Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 1/20/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody. Blue Jays list went live today, Guardians list went live last week. If you haven’t seen ’em, take a look.

Brendan Gawlowski: Away we go

Potato: Great Job with the Jays system! Any rough order for the next few to come out?

Brendan Gawlowski: Angels for me next week. Eric is working on Phillies, then Detroit. James will have Houston or St. Louis sometime before prospect week, I don’t recall which.

Brendan Gawlowski: We’re also balancing these lists with other Prospect Week content, so… much to come

Nick: How does a prospect’s organization impact your evaluation (if at all)? For example, Ethan Holliday with the Rockies (haven’t developed bats well recently) vs Ethan Holliday with the Dodgers/Brewers/etc?

Brendan Gawlowski: I try to scout the player first and foremost. Was a little frustrating back with the Pirates when I had systems that did not tend to develop certain things well because I knew there was a good chance that my reports were going to wind up heavy. But that’s the way it sorta has to be. For FG, I try to make a note when a player’s dev context either lines up particularly well or poorly with his org. Savvy readers probably have the patterns mostly worked out.

Brendan Gawlowski: Jake Cook and Blaine Bullard with the Jays are good examples of guys who are candidates to exceed b/c their org is very skilled in the exact area they most need to buff up

Jonathan: What would be a good example of someone you’d consider aggressively assigning a 50 FV to that Eric might need some gentle nudging to come around on?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not so much nudging as him tolerating/allowing my enthusiasm to shine on younger bats. Emil Morales is a good example.

Mike: Off the cuff reaction on draft class quality the last few years? 2023 and 2024 strong? 2022 and 2025 below average? How does 2026 stack up so far?

Brendan Gawlowski: ’22 looks pretty bad in hindsight. ’23 has a shot to be the best of the decade.

Jonathan: Do you guys have a plan for updating already-released team lists with the recent IAFAs?

Brendan Gawlowski: I will check with Eric about that. I suspect yes but don’t quote me.

Guest: Who is the guy you are considering for the hundo this year that was furthest away from consideration at this time last year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Ooh, interesting question. I wasn’t here for those discussions, but just speculate… Which pitcher made a huge velo jump… hmm. Oppor perhaps?

Hard Hittin’ Mark Whiten: did we all get too excited about Kristian Campbell, or is his skill set/setup so weird that his upper and lower end are more extreme?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think the variance was always part of the profile, for the reason you mentioned. I’m not out on him by any stretch.

MrMet: What’s your take on Aroon Escobar and his future with the Phillies?

Brendan Gawlowski: If you’re a prospect where Dombo’s pulling the strings, decent chance you’ll wind up elsewhere. I have no intel, it’s just how he rolls. Crowded infield, too.

Alex: I’ve heard some people mention that Luis Hernandez will start stateside. If he starts in the complex league and makes it to A ball San Jose by the end of the season – how does that impact his evaluation?

Brendan Gawlowski: It would impact it positively, in the sense that he’s not getting to SJ unless he really performs on the complex.

alexis anthopolous: Hey Brandon. Bigger impact down the stretch, Gabby Jesus or Kai?

Brendan Gawlowski: Who is Brandon?

Chen Barrington: Without spilling too many secrets, was there a profile of hitter and/or pitcher that you thought the Pirates over or undervalued? Were there any clear mandates to find players that fit X profile?

Brendan Gawlowski: This might not be exactly what you’re asking, but I thought we could be kind of quick to lump pitchers in the 1-2 x through the order bucket.

Greg: Do you think public side analysts are overconfident, underconfident, or just the right amount of confident when evaluating teams player dev capabilities? It’s always seemed to me that there’s such a small sample size of players and such a gigantic number of factors in any one player’s development that maybe we are too quick to crown or clown various teams player dev capabilities

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a good question, but also a broad one. I think you’re instinct is sound, and in that spirit, it’s important to keep refreshing your impressions of org competence/deficiency as people behind the scenes change or new info becomes apparent.

Brendan Gawlowski: The Nats started getting better w/developing arms, for just one example

Alex: How many international amateur free agents in a typical year end up having MLB careers? Just a few on average?

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot. Some are big bonus guys, some are gonna sign for $10k and are not visible at all right now

Silly Little Guy: How do you weigh your prospect evaluations? 50/50 on where they are now versus peak projection, or different values on each?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a forecast of what they’re going to do. For some guys, especially younger ones, there’s a lot projection on size and skill. For others, there’s a what you see is what you get flavor. It just depends on the player.

Tom: When working for the Pirates, did you scout players in other systems through your organization’s lens? Meaning, if the Pirates developmental program focused on certain qualities, would that alter your assessment of a player? Was it about identifying guys who would be a better fit with Pirates dev than their current org?

Brendan Gawlowski: Great question, and yes, teams scout with an eye toward what their own org prioritizes and develops well. And I always liked scouting teams that were not as good at developing the traits that PIT excels with.

Mike: Not a prospect anymore, but what’s your evaluation of Colson Montgomery going forward? In his big league debut he didn’t exactly silence any concerns about his whiff rate, but his power and defense were good enough that he produced like a quality regular anyway. Do you think he can continue to produce that way or is more likely the whiffs end up being too much of an impediment to be anything beyond a 2ish win guy

Brendan Gawlowski: Well, first, a two-win guy would be a 50 and that’s a very good player. I suspect he’s a power/hit regular.

Guest: The Rangers are another that seem to have recently improved developing arms. What changed in their process to facilitate this improvement?

Brendan Gawlowski: Good question, disappointing answer upcoming: I’m not sure but I will try to answer this in the post-list essay/overview at the bottom.

Brendan Gawlowski: Incidentally, I really like writing those and I hope people enjoy them. I sort of wonder if they should be toward the top of the page instead of the bottom.

Guest: For all this talk about how great the dodgers system is, I have yet to see any actual players live up to the hype. Like, they have only produced a couple mid relievers, Andy Pages and Will Smith (And Michael Busch) in the last 5 years. Is there a reason why their system is so overhyped?

Brendan Gawlowski: Setting aside the players you listed who have lived up to the hype… The Dodgers are good at developing guys quickly, and getting them to their… not exactly end point, but getting them closer to it faster than most orgs. Their guys may have less growth/projection ahead than others. Sometimes this has an inflationary effect. Miguel Vargas is perhaps an example of this at work. Diego Cartaya too.

Colton: Coronado’s write up reads like an Arraez 2.0 with actual plate discipline but even less power. On the flip side there’s guys with potential 20 hit tools and 80 power (Murakami) that if they just get to even just a minus hit they are arguably all stars. How tough is it to discern who’s outlier tool is worth seriously reading into and who’s is not?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a game of looking for who can give you just enough. I’m a little skeptical that, say, Zach Cole can hit enough to let the tools play, but he’s another guy where if you think he can have a 30/35 bat, you’ve got a real player.

Maria: When a prospect grade is missed, what normally happened? A bad reading on a radar gun? A mixed up report? Colt Keith, for example, was once given a 70 grade raw power.

Brendan Gawlowski: Projecting comes with the obvious risks. “This guy, at this size and age, should grow into this level of power based on my priors.” Sometimes guys are going to fall short of that eval, for all sorts of reasons. Maybe the body was maxed, maybe the guy gets hurt, maybe he’s not much of a lifter.

Shane: How far through the system do you think Eli Willits will go this season?

Brendan Gawlowski: AA wouldn’t shock me.

Schmegs: I had an old question return to me reading Ralph Velaquez’s write up. It seems like catchers who are pushed off the position because of defense usually head to 1B or DH. I’ve always thought that even a bad defensive catcher should have pretty good reflexes, a decent arm and some baseball instincts. All that sounds like a 3B to me. Why don’t we see that move more often? Maybe it happens more than I think because it happens in MiLB but I mostly think of Josh Donaldson and Brandon Inge for the C to 3B move and not much else.

Brendan Gawlowski: Russell Martin, too. I hate to always say “it depends” but it really does. If you move a guy early, when he still has legs, you can get an outfielder. Bryce Harper is probably the most famous example of that. Third can be a fit for guys who are really athletic — you can add Russell Martin to that list, even if he wound up back behind the plate eventually. Oftentimes though, guys move off because they’re not athletic enough back there, and that usually means 1B or DH. Briceño is another one who will probably do that.

Maria: Fantasy question: Am I crazy to think Tyler Soderstrom could match Pete Alonso’s production this season?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, I’m really bullish on Soderstrom. His splits at 1B/LF were nuts last year. This guy has never had a chance to just settle at one spot and focus on hitting at an age-appropriate level for long. Things could get nutty

e: when talking about org dev issues, how do you separate poor development versus poor talent acquisition? e.g. the Rockies have had a number of recent high profile prospects (Condon, Amador, Veen, etc) who have stalled or regressed significantly in recent years, do you attribute that more to their lack of dev or more that they were very flawed prospects to begin with?

Brendan Gawlowski: In recent years, the Rockies amateur scouting staff/draft apparatus was pretty solid. Maybe not best in class — and they had whiffs, Hughes was an overdraft, Montgomery was really risky for that spot in the draft — but more than enough to be competitive. Not just my opinion either, a lot of scouts who cover the system would say the same thing. But a lot of guys didn’t get any better. You can even see the issue at work in the guys who did make it: Tovar and Goodman are good players but they’re also very flawed. Talented enough to make it even without a lot of seasoning, basically.

Greg: Are you a believer that Oneil Cruz still has breakout potential? Or is he more likely to stay a wildly unique 2 WAR player?

Brendan Gawlowski: Starting to think he just doesn’t see the ball well enough to be more than a good, frustrating player. Still has the tools to go supernova, obviously, but last year was kind of a turning point for me.

wheelhouse: is jasson dominguez realistically even a 1.5 WAR player at this point? showed next to nothing in his rookie season, bad enough that he lost his job

Brendan Gawlowski: I think he can still be a 50.

MJS: Thoughts on some underrated prospects in the Marlins farm system that’s now filled with depth?

Brendan Gawlowski: That system is so deep, going to be a nightmare to cover (complimentary). Of the guys they got in those recent swaps, Dillon Lewis is the one I’ve got my eye on.

Colby: which 25  draftee that didnt debut last year are you most interested to see?

Brendan Gawlowski: Ethan Conrad.

Henchman: I always scroll down to read the system summary, for what it’s worth.  I can’t focus enough to care about the 28th best prospect on the Angels, but I do want a sense of how the system is doing.

ER: Thoughts on Jonah Tong… do you think his outlier profile works to the point he’s a 2-3 MLB SPer or do you see him as a bullpen arm?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m a little skeptical. Not convinced he has a good enough breaking ball.

KevinT: As a high stakes fantasy player, one thing I have noticed is the acceleration of prospect development windows and when players are making it to the majors. Particularly pitchers, guys you pegged last year as arrival windows for 2027/28 were up in 2025. Have promotion timelines become more variable, more truncated, or just a great batch of MLB ready pitchers the last few years?

Brendan Gawlowski: They’re getting accelerated for a variety of reasons. College players have less developmental runway than they used to; the minor leagues are smaller; teams are more willing to move players aggressively if it looks like they’ve conquered the level; teams want pitchers to use their bullets where it matters. There’s probably some behind the scenes pressure in some orgs to move guys quickly as well.

KevinT: Whats the deal with airline food?

Brendan Gawlowski: The cracker bags are so small now.

Alex: Eric had Liam Doyle as his top prospect in last year’s draft. Other outlets, such as BA, were lower on him due to the delivery, lacking secondaries, and relief risk. What do you think?

Brendan Gawlowski: Just reflects a lack of consensus at the top. I think Doyle is a perfectly fine choice as the top guy

Anon: There’s speculation that MLB/Orgs want to cut the # of players in MiLB again in the next CBA. Could you see the MLB follow the NHL and have teams draft a player’s rights and allow them to go to college for development/NIL opportunities?

Brendan Gawlowski: Nothing would surprise me at this point. I think it’s a mistake — removing short season ball has had deleterious effects on certain guys, Latin American hitters especially

TimM: Make me feel good about the Cardinals.  I am happy they have picked a lane, but does their system have what it would take to fuel a successful rebuild?

Brendan Gawlowski: You can turn a bad system into a good one pretty quickly even without a ton of big-league trade chips. And the Cards do have some guys to deal.

Brendan Gawlowski: Obviously you have to execute, no guarantees, etc.

RT: It appears 3b is pretty weak league wide when it comes to the minors, why would you say that is?

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of future 3B are still playing shortstop

Guest: I’m a big proponent of putting the system overviews at the beginning of the write-ups as opposed to the end. It’s a little tedious to have to scroll past the guys with backup catcher or long reliever upside to get to your (and Eric’s) writeups

Jimmy Crooks: When is the goal for the team prospect lists to all be completed?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s probably going to run into April. I just didn’t get here in time to get started early enough to wrap up before Opening Day. Knock on wood, we should have the 2027 lists done before the season starts (insert lockout joke…. here)

Rickey: Would you bet on Emmanuel Rodriguez getting a shot and succeeding this year? 50-50 shot? Too much risk?

Brendan Gawlowski: Risk/reward type, and I’m a little skeptical of him, honestly. Patience is not a carrying tool.

Okra: I’m surprised teams don’t intentionally give their ballpark more extreme dimensions to build a strong home field advantage.  I’m thinking a huge outfield that almost forces you to play 3 CFs would be ideal.  Fill team with contact hitters and speed.

Brendan Gawlowski: I agree with you. I was dismayed with KC’s decision to change an absolutely perfect ballpark. But this is also a personal hobby horse, I would like to see every fence in the league that hasn’t been standing for 100 years move back at least fifteen feet.

Dan Norman Lear: Have to say the JoJo Parker writeup was quite positive on the O end, and he sure sounds like a 3B with some pop down the road. Who is a reasonable potential comp? Kyle Seager?

Brendan Gawlowski: Seager is a tricky comp because he was so sharp. He knew exactly he who he was and tailored his game to his strengths. Not to say that Parker can’t do that either, but Seager’s feel for the game was really, really good. Production wise… Seager was a 30+ WAR guy. I don’t know if I’m there on Parker. If I was, he’d have been higher.

pt: Giants list when please..

Brendan Gawlowski: Probably around spring training. The strength of the system is in the younger guys, and I would love to see them again for a fresh look. Really intrigued by the complex group they had last year, and then obviously Josuar too

Jeremy: Another vote for putting the system overview at the beginning of the write-up rather than the end. Maybe you should poll the chat on this?

Brendan Gawlowski: Oh god, I can do that? Hang on

Brendan Gawlowski:

Brendan Gawlowski: No promises on this, but I think it’s worth a discussion

KevinT: There seems to be an impending SS boon coming very soon. Not sure how old you are or how long you have been doing this, but how does this pending youth movement stack up to the mid-2010s: Baez, Russell, Story, Correa, Lindor, Rosario, Seager

Brendan Gawlowski: Below, because my god that was a great group. I’m squeezing Ketel Marte into that too, he came up as a SS at the same time.

jazzrunner: Speaking of the Jays….Orelvis Martinez. What happened?  It seems to me that there is a growing list of high priced international signees that have been total busts.  Robert Puason, Erick Pena.  Most the guys the Yankees signed.  Do you have a theory? Or is it just a numbers game where only a sliver make it.  This is in contrast to top domestic signees who are older but seem to almost all make it. Has something changed in the international market?

Brendan Gawlowski: Orelvis: Tools are important, but so are skills at a certain point, and he’s still raw there. I don’t think he’s cooked but obviously he’s stagnated a bit. I would not put him in the Puason category

Brendan Gawlowski: Fun Puason story from a teammate: He didn’t want to slide head first because he didn’t want to risk breaking the chain on his neck.

Mike Lommler: Who is the weirdest (real) prospect who you think (or hope) might have an impact on a playoff race this season?

Brendan Gawlowski: Is Justin Crawford weird to you? He’s a doozy to evaluate.

Guest: Why is the dodgers farm systems so high on everyone’s list?

Brendan Gawlowski: They have a lot of good players

Jim: What do you think of Braden Nett’s chances of sticking as a starter?

Brendan Gawlowski: Bullish that he can hone his command, really fluid, would stay on it.

metties: Scouting has long been one of the least diverse parts of baseball. Have you seen any promising change in terms of the makeup of who gets to become a scout for pro orgs?

Brendan Gawlowski: Trending that way. I worked in a department with two women and two scouts who had been shifted from amateur Dominican coverage to pro, which sounds small, but definitely reflects a shift. Not just PIT either, ran into women from several other orgs.

Dan: What do you like about Ethan Conrad?

Brendan Gawlowski: Toolsy, not a lot on tape especially against good competition. Mystery box with a lot of upside.

Willy Mo: Hi Brendan, here is an unorthodox question. What would be your advice to someone who has always been fascinated with the “prospect world”? Someone who would like to venture into prospecting to learn more about how to evaluate players. More like a hobby than a job. Having a family and a full-time job prevents me from ever getting to the point where you, Eric, and James have gotten, but wonder if there is a good starting point for someone to learn more about evaluations.

Brendan Gawlowski: Read, read, read. It’s nearly 15 years old now, but the Up and In podcast from Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks is a really entertaining listen too… It inspired me to get into all this.

Pudge: Connelly Early or Payton Tolle?

Brendan Gawlowski: Early

Brew: Will Jesus Made and/or Luis Pena crack the AAA roster by the allstar break? End of season?

Brendan Gawlowski: Peña would surprise me, he’s basically starting fresh at High-A. Made could get there by the end of the year. It’s nuts but elite talents don’t always have a timetable

Jeff in Jersey: Hi Brendan! Thanks for the chat and hope you’re enjoying your role at Fangraphs. Of the Mets offensive prospects besides Benge, any you like? Any you would move for LF help?

Brendan Gawlowski: There are a lot of Mets questions here and I realize this answer sucks but I’m spending part of this week evaluating their potential top 100 guys and will be better positioned to answer that next week. My apologies.

mindaugas1: What are your thoughts on Willits?  Will he make Abrams expendable in 3 yrs?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s too far away to make any kind of plan and there’s a looming free agency at play here but I imagine you could find a way to get both on the field if it comes to that.

btownfritz: Does Kade Anderson get a taste of the majors this season for the Mariners?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think so, yeah.

KevinT: Prospect promotion follow-up: are you and Eric considering the new approach now when evaluating prospect promotion timelines ahead of the top 100 in a few weeks? How do both best determine a promotional timeline? Obviously Jesus Made could be up at age 20, but that should not be the timeline for most

Brendan Gawlowski: Trying to. It’s also a moving target and not consistent between orgs. The Rays and Mariners are willing to go a little slower; Michael Arroyo and Laz Montes hung around High-A longer than other teams have kept them their, for instance. Meanwhile, the Angels might sign and promote you to the big leagues by the end of this chat

Okra: Do you knock a pitching prospect down a grade when he gets TJ?  Why or why not?

Brendan Gawlowski: It introduces an element of risk, obviously, but doesn’t change the pitch grades or anything. Eric has traditionally handled it by sending top 100 guys to the back of the list, which I think is a fair approach from a value estimation standpoint.

Crabcakes: How much are you interested in graduated guys who are back in the minors and thus might still be thought of as prospects vs there are so many players to watch I don’t have time for anyone who no longer has rookie-status?

Brendan Gawlowski: Very, I think guys can get buried way too quickly. How close did Josh Donaldson come to not having a career?

Dallas: im convinced Jhostynxnon Garcia is Alexander Canario 2.0. Tell me I’m wrong

Brendan Gawlowski: Canario has some mechanical issues that prevent him from getting to fastballs on time. Garcia may or may not hit but I don’t look at him and think “this major thing needs to change or we have a problem”

Will: From your time inside the walls, what has been the general reaction to the shrinkage in MiLB levels & technology?

Brendan Gawlowski: Negative to the level shrink. I will never forgive the league for cutting Montana/Colorado teams out of my summers

btownfritz: Do you feel that Colt Emerson of the Mariners would be ready for an opening day debut? Could you see him putting up a ROY campaign?

Brendan Gawlowski: Neither would be shocking.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Bryce Mayer? His fastball plays up vs his velocity, and he’s performed very well in the low minors and pretty well in the upper levels as well.

Brendan Gawlowski: He could be a No. 4.

Hi: Organizationally after the Dodgers, are the Mariners in best shape top to bottom?

Brendan Gawlowski: Do you mean just the farm system? Because if not I would definitely pick a franchise willing to pay for things over Seattle.

Jonathan: What is the weirdest anecdote you’ve ever heard about a prospect?  No need to name names if it’s egregious.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll choose something harmless. I was at a game where a woman released a flock of doves 10-15 minutes before first pitch and then I saw Tai Peete go over to her, shake hands, and exchange business cards. Never know when you’re gonna need a bunch of doves, I guess.

Daniel: In your opinion, what do you think are the chances Angel Genao hits for average power in the majors? I’m concerned by his groundball tendencies.

Brendan Gawlowski: Fair concern to have until he starts doing it.

Tyler: Re: moving summaries to the top of prospect writeups, do you all use a tool like HotJar or Full Story for website analytics? For a numbers-driven group like yourselves, tools like those could be an easy way to quantify what part of the reports (and all of your articles, honestly) get the most eyeballs / clicks / etc.

Brendan Gawlowski: Better question for Appleman and Meg. My understanding is, as we’ve moved into more of a subscription model, metrics like that have become a little less important. But also I’m a prospect writer not a businessman and thank god not an SEO marketer anymore. I could be talking out of my hind parts here.

e: what happened to Jordan Walker? he seemed like the kind of profile of a guy who just seemed like a sure thing to hit (even if there were limitations to his defensive profile), and he just… hasnt

Brendan Gawlowski: Still on him to some degree, good change of scenery candidate.

KevinT: For 2026 only, rank in terms of major league ABs & expected contributions: Aiden Miller, Colt Emerson, Sebastian Walcott, JJ Wetherholt, Jesus Made. I am leaving off Konnor and McGonigle as I think they both rank as 1/2 if they are up

Brendan Gawlowski: Emerson and Weatherholt are close. Gap between them and the other two who may not get there at all.

Brendan Gawlowski: Going to shut it down here today. Thanks for all the questions. Looks like we’re making it a weekly thing, I’ll try to come armed with a little more on the Mets next time.