Braves Add Speedy Mallex Smith to Their Lineup

In this week’s third unexpected outfield prospect callup, the Atlanta Braves summoned speedy outfielder Mallex Smith from Triple-A to replace the injured Ender Inciarte. Smith’s been on a tear lately. He slashed an outstanding .346/.393/.808 in spring training, and had a loud three games in Triple-A to start the year. It seems that was enough to convince the Braves he was ready for the next level.

Smith split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .306/.373/.386 with an eye-popping 57 steals. In 2014, he lead all of organized baseball with 88 stolen bases. Smith’s control of the strike zone and lofty BABIPs result in high OBPs, which allows him to take full advantage of his top-notch speed. Power is the one piece that was missing from Smith’s offensive profile, but just about everything else is there.

Still, despite his strong 2015 campaign, Smith received very little love from prospect evaluators last winter. No major outlet ranked him in their top 100. Lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth ranked him as the 10th-best prospect in the Braves system, giving him a FV of 45 — roughly equivalent to a fourth outfielder. Farnsworth voiced concerns about Smith’s defense:

That speed only helps him so much in the field currently, since he takes crooked routes to balls and doesn’t change directions well. The potential is still there for him to play an excellent center field, but the reads will have to drastically improve.

He was also suspicious of Smith’s offensive approach.

At the plate, his minor league numbers have been fueled by less-skilled fielders pumping up his BABIP. He has a ground-ball/low line-drive swing with next to no power. His speed will give him some doubles and triples, and he does possess pretty good contact skills. His plate discipline needs improvement for him to continue getting on base enough to start, since right now he is more patient that selective. Big league pitchers will be able to attack him more efficiently.

The scouting community isn’t particularly high on Smith, but KATOH — my prospect projection system — loves him. It ranked him 16th overall heading into the year, and projected him for 8.6 WAR over the next six seasons. KATOH sees a 22-year-old who hit well in the high minors and also stole a butt-load of bases. There are plenty of ways a player like that can provide value for his team: at the plate, in center field and on the base paths.

To put some faces to Smith’s statistical profile, let’s go ahead and generate some statistical comps for the speedy centerfielder. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis Distance between Smith’s 2015 season and every Double-A and Triple-A season since 1990 in which a hitter recorded at least 400 plate appearances. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar.

Interestingly, most of these players aren’t all that similar to Smith. For example, Rich Becker, Troy O’Leary and Shin-Soo Choo all ran wild in the minors and posted similar strikeout and walk rates to Smith, but they all had significantly more power. Juan Pierre matched Smith’s speed/power profile, but also put nearly every ball in play. Smith, on the other hand, draws his share of walks and also strikes out on occasion. The only player here who really feels like a decent comp for Smith is his top comp, Jason Tyner. And a Jason Tyner comp absolutely feels like an insult.

But should it? Tyner was a first-round pick after all, and was a pretty well-regarded prospect back in the day. Tyner was a terrible hitter — he hit .275/.314/.323 in the steroid era — but he was never supposed to be much of a hitter. He was supposed to make his bones with his speed and defense, but never did. Our defensive metrics (including the positional adjustments) have him at just +5 defensive runs total through his age-28 season. I don’t want to make this about Jason Tyner, because nobody wants to read about Jason Tyner. But my point is that a version of Tyner with a modicum of power who can properly utilize his speed could be a useful player.

We more or less know what Smith is at the plate. Maybe his .463 spring-training ISO is a sign that he’ll drive the ball a bit more going forward, and maybe not. Either way, he’ll likely never be much of hitter. Steamer projects Smith for a .258/.314/.341 slash line this year, which works out to just an 82 wRC+.

But given his top-notch speed, Smith won’t necessarily need to hit much, so long as he provides value in other ways. Pair an 82 wRC+ with scratch defense in center and good base-running, and you have roughly a one-win player. Pair it with above-average defense and you have a solid regular. If Billy Hamilton can rack up 6 WAR over two seasons with a 68 wRC+, one could easily imagine Smith approximating that with an 82 clip.

The X-factor for Smith, though, is his defense. KATOH looks at Smith’s gaudy stolen-base totals and thinks he’ll be an asset on defense. But since KATOH doesn’t take into account minor-league defensive metrics (yet), it doesn’t know Smith isn’t the defender he should be given his speed.

Could Smith ultimately be a strong defender in center field? Sure, plenty of outfielders have done so with much less than 80-grade speed. Though, as of last season, Smith wasn’t quite there. Dan’s comments about Smith’s unendearing outfield play are borne out in the data as well: Baseball Prospectus’ minor league FRAA pegged him as roughly a league-average center fielder in the minors last year. He was well below average in 2014.

If Smith learns to harness his 80-grade speed, he could easily rack up 2+ WAR year after year a la Billy Hamilton. If he doesn’t, well, that’s what most scouts are afraid of. A Mallex Smith with iffy defense may not be good enough to hold down an everyday job. In other words, think Jason Tyner with a tad more power.