Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/21/26
Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. We're testing out a new chat interface today, one that we'll hopefully roll out more broadly in the weeks to come. So come on, let's run it through its paces.
In a weekly transactions H2H league, would you risk rolling with Aroldis this week? I don't see why the Bosox would rush him back into action.
Yeah, I would not. For exactly the reason you said. It just feels like you're opening yourself up to some risk without enough upside back for it. You're going to feel REALLY bad if they ease him back in and you're playing him. And on the flip side, what if he's not right immediately? Can't have a 0% chance of that.
Any favorite random MLBers as we wind down the stretch, or little hopeful glimpses? I still don't believe Scott Bandura is real, even though Mo'Ne Davis went to his debut, and I nearly shed a tear during Josiah Gray's return
I mean, this guy is definitely very real, but David Freese is my all-time favorite good but not great guy who stuck around long enough for me to have fond memories of them.
Many of mine are Cardinals themed because that's when I was most strongly a fan of a single team. Pete Kozma. Bo Hart.
If we're talking current guys, well, how about Trent Harris, who I've grown inordinately fond of very quickly this year
Your piece(s) on Cade Cavalli are excellent, much more thorough and better reasoned than this. But, I think the extension boils down to: 4/47 is low risk enough it doesn't hurt if he regresses or breaks, and if it turns into 5/70, it must have worked out great for the Nats. All reporting seems like he's a truly excellent leader too. We came a long way from "sit down, boy" and we can all be grateful for that
Yeah, I think that's basically the risk management part of mine. It's a good bet even if you know he gets hurt some of the time, because on average you get a nice amount of value out of signing him. I leave the leadership stuff aside – I agree with you that it's widely reported that way, I just think that those types of things are extremely subjective and don't hold over long periods of time anyway.
A while ago, I remember listening to a BP podcast in which they were talking about christopher morel, the gist of the discussion being "it's okay to acknowledge when a guy is probably having their career year." Are there any candidates in 2026 for guys you think hit their apex production this season?
Love this one. Some easy ones for me: Otto Lopez. PCA. Gabriel Moreno. Randy Arozarena. Jake Bauers.
I don't mean any of them ill by that. But I just think a ton of stuff broke well for those players in their years, and that it feels hard to have all of that plus more hit right in a future year for them to eclipse it. You can still be a very good player after hitting your apex production
Does Tatis have an MVP season in him?
Whether he actually wins one? who can say. Whether he has the capability to? Clearly yes. He's played at an MVP level for half of this year, for example. The talent is definitely there. Winning an MVP is tough because you have to have it hit for a whole year when no one else hits their even better outcome.
Think the A's can hold onto a winning record against every AL west team this season? Just need to not lose series vs Angels and Astros
I do. I think that'd be a pretty cool footnote on what was just a real bummer of a season. Kind of a hilarious one, too. The AL is a mess this year.
The Red Sox should start Tolle in game 1 in The Bronx. The reality is that the Red Sox look outmatched and his personality fits the occasion perfectly and a few quick K's could change the mood.
I like the idea of starting Tolle game one. I feel crazy saying this, but I kind of like the idea of just starting three lefties and daring the Yankees to play their righty platoon bats, kind of gambling on Judge being less than 100%
Holy crap, I dig the new chat interface so far. No login issues!
Great to hear. Sean and team are still working on adding functionality (polls, images, that kinda thing) but I have been liking the clean look and it gives us more flexibility on our end
a little more legible and the scroll bars are nicer. Setting up the chat has more options. Basically this just has more options across the board. Oh, and I love the little FanGraphs icon by my name, so fun
How does the new chat interface differ on your end? Are questions organized differently than before?
so, there's something I'm still getting used to, published those two out of order
where does Yordan rank among unlikely batting title winners? (assuming he holds on)
Nowhere near the top. He has a career .300 batting average! Among big league regulars, only Luis Arraez, Chandler Simpson (small-ish sample), and Jose Altuve are better
I can't get over the fact that either the Guardians or the White Sox will, most likely, receive a bye in the first round while whoever wins the AL West plays the team that finishes second but gets the home field against a team with a better record. I don't want to pour cold water on the new interface but the submission box is too small to handle more than two lines of copy.
Great feedback on the submission box. That sounds like an easy fix to me, I'll let Sean know.
As to the playoff system, yeah, I agree that this is a problem. I really like the bye system we have at current. It gives a reward for teams that have great regular seasons. But I agree that the divisional system interacts awkwardly with it. What if they handed out playoff spots the way they do now but pre-reseeded, ordering teams by record? I'm totally with you that it's a good idea that feels obviuosly unfair in practice.
Pitchers having their best year: Nick Martinez, Luzardo, Messick, Louis Varland, Martin Perez some candidates that leap to mind. (Don't say the Miz, don't say the Miz, don't say the Miz)
I don't think the Miz counts. Like, yes, he's having an extremely good year. But he could throw more innings. the strikeouts don't look crazy unsustainable. it COULD be a career year but it doesn't feel like a blow-off top (a finance term I love and have been trying to use more of late) in the way that, say, Otto Lopez does
Submission box – The default seems small, but click/hold and drag the little thing in the bottom right corner and you can make it very large.
We are going to fix that once this chat is over. Thanks everyone for the feedback! – Sean
Martinez doesn't count because this isn't even his best year! He had his career year in 2024 in Cincy. Luzardo, same kinda deal, he's basically repeating last season. probably not 'career year' territory. I definitely agree with you on Varland, don't think Messick is really fair since he's a rookie, and Martin Perez got a qualifying offer once!
My own list would have: Reid Detmers, who I think is good but not this good. Sean Burke, though without much conviction there. And Foster Griffin.
will spencer jones be overmatched by playoff level pitching?
If by overwhelmed you mean he'll strike out a lot, absolutely yes. He's a high-strikeout guy and the octane of pitchers ramps up int he playoffs. But it's not like he hasn't faced hard pitches in the regular season or in the minors. His game is tons of strikeouts and sometimes the ball leaves the yard. One playoff homer or so and we'llb e like man, this guy has it. And since homers are pretty rare events, it feels like Jones could be basically the same hitter and based on whether he happens to run into one or not we'll say he just didn't have it or performed as expected.
Who do you think starts Brewers playoff game 3, and how many innings do they get? 3 innings of Gasser or Drohan, maybe? Does May ever start a game with his recent inconsistency?
I think that some kind of piggyback situation is reasonable here. Like, three of Drohan with May backing him up? Or some other lefty/righty switch of that style. I'm extremely curious to see how they deploy Harrison.
I really don't know what you do with Harrison. Like, he's been so bad recently! But he has such high highs. The test in relief hasn't gone all that well so far. It's not like they can afford to just not have him pithc, he was a big part of their run prevention this year.
Sorry, I missed an answer before messing around iwth the interface. I meant to say that Harrison is the highest-unceratinty question in the entire playoff picture for me. The Brewers were the best team in baseball this year and Kyle Harrison was a ton of that. What are they going to look like with less good pitching? Can they figure out what ails him in time? I have no clue but I'm very excited to find out.
Maybe dumb question. When Team A is one game ahead of Team B in the standings and also holds the tiebreaker on Team B, it's often said that they effectively have a two-game lead. But is there a similar way of describing the situations of the Astros and White Sox, who are one game back in the standings but hold the tiebreaker over the team ahead? Like are they effectively 0.8 (or something) games back, rather than one? (I know this is accounted for by magic numbers, just wondering if there's a simple way to describe this situation.)
I'd say they're one back with the tiebreaker. Or alternately that they're 'effectively only a half game back' because of the breaker. I agree with you that the wording is kind of tricky, though. You can't say they're 'effectively tied', that's not true. If they hvae the same records they won't make the playoffs
No question really. Just a frustrated fan with few places to vent. If the owners lock out the players next season, and we miss one single game, I will not go to a single game next year, nor will I buy the MLB TV package. I Wii continue to support this site
Nomar, we appreciate your continued support, of course. That's very kind. And honestly, I feel pretty similar. I think the owners are more to blame than the players for the upcoming fight we're sure to have. I don't feel great about anyone's role in this though. There's so much freaking money in baseball. Work it out between yourselves like adults so that we the fans, who pay a ton of money to enjoy your product, can still get it. No one is on our side in this negotiation, and that makes it feel bad
Thoughts on the NL RoY race? Seems like everyone gave it to Sal Stewart when JJ went on the IL, but Stewart has had a rough September. fWAR is 4.4 to 2.2 in JJ's favor.
So, I've had JJ all along. I just don't really buy the arguments that some counting numbers matter so much that they're more important than the overall picture. I'm not saying Stewart's homers don't matter or anything. Obviously they do. But eh, the RBI's, I'm not as convinced by, because a stat like RE24 (which cares about driving in runs, but also cares about how many opportunities you had to drive in runs) says Stewart was about 10 runs better with the bat than Wetherholt this year so far.
That's not a ton of runs better. And again, that accounts for the RBI and the homers and all. And if you care about win probability – as in how important those RBIs were – Wetherholt actually has a BETTER bat than Stewart
Also he's a plus defender at an important position instead of a first baseman who defensive metrics aren't fond of
Like, I get the sentiment. And I get wanting to push back against WAR and be like 'no the old stats we love still matter'
There are times where I think that's true! I'd vote for Yordan by a mile for AL MVP, and it's because I think that his offensive value is so high that WAR is overly penalizing him for his defense. no one cares when you hit that well. BUt that's not Sal Stewart's case.
Don’t like the new interface, all my questions are still poorly thought out and badly edited. Thought it would have fixed that.
That's coming in FanGraphs 2.0 :)
Regarding last week's lack of any questions about lunch, I think we all figured someone else would ask. Of course, when that happens, you make a "fig" out of "u" and "re," or something like that. Whatever the case, I hope you have a good lunch planned today.
Why thank you. It's like House said once, I think: That's what happens when you make a presumption. You make a pres out of you and some guy named umption.
As for lunch, leftovers from a very nice salmon dish that a friend of ours cooked this weekend.
Piggybacking on Nomar's comments, why do you think that both the owners and the Union seem to pretty much refuse to let the situation continue. Why do both sides feel like something needs to change?
Many possible answers to this. I think the most important, for me, is that they'd act this way even if they thought that 'no change' was acceptable, because that's how bargaining well in advance of a deadline works. So I'm hopeful that when the rubber meets the road, both sides will cave simultaneously.
Thank you for the chat Ben. The Tigers have to feel good about former top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark thriving in their first big league action this year. Wondering though if you have any thoughts on any of the "other" Tigers rookies who have been getting run down the stretch? Personally, I have loved watching the energy guys like Hao-Yu Lee and Eduardo Valencia have brought; and Ben Malgeri and Brett Callahan have at least looked like quality defensive outfielders (at least compared to some of the butchers the Tigers have put out there). Do you think any of this group could succeed/thrive in closer to a full time role next year?
Truthfully I don't think I've seen enough of any of them to be all that sure, but I do think that they did enough that if I'm the Tigers, I'm interested in leaving some space for the minor leaguers to have bigger roles next year. Like, leave an outfield hole perhaps?
Are we sure the Sox' best option, with Rafaela back, isn't Anthony in right and Gasper/Jones at DH? I'm not really believing in Duran right now.
This seems like possibly the best option, but their behavior year to date basically tells me they won't be doing this. Or, well, assuming you mean Anthony in left, I like Abreu in right.
Would you even put Harrison on the roster if you were Milwaukee? He looks unplayable at the moment. Maybe overreaction, but, you also can't just punt a playoff game like they can a regular season game.
I mean, I would. If I thought playing Harrison was punting a game, I wouldn't put him on there. But I kind of think that you need to give yourself chances to have your best possible team. And c'mon, if he's awful for two innings and you yank him, I think that's short of punting the game. I think that not rostering him would basically be playing too conservative. You should try to hit your high-upside outcomes to win in the playoffs, imo
Following up more on the lockout question…I think implicitly I'm assigning the probability of missing any games to be low, definitely less than 10%. Commentators throwing around the possibility of losing the whole season seem nuts to me–isn't that obviously suicidal from a business perspective? Where do you stand on probabilities of losing any games/a significant number of games/the whole season?
I'm at least close to you on this one. I think I have the odds of missing games very low and the odds of missing a season at pretty close to zero. I just don't think the owners have the collective will. I don't think the players do either, when push comes to shove.
After the Bregman injury, should MLB enforce the rule that on deck hitters should be in the on deck circle? I remember a few years ago when they did that and the batter (I think it was Beltre) moved the actual circle to where he was standing. He may have been ejected.
No, because clearly this enforcement wouldn't stick and no one likes feeling either like a nanny or like they're being nanny stated by the umpires. The Beltre thing was a while ago at this point I think? But a specific umpire told him to get back in the circle so he moved it. It wasn't at the same time as an enforcement push or anything, if I'm remembering correctly.
Boston’s about to sail to the WS, no? Easy opponent after easy opponent ahead of them
A jinx? A stealth insult? Who knows, let's hit publish.
i would be very happy if this is not Pete's peak. I dream of 12 war PCA.
Haha right? That one was kind of a gimme just because it's SO hard to imagine a better season.
Is Kyle Harrison at risk of not even making the playoff roster?
Didn't realize that this was less of a fringe opinion and more of a 'thing people are thinking'. I guess that I underestimated it. I don't really think that it's likely because he's good! Clearly capable of dominance. But the Brewers have a lot more granular data and maybe they really do think he's cooked for the moment. I just…. c'mon, the guy was so good earlier this year, and if you leave him off the playoff roster in the NLDS, you're never bringing him back on, you're accepting that you're just playing without this big important piece. I just hate settling like that.
Dider Fuentes is rolling as a mid-reliever, but do you think the Braves should stretch him back out into a starting role next year a la Strider?
I think they'll try, realize that he's better in this current role, and move him back. They should try even if they don't think it'll work. The odds of it working are obviously not zero and he'd be more valuable by a lot if it stuck
If you had to sit down and name every baseball player you can think of how many names could you get to?
Oh man. Hundreds. Probably a thousand? I think I'd get tired before I ran out of names. Playing OOTP for many years, and Perfect Team in particular (Paul Sporer curates the sets over there and does an incredible job of finding fun old players) has given me a big memory bank of names
Holy crap, am I able to submit a question as a logged in FG member? That's the first time in months.
What you do suspect the Braves will do with Profar's contract after two long term suspensions with one year remaining (which isn't far off from a qualifying offer)? I can't imagine AA getting much of anything for him
Oh yeah…. I think they'll either cut him or trade him eating all the money for a lottery ticket.
Tebow sighting yesterday btw! At the Broncos Jags game. Florida man with Denver connections, makes sense.
Yes, by right I meant left, sorry, and thanks. Also, Sean, can we bring back the thing where your own question is blue? That was both pleasurable and, particulalry when illicitly following the chat on a phone at work, useful.
putting this in the log so Sean can see it too. I didn't even know about that feature. See, this is why it's good to test things.
Do you think the Mariners can fix their defense this offseason? Seems like they hit a little worse than expected, and the team imploded because their defense is terrible.
I do think this is fixable. I think it might kind of fix itself, to be honest. Their worst defenders by FRV are Crawford and Arozarena, both FA's. Luke Raley was bad in right before he got hurt, but he was also just not great overall, they're surely looking for better options. TO me, it looks like they're set up to improve on defense without even focusing on it specifically, just from the change in team composition.
Do the Cardinals test the trade market for Herrera this offseason and could they even get a good return? Burleson seems to be the First Basemen for the next few years and I can't see Herrera staying behind the plate with his subpar defense and the glut at catcher coming through the system.
I think that they'll test the trade market, and I think they will definitely get a good return if they decide to trade him. I think that zero-ish other teams see him as a catcher, though. I see him as a 1B/DH who can maybe be an emergency catcher, I didn't like the way the Cards kept tring him at catcher even after the writing was on the wall, at least to me.
But when I was bouncing players off of my sources this summer and talking about Herrera as a fringy name, probably not top 50 trade value but surely top 100, people didn't have much to say about that eitehr way, which suggests to me that it's roughly right. Good plus bat, might benefit from not having to play catcher so often, cost controlled for a while. Teams would be interested in this for sure. He has a batting line 20% above average for his career and doesnt' cost much; the pitch sells itself.
how much has nimmala rose post trade deadline
This is really more of a question for the prospect guys than for me but his stock is clearly up, impressive performance in Double-A at 20. I am not sure he's their starting shortstop on opening day next year because Neto is awesome and I'm not sold on a move to third base being inevitable. But I think that he's clearly arrow up from what we thought of him at the deadline. Good trade for the Angels. Might be a win-win, I think Soriano is gonna play well in Toronto next year, but the Angels have 100% done well there.
re: Dider Fuentes. The question to ask is not whether or not he'll be better as a reliever. MOST pitchers are. That's why they get put there in the first place. The question to ask is will Fuentes be able to thrive in a 5+ innings role or not.
Concur with this. And my thinking there is that if you're being honest with yourself, it's not certain whether he'll thrive in a 5+ inning role but he certainly hasn't ruled it out with his performance. Particularly if the Braves feel good about his feel for the splitter, which he's basically been able to mothball in relief but would surely need to add back in as a starter, I think it'd be crazy NOT to try. He's 21 and destroying major league hitting and came up as a starter.
Thanks for the chat! Is Robert Gasser a starter next year? According to Roster Resource he is their 5th starter. Has he shown to have the stuff to move up?
Yeah, the Brewers always use a bunch of starters interchangeably throughout the year but I have no reason to think he won't be one of them.
If you were the Jays would you try to extend Soriano?
I would. The weird part is the timing – like, if they haven't started on it now, I doubt they're getting it done before the lockout unless both sides really want it. So is it a next year post lockout kinda thing? Maybe. But I am generally a fan of trying to sign contract extensions when it makes even a little sense, and this one clearyl makes some sense.
What are the Red Sox going to do? They're going to have some money to spend, but there really isn't a clear hole on the roster except for SS, where they surely would not sign someone that blocks Arias, if there were even any good free agent shortstops.
This isn't a great year to spend money, it's looking like. But that suits them just fine – like you said, there isn't a super clear hole on the roster aside from shortstop. And for me, backup at 3B because I dno't quite believe Durbin's torrid stretch. But I think I'd just be willing to keep some powder dry, basically. I think we've discussed their payroll situation some in recent weeks; it's really well set-up for next year, very few players leaving. Maybe they try to work out another year of Sonny Gray, maybe they just top up on pitching, but this is a great year to not need a bunch of players in FA, because the FA class is not good. I don't think they need to overcomplicate things too much – they went hard last winter, they can cool it this winter.
Who do you have emerging in this final week between TEX and HOU?
Houston because they're like the bogeyman, they always seem to keep coming even when you think they're done. But no strong lean
Also another note: it would be nice to make `Your questions awaiting the host` collapsible
Noted.
If you're the Red Sox, do you tank this week and hope to get WC#3 instead of WC#2? Almost certainly not catching NY for WC#1, and road games against AL West and AL Central winners sound much better than road games against Yankees and Tampa.
A few people asked versions of this earlier, I happened to like this phrasing most. But I'm answering all of your questions. No. I'd be happy if that happened, but I would not mess with wanting my good players to play well a week before the playoffs, for marginal gain. Matchups matter, but only so much, and there's no guarantee.
I do not understand why teams don't see players like Herrera as a potential career DH and as a very valuable third catcher. Mickey Gasper is presently showing just how valuable that type of player is even if doesn't keep hitting at this level. When a team has two catchers it really only has one but with three all can be used freely.
Oh I 100% agree. I think this is a leak among teams. And Herrera hits well enough, or at least projects to hit well enough, that you're not sacrificing offense anywhere, it's just free-ish value.
Do you think Luzardo's injury means he's just a glorified opener (or maybe gives you 2-3) in the WC/DS? If so, is there an argument for turning him into a late inning fireman instead?
I am unsure, but I am leaning towards him having very short starts, at which case yes, I'd prefer him as an impact reliever. I don't know if he is ready to warm up and play in that role, though, and given his at-times-injured past and his contract, if I'm the Phillies, I want him to give me a strong sign that he's interested in this role and thinks he'd do well at it
Okay everyone, this was a wonderful chat, but now I'm going to go have that aforementioned salmon and start working on an article for tomorrow.
Thanks for all the great questions, and for helping us test out the new chat interface. May the last week of the regular season be delightful for you, and let's get ready for the playoffs.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
Ugh, this nonsense.
One, dismissing both the owners and players as juvenile and/or childish is pretty arrogant.
Two, what the hell does “like adults” even mean? Have you seen adults lately? We’re not exactly good at working things out amongst ourselves.
Three, why should we (meaning fans) have a say in their negotiations? I don’t get a seat at the table at any other labor negotiation, no matter how much money I contribute to the continued operation of the specified business. I’d have a lot more respect for this statement if you admitted that your own financial interests are involved here — can’t imagine it’s great for your line of work if MLB closes up shop for a year or three.
I hope that isn’t your real name.
Stu, the name seems accurate.
Oh, it is. I am more than willing to accept being a fun-hating dork.
Fun-Hating Dork, you said it: These ARROGANT ELITIST fantasy baseball writers making MILLIONS OFF FANGRAPHS don’t want a lockout only so they keep getting their LUCRATIVE PAYCHECKS! Brilliant, FHD. Next, let’s expose chemtrails.
Your version of my post sounds way more interesting than what I actually posted.
I will point out all of the following:
But, man, you totally took that strawman down. Kudos!
You’re a fine one to be criticizing arrogance.
Not sure where this comes from. If someone says something that is an arrogant statement, is it arrogant to point that out?
Or is it arrogant to point out that he has a vested financial interest in addition to any personal interest he has in the game?
I’m not trying to be sarcastic here, I’m actually confused where you get arrogance from.
A note of feedback on the new chat look (this is referring to the published version of the chat not the new live interface): maybe it’s just these aging eyes, but I find that the background color behind Ben’s responses makes the text hard to read.
I’m on mobile fwiw.
Love that you guys are always looking for new ways to improve the site. ❤️