Braves Dump Risk, Exchange It for Risk
Update: the Braves are reportedly also sending Bronson Arroyo to the Dodgers, which works out to saving about $8 million. So, that’s a small benefit for Atlanta, which isn’t discussed below.
—
Update No. 2: the Dodgers are taking on some of Arroyo’s money, but not all of it. So the Braves are saving less than that $8 million. Glad we could get this straightened out.
—
A valuable lesson we all learned yesterday is that a trade isn’t official until it’s officially official. In the case of this trade, it still isn’t totally complete, so, who knows? Something else we’re aware of is that the structure is complicated. As the Braves, Dodgers, and Marlins work through their three-way exchange, this seems like the current picture of the Braves’ side of things:
Get:
- Hector Olivera
- Paco Rodriguez
- Zachary Bird
- Competitive balance draft pick
Lose:
Because it isn’t official, it could always fall apart. Alternatively, it could always change its form. Beyond that, even if this does go down as understood, there are plenty of moving parts. Real people, having their lives changed in an instant! A draft pick, just after the first round! So what I’m about to do is over-simplify, but what this is really about, from the Braves’ perspective, is swapping Wood and Peraza for Olivera. The rest of it more or less cancels out, given the cost of relievers at the deadline. The Braves, perhaps, weren’t comfortable with the risk of keeping Wood and Peraza around. They’re more comfortable with the risk of Olivera, who they tried hard to sign only a few months back.
At first glance, this seems like an insufficient return. Peraza’s young, and he entered the season as a top-50 prospect. Baseball America’s midseason update put him at No. 26. That was a ranking between Raul Mondesi and David Dahl, a few slots ahead of Jeff Hoffman. Wood, meanwhile, is a big-league-proven starting pitcher, who’s had some excellent stretches, and who’s going to be cheap for a while. Olivera is 30, and he still doesn’t have 100 professional trips to the plate. He recently spent time on the disabled list, and health questions have long lingered around. If you don’t like the Braves’ side, this is the whole argument. They gave up too much control for an older player who has yet to prove anything. Certainly, the Dodgers are pleased.
But the Braves have their reasons for doing this, and it goes beyond just being fans of Olivera. There’s a sense there was danger in hanging on to Peraza. And the same goes for Wood. If the Braves felt like Peraza and Wood would only diminish in value, then it makes sense to move them now. And if they think Olivera’s about ready, then, sure, he’s 30, but he’s not 35 or 36. It’s not like he’s on the verge of retirement.
Peraza is 21 years old. He’s spent the year at Triple-A, and 21-year-olds in Triple-A are either good prospects or emergency call-ups. That’s the starting point. He’s super fast, and that speed’ll be with him for a while. Peraza makes a lot of contact, and he’s made a smooth transition from shortstop to second base. Problems? He’s still short of ten career homers. And he’s drawn 12 unintentional walks all season. Peraza is a ball-in-play sort, not a disciplined sort, and if he has power, he’s just about never shown it. His offensive ceiling, then, is questionable, as high-level competition could exploit his weaknesses.
If you want to give him a lot of the benefit of the doubt, maybe his hit tool matures into something like Jose Altuve’s. Maybe he’ll come up and bunt and slap the ball like Dee Gordon. But then he could also become a Tony Womack, a slap-hitting utility player, and that’s hardly a useful player at all. The Braves don’t love Peraza’s offensive skills, and he hasn’t hit well overall this year. He still has that prospect glow, but it doesn’t last forever, when a player isn’t performing. If you think Peraza’s stock is headed downhill, then, going downhill doesn’t go up. This would then be a fine time to deal.
Wood is a little bit similar, in that, even though he’s more proven, 2015 has raised a few questions. Because of the way that Wood throws the ball, people have forever been expecting him to blow up, and though that hasn’t happened, there’s some velocity drop, here. More significantly, Wood’s strikeouts are down, as his contact rate has soared north. Generally speaking, we suck at knowing which pitchers are headed for surgery, but even just on a performance basis, Wood might be declining. Throw in the health questions and, again, you can see why maybe the Braves wanted to relieve themselves of this risk. If they think Wood is getting worse or headed for an operation, then, what good would he be to them?
Enter Olivera. Yeah, he’s 30. Yeah, he has all of 31 plate appearances in Triple-A. There’s a different sort of risk, here. We still don’t have a great idea of what he’ll be as a major leaguer, and if anything he’s moving away from his physical prime. But, Olivera is a hitter. A hitter with power, unlike Peraza. He’s close to being ready to come up, so he can help in short order, and he fills an organizational need what with the decline of Rio Ruiz. And, from 2016 – 2020, Olivera is signed, for $32.5 million. There’s also a cheap option at the end in case Olivera requires elbow surgery. This is almost a cost-controlled quality hitter. Instead, it’s a cost-controlled potential quality hitter, but if the Braves didn’t believe in him, they wouldn’t have tried so hard to sign him in the first place.
We can take nothing for granted, but if Olivera begins as even just a league-average third baseman, then he stands to be a bargain. Average players cost more than $32.5 million over five years. Moving away from 30 would presumably see Olivera decline, but probably not too sharply. And if Olivera were better than average? Then the value skyrockets. The Braves know that. The risk is that Olivera doesn’t stay healthy, or he just can’t adjust to major-league pitching, so this could end up wasted money, but what if Wood falls apart? What if Peraza doesn’t hit?
The Braves are trading a 24-year-old and a 21-year-old for a 30-year-old, but there’s reason to believe the younger guys are already declining, while the 30-year-old is about ready to help. Follow that argument, and the Braves are being proactive here, moving assets before they lose their value for a bat that they like. This isn’t to say the Braves are unquestionably doing the right thing. Maybe they’re wrong about Wood. Maybe Peraza develops a better hit tool, and he’s a good cheap player for years. Maybe there was more out there to get than Olivera. But then, we already knew the Braves liked Olivera, so you put your faith in their scouting. You do the same thing with regard to the two players going away. Lots of ways to see this going poorly. But the Braves’ reasons are legitimate and justifiable. And now they have something they didn’t have before.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
The return just feels really small for the braves. Yes Olivera is a legitimate bat, but the minor leaguer is questionable at best and Paco is hurt. I just feel like the minor league player in question could have and should have been a bigger target.
Correction: Olivera is probably a legitimate bat
Theres no probably, he COULD be a quality bat. In my eyes he is probably a below average hitter who will probably play 100 games a season if you’re lucky.
Where did you get from? Was it his over .300/.400/.500 slash he puts up anywhere he plays? The glowing scouting reports that had LA pay over $60 mil? Or did you determine this based on most Cubans outperforming their contracts? He’s not without flaws though. I expect his batting eye to play and for him to gain that 25 pounds most Cubans gain when they eat and train correctly. I would see him as a 120 wRC+ guy, we’ll see.
It’s pretty apparent to me that the Braves had wanted Olivera all along before he signed with anyone. John Hart said as much when he appeared via phone during tonight’s broadcast of the Braves-Phillies game.
What makes it disappointing is that we had to trade a relatively cheap starting pitcher to get Olivera, when all it would have taken was money when he was first signed.
Yes, but they didn’t have that money then, and there’s no reason to believe they have it now. They’re still getting Olivera at a discount.
How much do you think it would have taken to outbid LA?
That’s a whole lot of “ifs.” The fact that you basically started this article with the thought, “let’s see if we can figure out what the heck the Braves are thinking bc this seems crazy”, is rather telling.
It’s not a trade I would’ve made, but I would’ve been very willing to move Peraza and Wood. Probably would’ve just tried for something other than Olivera.
Agreed on both accounts. The opportunity cost was too high with Olivera, as those two should’ve been able to fetch something with a more certain profile than him.
agreed, im surprised they didnt get a decent prospect from the dodgers. rodriguez has been pretty dominant and has 4 years of control with cheap arb numbers because of lack of saves so i guess there is that. they do need a middle of the order bat moving forward so if oliveria provides that this will end up looking like a steal with all the pitching depth they have.
Agree. I could see moving Wood and Peraza for a young hitter, but not a 30 year old with a bad health history.
bronson arroyos contract to the dodgers as well. so they ate a ton of money.
That’s a new factor. Not a huge one, but it does help the Braves. This is still primarily about Wood/Peraza for Olivera, but now the Braves have a little bit more in their favor.
Only eating some of the money. Braves are also eating some.
So the real winner is Arroyo, who gets a playoff share now, right? Could get a WS ring.
Pretty funny how Arroyo is getting moved around when all he really is anymore is a contract devoid of any value.
He’s just a pile of cash at this point.
Kind of like BJ, but at least he is getting some playing time.
This makes a major omission of upside. The braves may have shifted risk but they also gave up tangible upside. Oliveras upside is probably 3 wins (that should not be an expectation), which is what Wood is currently producing. Under that thinking anything over 0 wins from peraza is pure upside, and even if you don’t love him as a prospect the fact that he’s a top 50 guy consensus should atleast make you comfortable that 2+ win player is realistically attainable
I think you’re more than a little low on upside. I think it’s important to note that he does project to be above-average in all WAR components, because a lot of time you’ll see one or two aspects of the game submarine someone’s value. That’s likely not the case with Olivera. His biggest worry is health, and that is valid. But we’re talking upside, so leave health aside.
Olivera is reported to be a good defender and good baserunner, so even an average bat probably nets him that 3 WAR, assuming he is healthy and gets 600PA/1350innings at 2B/3B.
By all indications, his bat should be better than average and does have some power behind it. So let’s say 110-120, at least to start his career. I don’t think that’s a wild upside projection at all.
If he’s doing something in that neighborhood, with good defense and baserunning, along with positional adjustments and replacement value, he’s pretty easily in the 3-5 WAR range. Somewhere between, say, 2014 Sandoval to Peralta range.
Of course, all this assumes health, which is a pretty huge question mark and must be acknowledged. But the upside is much rosier than you’re saying it is.
-C
Even if they see it this way, it’s a serious indictment of their organization that they couldn’t scrounge of the signing bonus for Olivera in the offseason, and are now paying it off with young talent. You cannot do that kind of tradeoff and get ahead in this league.
scrounge up*
Maybe, but I don’t know how much you can blame them for not being able to match the Dodgers’ money on the open market.
I don’t know if “blame” is the right word. But if the state of the organization is such that they have to use quality cost-controlled major leaguers as the equivalent of cash because they don’t have cash, their future seems dim.
They could’ve matched the money. It’s not like we’re talking about Kershaw’s contract or Greinke’s next contract. They just chose not to go as high as the Dodgers were willing to go.
It’s fair to say that the Braves are paying the signing bonus with Wood and Peraza and the Dodgers used the signing bonus to buy a good young pitcher and shortstop.
That assumes the Dodgers would’ve stopped there. For all we know LA could very easily have pushed the bill even higher. My point overall is that Atlanta fans shouldn’t fret over not having the same resources because at the end of the day a smart front office and good player development matter much more, and Hart seems pretty solid in that realm.
I understand with the signing bonus that the Braves aren’t picking up 100% of Olivera’s contract. However, my first reaction was that this trade feels like an MVP Baseball/MLB The Show trade exploit where I trade an older player I just signed and do not want for young players that I do want.
Man, I love the digital age. A trade deal happens like David Price for Daniel Norris et. al and within half an hour, a long article appears. 3…2…1…go.
I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic here. Are you actually bitching that they haven’t written up the Price deal yet? The Latos/Wood/Peraza/Olivera swap has been out there for about 16 hours, so it’s no knock on analysts that they aren’t rushing out takes about the Price deal, which wasn’t known until this morning.
For whatever it’s worth, Dave is writing about the Price trade, and he had to record the Jonah Keri podcast in the middle.
This is as good of a defense of the Braves’ side of the trade as we are likely to see.
That being said, I don’t see the upside here for the Braves. Olivera is 30 years old and already entering his decline phase. The Braves will not compete this year and they will almost certainly not compete next year. Their target is 2017, when Olivera will be 32 years old.
At that point, he is unlikely to produce any meaningful value on the base paths or with the glove, so his ceiling is limited to projecting his bat — a complete unknown. All of this without even mentioning the red flags about his health.
So as much as you could make the “high risk, high reward” argument, the risk is astoundingly high and the reward would be disproportionately realized when it would be meaningless to the Braves.
the braves got rid of arroyos contract as well, so more money off the books.
Great, ownership saved $8M that will not be reallocated elsewhere this year and, because of annual accounting, is unlikely to be reallocated towards future years. Braves fans should be excited!
The only money savings Arroyo is would be the 4.5M buyout. What good is saving money the last 2 months going to do? It’s a sunk cost at this point and negligible.
Agreed. I can be convinced that Alex Wood and Peraza didn’t fit in and that they were worth trading while their value was high.
But I can’t see how someone who will be 32 when the Braves are next trying to compete was worth trading FOR. Just doesn’t feel like Olivera was someone they should have been looking for.
so basically the braves buy pitchers, the dodgers buy middle infielders.
Man I just don’t get the valuation here by the Braves. I’ve got to think that Wood + Peraza + either a B prospect of good reliever gets them something more like Oliver + Ethier. Maybe even most of the way towards a Puig deal on the offseason. Even if their guys were depreciating, I can’t imagine they’d have trouble finding a better package in January.
Like, Andre Ethier? Is there another Ethier I don’t know about?
People keep talking about 30 like it’s 40. Yeah, he’s not Mike Trout, but he can be productive for 5 more years. What teams are out there trading 24-year old cost-controlled probably impact bats for a package of Wood/Peraza?
If the ceiling on Olivera is a 3 WAR player, then we’re basically talking about an INF version of Ethier (who is on pace for 2.5 WAR this year and should perform around that level through his contract’s terminus in 2017).
Olivera is definitely a player worth targeting, but for the price the Braves paid they should have pulled in more. They dumped Wood (3 WAR/yr so maybe 12+ while cost-controlled) and Peraza (projected for 9 WAR in total before team control is up) for a guy who, if everything breaks right, could produce 18 WAR or so on this contract.
When you trade guys whose likely outcome > the best possible outcome of what you got in return you messed up.
Good thing Olivera doesn’t have a 3-win ceiling, then.
Well Kiley gave him a FV of 50, which equals 2.0 WAR, so 3.0 WAR would seem to be a pretty generous assumption for Olivera’s performance. Maybe he has a season of 4 or 4.5 WAR in him, but he’ll be lucky to average 3 WAR/season once he find a regular MLB role.
You’re aware that he mashed with some of the games best in Cuba? His OPS was at the top of the league when guys like Abreu, and Despaigne had to go historic to keep him in third place.
The ~$8.3M Atlanta saves by not having to pay Arroyo his remaining salary + buyout of ’16 makes this incrementally more palatable. The competitive balance pick has an expected net value in the $13M range (from HBT last May), so a trade surplus of $21M or thereabouts. Not an insignificant factor on the Braves’ side of the trade ledger.
Don’t worry Braves fans, we’ll have Kevin Maitan playing 3B in six years!
I think you’re pretty spot on with everything here, but I don’t think you can completely ignore Johnson and Avilan as part of it. They’ve both been solid relievers this year, and there isn’t a team out there that wouldn’t take relief help. I’m not saying they’re worth a big bat or an A-prospect, but they’re worth much more than the “throw-in” that they appear to be.
That’s basically where Rodriguez, Bird, and the pick come in. Might not be totally equal, but, mostly, those negate one another. Longer-term value for two proven relievers.
Well, Paco is already better than Avilan, so the Braves win that one if he stays healthy. Johnson for the Dodgers’ #15 spect and basically a 1st round pick sounds like a win too.
Peraza hits like…. Alcides Escobar? Unless he’s got an elite glove, it’s hard to see him doing much in the majors.
His ceiling is probably Luis Castillo–which would actually be really good–but he won’t walk as much as Castillo and that’ll suck away a ton of his potential value.
Seems like an overhyped future utility player.
luis castillo with power is a stud!
Peraza’s career ISO is .085………….
I think the Dee Gordon comps are more apt than Escobar. People here seem to be undervaluing Peraza’s speed. Peraza has exhibited as good or better ISO, AVG, BABIP, etc than Gordon’s minor league track record. No one thought much of Gordon when he was brought up, but the Dodgers turned him into a valuable MI and I see little reason to believe they couldn’t do the same with a Peraza who seems very similar.
A cost controlled hitter may in fact be more valuable than a cost controlled pitcher that is an injury waiting to happen, even if you consider that one is 24 and the other 30.
Peraza is a dime a dozen no walk no power middle infielder. If he wasnt ranked high on prospect lists, nobody would think anything of him. His stats are what he is at this point in his career.
I like that the Braves get nearly a 1st round pick in this deal, and shed salary. You’d think guys like Wood be more valuable, but look what the A’s got last year for Tommy Milone. Hardly anything.
lol?
Jose Peraza’s stats include his age and 21 in AAA is impressive.
From 2013-2015:
David Price: 3.10 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.05 xFIP
Johnny Cueto: 2.44 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.28 xFIP
Cole Hamels: 3.19 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 3.29 xFIP
Alex Wood: 3.10 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.42 xFIP
If you really want to know why this sort of thing happens, all you need to do is look back to last season. Wood had a four-game stretch in which he went 0-4, but only had one bad game. In the other three losses, he allowed 4 runs in 21 innings, while striking out 25 and walking 3.
But because of the 0-4 he was removed from the rotation, and soon was demoted to the bullpen, and when asked about it his manager said on the Braves pregame show something like “the kid just doesn’t know how to win in the big leagues.”
Because allowing 4 runs in 3 games makes you a big, fat loser when they’re all losses.
I hate Fredi Gonzalez as much as the next Braves fan, but there is no way he said one of his players “just doesn’t know how to win in the big leagues.” Link a quote or admit you made that up.
And Wood was shuffled between the bullpen and the rotation in an attempt to control his innings, not due to any perceived lack of performance.
Jeff Sullivan, is there really no power upside at all for Peraza? He’s only 21 and should get stronger if not necessarily bigger.
Similar build to Martin Prado who looked like a utility bench guy at best with .092 ISO in minors but filled out and has put up .132 ISO in the majors becoming a solid regular.
The competitive balance pick seems to be the kind of thing the Hart front office values very highly. The combination of depth in the farm and financial flexibility, you can see them preparing to spend soon. The proof will be in: 1) what kind of value they extract from developing the farm (both in terms of major league talent for the Braves, and trade value when they get competitive); 2) how wisely and well they choose to spend the money on Free Agents (I’m assuming this is going to be in the form of starting pitching. Would feel much more comfortable if the Braves went in for a guy like Price, than, say, Zimmermann); 3) as you say, the shakeout on the risk-tradeoffs with core players in this deal.
As a Braves fan, I’ve liked much of what Hart’s done, at least the fact that there seems to be a method at work (Markakis signing notwithstanding).
What about trading value declining now (wood, peraza) for a solid bat that will decline in 2-3 years so they trade Olivera next season or in the 2016/2017 offseason?
Olivera seems like the type of player you use as a stopgap/trade for a team in Atlantas situation. I just don’t get why they couldn’t get more for Wood/Peraza
This is a great deal. Paraza did not have a position–peterson beats him defensively. Wood they were gonna trade with teheran during the summer. Wood is a number 3 pitcher. I love him–but we got a few of those. This is a continuation of the phil g trade. which means the braves got the highest ceiling prospect they have for phil g and 4.5 million. Wow, Paco the reliever is better long term than avalin. Jim johnson came to the braves to work with rodger m and resurect his career. He did. Now he helps get us Bird. And a 35th pick.
The braves gave up: Wood, Peraza, Phil g, JJ, Avalin, 4.5million
Got: Troussant. Bird, 35th pick, 84th(ish) from last year got a canadian guy,olivera, paco
They got Olivero for next 5 years cheap (5 plus million a year) Not 40 something million
We gave up wood and peraza got back an incredible amount. I know olivera is a risk–but better now than 40 something million. I think I like hart more than i did before and i didnt think that was possible. What are we gonna get for AJ and gomes? I know the people who dont like it and have valid points–i believe time will show this as a great move.
The Braves have made many good deals, and if you combine one of those good deals with this bad deal, together it will likely look like an average deal. But this was a bad deal.
I’m torn. I feel like the Braves can just pull quality pitching out of thin air (and have been for years).
What makes me feel (a little) better is that this season, we’ve finally had some veteran players brought in who’ve either improved or at least hit the same as expected.
Probably didn’t get as much as we could have but pitching isn’t our issue. We need more runs stat.
bad deal for the braves.