Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10-13-26
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Hello everybody.
Have you seen Jhonny Level at all this year? I think he's become underrated among the glut of young SFG MiF. Was skeptical on him at SS but looked great this year and just hits everything
Several times. He doesn't have the same defensive ability or upside as the younger guys, and at some point he needs to get a little more selective. But it'd be wild if there was prospect fatigue settling in here already, he's a good hitter with sneaky pop. Easy T100 guy.
With the move into Cardinals org Tai Peetehas seemed to take a big step forward. What did he do differently this year and is he a top 100 candidate
Repeating High-A was a good idea. There's still a lot of swing and miss, probably too much for realistic T100 consideration, but it's really encouraging that it didn't skyrocket after he was promoted to AA. And of course, there are more than 100 or 110 interesting prospects with everyday upside!
How would you rank Flora, Bresnahan, Keyner, Marquez and Cayama within the Giants system?
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Flora, Marquez, Keyner, Bresnahan, Cayama.
Last week you wrote that Dax kilby looks like one of the best guys in the league – with guys like Walcott here, that was a bit of a wow moment for me. Reading too much into it, or has the last week been that for you too with kilby?
He doesn't have the same kind of freaky, elite upside that Walcott does but he looks like a high-probability regular. Solid defender at short, really good feel to hit.
Which would be a greater concern for a hitter-chase rate,in zone contact or contact vs 95mph+?
Depends; who do you have in mind?
If you're in AZ or have heard from others, how's Bonemer looking in the OF?
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Raw. Not unexpected, most guys struggle in their initial exposure, particularly in center. It's not true in every case, but I think as a general matter you need to live with growing pains out there for at least a few dozen games before you have any idea if the guy has the instincts to play the outfield.
With Josue De Paula set to potentially play a larger role for the Dodgers as they fight for their lives, is there anything that a prospect like him could show you in a short series like this that could meaningfully affect your view of his outlook?
He could pull an Arozerena I guess. That's probably the best example of a guy playing himself into a significantly higher grade just based on postseason performance alone.
When you watch a player on defense, what are you looking for to say that this player can stick at the position?
Depends where they are on the journey. If it's a teenager on the complex, speed/athleticism are big. You'd also like to see good hands/feel for the hop if it's an infield position, but reliability is a little less important at that stage. For a guy in Triple-A or the majors, the bar is higher, and you want to see him make plays that an average player at that position can handle.
of the angels many holes on the major league roster, which one(s) do you think can be reasonably filled by their non existent farm? or will stan kroenke need to spend his way through everything
I wouldn't say the farm is non existent, there are some dudes down there. They're kind of far away though, Rada could help in '27 but that's probably going to be a rough big league season regardless of what they do.
Back in the day, John Sickels had a theory that prospects with boring names tend to get underrated a bit (Brad Miller was the example that I recall). Have you encountered anything like that?
I appreciate the unique angle here but… no?
Who's a more promising version of the Joey Gallo archetype: Spencer Jones or Lazaro Montes?
They take different routes to a similar place. I'd maybe lean Jones but they're fairly close together on my personal pref.
Sss in full effect, but davalan hasn’t been hitting much in the afl – any sense of what the balance is of that being due to focusing more on fielding/it’s the hardest competition he’s faced/just random?
It's a handful of games.
on the subject of defense: how much are the "instincts" actually coachable? i'm spoiled as a frisbee player because i have a large, slow object that has fairly observable and predictable flight patterns, but i learned to make reads pretty fast. i don't know how that translates to baseball, esp supremely gifted athletes who seem to struggle to track fly balls
I think good instincts give you a higher baseline from which to start. Guys can/do get better at things like tracking a ball in the air or reading a hop on the ground, but some people have a lower ceiling than others.
Would it be fair to say that no farm system has jumped further up the power rankings than the Giants in the last calendar year?
They're up there. St. Louis has an argument too. Atlanta is coming from a lower spot on the rankings but that system's up a decent bit, too.
Would you want to be a scout back in the pre-draft, no tech, no advance knowledge era? When a scout might show up at a game not knowing who anyone was looking for diamonds in the rough? Or is knowing who and what to look for, getting to review video and radar and such make it more enjoyable?
Positives and negatives to both environments. The old days probably a tiny bit more fun but travel logistics were brutal back then.
Alexander frias’s numbers dropped post trade.any concerns?
No.
Who are some of the biggest risers since mid season reports?
Kilby and Flewelling for me personally. Bernal has probably played his way onto the T100.
How deep into off-the-field stuff do teams investigate potential draft picks to make sure they guy isn't a knucklehead? Do they ever hire like PIs or psychologists to screen kids?
I don't know about a PI but teams do their homework.
Have you gotten any looks at Angeibel Gomez in the AFL, and if so, what were your impressions?
I know we are looking at the "whole" player, but can't we take a minute to appreciate how good Josue De Paula must be to go from Double A to be in consideration to start on the Dodgers in the playoffs?
He's very good.
Have you done much youth scouting overseas? I'd imagine a lot of that is still low-tech wild west style. Or am I naive and do these teams know every 14 year old worth looking at?
Zero personally. Some teams are more organized than others in Latin America but there's a limit to how deep into the future you can peer when you're evaluating a 14 year old. There are tons of guys, pitchers especially, who don't pop until late into their teen years.
If you were in charge of the Mariners, would you be comfortable with Young and Emerson at 2B and SS next year?
Young yes, Emerson I'd sure want to have a capable Plan B on hand.
Hello BG!
Hello Big Fan
For the past several years one of the big talking points during the postseason has been how important it is for teams to have the ability to hit home runs. Yet Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa were 29th, 27th and 22nd respectively in that category. Not to mention they were right next to each other on the team ISO leaderboard (25th thru 27th). Why does this work for them? More specifically, how has Milwaukee been able to maintain the best OBP and nearly the best walk rate over the last couple seasons with so little power?
Two slightly different things here. The home run factor in the postseason is magnified because there are fewer runs/baserunners in general, which means that homers have a disproportionate impact on run scoring relative to the regular season.
To the question of how have teams who don't really hit homers are succeeding this postseason: There are still multiple ways to be successful and there's a lot of variance in a short series.
As for Milwaukee: They have a lot of guys with really good approaches and hit tools. And, as Sam Miller said more eloquently than I'll paraphrase in one of his newsletters, there are some real benefits to being the team that hustles in an otherwise non-hustle league
It's not that they get a ton of value in the aggregate out of infield groundballs but they squeeze more out of them than anybody else.
Is S. Walcott on the major league roster and starting next spring? Timeline for J. Farmelo who has tools but has lost so much time to injuries?
Walcott I'd be very surprised, for a couple reasons. He's blocked, for one, but also not ready. I spoke with a scout who made a persuasive case that he's the kind of player who could use a full year in Triple-A.
Farmelo is another one who I don't think is on the fast track. Wouldn't be surprised if he needs most/all of '27 at Double-A. I think even an 85th-90th percentile season has him getting to Triple-A late in the summer.
After attending a lot of MiLB games at different levels I’m in awe of anyone who can ID an A ball player beyond ‘that guy is better than everyone here’ with any certainty that it means ‘he’ll play in the league’ or ‘he’s a star.’ What are markers at that level (hitter side) you found useful
Nobody's good enough to tell you with certainty how many WAR a 20 year old in A ball is going to accrue in his career, but some blend of size/athleticism/tools/physical projection can usually tell you who's got a shot to be impactful.
Did you have a chance to see Sam Horn, GDD? Does he have a future in MLB?
How concerned are you about Emerson going forward?
I still think he's going to be a good player. But if I'm trying to contend next year, I don't think I'd plan on him as a "set it and forget it" SS from day one.
Do you enjoy seeing a prospect attempt to make the knuckleballer conversion?
Sure. Tend to think more guys should play around with it.
Is there a guy in the Jays org that no-one is talking about? I was wondering if Ryan Sprock might be that guy.
I've just about wrapped up Toronto's list. He'll be on there, likely as a 40 unless sources are all over the guy in a way I'm not anticipating.
When you look at a guy like Justin Gonzales, what are the things that you'd see to say "Wow, he's going elite" as opposed to "Let's see how this goes…"
I'm more in the 'let's see how this goes' camp with him. He's got a lot going for him, and the power is clearly nuts. Odd swing, stiffer mover than most big prospects. It's not a slam dunk case where everything lines up.
What’s the deal with George Lombard Jr.? Does he have to move off the position
I don't have anticipate that. I think he can be above average at short, and I'm the low man here on his glove.
In your eyes, what happened with someone like Jasson Dominguez? Did pressure of being 'The Martian' get to him? Constant analysis of defensive miscues got to his head? Is there a post-prospect hype arc he could conceivably stumble upon? League average hitter in '25 with semi-regular at-bats…
From what I can gather, there seems to have been a sizable gap between how baseball people evaluated him as a player — both publically and with teams — and how the public perceived his talent. Eric has a theory that the baseball card community is a factor here, particularly with players from the Yankees.
And I can buy that.
As a player, he projected as a regular but not a star. Guys like that fall short all the time.
As for Dominguez himself, a second act as a 110-115 wRC+ player with shoddy defense in some kind of role — maybe more against righties than lefties? — wouldn't shock me.
Emma Rodriguez and Mike Sirota have kinda similar offensive profiles and are the same age – does erod’s injury history explain the 2 grade gap between them? Something else I’m missing?
It's a factor. The bigger thing is that it looks like Rodriguez will be vulnerable in a huge swath of the strike zone in a way that Sirota won't.
Reverse of the Dominguez question – who is the player in recent memory that baseball folks were way, way higher on than the general fan public?
This is one where different pockets will have different answers. The A's, for instance, were way higher on Esteury Ruiz… For scouts it'll often be toolsy guys with scary data… I really liked Spencer Jones the two times I saw him as a scout and was kind of oblivious to how he was a punchline online for all the strikeouts.
Hao-Yu Lee had a decent but not overwhelming rookie season. Is there another gear?
I hope so, he's so fun to watch. He's limited enough defensively that I think "good reserve where you pick your spots/stretches to play him" is the reasonable projection.
Muni’s in zone fastball issues sure came out against Cleveland. Is this a case where over 162 enough pitchers will miss the hole and he punishes but in October better and more focused arms hammer that spot until he adjusts?
Everybody suffers a little in the postseason as the competition gets tougher.
But also, stuff happens in five games
In five games from August 1 through August 6, he hit .136 /.208 /.182 with 12 K's and one double in 24 PA's.
In five games from May 6 to May 12 he hit .111 /.238 /.278 with 12 strikeouts in 21 PA's against the mighty Angels/Mariners/Royals.
Kellon Lindsay and Joendry Vargas are their stats inflated by the minor league hitting environment?
Them and everybody else this year.
Much hope left for Carson Williams? Or is he an odd man out in Tampa?
I don't think he's going to hit.
Any updated Braves news you haven't shared with us before? The trade deadline refresh was much appreciated, and there were slew of promotions after that.
Nothing beyond what I published in the AZ notes. I suspect they'll go fairly early in the list cycle.
What did Salas’ performance with the Padres do to his prospect ranking?
Very little, more because he's already 10th on our board. Not much room for us to move him!
Unless he morphs into a LF this offseason, Sean Keys seems awfully blocked in Toronto. But he's also look a lot like the kind of bat they could use, particularly with the power and patience profile. Could he be a serviceable outfielder with reps, pushing others to DH at bats? Or do the Jays look for a trade partner? They often deal with the Guardians, who sure don't seem inclined to use Bibee for much this postseason…
I don't think you're going to flip him for Tanner Bibee, if that's the question behind the question. You can find ways to get him in the game as a PH or at DH with occasional starts elsewhere. I think trying him in left and seeing how it looks is a reasonable idea. If he hits, they'll find a way to get the bat in there.
Are you taking an Amador victory lap?
No, but glad he's a relevant player for COL again and cautiously optimistic that there's still a regular in there.
You can never take a victory lap in this business.
If he’s not going to hit is Carson Williams the in-house all glove SS when Walls gets expensive?
Could be, yeah.
You mentioned J. Gonz. was stiff. I've seen that critique for lots of guys. Have you ever seen someone get considerably less stiff? Like they went all yoga and loosened up their core?
Usually goes the other way. There was a really good article 10 years ago or so about how Justin Verlander revived his career by limbering up, but that was more of a case where he'd let his flexibility atrophy a little bit rather than finding something brand new.
How much of a leap do you expect Konkor Griffin to make next year?
A pretty big one. I expect him to be very good next year.
Were you able to look into some of the low lower Mariners starters like Jack Bowery?
Thank you for your patience. Bowery/Easterly look like HM/35+ types. I like the strikes but they're succeeding by leaning on good execution of shapely but not particularly nasty secondaries. Never say never in this era but they don't strike me as especially projectable, either.
What do you make of what Vance Honeycutt did late in the season in AA and so far in the Arizona Fall League?
I liked him more than I thought I was going to. Flawed hitter, still see a path to value as a good glove/danger bat off the bench even if he's pretty limited at the plate.
Can Lazaro Montes become Murakami-lite (poor BA, acceptable OBP(.320's-.330's?), 35+ HRs?
That's the projection right there.
Does Anthony Eyanson have a chance to break camp in the rotation, or are we likely looking at May/Jun debut?
~90/10 the latter.
Any thoughts on Nehomar Ochoa at the AFL? Classic big tool, big swing & miss profile the Dana Brown-led Astros fell for.
Bench bat.
Who will emerge from the scrum to become the Cardinals' near- and long-term catcher?
Reminds me of the situation the Jays were in about five years ago, lot of potential options, tough to go wrong. I've been a Bernal fan for a while, why stop now.
Best baseball comp for Arch Manning?
Jackson Holliday?
How badly has Winston Santos fallen in rankings this year :'(
Sigh. From a valuation perspective, clearly a lot. We'll see how stubborn I'm feeling come the Rangers list.
What's Kendry Chourio's upside?
Sonny Gray.
What happened with Elmer Rodriguez this season? So you still see him being successful in the majors as he was in AAA?
Very effective in AAA, major league cameos shone a bright light on his crudeness as a strike thrower. Still like him as a GB-generating SP prospect.
Thanks for all the answers!
And thank you for all the questions, always fun to hang out. Disappointed about the lack of enclave chat but like that we got to hit on a bunch of different teams/some players we don't often get to here. Let's do it again next eek.
Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.