Braves Acquire Matt Olson as Freeman Replacement in Blockbuster Swap

Baseball’s second stab at an offseason continues at a brisk pace with the biggest move yet this week, a blockbuster trade that sees the A’s send first baseman Matt Olson to the Braves in a five-player deal. Atlanta didn’t get off lightly, parting with outfielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers (who were Nos. 72 and 70, respectively, on our preseason Top 100 prospects list), and pitchers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes to whatever the heck they’re calling the stadium in Oakland this year. (We’ll have much more on those four prospects coming later from Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein in a separate post.)

Fresh off a new collective bargaining agreement, the A’s have let it be known that they’re ready for business in no uncertain terms. While there was no obvious requirement to trade Olson quickly — he’s two full seasons away from hitting free agency — Oakland would be hard-pressed to get an even larger package than this. I’d personally like to see the franchise actually keep one of its stars past the point at which the team can get market value, but if you’re determined to trade Olson, I can’t think of a much better situation. Many teams need first base help, and with 15 designated hitter jobs now needing to be filled in the National League, help on the easier end of the defensive spectrum comes at a premium. If you want to add a first baseman in free agency, you basically have one superstar (Freddie Freeman), one good player (Anthony Rizzo), and an interesting slugger that you’re not quite sure is a full-time option at the position (Kyle Schwarber) to choose from before the talent pool becomes a waterfall.

The sad part of the trade from the Braves’ perspective is that this essentially closes the door on the Atlanta portion of Freeman’s career. While the team could theoretically re-sign him and play either him or Olson at DH, both are solid first baseman, with Olson a deserving Gold Glover, and neither may be too keen on abandoning a part of their skillset, given a choice. I also have the feeling that if the Braves were comfortable paying both Freeman and Olson, they likely would have bowled their incumbent first baseman over with an enormous offer a year ago. I warned back in September that despite the feeling at the time that Freeman would likely return, it would be dangerous to assume that until he actually signed.

If you’re replacing Freeman, Olson is a good way to go about it. In light of the associated risk with being the oldest of the elite first basemen, ZiPS projects Freeman to slip to fourth in baseball in WAR at the position, though still at the level of a star. Two of the three players ahead of him in the projections are almost certainly unavailable to the Braves: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Pete Alonso. The other player is Olson.

There are no specific reasons to expect Olson to play below All-Star level beyond the usual risks that any terrific player has (injury, fluky BABIP, freakishly poor season out of the blue). He set career highs for both home runs (39) and batting average (.271) in a poor hitters’ park, putting up his first five-WAR season. ZiPS doesn’t project much of a change in his overall value from Oakland but does see an uptick in his raw stats, projecting him to hit new career highs in both homers and batting average, though not WAR.

As painful as it seems, Atlanta has a better argument for signing Olson, who’s five years younger, over Freeman to a long-term deal, from the cruel actuary’s perspective. With two more cost-controlled years, ZiPS projects a $142 million deal over seven years as a reasonable offer to send to Olson’s camp, should the Braves want to close a deal quickly. As with Freeman, they could go higher, both because they’re the top contender in a division with at least one big spender and because they certainly have the money to do so. There doesn’t appear to be any conditional window for the Braves to come to a long-term contract agreement with Olson, so they could close a deal next week, next year, or never.

While the Braves get a lot, the A’s aren’t letting them swap a rusty Chevrolet Celebrity for the sports car. Pache’s star hasn’t gone white dwarf, but after seeing his outlook worsen considerably over the last two years, his prospect status is certainly burning helium instead of hydrogen. Though his glove is center still looks to be excellent, he’s offensively probably behind where he was in 2019. His cup of coffee in Atlanta last year was abysmal, like an espresso served in an ashtray, as he hit .111/.152/.206 with 25 walks against only two strikeouts over 68 scattered plate appearances [or the much less exciting 25 strikeouts against two walks -DS]. His Triple-A performance was more typical but only looked like his Triple-A debut in 2019. Combine his major league performance and minor league translation, and ZiPS sees his line in 2021 as .211/.267/.344.

Now, that’s not exactly an exciting projection, but at 23, Pache still has some time left to get back on one of the better career paths. Even if he doesn’t, he may still be the new Jarrod Dyson, which isn’t a bad scenario, though at least a mildly disappointing one.

ZiPS may not be bullish on Pache, but it is when it comes to Langeliers. Back in 2020, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked him No. 8 on their preseason Braves list, with the hope that his power potential would eventually manifest after his recovery from a broken hamate bone. It didn’t happen that year, for reasons I’m sure I don’t have to reiterate, but given a full, healthy season in ’21, Langeliers exploded, putting up an .836 OPS and seeing his home run count surge from two to 22. ZiPS translates his 2021 season as .239/.294/.440 — respectable for a catcher. But unlike a lot of power-hitting backstops, his glove is a feature, not a bug.

ZiPS already thinks Langeliers is a legitimate starter in the majors; a repeat of 2021 would send his projection soaring. In Oakland, there’s the problem of the A’s already having a solid starting catcher in Sean Murphy, but in two years, he’ll be two years from free agency. I’m just saying…

Like Chase Petty, another 2021 first-round pick traded the last few days, Cusick is a very hard thrower with limited professional experience. He’s older and so likely a bit safer than Petty but did have occasional command lapses in college. Estes is not as highly touted as the other prospects in this trade, but he has a reasonably deep repertoire consisting of a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a decent slider, and a change and curve that are still a work in progress. ZiPS sees him peaking somewhere in the one-win range, which is actually a pretty good result for the last prospect in a big trade, and the A’s have had success producing average-ish starting pitchers almost by assembly line.

To sum things up, if the A’s were determined to trade Olson, I don’t think they were likely to get a better return than this at any point. And for the Braves, they made sure that they’ll have a star first baseman in the middle of their lineup, even if it also feels a bit bittersweet because of what it represents.