Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/12/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: If you have some non-baseball questions (food, board games, whatever tickles your fancy), today feels like the day for them, because I am decidedly not a draft expert and we have the real draft experts doing chats and Twitch streams and infinite articles and so on

Ben Clemens: Also, home run derby questions, because I love a good derby

Ben Clemens: Let’s jump right in… with the general caveat that I’ll try to hit a few draft questions where I feel like I have at least some insight

Ben Clemens: As well as regular baseball questions, obviously

Karl Diggler: Will the Philies, with one of the easier 2nd half schedules’, have enough gas to catch the mets?  They played 500 ball against one of the toughest 1st half schedules in the league.

Ben Clemens: The Phillies really do have a markedly easier strength of schedule the rest way — we peg them at a .486 expected opponent winning percentage and the mets at .503

Ben Clemens: But uh, that’s 1.5 games difference over 81 games (if you just multiply those winning percentages by 81)

Ben Clemens: So does that help? For sure!

Ben Clemens: We have the Phillies as a .507 true talent team, but .519 against their schedule

Ben Clemens: But I don’t quite think that’s enough. The Mets are 3.5 ahead despite playing without a full complement of players for the vast majority of the first half, and they’re getting healthy

Ben Clemens: I’d rather get back the players the Mets were missing than get an easy schedule, basically

Gil: What pre-season thought/predication/hypothesis were you most wrong about? What are some things you’re keeping an eye on going forward? Basically, most curious about what sort of reflection you’re doing now that we we’re in the all-star break and how it shapes your thinking going forward

Ben Clemens: I think my estimation of the Rays was probably where i missed the most

Ben Clemens: I was really down on their pitching, basically

Ben Clemens: I think I’m just not willing to buy into Rays pixie dust enough, even as it seems like they really do have a skill for it

Ben Clemens: I think I need to be a little more believing of past team records, more or less

Joe: Is this the best home run derby field since the late 90’s/early 2000s?

Ben Clemens: I think so. I really wish we had Tatis in it but it’s going to be a blast, and having it in Coors is also going to be awesome

Appa Yip Yip: Can Robbie Ray continue to not walk people? What kind of deal is he looking at this off-season?

Ben Clemens: At this clip? Nah

Ben Clemens: But at less than 10%, let’s say? I believe

Ben Clemens: His secret? More fastballs

Ben Clemens: It’s not rocket science

Ben Clemens: He has a good fastball, he spots it better than most of his pitches

Ben Clemens: Last year’s blowup is ignorable, imo, because of the delivery change

Ben Clemens: I’d give hiim a Eovaldi-esque deal this offseason, I could see teams going higher than that

Derek: Ohtani or the field?

Ben Clemens: Oh, easy field

Ben Clemens: Ohtani is great but there are a LOT of big power hitters here tonight and you have to not lose several head-to-heads to win

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Please help, we’ve leaned into hosting gatherings now that our circles are all vaccinated, and we suddenly own Azul, Sushi Go Party, Pandemic, and Codenames: Duet. Recommendations for an easy-to-pickup competitive two-player game with some depth? Looking at 7 Wonders: Duel and Jaipur.

Ben Clemens: Oh, just easy to pick up and with replayability and depth? Easy 🙂

Ben Clemens: 7 Wonders: Duel is fun but I think I’m biased against it b/c regular 7 Wonders is so much deeper

Ben Clemens: Jaipur is fun, as is Asante (very similar game)

Ben Clemens: If you’re into history-ish games, we’ve loved Watergate, which we bought recently

Ben Clemens: One side plays as Nixon, one as the Washington Post editorial board, and it’s a partially-hidden-information game that feels replayable

Bobby: Should teams apply a discount to players switching leagues when they sign them to new contracts?  As a Mets fan I look at Lindor and think, he sucks and the Mets overpaid.  Maybe it’s because he is in a new league and don’t know the pitchers.  But do players generally perform worse when they move to a new league?

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a good offhand answer for you, and that’s something to look into

Ben Clemens: But since June 1 (to pick a random date that was easy for me to run), Lindor is hitting .262/.362/.468, a 132 wRC+, and has been worth 1.5 WAR

Ben Clemens: He’s just such a streaky hitter, because he gets so much of his value from non-homer batted balls, that I think calling him a bust or a stud based on small samples is just not gonna work well

Safety Stegosaurus: Which team is benefiting the most for getting time off from the all star break?

Ben Clemens: I kind of think the Padres. They have a lot of pitching injuries, so the rest will help the remaining guys and also get their players who are out closer to a return

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s a huge difference vs other teams though. Rest helps everyone

Derek: So with news that Ohtani is starting the ASG, do we know if MLB is going to force the AL to follow actual baseball rules and lose the DH? It probably wouldn’t matter much given bench sizes, but also… who cares about rules in the ASG?

Ben Clemens: haven’t heard anything about it, I assume they get to do whatever they want

Ben Clemens: No one cares and Ohtani is fun

A cat: Would the Snakes entertain a Marte-Downs swap with BOS, maybe with a milb-for-mlb  rp swap as well? Marte fits the BOS contender timeline as a 2B with Devers, X, Verdugo, Renfro, Duran, while Downs could prosper in a rebuild. Would BOS do it?

Ben Clemens: Boston would absolutely do it (in my opinion at least)

Ben Clemens: As you’ll perhaps see in next week’s trade value series (spoiler alert!), we think that Marte has significantly  more value in trade than Downs

Ben Clemens: I think that the DBacks are unlikely to trade Marte, actually. They don’t think they’re as bad as their record this year, and while the NLW is looking tough, you have to try to compete at some point, and their core points to competing now. If they do a complete teardown, sure, but it’s weird to trade Marte but keep most of their pre-arb/early-arb types who don’t really fit a rebuild

RAGBRAI: Brewers. First base add, third base add or just a good bat add no matter where it fits?

Ben Clemens: Good bat (though probably not at second, short, or catcher)

Ben Clemens: SO basically what you said plus outfield?

Fat Spielberg: I want to put a plug in for Forbidden Island. It’s very similar to Pandemic, but it’s simpler and we liked it better.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, if you want a cooperative game like Pandemic, totally agree

Ben Clemens: It has that ‘oh gosh everything is collapsing around me and i can only save so many things’ feel

Ben Clemens: Without feeling like you’re fighting COVID, and also with a theme I enjoy

namiki: Some players are declining to participate in the All-Star Games. How much of an effect does declining have on their recovery from fatigue?

Ben Clemens: 100% helps

Ben Clemens: They skip a flight, skip wear and tear, and probably just sit at home with cucumber wedges on their eyes

Ben Clemens: Sounds lovely

Mopete: Hey Ben, I know you’ve discussed this in the past chats but I can’t find it, can you explain why looking at average exit velocity for a hitter isn’t very useful?

Ben Clemens: What a heck of a coincidence, I’m writing about this for tomorrow as it relates to Omar Narvaez

Ben Clemens: But roughly speaking… exit velocity increases aren’t worth the same uniformly throughout the distribution

Ben Clemens: Going from 79 to 80 isn’t as valuable as going from 99 to 100

Ben Clemens: And so when you use an average metric, it treats every 1mph as the same implicitly

Derek: Ohtani is AL starting pitcher, bats leadoff in All-Star Game | The Seattle Times

Derek: They did change the rules!

Ben Clemens: Amazing, and good

Late Bloomer: If you were a gambling man, which first-half underperformer (by their superstar standards – think Mookie, Soto, Bellinger, etc.) would you bank on to have a big second-half after the break?

Ben Clemens: I am a gambling man, though not really about baseball, feels a bit strange… not to say I’ve never placed a wager, of course

Ben Clemens: But uh, SOto

Ben Clemens: By a ton

Appa Yip Yip: Important to also note that Altuve and Correa don’t have to share a clubhouse with dudes from other teams.

Ben Clemens: Honestly I can’t get that worked up about the Astros thing

Ben Clemens: It’s fine!

John Olerud’s Helmet: Dear Mr Ben, How are you? I’m fine. I highly enjoy your chats! Thank you for taking the time for them. Hope all is well! Love, John Olerud’s Helmet

Ben Clemens: What a stylish fashion decision

Ben Clemens: As well as, you know, protective equipment

Ben Clemens: win/win

John Olerud’s Helmet: Your Grace Lord Ben! First of his name! All hail thee!! Any hope for Zack Collins as a relevant starting C now that Grandal is out?

Ben Clemens: In fantasy? Sure

Ben Clemens: Not super into him in real life, the glove just isn’t there

Armadillofury: Rizzo has  a 111 wrc+ this season and a 103 wrc+ in 2020. Is this who he is now?

Ben Clemens: Blah, maybe

Ben Clemens: So lame

Padres458: Can you explain “Estimated player benefits to be paid” In the luxury tax area on the roster pages? Why is it included in the luxury tax when it isn

Padres458: when it isnt salary?

Ben Clemens: Luxury tax includes non-salary benefits like health insurance and so on

Fat Spielberg: Do the Mets really need to trade for a starting pitcher, especially if Carrasco is really (finally) joining the team this month? I hate to see them give up any prospects.

Ben Clemens: I think they could trade for a back-of-the-rotation type, but will generally stand pat

Dirty Craig: Have I pitched my last (non-exhibition) game in a Cubs uniform? Can’t see my value getting higher, right?

Ben Clemens: I’m a definite no on this

Ben Clemens: I think the Cubs are going to run it down to the deadline before trading, despite all the trial balloons they’re floating in the media about selling

Ben Clemens: They very clearly WANT to sell

Ben Clemens: But you can’t sell, then win five in a row

Ben Clemens: So he’ll pitch again before then

Guest: Do any of the guys the royals have picked day 2 justify picking frank mozzicato #7?

Ben Clemens: A periodic plug for Kevin and Eric, who are excellent draft mavens who can give you a reasonable answer on this question

Ben Clemens: I most certainly cannot, sadly

Enlightening Round: Ben, my man all things STL, have you heard of Brysen Nepute at CBC, hearing crazy velo on him as a SP

Ben Clemens: Haven’t heard anything, but yeah, not really my jam

Mr. Redlegs: Just watched Luis Urias play for 4 games against the Reds and came away really impressed with his glove at 3rd and his bat. I’d skip the 3rd base upgrade if I were the Brewers

Ben Clemens: That’s what I’d try to do with Urias, but I don’t think the Brewers are thinking that way

Ben Clemens: I thikn he’d be a totally useful 3B, but they seem to want him as a utility type more so

Highway: Newer to these parts, so not sure if y’all do this already or not: is their a trade value scale, similar to RC+? Basically, instead of asking if a team would trade this player for that player…is their a comparable scale, including age, contract, prospect status, etc….as I type this, I realize this would be too large to accomplish?

Ben Clemens: It’s staggeringly difficult to turn into a scale that you could just put on every player’s page, because a lot goes into it and it’s beyond us to dynamically generate all of that

Ben Clemens: That said, we publish a once-a-year look at who we consider to be the top 50 players when it comes to trade value leaguewide

Ben Clemens: Along with honorable mentions and so on

Ben Clemens: Based both on what we believe and checks with team sources

Ben Clemens: As fortune would have it, it’s coming out next week

Twinkies: So … uh … the Twins, what the heck?! Do they just ship out the impending free agents and try to get right in 2022 or do they go all-in on a hard reset and move Berrios, Buxton, Rogers, Duffey, Donaldson (if they can), Sano (if anyone wants him), etc.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s something in between those two, as boring of an answer as that is

Ben Clemens: I think they’d move some of the medium-term pieces (like Buxton and Berrios) if they can get some players of similar value but who are major league ready back

Ben Clemens: I’ve mentioned Nate Pearson for Berrios before, things like that

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they want to try to rebuild, and why would they? They have a lot of good major league players right now, and not a good farm system, you’re looking at a long time in the wilderness if you trade a bunch of these guys for medium prospects

Ben Clemens: Hard resetting is not some panacea that makes you automatically awesome in three years

degrominator: Any plan for Fangraphs to switch to OAA as defensive input for WAR rather than UZR. Seems to be an obviously better metric just based on what the extra information allows.

Ben Clemens: Under consideration

Fat Spielberg: The Twins are clearly the most disappointing team in baseball this year, but who is second? Yankees or Braves?

Ben Clemens: Braves, I think

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure who I would have picked before Acuna got hurt but now it must be SO disappointing to be a Braves fan

Ben Clemens: Just, ugh

joe: Who should the Yankees go get at the deadline?

Ben Clemens: I’d be very interested in Trevor Story if I were them

Fat Spielberg: I’m trying to figure out the odds of the Yankees finishing with a record of .500 or below. Can that info be found somewhere on the FG projected standings page? If so, I’m missing it.

Ben Clemens: This won’t be *perfect*, but select ‘distribution’ on the playoff odds page

Ben Clemens: It’ll show the distribution of our 10,000 simulations, as well as 25th and 75th percentiles

Derek Falvey: Not a good farm system? I have more legit-looking pitchers in AA or higher this year than the last guy had in his final 10 years combined!

Ben Clemens: Tremendous insult/compliment combination

Ben Clemens: Like, that’s true, but that says more about the last guy than the current Twins system

Ben Clemens: Most of that is because they’ve promoted good players to the majors, which is the point of farm systems!

Ben Clemens: They’ve done quite well

Ben Clemens: But those guys are already in the majors, so they’re ready right now

Mr. Redlegs: What would it take to pry Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’re particularly motivated to trade him. A top 100 prospect would get it done in my opinion, but I think you’d have to overpay the Rangers, and at that point why do it?

Ben Clemens: He’s an organizational and fan favorite

Guest: do you think eugenio suarez will have a better second half? Or is he just not very good anymore?

Ben Clemens: I definitely think he’ll rebound

Ben Clemens: I also think he’s worse than he used to be

Ben Clemens: If he’s an average hitter, that’s a big rebound

Luis Arraez: What’s my long-term role in Minnesota….it I have one?

Ben Clemens: I think you do. You’re someone we struggled with placing on the trade value list, because the bat is great but I’d rather have Fletcher or Madrigal if I wanted that type of pitcher

Ben Clemens: Hitter, whoops

Ben Clemens: My guess for the long-term role is basically what’s going on now, kind of a floating useful bat who is below average at several positions

Ben Clemens: That’s a nice player

Fat Spielberg: Will Brandon Nimmo ever make an All-Star team? Or is he too injury prone and walks/HBP not sexy enough for this to happen?

Ben Clemens: If you made it even odds, I’d take yes

Ben Clemens: I just think that he has enough pop (at times) to spike a line where it’s just too good to ingore

Ben Clemens: ignore*

Ben Clemens: Now, I don’t know if he’ll make it in the fan vote

Armadillofury: How rare are age 34 breakouts like Brandon Crawford’s?

Ben Clemens: Just, vanishingly rare

Chicago Dog: Do you think the Cubs retain any of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Kimbrel, etc. at the deadline or do they sell anything that’s not nailed down to build the next NL Central juggernaut?!

Ben Clemens: I think the most likely outcome is that they end up trading Bryant and Kimbrel but retaining Baez (who they end up re-signing) and Rizzo

Ben Clemens: Rizzo is because I just don’t see who they’d find to take him on, at his contract, and give them anything back

Guest: will cubs be willing to trade within NLC?

Ben Clemens: In a word: no

Byron Buxton: How has this year impacted my trade value and/or contract demands?

Ben Clemens: Trade value, I think it’s just made a trade vanishingly unlikely

Ben Clemens: It seems really hard to find fair value when he’s either great or hurt

Ben Clemens: And the greatness was truly reaffirmed this year

Ben Clemens: Contract demands, I’d just ramp them up

Ben Clemens: He’s so good when healthy!

Ben Clemens: Sorry eveyrone, making some lunch in the background

Molecular Lionel: The Reds are fun to watch. Can they be more than fun in the second half, i.e. NL Central champs?

Ben Clemens: Yes, but it’s not an easy road

Ben Clemens: One of the Cubs or Cardinals will likely threaten, and they’ll need hte Brewers to come back to earth

Ben Clemens: Not saying those two things can’t happen, but it’s hard

Dan: Does the Astros/Yankees game yesterday materially swing anything? Great theatre of course, but I’m not convinced “momentum going into the All Star Break” matters that much

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m with you

Ben Clemens: Doesn’t matter too much

Appa Yip Yip: What teams do you think will be the biggest second half risers and fallers?

Ben Clemens: I think the Yankees will be the biggest risers, unfortunately for, say, blue jays fans

Ben Clemens: Fallers, I think it’s the Cubs, because good god are they telling everyone they’re gonna sell

Ben Clemens: They want so badly to sell

Ben Clemens: So they’ll probably do it and start trying out prospects and giving random guys PT and so on

Ben Clemens: Honorable mention is the A’s, who just feel a little duct-tape-y

Ben Clemens: I think they’re a player for Story, though, which would change the calculus

Ben Clemens: On that note, guys, I’m going to call it an early day. There are a lot of good chats going on for the draft at the moment, and lots of fun stuff in general this week, and I’m pretty hungry — hence the hopping off to make lunch.  I’ll be off next week (for a wonderful anniversary trip to Mount Rainier) but might squeeze in a bonus chat later in the week as some of the trade value stuff comes out

Ben Clemens: Have a great week, and enjoy the derby