Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/30/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: We’ve got some real dreamers here, despite how late it is in the year, so let’s start with a truly optimistic question

Mike: Will Edward Olivares get regular AB’s during September? It’d be nice to see what he can do with some consistent playing time.

Ben Clemens: It’s hard to imagine a player getting more jerked around than Olivares has been on the Royals. He’s the very definition of up-and-down.

Ben Clemens: He’s crushed it in Triple-A, and I’d like to see him get some time SOMEWHERE

Ben Clemens: DH, RF, LF, whatever

Ben Clemens: Are you really gaining much by letting Hunter Dozier get 500 PA?

Ben Clemens: But I don’t know, the Royals haven’t shown any desire to get him run, so I continue to think they won’t

barney gumble: will the rays non-tender glasnow so they don’t have to pay for his rehab? if so, who do you think scoops him up?

Ben Clemens: I’ve been wondering what will happen here for quite a while

Ben Clemens: I do not think that the Rays will non-tender him, but I do think they might look to trade him

Ben Clemens: ‘do you think glasnow has positive value to tampa’ is a question I’ve asked a lot of people on slack

Ben Clemens: And yeah, even if they trade him, I think non-tendering him is just a waste of resources, not a very Rays move

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: Rank the following Bens in order of coolness: Franklin, Clemens, Bernanke, Big Ben, and Affleck.

Ben Clemens: I’ve met Ben Bernanke!

Ben Clemens: He is much cooler than me. Immaculately groomed beard.

Ben Clemens: I just wanted to bring that tidbit up. I’m otherwise dodging the question, I’m obviously less cool than any of these Ben’s

Finnegan’s SSW: When a player has a hole in their swing as big as Patrick Wisdom’s (7th best xWOBA on pitches in the middle third of the zone, dead last on pitches in the top third of the zone), what prevents pitchers from exploiting it even more frequently than they are? Is it just that pitching is really hard?

Ben Clemens: A lot of it is that pitching is really hard. I do think scouting reports get more insistent as a player really proves it, too

Ben Clemens: It’s one thing when it’s Patrick Wisdom, some dude who the Cubs called up who hit five bombs last week

Ben Clemens: You might gloss over that scouting report

Ben Clemens: But the more established he gets, the more I think pitchers (and catchers, more to the point) will try to work around it

Dayton Moore: Chances my outfield looks entirely different next year?

Ben Clemens: Depends on what you mean by entirely. I think Benintendi will still be there for sure, and Michael A. Taylor seems like a very Royals guy (having a totally fine season, wonderful signing)

Ben Clemens: And Dozier has a deal!

Ben Clemens: But I think starting those three again makes little sense

Ben Clemens: If you’re saying will 3/3 change? No

Ben Clemens: 2/3? I think the over/under is 1.5

Ben Cherington: Ben Bernanke is in no way a cool guy. A well groomed beard doesn’t make up for wanting to eliminate the social safety net or pretending like the deficit is an actual important thing to worry about.

Ben Clemens: Wild that you weren’t included in the coolness rankings

Ben Clemens: In fairness to Bernanke, lots of economists over time have worried about deficits, though I agree with you that their worries are misguided

brad penny for your thoughts: have you considered that if you were one of Roger’s kids, your name would be Ken?

Ben Clemens: I think it would be Kben, with the K silent

Steven: Is the Giants bullpen that ranks 24th in K%, but 3rd is RA9 one we should trust down the stretch?

Ben Clemens: Uh… somewhere in between those two

Ben Clemens: I like a lot of what they’re doing

Ben Clemens: Lowest walk rate in the league, very few homers allowed

Ben Clemens: They’re top 5 in FIP, for example

Ben Clemens: But I think they’re more of the 10th-best bullpen than a top 3 outfit

Zach: Is someone going to write about Bryce Harper soon? Besides the stretch he was playing hurt from getting hit in the face/wrist, he’s been 2015 level good.

Ben Clemens: Probably! We’re all looking for topics, and he’s an MVP candidate

Appa Yip Yip: What blockbuster trade would you most like to see this offseason from a purely chaos reigns point of view.

Ben Clemens: How about: Cleveland decides to completely blow it up, trading Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez in a single deal. Who gets them? The Marlins

Appa Yip Yip: Does José Ramírez ever suit up as a Cleveland Guardian?

Ben Clemens: (inspired by this!)

Jerry Dipoto: Do I go for my hallmark trading approach or use free agency to improve my team’s rotation?

Ben Clemens: I think the Mariners *should* try free agency

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll dabble in trades as well

Trevor: Do you think the Twins will give Jose Miranda meaningful at bats in September?  Having played multiple positions, which is difficult at the best of times to adjust, the kid’s bat seems ready.

Ben Clemens: I think they should give him plyaing time

Ben Clemens: It would basically be over Andrelton Simmons, I think

Ben Clemens: Which doesn’t feel great

Ben Clemens: But Simmons has been abysmal this year, and Jorge Polanco has been excellent, not like you’re going to arbitrarily bench him

Ronnie: Do you think hitters will eventually flatten their swings again to handle the high fastball, then pitchers will start pitching down in the zone again to combat that, then back and forth, on and on?

Ben Clemens: Over time, yes

Ben Clemens: I think the change where hitters value lifting the ball more is here to stay

Ben Clemens: But how that plays out in terms of what pitches they optimize against still has plenty of room to change

Brian: From the start of the season until June 22 the Padres had the best team ERA in baseball (3.10). Since that date they have the ninth worst (4.76). Explanation or coincidence?

Ben Clemens: I mean, definitely a little of both. They’ve had a really bad run of injuries, which is doing a lot of it, but Darvish looks like he was getting a sticky stuff boost

Ben Clemens: Still good, obivously

Ben Clemens: But, not quite as good

Ben Clemens: The bigger issue is that they’re doing things like signing Jake Arrieta

JB: Overall thoughts on the Mets kerfuffle? This org is a clown car of headlines.

Ben Clemens: Pretty bad look for them, though I think it’s being overblown

Ben Clemens: Todd Frazier did the same exact celebration and everyone thought he was hilaaaaaarious

Ben Clemens: But I think the team did not do a good job characterizing it, and the whole thing feels more combative than it should be

Ben Clemens: Booing the fans because they booed you can be funny in context, but it did not feel that way from the stories

Tom: Is Tommy Edman a starter long-term? At 2B or somewhere else?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s a totally fine person to have as your 6th-best player or so

Ben Clemens: If he’s your second baseman, that can’t be the highlight of your team

Ben Clemens: But if you’re pretty good at other spots and want a solid player to fill in at second, absolutely

Ben Clemens: Of note, Statcast is WAY higher on his defense than UZr, and I tend to believe it

Ben Clemens: He looks legit out there. Perhaps not Kolten Wong legit, but legit

Ben Clemens: Now, when they put him in right field? It’s terrible, and it needs to stop

Thumbs Down: Yeah but the 2017 one was the Yankees making fun of a Mets fan who was unhappy that the Yankees (playing at Citi) were doing well. Not making fun of Yankee fans booing them.

Ben Clemens: The context is different. But if Javy said ‘hey, people in New York like booing, I thought I’d get some booing in too’ no one would care. I don’t think he presented it particularly well, but Mets fans being upset about this is just stupid. Like, who cares? It’s clearly okay for the fans to boo him

Ben Clemens: And I don’t really care if he does something about it

Ben Clemens: But the team’s *handling* of it is just so tone deaf and it just always seems to be

Appa Yip Yip: Does stuff like this really happen to the Mets more often, or have we just become so conditioned to think of them as a disaster franchise we read into things more?

Ben Clemens: I think that they handle things more poorly than the average team, and the media covers them more, which makes sense b/c they have a ton of fans

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure if more goofy things happen to them, but they certianly make the ‘most’ of them

Jeff: Do you see Ty France as a 1B long term? Or can he improve his defense enough to stick at second?

Ben Clemens: I can see him being what Eric would call a ‘shift-enabled’ second baseman

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s ever going to be average there, but I think he can be good enough that teams can put him out there

Matt: What happened to José Iglesias? -20 DRS this season for a guy who has been regarded as a good defender

Ben Clemens: I think that’s a good way to make you question the magnitude of DRS

Ben Clemens: OAA and UZR agree he’s been a somewhat bad defender

Ben Clemens: And they’d both say he hasn’t changed a ton, just gotten worse

Ben Clemens: DRS thinks he’s suddenly one of the worst shortstops in years

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical!

Tommy: Do you think Kelenic can make a sophomore leap next season given how he has improved over the course of this season?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Michael: Mitch Haniger for Elieser Hernandez, who says no?

Ben Clemens: The Mariners, I think?

Ben Clemens: Like, I get that Hernandez is hyped these days, but he’s been basically just okay in his career, and a better changeup is only going to make me buy in so much. Meanwhile Haniger has injury issues but has always performed when healthy

Guest: Can Ke’Bryan up his launch rate or is this who he is?

Ben Clemens: He can, for sure. I’m not saying he will, because that’s a hard prediction to make, but look no further than Vlad for someone who put the ball in the air more frequently after years of not

Joe: How frequently can players starting hitting the ball harder. Once someone makes the majors is hard hit % likely somewhat locked in? Im thinking Victor Robles problems. Thanks.

Ben Clemens: This feels more locked in

Ben Clemens: not to say it can’t change, but particularly if you’re adjusting for angle (either the DHH style thing or for spray angle), power seems somewhat consistent

Guest: Among qualified National Leaguers, Corbin Burnes is leading in strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. Basically the sabermetric pitching equivalent of the Triple Crown — and unlike Miggy Cabrera’s Triple Crown a decade ago, this is a Triple Crown that has never been achieved previously by anybody. (The Big Train led in K and BB rates, but not HR, back in 1913. Jim Whitney, the same, in 1883. And that’s the closest anyone else has ever come.)  Corbin Burnes’ terrible BABIP numbers shouldn’t keep him from winning the Cy Young — and being an MVP contender. He is tied for the N.L. fWAR lead!

Ben Clemens: Burnes would get my Cy Young vote

Ben Clemens: But I do think that runs allowed is kind of important for the Cy Young race (bold take!)

Ben Clemens: Given that he has a 2.30 ERA, it’s not like he’s chopped liver, but you can’t just ignore what happens when the ball is put in play

Guest: Is Austin Adam’s 18 HBP in 45 innings some kind of record or what? On that note why aren’t HBP counted in Whip stats? ADAMS Has a 1.13 whip but if the 18 were added he would have a much worse Stat?

Ben Clemens: You’d have to ask the guy who created WHIP, I have no idea. It should clearly be included. I think that walk rate should actually be non-intentional walk + HBP rate, too

Ben Clemens: Is it some kind of record? Here’s an article from MLB.com about it

Ben Clemens: https://www.mlb.com/news/austin-adams-most-hit-batters-in-mlb-in-2021

Lash: Hey when! Thoughts on Báez? Am I wrong to feel like I just can’t root for him? Am I wrong to be let down in Lindor as well? But mainly Báez, he seems like an imperious cancer. Tell me I’m wrong!

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think you’re probably wrong

Ben Clemens: He’s been on some very successful teams with fans and players who liked him quite a bit

Ben Clemens: Does he not mesh with New York’s style of fandom? Perhaps not

Ben Clemens: I found NY sports fans over-sensitive when I lived there, really quick to say their players were terrible, and I can imagine that not everyone loves th at

Ben Clemens: But hey, if you don’t want to root for him, don’t

Ben Clemens: That’s part of what’s neat about baseball. you can root for whoever you want

Grant: My two cents on Cy Young: if Buehler ends up with an ERA around or below 2.00, and has 35+ innings on Burnes, that’ll be tough to beat, even if his K and BB rates are inferior.

Ben Clemens: Hard to argue with Buehler as a choice, I think he’ll definitely win. I am partial to Burnes’s sheer dominance but I obviously won’t judge anyone for voting Buehler

Steven: You ranked Trent Grisham a the 34th best trade value player in the league. Since he returned from injury 6/12 he is a 96 wRC+ hitter. I get that he looks cool playing baseball, but he hasn’t been… good at it.

Ben Clemens: You’re right friend!

Ben Clemens: I only ranked him 34th-best player because he looks cool

Ben Clemens: And no good players have ever been bad in small samples, and defense doesn’t matter

Ben Clemens: c’mon man

Ben Clemens: if you want to actually advance a case that Trent Grisham is bad, I’m very open to disagreements. But this one is not actually trying, and arbitrarily insulting me doesn’t up its persuasion factor

Brad: What sub .500 team will make the biggest splash(es) this off season?

Ben Clemens: The Nats, I think

Ben Clemens: They really need to do something

Appa Yip Yip: For things like Cy Young, and even WAR I philosophically think ERA is better than FIP because while FIP is more predictive, ERA is what actually happened and like, the results are ultimately what matter.

Ben Clemens: I can go either way on this argument

Ben Clemens: It’s something I’ve thought about quite a lot

Ben Clemens: FIP describes what happened too

Ben Clemens: Just, differently

Ben Clemens: I am partial to ERA as well

Ben Clemens: But if you have a guy whose defense was just BRUTAL

Ben Clemens: ideallsy there’d be some happy medium, which is why I like looking at a ton of stats

brad penny for your thoughts: do you think stl will finish above .500?

Ben Clemens: I do!

Ben Clemens: They always seem to

jj: What am I missing about Pitcher WAR.  Robbie Ray has both more IP and a lower FIP than Cease but Cease has more WAR. Is there a park factor messing with this? If so what is the Toronto park factor being used, seems like that would be hard.

Ben Clemens: Huh, this one looks weird!

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna level with you, I can’t quite figure this out

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely park factors, Ray has a higher FIP-

Ben Clemens: which adjusts for park

Ben Clemens: But uh, it shouldn’t be?

Ben Clemens: I have to investigate this one a little more behind the scenes

Appa Yip Yip: Ray gave up a ton of solo bombs early in the season his HR/9 was like 2 in April/may (I believe) so maybe the formula dinged him a ton early on

Ben Clemens: Shouldn’t work that way, though

Ben Clemens: Like, the full-season numbers are what matter

Steven: Grisham was never scouted as a plus defender. ZIPS & Steamer project him to be below average going forward. So if he is going to be a better than average player he has to hit. You say “good players can have bad small samples”, but it is also true that 59 games of a 121 wRC+ and GG OF defense in a strange 2020 could also be a “fine player being great in a small sample.”

Ben Clemens: So, here you’re actually trying to advance an argument, but if you’re going to fold in projections, then you need to actually fold in projections!

Ben Clemens: For example, ZiPS has Grisham with the 8th-most surplus value

Ben Clemens: And thinks he’ll hit a ton

Ben Clemens: Could that be a fluke? I’m sure it could be

Ben Clemens: But I don’t know, anything can be a fluke

Ben Clemens: Also, average-hitting CF with great defense is a perfectly fine downside expectation, and Steamer and ZiPS both think he’s above average with the bat. I just don’t think a small sample size where he’s been an average hitter despite a .259 BABIP you very conveniently ignored in your attempt to say I just picked him because he looks cool

Ben Clemens: Matters all that much

Derek: Isn’t there a weird per-pitcher run-environment adjustment happening in WAR? Well, weird to me anyway as I’ve never really taken the time to wrap my head around it. I also have almost literally no idea how much of an effect this factor has on WAR! But it could be something?

Ben Clemens: There is, but that is not the issue here, it’s a FIP- issue

Ben Clemens: Basically, the more you lower your run environment (with a lower FIP), the more the runs you prevent matter

Ben Clemens: It’s annoying to wrap your head around, but it works directionally

Adam: Dodgers decided to give their big three starters a fifth day of rest rather than line up Scherzer for next weekend’s Giants series.  Given that’s the last time the two teams meet, is this a mistake?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d probably line Scherzer up, but I don’t know, they’re really good about extra rest and they seem to believe that pays off long-term

Sad Mets Fan: Do you think Yadier Molina is a hall of famer?

Ben Clemens: I do. It’s arguably close on the numbers, but I think the combination of longevity, titles, and counting stats will put him over the top easily

Aguy: Do you think Christian Yelich is back to his pre-2020 self?

Ben Clemens: I’d say not quite

Ben Clemens: I think he’s mostly back, but without quite so much power as before

Ben Clemens: He’s on a hell of a hot streak at the moment, no doubt

Ben Clemens: But even this hot streak is below how he was FOR THE YEAR in 2019

Ben Clemens: He was just absurd in 2019

Aguy: Do you think he has a good chance to regain that power, or is he more of a doubles guy again?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s more of a doubles guy with 20 HR power

Ben Clemens: which is an absolutely awesome hitter

Derek: Who do you think wins AL ROY? Adolis obviously had the fast start but has faded quite a bit. Arozarena has had a somewhat under-the-radar very good season. Wander has been on fire but probably doesn’t end up with enough games to close the gap?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s probably Arozarena

Ben Clemens: I’m with you, I don’t think Wander has enough time to close the gap

Ben Clemens: Garcia would be another choice but I get the sense that the Astros will give him enough rest down the stretch to take him out of the race

Appa Yip Yip: Alek Manoah deserves some RoY consideration he’s been carving dudes up

Ben Clemens: He deserves some votes I think, but compare him to Garcia

Ben Clemens: He’s pitched 50 fewer innings with basically the same ERA

Ben Clemens: and a worse FIP

JP: Is there a random player from the past that you think about often? For me it’s JD Drew. That 2005 season always makes me wonder what could have been. Plus that sweet left handed swing

Ben Clemens: There’s one very specific one for me!

Ben Clemens: Placido Polanco

Ben Clemens: I thought that guy was AWESOME

Ben Clemens: He was an empty average guy for sure… not a lot of career .297 hitters with below-average wRC+

Ben Clemens: But I loved him on the Cardinals, always thought he’d be great, and then he was legit awesome for a bit in the mid-2000s

Derek: Oh and Luis Garcia! Same course as Adolis though…

Ben Clemens: Wow, I guess I should have posted this up above. That’s the Garcia I meant

Ben Clemens: Thought I’d put this into the chat

The Great Giambino: Re: metrics for Cy Young. I have the unpopular opinion that the most “famous” players should be in the HOF, stats be damned. Tell me you don’t want to see a bust of Bartolo Colon next to Jamie Moyer.

Ben Clemens: At the very least, there should be an outer tier of just fun players

Ben Clemens: Completely in agreement with you on this

Reid: 2018 Aaron Nola had 10.2 bWAR based on run prevention pitching in front of what BRef considered to be like the second worst defence of all time. He had 5.5 WAR at Fangrpahs. Not really a question, the ERA vs. FIP discussion just made me recall that 4.7 WAR difference.

Ben Clemens: I really do not like bWAR, and this is a good example of why

Ben Clemens: The defensive adjustment they make is really weird

Ben Clemens: Basically, they look at your defense’s performance on the year, and credit or debit you for it

Ben Clemens: But they don’t look at your defense’s performance BEHIND YOU

Ben Clemens: And so what happened with Nola was that he had a great ERA

Ben Clemens: and runs scored numbers

Ben Clemens: but his defense was above average behind him (when it comes to converting batted balls into outs)

Ben Clemens: They were just TERRIBLE behind the rest of the Phils’ pitchers

Ben Clemens: So he got credit for playing in front of one of the worst defenses, but also got an above-average defensive performance

Ben Clemens: double-counting

Ben Clemens: I’d prefer to use our RA9 WAR and just bag the defensive component altogether

Rick: Brad Penny for your thoughts made me think obviously of Brad Penny. I remember when he pitched in the all star game and was hitting 100 and throwing harder than he ever did. I don’t think he was ever the same after that all star game. Of course I could also not be remembering correctly. Ok, you can now go back to answering real questions 🙂

Ben Clemens: remembering some guys is always a good reason for a chat

JP: If you developed a crazy new, accurate, and representative statistic, aka this generation’s version of WAR. Would you “name” it an acronym, or name it after yourself and just call it The “BEN”?

Ben Clemens: Acronym for sure

Ben Clemens: and probably not even a backronym

Ben Clemens: lame of me, I know

Patrick Wisdom: Can I keep striking out 40% of the time and still succeed as an MLB player?

Ben Clemens: No, but I don’t think you’ll keep striking out 40% of the time either

Derek: Do you think the Tigers go after one of the big-name shortstops this offseason? They actually seem pretty close to being good, are in a relatively weak division, and have like, the biggest imaginable MLB roster hole at shortstop!

Ben Clemens: Interesting

Ben Clemens: I hadn’t considered them as a destination, tbh, but I think it makes sense

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: If next year you did nothing but watch every single Cardinals game, then at the end of the year you had to guess what each players WAR was, how close do you think you’d be?

Ben Clemens: Oh boy

Ben Clemens: So I don’t get FanGraphs, presumably

Ben Clemens: Do I get to see the stats they post in-game?

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure I’d be good at figuring out each player’s OBP, for example

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: You get no information whatsoever.

Ben Clemens: Am I allowed to keep track of their batting line?

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: No

Ben Clemens: Oh, I think I’d be kinda bad

Ben Clemens: Sam Miller wrote a great article about this actually

Ben Clemens: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18683274/in-world-stats-baseball-b…

TKDC: You’re cooler than Big Ben. It’s just a big clock. Clocks aren’t cool. And it’s British so it’s even less cool. Don’t sell yourself short.

Ben Clemens: I think British can be cool, so we’ll hvae to agree to disagree here

Someguy: Do you think Kyle Shwarber’s production is sustainable year to year?

Ben Clemens: Uh… I mean, in a word, no

Ben Clemens: But in several words, I don’t think it’s sustainable, but I do think that getting back to a 120-130 wRC+ kind of production level seems more reachable than it did last year

Ben Clemens: He’s made some meaningful gains in underlying numbers

Ben Clemens: Doing a better job elevating the ball, that kinda thing

Ben Clemens: He won’t keep hitting quite this much, I don’t think, but I feel way better now than I did going into the year

Ben Clemens: I thought he was kinda just Joc Pederson before the year

Ben Clemens: with worse D

Ben Clemens: Though to be fair I thought Joc was better than this

YardGoat: Are minor league ballpark factors available anywhere that you know of?

Ben Clemens: Ohhhh man

Ben Clemens: So baseball america calculates them in a slightly weird way

Ben Clemens: Here are theirs for 2019, for example:

Ben Clemens: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-park-factors-2019…

Ben Clemens: Bill Petti publishes a version on his github, though I haven’t read his documentation

Ben Clemens: https://billpetti.github.io/minor_league_park_factors/

Ben Clemens: But sometimes I try to calculate my own and it reminds me that it’s no fun to calculate park factors

Debate Team: Settle this argument. Most recent retiree who played his whole career with one team. Side A says Alex Gordon, who announced he was retiring end of season on 9/24/20. Side B (Aka correct), says it’s Pedroia who didn’t announce he was retiring until 2/1/21, even though he hadn’t played since 2019. What say you??

Ben Clemens: I’ll take side A actually

Ben Clemens: I think retirement should be retroactive like IL placements

Billips: Would you agree that the prospect haul that the Nationals brought in from their July fire sale was one of the best in trade deadline history, both in quantity and quality?

Ben Clemens: I dunno about the whole history of the deadline, but they’ve definitely done quite well for recent history

Sad Mets Fan: Do you think the mets will finish above .500?

Ben Clemens: I do. I think they’ll go on a tear that ends up not mattering

Ben Clemens: Because that would be funniest for the Mets

Ben Clemens: Alright, thanks for chatting with me today everyone, and sorry if I got snippy for a second

Ben Clemens: I think I was fair in my criticism but I’m not an unbiased observer

Ben Clemens: Have a great day, and week, everyone

Ben Clemens: I’ll talk to you next week.