants territory for the last couple decades, and I second that their announcers are way too slanged up. I hate them with the heat of a thousand thousand suns. “Grab some benchmeat”? Yeah, grab this old man.
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| 2:19 |
: oh man, the first time I heard that one, I was like ‘um excuse me???’
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| 2:20 |
: bye bye baby is overdone too
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| 2:20 |
: anyway the Giants broadcasts are great, truly one of my favorites, but you need a dictionary
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| 2:20 |
: and I think it might be slightly better if you didn’t
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| 2:20 |
: So, Detroit needs to tear it down now right? 2-5 at home last week with 2-3 bullpen implosions is the death knell, right?
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| 2:20 |
: well, maybe not ‘tear it down’, but realistically, they need to at least mostly be thinking about next year
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| 2:20 |
: they’re only a half game out of last in the whole AL
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| 2:21 |
: nothing wrong with setting a high price and waiting a few weeks before action picks up to see if you go on a crazy run, but if I’m them, I’m putting my scouting/front office resources into looking for Skubal trade returns at the moment
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| 2:21 |
: Isn’t the biggest problem with Stearns the fact that he’s way too willing to spend big money on free agents who aren’t superstars? Throwing a giant pile of cash at Juan Soto: good way to spend money. Throwing large-but-not-gigantic piles of cash at Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco: bad way to spend money.
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| 2:21 |
: yeah, that’s kind of what I”m talking about
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| 2:21 |
: the evaluation of acquisitions seems a little bit off to me
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| 2:21 |
: like, maybe these were all just unlucky and the model was right. but eh, I wouldn’t want to assume that
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| 2:22 |
: Re: Mets/Pond Scum: My brothers and I exclusively referred to the Cardinals as the “the deviants” and the Brewers as “the degenerates” for years.
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| 2:22 |
: Ben’s grandfather was a long time Tigers fan and preferred really awful to mediocre!
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| 2:22 |
: that’s true. He always wanted to either have a putrid team or a contender
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| 2:22 |
: Oh man. I grew up in NorCal and “grab some bench, meat” was one of my all-time favorite sayings. We would use that in Little League constantly
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| 2:22 |
: It is never bad to like your team to win. if you worry they are making bad decisions, that’s an indictment of the people making those decisions but a sweep of the yankees? always good ;)
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| 2:22 |
: With the league tossing out ridiculous, non-starter proposals one after the other, it really feels like a negotiating tactic. With the the players unlikely to go for any of the major overhauls, is there anything you see as a realistic result for anything they’ve suggested so far? They’re literally implying no one should be a free agent until they’re 29 or older with a cap on money and years for the players and a cap for the team. I don’t even see compromises to these suggestions.
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| 2:22 |
: Yeah, I agree with this
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| 2:23 |
: This just feels like negotiating tactics
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| 2:23 |
: I talked about this a little bit on Effectively Wild last week, so you can get a more extended version of my thoughts there, but I think that TV revenue reallocation is going to be something that both sides agree with, that maybe there’ll be some movement about giving the owners something in exchange for ending QO’s, and that there’s interest in the pre-arb salary pool being bigger and a bigger driver of early-career earnings
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| 2:24 |
: Why is vladdy broken?
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| 2:24 |
: Funny story. I spent a few days trying to write a story about this earlier in the month
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| 2:24 |
: and I had to give it up because I just couldn’t figure out an angle
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| 2:24 |
: everything I looked at, I’d go huh, no ,not that, let’s keep digging
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| 2:24 |
: and eventually I ran out of places to dig
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| 2:25 |
: How do you think the 3B playing time will shake out in Baltimore with Basallo, Beavers, and Holliday all healthy for the first time in a while? Will it be mostly Blaze Alexander, or mostly Coby Mayo, with Alexander moving into a utility role and no longer playing just about every day?
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| 2:25 |
: I think the latter, but I think they’ll do a bit of a hot hand thing too
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| 2:26 |
: like, if Alexander keeps hitting and Mayo keeps not, maybe you get more of a time share, with Alexander continuing to moonlight elsewhere to get him more PT
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| 2:26 |
: Given his continued struggles at the MLB level, do the Nats entertain selling Dylan Crews for pitching help? Does anyone else in MLB still see the 1.2 shine on him?
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| 2:26 |
: I think that they are unlikely to, becuase i don’t think they’d fetch much of that 1.2 shine, pitching is expensive in-season, and the feeling of buying high, selling low, and seeing a reboudn is just really negative
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| 2:26 |
: One of the surprising developments that I have seen from the ABS challenge system is how accurate the much maligned strike zone box has been. I can’t think of many, if any, times that the TV box hasn’t been correct.
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| 2:27 |
: yeah it’s been pretty good. I thinkt hat not making it immediately clear whetehr something is a strike or ball is good too
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| 2:27 |
: I continue to like the low-impact looking strike zone boxes more than the bright white line ones, just from an aesthetic standpoint, but standardizing the strike zone height for every batter (so that it’s not moving around based on their stance) has massively improved the accuracy of it
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| 2:28 |
: Is the increase in fraternization better or worse for the enjoyment of the game? The benches cleared in a Red Sox/Yanks game the other day and it was all smiles and even a hug between two of them. Imagine showing that to someone even 20 years ago…
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| 2:28 |
: I like it more, but I recognize that it’s not obviously one way or the other to all people
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| 2:28 |
: I’m in baseball for the incredible feats of athleticism, the central tension of the game, and the funny moments
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| 2:28 |
: I don’t think that any of thoes things are harmed by increased fraternization. These guys are still competing as hard as they can. Probably more so now
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| 2:29 |
: I can see other people liking different things. But for me, the players being friendlier off the field is completely okay with me
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| 2:29 |
: Oops… I’ve been thinking. Is it better to have a sport that draws the best athletes (lebrons, myles garretts, etc.) because the advantage of their physicality is large or would it be better to have a sport that appeals to the masses ? Basically is there a supply/demand equilibrium where actually you don’t want the rules to be catered too much to huge athletes for the health of the sport
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| 2:29 |
: I actually think that appealing to the masses is better if you can swing it, but that it’s not always easy
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| 2:29 |
: But, also, it kind of matters what the game looks like
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| 2:29 |
: basketball is better for having outlier athletes play it, I think
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| 2:30 |
: I’m not sure the same would be true of baseball
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| 2:30 |
: I think there’s room for both
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| 2:30 |
: If the Jays are honest with themselves, I believe they aren’t going to contend for a playoff spot this year. Too much has gone wrong, and too much hasn’t corrected in time. Do you think they’d be smart to jump the gun and start selling on guys like Gausman and Bieber? Or is it better to wait until closer to the deadline where there’s more clarity?
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| 2:30 |
: Oh, definitely wait for the deadline. They’re in this big soup of teams that could be in a playoff spot with a hot week
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| 2:30 |
: and plenty of good players on the team, so like, you can easily see them figuring things out and going on a tear
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| 2:30 |
: there’s also probably not a big downside to waiting
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| 2:31 |
: from what I’m hearing, the early-market prices are indeed high, but that means that basically no one is actually shopping yet
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| 2:31 |
: so like, to jump the queue, you’d have to basically offer your guys at no premium? and then what are you doing jumping the queue? get those extra weeks of evaluation
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| 2:31 |
: Tales of Mookie’s demise at the plate may have been slightly exaggerated? He’s brought the season wRC+ to 102, and in June that’s 122. He’s probably not an MVP anymore, but certainly there are a couple of 4 WAR seasons left in the tank?
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| 2:31 |
: certainly’s a strong word, but yeah, betting on Mookie Betts to suddenly be awful feels like it was a loser
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| 2:32 |
: The Phillies are perfectly positioned to go after salary dumps. Matt Chapman, Luis Castillo types. The only advantage they have is that they can run a lofty payroll. They really don’t have anything left to lose at this point.
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| 2:32 |
: that’s interesting
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| 2:32 |
: I wonder if the ownership group is into that. but yeah, basically, they have no assets to trade for stars, but sure they could use their wallet if they wanted
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| 2:32 |
: I just remembered that late in the Cubs game yesterday Counsell pinch hit for Matt Shaw with Justin Dean, who promptly struck out to end the inning. I’ve not seen any explanation for why he went with the journeyman 30yo guy who just got his first MLB hit last week, over the supposed top prospect/future star with the game on the line. They both are RH hitters too, and the AB was against a righty reliever. It doesn’t seem to have been an injury thing. Just throwing it out there because I’m curious, and maybe you or someone in the chat knows more details than I’ve been able to find.
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| 2:32 |
: haven’t heard or seen anything about it. But if anyone in the chat knows, I’d love to hear
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| 2:32 |
: Where are you at on Jordan Walker these days? Strikeout to walk ratio is rough lately
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| 2:33 |
: I’d say that I’m still into it but I remain pretty sure he didn’t turn himself into a 150 wRC+ hitter overnight
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| 2:34 |
: I like to talk about who needs to make an adjustment next
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| 2:34 |
: basically pitchers had to make an adjustment to walker’s new plans early in the season
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| 2:34 |
: and now they have, so it’s up to him to adjust back
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| 2:34 |
: this one feels easier, and alos, he’s still been moderatly productive in the downturn, but they’re pitching him differently and he must now make a counter-adjustment
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| 2:35 |
: I have been watching baseball for a long, long time and last night’s game had more wild swings of emotion than almost any regular season game I have ever seen. From Gray’s great performance, super high, to the depth’s of despair followed by another wild high. Ain’t baseball great!
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| 2:35 |
: Indeed
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| 2:35 |
: That was a really wild game
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| 2:35 |
: the only swings that are up there for me in recent times are, ironically, the world cup game from the previous day
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| 2:36 |
: Algeria/Austria was great b/c a tie advanced both, a win for either advanced Iran plus the winner while eliminating the loser, and yet instead of playing for a tie the teams went absolutely nuts, and there were two goals scored in stoppage time in a 3-3 tie
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| 2:36 |
: late swings of emotion are really fun
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| 2:36 |
: If you’re starting a team today, which one player in the minors or majors are you taking? K. Griffin? McGonigle, et al?
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| 2:36 |
: like, why wouldn’t it be Ohtani?
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| 2:36 |
: but sure, I think I’d probably take McGonigle over Griffin if I had to pick right now, but I am not super sure and I think I’d just take a guy who I already know is incredibly great
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| 2:37 |
: very big brained to value, like, the sixth year of service time more than an absolute superstar at the peak of their powers
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| 2:37 |
: Dylan Crews – June wRC+ is 117 and he plays excellent defense. He’s not going anywhere.
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| 2:37 |
: I agree with this in general
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| 2:38 |
: maybe not hte ‘how’s he hitting in june’
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| 2:38 |
: but the ‘Nats don’t need to see much spark to get convinced’
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| 2:38 |
: There’s so much player movement these days guys know so many more other players around the league personally than 30, 40 years ago, plus with the WBC being a regular thing idk it’s weird to expect them to pretend to hate each other all the time.
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| 2:38 |
: concur
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| 2:38 |
: You speculated a couple weeks ago that the mariners could trade a pitcher at the deadline and that makes a lot of sense given the returns pitchers have gotten and how ready Kade Anderson looks – but – which pitcher do you trade if you’re them? And where do you try to upgrade? Their weakest starting players have been Naylor, Emerson, and Raleigh, which creates a bit of a conundrum it seems
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| 2:38 |
: Follow up on teams targetting pitching: Should the Mariners be offloading an arm at the deadline? I know rotation problems usually solve themselves via injury but at some point with 6 guys and multiple promising arms in the minors surely you seek a bat right?
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| 2:39 |
: yes. We talked about this a few weeks ago. I think that Miller and Gilbert are probably the likeliest guys to move but honestly, that’s on little info, just gut feeling. And I really do think they should be investigating a trade like that given how many teams need pitching
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| 2:39 |
: Who would you take over the next five years: Riley or Raleigh?
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| 2:39 |
: Raleigh. I like his floor much more
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| 2:39 |
: Which one of these current prospects might make it up this year? Made, De Vries, F. Arias, K. Anderson, M. Clark? Thanks!
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| 2:39 |
: Anderson is the most likely for me. Not that the other guys don’t have good arguments in some cases, but have you seen his numbers in Double-A?
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| 2:40 |
: It’s ludicrous. He has a 1.22 ERA and the peripherals to match. He’s striking out 40% of opponents and walking 4%
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| 2:41 |
: He’s only in the minors because his team has the deepest set of starters in baseball. And even then, he’s probalby better than some of those guys right now. If nothing else he’d be a hilariously good multi inning relief option. I just don’t see 2026 ending iwthout him getting big league playing time
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| 2:41 |
: What about Jackson Holidays profile did a lot of scouting evals miss? I understand he’s a fine player but the hype was very high for him
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| 2:41 |
: Eric might be a better person to ask about this, but for me (an early Holliday skeptic, I think it’s fair to say), I was just not convinced that his minor league numbers were indicative of a profile that would work well int he majors
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| 2:42 |
: it was a lot of walk rate-juiced production, and too many strikeouts for how much power there was. like, the wRC+’s were really good, but his best skills werne’t the kinds of skills that best predict future success
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| 2:42 |
: I was less ‘down’ on him than ‘less up than the industry consensus’, though
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| 2:42 |
: I don’t think I quite predicted this path
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| 2:42 |
: Is there a more frustrating manager mistake than poor bullpen manager? Writing in after Michael Rucker and Josh Simpson got high leverage innings to lose the Mariners the game in the eighth
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| 2:43 |
: ‘bad pinch hitter deployer’ is right up there. but yes, giving the bad guys high leverage innings raises my blood pressure like nothing else
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| 2:43 |
: What’s for lunch in SF ?
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| 2:43 |
: great question. I was out of town this weekend, got back last night, and we had delivery that doesn’t have leftovers. So, maybe a sandwich from somewhere nearby, I am not in a cooking lunch mood today
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| 2:43 |
: Just catching up and saw the ‘slang’ question earlier — not the quite the same thing, but there used to be a Padres fan who would hang “Qs” by their seat for every ‘
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| 2:43 |
: quick (3 pitches or less) out the padres got, which I really liked
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| 2:44 |
: oh, I like this
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| 2:44 |
: Seattlefan, I would like you to know that I saw the same thing and wondered how that was allowed to occur.
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| 2:44 |
: When Crochet returns, and Gray is traded, a virtual lock, the Red Sox will have a rotation of five left-handers. I can’t imagine that this has ever been seen before in the glorious history of this great game.
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| 2:44 |
: that’s going to be fascinating
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| 2:44 |
: yeah, I am almost certain it’s never happened because we would hear about it a lot if so
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| 2:44 |
: River Ryan is down with an injury again, a hammy this time. Between the injuries, the obscene Dodgers SP depth, and Katie Woo’s recent article where Andrew Friedman stated in no uncertain terms that Ryan will stay in the minors until he puts together a long string of 5+ IP, starts, dude is just going to languish in AAA all year isn’t he?
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| 2:45 |
: probably. The depth plus the injury issues are just making the path of least resistance very clear
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| 2:45 |
: In light of the Nats’ three straight bullpen meltdowns against the Phillies last week, should they shuffle the deck chairs? Is there an argument for sending some guys down and bringing other ones up just for the sake of being seen to do *something*?
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| 2:45 |
: yes, I’d say.
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| 2:45 |
: doing things just to do them isn’t necessarily a good way to live, but sometimes you have to maek a change just to show the team that you are making a change
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| 2:45 |
: like, if I’m a hitter on the Nats, I want to know that hte team is trying to fix pitching
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| 2:46 |
: not just my teammates — that’s easy enough to see in the weight room, talking to the guys on flights, etc. but seeing that the front office and coaching staff are racking their brains for solutions too is motivating
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| 2:46 |
: and them just leaving everything the same is demotivating
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| 2:46 |
: so yeah, try to do something!
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| 2:46 |
: Where are you at on the never ending former hitter debate about pulled air % that Eric Chavez recently weighed in on? Like on one hand I get it, trying to turn a contact hitter into a slugger may hurt their development, but on the other hand, the math don’t lie.
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| 2:46 |
: I think that nuance is necessary to have a good discussion about this, but also nuance is impossible in on-air debates for soundbites
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| 2:47 |
: it’s clearly wrong for every hitter to try this
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| 2:47 |
: or at least, it won’t work for many hitters
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| 2:47 |
: and yet, there are many hitters who would be well served to find slightly different approaches, probably with more power as the goal
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| 2:47 |
: that’s a very hard thing to convey in 15 seconds with a former athlete who spent 20 years learning how to hit a baseball, though
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| 2:48 |
: I struggle to believe in the sustainability of Casey Schmitt’s first half power parade, but there are exactly zero decent 3B on the (blatant) trade market. Whereabouts do you estimate the level of return required to grab him midseason?
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| 2:48 |
: a good but not top 100 prospect, plus a lottery ticket or two
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| 2:48 |
: Does having a high spin fastball reduce the amount of backspin hitters can put on it when hitting? In my head it seems like it would, but I’m only 100% right about half the time.
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| 2:48 |
: I was pondering this one a while
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| 2:49 |
: I think that the answer is that yes, you can reduce the maximum amoutn of backspin that a hitter could put on a ball — your spin flips sign when they hit it, and so the batter has to overcome more angular momentum to impart a ton of backspin. But that’s not necessarily good? Studies have shown that hitting hte ball with TOO MUCH backspin kills distance. There’s a goldilocks zone. so this isn’t really a straightforward relationship, basically
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| 2:49 |
: How many plate appearances would it take for a high school player to rack up the amount of negative WAR Rob Refsnyder has? You can let them swing freely or tell them they are never allowed to swing, your choice. Also up to you if they play OF or just DH.
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| 2:49 |
: I’d have them play outfield, where they’d surely be awful
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| 2:50 |
: he’s a win below replacement. I think a high school player could do that in a week
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| 2:50 |
: maybe fater
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| 2:50 |
: faster*
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| 2:50 |
: In Saturday’s game, the Nats put Jacob Young in for James Wood for defense in the bottom of the 8th up 2. After they blew the lead, Wood’s spot came up with two men on in the 10th and Young flew out. Do you think this was overly aggressive to pull your best player for defense?
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| 2:50 |
: with their bullpen, yes
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| 2:51 |
: Does Cole Ragans ever pitch on a major league mound again? This will be his 3rd major elbow surgery.
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| 2:51 |
: ughhhhhh
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| 2:51 |
: what a bummer
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| 2:51 |
: I just don’t know. And like I said, what a bummer
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| 2:51 |
: Ragans has been SUCH a fun series
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| 2:51 |
: er, sorry, story
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| 2:51 |
: but yeah, the track record of guys with this many injuries is not great and I’m worried about the future
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| 2:51 |
: The LAD-SD series featured a pitcher-hitter matchup of Dreyer-Sheets. Any other fun name match ups you can remember or want to wishcast? Another fun one was Barney-Fife between LAD-CHC in like 2014 or something.
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| 2:52 |
: Dreyer-Sheets is incredible, wow
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| 2:52 |
: um, nothing’s coming to mind, but that doesn’t mean it won’t for other people in the chat, so I published this anyway
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| 2:52 |
: Burger-King was a great one I’ve seen before
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| 2:53 |
: Where would Austin Riley rank on the inverse-trade value (most underwater?) series. He hasn’t been a >120 wRC+ dude since 2023 and the savant page looks bluer by the year.
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| 2:54 |
: I don’t do an inverse trade value series b/c man, what a bummer, also who cares? But yeah, he’d be down there. it’s been arrow straight down for a few years. I’m still hopeful that he’ll turn things around to being more of a solid regular, but it’s a long deal and most of the best years of it are in the past
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| 2:54 |
: Holding-Johnson. The annoucer said “The pitchers Holding, the batter’s Johnson…”
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| 2:54 |
: Finally, after a half season of utter chaos, is the Twins’ bullpen hierarchy starting to coalesce? Yoendrys Gómez as the primary closer, Andrew Morris and Anthony Banda as the primary leverage guys, everybody else mid to low leverage? This is the most stable I’ve seen this bullpen all year
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| 2:54 |
: until the deadline, haha
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| 2:55 |
: Do you think the impeding lockout will affect the trade deadline in any way?
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| 2:55 |
: not really
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| 2:55 |
: I think that teams generally think about the now at the deadline. and if they aren’t, they think about the distant future with prospects. neither of which is affected THAT much by what might happen around missing games next season
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| 2:56 |
: If there really is a salary cap, does that change anything about the market for Skubal in free agency?
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| 2:56 |
: i mean, it sure would!
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| 2:56 |
: but given that the league has so far not actually described anything about a workable cap structure, and that their proposals so far have basically been unrealistic and meant to antagonize players (cut the lenght of deals! cut the amount of deals! limit the draft! ban young players!)
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| 2:56 |
: we have no clue what a cap would even look like
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| 2:57 |
: The league’s proposals are revenge for Skubal winning arbitration
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| 2:57 |
: right, I mean, they sure feel like they’re to make a point
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| 2:57 |
: look at all the bad things we could think of doing to player comp
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| 2:57 |
: comply before we keep naming worse ones
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| 2:58 |
: none of these are anything like workable in relation to an actual workable CBA
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| 2:58 |
: we’ll see what would happen
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| 2:58 |
: A lot of noise has been made about the proposed draft changes and how it would take money out of the pockets of players, but the one thing that appealed to me was reforming the international signing system, which has always made me a little queasy with how young guys are signed and how some teams operate in these other countries. Do you see potential for reform there in the new CBA?
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| 2:58 |
: I sure hope so. I was annoyed that there was an impasse last CBA negotiation
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| 2:58 |
: Hope you had a great vacation, Ben. Any places you went that are must-see for any visitors?
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| 2:58 |
: Kauai
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| 2:58 |
: one of my favorite places in the world
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| 2:58 |
: Brazil with a literal last minute go ahead goal!
|
| 2:58 |
: ahhhhhhh what an ending
|
| 2:59 |
: on that note, I’m gonna go hyperventilate about soccer a little
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| 2:59 |
: have a great day everyone, and a great week as well
|
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
Matt Shaw placed on the 10-day IL today for sprained L wrist
RE: Cubs / “Microbes”. I think it should more accurately be “Micro-Bears”
Re: funny pitcher-batter combos…
Bob Veale- catcher Torre
Same for Ray Lamb and catcher Torre
Also many variations of Bud Black-Rondell White (or Devon White) with guys named Brown, Dark, Black and Green.