Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10/27/2026
Hello everybody. Good sports day today, Serie A is going already, some League Cup to follow. AFL, of course, and apparently another baseball game of modest import tonight. Should be fun. Let's get to it.
Thanks for the chat! Thoughts on Zion Rose? Eric mentioned wanting to see Zion Rose try some CF—any idea if the Royals plan to try that out?
I liked Rose and agree that it'd be interesting to see him in CF. Not sure yet if the Royals are going to explore that, it's on my list to ask when I get to their system.
What's your take on Buster Posey essentially hand-waving away any potential injury to a Giants pitcher in the name of improving their stuff? They definitely need to do that as an organization, but I'm not sure it's the best idea to say out loud to the media that they're going to push guys to a breaking point and oh well if they break.
Do you have a link?
What do you make of Tai Peete's AFL? Is he in the Cardinals T10 ? Is he a future T100 guy?
Obviously he's crushing it in Arizona. He's a guy I'm rooting for, but I don't think a whole lot has changed about him or the profile. He's a high risk player with a lot of swing and miss risk on spin and big upside if it all clicks. Top 10 in the system, everyday projection for me as a scout… Does that translate to the Top 100? Instinct is no, but we'll see how it shakes out.
Do you miss ash bats? The sound of contact just doesn't hit the same anymore
I miss the aesthetic, too. If the league ever decides to get serious about making it easier to hit the ball but harder to hit it over the fence, ash bats could have a role to play.
Enjoyed Eric's writeup of Dax Kilby. Who do you like more between Dax and Yostin Pena in the Yankees system and why?
Dax. In part because I think Dax is perfectly fine at short.
Pretty sure I haven’t asked it yet (and apologies if I have), but for Deyvison De Los Santos, is there much to be read into his contact rate improvement at AAA, or is this just improvements from repeating the level and that there’s not really a meaningful change in his profile at the plate?
It's up a little bit, but 73% for a bat-only guy in his sophomore year of AAA isn't great. Still projects as a bench bat/Asia masher.
I am so enthused to see the Brewer – Rays WS (although as a Reds fan watching the Brewers success is a bit painful). I admire both organizations for combining Analytics, Scouting, and Player Development attached to a clear organizational philosophy. I think the Cardinals are well on their way to similar success. My Reds – well….. How to you evaluate combining those three arms and organizational philosophy. Is one more important than another in your view or is organizational philosophy that is most important supported by the three arms of success?
I don't really think about it in terms of one being more important than the others, you have to do all of it to be competitive, particularly if you can't spend your way out of lousy PD/scouting. The consequences for being complete dogshit analytically are enormous in a way that they don't seem to be for having the worst scouting/dev staffs, so in that sense… It's important not to be awful there. But at this point, I don't think the gap between the sixth and twenty-fourth best group analytically is all that big.
Eh, his comments seem fine. Everybody understands that this is where the game is at right now.
I was surprised that Franklin Primera was not on the top 100 given his amazing performance so far on every level. What is there to be concerned about in Franklin's profile other than being in Single A
His approach and long swing are going to be stress tested by better pitching/more velocity and he's not super projectable. I suspect he'll be a pick to click.
How do you know when a ranked prospect just has an off year vs a complete change in valuation? Thinking how Francisca went from a 45 here after the '24 season to not even a 35+ last year to now right back to 45 again.
It can be tricky, and also hard to communicate what a down year means. Oftentimes when this happens, a player's ceiling doesn't change, but his odds of reaching it go down. That can shift a player down from an FV perspective.
I would also say… Without placing a value judgment on it, because I think you can argue for either approach… I think Eric is more inclined to move a player's FV, and I'm more inclined to let things play out over a long period. These are tendencies rather than absolutes, but something to keep in mind as you read our lists this cycle.
If Kristian Campbell was a prospect right now, what fv do you think he would have and what would change?
40+ and glad I don't have to commit to that.
What would be the minor league level equivalency of AFL pitching quality? I see B-ref shows 5.85 ERA, 10K/9 and 6.5BB/9 as league averages. Is that like Cal League caliber? Or worse, Complex-type competition? Or is there no direct comparison here? Thx Brendan.
It varies so much, the KBO isn't a bad comparison in that sense, from an overall talent perspective. The walk rates are very much of the complex, though.
Sell high on Gasser in dynasty after last night?
If someone's willing to buy him as more than a no. 4, sure
how controllable are diet/sleep/etc in the minor leagues? my understanding is the conditions are much worse which makes me suspect there are a lot of gains being left on the table
Conditions are way better than they were 10 years ago. Some teams do a better job than others of procuring good housing/providing healthy meals, but even the worst are here are doing a lot more than was common in the early-mid 2010s.
Of course, you're still dealing with teenagers and early 20 somethings and like everyone else at that age, a lot of them… will eat, drink, or sleep sub-optimally. That's just life.
Why were you so low on Cam Cannarella and Brandon Compton? They both had a wrc+ of 149 and 156, and Cannarella is a consensus top 100 prospect on every other list in baseball. Are you guys going to change there grades for upcoming season?
I think the reasons are clear from their writeups… It's fine to disagree. They both performed so well after publication that I definitely want to give them a fresh look, certainly possible that I was light, it happens. Cannarella's defense in particular is something that I agonized over at the time. The reputation didn't match the tape, but the tape is also not as good/reliable as the eye test in person. It's possible that if I saw him in the park, I would've felt differently.
What's the next experimental rule in the AFL? Having the outfielders wear a ball and chain?
I think the experimentation is broadly fine. I kind of liked watching outfielders need to go back on the ball. I'd tweak it so that they don't have to sit practically on the foul line, see what that looks like.
Have any of the A's arms at the fall league caught your eye? I know Richardson has struck everyone out but I'm wondering if that's a blip or more to look forward to of him
You named the one.
Hey Brendan! Eric said in his chat Briggs McKenzie looked like diet MadBum, what have your thoughts on him been?
Should we just sneak peak a full blurb here?
Why not
McKenzie received Atlanta’s biggest bonus in the 2025 draft, signing for a cool $3 million. A year of pro instruction and weight training have worked wonders, as McKenzie has filled out considerably and added a few ticks of velocity. After operating either side of 90 mph this time last year, he now sits 92-94 while touching a little higher, and he could have more growth ahead of him.
McKenzie is an athletic and projectable lefty with a clean, if long, arm swing and a deceptive delivery. That motion helps his stuff and pitchability play up, and they’re already quite good to begin with. He can move his fastball up and to both sides of the plate, and run his long and tight sweeping breaking ball on and off the dish as well. His fading CH is inconsistent but flashed above average a few times during my look at him in the AFL.
The southpaw was only in Arizona because injuries took a big bite out of his 2026 campaign. He threw just 26 innings during the regular season, and at one point was on the 60 day IL with nerve irritation in his pitching elbow. While that sounds a little scary, he is back on the mound and looked no worse for wear in the Fall League. Projecting outward, McKenzie has mid-rotation traits. He has sufficient velocity and seems likely to develop the command. And while his arsenal is still a little lean, there’s plenty of time for him to add a second breaking ball or a two seamer. While we want to see more length and durability, and perhaps another tick on the gun, before we consider bumping him onto our Top 100 list, I anticipate he has another gear and he’ll be a Pick to Click for me this winter.
There are orgs that are good at getting their young pitchers to add velocity, and orgs that are good at teaching their young pitchers new pitches. But are their orgs that are good at improving command?
Boston was the first org that came to mind. Seattle's had some success here, too.
How does the Royals' Brooks Bryan look for Surprise? Thanks!
Powerful. 35+/40 area as a thumper from the left side.
What have you seen from Padres prospects in the Arizona Fall League? Specifically, Alex McCoy, Ty Harvey and Winyer Chourio. Francis Pena, too.
McCoy and Harvey were the most interesting of the group. McCoy's power might just be an 80, that gives him a path to value even if he's pretty flawed everywhere else. Harvey's a good athlete behind the plate, like the bat speed. Suspect he'll stay in the Top 10 of that system even after a rough year in the Cal League. Says something about both him and SD's system.
do you ever think about how traits/tools fit into a team context while scouting? eg. the arraez fit with the phillies, or like how a prospect might add defensive value to a poor defensive major league team
All the time, usually more from a developmental context than immediate team need.
considering his hot run, whats preventing arjun nimmala from taking the next step up the T100 rankings and/or FV rating?
That he might not be a shortstop.
Assuming the Red Sox get Franklin Arias in the lineup relatively near the beginning of 2027 (if there's a 2027), what's a reasonable expectation for him next year? Does his peak look something like Michael Young's good years with the Rangers? His EV numbers seem more "average to plus" than "25+ homers on the reg"
Arias is a better defender. The dream here is Lindor Lite.
Re: changes to FV, how much of that difference with Eric (I understand it's a friendly disagreement) is scouting philosophy vs journalistic philosophy? Seems like player development is hard to report, because you can't just keep running articles that say, "still waiting to see how this plays out long-term." The internet wants content!
I don't even know if it's a disagreement, more of an initial instinct. I don't know if there's a "right" answer to how sensitive FV should be to performance, it's so context specific.
And you can find examples where both approaches were justified. Like, Hartman was sending signals right away this spring that he was a different guy than he was in '25. Moving quickly was the right answer there. Meanwhile, Ethan Salas had a rough couple years but the tools never really changed…
follow up q, is it arjun's defense then? is it range/technique/arm?
Range just okay, he's not that quick, footwork doesn't look great, can scatter his throws when he's not lined up well. Love the hands, growing chance it all plays better at third.
Brendan! Piggybacking on the Posey question (I’ve not seen those quotes either): at what point do you think it becomes a question of morality about pitcher injuries? I’m speaking as a father of a 12yo who A) plays baseball, B) has 99th percentile velo for his age, and C) can’t hit a lick. As a dad I’d really prefer he was a position player, but his path forward (at least to HS /JuCo, or university if he makes it that far) is almost certainly tied to his arm. I realize teams aren’t coercing players against their will to go to Driveline and gain velo only to blow out, but at some point does a front office become (if not legally at least morally) culpable when they tell a kid “you’d be a real prospect if you just threw a little harder”?
Complicated question, no easy answers, but very different context in the professional game versus teenage ball. At your son's age, the focus should be on having fun. Run screaming from anyone who wants to max out a 13 year old's stuff plus, or who wants to throw him all the time.
For the professionals, it's a different equation. There are a lot of risks inherent to being a professional athlete, and for a pitcher, subjecting your arm to a greater risk of injury in the search of better stuff is part of the equation. That said, I do think teams should feel some moral obligation to lower their injury rates, and I think players should be educated about which teams tend to get their guys hurt, and which do a better job keeping them healthy.
There's also a competitive angle here, too. At a certain point, you have enough injuries that you're doing something wrong. Like, Miami's injury rate is counter productive.
How has Charles Davalan looked at second in the AFL?
Misio improving his walk rate from 13.4% to 14.4% to 11.8% to 6.6% since 2023 is an XX% outcome ??
97.54th
I pulled him from travel ball and only have him in Little League (juniors) because I didn’t like the vibes I was getting. Maybe I’m costing him long term but like you said, I want him to have a great time and make a lot of happy memories.
Be wary of teams that play in a lot of tournaments. They're fun, but unless the team is bringing a ton of pitching and has a responsible coach, the good ones can get run into the ground.
One other question: quite a bit has been made about the Rays as of late and how they’ve utilized their sinkers, especially cases where pitchers are able to tunnel them effectively with their four-seamers. If this becomes part of the next big trend where teams try to develop this with their pitchers, which orgs particularly stand out as the best suited towards using this strategy?
The usual suspects.
I guess as optics go, I would have liked to see something like, "we're going to do everything we can to keep our guys healthy through this process," rather than, "no one is gonna get in trouble for pushing a guy so hard he breaks."
Personally, I thought Posey hit his marks there. I also don't care that much about optics. What people do is more important than what they say, which is in turn more important than how the media/social media perceives what they say.
How do ash bats make it easier to hit the ball?
They don't (at least as far as I'm aware, I suspect we'll learn more about bats and bat technology in the future) but my understanding is that they don't hit the ball as hard so, in a world where it's easier to hit but you don't want the homer rate to explode, their use could theoretically help maintain balance. Speculation on speculation here.
Dax Kilby follow up—what should the defense development Plan A be? Play him at SS as long as he can kinda handle it? Or switch to an easier position now to speed his path to the majors?
I would just play him at SS. I thought he looked like a 50/55 type there and spoke to two scouts who felt similarly. I've also heard that at least one team has him graded that way based strictly on their defensive metrics, for what that's worth.
Now, maybe he grows off of it, or maybe he'd be so good in center that you could justify moving him there based on that. But just from what I've seen, I wouldn't be in any hurry to move him.
You had Angel de los Santos as a long term pick to click. How we feeling about him now?
Similarly! Better than my other two year dart throw guess.
How repeatable is the Bauersaissance, really? Even if you accept that MIL is better at post-prospect development, that doesn't mean they can Bauersify any equivalent hitter who's bouncing around the league. How do they know who they cam help? Is it initially luck–they just have to get a guy and see? Can they predict it? Or is it totally luck and I'm giving them too much credit even for Bauers himself?
Can they reliably turn a 40 into a 60? Probably not. Do I think they can turn 35+/40 types into 45's more often than most other teams? Yes.
How did Salas look to your eyes in his callup time in September/playoffs? Any shading to his grades based on his MLB looks?
He looked great. He's (obviously) much closer to actualizing the future grades than he was a year ago and the 55 future power looks low since he's 20 years old and basically already there.
He's a great prospect.
I saw Eric said he'd put him in the top 5 in his last chat and, yeah, that seems about right.
So….can you confirm that you're working on the Atlanta list?!?!
I'm 98% done with it.
Favorite non top 100 LHP in the milb as of today and why?
Two for the price of one. Justin Lamkin's a fun watch as a pitchability guy who can kind of toy with hitters. I'm very interested in monitoring Kash Mayfield's development with Detroit.
Eric seems to slightly revised his confidence in Bonemer's bat upwards- do you agree with this? Is there a path to him being an all star level LF even if he's a LF?
He's scary, I think toward the bottom of the Top 100 is the right place to slot in the guy with a scary swing and limited defensive value… but also a lot of power and pretty good barrel feel.
Any prospects that you love but you have worries that they are majorly blocked by the current big league club around their debut?
No, talent pushes its way through eventually. The closest thing to this was River Ryan w/LAD.
You mentioned a few weeks ago that you were working on lists. Can you share what we should expect over the next month or two?
99.87% done with Toronto, close to that with Atlanta, ~90% done with Boston. After that I might start on Texas… From there, no plans. I'll try to keep folks informed on a rolling basis where possible. The two things that kind of push a system up or down are the number of potential T100 guys (higher priority to do quickly) and the teams who have a lot of talent coming up from the DSL (these get pushed back on the off chance we can get a meaningful look in the spring).
Eric has done that for a few years now and it makes a ton of sense.
Does Seth Hernandez have major reliever risk long term or are you a believer in his ability to be a starter 5+ years from now?
Every pitcher has some reliever risk, but Hernandez's is about as low as can be for a teenage flamethrower. He's really good.
non-prospect related, but what do you make of Victor Mesa's season? Just a late-bloomer or did he really benefit from change of scenery/team better at player development?
Little of column A, little of column B. He looks like a good player going forward. Curious to see if he gets much ROY consideration.
Do you think that Dzierwa has ace potential? If not, who in the MILB do you think currently has that no. 1 ceiling?
Good pitching prospect, but ace is a little hot there. Seth Hernandez and Ryan Sloan might be the only two I'd project as aces right now.
Can David Sandlin establish himself in the CWS rotation next year?
Yes.
I’ve seen some notes from Arizona recently about the outfield positioning rules they’re testing, which seem to effectively boost doubles and (especially) triples. Any thoughts on types of prospects who would look better/worse to you under those rules, if adopted at MLB? Just a boost to fast corner outfielders or would it impact hitting grades as well?
Speed in the outfield becomes imperative. Fourth outfielders with wheels and contact skill but not a ton of pop would get a lot more valuable.
As would groundball pitchers, I suspect.
Charlie Condon and Josue De Paula have to get an early look in 27 correct?
De Paula for all practical purposes has arrived. I don't know exactly how the Dodgers sort out the roster, and I can't guarantee that the answer is JDP is in the Opening Day lineup and stays there for 155 games, but he'll play a ton. Condon I would think is about ready to go but, as I said last week, Colorado's approach with him raises questions that require further investigation.
In retrospect, why didn't Ashby get developed as a starter? Was it health, command, a little of both?
He… did? He even made 19 big league starts in '22.
If you were the Brewers and decided not to bring Bauers back, what would your confidence level be of 1B shaking out to be some combination of Vaughn/Fischer/Burke?
Vaughn definitely part of the solution. Burke/Fischer have a shot to grow into a role there in 2027 but I are probably not part of the Opening Day plan. You're probably either committing to playing Vaughn there every day or looking for a Nate Lowe type to platoon.
Have you seen Ramcell Medina of the Royals at all recently. He seemed like a guy you were intrigued on a year or two ago, but his power hasn't really shown up at all in games like it was projected it might. Thanks a lot.
Stock down, didn't hit much on the complex. Raw power was 30 grade.
Curious about high rated prospects making it into Show in last 2-3 years but still young enough to bloom maybe this year; Based upon your evaluations, give us 2-3 position player guys you still think just need more time. Love the chats.
Cam Smith might have another gear. Amador showed signs of life at the end of the year. For a deep shot, I'd like to see Max Muncy get a healthy year…
when it comes to fast risers who end up getting shots in the MLB (Leo Bernal this year, Michael Harris in the past), can we chalk this up to the club identifies something they like more than the public?
Sometimes yeah. Sometimes its just org philosophy to push quickly. I wouldn't throw Bernal into that category though, he's moved at about a level per year.
Crazy to think the presumptive WS champions have the #1 prospect in the game knocking on the door. What is the plan with Made in 2027 if you're the Brewers? Start at AAA? What if he signs a contract extension? Does he supplant Pratt who has been leaky in the postseason at SS?
What's crazy is that this has happened a few times in recent memory. Langford was ranked second and was the Opening Day starter for the defending champs, and then Roki was the top guy on the 100 prior to the 2025 season.
As for the plan on Made, no need to rush, AAA would be just fine out of the gate.
Looking back at the Cubs farm post their 2020-2023 rebuild, they had a top 5 (maybe even #1 farm system) that produced basically PCA, Busch, and nobody else. How much of that was an entire industry miss, overvaluation of a big market team's prospects, or just regular prospect hit/miss cycle?
Was it a miss? Eric had nine 50 FV or better Cubs prospects on his 2024 list, and it was ranked as the second best system overall at the time: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings/202…
With a pretty big grade on PCA, too.
Think I'll shut it down here for today. Thanks as always for the questions, we'll do it again next week. Enjoy the rest of the WS and AFL.
Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
“ Complicated question, no easy answers, but very different context in the professional game versus teenage ball. At your son’s age, the focus should be on having fun.”
Thank you!!!
I think Brendan interpreted that last question about the Cubs system to mean the opposite of what I read it as: I think the questioner was asking whether the industry systematically overrated the Cubs system, not whether Eric and others “missed” by under-ranking them. (I suspect the answer will be that many systems chock full of great prospects don’t produce that much — Look at the recent Orioles, etc.: “it’s baseball” as Dan Wilson might say.)