Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10/7
Any idea what happened to Aiva Arquette at the end of the season? Went on the IL with 2 days left and find any indication why
edited
No, and unfortunately my Marlins go-to-sources for stuff like this got fired.
If you are in charge of the Giants where are you starting the following players next year? Flora, Josuar, Level, Hernandez, Kilen
Flora: Double-A
Josuar: A-ball
Level: High-A
Hernandez: Complex
Kilen: Double-A
How has Zion Rose looked in AFL?
Saw him on the backfields, where he hit everything. Didn't get much of Surprise and he wasn't in the lineup there when I did. But he looks hitterish.
Does Henry Bolte have another gear beyond what he showed this season?
I don't think so. He already hit for power than you'd think for someone with a 60%+ ground ball rate and a lot of strikeouts.
Any insights on Jack O’Dowd’s ability to stick at catcher? Has been rougher so far but he’s still newish to the position
Didn't look good. Arm very light for it, couple pop times in the 2.15 range yesterday.
Jake Monroe a borderline top 100?
No. Has barrel feel but that's the only tool. Fringy at third, oppo shooter with below average power.
Are you more of an Owen Carey or Connor Essenburg guy?
Essenburg. I don't want to overreact to a few AFL games but Carey looked ordinary this past week.
Can Braxton Bragg get back to being a well regarded maybe mid rotation arm?
I'd take the under. Saw him last week, sat 92-94, breaking ball looked just okay.
Would you rather have Kevin Alvarez or Xavier Neyens out of the Astros' system?
Alvarez. I'm not sure Neyens can hit.
Who goes from Worcester to Boston this winter/spring? Arias I should hope, but I'm wondering about the long-awaited Duran trade opening up a spot for Campbell. Are there other good fits?
Red Sox list will be out fairly early in the cycle, which will presumably answer this in a lot of detail. Arias will be up early, possibly Opening Day depending on what Boston does this winter. As for Campbell, he's going to have to hit his way back into town.
How has Demetrio Crisantes and Patrick Forbes looked so far, if you've had a chance to see them?
Did not see Forbes; Crisantes was his usual self. Fast, good barrel feel. Better than a lot of the pitchers he'll face.
A follow-up on the Alvarez-Neyens question. Is Albert Fermin a comparable prospect to Alvarez?
No.
So since the Dbacks have a bloated payroll, bad farm system, and way too many holes, do you think it makes sense to trade either Perdomo or Moreno to get a bunch of pieces back?
Sounds like payroll is about to go down, too. I don't think I would, with Burnes back and Pfaadt (perhaps) having turned a corner, I'd keep the core intact for another run.
In an effort for the Dbacks to get more pitching depth, do you think Tommy Troy for Karson Milbrandt makes sense for both sides?
If you were really confident that you could reliably get Millbrandt back into the strike zone, sure. But I don't know how you could be.
Rafe Perich. What's the fatal flaw?
I don't know if he has a fatal flaw, more that fringy defense and a power-over-hit skillset likely make him more of a supplementary fit than an everyday guy.
What are the top 1 or 2 things you would focus on if you were hired as the A's GM?
Figuring out what the altitudinal effects of the new park will look like and building a pitching plan around that from soup to nuts.
How likely is it that either Josuar or Walcott are the #1 prospect sometime next summer?
Josuar's time in that airspace is more likely in 2028
Do the Mets have a #1, #3, and #5 in McLean, Scott, and Thornton?
Good way to think of it. Maybe shorting Thornton a little bit.
When an athletic corner outfielder with well-above average sprint speed grades out well below average as a fielder, specifically from range, is the conclusion just "this guy takes bad routes because he misreads the ball?" Can you teach that? This question is about Dylan Beavers, but I feel like I see it often
That can be part of it. First step/acceleration comes into play too. This can get better with time and reps but some guys just have better instincts and reads than others.
Thanks for taking our queries!
You're welcome. I may have screwed something up in how I scheduled this, there aren't many folks in here today relative to most weeks. So, uh, good odds if you have a question…
Do you think Jefferson Rojas and Brayden Taylor contribute at the MLB level next year? Have them in an Ottoneu league
Fantasy is a little out of my realm but my instinct is that neither should be lynchpins of your 2027 plans.
Max Anderson breaks camp at the keystone in Detroit?
I would guess not. Re-signing Gleyber would make sense for them, but even if they keep it internal, I'd prioritize getting Lee in the lineup first.
Where are we at on Tai Peete? Stat wise it seems like he took a step forward with some help of a near .400 babip; was there any notable change to his set up or swing at the plate to go with it?
Spin has been the big issue with him. It still is but perhaps to a slightly lesser degree. This is a guy to stay patient with, if he hits, he'll hit big. Prospects move so quickly these days, he's one I'd continue to push slowly.
Names to watch in Fall and winter leagues? Maybe prospects who were hyped and then hurt and these will be the first looks at them in a minute
I'll have notes on a lot of these guys in the coming days but… Lot of pitchers match that description… Kannon Kemp, Braxton Bragg, Jake Bloss… I liked R.J. Sales yesterday, too. Among the hitters, Dax Kilby blew me away, Wyatt Sanford and Nathan Hall are really interesting. Tai Peete and Braylon Payne are fun/toolsy. Alex McCoy may hit one to Mars.
Any chance you'll be at tomorrow's Peoria/Glendale game? Curious about Patrick Reilly 50+ innings into his TJS return.
Back home, unfortunately. Perhaps Eric will be at the game…
Why didn’t Max Anderson get a shot down the stretch? Is the glove work an issue? Are they skeptical of the approach even though it’s worked so far? Issues against heat/spin?
I don't see him as an impact guy.
Get a chance to see Susana?
I did. Sat 101-103, low effort, which is a real thing I just typed. Pairs it with a low-mid 80s sweeper mostly, threw a couple harder breaking balls. He'll be high on the T100.
Should the A's stretch Luis Medina back out to be a starter? Or keep in him in the pen now that he's had some success?
Bullpen, I don't think he has the command to start, and the fastball plays down from the number.
What's the off-season scheduling look like? Odds and ends from the AFL and planning for the Top prospect lists?
I'll have a bunch of notes in the next week, they're long enough that we're planning to publish a few posts to stagger them. From there, Eric is working furiously on Asian players, we'll need to prepare a 2027 draft board, and of course lists, lists, lists. I'm 98.54% done with one list and 89.14% done with a second.
I'd also like to write a follow up to the pro scouting piece that ran at the end of September.
I know y'all got a lot on your plate but around when do you think an initial list will go on THE BOARD for the 2027 draft?
Eric and I talked about this when I was down in Phoenix. Before the start of the college season, late January or early February would be my guess.
Franklin Primera. Get excited or he just overpowered the level?
Little of both. Expecting him to be a 45+ this winter. Sneak peak on the conclusion: "While the hit tool is really exciting, Primera is not especially projectable, and we want to see how his swing and approach hold up against better pitching before we dive in with both feet. He’s the kind of player where, were I still scouting for a team, I’d write him up as an everyday player without hesitation, but from a valuation perspective, we think it behooves us to stay patient for a little while longer. "
First full healthy season from Farmelo. Anything unexpected from his performance?
Not really, was worried that the injuries might've taken a bite out of his speed, but fortunately that wasn't the case. Otherwise, showed the talent and the swing and miss you'd expect with his long swing. We'll see if better pitching forces an adjustment soon.
I get the impression that high/low effort on velocity is treated as quite important/valuable but I'm not sure I've seen analysis confirming that. I've seen HOF starters who look like they're max efforting all the time and I've seen middle reliever Andrew Kittredge casually throw 96 like he's in the backyard. Curious your thoughts. Does looking like you're not trying actually mean it's easy? Are our monkey brains just stuck on facial expressions as important identifiers?
Lot to unpack here. I generally but not always like lower effort because, in my experience at least, it correlates with better strike throwing and health. It's certainly not a 1:1 relationship with either. I don't recall where I read it, but Scherzer had a really insightful perspective on this, and on how he's been able to stay healthy even though he's a high effort guy because he's so strong and coordinated that he's able to pitch without over-stressing his arm.
For most of the non-freak athletes, it's really hard to put the ball where you want if you're trying to throw it as hard as you can.
What would an 80th percentile outcome on Logan Hughes look like?
Late career Joc with smoother peaks and valleys.
Among baseball writers, I've noticed that there's a lot of mention around IP as the proxy to measure SP workload in the minors and majors. I started thinking about this after noticing Brody Hopkins and Kendry Chourio pitched a similar number of innings despite Hopkins facing about 100 more batters (very different types of pitcher, obviously). Do you get the sense teams/scouts are using this proxy or is this more of a shorthand where they're measuring something else to get at the "load" on pitchers?
Shorthand. Teams have other ways to more precisely measure workload/stress.
What's for lunch?
Man, I just had breakfast, why so ambitious?
Following up from last chat; were you able to take a look at the Mariners lower minor starters? I know you were a bit interested in Bowery but there was also Reid Easterly and Scott Rouse. I know you were in AFL so not sure if you had a chance to look.
Sorry, next chat I got you.
Does Ralphy V win the starting 1B job in Cleveland on Opening Day? It feels like he doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA
Lot of variables, new CBA might have something to say about this. You will see him soon, whether it's Opening Day or not is subject to factors outside of his control/performance.
On talent, he could do it.
Has Hagen Smith showed anything in his cup of coffee that makes you think he’s more likely to be a starter long term?
No, strengths — awesome stuff — and weaknesses — below average control — in his game have long been apparent and we're seeing them these playoffs.
Ethan Anderson is the #2 C behind Basallo by August 2027?
I think Anderson and Willems both are better fits as third catchers than traditional backups. Particularly with Basallo around, who you may not want to catch everyday anyway, I think BAL would prefer to have a better defender as the backup. But that's speculation.
What does Tyler Bremner need to work on to keep moving up and be an effective SP with the Angels,
Needs a better breaking ball.
Any new rumors about whether and when there will be an R5 draft? Have you heard of any teams drawing a meaningfully different line than in most seasons?
Haven't done any true reporting on this, but the scouts I sat with weren't optimistic.
Caden Bodine is catching MLB games by June?
Sure, why not.
Any plans to add a scouting report to Yostin Pena?
Yes he'll get an extended writeup when we do NYY. I suspect they'll be fairly early in the list cycle.
I’ve read that the yankees’ terrible fundamentals permeate their whole system down through the minors. Is that what you’ve seen, and how long would it take to address? Years?
It does, they're really sloppy. In theory it could be a fairly quick fix.
Do the Tigers give Valencia 400 at bats next year? That was quite an impressive debut but he's 26 not 23. Also, do the Angels let Nelson Rada take over CF for most of the year?
He's a tricky one to plan around, because the approach is aggressive/exploitable and you don't want to go into the year with him as a starter and have no Plan B. At the same time, he can be both really flawed and a lot worse next year… and still be a guy you want to give 500+ PA's anyway. So, yes, tentatively.
As for the second question, this depends as much on how they want to man-manage Trout as it does on Rada's talent. I suspect, one way or the other, he'll play out there plenty. You might have to wait a bit for him to be the everyday guy.
What do you attribute it to? Is it a question of the players they acquire or a lack of coaching emphasis? It’s bizarre to me that it’s such a glaring embarrassment on their big league squad and they’ve never done anything to correct it in their system
This is a follow up to the Yankees question… Probably a little bit of both? It's not like any of the players or coaches want to see errors or whatnot. But, clearly there's an apparatus where both the acquisition groups and the coaching/dev staffs are willing to live with it if the guy can otherwise play.
Do you have any insight on how teams decide who is going to play in the AFL? Thinking of a guy like Braden Nett who could seemingly use some extra innings due to time on IL this year compared to Kenya Huggins who had mostly a full season.
Varies from team to team. Some see it as a valuable place to get innings/extra AB's, others couldn't care less and send a bunch of orgs to fill out a roster.
I will say: If I was a player, I don't know if I'd want to go to the AFL. The atmosphere in the park is lethargic, the competition is just okay, a lot of the players/coaches don't want to be there, some of the rule experiments might be frustrating… It's not for everybody.
Any idea why Milbrandt had issues throwing strikes in AAA? 64.4% strike rate in AA down to 57.4% in AAA. That's a huge decline. Was it issues getting acclimated to the different ball?
I would just be speculating. The ball is a common issue for guys jumping to AAA. Both because they're developing feel for it but also because some guys don't get nearly the same movement and batters don't chase to the same degree.
There was a funny question in the Red Sox post mortem press conference–a reporter asked Craig Breslow if he would draft Craig Breslow (I think the implication would be that, as an analytics/Driveline guy, he only cares about velocity and spin). Breslow averred that he would–that he would recognize himself as someone with the ability to induce weak contact, regardless of the approach. But Breslow was drafted in teh 26th round (which I don't think still exists?)–how would, in fact, a guy like that, an ivy league LOOGY type with unimpressive velo. fare today? Would anyone draft Craig Breslow?
With the caveat that I have only the vaguest feel for what Breslow's game looked like in college… He probably had some kind of standout or outlier trait, whether it was command, deception, changeup quality, I don't know. With his arm strength, it's hard to imagine he'd have been selected early, and while he might've been someone that would get taken in the 12th or 18th round today, it's possible he wouldn't be selected at all. Obviously, I think, the shorter draft and quicker development trajectory are filtering out guys who would develop into big leaguers in another context.
Would be curious to hear any AFL thoughts on Flewelling. I thought it odd Tampa would send a young catcher coming off a full season.
He looked good, only saw him play one game, but liked the approach and swing. Personally, I'd take him over Bodine.
Brock Wilken. Is there still hope?
Maybe as a bench bat.
What's your take on players who far exceed expectations in their rookie seasons and then fall back to being replacement-ish? Did the league adjust? Did they just start on a favorable part of the random walk? As a Nats fan, I'm specifically looking at Parker and Irvin and worrying about Alvarez.
Sometimes the league adjusts, sometimes guys are able to execute their stuff for a stretch in a way that they can't over the long haul.
Bold prediction: Boston fans throw something/one in the harbor if Arias isn't at the 6 on day one.
Every fanbase has its overreactors…
Any thoughts from Michael Arroyo's cup of coffee in the majors this year? Chance to be a regular next year?
Didn't play much, unfortunately, bizarre that the M's gave Weston Wilson so many AB's down the stretch. When he did play, he kept on doing the same things he's always done…
Do you have prospects you can't contain your excitement about or has your career taught you to stay relatively 'flat' and wait for things to play out thru the minors?
I enjoy the journey.
Cardinals brass reported they're going to have Rainiel start working 3b into the mix for him this offseason. If he takes to the position, would it move him up or down the rankings?
Steady.
Any big takeaways from your first (nearly) full year working here?
Nothing earth shattering. There are a lot of people within the game who read this stuff… I like being able to cover the game globally and write things like the Brandon Valenzuela re-eval and (especially) the pro scouting piece…
Anyone down in Arizona who looks like the next Jonah Tong?
GDI.
Joseph Dzwiera is in the BAL rotation by mid-season?
I suspect he'll get a look by that point, at least…
Nelson Rada? Raudi Rodriguez is the stud and he'll come off the top rope to remind you if need be! Lol
– glances at Angels Roster Resource – There's… room for both of them.
Think I'm going to shut it down here today. Thanks as always for stopping by, I'll be back in the normal Tuesday window again next week. Enjoy the postseason and see you soon.
Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Thanks for the honest AFL assessment Brendan. Much of what you said (lack of atmospheric intensity, many players bit really wanting to be there) has been my instinct.
I’d hate to see what a Yankee or Boston “overreactor” would look like given the baseline there.