Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10-20-26
Hello everybody, let's get to it.
As an evaluator, what have you been able to take from the sustained player acquisition and development successes of the Rays and Brewers?
Two of the prime examples of how holistic player evaluation is the right path forward. Both with great front offices, scouting staffs, and dev operations. Hand in glove operations.
I need a long-term young dynasty catcher. Who's most likely to have a solid MLB career out of Leo Bernal, Vahn Lackey, or Nathan Flewelling?
Lackey but I like all three.
How has Charles Davalan looked at 2B?
Promising but needs reps. Athleticism and range to do it…
Hi Brendan! Thanks for doing these. Every year, it's interesting to see evals and rankings update over the offseason even though there doesn't appear to be a lot of new information added. What's happening there? How do you approach an offseason where you have little new additional info.
I'm not sure I understand your question. We've got a year of new info to work with. Sometimes that changes the forecast, often it doesn't, but either way it's worth reviewing the year and checking in.
Has your opinion of Kade Anderson changed after seeing his four seam with the MLB ball?
I wish we'd been a little cooler on him on the midseason update. His FB grade will go down.
Re: evals over the offseason — apologies, mostly thinking about how you might approach looking at a player or an org given just new perspective but not necessarily any new looks.
Lot of video/data analysis. Even a guy who looks fairly similar might have added a pitch, and it's good to go in and take a glance at how that looks on video.
What do you think Jared Grimdlinger’s path looks like? Definitely not going to pitch? How quickly do you figure he’ll be expected to move?
LAA sources say they're going to try the two-way path. Harder to go quickly that way but fun/exciting nonetheless.
I went through old scouting reports on other sites and saw Profar had present 70 grade SS defense. Was that a misread or did Profar change over time?
There were some injuries in there but the 70 might've been a little hot. I was a neophyte back then though.
Who will be the next good homegrown starting pitcher for the Dodgers?
Zazueta is the leader in the clubhouse.
Years ago when Moniak was selected first overall, I read a report that when he showed up to camp in the spring he already looked less athletic. Do you recall your first look at him that Spring?
Didn't have one, but given that he's still playing a little center in big league games ten years after he was drafted, don't think athleticism was necessarily the prroblem there.
I attended the AFL triple header in Goodyear Saturday and then Glendale at Salt River yesterday. Dax Kilby looked awesome yesterday. His speed was impressive as was how hard he hit his triple and ground rule double. How do you measure speed for your evals? I notice that FGs has Kilby as a 55 spd while MLB and BA have him at a 60. Curious what you look at to grade it.
Home to first time is the anchor and I might throttle up or down a half grade depending on how playable it seems to be. Good example of a tool that's easier to see in all its glory when you're in the park. You get a better look at first step on defense or on the bases, and some video feeds make it tricky to get an accurate run time, too.
Amusingly, I know of a scout who once got into a ton of trouble for putting 60 run times on 30 runners because he was doing it on video and didn't know that all the camera angles weren't synced up.
How much has Nimmala risen in the last week and a bit?
Holding steady.
Maybe a tick down, I'm not ready to move him off of SS yet but I can see it going that way a little more every time I watch him.
Have you seen Nathan Flewelling? How would you rate his catcher D in particular his framing. How to do you grade framing when watching players?
Framing, for me, is easier on video; there's just so much else going on in the park, I have a hard time getting a good feel for it unless I'm really paying attention to just that at the expense of other stuff. But I'm looking for mobility, low stance, strong wrist, limited head movement. If most of the physical stuff looks good but the technique isn't there yet, that's fine, we can project there.
Flewelling himself does a lot of that well, he's low to the ground and can funnel balls toward the plate from all directions.
Hey Brendan! In your Pitcher AFL notes you wrote that Susana had split his breaking ball into two shapes in your October 10th look. The shapes were pretty blended in his AAA looks. Did you hear anything about how that transpired in the AFL and whether it was an explicitly intentional change?
There was enough velo separation between his slowest and fastest ones that I figured it was two pitches; he may have just been adding/subtracting. Regardless, I like that he's able to mix it up a little bit.
Brendan! Right now is generally when my friends and I start our generalized plans for our annual spring training trip. What’s your general feeling for if there will be any games in late-February next year? Minor leaguers will still be under contract, right? If that doesn’t happen we’re also considering Cape Cod, or putting it off until October for the AFL. What’s your general feel for which one would be more enjoyable for a bunch of depressed middle-aged nerds?
Really tough year to make plans, unfortunately. My crystal ball isn't any better than anybody else's. Maybe it's the hopeless optimist in me, but if I had to guess, I suspect we're looking at a similar deal to what we had in 2022, maybe with a few missed games, maybe not.
As for your situation specifically, if you have the flexibility to make plans just a few weeks in advance, you might actually get a pretty good deal on hotels and attendance at big league games will be pretty light, which is a positive in my book.
Alternatively, if you're cool with just going to the backfields, plan away.
Most of the Orioles players in the Fall League seem to be doing well. Anything caught your attention in particular?
Pleasantly surprised by Honeycutt, I guess. More in a 40-ish sort of way than huge impact, but he didn't look overmatched at the plate.
Did Cayden Wallace show enough this season to restore the 40 status he had when he was in the KC system?
That feels about right off the cuff, would need to dive into the defense to say for sure. He's reached the AA power grade he's had here for a while. Approach is not good though.
What position will Ace Reese eventually play?
1B/LF.
I saw the Mets just decided to hire more scouts. This is *maybe* more of a rant than a question, but why did so many teams decide to cut their scouting staffs in recent years, and is there any chance that this particular World Series matchup induces more teams to think about beefing back up in their scouting department?
A combination of things. Some people think that the data is robust enough that you don't need scouts. Some leaders don't like that scouts come from a different perspective and have a different view on players. Some scouts don't do themselves any favors.
If you're the White Sox, do you hold Colson Montgomery for another year? Can he improve?
Yes, numbers tanked right when he got hurt. I buy that he was playing through something in the second half .
I have never visited the backfields, can you give a brief or not suggestion of how to do that?
Each splits its minor leaguers into four or five teams. Those teams play games on the backfields which are usually but not always (Athletics, Giants, Reds/Guardos kind of) very close to the stadium. There are usually but not always two games going on simultaneously (A/A+ teams or AA/AAA teams). There are a few fans but not many, more scouts/family/autograph hounds than anything else. It's a good time.
End of season review on Josiah Ragsdale?
Pretty similar to the midseason eval: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trade-deadline-prospects-guide-m…
What's David Hagaman's ceiling and ETA?
Ceiling of a no. 3, he'll likely be a 45 this winter, maybe 45+. Could reach the desert next year, take your pick on a 27 or 28 ETA.
I should admit, of all the things I grade/project here, the ETA is the thing I spend the least time on. It's hard enough to project on the tools, and the timeline is often not dictated by talent and performance alone anyway.
If you’re the Sox, do you feel like you have a Story/Arias situation? If so, what do you do about it this winter?
Good problem to have. Cynically, it gives you an excuse to delay the clock on Arias. In the unlikely event that Story is both good and healthy at short, great, if not you have the guy you really want there anyway just about ready to go.
has Walcott’s gotten enough work at SS in the AFL to quell any concerns about his defense there? will be interesting to see how Texas manages Jung and Seager going into next year
I'd shift the framing. It's less a concern to quell than a case where Walcott is going to have to continually prove that he can play short throughout his career.
Hi Brendan, do you have any intel on why Derek Curiel didnt see any MiLB time this year? Coming from LSU I would have thought straight to A or A+ was in the plan. I guess the approach worked well enough with Murf Gray, but seems odd to me.
Fairly typical for first round picks to not go out to A ball at the end of the year. Some do, some don't, wouldn't read too much into it.
With the benefit of hindsight, who were some guys you were way too high on this year, and why were you too high?
There are obviously a lot of guys who didn't reach their projection, but there were always reasons for putting them where I/we did. I think the ones that bug me the most are the ones where data led me astray. Putting too much weight on metal bat exit velos, over-grading a fastball due to shape generated with a minor league ball, things like that.
If the question is more like "why were you too high on Dylan Beavers?" I think you can generally follow the trail of thought from the writeup.
do you expect an over correction to the rabbit ball used in the minors from this year?
I don't really know what to expect. My guess is it will shift back toward where it was before but who knows. The league isn't great at making consistent baseballs.
Is there anything worth reading into from the 2026 draft class at all yet?
Bits and pieces. Couple scouts told me they think Ace Reece looked more hitterish than they expected, which is interesting. But more things like that than a "it really looks like Team X screwed that one up" so far.
Klaw said Aidan Miller looked good during the AFL, did you get a look at him too?
I didn't, sorry, kept missing him. Pretty sure Eric has got him a couple times though, better question for him.
If you had the 1.01 draft pick in a dynasty league this winter, who would you take with that pick?
Not a fantasy guy but PCA/Witt/Elly/Caminero seem most appealing depending on your risk tolerance and positional scarcity needs.
Who is the starting OF on Opening Day 2027, whenever that may be, for the Colorado Rockies?
Carrigg.
with how relievers are used in the postseason now (essentially every game for some), does that affect FV for pitchers projected to be late-inning relievers? Cade Smith ran out of gas but threw more innings than all the Cleveland staff except for Messick/Williams
It's an interesting question. All projections are tricky, relievers moreso than just about anyone else. The very best relief prospects don't reliably turn into dominant closers. And on the other side of the coin, how could you project Cade Smith to halve his walk rate the second he got to the big leagues?
Practically speaking, I'm finding that I'm projecting more and more guys who are starting in the minors into relief roles, and leaving their FV's higher than I perhaps would have a few years ago.
Are you glued to Peacock for this absurd day game tipoff for the NBA's opening day?
No. Bad opinion incoming but… I don't think basketball works.
Anyone from the back end of the top 100 list poised to take a leap on next year's list based on their 2nd half?
I imagine 5-10 will. Kilby for sure. Luis Hernandez wouldn't surprise me. Maybe a guy like Michael Arroyo, now that he's played a little bit in the big leagues, and played well. I'll be pushing to knock him ahead of Celesten at the very least.
Piggybacking on the reliever question, the recent Jaffe article highlights Ashby and points out that he could've won NLCS MVP. If you're starting a 7 game playoff series, would you rather have the lights-out fireman reliever or the 4.00 FIP #3 starter? I'd want the reliever, as I'm sure most would, but on opening day, would the answer be the same? Does (or should) that play a role in projecting players, or are we now introducing another tricky variable into an already tricky art?
To complicate things further: I'm not so sure that the no. 3 starter couldn't just be the fireman reliever.
Any thoughts on Jake Cook's first season in pro ball,?
It was okay. Speed played a little better on the bases than it did in college, which is a good sign. Arrow flat or slightly down.
RE: Rockies OF… that's a LOT of ground for Cole Carigg to cover by himself…
ah jeez, I read that as CF. I assume they'll run it back with McCarthy and Moniak in the corners… Boring answer, I know.
Who in your mind was a "can't miss" prospect when you wrote them up (for either us or PIT) who ended up missing? Why did they miss? If for injury, can you also think of an example that wasn't an injury miss?
I don't think anybody is "can't" miss but I had a big grade on Tovar, and if you'd have told me at the end of his 3.5 win 2024 season that, two years later, his walk/strikeout numbers will go in the right direction AND he'd have a 55 wRC+ I'd have been floored.
Answer there is that the approach got exploited in a big, big way.
What’s the updated super bull case for kilby? Well rounded regular kinda guy, or might there be another gear even on top of that?
The super bullish case is that he can hit .300 with a little power and play above average defense at short.
It's quite a ceiling.
Wait, why doesn't basketball work? I'm not a fan either but can you explain?
Block/charge/no call is just a vibe.
Since higher draft picks produce the most value on average, do amateur scouting departments focus most of their resources on the top two rounds (say, top 75) or so some teams try to focus on building greater org depth and look to hit on later rd picks as well?
Kind of both. The big picks get a lot of attention. Multiple decision makers will go personally see and talk to the seven-figure guys. But there are still plenty of people around pouring their heart and soul into looking for diamonds in the rough.
Does that make Veen or Condon attractive trade pieces? Challenge trade to a pitching rich team possibly (do pitching rich teams even exist given the number of pitchers used by teams per year these days…)
It's worth giving Veen another look but the swing and miss is really scary there. The way the Rockies have developed Condon is different enough from my eval of him that I feel the need to dig deeper to figure out what the heck is going on.
had zero idea that the NBA was trying out day games for opening "night" guess I'm not playing fantasy basketball this year
I didn't either From a distance, the league seems like it's in kind of a weird place. I think it's true in all sports but maybe in basketball especially, a lot of the energy seems to come from stuff not happening on the court.
Do you think draft pick trading will make it into this CBA?
I'd be pleasantly surprised.
Updated views on Tai Peete? Don't want to overreact to a small sample but between AA/AFL he's been great against better competition and has shown better swing decisions recently. Is a 45 FV fair now?
I would not go crazy on AFL production. I'm encouraged that he's continuing to make things work as he's facing better pitching but my feelings on him haven't changed much. He's the kind of player I'd project as a regular as a scout, but one that teams have to value lower than that because he's so risk/reward.
If pick trading made its way into the CBA, what teams do you think would be most poised to take advantage? Who would be most aggressive in acquiring picks, and who would be aggressive in trading them away?
The Rays would find a way to have 40 picks in the first ten rounds.
Ah, the vibe, just like a check swing (nothing defines "offering at the pitch" other than the umpires vibes)
There's some of this in all sports. Pass interference, penalties in soccer, the strike zone at times in baseball history, etc. "Can I legally go to the hoop?" seems more fundamentally problematic to me but… Like I said, it's a bad opinion. We all have 'em.
I saw Teruaki Sato was posted., but I didn’t see him on The Board. Any guess where he’ll slot in?
Sneak peak at Ben's list… He's in 50 FV territory there.
Rank the Ethans"
Salas, Holliday, Pecko, Conrad, Roberts… I'm running out of Ethans, please send help.
Maybe a better question for an article but what's something you think rookie scouts often overstate/understate relative to veteran scouts? What about something veterans more often miss than rookies?
You get better at projecting the longer you do it. You start to get a feel for how certain bodies and traits will age. For veterans, as the game changes, there's a risk that you either don't adapt or just get really frustrated with how modern baseball is played, and that can seep into the evaluations a little bit.
Caceras, A Gomez, Frias, Renteria…you get one to start a team with, who are you taking?
Leaning Gomez, caveat that I need to give Renteria a longer look. Caceres feels a little out of place here.
Sometimes we just have prospects, whom, no matter what we read about them, are skeptical they are ever going to be more than prospects. My recent one has been Tink Hence. Currently, it is Jamie Arnold. Do you have a prospect you are just skeptical of, regardless of hopeful promise.
It's interesting you mentioned Hence, I had a very similar feeling to what you were describing. As a general matter, I tend to be skeptical of the corner guys with light power but good minor league swing data.
Think I'll shut it down here today. Thanks as always for the questions, we'll do it again next week.
Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
What would be the 3-4 most important stats you would focus on a pitcher/hitter?